06 January 2008

Sensex targets for 2008 : ET

Sensexbs targets for 2008

The current bull run on the Indian bourses has surprised even the most optimistic analysts and has made a mockery of all predicted targets. Although the market has seen substantial value-based corrections — the one after the NDA debacle in May ’04, the commodity-led correction in May-June ’06 and last year’s sub-prime related correction — it has consistently managed to shrug off these setbacks and bounce back to make newer highs.

It has also made a fool out of all those who have used these corrections to write a bull obituary. So, as the bull market enters its fifth year, we set out on the arduous task of finding out the possible targets for the Sensex in ’08. In the process, we stumbled upon a certain method of technical analysis based on Fibonacci ratios, which have seen considerable success in finding the annual targets of the Sensex in the past. To put the method in place, we considered the Sensex’s monthly charts in a calendar year.

We then subtracted the lowest monthly closing from the highest monthly closing, taking into account the Sensex levels at the end of each month. This difference gave us the range for that particular year. We then multiplied this range with the Fibonacci ratios of 0.382, 0.618, 1 and 1.618 to get various multiples. Then these multiples were added to the tops and subtracted from the bottoms of that particular year to give us the targets and supports for the next year. For example, the highest and lowest monthly closes for the Sensex in ’04 were 6602.69 in December and 4759.62 in May, giving us a range of 1843.07.

This value of 1843.07 multiplied to the Fibonacci ratio of 1.682 gives us 2982.08. And 2982.08 added to the highest monthly close of ’04, i.e. 6602.69 gives us 9584.77, which is strikingly close to the top we saw in ’05, i.e. 9442.98. LOOKING AHEAD As we can see from the table below, at least one among these Fibonacci ratios has given us a target that is in a range of +/- 5% of the final realised value of the Sensex.

Taking this calculation forward, the highest monthly close of the Sensex in ’07 was 20286.99 in December. Similarly, the lowest monthly closing value was 12938.09 in February, giving us a range of 7348.9. If we multiply this range to the various Fibonacci ratios like 0.382, 0.618,1 and 1.618, the corresponding multiples are 2807.28, 4541.62, 7348.9 and 11890.52 respectively. So, in order to find the Sensex targets for ’08, we added these multiples to the highest monthly closing of the Sensex in ’07, i.e. 20286.99.

So, the possible targets of the Sensex in the year ’08 at 0.382, 0.618, 1 and 1.618 Fibonacci ratios are 23094.27, 24828.61, 27635.89 and hold your breath, 32177.51, respectively. SHOW ME THE BRAKES However, as the market keeps heading northwards, the margin of safety keeps getting smaller for an investor. This further enhances the importance of an appropriate stop loss. In order to find that for the Sensex, we looked into various technical indicators, besides the ones based on the above-mentioned Fibonacci ratios.

The stop-loss level for the Sensex will vary from trader to trader based on his/her trading horizon. For a very short-term trader, the stop loss will be the rising trend line joining the bottoms made on October 22, November 22 and December 19. This value is roughly around the 19400 mark at close on December 31.

On the other hand, a long-term investor can use the simple 200-day moving average (DMA) as a stop-loss level, which at close on December 31, was at 15995. Just how important this 200 DMA is for the overall continuation of the bull market can be gauged from the fact that after languishing below the 200 DMA for a long time, the Sensex moved above it in May-June ’03, signalling the beginning of the bull market. In the subsequent years, this 200 DMA has provided the market stunning support and has been broken only twice — during the NDA debacle in May ’04 and the commodity-led crash of May ’06.

However, on both these occasions, the market has managed to bounce back above it to signal the continuation of the bull market. Moreover, the Sensex has got support and bounced back from the 200 DMA on many other occasions, including during the recent subprime-related crash. So, a decisive close below it, in all probabilities, will signal the end of the bull market.

