10 worst performing cos
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Two Attractive Mid Cap Stocks
Sanjay Chhabria
Dec 24, 2009
Gruh Finance Ltd (Rs 205)
(BSE Code - 511288, NSE Code - GRUH)
(P/E - 12, Equity - Rs34.65 cr, HDFC’s stake - 61.5%, Market Cap - Rs710 cr)
Gruh Finance (GFL) was set up in 1986 by HDFC to replicate its ‘home financing’ business model in semi urban and rural areas. Presently, the parent’s ownership stands at 61.85% and it has three representatives in the board of Gruh Finance (out of the total board’s strength of eight). Gruh has maintained the standards of services, quality of assets and management of cost of funds comparable to its parent. HDFC is the largest shareholder in the company with a stake of 61.49%. Gruh Finance has been a major player in the non-metro markets of Gujarat and Maharashtra where semi-urban and rural areas are witnessing growing prosperity. With the exception of a few PSU and co-operative banks, none of the aggressive private sector entities cater to the latent demand in these regions. Gruh has entered this relatively under-banked market with a unique marketing strategy. GFL is primarily engaged in the business of providing long-term finance to individuals for construction, purchase, extension, repair and renovation of homes. Gruh has launched innovative products and flexible repayment options to suit consumers in various segments. Besides home loans, Gruh offers loans for purchase of non-residential properties like office premises and shops. One of the major strength of the company is its strong and visionary Parent & management. HDFC, the major stakeholder is the pioneer in the housing finance and strong credibility as well as investor confidence.
Gruh Finance presently operates out of 65 offices and majority of these offices are in locations where HDFC does not have a presence. Going forward, Gruh would like to be in places that would not be on the radar of large housing finance companies. The company’s strategy has been to establish its presence at the district headquarters and then gradually penetrate adjoining areas, after garnering adequate knowledge about the local markets. This model of expanding into contiguous geographies helps in minimizing risks associated with venturing into uncharted territories. Gruh has maintained quality of service comparable to its parent although it operates in different geographies. Hence, in distant future, if the parent decides to merge the operations of Gruh with itself, it would not be very difficult.
GFL’s financials are in sound shape. The capital adequacy ratio(CAR) of about 16% allows the company considerable flexibility in managing both business growth and dividend disbursals. The proportion of bad loans at less than 2% is also impressive. The profitability of the operations has improved considerably in recent years, with spreads rising above 2%. The asset quality is comparable to HDFC. The housing finance sector continues to be one of the fastest growing sector in the finance sector. As growth prospects are bright in the home loan business, there is a strong likelihood of GRUH Finance sustaining its healthy profitability levels.
For the half year ended Sept. 2009, GFL has posted a net profit of Rs 20.64 cr.(up 29%) on total income of 150 cr.(up 20%). For the year ended March 31, 2009 GFL had posted a net profit of Rs 50.28 cr.(up 19%) cr. on total income of Rs 295 cr.(up 46%). On a equity of 34.65 cr. the EPS stood at Rs 14.53 and the dividend declared was 48%. The Gross NPAs of the GFL stood at Rs 19.68 cr. (0.94% of the Loan Assets). The NPAs are fully provided for and as a result the Net NPAs of the Company are Nil. Going forward, the company plans to target interior areas of Maharashtra and expand its presence into the adjoining states of Rajasthan, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. The foray to new geographies should enable the company to maintain an average disbursement growth between 18-20%.
The stock trades at 11.7x FY10E earnings (Rs 17.5) and at 9.7 x FY11E earnings (Rs 21). Gruh Finance offers long-term investors an excellent exposure to rapid semi-urban and rural socio-economic development in India in the next few years in the area of home loans and personal finance. Its strong pedigree and balance sheet attributes, high quality of loan book, low rate of delinquencies and superior to peer group RoEs makes it a premium play inspite of its rather small size. Gruh Finance is like HDFC being available in small caps. Investors can start accumulating the stock at current levels and add more on declines for decent returns of 40%-45% over the next 6-8 months.
