Market Watch: Stocks seen lower on global cues, RBI action

Market Watch: Stocks seen lower on global cues, RBI action

MUMBAI: Stocks are likely to open with a negative bias tracking losses across Asia. There will also be a knee-jerk reaction to Reserve Bank of

Top gainers & losers

India’s move late Friday where it hiked interest rates with immediate effect. Volatility is also likely to be high with the F&O expiry for the March series due later this week.

“The market continues to trade sideways with high volatility but ended in green. This short term trend can be reversed only if Nifty slips below 5,220 level. We can see markets going sideways and consolidating before we head towards the 5300 level. The RSI indicates that the markets are in the overbought territory, so one has to be cautious while taking fresh position at higher levels. The long term trend however of the market is positive until Nifty holds its 50-day moving average of 5,017, till then every dip in the market should be taken as a buying opportunity. Support for Nifty seen at 5,210- 5,180 and resistance is seen at 5,280- 5,330,” said Nirmal Bang Securities.

Asian stocks traded lower Monday after an International Monetary Fund official said advanced economies were under pressure to tackle the debt situation and on growing worries that central banks in Asia may step up efforts to curb inflation.

In a late evening action on Friday by the RBI, it has increased both repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points to 5% and 3.5% with immediate effect. This may have a sentimental impact on stocks Monday.

Meanwhile, on Friday, increased buying activity in the last half hour of trade helped the equity indices to close above psychological resistance levels. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 5262.80, up 16.9 points or 0.32 per cent. The broader index hit a high of 5269.95 and low of 5237.10. Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 17,578.23, up 58.97 points or 0.34 per cent. The 30-share index touched a high of 17600.87 and low of 17502.14.


Stocks that can turn out to be good bets for long run

Top 5 stock picks | Best mid-term picks

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New 52-week high by settlement?

The market alternated between sessions of tight range-trading and net gains. The Nifty closed at 5,262.8 points for a week-on-week gain of 2.45 per cent. The Junior closed at 10,607 points for a gain of 0.93 per cent while the Defty rose 2.4 per cent with the rupee slightly softer.

Breadth was reasonable with advances outnumbering declines but smaller scrips definitely underperformed the pivotals. The BSE 500 was ahead by 1.8 per cent. Volumes were low in both cash and derivatives segments. The domestic institutions remained moderate net sellers while FIIs continued to be strong net buyers.

Outlook: The market trend remains up. But momentum is weak and there are several divergent bearish signals. There’s support at 5,150, and resistance beyond 5,250. The intermediate trend has been positive for six weeks. Given settlement, there is a good chance that the intra-day volatility will rise. The market could establish a new 52-week high beyond 5,310, but it may also end next week in correction mode with net losses. In fact, these two possibilities are not incompatible and could occur in tandem.

Rationale: The low volumes and narrowing breadth (where small stocks are under-performing) are bearish divergences in a market that’s making gains. The positive long-term trend and the positive intermediate trend should together be sufficiently in-phase to test the previous 52-week high (5,310 on Jan 6, 2009). But the divergences also suggest a possible correction quite soon. There’s clearly defined support at 5,150 and obvious resistance beyond 5,250 and near the 52-week high.

Three things could happen. The market rises beyond the 5,310 mark but fails to hold on to its gains, closing out next week with net losses. The market zooms beyond 5,310, heading into a new 52-week zone. The market continues to range-trade between 5,150-5,250. The negative divergences make the first (new high and net loss) scenario look more likely. In that case, the Nifty may swing between 5,150-5,350 with a wider daily high-low range. A correction below 5,150 would push it down till 5,050.

Counter-view: The upside breakout came in the past three sessions although it wasn’t backed by serious volume expansion. The uptrend could be strengthened by short-covering in the settlement week. In that case, 5,310 may be easily broken and exceeded. However that would be dependent on volume expansions. Maybe the settlement will be the trigger for that.

Bull & bears: Among major sectors, IT continues to outperform the Nifty while the Bank Nifty’s performance has been more unstable. Big IT stocks have done well in the last week though there was some selling on Friday. Financials and bank stocks could be under pressure on Monday. Auto and auto ancillaries are seeing profit-booking after a sharp run up.

Bulls displayed a sudden burst of enthusiasm for telecom stocks in the last couple of sessions. Cement has made steady gains. Real estate continues to be among the weaker sectors. FMCG companies especially HUL and ITC are stabilising after heavy selling. Energy stocks have seen a lot of volatility but the charts appear to be net-positive.

MICRO TECHNICALS

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA
Current Price: Rs 1,073.5
Target Price: Rs 1,125

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The stock has corrected to hit firm support. It has the potential to bounce back till around the Rs 1,125 level. Keep a stop at Rs 1,068 and go long. Increase the position beyond Rs 1,090 and reset the stop loss to Rs 1,085. Start booking profits above Rs 1,120.

AXIS BANK
Current Price: Rs 1,156
Target Price: Rs 1,125

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The stock has seen heavy selling above the current level and it is likely to make a pullback till around the Rs 1,125-1,130 mark. Keep a stop at Rs 1,165 and go short. Start booking profits below Rs 1,135 and reset the stop loss to Rs 1,140.

INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE
Current Price: Rs 160.4
Target Price: Rs 145

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The stock has seen a fair amount of selling. It’s bound to test support at Rs 155, and if that is broken, it will fall to around Rs 140-145. Keep a stop at Rs 164 and go short. Increase the position below Rs 155. Book profits below Rs 145.

SAIL
Current Price: Rs 247.3
Target Price: Rs 255

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The stock has bounced off a solid support and its looking bullish with decent volumes in the past three sessions. It has a minimum target of Rs 255 and it could rise further. Keep a stop at Rs 242 and go long. At Rs 255, book 50 per cent profit and reset the stop to Rs 252.

RCOM
Current Price: Rs 167.95
Target Price: Rs 180

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Volumes have risen with prices. There’s a potential target of Rs 180. Keep a stop at Rs 164 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 169. Start booking profits above Rs 177. If you wish to hold a position beyond Rs 180, reset the stop to Rs 178.

Analysts' corner 22-MAR-10 Tech Mahindra’s recent deal restructuring with BT has been excessively discounted by the markets, even as positive news flow such as new deal wins, etc.

Smart Portfolios outperforms 22-MAR-10 True to its name, Smart Portfolios outclassed the benchmark indices once again.

Markets at a glance 22-MAR-10 Encouraging advance tax figures and S&P’s upgrade of India’s ratings outlook triggered renewed buying interest in Indian stocks.

Attractive strangles close to money 22-MAR-10 Derivatives trading was marked by low volumes and average carryover.

New 52-week high by settlement? 22-MAR-10 Low volumes and negative divergences.

The perfect hedge 22-MAR-10 Hedging a portfolio is an illusion, because a near perfect hedge delivers more than a risk-free return consistently.

Greetings, not so warm 22-MAR-10 While the past track record is not exciting, the year ahead is expected to be significantly better.

Not enough glitter 22-MAR-10 Although Shree Ganesh Jewellery House’ track record and growth plans appear good, the IPO pricing already captures the medium-term upsides.

Spreading its wings 22-MAR-10 While the Parkway acquisition is a long term positive for Fortis Healthcare, the upsides are priced in.

Retail thrust 22-MAR-10 A good track record and expertise in larger-sized diamonds are positives, but the IPO pricing leaves little room for upsides in the near-term.

Africa calling 22-MAR-10 Tura’s acquisition would extend Godrej Consumer’s foothold in the fast growing African markets.

Turnaround bets 22-MAR-10 A few stocks, which have been lagging behind due to various concerns, could see a revival in fortunes going ahead.

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Src: Economictimes, Business-standard

Know About Bharti-Zain

Bharti ties up $8.3 bn funding for Zain deal

Know about Bharti- Zain

Zain Group, is a mobile telecommunications company founded in 1983 in Kuwait as MTC or Mobile Telecommunications Company, and was later rebranded to Zain in 2007. Zain has commercial presence in 25 countries across Africa and the Middle East, with an estimated work force of 13,000.^[7] As of February 2010, about 60% of Zain's customers were in Africa although Africa contributed only 15% to the group's net profit. Zain has a total of 65 million customers. ^[8]

more @ ZAIN

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Airtel (BSE: 532454) formerly known as Bharti Tele-Ventures LTD (BTVL) is the largest cellular service provider in India, with more than 124 million subscribers as of February 2010^[update].^[2] With this, Bharti is now the world's third-largest, single-country mobile operator and sixth-largest integrated telecom operator. It also offers fixed line services and broadband services. It offers its TELECOM services under the Airtel brand and is headed by Sunil Bharti Mittal. The company also provides telephone services and broadband Internet access (DSL) in top 95 cities in India. It also acts as a carrier for national and international long distance communication services. The company has a submarine cable landing station at Chennai, which connects the submarine cable connecting Chennai and Singapore.'

More @ Bharti Airtel

Srx:Wikipedia.org

Market Views and News

Heard on the Street: Funds playing ‘long’ lap up Bharti Airtel


Funds playing ‘long’ lap up Bharti Airtel

Select long-term and contrarian funds are believed to be accumulating shares of telecom firm Bharti Airtel. Every fund manager has a sizeable exposure to the stock, given its dominant position in the telecom space. Less than three months ago, the consensus view was that the stock was likely to go through an extended period of downtrend because of the tariff war among cellular service providers.

But now, fund managers seem to have veered to the view that a downturn in the industry will spell more trouble for Airtel’s competitors and help Airtel emerge stronger once the trend reverses. On Friday, the stock closed at Rs 312, up about 4% from its previous close. While fundamental analysts are positive on the stock, as the company submitted an application for third-generation mobile services in all 22 services areas across India, technical analysts said that the stock is yet to cross its major resistance level between Rs 320-325. A clear trend would emerge only after the stock crosses that zone, technical analysts say.

Stock futures of ITC, HUL see build-up in open interest

Stock futures of ITC and Hindustan Unilever have seen a build-up in open interest, of late. According to brokers, some high net worth investors and proprietary desks have created a pair strategy involving the two stocks. As part of the strategy, they have gone short on ITC and long on Hindustan Unilever, which means ITC is expected to underperform Hindustan Unilever because they feel ITC’s rise in limited from here.

Buyers of ITC contracts are optimistic about the stock’s prospects, as they feel the company will be least impacted by the product price wars among consumer goods companies. A trader said, if ITC manages to cross Rs 262-264 on good volumes, then there is a possibility of more upsides. On Friday, the stock closed at Rs 260.75, down 0.2%.

