http://pivottrading.50webs.com/pivot/pivot/elliot.html
http://www.niftystockpivot.blogspot.com/
Use these Blogs/Webs for Your Technicals
This blog is for providing daily news of Corporate Indian Stories, Corporate Results, Equities, MFs, Banking,Insurance, Brokerages Informations, World Business, Venture Capital, Angel Investors, BSchools, MBAs,Jobs, Politics & something Interesting.Our team will be grateful to the owners of various Indian/world/govt sites to refer their sites to get INFORMATION without objection.Request viewers to make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
22 February 2010
Two Sites
http://pivottrading.50webs.com/pivot/pivot/elliot.html
http://www.niftystockpivot.blogspot.com/
Use these Blogs/Webs for Your Technicals
Key support at 4675, resistance at 4930
Key support at 4,675, resistance at 4,930
The market topped out at Nifty 4,929 points before sliding into another downtrend. The week closed with marginal net changes. The Nifty was last seen at 4,844.9, for a week-on-week gain of 0.4 per cent. The Sensex was up 0.2 per cent at 16,191. The Defty rose 0.5 per cent due to some rupee strengthening.
The market topped out at Nifty 4,929 points before sliding into another downtrend. The week closed with marginal net changes. The Nifty was last seen at 4,844.9, for a week-on-week gain of 0.4 per cent. The Sensex was up 0.2 per cent at 16,191. The Defty rose 0.5 per cent due to some rupee strengthening.
Breadth and background indicators were poor. The BSE 500 was down 0.1 per cent and the Midcaps were down 0.4 per cent while the Nifty Junior was down 0.5 per cent. Advances were outnumbered more than 4:1 by declines. Volumes were low and many smaller stocks weren't traded at all. The FIIs were moderate buyers while domestic institutions were net sellers.
Outlook: The market is in another short-term downtrend and it is likely to test support between 4,650 and 4,750 again. In all probability the next 5-10 sessions will see range-trading between 4,650 and 4,950 with a fair amount of intra-day volatility. We will get a clearer picture of the direction of intermediate and long-term trends over the next week.
Rationale: The short-term signals are negative and the market is not yet oversold enough to trigger a technical bounce on Monday. The last bottom was 4,675 on February 8. That was just above the 200 Day Moving Average, which suggests the long-term bull market is still intact. If the next bottom is at, or above 4,675, the pattern of higher lows would suggest that the intermediate downtrend, (which is now in week 6), is changing. A close below the 200 DMA (between 4,670 and 4,720 depending on calculation mode) would, on the other hand, suggest the long-term trend has gone bearish.
Counter-view: There is bound to be some short-covering and speculative buying immediately pre-Budget in settlement week. If the market does climb past 4,929 on the upside, we will have a pattern of higher highs, which would again signal an improving intermediate trend. The market is unlikely to “make up its mind” before the Budget so, range-trading between roughly 4,650 and 4,950 seems the most likely pattern until settlement.
Bulls and Bears: Most sectors fell last week and stocks outside the F&O ambit suffered from lack of liquidity as well. Trader should stay out of all but the largest scrips in this situation. Metals and realty were especially badly affected by selling. Sugar also saw a lot of selling. Telecom was hard-hit by a combination of poor quarterly results and Bharti's Zain deal, which was considered cause for selling by many operators.
Banks and IT were outperformers, with the Bank Nifty and CNXIT indices both up by over 1 per cent. But both sectors looked weak by Friday. There was some defensive buying in pharma and some speculative buying in energy stocks.
As things stand, a lot of pivotal scrips are sitting close to critical supports. Given the poor breadth signals, the chances are, some will crash. In other cases, profit-booking and renewed buying could trigger a bounce but that is more likely to occur close to settlement.
MICRO TECHNICALS
Bharti Airtel
Current price: Rs 278.80
Target Price: Rs 255
The stock has broken key support at Rs 300 on heavy selling and could be heading for a multi-year low at around Rs 255. There is some support at Rs 275-280 and again at Rs 265. Keep a stop at Rs 285 and short. Cover 50 per cent of the position at Rs 265 and reset the stop loss to Rs 270. Clear the position at Rs 255.
SBI
Current price: Rs 1,905
Target Price: Rs 1,850
The stock has been sold down to a critical support. If SBI closes below Rs 1,900, it will fall to Rs 1,850 and maybe lower, to Rs 1,800. Keep a stop at Rs 1,920 and short. Increase the position below Rs 1,900. Book 75 per cent profit at Rs 1,850 and reset the stop to Rs 1,860 with a new target of Rs 1,800.
