26 July 2010

Technical calls for the Week

26 Jul 2010 | 08:07
Recommended Action for State Bank of India is Buy on dips & for Bharat Electronics, Wockhardt Ltd is...





My Favorite Market Blogs


Few of My Best and Favorite Market Related Web Blogs/Websites. I always look these blogs for investing and trading. Simply super. Some offers Premium services. These are Few of My Blogs I Regularly Follows. I request all the investors and traders use these sites for investing.

















25 July 2010

Market Outlook: RIL Result, RBI Meet eyed



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Action-packed week ahead
It was one of those rare weeks in which index movement went almost unnoticed. Changes in takeover code and new GST system hogged the headlines along with the first quarter earnings, keeping the attention of market participants riveted. The ...

STOCKS: BHEL: Buy
Investment Focus. Bharat Heavy Electrical's (BHEL's) strong footing in the power equipment space has not come under much threat despite domestic and foreign competition. Combined with a strong order book and robust financials, BHEL's earnings ...

PUBLIC OFFER: Engineers India — FPO: Invest
The high-end engineering, design and consulting business of Engineers India is not only unique but also lucrative given its presence in the hydrocarbon space. Earnings growth of 38 per cent compounded annually over the last three years, a ...

STOCKS: Sesa Goa: Book profits
Iron ore major Sesa Goa appears to be a risky play in the metals space considering the uncertain outlook on iron ore realisations and demand from the export market. The company's reliance on the Chinese market, where iron ore prices and ...

STOCKS: Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (India): Buy
Investors with an appetite for risk can consider investing in the stock of Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (India) at the current price of Rs 337. The stock, though at a high now, offers scope for gains in the medium term given the pace ...

IPOS: SKS Microfinance IPO: Invest
Investors with a high risk appetite can consider subscribing to the Initial Public Offer (IPO) of SKS Microfinance, one of the largest microfinance NBFCs .

24 July 2010

Stock and Market Views


LONDON/MADRID: Seven European banks would not be strong enough to withstand another recession and would face a capital shortfall of 3.5 billion euros ($4.5 billion), tests run in an attempt to revive investor confidence showed on Friday.

Five of Spain's smaller regional lenders, known as cajas, failed the test and their recapitalisation is likely to speed a restructuring of the troubled sector.

Banks in Germany and Greece were also seen as weak spots and in need of restructuring, but state-owned Hypo Real Estate was the only German lender to flunk and state-controlled ATEbank was the only Greek bank to fail.

Analysts had expected five to 10 banks to fail the test. As expected, no big banks failed the health check. German government bond futures hit one-month lows and the euro briefly pared its losses against the dollar after the results were released.

Europe tested how 91 banks would cope with another recession and losses on government debt after the Greek crisis hit markets and raised fears the euro zone could unravel. It aimed to repeat a health check on US banks last year that helped restore investor confidence and underpinned a recovery by bank shares.











23 July 2010

India to become a $5 trillion economy soon


AGPUR: US Consul General Paul Folmsbee on Friday said that the Indian economy has the potential to grow further and is likely to touch the $5 trillion mark in the near future.

"The Indian economy is growing fast and from the present $1.2 trillion, it is expected to become a $5-trillion economy very soon," Folmsbee, said without specifying a particular time frame while addressing management students at G S College of Commerce here.

The Consul General, who was in the city today for a seminar on 'Indo-US relations' also emphasised on the need for both countries to focus on vital issues like energy crisis, technology transfer, climate change, higher education and small as well as medium enterprises.

On the higher education scenario, particularly at the University level, Folmsbee said many US varsities were in the process of setting up their establishments in the country with Columbia University already establishing its institution in Mumbai.

On his first visit to the orange city, Folmsbee said he was here to study the issues of regional interest.









NEW DELHI: Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Steel may sell about 14 per cent stake to Japan's JFE for Rs 4,700 crore to cut the company's debt.

"Talks between the two companies for stake sale have more or less concluded. JSW Steel may sell around 14 per cent stake to JFE," a source in the know of the development said.