Amtek Auto on slow track as an FII part-sells stake

Shares of Amtek Auto fell on Friday, as a foreign investor sold part of its holdings acquired through conversion of FCCBs, in the open market. The stock fell 2.5% to Rs 173, as one of the shareholders, NDMR BV, offloaded 85 lakh shares for Rs 146 crore in a bulk deal transacted on BSE.

The Netherlands-based investor had picked up a 14.7% stake in the auto ancillary company through conversion of FCCBs in February. Amtek Auto shares have been on a decline on selling from large investors, including a few FCCB holders who opted for partial exit after conversion. Apart from NDMR, Olympia Builders sold nearly 21 lakh shares on Friday. Parts of the shares were bought by Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund and Birla Sun Life Insurance.

(Contributed by Apurv Gupta, Nishanth Vasudevan & Vijay Gurav)


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Cipla to replace Sun Pharma in Sensex from May 3


NEW DELHI: Drug major Cipla will replace its peer Sun Pharmaceuticals on the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensex from May 3.

The Index Committee of the BSE, at a meeting held on March 19, decided to revise the composition of indices, the BSE said in a statement. Apart from the Sensex, the BSE has also announced changes in other indices like BSE-100, BSE-200 and BSE-500.

"Revisions in BSE-100, BSE-200 and BSE-500 index would be effective from March 29," the exchange said, adding the revision in the Sensex "shall be effective from May 3."

In the BSE-100 Index, pharma firm Lupin will replace its peer Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals. Further, the state-run power major NHPC, Shriram Transport Finance Company and UltraTech Cement are also being inducted into the BSE 100 Index, while public sector telecom operator MTNL will be excluded.

In the BSE-200 Index, 16 companies including Aurobindo Pharma, Cadila Healthcare and Oil India are replacing the NDTV, Television Eighteen India and NIIT.


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Airtel ties up $8.3-bn debt for Zain deal


NEW DELHI: Bharti Airtel on Sunday announced tying up of $8.3 billion debt for the proposed acquisition of the Kuwait-based Zain Telecom's African unit.

"The financing was over-subscribed with major international banks committing to underwrite the total amount," the company said in a statement here.

For $7.5 billion for financing, the lead - arrangers are Standard Chartered Bank, Barclays, SBI Group, ANZ, BNP, Bank of America-Merril Lynch, Credit Agricole CIB, DBF, HSBC, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

In addition to the dollar financing, the SBI Group has committed up to $1 billion in rupee loan to Bharti, the company said.

Bharti is in exclusive talks with Zain till March 25 to acquire the African operations of the Kuwait-based company.


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Src: ET, Business-Standard, DP blog and etc

RBI ups repo, reverse repo rates by 0.25%

RBI ups repo, reverse repo rate by 25 bps

MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank today raised its key short-term lending and borrowing rates by 25 basis points each as part of its tight money policy to combat inflation, which the government feels is a cause of concern. ( Watch ) The repo and reverse rate (short-term rates at which RBI lends and borrows from banks) were hiked to 5 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively and could make banks commercial lending dearer. "These measures should anchor inflationary expectations and contain inflation going forward," the Reserve Bank said a month ahead of the announcement of its annual monetary policy on April 20 for 2010-11. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has expressed concern saying inflation is heading to double digits from to 9.89 per cent at present while at the same time not giving up on growth. "As liquidity in the banking system will remain adequate, credit expansion for sustaining the recovery will not be affected", RBI said.

India likely to witness 8.3% GDP growth in FY 11: Report

MUMBAI: India is likely to witness an 8.3 per cent GDP growth in FY 11 on the back of a strong investment and consumption demand, a report said.

"We expect GDP growth to be around 8.3 per cent during FY 11, backed by strong investment as well as consumption demand," Dun & Bradstreet India (D&B), Economy Outlook 2010-11, said.

The industrial sector is expected to play a crucial role in driving growth in GDP during FY 11, the report said.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth is expected to remain robust at 10.3 per cent during FY 11.

Focus on infrastructure spending by the Government and an increase in investment demand by corporates along with improved consumption would provide an impetus to industrial production, it said.

But the report anticipated fears about growing inflation at double-digit levels, which may pose a threat to growth prospects.

"Elevated commodity prices do remain a major concern and if unaddressed could pose a threat to the economic growth prospects," D&B India, Economic Analysis Head, Yashika Singh, said.

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RBI ups repo, reverse repo rates by 0.25%

Src: ET and Moneycontrol.com and Etc

Morning calls

S&P upgrades India to 'stable'

MUMBAI: GLOBAL credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s on Thursday revised the outlook on India to `stable’ from `negative’ due to improved government finances—a move that could marginally lower the borrowing cost of India Inc and support equities.

The decision not only dispelled fears of an immediate downgrade, but also revived hopes that India’s fiscal position could now begin to recover. The agency, which identified inflation as the only downside, also affirmed the ‘BBB-’ long-term and ‘A-3’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on India. Ratings below `BBB-’ are non-investment grade.

Bond prices rose soon after the announcement, but slipped after RBI deputy governor KC Chakrabarty indicated that the central bank may hike interest rates before the April policy “if it is inevitable and the price situation warrants”.