Bharat Forge
Current price: Rs 243.65
Target Price: Rs 265
The stock has been sold down to a strong support. It has the potential to bounce back till around the Rs 265 level. Keep a stop at Rs 240 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 255 and reset the stop loss till Rs 250. Clear the position at Rs 265.
HDIL
Current price: Rs 302
Target Price: Rs 320
The stock has found firm support at the current price and it could easily make a technical recovery till the Rs 320 mark. Keep a stop at Rs 295 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 314 and reset the stop to Rs 310. Clear the position above Rs 320.
(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)
********************************************
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
*******************************************
Analysts' pick: Sunteck Realty, Colgate Palmolive, BoI, Indraprasta Gas
Src: Business-Standard, ET, DP Blog etc
Analysts' pick: Sunteck Realty, Colgate Palmolive, BoI, Indraprasta Gas
Infrastructure
BPCL
Budget Preview - Feb 22 2010
Mahindra and Mahindra
Tata Steel
Reliance Industries
Weekly Newsletter - Feb 22 2010
Src: Business-Standard, ET, DP Blog etc
21 February 2010
Wkly Tech Analysis: Free fall seen below 15900
Wkly Tech Analysis: Free fall seen below 15,900
The markets after showing signs of recovery pared gains towards the end of the week. It still settled with a marginal gain, as global factors came into play. The Indian market firmed up mid-week after a subdued start, while other major global markets were closed. However, after the resumption of trading abroad, weakness was seen especially on Friday, which saw our markets pare almost the entire gain.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Awaiting Budget day gyrations
The week ahead promises edge-of-the-seat excitement as the Union Budget jamboree unfolds. The Railway Budget will get things chugging on Wednesday followed by the much-prognosticated Union Budget on Friday. Thursday will be livened up by ...
STOCKS: Unitech: Buy
STOCKS: OnMobile Global Services: Hold
Investors with a two-year horizon can retain the shares of Onmobile Global Services, a mobile value-added services provider, given the strong revenue growth in lucrative overseas markets that are likely to kick in over the next 12-18 months. ...
Investors can retain Tata Life Sciences and Technology fund considering its long-term track record. The fund invests in the technology space as well as in the pharma sector — the latter considered as a defensive exposure. The fund, over ...
INSIGHT: Macro signals flash green, investors take cue
After jumping up joyfully at every scrap of economic data put out by the government throughout last year, the stock market has greeted macro-economic news with surprising apathy in recent months. Yet, there are several positive signals ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query corner: Bhushan Steel moving sideways
Please give me your opinion on Petronet LNG purchased at Rs 76. Should I purchase more at current level or exit? Anuj Jain, ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Consider shorting SAIL, India Bulls Real Estate
India Bulls Real Estate (Rs 154.85): The stock has been in downtrend for quite sometime now. The recent fall has further pushed it closer to its crucial support level. Though the stock has a critical resistance at Rs 182, only a close above ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: Hang Seng BeES — Chance to buy into China
Credited with being the first foreign ETF in the country, Hang Seng BeES is the latest offering from Benchmark Asset Management Company. An open-ended index scheme, the Hang Seng BeES aims to provide its investors with returns (before ...
********************************************
Src: BusinessLine, Business Standard, DP Blog etc
The markets after showing signs of recovery pared gains towards the end of the week. It still settled with a marginal gain, as global factors came into play. The Indian market firmed up mid-week after a subdued start, while other major global markets were closed. However, after the resumption of trading abroad, weakness was seen especially on Friday, which saw our markets pare almost the entire gain.
The Sensex after touching a low of 16,011, rallied to a high of 16,481. It slipped later and settled with a marginal gain of 39 points at 16,192. Other major global markets such as the US, Hong Kong, Japan and China were shut during the week for a day or two. In fact, China and Taiwan were shut throughout the week.
Among the index stocks — Hindalco surged over 8 per cent to Rs 150, and HDFC Bank rallied 6.5 per cent to Rs 1,700. Tata Steel, HDFC and Hindustan Unilever were the other major gainers. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel slumped 11.5 per cent to Rs 278. Reliance Infrastructure, DLF, Reliance Communications, Reliance and Sterlite were the other prominent losers this week.
Given the fact that we are headed to a week which will be dominated by the expiry of the February derivatives series and the Union Budget, predicting the direction of the market will be all the more difficult. One needs to be prepared for high volatility and keep an eye on key levels. The best strategy is to stay put till uncertainties vanish.