News Round-Up













Daily News Roundup - July 23 2010

 

Earning reports fuel strong rally at Wall Street

 

PNB

 

United Spirits

 

Src: ET and DP blog and Smartinvestor.in

 

20 July 2010

Stock Calls


Ramsarup hits circuit as Arcelor seen circling

Shares of Kolkata-based Ramsarup Industries were frozen at its daily maximum permissible trading limit of 20% on speculation that ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, is close to buying a stake in the company. The stock, which has risen close to 30% in a week, closed at Rs 102.1. The buzz is that Arcelor is likely to buy the stake at Rs 120 apiece. A senior Ramsarup official declined to comment. Market sources said the deal is likely to be structured, with ArcelorMittal having an option to raise its minority stake in the company later. The company will get an infusion of about Rs 1,000 crore by way of partly convertible debentures shortly, according to a person in the know. The instrument will be converted into equity shares in future.


Inox gains 15% on stake sale speculation


Shares of Inox Leisure rose 14.7% to Rs 74.75 on speculation the Anil Ambani group is in talks to buy a stake in the company. Denying the talk, Deepak Asher, director of Inox Leisure, said, “The speculation is baseless.” An Anil Ambani group spokesperson declined comment. According to a market source, in this deal, Inox will be valued at Rs 400 crore. The promoters of Inox Leisure are locked in a takeover battle with Anil Ambani’s Reliance MediaWorks (RMW) to acquire Fame India. Inox bought Fame promoters’ 43% stake in the company for Rs 44 a share in early March and subsequentl

19 July 2010

Stock Picks from Various sources

19 Jul 2010 | 15:07
Recommended Action for Pantaloons Retail, Vijaya Bank & BRFL is Buy
 
 
 
19 Jul 2010 | 17:07
List of companies that have announced dividends for FY10
 
 
19 Jul 2010 | 11:07
MIL is amongst the few players in the organized segment of packaging industry
 
 
 
 
Src: HDFCSEc, Smartinvestor.in
 
 
 
 

Morning calls

 
 
More upside left for FMCG and pharma stocks
19 Jul 2010, 0755 hrs IST, Jwalit Vyas & Krishna Kant
Stock prices of FMCG and pharma cos are believed to be overheated. However, the majority of these defensive stocks are still fairly valued and quite a few of them look cheaper than their historic valuations. An ET Investor's Guide analysis shows there is more upside left for them.


UR Bhat, MD, Dalton Capital Advisors spoke to ET Now on IT companies, various stocks and markets.


Use dips to buy into OMCs: Rajesh Jain
16 Jul 2010, 1707 hrs IST
Rajesh Jain, Market Strategist in an interview with ET Now talks about OMCs.


 4 prospective midcap steel cos from Angel Broking 
 

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Verge of Break out

YES Bank cmp 299 : Possible Upside after facing lot of resistance at current levels. Good upside expected if breaks 300-310.


Orchid Chem (188): Possible Upside after facing lot of resistance at current levels. Good upside expected if breaks 194-200 levels.
 
 
 
Src: ET, Myiris and etc 
 

18 July 2010

Stock Views 2


IDBI Bank

 

UTV Software Communications

 

Union Bank of India

 

Sun Pharma

 

Tata Consultancy Services

 

Stock and Market Views

Both the Nifty and the Sensex recorded 29-month highs last week. But there was not a single celebratory beep from the market. This cynical attitude is hardly surprising given the numerous attempts made by the benchmark to ‘break out' ...

Investors with a two-year horizon can buy the shares of Wipro, a leading software services and hardware player, given the revival in volumes (person-months billed) in its IT services business and strengthening domestic presence (IT products) ...

Investments with a one-two year time horizon can be considered in the stock of Punjab National Bank (PNB), as the bank despite its size, holds strong growth prospects. The overall pick-up in credit growth augurs well for PNB, which has ...

Disappointing results over several quarters and the sharp run-up in the stock of ABB after the announcement of an open offer, have resulted in the stock trading at very steep valuations, far higher than peers and not supported by ...

The stock of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), the government-controlled downstream oil refining and marketing major, has run up sharply since the fuel pricing reform measures late ...


