20 June 2010

Market and Stock Views

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Bear-squeeze can extend the rally
The Sensex recorded a strong 500-points gain last week. But this move went almost unnoticed since market participants were busy tracking the two Reliance factions and speculating over their next move. The Ambani charisma was on display yet ...

STOCKS: Aurobindo Pharma: Buy
Long-term investments can be considered in the stock of Aurobindo Pharma, a leading API (active pharmaceutical ingredient) and ...

STOCKS: GAIL (India): Buy
Investors with a high-risk appetite can consider buying the stock of GAIL (India), the country's predominant natural gas transmission and ...

STOCKS: HDIL: Buy
The renewed fortunes of the Transferable Development Rights (TDR) market, coupled with HDIL's steady progress in its slum rehabilitation and residential projects add impetus to the company's ...

STOCKS: Pratibha Industries: Buy
Investors with a penchant for risk and a medium-term perspective can buy the stock of construction and infrastructure company Pratibha Industries. At Rs 380, the stock trades at 11.4 times per share earnings for FY-10. Valuations are at ...

MUTUAL FUNDS: HDFC Growth: Invest
Investors can buy the units of HDFC Growth Fund, given the fund's track record in delivering steady returns over the long term. The fund has consistently outperformed its benchmark, the Sensex, over one-, three- and ...

MUTUAL FUNDS: ICICI Pru Child Care Study Plan: Invest
Conservative investors who intend to build a sufficient corpus for their child's education can continue to hold on to ICICI Prudential Child Care-Study plan, an open-ended hybrid fund with a maximum allocation of 25 per cent in equity. The ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner: MTNL in long-term downtrend
I bought MIC Electronics at Rs 46. Please advise short-, medium- and long-term prospects of the stock. R. Chandran, Sunil K. Jha, Suresh, ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 1,055.2)
RIL edged higher ahead of its annual general meeting to record the intra-week peak of Rs 1,089.9. But it declined thereafter to close the session 3 per cent lower from its intra-day peak. The stock has key short-term resistance at Rs 1,096. ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling stocks: RNRL (Rs 62.7)
All eyes in the market were riveted on RNRL last week as the stock zoomed to the high of Rs 70.2. Expectation of an announcement in the RIL's annual general meeting about RIL buying a stake in RNRL at a high price was the ostensible reason ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Consider short straddle on Reliance Industries
Reliance Industries (Rs 1,058.1): For more than three months, the stock has been moving in a narrow band between Rs 960-1,140. It is unlikely to break this band in the near term. Only a move away from this zone will make a clear trend for ...

STOCK MARKETS: Heard in the studio
The folks at the Studio were on their toes the past week too. Here's some of the chatter we caugh


Irda wins Ulip battle

Capital gains tax: There's still hope



Wkly Tech Analysis: Further strength above 5300

The markets moved from strength to strength for most part of the week before witnessing some profit-taking on Friday. The fact that the Sensex was able to cross 17,300 with ease signals more hope for the bulls. The 17,300-level can now be watched as a support for the current upmove. On the upside, the index is likely to target 18,000-18,300 in the coming sessions.

This week, the Sensex finished with a gain of 506 points to 17,571. DLF led the gainers, up nearly 8 per cent at Rs 282. Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Communications and Sterlite rallied 7 per cent each. Infosys, Jindal Steel, ITC, Jaiprakash Associates, Tata Motors and HDFC were the other major gainers. Bharti Airtel, however, shed 3.5 per cent to Rs 265.


Next week, the Sensex is likely to face resistance around 17,800-17,870-17,945. On the downside, the index is likely to seek support around 17,340-17,270-17,195. Daily charts indicate near support around 17,480 (20-day daily moving average) and far off support around 17,021 on the weekly charts.

The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 182 points. From a low of 5,120, the index rallied to a high of 5,302, and finally settled with a gain of 143 points at 5,263.

Given the recovery in the world markets and renewed optimism among global investors, the bias continues to be positive. However, one needs to watch out for negative surprises in the form of either a surprise RBI rate action or poor monsoon for a change in bias.

The Nifty has been treading higher with support along its short-term (20-days DMA, or daily moving average), which is currently at 5,238. If the index breaks it, it could probably test its next significant support around 5,183. On the upside, the Nifty needs to close above the 5,300-mark for further strength.

From a medium-term perspective, the Nifty has considerable support around 5,100, and the upside target could be close to 5,400.


Two rocket stocks

Profit Track

18 June 2010

Oriental Carbon and Chemicals:
DOCCL has reported excellent results for year ended March 2010 wherein its PAT has zoomed by nearly 300%. EPS for Q4 alone is Rs 10. Stock is trading at just 4.62XFy10 EPS which is extremely low considering that OCCL is operating in a seller's market.

Further, OCCL has started implementation of new factory in SEZ in Gujarat which should be completed in 12 months. OCCL may achieve EPS of Rs 36-38 in 2010-11 and EPS of Rs 42-44 in 2011-12. Although, share price has touched a new high, still fundamentally OCCL is underpriced considering that company will continue to do well due to buoyant demand from tyre industry, expansion underway and payment of 3 dividends in 2009-10. Book Value is Rs 90 which should rise to above Rs 120/ as on March 2011.

Our price target Rs 175 in less than 6 months and investors holding it for medium term may get much higher appreciation.

Nahar Spinning Mills
Nahar has achieved phenomenal turnaround in 2009-10 wherein Nahar has achieved PAT of 53.49 cr and CASH Profit of Rs 123 cr (after paying income tax of Rs 27 cr). At PBT level, Nahar has achieved turnaround of Rs 105 cr as its PBT in 2009-10 stands at 80.60 cr as against loss of 25 cr in previous year.

Nahar is likely to earn Cash Profit of Rs 265-270 cr in 2 years (09-10 and 10-11) and current market cap is just Rs 290 crores. One of the top picks in booming textile sector. Investors may reap more than 50% appreciation in next few months. Scrip can even double in 12-15 months.

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Src: Businessline, Valuenotes and etc