The outlook revision follows the government’s decision to prune subsidies. “The decision to change the fertiliser policy to implement a nutrient-based pricing policy and to raise urea prices by 10% from April 2010 is a step forward for the reduction of subsidies. The budget also announced an average increase in the prices of domestic petroleum and diesel of 6% and 7.8%, respectively,” S&P said.

“The move is largely in line with expectations... We expect to see further positive rating action over the near term,” says V Srikanth, managing director & head of markets, Citi South Asia.

The immediate beneficiaries would be local lenders like Axis Bank, ICICI, Bank of India and Bank of Baroda, which are planning to raise $2 billion overseas and large corporate groups such as Essar planning to raise foreign currency debt. “The borrowing cost should improve by around 5 bps. Many Indian corporates are expected to hit the market in two to three months. There is also a pipeline of Indian issuers in the international market from the financial world and this rating improvement should help the pipeline get executed in the near term, “ said Munish R Varma, MD and head-global markets, Deutsche Bank India.

Last February, S&P had revised India’s rating outlook to negative after the government over-stretched its finances to introduce a fiscal stimulus prop up the economy.

On Friday, S&P credit analyst Takahira Ogawa said, "We expect India's GDP growth to be 8% in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011, which is higher than that of many other countries and exceeds our previous expectations.” In addition, Standard & Poor's views India's external position as resilient. "We expect the country's ratio of gross external financing need to current account receipts plus international reserves to remain stable at 77% in fiscal 2010."

The Union budget targets a general government (including central and state governments) deficit of 8.3% in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011, from 9.8% in the previous fiscal year. Besides, the government has indicated that it intends to follow the medium-term fiscal consolidation plan outlined by the 13th Finance Commission. The commission recommended that the general government deficit be reduced to 5.4% of GDP, and the ratio of general government debt to GDP be lowered to 68% of GDP by the fiscal year ending 2015.

However, the ratings continue to be constrained by the high government debt burden and deficit, and India's weak fiscal profile. The consolidated debt of India's central and state (general) governments is estimated at 80% of GDP (by our definition) in the current fiscal year while interest payments are likely to consume about 27% of general government revenues.

"In our opinion, the recent high inflation rate could also derail the stable macroeconomic and interest rate environments," said Mr Ogawa. S&P has said an upgrade would depend on the government's ability to reduce the public sector's deficits materially. Conversely, if the government continues its loose fiscal policy or there are policy setbacks on monetary, financial and economic fronts that lower India's medium-term growth prospects, it could result in a downward pressure on the ratings.

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Dollar carry trade may trigger market rally


Pre-Market: Stocks seen ranged; be cautious while taking fresh positions


Top 5 picks



Heard on the Street: FIs, HNIs lap up JSW Steel on steel price hike comfort


FIs, HNIs lap up JSW Steel on steel price hike comfort

Institutions and high net worth individuals (HNIs) have been accumulating JSW Steel shares over the past few days on expectations that the company could benefit from a hike in steel prices shortly. On Thursday, the stock closed at Rs 1,248.10, up 2% over the previous close after touching a 52-week high of Rs 1,251.80 intra-day.

According to analysts, since Chinese exporters have increased offer prices of re-rolling grade by $20 per tonne to $630, Indian steelmakers are expected to follow suit. However, it’s not clear whether these prices are sustainable due to additional capacities coming on stream. The steel industry in India is considered to be the world’s second-fastest growing market after China.

Investors flock to Bharat Elect on bonus issue hopes

Shares of Bharat Electronics have been in the thick of activity, of late. Traders are speculating that the company will use its cash reserves to announce a bonus share issue. A bonus share issue will increase liquidity in the stock, which tends to be choppy because of its low free-float.

According to institutional dealers, some domestic mutual funds have been paring their holdings in the stock in the past few weeks, while foreign institutions have absorbed this supply. Stock backers expect the company to be a key beneficiary of higher investments towards defence equipment. The stock closed at Rs 2,100, down marginally over the previous close.

UK bank’s MF arm seen looking to exit India AMC biz

The mutual fund industry is abuzz with yet another round of asset sale. This time, it is the mutual fund arm of a UK-headquartered bank. According to sources, ‘King Kong Bank Asset Management’ is scouting for a buyer. The foreign fund house has been looking to exit asset management business in India over the past few years.

It had approached several prospective buyers during the bull-run in 2007. Apart from ‘King Kong Bank Asset Management’, there are rumours of Orange Lion Mutual Fund also wanting to sell its Indian fund assets. Low investor turnout and increasing distribution expenses are said to be the main reasons for these asset management companies exiting mutual fund business.

HNIs turn to Apollo Hospital as they see a rerating

Shares of Apollo Hospital Enterprises are being accumulated by high net worth investors (HNIs) betting on a re-rating of the healthcare services industry. The stock has been inching up over the past couple of months, and closed at Rs 716.50 on Thursday, up 1.2% over the previous couple. Dealers tracking the stock say it is cheaper when compared to Fortis Healthcare, which has seen a sharp upswing in the past one month. However, institutional investors are not yet taking the bait. Apollo Healthcare has been a laggard for some years now and fund managers gripe that the management has done little to improve investor perception.

(Contributed by Apurv Gupta, Shailesh Menon & Santosh Nair)


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Daily News Roundup - March 19 2010

Joy of being stable!