Investors with a high appetite for risk and a two-three year perspective may buy the stock of Simplex Infrastructures, a diversified construction contractor. Our previous buys on this stock were at Rs 137 in January 2009 and at Rs 415 ...

Results so far have only managed to pleasantly surprise the markets. While there is no telling what the next week's result announcements would entail, trends in index option trading hint at a range-bound market. Most of the open interest ...


16 July 2010

Morning views


Insurance Big Daddy turns seller in index stocks
THE Big Daddy of insurance has been a seller in the index stocks in the past one week, keeping up to its reputation of being a seller in a rising market and a buyer in a falling market. Brokers said they have received selling orders from the Big Daddy in large numbers of late, mainly in oil & gas, banks and auto shares. In the past week or so, the institution has been a seller in SBI. But the buzz is, it has been a buyer in select mid-cap bank stocks.

FIs make a beeline for LIC Housing, stock up 7%
SHARES of LIC Housing Finance rose 7% to a 52-week high of Rs 1,073.40 supported by heavy volumes in a subdued trading session on Thursday. According to dealers, domestic mutual funds and select FIIs were heavy buyers after the company posted better-than-expected quarterly numbers. They said fund managers have been buying housing finance companies of late, mostly for trading gains. Some analysts are cautious about the outlook of housing finance companies, as firming interest rates are expected to raise their borrowing costs, thereby affecting margins.

Oil cos tank as govt fails to free up diesel prices
SHARES of state-owned oil marketers HPCL and BPCL crashed 6% on Thursday after the government said it will not deregulate diesel prices. The sudden about-turn in fuel policy has caught most Dalal Street stalwarts on the wrong foot. All these players had bought huge chunks of these stocks over the past couple of weeks, convinced that the sector was due for re-rating. The top guns who are long on HPCL, BPCL and IOC include the Rar(e)ing Bull, Old Fox, the high-profile second-in-command at a listed broking firm and a suave broker who shares his surname with the Old Fox. The problem now is that most of the top names are bullish on these stocks. So if they turn bearish, who are they going to sell their holdings to?

Godrej Properties bucks downtrend in realty stocks
AT A time when most property stocks are being cold-shouldered by fund managers as well as market operators, Godrej Properties hit a record high of Rs 691.40 on Thursday. Dealers tracking the counter say there is good interest in the stock, but at the same time, they point out that low liquidity is having a multiplier effect on the share price. A suave BSE broker, who shares his surname with the Old Fox, is said to be one of the big buyers of the stock.

(Contributed by Harish Rao & Santosh Nair)

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India picks Rupee symbol to rival the €£¥$ For those of us still fumbling to find the € symbol on our keyboards, today was a bad news day. Computer and mobile keyboards in India (and possibly around the globe) will soon be adding another new button – the rupee key.


Piramal Healthcare

 

Maruti Suzuki

 

Voltamp Transformers, HDFC, Infotech Enterprises, Bajaj Auto

 

TCS - Strong Results

 

Colgate - Rich Valuations

 

Axis Bank

 

Daily Market Outlook - July 16 2010

 

Market View - July 16 2010

 

 

Src: ET, Smartinvestor, DP blog and etc

15 July 2010

Is it Possible????Dow Headed to 5000 -Charles Nenner Says



Get Out While You Can! Dow Headed to 5000, Charles Nenner Says

Posted Jul 15, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing
Enjoy the recent stock market rally while it lasts. Market forecaster Charles Nenner tells Tech Ticker stocks will peak in about a month and then head south for the year.
“After late August I expect the market to go down again,” and eventually test the March 2009 lows in the next few years, he says on the phone from Israel. Therefore, long-term investors would be wise to use this rally as an opportunity to get out of stocks. “I see this as a bear market rally,” he says comparing the U.S. market to Japan – a prolonged bear market with wild fluctuations.
Until the end of August, stocks will trade in a tight range, he predicts. His near term upside target is 1155 on the S&P 500, but that’s only if it first breaks 1100. If the market finds resistance and closes below 1085, it could spell trouble.
It’s worth paying attention to Nenner's warning. As Seeking Alpha contributor Cliff Wachtel points out, Nenner has a pretty good track record with his recent calls:
• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.
• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.
• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.
His advice for the average investor: “You don't want to get in the market,” he says. “For the next couple of years, just be happy if you don’t lose money.”
When will it be safe to go back in the water? Not until the market experiences a lot more pain, he forecasts. Don’t bet on stocks for the long haul, “until you get below 7000. And preferably if you wait till 5000, which is my downside target on the Dow Jones.”
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Other articles





