NEW DELHI: It may sound utopian in the backdrop of months-long downslide on bourses, but a US-based equity research group sees India's benchmark
This would mean an unimaginable rally of over 10-times from the level seen just a few days ago, when Sensex was toiling below 10,000-point mark after a meltdown that began more than a year ago.
The Sensex had more than halved to trade below 8,000-point mark in October last year after scaling a record high of over 21,000 points on January 10, 2008.
Unperturbed by the sharp fall, US-based global equity research group Elliott Wave International, which specialises in analysis of technical charts of stock movements, believes that the recent surge in Indian market is the beginning of a long-running bull cycle that could continue for 15 years.
The recent upsurge began on March 9 and the Sensex has gained over 2,500 points or by more than 30 per cent.
"If the price and time proportions between the waves in the 2003-2008 rally continue, the Sensex should hit 100,000 in about 15 years," research group's Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski told PTI over phone.
In its report for Asia-Pacific markets, based on analysis of technical charts, Elliottt Wave has said there were strong indications of "a resumption of the bull market in Indian stocks".
Extending its previous analysis in November last year, when it had said the Sensex might continue advancing for 15 years before the end of another bull run, Elliott Wave said the market seemed to have completed its most recent downward spiral in October 2008.
The Indian stock market benchmark Sensex had scaled an all-time high of 21,206.77 points on January 10, 2008 before embarking on a downward journey, wherein it touched a low of 7,697.39 points on October 27.
According to the Elliot Wave's April forecast report, the Sensex has declined in three waves to the October low, where it retraced approximately 50 per cent of its 2003-08 rally on a percentage basis.
The index has just broken out of its downward trend channel and the patterns seen recently and during the 2003-04 period "are the best argument for a resumption of the bull market in Indian stocks," it added.
Naming India among the "potential baby bulls" of the region, alongside Taiwan and Korea, Elliott Wave had said the completion of three waves of fall from their respective highs had made them "strong candidates to rally back to at least near their all-time highs -- if not beyond".
Elliottt Wave has also classified Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Australia as long-term bear markets, while the "potential baby bulls" have been described as those which investors should consider for long-term investments.
The report further noted that India had experienced long- running bearish phase in the past, indicating that the next bull-run could continue beyond its most recent all-time high levels.
Until the early 2000s, the long bear market in India lasted for 11 years (1992-2003).
"The five-wave pattern from 2003-08 is a road map to the future. Elliott waves progress in five waves and correct in three waves," research group's Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski said.
28 April 2009
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