The Sensex is currently below its short-term moving average both on daily (20-day) and weekly (20-week) charts. The short-term moving average on the daily chart is at 16,240, while the short-term weekly moving average is at 16,784. The bias will remain down as long as the index trades below its short-term weekly moving average.
Although the Sensex has near support at 16,000, one needs to carefully watch 15,900 as a key level, for a break below 15,900 could trigger a free fall up to 15,300 at least.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 146 points, from a low of 4,784, the index moved up to a high of 4,930, and finally closed with a gain of 18 points at 4,845.
Next week, the Nifty is likely to face resistance around 4,900-4,918-4,935, while it may seek support around 4,813-4,772-4,755.
The daily short-term moving average of the index is at 4,854, and the short-term weekly moving average is at 5,001. The long-term (200-day) moving average on the daily chart is at 4,719, and the weekly long-term moving average at 4,200.
************************************************TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Awaiting Budget day gyrations
The week ahead promises edge-of-the-seat excitement as the Union Budget jamboree unfolds. The Railway Budget will get things chugging on Wednesday followed by the much-prognosticated Union Budget on Friday. Thursday will be livened up by ...
STOCKS: Unitech: Buy
STOCKS: OnMobile Global Services: Hold
Investors with a two-year horizon can retain the shares of Onmobile Global Services, a mobile value-added services provider, given the strong revenue growth in lucrative overseas markets that are likely to kick in over the next 12-18 months. ...
STOCKS: Madras Cements: Book Profits
Investors can consider booking profit in the stock of Madras Cements and entering it at lower levels later. The stock's fundamentals do not warrant significant upside from here over the next ...
IPOS: United Bank of India — IPO: Avoid
Investors can refrain from subscribing to the United Bank of India's public offer. Though the offer is modestly priced, the bank doesn't appear to be a preferred exposure in the banking space, where there are a large number of other ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling Stocks
Bharti Airtel gave investors the jitters last week as it turned tail following the announcement of its offer to buy the African operations of Kuwait telecommunications company, Zain. The stock lost 14 per cent in the first two sessions of ...
PUBLIC OFFER: REC — FPO: Invest
Investors can subscribe to the follow-on offer from Rural Electrification Corporation (REC), as the valuation at which the offer is made is reasonable in the light of the strong earnings visibility and growth expectations. REC, which ...
STOCKS: Gujarat State Petronet: Buy
Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL), engaged in natural gas transmission, presents a good buying proposition for investors with a medium-term perspective. At the current price of Rs 87, the stock discounts the trailing 12-month earnings by ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: HDFC Equity Fund: Invest
Investors with a long-term perspective can consider buying the units of HDFC Equity Fund. Over a decade old, the fund boasts of not just an impressive scorecard, but also of consistent out-performance over its benchmark CNX-500, one not easy ...
Investors can retain Tata Life Sciences and Technology fund considering its long-term track record. The fund invests in the technology space as well as in the pharma sector — the latter considered as a defensive exposure. The fund, over ...
INSIGHT: Macro signals flash green, investors take cue
After jumping up joyfully at every scrap of economic data put out by the government throughout last year, the stock market has greeted macro-economic news with surprising apathy in recent months. Yet, there are several positive signals ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query corner: Bhushan Steel moving sideways
Please give me your opinion on Petronet LNG purchased at Rs 76. Should I purchase more at current level or exit? Anuj Jain, ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Consider shorting SAIL, India Bulls Real Estate
India Bulls Real Estate (Rs 154.85): The stock has been in downtrend for quite sometime now. The recent fall has further pushed it closer to its crucial support level. Though the stock has a critical resistance at Rs 182, only a close above ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: Hang Seng BeES — Chance to buy into China
Credited with being the first foreign ETF in the country, Hang Seng BeES is the latest offering from Benchmark Asset Management Company. An open-ended index scheme, the Hang Seng BeES aims to provide its investors with returns (before ...
********************************************
DLF
Weekly Outlook - Feb 20 2010
Weekly Market Outlook - Feb 20 2010
Weekly Newsletter - Feb 20 2010
Weekly Watch - Feb 20 2010
Hindalco
Tata Motors
Bajaj Electricals
Bajaj Electricals
Weekly Wrap - Feb 20 2010
Dividend Yield Stocks
Budget Preview - Feb 20 2010
India Budget 2010-11 Preview
India Budget 2010-11 Preview
India Budget Preview - Feb 19 2010
Budget Preview - Feb 18 2010
Deepak Fertilizers
Man Infraconstruction IPO subscribed 6.87 times
Src: BusinessLine, Business Standard, DP Blog etc
19 February 2010
Pre Market: Stocks to open lower on weak global cues
Pre Market: Stocks to open lower on weak global cues
MUMBAI: Equities are likely to extend losses on Friday tracking overseas declines. However, stock-specific action is expected on the back of
Budget expectations. Fertilizer stocks may gain strength following the government’s decision to go ahead with the nutrient based subsidy plan.