However, for a more optimistic investor, the final level to watch out for is the lowest monthly close in ’07 — 12938.09 in February. A close below this will mean that the Sensex will have made a lower low for the first time since the beginning of the current bull run, signalling its end. Another point to consider is that post the April ’92 peak of around 4500, the Sensex spent 11 long and painful years in a consolidation mode with several bottoms around the 3000 mark.

Although it tried to break out of this range and even managed to make a new high in late 1999, early ’00, this break-out proved out to be a false one and it once again slid to make three more bottoms around the 3000 mark. The real break-out came in June ’03 when the Sensex said a final good bye to the 3000 mark and set out for the sky. A break-out from an 11-12 year consolidation is generally seen as a very powerful break-out and the ensuing uptrend can last for many years, if not decades. Moreover, the fact that the Sensex has continuously made higher tops and higher bottoms suggests that the bull run is strongly in place.


Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.

05 January 2008

ET Top Stories

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com



Bulls likely to stage come back next week: Bharat Dalal
Anil Ambani seeks divine blessings prior to IPO launch
RBI allows FIIs to purchase equity of Zee News

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Tata Steel to begin construction of 6 MT steel plant
Hampshire Hotels to invest Rs 5,000 cr in India
TN announces pongal bonus for employees
Jyoti Basu supports Buddhadeb's view on capitalism

Billion dollar IT outsourcing deals to decline in '08
Video parlours biggest threat to Indian film industry
Salem to become total banking district before April
Rajinikanth replaces Shah Rukh Khan in India's costliest movie

Singapore's Changi eyes stakes in 10-15 Asian airports
VC/PE funding doubles in 2007, touches $14 bn
Allow cable operators, ISPs to offer Net TV: TRAI
Collecting & preserving brochures and posters of theatres

SAIL eyes JVs for coking coal projects in India, abroad
Bush weighs stimulus package to put economy back on track
Forex kitty swells $2.8b to $276 bn
Stocks to buy: Blue Star, Ruchi Soya, Simplex Infra, Kalyani Steels

No takers for Indian Depository Receipts, i-bankers blame it on lack of will



Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.

VC/PE funding doubles in 2007, touches $14 bn: ET

VC/PE funding doubles in 2007, touches $14 bn

BANGALORE: The Indian VC/PE juggernaut keeps rolling. VC/PE investments into the country in 2007 have touched $14.2 billion, almost double of what it clocked in 2006 at $7.5 billion. The number of deals stood at 390 compared to 299 deals in 2006.

The figure of $14.2 billion does not include Temasek’s investment of $1 billion in Bharti Infratel announced late in December 2007. It also excludes real estate investments. According to Venture Intelligence India, which tracks VC/PE investments in India and compiles the data for Indian Venture Capital Association, VC investments (seed, early stage and growth capital) accounted for $560 million across 100 deals in 2007.

IT/ITeS accounted for 70% of the deals, healthcare & lifesciences 10% while other hot sectors were media, telecom, retail and food & beverages. The average deal size rose to $37 million in 2007 compared to $25 million in 2006. VC investments’ contribution though has decreased to less than 5% from 35% of total investments the previous year.

This is mainly due to the increase in mega deals (over $200 million investments) in 2007. Arun Natarajan of Venture Intelligence said, “we saw eight mega deals in 2007 compared to four in 2006. These include the over $760-million investment by Carlyle and Citigroup, Dubai International Capital’s buying 2.87% stake in ICICI Bank and NSE’s stake sale to various investors like NYSE, Goldman Sachs, General Atlantic and Actis.”

The surge of mega deals in the financial sector has put BFSI sector as the numero uno segment as far as value goes accounting for about $4 billion in investments. However in terms of deals, BFSI was in third spot with 50 deals. IT/ITeS ranked first in number of deals with 91 deals valued at $1 billion while manufacturing saw 60 deals with a value of $1.6 billion. It has to be said here that 70% of the IT/ITeS deals were VC investments.




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BusinessWorld Magazine Articles

http://www.businessworld.in/content/section/5/27
Volume 27 Issue 34.
For the week 8-14 January 2008,
Released on 7 December 2008.


