Stocks end sharply lower
Reliance ADAG eyes steel foray; lines up Rs 40,000 cr for Jharkhand plant
BoA sees India growth opportunities
Thousands lose jobs in UK as Lehman Brothers collapses
Rupee hits 2-year lows as stocks fall weighs
Satyam Computers to axe 4,500 employees
Financial turmoil: AIG looks at liquidating assets
Rel Infra eyes share in PSU projects
Oil prices plunge to $92.11 a barrel
AIG shares fall 52 pc, debt costs jump
India Inc's crorepati directors' list gets bigger
Lehman-invested Indian firms lose over Rs 2,000 cr
PowerGrid to buy 26% in IL&FS power SPV
Dr Reddy's eyes brand buys in US
Reliance Comm adds 1.75 mn users in Aug
Sensex forms bearish head and shoulder pattern
Merrill Lynch reiterats its 'underperform' rating on M&M
BNP Paribas assigns 'reduce' rating to Reliance Power
Edelweiss maintains 'accumulate' rating on Amtek Auto
HSBC assigns 'overweight' rating to Dabur India
Citigroup recommends 'buy' on Everest Kanto Cylinder
Morgan Stanley downgrads Arvind to 'equal-weight'
PINC puts buy on Cosmo Films; target Rs 125
Rupee ends at 45.95/96
Lehman to file for bankruptcy; BankAm buys Merrill
Maha govt asks Reliance to increase compensation package
Post-waiver, power output at N-plants may double
Sensex down 469 points on heavy sell-off
Lehman to file for bankruptcy, subsidiaries kept out
Bank of America to buy Merrill Lynch
Inflation to come down to 10% by December: Rangarajan
Emami sweetens open offer for Zandu
Bharti Airtel to foray into IT
Source: ET,BL,BS etc
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15 September 2008
Sensex fell 470 pts on Lehman worries
Stocks Review: US financial worries weigh on equities
Lehman Bros files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
Investor sentiment was marred Monday on worries about the health of the US financial sector after Lehman Brothers became the latest casualty to the mortgage crisis fallout, Merrill agreed to be taken over by Bank of America for $50 billion and troubled insurer American International Group asked the Fed for a lifeline. With Lehman and Merrill Lynch out of the picture, three of the top five US investment banks have effectively departed the scene in less than six months. Bear Stearns was acquired in a fire sale by JPMorgan in March.
"We are witnessing a turning point in the modern history of the financial system, as three major brokers have now disappeared from the scene. The coming days and weeks will be crucial to the global economic outlook," said Anita Gandhi, head-institutional business at Arihant Capital. Stock markets in Australia, Singapore and Taiwan fell by around 2 to 4 percent, with shares of many banks suffering bigger losses. Holidays in most major Asian markets, including Tokyo and Hong Kong, kept volumes thin. The gloom across global markets took its toll on Indian bourses as well, which plunged over 6 per cent intra-day as investors braced for more FII outflows. However, the market recovered lost ground towards the fag end of the session on the back of short covering in battered index heavyweights.
Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex settled at 13,531.27, down 469.54 points or 3.35 per cent, recovering from the day's low of 13,150.81. The index opened at 13,666.28. National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended 3.68 per cent or 155.55 points at 4072.90. The index fell to a low of 3955.40 earlier in the day.
"The mood is pessimistic than ever before; even insurance companies that generally come to support the market at times of distress, are not on the buy side. Lehman's exposure in heavyweights like DLF and Unitech sent the BSE Realty Index on a downward spiral," Gandhi added. The selling spree sent the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices down 4.49 per cent and 4.93 per cent respectively. After remaining in the negative terrain for most of the day, Maruti Suzuki (2.8%), HDFC (1.16%), and ACC (0.61%) managed to eke out decent gains.
Reliance Infrastructure (-9.72%), Satyam Computer (-9.45%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (-7.6%), DLF (-7.54%) and ONGC (-6 .01%) were under pressure. While the fate of the US financial system loomed in investors' minds around the world, initial reports that Hurricane Ike had not severely damaged infrastructure in Texas knocked benchmark oil prices below $100 a barrel. Oil tumbled 6 per cent to $94.83 although traders were cautious as they awaited status reports on more Texas refineries. The financial turmoil halted US dollar's rise against other currencies, however, there was no respite for the Indian rupee. The Indian currency was down 46.04/05, down 32 paise against the US dollar.
