28 November 2010

Market Reports




TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Market's fate hanging in balance
 Irrationality was to the fore once again last week, this time sending stocks spinning down a deep chasm. Any stock with a real-estate and banking tag or remotely connected with the so called ‘loans for bribes' scam was battered out ...


IPOS:
MOIL India — IPO: Invest at cut-off
Investors could consider applying to the IPO of Indian manganese producer MOIL India, which appears attractively priced given its quality ore reserves, low operating costs and booming domestic market. At the higher end of the offer price ... 




PUBLIC OFFER:
The Shipping Corporation of India – FPO: Invest
Investors with a long-term perspective of at least two-three years can consider applying at cut off in the follow-on public offer (FPO) of The Shipping Corporation of India (SCI), the country's largest shipper (35 per cent share) in terms ... 



STOCKS:
Everest Kanto Cylinder: Buy
Investors can consider phased exposure to the stock of Everest Kanto Cylinder, a high pressure cylinder manufacturer. At the current price of 97, the stock trades at 11 times its expected consolidated per share earnings for FY-12. The jum


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner — Aurobindo Pharma reversing from life-time high
Could you please outline the medium and long-term outlook of Indian Overseas Bank? ... 



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 962.5)
RIL declined 3.4 per cent last week, continuing its short-term downtrend. In line with our expectation, it has slipped below an important support level of Rs 990 and is heading towards our initial price target of Rs 950, which is ...



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling stocks: LIC Housing Finance (Rs 932.1)
LIC Housing Finance that was at the eye of the ongoing scam plunged 28 per cent last week. Moreover, it has plunged 30 per cent so far in November. The stock's long-term up trendline that was in tact since March 2009 low of Rs 178, ...



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Consider shorting PowerGrid, IDFC
The outlook for PowerGrid has turned negative. As long as PowerGrid rules below Rs 109, it would face stiff resistance. The stock finds an immediate resistance at Rs 103 and support at Rs 95. A close below Rs 95 could weaken it to Rs 84 ... 



 Sizzling stocks: LIC Housing Finance (Rs 932.1)



LIC Housing Finance that was at the eye of the ongoing scam plunged 28 per cent last week. Moreover, it has plunged 30 per cent so far in November. The stock's long-term up trendline that was in tact since March 2009 low of Rs 178, was decisively broken last week. After recording an all-time high of Rs 1,496 on September 29, the stock changed direction triggered by negative divergence displayed in the daily relative strength index. Since then, it has been on a medium-term downtrend.

While declining, it breached a key support at Rs 1,300 by tumbling 18 per cent on November 24 with good volume. The stock is hovering well below its 50 and 200-day moving averages. It is, however, trading just above significant long-term support level at Rs 900. 
The daily indicators have entered oversold territories and the stock is hovering well below the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands implying oversold state, a minor corrective rally is possible up to Rs 1,000 or Rs 1,060 in the near-term.
Key resistance above Rs 1,060 is at 1,200. Strong move above Rs 1,250 is required to mitigate the downtrend. Conclusive weekly close below Rs 900 will pull the stock lower to Rs 800 and then to Rs 700 in the medium-term.  


HCC (Rs 40.1) 
The Hindustan Construction Company stock too collapsed last week, declining 29 per cent. From January 2010 peak of Rs 81, the stock has been on an intermediate-term downtrend, which accelerated last week. It broke through the long-term support at Rs 50 in the previous week and is hovering well below its 200 and 50-day moving averages. However, the stock is currently testing its longer-term key support around Rs 40. Strong breakthrough of this support will drag the stock down to its immediate support at Rs 35 and next at Rs 20 in the medium-term. A rebound from the support can be a corrective up move and lift the stock higher to Rs 45 and then Rs 50. As long as it trades below Rs 67, the intermediate-term downtrend remains in place. — Yoganand D.




















Src: Myiris, NCP blog, Businessline and etc

27 November 2010

SENSEX = KOREAS WARLIKE SITUATION + LIC HSG SCAM

Sensex continues to bleed on loan scandal

 

MUMBAI: A benchmark index of Indian equities markets shed 449 points this week, taking the last three weeks' loss to 1,868 points as 2G spectrum allocation scan and housing loan bribery scandal dampened sentiments and weighed heavy on the markets.

The 30-share sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) declined 2.29 percent or 448.83 points to 19,136.61 points in the weekly trade.

Indian equity markets have closed deep in the red for the third straight week. The benchmark Sensex shed 1,868 points from its all-time closing high of 21,004.96 points reached on special Diwali trading session Nov 5.

At the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the 50-share S&P CNX Nifty ended at 5,751.95 points, down 2.63 percent in this week's trade.