Shree Ganesh Jewellery House IPO Analysis

Src: ET and DP blog etc

News Round Up

Sensex set to rise 11% by end-2010

Top 5 picks | Mid-term picks

'China faces the greatest bubble in history'

Pre-Market: Stocks to open flat

'GDP set to rise 4-fold by 2020'

Heard on the Street: Realtors woo MFs to their IPOs with goodies

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Daily News Roundup - March 18 2010

Heading a long way!

Daily Newsletter - March 18 2010

Exide Industries

Punj LLoyd

Stock Ideas

BGR Energy Systems

Maruti Suzuki

Persistent Systems IPO receives poor investor response

Src: ET and DP blog

Morning Calls

Mid-term picks | Top 5 picks


Pre-Market: Market rally to continue; Nifty resistance seen at 5,220- 5,250


Traders go ‘short’ on Bank Nifty futures

TCS can touch Rs 850, stoploss Rs 815: Rohit Shinde

It is time to sell Hindustan Unilever: Deepak Mohon

CEAT may hit Rs 165 levels: Rohit Shinde

Tata Steel, Sterlite Ind, Tata Motors look attractive: Gaurang Shah

Past Rs 1,050, RIL will be interesting: Deepak Mohoni

Renault eyes small-car ride with Leyland

HDFC looking to foray into education biz

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Simplex Infrastructures

Bulls gets festive; Nifty flirts with 5200

Persistent Systems (India) IPO Analysis

Src: ET, DP blog and Moneycontrol.com

RIL out of race for Canada's Value Creation

RIL out of race for Canada's Value Creation

NEW DELHI: Energy major Reliance Industries Ltd was out of race for the Canadian firm Value Creation, which it had bid for $2 billion. BP Canada

Stock Quote: RIL Top 5 picks Mid-term picks

has taken the controlling stake of the oil-sands company. ( Watch )

RIL had expressed its desire to buy Calgary-based Value Creation, which holds oil sands assets. Value Creation’s subsidiary Technoeconomics is the owner of a technology that helps produce oil from sand and upgrade bitumen - a major feed stock for petroleum - at a relatively lower cost.

Value Creation Inc's largest block of leases, Terre de Grace, covers about 290 square miles in the Athabasca region of Alberta.

RIL had earlier failed in its attempt to take over bankrupt petrochemical major LyondellBassell. India’s largest private sector company, which is looking to expand its global footprint, has targeted loss-making companies.

RIL is sitting on cash and cash equivalent of Rs 15,960 crore and treasury stock worth Rs 35,000 crore.

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Market Watch: Nifty above 5175; Reliance, BPCL, Cairn lead


Src: ET and etc

Morning Views

Top 5 picks


Mid-term picks


Check out stocks creating value from non-core business


Magma Fincorp a good bet for long-term investors


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Heard on the street


Failure to get nod for name change drags JRG Sec

Shares of JRG Securities fell over 2% on Monday as reports that the special resolution to change the name of the broking firm to ‘Inditrade Capital’ failed to get approval from shareholders. According to sources, the Baring India-promoted broking firm received support from just about 68% of the shareholders supporting the name change. A special resolution needs the approval of 75% of the polled shareholders to get it successfully passed.

Company officials were not available to confirm the result of the postal ballot. According to sources in broking circles, private equity firm Baring India has been running the Kochi-based broking JRG Secs for the past one year, after original promoters stepped down from the management due to differences with the PE firm. A month ago, JRG International Brokerage DMCC, JRG Securities’ Dubai subsidiary, removed the board members of JRG Securities (on the boards of JRG International) citing “low shareholding and non-participation in business matters” as reasons.

Punters build long positions in frontline stocks

Bargain hunters seem to be scrounging for value at some of the beaten-down sugar counters. On Friday, HDFC Asset Management bought three lakh shares of Dhampur Sugar through a bulk deal on BSE. On Monday, punters were seen building up long positions in frontline stocks like Balrampur Chini and Bajaj Hindusthan. Sugar shares have been falling for the past one month in line with declining international sugar prices.

Most analysts feel there could be some more downside in store as a lower-than-expected shortfall in globally production and government measures could keep sugar prices in check. So, the renewed buying interest in some of the stocks has come as a surprise. While fund houses could be trying to average out their cost of acquisition, punters could be betting on technical factors, as most of these stocks appear to be oversold in the short term.

Options see a build-up in far-month contracts

The options segment is seeing some build-up in far-month contracts. After seeing a noticeable surge in Open Interest creation in Nifty April 4800 Put earlier this month, now Nifty June 4800 Put saw a build-up in Open Interest on Monday. Though the quantum of Open Interest build-up is not very significant, analysts said the timing is surprising. This is because Implied Volatility of options is at its lowest level. Also, options sellers, of late, have generally refrained from writing in such far month contracts.

Contributed by Shailesh Menon & Nishanth Vasudevan

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Logistics Sector

Purvankara Projects

BL Kashyap

India Cements

India Cements

Reliance Industries Ltd

Shoppers Stop

Src: ET and DP blog

Market remains tightly range-bound

Market remains tightly range-bound

There was minimal movement in the stock market with prices stuck inside a very narrow range. The Nifty registered a rise of 0.95 per cent, closing at 5,137 points while the Sensex rose 1 per cent to 17,166 points. The Defty rose by 1.43 per cent as the rupee continued to strengthen.

