12 November 2009

September IIP up 9.1 per cent year/year: Government

September IIP up 9.1 per cent year/year: Government

EW DELHI: Industrial output rose at a faster-than-expected 9.1 per cent in September from a year earlier, data showed on
Thursday.


The median forecast in a media poll was for an annual rise of 7.3 per cent. Manufacturing production rose 9.3 per cent in September from a year earlier.

August's annual industrial growth rate was revised up to 11 per cent from 10.4 per cent previously. Industrial output rose 2.6 percent in the 2008/09 fiscal year (April-March), down from 8.5 per cent in 2007/08.

The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 2 basis points after industrial data came in better than market expectations. The yield on the 10-year benchmark bond rose to 7.36 per cent from 7.34 per cent before the data.

At 12:11 pm it was trading at 7.35 per cent. It closed at 7.33 per cent on Wednesday.


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Sept IIP up 9.1%; Experts cheer data but differ on upgrades


he Index of Industrial Productivity for September is up 9.1% as compared to 11% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year. A CNBC-TV18 poll had seen it up 7.14% as against 10.4%.

The August IIP number has been revised to 11% as against the provisional number of 10.4%. Industrial growth in the April-September period grew by 6.5% as against 5% YoY. Also see: Markets volatile, recovers post IIP data

Consumer durables and capital goods were the key contributors to the upmove.

IIP movement in 2009

Numbers

April

1.1%

May

2.1%

June

8.2%

July

7.2%

August

11%

September

9.1%

Sectoral Growth

September

August

Manufacturing

9.3%

10.2%

Minning & Quarrying

8.6%

12.9%

Electricity

7.9%

10.6%

Use Based

September

August

Basic Goods

6.7%

10%

Intermediate Goods

10.8%

14.3%

Capital Goods

12.8%

8.3%

Consumer Goods

8.2%

8.5%

Durables

22.2%

22.3%

Non-Durables

2.6%

3.7%

CNBC-TV18’s Banking Editor Latha Venkatesh says these numbers are for a pre-Diwali month. “One may want to revise their figures and wait for the October number to check out whether the demand pool has remained even after the Diwali de-stocking and re-stocking. That might be something which analysts will want to weight before they work out their final numbers.”

So, will economists plan to upwardly revise most of their IIP numbers? Yes, says Samiran Chakrabarty, Standard Chartered Bank’s Head of Research. “If one looks at the last three months, on an average we are clocking numbers which are even better than what we did in the peak of industrial boom.”

But Sachchidanand Shukla, Chief Economist, Enam, is convinced yet. "We are seeing continuing traction in consumer durables because of the government dole outs or the sixth pay commission. We have a favourable base till December. We also need to see what happens to the basic and intermediate goods, which constitutes about 60% of the index. With export numbers now moving up, the contraction is now getting narrower. By January, we should turn positive on the export side. So, we will have to wait for the next two months to revise our numbers upwards. We believe the second half is going to be more than 9%."

GDP forecast for FY10:

Chakrabarty maintains the 6.4% GDP number for FY10. "Going forward, we will probably look at revising it after this industrial growth numbers." Enam, Shukla says, is looking at a 6.3% number. But he won't revise the figure upwards till December.

Is a rate hike on the cards?

Shukla sees the Reserve Bank hiking the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by December and cites three triggers to bolster his case. "One, if prices don't come off till December. Second, the base will boost the IIP numbers till December. If that trend continues, it will be another trigger. Third, will be capital flows which keep gushing into the economy. If all these three parameters are positive, the RBI will have to react on the liquidity front by a CRR hike by December. But for policy rates they will have to wait and watch till March."

No, says Chakrabarty. "I don't see it happening in December. This is very odd year in which year-on-year comparisons should be kept aside. This is not a year to look at those numbers. This is a year to look at softer issues in the economy, not just the domestic economy but also at a global sense to figure out whether this recovery that we are seeing is on a sound footing or not. The exit of monetary stimulus should take into account all those softer issues also – not just headline numbers – before taking a final decision. I think the RBI would probably wait a while to exit from an interest rate sense. From a liquidity sense, the exit could come much earlier."