Nifty has declined 560 points from its all-time closing high of 6,312.45 points touched on Muhurat trading (a special session meant to pay obeisance to Goddess Lakshmi - the Hindu deity of wealth and prosperity) Nov 5.

A series of scams weighed heavy on the markets. The country's official audit agency Comptroller and Audit General said early this month the telecom minister arbitrarily allocated 2G spectrum licences, resulting in a loss of thousands of crores of rupees to the government exchequer.

The CBI Wednesday arrested senior officials from LIC Housing Finance , LIC, Bank of India, Central Bank of India and Punjab National Bank for allegedly accepting bribes to extend loans to realty companies.

Also on the CBI's scanner are a number of realty companies which were beneficiaries of such loans.

As a result, realty stocks were hammered this week.

All the sectoral indices also closed deep in the red this week, led by a sharp plunge in realty stocks. The BSE Realty index dived nearly five percent Friday after the country's top investigative agenc, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), arrested senior officials of financial institutions and some real estate developers on bribary charges.

Selling pressure was across the board as 2,508 scrips closed in the red Friday, compared to only 485 stocks advancing, while 79 stocks were unchanged.

Major Sensex losers on the last trading day of the week, included Jaiprakash Associates , down 8.04 percent at Rs.105.75; Reliance Infra, down 6.59 percent at Rs.850.25; Reliance Com, down 5.51 percent at Rs.130.30; and Sterlite Industries , down 3.62 percent at Rs.161.

According to data available with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), foreign institutional investors sold scrips worth $116.6 million Friday.  

 ***********************************

 Bull market may end in 2-3 months: Shankar Sharma

 

Bear of the week: Stock that tumbled 30% in 3 days   


Src: ET and MC

25 November 2010

24 November 2010

Sensex ends 232 pts lower on housing finance scam

Housing scam: CBI arrests top officials of PSU banks, FIs

4

MUMBAI: The Central Bureau of India (CBI) on Wednesday arrested top officials from some leading PSU banks and public/private financial institutions. The CBI said that the officers of Bank of India, Central bank of India, Punjab National bank and LIC HF were receiving illegal gratification for facilitating loans. Executives at Money Matters were arrested for broking bribery deals . Five separate cases have been registered and investigations are on, the leading investigation agency said in a press conference. It hasn't put up a figure to the size of the scam.

The biggest arrests included the CEO of LIC Housing Finance. The CMD of Money Matters Rajesh Sharma was also arrested. Executives from PNB, Central Bank of India, Bank of India were arrested in these raids. Among other arrests were two executives at Money Matters.

Earlier in the day, shares of LIC Housing Finance plunged 18.32 per cent to Rs 1068.55 on the BSE. It touched a low of Rs 1031.10 in trade. Shares of Central Bank of India also tanked on the same issue. The scrip fell 8.02 per cent to Rs 197.90 on the BSE. It touched a low of Rs 191.40 in trade.

Shares of Money Matters Financial Services also faced selling pressure. The scrip tanked 19.99 per cent to intraday low of Rs 531.20 on the BSE on rumours of a raid. 











 













21 November 2010

BT 500: India's most valuable companies




The buzz is back - and the upswing in valuations is the best indicator of the turnaround in not just sentiment on the street but also of fortunes of corporate India. As the economy leaves most of the world behind and gets set to clock 8.5 per cent growth in the current financial year, India Inc. is riding a boom in increased domestic consumption even as it slowly but surely conquers new markets overseas.

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Investors, primarily of the foreign institutional variety, have sensed the upside. The overseas moneybags have pumped all of $23.5 billion into Indian equities in 2010. That is reflected in the growth in market capitalisation in the first half of the current financial year - which is what Business Today considers for its rankings.

The overall market value of the BT 500 companies is up smartly by 42 per cent; the 500 to 1,000 pack has made investors richer by 74 per cent, and the 50 companies in the public sector undertaking listing are more valuable by 23 per cent than a year ago. That's a smart recovery from the downturn of the previous study in 2009, when the top 500 lost 7.32 per cent in value and the second half of the list had 30 per cent of their wealth eroded.

 In numbers

Leading that resurgence are good old blue chips like Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Hindalco and Sterlite, which have benefited from 
robust growth in sales (of autos, for instance), and an upturn in prices of commodities like steel, aluminium and copper. Hindalco and Tata Steel also gained because investors are once again seeing brighter prospects for the big-ticket acquisitions made a few years ago - of Novelis in Canada and Corus, now renamed Tata Steel Europe, respectively. Tata Motors is also reaping the benefits of a pretty sensational turnaround in the performance of Jaguar and 
 
Land Rover, the two brands it had acquired from Ford Motor. Lower down the charts, relatively new-age sectors like aviation and organised retailing have kept investors busy, with SpiceJet and Shopper's Stop returning to the black.