“Nifty witnessed profit booking after seeing a 2.7% rally in the last two days. Reliance Industries which gave a positive signal in Wednesday’s session was down 3% on Thursday due to which we saw huge pressure on the Sensex. The intermediate rally which started from the lows of 4,675 is still intact unless Nifty breaks below 4,825 on the closing basis.
The daily RSI and MACD are still in a positive territory indicating that this positive uptrend will continue. Strong support is seen at 4,860-4,825 and stiff resistance at 4,920 - 4,950 levels. Nifty is currently in the tight trading band of 4950-4800 and unless we see a break of this range, markets will remain volatile with a positive bias,” said Nirmal Bang Securities.
US stocks rose for a third straight day on Thursday as investors viewed company results and manufacturing data as evidence the economic rebound will continue. Meanwhile, index futures tumbled after the Federal Reserve announced it was raising the discount rate that it charges banks for emergency loans.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83.66 points, or 0.81 percent, to 10,392.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 7.24 points, or 0.66 percent, to 1,106.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 15.42 points, or 0.69 percent, to 2,241.71.
As a result, Asian stocks declined sending the Nikkei down 0.12 per cent and Topix down 0.07 per cent. Kospi dropped 0.08 per cent and Straits Times fell 0.2 per cent.
Back home, markets ended a choppy session on a weak note Thursday, taking cues from subdued global peers. Profit booking in index heavy-weight Reliance Industries put pressure on indices. Traders also took some profit home near resistance levels after a two-day rally.
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 16327.84, down 101.07 points or 0.62 per cent. The index touched an intra-day low of 16287.17 and high of 16452.51.
National Stock Exchange’s Nifty closed at 4887.75, down 26.25 points or 0.53 per cent. The broader index hit a low of 4873.70 and high of 4922.05
Top 5 picks | Mid term picks | Gainers, Losers & analysts' recommendations
4800 level seen crucial for Nifty
*********************************************
Heard on Street: Albula laps up Adani Power
Why are institutions so bullish on
realty IPOs?
When an initial public offer (IPO) that is considered expensive gets oversubscribed, conspiracy theories usually follow the talk about the ‘real reasons’ behind the success. Such theories have been doing the rounds in the market, following the IPO success of one such developer recently. Grapevine has it that some of the leading investors in this issue were offered apartments at discounted rates to the market for subscribing to the IPO.
A robust subscription to an issue in the qualified institutional investors category is key to issuers and bankers for attracting the interest of retail investors, who usually look up to this category for cues to invest in an IPO. Such theories are not without reasons. When investors have been dumping shares of most leading developers, which has resulted in the realty index underperforming the benchmark since October, critics ask why these institutional investors are so bullish on realty public issues.
Albula laps up Adani Power as it reshuffles portfolio
The sluggish movement in Adani Power shares after the listing may have caused concern among its retail shareholders, but some investors still sense investment opportunity in the company, going by the trading pattern in the stock in the current market. On Wednesday, a
Sebi-registered FII sub-account Albula Investment Fund bought 43 lakh shares at Rs 108, around 8% higher than the price at which the company had come out with its public issue last year. According to brokers, purchases could be part of a portfolio reshuffling whereby a fund sells high-priced stock to buy a relatively cheaper one, a strategy mostly seen in volatile market conditions. Adani Power closed 1.1% down at Rs 107 on Thursday.
ICICIdirect gets go-ahead for digital KYC
Even as mutual fund distributors are grappling with the execution of the recent Sebi fiat on know your client (KYC) norms, one of the largest online distributors of mutual fund products, ICICIdirect, has been given the go-ahead for an electronically-scanned KYC. It may be recalled that mutual fund distributors had some time ago mooted a central bureau of registry for all KYC documentation.
The distributors have also been lobbying for an electronic
or digital KYC till such time a comprehensive system is in place. The rationale being that this would bring down the volume of paper in the system that would otherwise be generated if the distributors were to send a copy of all supporting documents to the AMCs with retrospective effect ie from 1999 as is the Sebi directive.