COVER STORY
Profile
Tatas’ Titan
Interview: Ratan Tata, chairman, Tata Group
‘The Mindset Has Changed’
Corporate
Eyes On The World
----------------------------------

IN THE NEWS

Regulators
To Each His Own
Banking
Switching Trouble
Media
Shoring Up Valuations
Commodities
Bullion Express

----------------------------------

IN DEPTH

Stockmarket
The Stakes Are High
Universal Access
A Bumpy Ride
Philanthropy
Charity As Enterprise
Finance
New Risks, New Roles
Auto
Automobiles Exposed
Tech Talk
That Sweet Spot

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Source: http://www.businessworld.in/content/section/5/27. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.

MoneyToday (Jan 10,2008) Magazine Articles

Money Today
Latest Issue January 10, 2008


Cover Story
All about global investing
Tanvi Varma and Narayan Krishnamurthy
For over a decade, Indians have been global consumers. It’s time to take the first step to becoming global investors. We show you the options abroad.


Now & Then
Public good
Let's take a closer look at how inflation affects your finances.

My Idea
Wealth from health
A physician by profession, Tarun Sahni, 49, runs a sports academy on weekends.

Sector Scenario
A powerful story
Ask Securities is bullish on the power transmission and distribution sector and expects some power-packed performances in the coming years.

Query Corner
I wish to save Rs 20 lakh...
Congratulations to you on several counts. Firstly, you have a very clear vision of your financial goals. You will do well to start investing for these goals right away.

Upfront
Big isn't the best
Many of us have problems with our mutual fund agent — the dealer or distributor who mis-sold a fund. Can you change your fund agent without surrendering the policy you bought through him? Find out.

Talk Back
Please suggest some good schemes for short and long term
It will be incorrect to suggest names of mutual funds without ascertaining their suitability to an individual's investor profile and financial goals.


MT Basics
Financial resolutions for 2008
Follow these financial resolutions and watch your wealth grow. Money Today gives you easy-to-follow guideline.

Book Review
Basics of mutual fund investing
Devangshu Datta
Using a simple style, this ambitious book aims to help lay investors overcome their fear of learning the basics of mutual funds. Though targeted at a US audience the book is useful to Indian readers too.

Portfolio Doctor
Late but good start
Bangalore-based Anand Paladhi must invest all his savings in equities through mutual funds to maximise the earning potential of his savings.

Stocks
Doors that can open to profits
Mudar Patherya
Don't scoff at this metal door fabrication company. Shakti Met-Dor supplies customised doors for use in IT, telecom, pharma and residential applications. And there’s a lot of growth in store.
Market Watch as on Dec 19, 2007
Using idle cash to buy blue chips
Pick good stocks even if costly
Oil, steel stocks perform well

Mutual Fund
Don’t lose your balance
Kamya Jaiswal
Your balanced fund may not be investing in equities and debt in the same ratio as you thought. It’s time you discovered its asset allocation mix.
Contrarian view
LICMF Children’s Fund way ahead of the rest
'Stick to a simple investment plan'


Insurance
Insure your loan
Priya Kapoor
Structured mortgage insurance can help your dependents keep the roof over their head even if you’re not around to repay your home loan.

Tax
Will Esops attract fringe benefit tax?
Yes, Esops will attract fringe benefit tax at the time you exercise your option of taking the stocks offered by your company.

Real Estate
Amritsar, an NRI attraction
The border city of Punjab has for long attracted NRIs as tourists (Golden Temple being the main draw) and as investors in housing. The 2004 trade pact with Pak has added a new appeal.


New Business
Success on call
Rajshree Kukreti
From a sales executive with a directory service to the owner of one, VSS Mani’s is an instructive story of what it takes to be an entrepreneur.