Autoline Industries Ltd (Rs 119)
(BSE Code – 532797, NSE Code- AUTOIND)
(P/E - 9, Market Cap - Rs145 cr, Equity - Rs12.2 cr)
Autoline Industries (AIL) supplies complex sheet metal assemblies and sub-assemblies to Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Kinetic Engineering, Mahindra & Mahindra, Walker Exhaust and Fiat India. Tata Motors, which buys components for passenger cars and commercial vehicles, is Autoline's largest customer. AIL, which has five facilities in Pune, is a design engineering and manufacturing solutions provider focused on sheet metal assemblies and formed tubular products. AIL had come with an IPO in January 2007 at Rs 225 per share. Funds raised through the IPO have been used to upgrade and expand Autoline's Chakan facility in Pune; set up another manufacturing facility at the same location; relocate and consolidate a couple of smaller units; establish a corporate office; fund acquisitions, and provide long-term working-capital resources. The equity capital of the company is Rs 12.22 cr. of which promoters’ hold 26.62%, FII/Mutual funds hold 1.82%, corporate bodies hold 16.65% and the public holds 54.91%
The Indian automobile ancillary sector is transforming itself from a low -volume, highly fragmented one into a competitive industry, and backed by competitive strengths, technology and transition up the value chain. Despite a relatively small share of Asia in the global pie, India is now amongst one of the most preferred destinations and has come to occupy the image of an exporting hub for most of the major global OEM players. Almost all the big auto manufacturers of the world are either already or are in the process of outsourcing from India. AIL has realized the potential of component manufacture business. It owns in-house design engineering, rapid prototyping and mass manufacturing capabilities. AIL had an in-house CAD/CAE/CAM facility and decided to scale up the capabilities of this facility by acquiring a design engineering software company (a majority stake 51%) in Autoline Dimensions Software Pvt. Ltd. (Formerly known as Dimensions Engineering Software Services Pvt. Ltd.), which has expertise in design engineering services. Further it plans to expand capacities by setting up another plant at Chakan (Unit –II). AIL has taken efforts to shift from low margin products to high margin products. Autoline Dimension would be one of the future growth driver providing a boost to AIL’s revenue.
For FY09, AIL has reported net profit of Rs 4.68 cr. on net sales of Rs 350 cr. on consolidated basis.. On a equity of 12.2 cr., the EPS stood at Rs 3.84 and the dividend declared was 10%. From a turnover of Rs 51 cr. in FY-2004, Autoline's revenues scaled up to Rs 350 cr. in FY09. For the half year ended September 2009, the figures are net sales of Rs 198.23 cr. and net profit of Rs 6.67 cr. (up 68%) on consolidated basis. The EPS for first half stands at Rs 5.5. On Oct. 28, 2009, Autoline Industries USA, a wholly owned subsidiary of Autoline Industries announced that it has received orders to manufacture brake and clutch pedal assemblies from 2 US automakers. The new business will bolster the sales of US unit by US$ 40 Million over the next 4 year period
AIL, should be able to post a top-line of around Rs.400 cr., and PAT of Rs. 16-17 cr., giving an EPS of Rs.13-14 for FY10. The share is presently trading at Rs. 119, which discounts FY10E earnings by 8.8 times. In view of the improved results and good medium term prospects, Investors can start accumulating the stock at current levels and add more on declines for decent returns of 40%-50% over the next 6-8 months.
Latest Developments- Autoline Industries has drawn up a Rs 255 cr. brownfield expansion. This will be funded through internal accruals and term loans. The expansion will add another 1,000 employees to its 2,000-strong workforce. It will involve an additional 40 acres to the existing 100 and is expected to be over by 2011. The company has sought mega status (which translates into concessions in stamp duty and electricity tariff) for the project from the Maharashtra Government. Approval could be granted by January. The project is also eligible for industry promotion subsidy. The expansion plan involves ramping up the production line, creating a tool room and adding prototyping/designing facilities at three sites in Pune district. Autoline wants to become a complete designing, engineering and manufacturing entity for mechanical assembly systems in automobiles. The idea is to make components based on designs provided by carmakers. At present, the company has orders for designing and manufacturing pedal assemblies for Volkswagen whose facility is also at Chakan. It supplies the same part to Tata Motors for its Indica and Ace models.
valueinv@sify.com
9893200307
Sanjay Chhabria is an equity analyst and investment consultant based at Raipur (Chhattisgarh). At the time of writing this, he doesn’t have any position in the stocks mentioned above. He is bringing a weekly Investment newsletter “Market-View” since April 2001 to help small (retail) investors take an informed investment decision. He invites Readers to send him email to get free 1 week trial offer of “Market –View”. He also appears on CNBC TV 18(Mid cap radar). He welcomes comments, feedback & investor queries at valueinv@sify.com.
Under no circumstances does the information in this report represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute a solicitation to any person to buy or sell a security. While the information contained therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for the accuracy of its contents. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments.
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Src: Valuenotes, Economictimes, DP Blog and etc.