(Contributed by Nishanth Vasudevan, Vijay Gurav & Deeptha Rajkumar)
*******************************************
Src: ET, DP Blog etc
MUMBAI: Equities are likely to extend losses on Friday tracking overseas declines. However, stock-specific action is expected on the back of
“Nifty witnessed profit booking after seeing a 2.7% rally in the last two days. Reliance Industries which gave a positive signal in Wednesday’s session was down 3% on Thursday due to which we saw huge pressure on the Sensex. The intermediate rally which started from the lows of 4,675 is still intact unless Nifty breaks below 4,825 on the closing basis.
The daily RSI and MACD are still in a positive territory indicating that this positive uptrend will continue. Strong support is seen at 4,860-4,825 and stiff resistance at 4,920 - 4,950 levels. Nifty is currently in the tight trading band of 4950-4800 and unless we see a break of this range, markets will remain volatile with a positive bias,” said Nirmal Bang Securities.
US stocks rose for a third straight day on Thursday as investors viewed company results and manufacturing data as evidence the economic rebound will continue. Meanwhile, index futures tumbled after the Federal Reserve announced it was raising the discount rate that it charges banks for emergency loans.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83.66 points, or 0.81 percent, to 10,392.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 7.24 points, or 0.66 percent, to 1,106.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 15.42 points, or 0.69 percent, to 2,241.71.
As a result, Asian stocks declined sending the Nikkei down 0.12 per cent and Topix down 0.07 per cent. Kospi dropped 0.08 per cent and Straits Times fell 0.2 per cent.
Back home, markets ended a choppy session on a weak note Thursday, taking cues from subdued global peers. Profit booking in index heavy-weight Reliance Industries put pressure on indices. Traders also took some profit home near resistance levels after a two-day rally.
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 16327.84, down 101.07 points or 0.62 per cent. The index touched an intra-day low of 16287.17 and high of 16452.51.
National Stock Exchange’s Nifty closed at 4887.75, down 26.25 points or 0.53 per cent. The broader index hit a low of 4873.70 and high of 4922.05
Top 5 picks | Mid term picks | Gainers, Losers & analysts' recommendations
4800 level seen crucial for Nifty
*********************************************
Heard on Street: Albula laps up Adani Power
Why are institutions so bullish on
When an initial public offer (IPO) that is considered expensive gets oversubscribed, conspiracy theories usually follow the talk about the ‘real reasons’ behind the success. Such theories have been doing the rounds in the market, following the IPO success of one such developer recently. Grapevine has it that some of the leading investors in this issue were offered apartments at discounted rates to the market for subscribing to the IPO.
A robust subscription to an issue in the qualified institutional investors category is key to issuers and bankers for attracting the interest of retail investors, who usually look up to this category for cues to invest in an IPO. Such theories are not without reasons. When investors have been dumping shares of most leading developers, which has resulted in the realty index underperforming the benchmark since October, critics ask why these institutional investors are so bullish on realty public issues.
Albula laps up Adani Power as it reshuffles portfolio
The sluggish movement in Adani Power shares after the listing may have caused concern among its retail shareholders, but some investors still sense investment opportunity in the company, going by the trading pattern in the stock in the current market. On Wednesday, a
Sebi-registered FII sub-account Albula Investment Fund bought 43 lakh shares at Rs 108, around 8% higher than the price at which the company had come out with its public issue last year. According to brokers, purchases could be part of a portfolio reshuffling whereby a fund sells high-priced stock to buy a relatively cheaper one, a strategy mostly seen in volatile market conditions. Adani Power closed 1.1% down at Rs 107 on Thursday.
ICICIdirect gets go-ahead for digital KYC
Even as mutual fund distributors are grappling with the execution of the recent Sebi fiat on know your client (KYC) norms, one of the largest online distributors of mutual fund products, ICICIdirect, has been given the go-ahead for an electronically-scanned KYC. It may be recalled that mutual fund distributors had some time ago mooted a central bureau of registry for all KYC documentation.
The distributors have also been lobbying for an electronic
or digital KYC till such time a comprehensive system is in place. The rationale being that this would bring down the volume of paper in the system that would otherwise be generated if the distributors were to send a copy of all supporting documents to the AMCs with retrospective effect ie from 1999 as is the Sebi directive.
(Contributed by Nishanth Vasudevan, Vijay Gurav & Deeptha Rajkumar)
*******************************************
Daily News Roundup - Feb 19 2010
Surprise on the Street!
Rural Electrification Corporation FPO
Polaris Software Ltd
ICICI Bank
Tata Steel
HDIL
Hexaware Technologies
Reliance Industries Ltd
Src: ET, DP Blog etc
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)