-----------------------------------------------
Financial powerhouse collapses
World banks act to calm Lehman storm Lehman files for bankruptcy Wall Street jolted BoA buys Merrill
Rupee hits 2-yr lows as stocks fall weighs
Rupee hits 2-year lows as stocks fall weighs
Bank of America to buy Merrill for $50 bn
Lehman effect: Indian cos lose over Rs 2K-cr
Financial turmoil: AIG looks at liquidating assets
Other stories in this section
Financial woes rattle investor confidence; call buying at 4000 holds Nifty
Stocks end sharply lower on US financial woes
Sensex provisionally closes 517.46 points down at 13,483.35
Indices pare losses; Sensex down 500 points
Global markets crash fearing credit crisis to worsen
Sensex ends 470 pts down despite a strong recovery
09:49 - US financial woes thrash markets; Nifty ends below 4100
04:47 - AIG to announce restructuring plans on Tuesday
08:52 - BoA buys Merrill Lynch in $50bn all-stock deal
10:39 - Lehman bankruptcy: FIIs react
Source:ET, Sify,MC etc
Sensex is at a crucial level, Investor Guide frm ET
Sensex is currently at a crucial level
The Sensex, after recording its all-time high of 21206 points in January 2008, has been trading lower. The broader trend has turned negative, as the long-term upward bias channelled trend for the index has been breached in January 2008. Since the index has been trading below the channel trend line and continues to form lower highs and lower lows.
The bear phase that began in January 2008 would remain intact for minimum 18 months, which is the one-third of the time period taken by the Sensex bull rally which began in May 2003 and ended in January 2008 (lasted for 56 months of time period). Hence, the bear phase would continue to last for a minimum of 10 months more i.e. up to July 2009. However, it remains to be seen whether the recent low of 12514 formed in July 2008 would remain intact, as the bottom for the current bear phase, or if the Sensex would form a new low below 12514.
Sensex’s downward move from its all-time high of 21206 on the weekly chart is channelled and continues to from lower highs and lower lows, indicating the continuation of the bear phase. As long as the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows and moves within the channel, it is most likely to slip below its recent low of 12514 to form a new low. During the current downtrend, we have so far witnessed three rallies and each rally has been of minimum 3000 points and the fall, following the rally, has been of minimum 5000 points.
The Sensex opened with a bullish gap during the week and recorded a high of 15107 on Monday, rising by 624 points intra-day. However, it failed to hold on to its initial gains and corrected subsequently to end the week negative by 483 points. The Sensex has given a close at 14000 levels, which is very crucial. The rise from 12514 recorded in July 2008 till date has formed a NeoWave “Extracting Triangle” pattern or a “Head and Shoulder” pattern. Trading below 14000 levels for two consecutive days would confirm the bearish breakout of the pattern, under this scenario the Sensex could move down to 13727-13505 points. Any pull-back would get resisted at the neckline whose value for the current week is placed at 14215. Above this level, the next resistance is placed at 14523, which is due to the weekly channel resistance trend line. At higher levels, the Sensex move above 15579 level would negate the negative outlook for the index, in which case fresh buying can be suggested. Until then, stay away from the market.
-----------------------------------------------
Week Ahead: Poised for downside breakout
The market weakened noticeably in another lacklustre week. The Nifty found support at 4,200 on Friday to close at 4,228.45 points for a loss of 2.85 per cent. The Sensex was down 3.33 per cent at 14,000.81. The Defty lost 4.94 per cent as the rupee slid sharply.
The overall breadth perspective was extremely negative. Advances were far outnumbered by declines. The Junior lost 3.67 per cent and the BSE 500 lost 3.3 per cent. Volumes were low except on Friday where there was massive selling. The FIIs were large and consistent net sellers and the domestic institutions were also net sellers.
Outlook: The market may be poised for a downside breakout. It has already tested a key support at 4,200. If it closes below 4,180, a drop till the 3,950 level is very likely though there is plenty of interim support between 3,950-4,150.
Rationale: An intermediate uptrend started at the low of 3,790 in mid-July and after eight weeks, the trend could well be reversing. The past two weeks have seen tightly rangebound trading on low volumes.
