22 December 2009

Stocks trader's favoured the most in 2009: An analysis

Stocks trader's favoured the most in 2009: An analysis

Some stocks have had a great run in 2009. They have attracted traders and investors for the year round. CNBC-TV18’s Varinder Bansal reports,

These stocks are only punters delight – the way they have moved for the entire year with gains of anywhere between 2,000%. The marketcap of these stocks are well above most of the stocks we talk on the channel.

Kwality Dairy: Biggest winner of 2009?

Kwality Diary, a company with a market cap of Rs 2,000 crore, has gained nearly 2,000% in 2009. Looking at the one-year chart, the stock was at a price of Rs 5.5. It went to as high as Rs 1,360 and then there was a stock spilt from 10 to 1 and now the stock is trading around Rs 100.

On the financials front, FY09 the profit after tax (PAT) of this company was around Rs 10 crore and FY08 the PAT was nearly Rs 4.5 crore. So the company with market cap of Rs 2,000 crore is having a PAT of nearly Rs 10 crore.

The promoter holding in this company is interesting with four promoters and 32 individuals together hold nearly 93.5% stake in the security. The free float in the company is very less and that is why most of the stocks tend to react because of cornered shares in the public. Also, the existing promoters of this company bought this company in 2003 at the price of only Rs 3 crore and now see the way the stock has moved up. The company is only engaged in the diary business.

Gee Kay Finance and Leasing Co: Another trader’s delight?

This company has a market cap of nearly Rs 4,000 crore, which is even higher than IndusInd bank or Dena Bank or most of the PSU banks. The stock has gained nearly 1,800% and again in this case we have seen there was a stock split in the month of December and the stock started with a price of nearly Rs 4 and went to as high as Rs 560 and now after the stock split is trading at around Rs 80.

The volumes have been good in this stock. In the last 4 years for this company there is no profit for this company. The PAT of 2009 there was a loss of Rs 29 lakh and 2008 it was a loss of nearly Rs 4 lakh.

Promoter holding will be very interesting because the promoter holding in this company is only 0.5% and there are 26 individuals who hold nearly 90.86% equity in this company. So again you have distorted equity, which is spread only in 26-27 people and the rest 7-8% is with the public.

These are the few cases where you have seen huge gains but this is all punters delight, no fundamentals which are attached to both the shares.

Other outperformers of 2009:

Company Dec 31, '08 2009 Chg
Auro Pharma

Rs 168

429%

Mcleod Russel

Rs 49

427%

JSW Holdings

Rs 301

427%

Hexaware Tech

Rs 21

348%

Orbit Corp

Rs 62

339%

Uttam Galva

Rs 27

334%

Polaris Software

Rs 43

326%

HOEC

Rs 66

312%

Havells India

Rs 122

309%

Jindal Saw

Rs 44

307%

Deccan Chron

Rs 44

247%















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Thirteen year-end lists you have to read


This is a list of lists. Dedicated to all obsessive list makers and readers
1.
Time Magazine — Person of the Year:
The tradition of selecting a Man of the Year began in 1927, with Time’s editors contemplating newsworthy stories possible during a slow week. It was also an attempt to remedy the editorial embarrassment earlier that year for not having aviator Charles Lindbergh on its cover following his historic trans-Atlantic flight. While the designation is usually regarded as an honour, previous awardees include Hitler and Stalin. This year, the list of candidates is fairly controversial, and includes Iranian protestors and Somali pirates.

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2. Vanity Fair — Year in Pictures:
Vanity Fair images are often as important as the story — sometimes the images are the story. This list is a summation of the most iconic images to appear in the magazine in 2009. Past pictorials include the controversial, such as David LaChapelle’s with actor Mike Meyers dressed as a Hindu deity, and the heart-wrenching, like James Nachtwey’s images of Vietnamese children disfigured by Agent Orange.

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3. BBC — Sound of 2010:
The list is designed to find the best up-and-coming musical acts for the coming year. More than 130 of UK’s leading music critics and broadcasters name their favourite new acts and finally a long-list of 15 is prepared .

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4. GUARDIAN — Books of the year:
The Guardian’s guide to the Best Books of 2009 isn’t your usual, monotonous roundup of the best pickings. The British daily has asked leading figures in the arts to pick their books of the year, from novelist Nick Hornby, to fashion favourite Vivienne Westwood and even film director Sam Mendes. Definitely check out this list and enjoy choosing from a host of opinions. The only blot on file would be politician David Cameron’s choice of political diaries…can you say predictable?