Breadth was neutral or slightly negative. Volumes were low in both cash and derivatives segments. Smaller stocks under-performed. The Midcaps was down 1 per cent, the Nifty Junior was down 1.4 per cent and the BSE 500 was up a nominal 0.2 per cent. FIIs continued to be large net buyers while domestic institutions sold.

Outlook: The short-term trend is impossible to read and we will just have to wait for a breakout outside 5,050-5,150. Any such breakout is likely to be accompanied by volume expansion and likely to lead to a move of 100-150 points in the direction of break. The intermediate trend appears to be bullish and so is the long-term trend.

Rationale: The intermediate trend has now been up for five weeks since the market bottomed at 4,692 on February 5. Since it's in phase with the long-term trend, which is also up, it could continue to run North over the next 3-6 weeks. The next peak should clear 5,160. Thus net gains are slightly more likely. The danger signal for an intermediate trend reversal would be a drop below 4,850, so there is also room for a short-term downtrend.

The short-term trend is showing a classic consolidation pattern with very tight ranging and low volumes. Any breakout will probably come on higher volumes and the market could swing by 100-odd points in the very next session. So, if we see a close outside 5,050-5,150, expect a move till 4,950 or 5,250 at least.

Counter-view: Volumes have been abnormally low for a bull market with a favourable intermediate trend. Breadth also looks weak with smaller stocks underperforming pivotals. Both low volumes and narrowing of breadth are bearish signals. It is possible that this is the precursor to an intermediate reversal. In that case, as mentioned above, the key level to watch would be 4,850.

Bulls & Bears: Traders should stick to highly liquid counters because losses in small stocks as occurred last week are usually accompanied by absence of liquidity. The banking sector, NBFCs, housing finance companies and DFIs made some positive gains with the Bank Nifty up 1.5 per cent. The CNXIT also rose by 2 per cent though there was quite a lot of volatility within the sector. The auto sector saw profit-booking that could continue. Sugar stocks continued to slide

In other sectors trading was very choppy and stock specific. Metals were up one session and down the next – Sterlite closed strong while Hindalco looked weak but that could be reversed on Monday. Ditto for real estate where there was no clear sector pattern. In FMCGs, Hindustan Unilever took a hammering while Colgate looked strong and ITC recovered from the post-Budget sell off.

MICRO TECHNICALS

MARUTI SUZUKI
Current Price: Rs 1,463
Target Price: Rs 1,430

The stock has recovered off recent lows at Rs 1,315 and it is hitting resistance again. A slide till support at the Rs 1,430 level is a minimum expectation and it could fall till Rs 1,400. Keep a stop at Rs 1,470 and short. Book at least 50 per cent profits below Rs 1,435 and reset the stop to Rs 1,450.

---

LIC HOUSING
Current Price: Rs 810
Target Price: Rs 860

The stock has completed a falling wedge pattern and looks set for an upside breakout. It saw some volume expansion last week. The upside could be around Rs 860. Keep a stop at Rs 800, and go long. Add to the position above Rs 835 and reset the stop to Rs 820.

---

ORIENTAL BANK
Current Price: Rs 291.40
Target Price: Rs 280

The stock hit resistance above Rs 305 and has started a reaction. It is likely to slide till around the Rs 280 level. Keep a stop at Rs 297 and short. Increase the position below Rs 287. Book profits at Rs 280. If Rs 297 is broken, reverse the position and go long with a target of Rs 307.

---

COLGATE PALMOLIVE
Current Price: Rs 736.40
Target Price: Rs 775

The stock has a pattern that has already pushed it to recent highs. It has the potential to reach Rs 775, at least on intra-day basis, though projections in a new zone are always subject to greater error. Keep a stop at Rs 725 and go long. Above Rs 750, increase the position and reset the stop to Rs 745. Book profits above Rs 775.

---

TCS
Current Price: Rs 796.95
Target Price: Rs 840

The stock is testing resistance at around Rs 800. If it breaks out, it will be in a new zone with a tentative target of about Rs 840. Keep a stop at Rs 785 and go long. Above Rs 805, increase the position and reset the stop loss to Rs 800. Clear the position above Rs 835.

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Persistence pays 15-MAR-10 Persistent Systems’ ability to grow its earnings at a steady rate and improving fundamentals make its offer investment worthy.

On a fast lane 15-MAR-10 Excellent growth prospects, an experienced management, strong parentage and reasonable valuations makes the ITNL IPO attractive.

Secure no more 15-MAR-10 The sale of Zicom's security business has raised concerns over deceleration in growth rates going forward.

Tight fit 15-MAR-10 Stiff valuation and high dependence on the distributor channels are key concerns for the Pradip Overseas IPO.

Road to riches 15-MAR-10 Despite some near-term issues, the infrastructure sector provides excellent growth opportunities which could translate into superlative gains for investors.

Fund managers in buy mode 15-MAR-10 The fund managers were riding the bulls last week while the broader markets moved sideways.

Markets at a glance 15-MAR-10 Indian bourses underperformed several global peers due to lack of positive triggers.

Analysts' corner 15-MAR-10 In the last conference call after the announcement of the company’s December 2009 quarter results, the management indicated the launch of five new projects and the first phase of the Mandwa project over the next 3-6 months.