Src: EconomicTimes, Moneycontrol.com



Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 12.11.2009

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 12.11.2009

This(Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls) will be a New Initiative of this blog to Publish Blog Author's Own Investment/Trading Calls for Short-Medium Term perspective. But All these Calls are not given on Purely Technical perspective. Most of these Calls are given by Blog Author from His past Investment/Trading experiences. So Do not expect More depth in Calls. Author has tried his best to give some calls for the benefit of Investors/Traders from his experience and from some media/web/news based call. So author request all the investors/traders to take/try these Calls as RISK CALLS. And Keep Strict Stop Loss Own (or) Keep Resi,Supp levels As Stop Loss for their Trading(or) Trade/Invest @ your Own Financial Risk. All type of Comments are Welcome about this New Initiative. Dont Forget to Keep Stop Loss and Again Author Remembering you that he is giving calls only from his past trading experience...


Nifty Future cmp 5009

Nifty Future Resi @ 5039-5050-5076 levels... Supports at 4970-4957-4927.. Today IIP data... CNBC estimates around 7.14%... Inflation Data (Monthly) today...


MSCI India Index Rejig:

HDIL, SUZLON to replace Glenmark, Powergrid from Nov 30th or Dec 1st... Positive for Suzlon, HDIL in near term...


Neyveli Lignite cmp 156

Stock has surpassed key resi levels 135-140 and closed above that after a long time... If this holds then could see a target of 172-180 levels soon.. Keep Own Stoploss..


Kajaria Ceramics cmp 41

(Outside sources)

Buy For Longterm investments... Sources said that this company has done some pact with GAIL..... Supports at 35-30 levels...


Allied Digital (ADSL): cmp 248

Buy this Stock for Long term Investment.... Accumulate part by part...



RCF cmp 78

Every time stock bounces from 65-68 levels.... So if this holds, then stock may move to 85-90 levels.. Keep Strict StopLoss at 68....


Educomp cmp 782

CLSA has assigned downside target around Rs 580 levels.... But other Brokerages has assigned upperside target around 860-900 levels.. Lets watch this stock which target first to happen...



Keep Strict StopLoss in Trades (Or) Keep Own StopLoss (Or) Keep Given Resi, Supp as StopLoss for trading....


By


Srisai...

Heard on the Street - ET

Heard on the Street

Engineers India rides high on bonus issue buzz
The stock of Engineers India has gained over 24% in the past week on the BSE. The scrip

ended over 2% higher at close on Wednesday at Rs 1,428.25. Brokers say the stock is being driven by speculation that the company may announce a bonus issue of shares shortly. The other key trigger has been the announcement last week by the government that it planned to sell stakes in profit-making public sector undertakings.

Analysts point out that Engineers India was among the few companies unaffected by the slowdown in 2008. Even as the company’s earnings grew 61% in FY09, there was a steady increase in new orders. Engineers India is well-entrenched in high-end project consulting, which provides the company an edge when it comes to bidding for hydrocarbon, metal and infrastructure projects.

IPO issuers ready to eat humble pie
The dismal performance of some of the recent initial public offerings seems to be prompting some of the prospective issuers to be a bit more “generous” when it comes to pricing their issues. For instance, last month, a mid-sized Mumbai-based realty firm announced that it was looking to raise around
Rs 1,500 crore through an IPO. Market buzz is that the projected figure has been shrinking over the past couple of weeks. Last heard, the company will raise around Rs 1,100 crore.

BSE gets ready to launch its derivatives offering
The Bombay Stock Exchange, which is also Asia’s oldest stock exchange, is likely to launch a derivative product next month. Unlike the existing derivative products, which expire on the last Thursday of every month, the expiry of this derivative product will in the middle of the month. “The trade cycle will expire on the second Thursday of every month as against the current practice of expiry on the last Thursday of the month,” said an official privy to the development. He did not disclose further details about the product.

According to the official, the exchange has received market regulator Sebi’s approval for the product’s launch. The move is aimed at boosting the fortunes of BSE’s sagging derivatives segment, which has not been able to compete with rival NSE’s derivatives segment. Trading in BSE’s derivatives segment has been non-existent, while the daily total turnover on NSE is usually around Rs 70,000-80,000 crore. NSE’s dominance in the equity derivatives segment has been a cause of concern for the market regulators.

Contributed by Deeptha Rajkumar, Santosh Nair and Reena Zachariah

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Src:Economictimes.Indiatimes.com, Moneycontrol.com