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5. New York Times — Annual Year in Ideas:
This series from The New York Times Magazine is a digest of ideas that helped make each year, for better or worse, what it was. The ideas are not necessarily good ideas or even the most popular. They’re only alphabetically ordered. But they are ingenious, inspired, perplexing and some even outright illegal — a fresh selection of intellectual sushi. Enjoy.

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6. Amazon — Best of 2009 Books:
Amazon, the pioneering online bookseller, has two main lists out: The top 100 picks by their editors, and what sold most. The editors’ top pick is called Let the Great World Spin. Readers chose Dan Brown’s The Lost Symbol. There are also sub-lists by genre, so you can just go check out what interests you.

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7. Roger Ebert’s Movie Yearbook 2009:
Roger Ebert is an American film critic and screenwriter. He is known for his film review column (appearing in the Chicago Sun-Times since 1967, and later online) and his reviews are syndicated to more than 200 newspapers in the US and worldwide. In 1975, Ebert became the first film critic to win a Pulitzer Prize for Criticism. We recommend a copy of his annual movie yearbook which is predominately a collection of his reviews of that year. The heavy use of mocking sarcasm, dry wit and shocking candour makes it one of the most irresistible ways to lay 2009 to rest!

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8. Esquire — 30 Women We’ve Loved in 2009:
This one’s for the boys. Esquire, the original men’s magazine, was founded in the United States in 1932 as a reaction to the tyranny of women’s magazines during that time. And from its very first issue, there has always been an appreciation of women. The list is a recap beyond the Sexiest Woman Alive, and is accompanied by great photos of the great women of today. This year’s fab 30 include Candice Swaponoel, the new face of Victoria’s Secret, Italian beauties, an SNL favourite and a carpenter with an inventive use for walnuts!

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9. The Economist — The World In 2010:
The World in 2010 is the 24th edition of The Economist’s annual collection of predictions for the year ahead — with views from journalists, politicians and business people. The edition will be sold in 90 countries and translated into around 20 languages. So what are some of the forecasts for 2010? The World in 2010 predicts regime change for the UK, with a clear Conservative majority. Gordon Brown, are you listening?

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10. Time Magazine — Top Ten Everything of 2010:
The Mother of all year-end lists! Time magazine’s amalgamation of all the Top Ten’s of 2009, from the year’s best (or rather, worst) political gaffes, fashion faux paus, iPhone Apps, and even medical breakthroughs. Chart the highs and lows of 2009 from these 50 wide ranging lists.

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11. Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers:
From this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, to the brains behind Iran’s Green Revolution, Climate Change’s messiah Dr. Rajendra Pachauri and Nouriel Roubini, the economic Cassandra who actually did have a crystal ball — they had the big ideas that shaped our world in 2009. Read the list to see the 100 minds that mattered most in the year that was.

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12. Lonely Planet’s Best in Travel 2010:
Considering where to go in the coming year? Lonely Planet’s guidebook presents the top 10 countries, regions, and cities to visit in 2010, chosen by Lonely Planet’s global team. Expect old favourites, like New Zealand, chosen because of its spectacular landscapes, proud Maori culture and fine food and drink. Also mentioned are the obscure, like Fernando de which had only 9,000 foreign visitors last year.

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13. Time Magazine — 50 Best Web sites of 2009:
Clear out your bookmarks. You’re going to need the space for Time magazine’s roundup of 2009’s 50 offerings that are indispensable to navigating, shopping or just killing time on the Web. It’s a tough choice between Flickr, Twitter and YouTube.

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(Compiled by: Shloka Nath, Charles Assisi, Saumya Roy, S. Srinivasan)

By: Shloka Nath/Forbes India

More from Forbes India


Src: moneycontrol.com


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Stock Reports:


HCL Technologies, Kewal Kiran Clothing


Maruti Suzuki


Nava Bharat Ventures


SKF India, CMC India, Kalpataru Power


Weekly Technicals - Dec 21 2009


Weekly - Dec 21 2009

Src: DP Blog

19 December 2009

20% correction in global mkts likely: Mark Mobius

20% correction in global mkts likely: Mark Mobius


Executive Chairman of Templeton Asset Management, Mark Mobius expects a 20% correction in global markets. “That’s the kind of correction that we would expect in the bullish environment we've had for almost one year now. So, 20% should not be surprising. I was thinking this to be a buy situation resulting in a global 20% correction but it hasn't happened yet. However, I think we may see that. Of course on an individual market level it can happen. China has already corrected by that much. So that could certainly happen.”

China and India story

Bullish on China and India, Mobius said, “From a longer term perspective we are still quite bullish on both China and India. The growth rates are very high, inflation is low, money supply as you know globally still very high.”