Bet on rising volatility 15-MAR-10 Another week of tight range trading saw volumes dissipate in the derivatives segment.

Market remains tightly range-bound 15-MAR-10 Traders will have to wait for a breakout outside 5,050-5,150 for short-term direction.

'Gaining market share is our focus' 15-MAR-10 After a tough year, the retail sector is slowly getting back on its feet on the back of increasing consumption.

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Analysts' picks: Thermax, Sun TV, Titan Ind, Aditya Birla Nuvo

SKS Microfinance may hit Street with Rs 1,000-cr IPO

CEAT

Market may open lower on weak Asian stocks; inflation data, advance tax figures awaited

Daily News Roundup - March 15 2010

Monday morning exhaustion!

Apollo Tyres

Persistent Systems IPO Analysis

Src: ET and DP blog and Business-Standard

A miracle called Tirupur!

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One look at the unruly traffic, the noise, the pollution and the dusty, dug-up roads and you could be forgiven for wondering if you are in one of the many such small towns that dot the Indian landscape. But you couldn't be more wrong.

This place is pretty special, although there is no indication to the fact that it is one of the largest foreign exchange earners for India. Or that the biggest global brands get their garments made in this small city and that the garments made here are sold in the largest retail stores across the world.

Welcome to Tirupur (occasionally spelled Tiruppur), a city of around 600,000 people in Tamil Nadu. It has a population of over a million in the urban agglomeration and has been registering an annual growth of 30 per cent since 1998.

This city exports knitwear worth Rs 11,000 crore (Rs billion) (Rs 110 billion) a year but it has no airport -- the nearest one is in Coimbatore (50 km away) and the nearest seaport is in Chennai.

The first stop for any international buyer of Indian garments is Tirupur. Buyers from 35 countries frequently visit Tirupur. Tirupur can deliver customised samples in less than 12 hours; half a million pieces in a matter of days.

Click NEXT to read on. . .

Image: A worker arranges coloured skeins of yarn on a roof at a hand-dyeing factory.
Photographs: Reuters

Next

Read this article without fail

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Other USeful Articles from Rediff.com

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Src: Rediff.com

Know A Person, Website and Company

Person

Carlos Slim

Carlos Slim Helú (Spanish pronunciation: [ˈkarlos eˈslim eˈlu], Arabic: كارلوس سليم حلو‎), simply known as Carlos Slim (born January 28, 1940), is a Mexican engineer, businessman and philanthropist largely focused on the telecommunications industry. He is currently the wealthiest person in the world with a net worth of around US$53.5 billion through his holdings.^[1][3]

Slim has a substantial influence over the telecommunications industry in Mexico and much of Latin America. He controls Teléfonos de México (Telmex), Telcel and América Móvil companies. Though he maintains an active involvement in his companies, his three sons—Carlos, Marco Antonio and Patrick Slim Domit—head them on a day-to-day basis.

More @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Slim

Website:

http://www.wix.com/

Company:

Hindustan Unilever

Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) (BSE: HUL) is India's largest fast moving consumer goods company, touching the lives of two out of three Indians with over 20 distinct categories in home & personal care products and food & beverages. They endow the company with a scale of combined volumes of about 4 million tonnes and sales of over Rs. 13,000 crores^{[citation needed]}. HUL is also one of the country's largest exporters; it has been recognised as a Golden Super Star Trading House by the Government of India.

HUL was formed in 1933 as Lever Brothers India Limited and came into being in 1956 as Hindustan Lever Limited through a merger of Lever Brothers, Hindustan Vanaspati Mfg. Co. Ltd. and United Traders Ltd.. It is headquartered in Mumbai, India and has an employee strength of over 15,000 employees and contributes for indirect employment of over 52,000 people. The company was renamed in June 2007 to “Hindustan Unilever Limited”.

More @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindustan_Unilever

Src: Wikipedia.org and etc

Today IIP Data

Views on NMDC FPO


Fortis a potential bet


Nifty to face resistance at 5180-5200


Market awaits IIP, Sensex holds 17000




Watch RIL, Sterlite... RIL breakout above 1035-1045 levels. Sterlite breakout above 829-835 levels. Keep Watch.


Buy NMDC for Purely Long-term investment. Buy Fortis Healthcarefor Short-Term gains.



Src: ET and DP blog

Forbes rank: Mukesh, Mittal in World's top 10 billionaires club

Forbes rank: Mukesh, Mittal in World's top 10 billionaires club


WASHINGTON: Mukesh Ambani and Lakshmi Mittal figured among world's top ten billionaires as Mexican tycoon Carlo Slim Helu beat Americans Bill

Gen Y CEOs | World's Top 10 CEOs | India's top 10 biz houses | Savvy girls in their twenties are new scions | Men & women behind India Inc's top guns

Gates and Warren Buffett to become the wealthiest person on earth. ( Watch )

Besides fourth ranked Reliance Industries chairman Ambani and fifth placed steel czar Mittal, four other Indians were among top 50 in 2010 Forbes list of the World's Billionaires released Wednesday with as many 49 Indians joining company with the planet's 1,011 richest people.

With his fortune swelling to an estimated $53.5 billion, up $18.5 billion in 12 months, Slim surged ahead of Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates, who had held the title of world's richest 14 of the past 15 years, the US business magazine noted.