The disappointments? Perhaps the biggest one is at the top of the heap: Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, which has traditionally been an investor favourite, has underperformed as investors are not confident about its ambitious expansion plans. Ditto with the companies in Anil Ambani's stable, which have to convince the street that they can execute mega-projects . The telecom pack, too, has come under pressure after nearly eight years of rahrah growth. That's reflected in another top-level shuffle, where Bharti Airtel has lost 24 per cent in value, and is down two places to No. 4, and the rest of our BT 500 features for more.

 Src: Businesstoday.in, RedHerring

Stock Reports -2



Who sold on Friday?

 

 

Thomas Cook: Institutional Radar

 

 

Eyes or Ears

 

 

 Diamond in NIFTY

 

 

UNITECH enters bear market 



Trading strategy for 3 buzzing stocks 

 

 

Pick of the Week - Nov 20 2010

 

 

5 Themes for 5 years

 

 

Pick of the Week: Dabur 



Grey Market Premiums - Nov 19 2010

 

 

BHEL looks weak-Avoid

 

Nifty Future Weekend Post

 

 

 

Src: NCP blog, TOT blog, AKP blog and SOM blog, MYiris etc

Stock Reports -1


 

STOCKS: J&K Bank: Buy
Fresh investments can be considered in the stock of J&K Bank, which is promoted by the Government of Jammu and Kashmir but has characteristics of a private bank. J&K Bank is a development finance institution in Jammu and Kashmir ...


STOCKS: Exide Industries: Buy
Investors with a two-to-three-year perspective can invest in Exide Industries. Robust demand for automotive batteries, capacity expansions, limited exposure to the telecom batteries segment and increased sourcing of raw material from ...



STOCKS: Kingfisher Airlines: Sell
Like its peers in the Indian aviation space, Kingfisher Airlines has been able to show improvement in performance metrics over the past few quarters, aided by an uptick in demand for air travel in the country. Also, the company has been ...


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook — Looking for a foothold
Global jitters continued to take their toll on Indian stock prices and yanked the Sensex below the 20,000 mark in the first half of the week. Even as other markets stabilised towards weekend on hopes that Ireland was moving towards a ... 



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals
Prolonging its correction, the stock tumbled 6 per cent last week. This fall has conclusively breached both its 50- and 200-day moving averages at Rs 1,045 and Rs 1,035 respectively, which were important supports. RIL is testing its next ...



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query corner: IDBI Bank reversing from all-time high
Please let me know the medium-term outlook of BL Kashyap and Sons bought at Rs 47. Kishore ...



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling Stocks
Unitech nose-dived 16 per cent, emphatically penetrating its 200-day moving average around Rs 80 and key intermediate-term support at Rs 75. The stock has completely retraced its previous up move that commenced from May low of Rs 65 that ended ... 


Foreign funds turn net sellers for first time in 25 weeks
















Src: Bramesh blog, ET, Businessline and etc

17 November 2010

Sensex crash: Dalal Street now faces trust deficit




MUMBAI: Derivative traders have become pessimistic about the prospects of the near-term market after the Nifty fell below the psychological 6000-mark on Tuesday.

“Option writers (sellers) have unwound their positions in 6000 put, which had the highest amount of open interest, implying weakness for the Nifty,” said Manoj Murlidharan, AVP-Derivatives, IIFL-PReMIA. “Investors should use any relief rally to exit their long positions,” he said.

The Nifty fell 133 points, or 2.2%, to 5988.70 on Tuesday, tracking weakness in global markets. Nifty November futures closed at a six-point premium to the spot as against 16 points on Monday, suggesting unwinding of long positions.

“This drop in premium was due to the spurt in short positions created in the system in the past two trading sessions. Earlier, institutions hedged their positions by buying Nifty futures due to which the premium was maintained, but, with the change in sentiment, investors have been selling heavily,” Mr Murlidharan said.

Foreign institutions have sold Nifty futures worth Rs 4,000 crore in the past five trading sessions and have written (sold) call options of 6100 and 6200 strikes, suggesting that the Nifty could find it tough to cross these levels.

While call options of 6200 and 6300 strikes saw over 81 lakh and 98 lakh units added in open interest, 6100 put saw heavy unwinding of positions as it shed more than 12 lakh units in open interest.

Traders expect the Nifty to correct till 5850-5875 levels as most of the stocks have witnessed delivery-based selling. Though the Nifty has found good support around 5980 in the past, traders remain wary this time.

The India Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of traders’ expectation of volatility, rose by 4.35% to close at 21.13%. Traders say that with only a few trading sessions remaining before the expiry of the current series, the volatility is expected to increase.