Q1 Results:  http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Company/Earnings/earnings/75410.cms


Src:ET and Yahoo finance

Morning calls

 Revved up for robust growth







 


  
Tata Communications rises on global JV talk
Shares of Tata Communications rose 2.8% to Rs 289.20 on Wednesday in a weak market on speculation the company is close to announcing a joint venture deal with a global telecom player. The market buzz is that the deal is likely to be announced by this weekend. The stock’s rally also fanned a rumour that the path has been paved for Tata Communications to sell its surplus 770- acre land. The “value-unlocking” story of the company’s land has been attributed for any rise in the stock in the past. Brokers said the move can help the company retire debt and also benefit minority shareholders. The stock, which has risen around 5% in the past two days, has largely underperformed the market this year.

14 July 2010

Stock and Market views

Bullish Outlook on DCHL, Hexaware
IDFC
Current Price: Rs 189.5
Target Price: Rs 195
The stock has seen a V-shaped surge from a recent bottom around Rs 140. It has developed very strong volume action in the past couple of sessions. The target on this formation should be about Rs 195 and it could go further. Keep a stop at Rs 185 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 192 and Rs 194, and reset the stop-loss to Rs 190. Start booking profits above Rs 195. If you can hold for three sessions, set a target of Rs 205-210.

TCS
Current Price: Rs 775
Target Price: Rs 760
The stock has seen heavy selling and this trend could continue. It has a three-session target of around Rs 745, but there is support at Rs 760, where the scrip should rest today. Keep a stop at Rs 780 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 769 and Rs 771. Below Rs 762, start booking profits. If you want to hold an "overnight", keep a target of Rs 745 and a stop-loss at Rs 770.
The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next one trading session unless otherwise stated


13 July 2010

Infosys Q1 net falls 2.6 per cent at Rs 1490 crore, raises annual outlook

Infosys Q1 net falls 2.6 per cent at Rs 1490 crore, raises annual outlook


BANGALORE: Infosys Technologies edged up its forecast on a revival in outsourcing demand from its mainstay financial clients, but its shares fell as markets worried a weak European economy could curb orders. India's No. 2 outsourcer reported a surprise 2.6 percent drop in April-June profit and its sales contribution from Europe fell to about 20 percent from nearly 25 percent a year ago and 23 percent in January-March. ( Watch )

The company, a trendsetter in the country's showpiece IT services sector, added 1,026 staff in April-June, with a total of 115,000 employees in June its slowest pace of addition in four quarters. The lower-than-expected profit and hiring triggered concerns of a slowdown in growth, sending its shares 2.8 percent lower in a flat market. The stock hit a record high on Monday.

The Bangalore-based software giant gained 38 extra clients for the quarter.

Infosys, known for its conservative outlook, has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast in dollar terms in the last three consecutive quarters. The company expects earnings per American depositary share to rise 5.2 percent to 9.6 percent for the year, up from its previous forecast of 4.3 percent to 8.6 percent. The guidance has been revised from Rs 25,017 crore or 10 percent YoY projected at the beginning of this fiscal in April.


"There are still concerns lingering over Europe's debts and if the economy there is weak, consumption should be weak too," said Huey Yang, a fund manager with HSBC in Taipei. Infosys and local rivals Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro have raised salaries by 10 to 20 percent on average to keep staff from being poached by global rivals in a strong market.

India's export-driven software services firms, however, face uncertainty on orders from Europe, the second-biggest market for the industry after the United States. Infosys, which counts Goldman Sachs, BT Group and BP among its more than 550 customers, forecast its 2010/11 dollar revenue to rise 19 percent to 21 percent, higher than 16-18 percent projected in April.