On Friday, the lower end of that range was tested with volume expansion. If there's a breakout (close below 4,179) the downside would be at least 3,950 and maybe, lower. A pessimist would project a low between 3,700-3,800.
Counter-view: Despite the selling pressure, the support at 4,200 did hold. It is possible that the index will continue to range trade. However it seems unlikely and a sharp recovery seems impossible unless there's a big volume expansion and reversal of institutional attitude.
Bulls & bears: There were almost no bulls to speak of. The big losses came in the IT sector and in realty and banks. In one sense, the CNXIT's loss of 3.07 per cent was surprising since the rupee dropped. Most of the losses came on Friday when bellwether Infy dropped 6 per cent and every IT major lost ground.
The selloffs in banking and realty were less paradoxical. The Bank Nifty lost 1.5 per cent and is very likely to lose more next week. All key banking and financial stocks look bearish but the PSUs such as PNB and BoB may hold ground better.
Realty seems to have a 3-week sell cycle and is not likely to recover until short-covering comes in near settlement. Metals saw selling through the week but a recovery of sorts was noticeable on Friday as Sail and Nalco stabilised and the bearish momentum in Tata Steel eased.
Apart from these, pivotals like Reliance Industries and Reliance Infra were also bearish. On the buyside, Airtel is one of the few heavyweights that could move against the tide.
Hind Unilever, BHEL and NTPC may also hold their ground. New listing Austral is still getting high volumes as well though it is much too early to take a technical call.
MICRO TECHNICALS
AirtelCurrent Price: Rs 778.85Target Price: Rs 810
The stock dropped to a low of Rs 745 from a September high of Rs 848 before it started to firm up on Friday. It has the potential to climb till Rs 810 at least on an intra-day basis. Keep a stop at Rs 770 and go long. Be prepared for an intra-day swing of around Rs 50-60. Book profits above Rs 805.
Bhel Current Price: Rs 1,698Target Price: Rs 1,735
The stock has made a sharp recovery from Rs 1,660. It has potential to rise till around Rs 1,735. Keep a stop at Rs 1,690 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 1,725 because higher prices may not be sustainable except on an intra-day basis.
Reliance Capital Current Price: Rs 1,210.20Target Price: Rs 1,050
The stock is testing a key support and if it closes below Rs 1,200, it will have a downside target of Rs 1,050. There is some interim support at Rs 1,125. Keep a stop at Rs 1,225 and go short. Book a partial profit at Rs 1,125 and hold the rest of the position down to Rs 1,050.
Reliance IndustriesCurrent Price: Rs 1,932Target Price: Rs 1,750
The stock has made a downside breakout with a sharp volume expansion. The target projection from the charts suggests that a target of Rs 1,650 is possible. However, RIL is already close to its 2008 low and those projections may be wildly inaccurate. A conservative target is Rs 1,750. Keep a sliding stop at Rs 1,970 and go short. Move the stop down by Rs 20 for every 20 point move in the stock. Book profits at Rs 1,750.
Tata Steel Current Price: Rs 523.65Target Price: NA
The stock is at its 2008 low. It made the downside breakout by closing below Rs 590 in early September and then it broke Rs 560, which was the next support. The downside target could be Rs 520 or Rs 490 depending on the strength of the current support. The upside would be Rs 560 on a bounce with some resistance at Rs 540. A long position with a stop at Rs 515 looks the best chance. Book some profit at Rs 540 and cash out above Rs 555.
-------------------------------------------------
Investor's Guide
Technical Analysis: Bull market?
Best stock picks in the Services sector
SMR warns of meltdown
Divide your portfolio Long term plan: Fortis, Solar Explosives
Proper risk & money management important for profitable trading
What Freddie-Fannie bailout means for Asia? 15 Sep, 2008, 0531 hrs IST
US home buyers haven’t been the only ones counting on the supposed reliability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Great Offshore & Varun Shipping best bets in shipping sector 15 Sep, 2008, 0528 hrs IST, Karan Sehgal
The only ray of hope in the shipping sector comes from investments in offshore supply vessels. Great Offshore and Varun Shipping are the best bets in this space.