‘In the middle of valuation range’

He feels the markets are in the middle of a valuation range. “At a low point in the last ten years it was one time's book. At the high point, it was three times of the book value and now it's about two times. So we are more or less in the middle of the valuation range. But as I said with the high money supply that we see, low interest rates cause derivatives alive and well. This trend is definitely with us and we think it will continue into 2010.”

On Commodities

Expecting commodity prices to move higher, Mobius said, he sees a lot of opportunity in the consumer space. “There are two sectors that we are emphasising. First is commodities, we believe that commodities will continue to trend upwards because the demand supply situation is such that we see high prices. The second area would be consumers—the per capita incomes are going up at a very rapid rate, thus I see a lot of opportunity in the consumer area.”

US on a growth path

The US economy is likely to see a recovery in 2010, according to Mobius. He sees the emerging markets too to do well in 2010, much in line with the US. “Though Ems have suffered on their exports, they would see a recovery in 2010. With this US recovery the entire global situation will look a lot brighter. I think the US is going to do quite well.”




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Heard on the street

Early JLR turnaround hope lifts Tata

Motors


Tata Motors was among the big gainers in Friday’s bearish session, with the stock gaining over 3% supported by strong volumes. On BSE, the stock closed at Rs 732.75, with 12 lakh shares changing hands compared with a two-week daily average of about seven lakh shares.

Players tracking the counter say the rise could have to do with some purchases by fund managers, convinced about a buy recommendation on the stock by JP Morgan on Friday. The brokerage has raised its rating on the stock to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’, and assigned a price target of Rs 825, after a meeting the company’s senior management.

Morgan is betting on a quicker-than-estimated turnaround at Jaguar Land Rover, because of improvement in the global economy, and also a sustained growth in the company’s domestic commercial vehicle business. Fund managers may be willing to take a medium-term bet, but derivatives traders seem confident that the stock is due for a correction.

Tata Motors December futures closed at a Rs 4 discount to cash on Friday. Open interest shrunk by 3.2%, indicating many traders with long positions would have used Friday’s rally to pare their positions.

Market seen in range as bulls, bears play safe

With the Nifty closing below the 5000-mark on Friday, the gloomy mood in the bull camp persists. Key indices have been range-bound for the past few weeks, and the “consolidation” is turning out to be longer than what bulls had thought. Even the staunchest of bulls are now bracing for a downturn over the next one month, with some saying that the Sensex could shed around 2000 points.

Those who have missed out on the rally this year are eagerly awaiting the correction with cheque books in hand, hopping to net some good bargains. But will the market correct as sharply as expected? Those gloomy/cautious /cautiously optimistic are not backing their words with actions. In other words, they are not selling the shares in their portfolios.


The mood in the bear camp is not upbeat either. Having lost money repeatedly over the past few months, trying to call a correction, bears are

lying low. Question is, if bears are reluctant to go short, and bulls don’t want to sell shares, what will bring about the corrections. Looks as though stock prices are likely to be range-bound for some more time, to the frustration of both bulls and bears.

Arshiya jumps nearly 50% in a month

Arshiya International appears to have caught the fancy of traders of late. The stock rose around 1% in a weak market on Friday, closing at Rs 188.25. Over the past one month, the stock has risen 43%. It is hard to see what bulls are excited about in the stock.

For FY09, the company reported consolidated revenues of Rs 500 crore, and an earnings per share of Rs 11.30. For the first half of the current financial year, the company has clocked revenues of Rs 228 crore and an EPS of Rs 4.31. Unless the company’s topline and bottomline grow significantly during the remainder of the year, the price-earning multiple of 17 looks stretched.

The extremely low-profile top executive of a domestic broking firm, with a sizeable stake in the firm, is said to be the self-styled advisor to the company, and is also pitching the company to institutional investors. Earlier this week, Arshiya’s subsidiary sold its Cyberlog product suite to Aurionpro Solutions for $10 million. Incidentally, the low-profile executive holds a decent stake in Aurionpro, too.

(Contributed by Santosh Nair)

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RIL continues to be top pick of MFs in Nov

See 12000 on Sensex before 21000: Shankar Sharma

See 2010 as a stock picker's market: PN Vijay

Gas case: Hearing ends; solicitor general makes final pitch

Report: Mark-to-mkt performance of IPOs of 2009

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From Economictimes

Flurry of IPOs set to hit markets in 2010

2010 may be a positive year for Indian investors: Credit Suisse

Trading pattern of recent IPOs | Potential stocks

Obama reaches climate deal with India, China, SA

Markets seen lacklustre; RBI move eyed

Low volumes may cause volatility

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Src: Economictimes, Moneycontrol