Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 03.11.2009

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls from Dt: 03.11.2009

This(Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls) will be a New Initiative of this blog to Publish Blog Author's Own Investment/Trading Calls for Short-Medium Term perspective. But All these Calls are not given on Purely Technical perspective. Most of these Calls are given by Blog Author from His past Investment/Trading experiences. So Do not expect More depth in Calls. Author has tried his best to give some calls for the benefit of Investors/Traders from his experience and from some media/web/news based call. So author request all the investors/traders to take/try these Calls as RISK CALLS. And Keep Strict Stop Loss Own (or) Keep Resi,Supp levels As Stop Loss for their Trading(or) Trade/Invest @ your Own Financial Risk. All type of Comments are Welcome about this New Initiative. Dont Forget to Keep Stop Loss and Again Author Remembering you that he is giving calls only from his past trading experience...



Nifty Future cmp 4707

Nifty's 200 DMA comes nearly at 4633-4626 levels.... That level should be strong support for the near term.... But if breaches that level, then could expect further 2-3 downside from there.... Immediate uptrend only above 4792 levels... Then 4880 level will act as a Strong Resistnce Zone.... Keep Watch these levels and Trade according to that... Other Supports are 4688-4654-4633...


Sterlite: Cmp 771

Stock has support at 737 levels... Short term investors Keep 705 level as Stoploss and Go Long.... Accumulate upto 737 range and Keep SL at 705 level... That is strategy... Buy in Small Qty...


Jetair: Cmp 379


Stock has support at 335-340 levels... Buy at that level if falls below 350 and keep Stoploss at 315 levels and Go Long.. Resi @ 415-420 levels... Furhter Resi at 434-455 levels.... Upside only above 420 levels...



Results Review:

1) HinduStan Lever, Suzlon, RCOM, Bharti, Hindalco results well Below mkt estimates...
2)PNB,Sterlite results well above mkt estimates.
3) Unitech Profit down 50%....
3) SBI, ICICI Bank Results above mkt estimates.... But ICICI Bank NPA is a concern...
4) Midcap results somewhat Ok than Largecaps...
5) Relinfra, JindalStel&Power are inline...




By Srisai

Market Views from Various Sources

Intermediate trend reversal confirmed


Prices collapsed in settlement week with the Nifty dropping 5.7 per cent to close at 4,711.7 points. The Sensex was down 5.5 per cent, closing at 15,896 points. The Defty was down 6.8 per cent with the dollar bouncing from over-sold levels

The poor sentiment was mainly due to continuous and heavy selling by FIIs. Although domestic institutions bought, they couldn’t match the supply on offer. Volumes were pretty heavy in both cash and derivatives segments. Advances were heavily outnumbered by declines. The BSE 500 dropped 6.2 per cent while the Midcaps dropped 7.8 per cent.

Outlook: The market is testing a critical support at 4,700 and there are some signs that it is over-sold. If the support holds, a short-term uptrend till around 4,950 level is possible. If the 4,700 support breaks, the next support is at 4,600. The intermediate trend is clearly bearish and net losses through November look likely. Expect a rise in volatility.

Rationale: The intermediate trend is into week two of bearishness, following 13 weeks of bullishness. Normally intermediate trends last between 6-10 weeks so net losses are likely through November. Chart patterns indicate a downwards breakout from range-trading between 4,900-5,100, with an initial target of 4,750, which has been exceeded. Volatility has already risen on the breakout.

Counter-view: Momentum indicators suggest the market is oversold in the short-term.

So there could be a bounce – especially if the FIIs reverse their attitude. The long-term trend is still positive as far as we can tell. In such circumstances, it’s possible that the intermediate downtrend could end fairly quickly. As of now, the maximum upside appears to be around 5,050. However, if the intermediate downtrend ends, the first signal would be 5,050 being exceeded.

Bulls & bears: There were sell-offs across most sectors except for sugar, which has been on a sustained bull run. The worst-hit sectors included banking and realty while the IT sector showed comparatively greater defensive strength. Metals also saw big losses following weak trends in international commodity markets. FMCGs displayed their traditional defensive strength in crisis situations.

This sort of across-the-board movement suggests that any market recovery will also occur across the board. As and when the market bounces, the worst-hit sectors will also rebound the highest. Hence, an optimist will be going long on the high-volume bank and realty stocks. Pharma and IT trends will depend to some extent on dollar movements.

MICRO TECHNICALS

Bajaj Hindustan
Current Price: Rs 196.45
Target Price: Rs 215

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The stock has corrected from recent highs and is consolidating on support. Keep a stop at Rs 192 and go long.

Book partial profits between Rs 210-215. There is a chance that the stock could rise till around the Rs 225 levels so it makes sense to retain around one-third of the original position above Rs 215.

TCS
Current Price: Rs 628
Target Price: Rs 600

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The stock is developing an encouraging pattern of higher highs and lows. However, it is in correction mode right now and likely to ease down till it hits support at around Rs 595-605. Keep a stop at Rs 635 and go short. Start booking profits at below Rs 605.

Dr Reddy’s Labs
Current Price: Rs 1,019
Target Price: Rs 1,070

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The stock has made an upwards breakout on reasonable volumes. It has a potential target of around Rs 1,070-1,100. Keep a stop at Rs 1,000 and go long. Increase the position above 1,040. Start booking profits above the Rs 1,070-mark.

Axis Bank
Current Price: Rs 907
Target Price: Rs 990

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The stock has hit a fairly strong support. If it rebounds, there could be a clear run-up till around the Rs 990 mark. Keep a stop at Rs 900 and go long. Increase the position if the stock crosses the Rs 930-mark. Start booking profits above Rs 970.

Mahindra & Mahindra
Current Price: Rs 921.95
Target Price: Rs 900

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The stock is still settling down and consolidating around support between Rs 900-930. It is likely to test the bottom of this range again. Keep a stop at Rs 935 and go short. Start covering the position at around Rs 905.

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Src: Business-Standard, EconomicTimes,