Investment
Predictions for 2008
Here's a list of what we expect 2008 to bring for us in terms of investments, and finance in general. Take a look.
Learnings from 2007


Technology
All that's USB
Ajay Singh
You may not have the whole world in your hands, but with a Universal Series Bus (USB) port you're nearly there. After all you can plug almost anything into a USB port now.

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Business Today Articles ( Jan 13, 2008)

16th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE

Cover Story
A gaze into the crystal ball
If the year gone by was a belter, 2008 promises to be another party. While the immediate prospects don’t look promising, the year should eventually turn out well for everyone, if not better.


21 young leaders for India's 21st century
Check out the young leaders in slide show
Slide show: The biggest newsmakers of 2007
Slide show: Best of BT 2007
Slide show: Best of BT More 2007
21 events that rocked the business world
Is corporate world a global village?
-------------------------------------------

Editor's note
From the Editor-in-Chief
Aroon Purie
When it came to choosing a theme for Business Today’s 16th anniversary issue, it seemed appropriate to focus on leadership, specifically young leaders.
------------------------------------------

Special
Destiny Inc: Chance or choice?
Leaders don’t hesitate to take on seemingly impossible goals and then inspire everyone else around them to help achieve goals.

Cruise control - Kumar Mangalam Birla
Private equity pasha - Ashish Dhawan
Master of the fifth estate - Vineet Jain

Mister hospitality - Vikram Oberoi
Sights on the sun - Ratul Puri
The great enabler - Jignesh Shah

God of small credit - Vikram Akula
Clean-up crusader - Arvind Kejriwal
CEO of inconclusive India - Nachiket Mor

Merchant of kitsch - Karan Johar
King of the jingle - Prasoon Joshi
Steel czar - Aditya Mittal

Medicine man - Glenn Saldanha
Solar crusader - Harish Hande
Her mother's daughter - Kiran Desai

Still the boy next door - M. S. Dhoni
The liberator of Kumaoni women - Mukti Dutta
Urban reformer - Ramesh Ramanathan

India's healthcare heiress - Sangita Reddy
Dot-com’s poster boy - Sanjeev Bikhchandani
The badshah of Bollywood - Shah Rukh Khan

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Columns
Leaders for a new India
India faces significant challenges—leadership being the most important.

A leader for all Indians - Sunil Bharti Mittal
A leader for a global India Inc - Mukesh Ambani
A leader for an innovative India — A.P.J. Abdul Kalam

A leader for the women of India — Anu Aga
A leader for a creative India — Pawan Kumar Varma
A leader for an educated India — Azim Premji

A leader for the youth of India - K.M. Birla
A leader for an equitable India — N.R. Narayana Murthy
A leader for a healthy India — Rajat K. Gupta




Source: http://businesstoday.digitaltoday.in. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.

Myiris, Moneycontrol.com Stories

Myiris.com

Weekly wrap up: Market ends the week on a record high
JSW Energy plans USD 1 bn IPO

Jaiprakash Power to raise USD 1 bn via IPO
Dish TV sells 4.9% stake for Rs 2.5 bn
Essar Power to sell 10% stake to PE player

SAIL looks for JVs for coking coal projects in India, abroad
M&M quits from JV with Renault and Nissan
Inflation at 3.45% on high prices of furnace oil, bitumen & naphtha

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Moneycontrol.com

India in the middle of an economic slowdown: Experts
Rel Pwr's 1st project to go onstream in 2009: Anil Ambani
Hyderabad infra cos flush with PE invt
Goyal to sell 5% by Mar on Sebi diktat

2008: New Year, new challenges for Indian advertisers
Rel Pwr has around 28,000 MW projects in hand: Anil Ambani
Subhiksha plans IPO this year


Source: Above blogs/sites. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.

