Sensex ends FY10 with 80% gains; FIIs pump in $20 bn
It was an outstanding fiscal year - 2009-10 - for the Indian equity markets; the Sensex rallied 80% and Nifty surged 74%. FIIs came back in droves, pumping in close to USD 23 billion in India's cash market. India, in fact, was the second best performing equity market globally, next only to Russia in this fiscal.
Two big events that aided this rise - firstly a recovery in global markets on the back of numerous stimulus packages and secondly, a thumping victory for the Congress party in the Lok Sabha elections in May 2009.
Sector report
On the sectoral front, the BSE Metal Index was the star performer on the back of rally in prices of international commodities. Respective index shot up 210%. Jindal Steel & Power surged 256% and Hindalco was up 254%. Tata Steel gained 212% and SAIL rose 150%.
The Auto Index rallied 150%, as Tata Motors surged 310%. M&M was up 190%. Hero Honda and Maruti were up 85% each.
The BSE Bankex soared 140%, as Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and PNB surged 144-190%.
In the technology space, HCL Tech went up 263%, TCS up 200%, Wipro up 192% and Infosys up 105%. The IT Index was up 130%.
The BSE Oil & Gas and FMCG indices were the least performers in the year 2009-10. Respective indices were up 45% and 41%.
Stock performances
Among largecaps, IDFC was up 200%, Ranbaxy up 190%, Jaiprakash Associates up 168% and L&T up 147%.
Idea Cellular gained 34%. BPCL and ONGC were up 40%. RIL went up 44%. HUL rose just 1% and NTPC went up 13%.
However, Reliance Communications declined 4% and Bharti Airtel was down 1%.
Among the broader indices, the CNX Midcap Index was up 128% and BSE Small Cap Index up 162%.
In the midcap space, Jindal Saw shot up 510%. IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel, Orbit Corporation, Greaves Cotton and Yes Bank were up 410-458%. Gujarat NRE Coke gained 355%.
In the smallcap space, Fame India surged 740%. Unity Infra, Supreme Infra and Zydus Wellness rallied 555-675%.
Currencies and commodities
The US Dollar Index was down 5% while the Reuters CRB Commodity Index was up 21%.
Stock market gives investors 80% return in FY'10; best in 5 yrs
NEW DELHI: Investors have reaped a five- year best return of over 80 per cent from the stock markets in fiscal 2009-10, when judged by the
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Analysts, however, said that the momentum could be slowed in the coming fiscal as investors are expecting a lot from the market now, which may not come in until there is a correction.
The bulls were back with a bang in fiscal FY'10, offsetting the losses incurred by investors in the previous financial year.
The returns from investments in this fiscal have soared to 80.5 per cent. The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex settled at 17,527.77 points on March 31, 2010, from 9,708.5 points at the end of March 31, 2009. The Sensex had jumped to its two-year high level of 17,793 points on March 29 driven by strengthening of the rupee against the US dollar.
During FY'09, the 30-share index had plunged to 9,708.50 points from 15,644.44 points, losing nearly 38 per cent.
"The market has gained quite a lot and will continue to remain volatile in the coming days. Monsoon will be a deciding factor for the overall growth of the economy and that would in turn affect the capital market," Taurus Mutual Fund Managing Director RK Gupta said.
During fiscal 2007-08, the market provided a return of 20 per cent, while the same for 2006-07 and 2005-06 was 16 per cent and 74 per cent, respectively.
The fiscal has been a good one for the broader market with a host of new companies coming out with public offerings and three state run companies -- NTPC, REC and NMDC -- coming out with follow-on-offers.
Among the biggest gainers in the Sensex companies Tata Motors surged over 300 per cent, followed by Hindalco 240 per cent, Tata Steel 210 per cent, TCS 200 per cent and Wipro 190 per cent in financial year ending March 31, 2010.
Other major gainers include ICICI Bank 180 per cent, M&M 175 per cent and the index heavy-weight Reliance Industries 44 per cent.
"Returns have been widespread for the market but the coming financial year will not be too rosy. We are cautiously bullish on the market as a lot of expectations have been built up," SMC Global Vice-President Rajesh Jain said.
Analysts said at this juncture a correction is imminent in the market and the Sensex could trail the 20,000 level by the end of next fiscal (2010-11).
"FIIs may withdraw money if the rupee strengthens at this pace. It will pour in money again after the rupee comes back to the 47-a-dollar mark," Gupta said. The Indian rupee is currently hovering around the 44.97-a-dollar mark, at nearly 19-month high level.
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Emerging market currencies show cracks
Src: Moneycontrol, ET
Outlook: The market is likely to touch a new 52-week high sometime next week, beating the 5,310 mark it registered in early January 2010. But momentum is weak and so are volume indicators. Unless there's a pickup in trading interest, prices beyond the 5,300 mark will not be sustainable. Most likely, prices will remain in the range of 5,200-5,300.
Bull & bears: Among major sectors, IT continues to outperform the Nifty while the Bank Nifty’s performance has been more unstable. Big IT stocks have done well in the last week though there was some selling on Friday. Financials and bank stocks could be under pressure on Monday. Auto and auto ancillaries are seeing profit-booking after a sharp run up.