Analysts' picks: M&M, Dabur, R-Power,Citigroup, Amtek & Arvind 15 Sep, 2008, 0458 hrs IST
Analysts' picks: M&M, Dabur, R-Power,Citigroup, Amtek & Arvind
Greenply Industries stocks looks promising 15 Sep, 2008, 0449 hrs IST, Amit Jain
Greenply Industries is set to put up a good show in FY10 as one of its units will go on stream in July-August ’09.The stock looks promising for investors with a horizon of 12-18 months
Tata Steel to become even bigger in future: CFO 15 Sep, 2008, 0429 hrs IST, SANTANU MISHRA AND KRISHNA KANT
Tata Steel Group CFO Koushik Chatterjee shares his vision of the company becoming even bigger in future
---------------------------------------------
The Sensex, after recording its all-time high of 21206 points in January 2008, has been trading lower. The broader trend has turned negative, as the long-term upward bias channelled trend for the index has been breached in January 2008. Since the index has been trading below the channel trend line and continues to form lower highs and lower lows.
The bear phase that began in January 2008 would remain intact for minimum 18 months, which is the one-third of the time period taken by the Sensex bull rally which began in May 2003 and ended in January 2008 (lasted for 56 months of time period). Hence, the bear phase would continue to last for a minimum of 10 months more i.e. up to July 2009. However, it remains to be seen whether the recent low of 12514 formed in July 2008 would remain intact, as the bottom for the current bear phase, or if the Sensex would form a new low below 12514.
Sensex’s downward move from its all-time high of 21206 on the weekly chart is channelled and continues to from lower highs and lower lows, indicating the continuation of the bear phase. As long as the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows and moves within the channel, it is most likely to slip below its recent low of 12514 to form a new low. During the current downtrend, we have so far witnessed three rallies and each rally has been of minimum 3000 points and the fall, following the rally, has been of minimum 5000 points.
The Sensex opened with a bullish gap during the week and recorded a high of 15107 on Monday, rising by 624 points intra-day. However, it failed to hold on to its initial gains and corrected subsequently to end the week negative by 483 points. The Sensex has given a close at 14000 levels, which is very crucial. The rise from 12514 recorded in July 2008 till date has formed a NeoWave “Extracting Triangle” pattern or a “Head and Shoulder” pattern. Trading below 14000 levels for two consecutive days would confirm the bearish breakout of the pattern, under this scenario the Sensex could move down to 13727-13505 points. Any pull-back would get resisted at the neckline whose value for the current week is placed at 14215. Above this level, the next resistance is placed at 14523, which is due to the weekly channel resistance trend line. At higher levels, the Sensex move above 15579 level would negate the negative outlook for the index, in which case fresh buying can be suggested. Until then, stay away from the market.
-----------------------------------------------
Week Ahead: Poised for downside breakout
The market weakened noticeably in another lacklustre week. The Nifty found support at 4,200 on Friday to close at 4,228.45 points for a loss of 2.85 per cent. The Sensex was down 3.33 per cent at 14,000.81. The Defty lost 4.94 per cent as the rupee slid sharply.
The overall breadth perspective was extremely negative. Advances were far outnumbered by declines. The Junior lost 3.67 per cent and the BSE 500 lost 3.3 per cent. Volumes were low except on Friday where there was massive selling. The FIIs were large and consistent net sellers and the domestic institutions were also net sellers.
Outlook: The market may be poised for a downside breakout. It has already tested a key support at 4,200. If it closes below 4,180, a drop till the 3,950 level is very likely though there is plenty of interim support between 3,950-4,150.
Rationale: An intermediate uptrend started at the low of 3,790 in mid-July and after eight weeks, the trend could well be reversing. The past two weeks have seen tightly rangebound trading on low volumes.
On Friday, the lower end of that range was tested with volume expansion. If there's a breakout (close below 4,179) the downside would be at least 3,950 and maybe, lower. A pessimist would project a low between 3,700-3,800.
Counter-view: Despite the selling pressure, the support at 4,200 did hold. It is possible that the index will continue to range trade. However it seems unlikely and a sharp recovery seems impossible unless there's a big volume expansion and reversal of institutional attitude.
Bulls & bears: There were almost no bulls to speak of. The big losses came in the IT sector and in realty and banks. In one sense, the CNXIT's loss of 3.07 per cent was surprising since the rupee dropped. Most of the losses came on Friday when bellwether Infy dropped 6 per cent and every IT major lost ground.