“If the global markets do not find support, the volatility will increase further below 6000 levels,” said Amit Gupta, Head-Derivatives, ICICI Securities .

He advised against creating fresh short positions at current levels. Traders should wait for a spike till the 6030-6050 levels, before short-selling again, he said.  
















 
 




Src: ECONOMICTIMES

15 November 2010

Morning Calls








NIFTY

 


Nifty Views

 

 

SPARC: Breakout in Shaky market

 

 

Should One Panic?

 

Check out which funds are up, down
ET Bureau 2 hours ago
Here, we take a closer look at the performance of various schemes during the September quarter.


Investors can consider investing in international funds but beware of the Rupee
Shailesh Menon 5 hours ago
Emerging markets account for about 50% of the world’s GDP and command a petty 8% weightage over world market cap with lots of potential upside.



Bull market on, long-term investments shouldn't be reduced
Deepak Mohoni 8 Nov 2010, 05:24
Purchases made in the last fortnight should start paying off now, as intermediate uptrend is on the way. The next opportunity to buy for the long term would be when an intermediate downtrend develops & runs for a week or more.



Corporate round up: Sobha Developers, Dabur
ET Bureau 8 Nov 2010, 05:18
SDL's total income rose 90% to Rs 427 crore that included a boost of Rs 114 crore from sale of land in Pune. Dabur reported healthy growth in September 2010 quarter and its net sales increased 14.7%.



US homebuyers headcount at historic lows
REUTERS 8 Nov 2010, 05:16
Two groups of people have been affected by lower mortgage rates. One is homebuyers whose numbers have shrunk to historic lows while the others are those refinancing their mortgages.



Views on Stocks: TATA Chemicals, JSW Energy
ET Bureau 8 Nov 2010, 05:14
Bank of America reiterates the `Underperform’ rating on Tata Chemicals . Tata Chemicals reported a disappointing quarter, with a 25% y-oy decline in recurring PAT.




Firstsource Solutions likely to perform well on new deals
Parul Bhatnagar 8 Nov 2010, 05:12
Firstsource Solutions is likely to perform well going forward on the back of new deals and an expected growth in global IT spend

 

 

 Src:ET, Mktcalls, SOM blog , Bramesh blog etc

 

 

14 November 2010

Stock Reports-2



INSIGHT: Time to bet on Indian steel?
Indian steel producers such as SAIL, JSW and Tata Steel have posted spectacular returns of 231, 685 and 315 per cent from the lows of early 2009. On an enterprise value-per-tonne basis, they currently trade at a premium of 45-100 per cent to ...



STOCKS: Cipla: Buy
Investments with at least a two-three year perspective can be considered in Cipla. The company's strong generic pipeline, entry into biosimilars and the likely commercialisation of CFC-free inhalers offer it a significant long-term ...



STOCKS: Nestle India: Book Profits
As a consistent performer within the fancied FMCG sector, the stock of Nestle India has soared over the past year. The stock's 45 per cent return in one year has helped it trounce the BSE FMCG index (up 31 per cent) and pushed the ...



STOCKS: Mphasis: Buy
Investors with a two-year horizon can buy the shares of Mphasis, a provider of ...



STOCKS: Zodiac Clothing Company: Book Profits
Zodiac Clothing Company is a retailer and exporter of premium menswear. At Rs 398, the stock trades at 28 times the trailing four-quarter earnings, on a par with peers such as Provogue India. The company has, however, put up a ...






TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals
RIL launched in to a vicious correction last week to decline 5 per cent from its intra-week peak of Rs 1,119. The short-term trend has reversed lower with the breach of Rs 1,060 level. Next support is at Rs 1,045. Presence of both the 50 ...


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling Stocks
It was an electrifying performance by Reliance Power last week. The stock initially soared on receiving credit worth $5 billion from the US Export Import Bank. The up-move accelerated on Thursday on the buzz about the company benefiting ...


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy — Consider shorting NTPC, IDBI
NTPC (Rs 192.2): The outlook for NTPC remains negative. The stock seems to have turned weak and could be headed towards Rs 175. There is however a crucial support at Rs 190. Its immediate resistance is at Rs 196. A close above Rs 196 has ...



STOCKS: 52-week loser: Bajaj Hindusthan
The stock of Bajaj Hindusthan has declined 42 per cent over the past year even as the broader market has posted gains. The reversal in the fortunes of the sugar sector and the loss of market fancy for the sector depressed all sugar stocks, ...
  


Blockbuster of the week: S.E. Investments
S.E. Investments (SEIL), a non-banking finance company which has exposure to high yielding micro-finance and SME segments, delivered a return of 349 per cent over the last one year. SEIL also operates a 3.2-MW wind energy plant in Rajasthan ... 















Src: HinduBusinessline and Myiris