Stock and Market views


Titan Industries: Regaining the lustre




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Trading desk

Idea
Current price: Rs 69.5
Target price: Rs 63

The scrip has started losing momentum after a steep climb from 53 to the current levels. If it does react from current levels, the downside target could be about 63. However, it's possible that it could run up for another session or two and it's tough to set an upside target. Keep a tight stop loss at 71.5 and go short. Start booking profits below 65. If the stop is broken, go long with a stop at 71 and an initial target of 74.


Infosys
Current price: Rs 2,890
Target price: Rs 2,825-2,925 (Range trade)

Infy made an upside breakout when it closed above 2,825 last Friday. It hit a 52-week high at 2,910 just ahead of Q1 results. Today should see a lot of volatility. Infy has the potential to jump to 2,950, but it could also slide till 2,825. So, the trader should be prepared for swings between 2,825 and 2,950. Use 2,870 as a pivot. If the stock opens above 2,870, go long with a target of 2,925 and a stop loss at 2,860. If it opens below 2,870, set a stop loss at 2,880 and go short with a target of 2,835.

Tata Motors
Current price: Rs 790
Target price: Rs 810

The stock seems to have recovered from an intermediate downtrend but it is hitting resistance at 790-795. If it clears 795, an upside till 810 is possible. Keep a stop at 782 and go long. Increase the position between 795 and 798. Start booking profits above 808 because there will be a lot of selling pressure above 808-810. On the downside, there's a lot of support between 770 and 780.

The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next one trading session unless otherwise stated


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Analysts' corner

IDBI Bank
Reco price: Rs 120
Target price: Rs 140

The government has agreed to infusion Rs 3,110 crore to aid the bank improve capital adequacy and expansion plans in future. It has also applied for increase in authorised capital, which would further give head room for raising capital for the bank and may come out with FPO in future for any capital requirement. The bank plans to continue its focus on infrastructure development which is traditionally its forte. It also plans for branch expansion of 300 branches to its existing network of 720 branches which will improve its franchise liability. The bank has sound asset quality with provision coverage of 75 per cent, well above RBI limit of 70 per cent. Maintain buy.

— Anand Rathi Research

Titan Industries
Reco price: Rs 2,501
Target price: Rs 3,000

Volume growth in Gold recovered since H1FY10 and registered nearly 45 per cent volume growth in the fourth quarter of FY10. Expect a healthy 14 per cent volume CAGR driven by stable gold prices and pick-up in consumer discretionary demand. Consequentially, expect sales and earnings CAGR of 20 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively for FY10-12E. Improving realisations, product mix, operating leverage along with improved profitability of other businesses, will lead to 80bps margin expansion in the next two years. Expect Titan to sustain the return on equity at around 40 per cent and witness a 3x increase in free cash flows in FY10-12E. The urban discretionary demand could continue to remain healthy; Titan will be the significant beneficiary of the demand momentum. The stock is trading at 33x FY12E EPS. Maintain buy.

— Prabhudas Lilladher

Pratibha Industries
Reco price: Rs 410
Target price: Rs 508

Pratibha Industries secured a built-operate-transfer (BOT) project on annuity basis from National Highway Authority of India (NHAI). The project involves two laning with paved shoulders of Bhopal-Sanchi section of national highway (NH)-86 for 53.7 km under National Highway Development Programme Phase-III. The company has also bagged three projects worth Rs 210 crore for the construction of residential and commercial complexes. In the first quarter of FY11, the company witnessed a strong order intake, bagging two engineering, production and construction (EPC) orders and two BOT projects, totaling to Rs 477 crore. The order inflow for FY10 stood at Rs 2,685 crore. The stock is trading at 8.7x and 6.5x its FY11E and FY12E earnings, respectively. Maintain buy.

— Sharekhan


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Titan Industries - glitter !


Sintex Industries


Aurobindo Pharma, ENIL


Daily Market Outlook - July 13 2010


Check out analysts' take on markets trend in the near future

Piramal Healthcare, Glenmark Pharma


India IIP Numbers


Sterlite Industries, Hindustan Zinc, IDFC, Industrials




Src: ET and DP blog and Smartinvestor.in