DeadPresident Blog Updates

http://deadpresident.blogspot.com


Weekly Technical Analysis - Jan 7 2008
India Market Outlook 2008
Top Picks - Jan 2008

Sensex hits new highs during the week
Analyst Meet - Future Capital Holdings
Future Capital Holdings Grey Market Premium

Moodys downgrade for Tata Motors
Tulip IT Services
Precious metals fall

India IT Services
Great Offshore, Religare, Sasken, SBI, Tata Motors
Nifty January 2008 futures at discount

Weekly Stock Ideas
Top Stories for week
Revathi Equipment
Blue Star, Ruchi Soya, Simplex Infra, Kalyani Steel, Pyramid Saimira

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Weekly Gainers: Rediff India

http://money.rediff.com/money/jsp/weekly_gainer.jsp



Company Group Prev Close (Rs) Current Price (Rs) % Change
+
HMT Ltd.
A
111.00
148.35
+ 33.65
+
Guj. Industries
A
133.90
177.65
+ 32.67
+
Bombay Dyeing
A
748.65
980.05
+ 30.91
+
Punj. Tractors
A
272.10
351.50
+ 29.18
+
Canara Bank
A
311.20
399.60
+ 28.41
+
EIH Ltd.
A
183.95
235.00
+ 27.75
+
Rashtriya Chem&Fert.
A
112.35
143.20
+ 27.46
+
National Fertili
A
81.20
102.10
+ 25.74
+
Hinduja Ventures
A
702.40
844.10
+ 20.17
+
GTL Ltd.
A
257.75
306.00
+ 18.72
+
Andhra Bank
A
105.50
124.65
+ 18.15
+
Tata Power Co.
A
1,391.30
1,626.80
+ 16.93
+
Asahi India Glass
A
115.70
134.85
+ 16.55
+
Reliance Energy Ltd.
A
2,155.30
2,510.35
+ 16.47
+
Essel Propack Ltd.
A
64.30
74.65
+ 16.10
+
Adani Enterprises Lt
A
1,094.20
1,269.60
+ 16.03
+
Indo Rama Synth.
A
62.50
72.30
+ 15.68
+
Parsvnath Developers
A
457.45
529.10
+ 15.66
+
CESC Ltd.
A
607.45
700.25
+ 15.28
+
Hind. Petrol
A
342.85
394.70
+ 15.12
+
Allahabad Bank
A
117.25
134.90
+ 15.05
+
JaiprakashAssociates
A
422.90
484.85
+ 14.65
+
Apollo Tyres
A
49.90
57.10
+ 14.43
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Company
Group
Prev Close (Rs)
Current Price (Rs)
% Change
+
Nelco Ltd
T
155.40
235.00
+ 51.22
+
Net 4 India
B1
91.55
133.85
+ 46.20
+
Hind. Motor
B1
59.00
86.15
+ 46.02
+
Richa Knits
B1
31.25
45.05
+ 44.16
+
Regency Ceramics
T
21.35
30.70
+ 43.79
+
Atlanta Ltd.
B1
330.15
461.50
+ 39.78
+
Meghmani Organics Lt
B1
36.20
50.55
+ 39.64
+
Jindal Drilling
B1
1,305.00
1,813.80
+ 38.99
+
Allied Digital Servi
B1
741.55
1,027.30
+ 38.53
+
UCO Bank
B1
57.90
80.10
+ 38.34
+
SEL Manufacturing Co
B1
115.70
159.75
+ 38.07
+
Omnitech InfoSolutio
B1
153.65
210.85
+ 37.23
+
Super Spinning
B1
24.00
32.80
+ 36.67
+
Sir Shadilal Ent
B1
153.35
207.00
+ 34.99
+
Kinetic Engg.
T
148.80
200.85
+ 34.98
+
Gammon India
B1
580.00
781.45
+ 34.73
+
Carol Info Services.
T
87.35
115.75
+ 32.51
+
Nandan Exim
B1
7.31
9.67
+ 32.28
+
Torrent Power Ltd.
B1
189.80
250.50
+ 31.98
+
Adlabs Films Ltd.
B1
1,414.05
1,851.55
+ 30.94
+
City Union Bank
B1
364.10
476.75
+ 30.94



Source: http://money.rediff.com/money/jsp/weekly_gainer.jsp. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.