Gates, now worth $53 billion, is ranked second in the world. He is up $13 billion from a year ago as shares of Microsoft rose 50 percent in 12 months. Buffett's fortune jumped $10 billion to $47 billion on rising shares of Berkshire Hathaway. He ranks third.

Eleven countries have at least double the number of billionaires they had a year ago, including China, India, Turkey and South Korea.

Fourth placed Mukesh Ambani with a fortune of $29 billion has global ambitions, Forbes said. So has his younger brother Anil Ambani ranked 36 with a $13.7 billion fortune.

Fifth ranked Lakshmi Mittal with a fortune of $28.7 billion is "looking to expand in his native India; wants to build steel mills in Jharkhad and Orissa but has not received government approval," Forbes noted describing him as "London's richest resident" who oversees ArcelorMittal, world's largest steel maker

Azim Premji with a fortune of $17.0 billion was ranked 28. "Software czar chairs $5.5 billion (revenues) Wipro, country's third-largest software exporter. Reported jump in net profits in last 2 quarters, signaling a rebound for US-dependent outsourcing giant."

Shashi & Ravi Ruia brothers took the 40th spot with a fortune of $13.0 billion. Their "$15 billion (revenues) Essar Group has weathered downturn and embarked on an expansion drive in all its businesses, including steel, oil and power."

Last among the Indians in top 50 was Savitri Jindal, ranked 44th, with a fortune of $12.2 billion. She took over as head of O.P. Jindal Group after her husband died in a helicopter crash in 2005.

Among other Indians on the billionaires list were Kushal Pal Singh (74), Kumar Birla (86), Sunil Mittal (87), Anil Agarwal (113), Adi Godrej & family (148), Shiv Nadar (201), N.R. Narayana Murthy & family (616), Rahul Bajaj (880) and Vijay Mallya (937).

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Mukesh Ambani richest Indian for second year: Forbes

Mukesh Ambani, chief of petrochemicals giant Reliance Industries (RIL), has retained the title of being the world's richest Indian for the second consecutive year with a networth of $29 billion in the Forbes' list of wealthiest people on the planet.

Mukesh has been ranked fourth in the global list, topped by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim ($53.5 billion), up from the seventh spot in 2009.

Leading the pack of 50 Indians in the list, he has added over $9.5 billion to his networth in the past 12 months.

Mukesh is followed by steel czar Lakshmi Mittal, who ranks fifth on the global list with a fortune of $28.7 billion. Mittal, has gained over $9 billion in the last year.

Wipro chairman Azim Premji, the next Indian on the list, is far below at the 28th place with a networth of $17 billion, although his rank has skyrocketed from the 83rd position last year with an addition of over $11.3 billion.

The richest Indian's brother, Anil Ambani, who was ranked at the 34th position in 2009, slipped two positions below to the 36th spot despite an increase of $3.6 billion in his networth at $13.7 billion.

Shashi and Ravi Ruia, the promoters of the Essar Group, were ranked at the 40th position, up from 86th last year, with a net worth of $13 billion.

The cumulative wealth of Indian billionaires has jumped by $118.9 billion and now stands at about $227.9 billion.

The Indian presence has doubled to 50 (from 24 a year ago) in the club of world's billionaires. "The world has 1,011 10-figure titans, up from 793 a year ago," Forbes said.

The league of 10 richest persons in the world now includes just two Indians -- Mukesh Ambani and Lakshmi Mittal.

There are, in fact, five resident Indians (up from two last year) among the 50 richest persons in the world, as Mittal is an Indian citizen, but resides in the UK.

Nine positions among top 100 from across the world are occupied by Indians, which include Mukesh Ambani (4th; $29 billion), Lakshmi Mittal (5th; $28.7 billion), Azim Premji (28th; $17 billion), Anil Ambani (36th; $13.7 billion), Shashi & Ravi Ruia (40th; $13 billion), Savitri Jindal (44th; $12.2 billion), K P Singh (74th; $9 billion), Kumar Birla (86th; $7.9 billion) and Sunil Mittal (87th; $7.8 billion).

Besides, the top 20 Indians on the global rich list include Anil Agarwal (113th; $6.4 billion), Pallonji Mistry (129th; $5.8 billion), Adi Godrej & family (148th; $5.2 billion), Gautam Adani (167th; $4.8 billion), Dilip Shanghvi (173rd; $4.6 billion), Shiv Nadar (201st; $4.2 billion), G M Rao (297th $3.2 billion), Malvinder & Shivinder Singh (297th; $3.2 billion), Uday Kotak (316th; $3 billion), Kalanithi Maran (342nd; $2.9 billion), Subhash Chandra, Micky Jagtiani and Indu Jain ranked at the 354th spot with a net worth of $2.8 billion each.

The list is dominated by Americans, two of whom have been ranked at the second and third positions -- Bill Gates and legendary investor Warren Buffett.

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Fund manager's guide on D-Street

Five Android phones that are expected in India soon

China overheating fears grow, spurring tightening talk
11 Mar 2010, 1805 hrs IST, REUTERS

Chinese consumer inflation spurted to a 16-month high in Feb and economic data displayed broad-based strength. Greece financial crisis | Lighter side of recession

India aims to be world's fastest growing economy

Forits jumps 5% on Parkways Holdings deal

Market awaits IIP, Sensex holds 17000

Pradip Overseas IPO Review

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Src: ET and DP blog etc