The selloffs in banking and realty were less paradoxical. The Bank Nifty lost 1.5 per cent and is very likely to lose more next week. All key banking and financial stocks look bearish but the PSUs such as PNB and BoB may hold ground better.
Realty seems to have a 3-week sell cycle and is not likely to recover until short-covering comes in near settlement. Metals saw selling through the week but a recovery of sorts was noticeable on Friday as Sail and Nalco stabilised and the bearish momentum in Tata Steel eased.
Apart from these, pivotals like Reliance Industries and Reliance Infra were also bearish. On the buyside, Airtel is one of the few heavyweights that could move against the tide.
Hind Unilever, BHEL and NTPC may also hold their ground. New listing Austral is still getting high volumes as well though it is much too early to take a technical call.
MICRO TECHNICALS
AirtelCurrent Price: Rs 778.85Target Price: Rs 810
The stock dropped to a low of Rs 745 from a September high of Rs 848 before it started to firm up on Friday. It has the potential to climb till Rs 810 at least on an intra-day basis. Keep a stop at Rs 770 and go long. Be prepared for an intra-day swing of around Rs 50-60. Book profits above Rs 805.
Bhel Current Price: Rs 1,698Target Price: Rs 1,735
The stock has made a sharp recovery from Rs 1,660. It has potential to rise till around Rs 1,735. Keep a stop at Rs 1,690 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 1,725 because higher prices may not be sustainable except on an intra-day basis.
Reliance Capital Current Price: Rs 1,210.20Target Price: Rs 1,050
The stock is testing a key support and if it closes below Rs 1,200, it will have a downside target of Rs 1,050. There is some interim support at Rs 1,125. Keep a stop at Rs 1,225 and go short. Book a partial profit at Rs 1,125 and hold the rest of the position down to Rs 1,050.
Reliance IndustriesCurrent Price: Rs 1,932Target Price: Rs 1,750
The stock has made a downside breakout with a sharp volume expansion. The target projection from the charts suggests that a target of Rs 1,650 is possible. However, RIL is already close to its 2008 low and those projections may be wildly inaccurate. A conservative target is Rs 1,750. Keep a sliding stop at Rs 1,970 and go short. Move the stop down by Rs 20 for every 20 point move in the stock. Book profits at Rs 1,750.
Tata Steel Current Price: Rs 523.65Target Price: NA
The stock is at its 2008 low. It made the downside breakout by closing below Rs 590 in early September and then it broke Rs 560, which was the next support. The downside target could be Rs 520 or Rs 490 depending on the strength of the current support. The upside would be Rs 560 on a bounce with some resistance at Rs 540. A long position with a stop at Rs 515 looks the best chance. Book some profit at Rs 540 and cash out above Rs 555.
-------------------------------------------------
Investor's Guide
Technical Analysis: Bull market?
Best stock picks in the Services sector
SMR warns of meltdown
Divide your portfolio Long term plan: Fortis, Solar Explosives
Proper risk & money management important for profitable trading
What Freddie-Fannie bailout means for Asia? 15 Sep, 2008, 0531 hrs IST
US home buyers haven’t been the only ones counting on the supposed reliability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Great Offshore & Varun Shipping best bets in shipping sector 15 Sep, 2008, 0528 hrs IST, Karan Sehgal
The only ray of hope in the shipping sector comes from investments in offshore supply vessels. Great Offshore and Varun Shipping are the best bets in this space.
Analysts' picks: M&M, Dabur, R-Power,Citigroup, Amtek & Arvind 15 Sep, 2008, 0458 hrs IST
Analysts' picks: M&M, Dabur, R-Power,Citigroup, Amtek & Arvind
Greenply Industries stocks looks promising 15 Sep, 2008, 0449 hrs IST, Amit Jain
Greenply Industries is set to put up a good show in FY10 as one of its units will go on stream in July-August ’09.The stock looks promising for investors with a horizon of 12-18 months
Tata Steel to become even bigger in future: CFO 15 Sep, 2008, 0429 hrs IST, SANTANU MISHRA AND KRISHNA KANT
Tata Steel Group CFO Koushik Chatterjee shares his vision of the company becoming even bigger in future
---------------------------------------------
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