Week Ahead: Nifty may seek support at 4200 : BS

Week Ahead: Nifty may seek support at 4200


Inflation spiking to double-digits led to a market crash. The Nifty ended down 3.75 per cent, closing at 4347.5 points, which is a 10-month low. The Sensex was down 4.07 per cent closing at 14571. The Defty was down 3.83 per cent with the rupee dropping to 42.97.

The rupee fall was precipitated by the continuation of heavy sales from the FIIs. Domestic institutions were also sellers. Breadth signals were terrible with advances heavily outnumbered by declines. Volumes were low. The Junior was down 4.03 per cent while the BSE 500 lost 3.64 per cent.
Outlook: The Nifty is likely to seek support at around 4200 before it attempts a substantial recovery. The upside is likely to be capped by resistance at 4600-4650 level. Settlement considerations may cause extra volatility and lead to a temporary improvement on short-covering. Rationale: On Friday, the market broke key supports. This was a low-volume breakout but the minimum target projections would be about 4200. There is fairly good support at that level. Short-covering could cause some recovery during next week but the market is clearly in an intermediate downtrend (7 weeks and counting) that could get worse.
Counter-view: It would take a very strong trigger in the form of good news to lift the market now. Technically speaking, we would need a high-volume recovery that pushed the market beyond 4650 to break the pattern of an intermediate downtrend. Perhaps the nuclear deal would do it?
Bulls & Bears: Any bullishness next week is liable to arise on the basis of short covering and liable to terminate at around Thursday June 19th levels. Banks for example, have been very hard-hit and there could be candidates here.
IT is another possibility because of the falling rupee and the cushion it offers. Oil exploration is a third segment. But the vast majority of stocks have emulated the index in that they have made clear downside breakouts. Despite settlement considerations, the prudent trader would be advised to stay on the short side of the market or to stay out.
Among the most badly hit sectors are real estate, housing finance stocks, construction companies and automobiles. No surprises here since these are all rate-sensitive and driven by consumer sentiment.
Metals also did badly last week and telecom service providers also saw massive sell offs. The Reliance and ADAG groups both did badly – I suspect this is more due to excessively leveraged positions being sold off.
These are the places shorters should be focussed on. Due to settlement, you may need to carryover positions or to open them in July futures to start with.

MICRO TECHNICALS
Corporation Bank Current price: Rs 284Target price: Rs 300
The stock lost an extraordinary 10 per cent plus on Friday on very low volumes. It has pretty much fulfilled its target on a downside breakout in one freak session. There is a good possibility that it will recover on short covering till about Rs 300. keep a stop at Rs 280 and go long, cover at Rs 295-plus. If the Rs 280 stop is broken, the downside target would be Rs 270.

HOECCurrent price: Rs 127Target price: Rs 135
The stock is range-trading between Rs 125-135 and it hit the bottom end of the range on Friday before making a small recovery. It may be worth a long position on the expectation that it will go back towards the top of the range. Go long with a stop at Rs 125 and cover above Rs 134.

IFCICurrent price: Rs 50Target price: Rs 45
The stock finally made a downside breakout after several weeks of threatening to collapse. It has a target projection in the region of Rs 45 and it could exceed that given its previous history of developing powerful trends. Keep a stop at Rs 52 and go short. Cover at about Rs 46.

Naukri Current price: Rs 999Target price: Rs 1,055
One of very few stocks that held its own on Friday. In fact, it generated strong volumes along with a price-rise. There's a big resistance at the current level and all the way till Rs 1,015. However if it closes above Rs 1,015, it's likely to go till Rs 1,055. Keep a stop at Rs 990 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 1,015.

Reliance Industries Current price: Rs 2,099Target price: Rs 2,025
RIL smashed a key support at Rs 2,150 and dropped on heavy volumes with a high delivery ratio of 44 per cent. There is reasonable support at Rs 2,070 but there is also a target of Rs 2,025. In the circumstances, that target is likely to be fulfilled. RIL may swing between Rs 2,025-2,150 in the next four sessions. Keep a stop at Rs 2,125 and go short, covering at Rs 2,025.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)


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Market to remain under bear hug: Experts

Retail investors lose $50bn on sensex
Market to remain under bear hug: Experts


Dalal Street is likely to face another turbulent period this week amid inflationary concerns, negative global cues and fears of political uncertainty in the country, analysts say.
Market analysts believe that the surge in inflation to a 13-year high of 11.05 per cent could lead to a sharp selling bout at the bourses this week which could propel the benchmark index into a downward frenzy.
"With inflation hitting double-digit mark on Friday, investors will get enough time over the weekend to think and are most definitely going to be on a selling spree this week... be prepared for what I call a 'pre-meditated murder' on Monday," Arun Kejriwal director of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services (KRIS) said.
The benchmark index Sensex which had closed at its lowest level in 2008 at 14,571.29 on Friday, lost over 800 points during the week. Besides, the 50-share Nifty index had settled down 156 points at 4,347.55 on the National Stock Exchange.
Economists believe that it is unlikely that inflation would fall below the 8 per cent level till this year end.
"While 11 per cent headline WPI number were unexpectedly high, the market was well aware that inflation in June is likely to trend upwards and remain high for several weeks.
"A correction in global commodity prices as well as a good monsoon could bring relief over the next quarter, we do not expect inflation to fall too far below 8 per cent until end December," Reliance Capital Chief Economist Atsi Sheth said.
Monetary tightening as well as sporadic fiscal measures are likely to be announced over the coming weeks. It is important to remember that inflation currently is a global concern and that there is no magic bullet to deal with it, Sheth added.
The quarterly monetary policy review of RBI is scheduled on July 29, but analysts said that the Central Bank is expected to take a call much earlier with inflation hitting the roof.
Reserve Bank of India had on June 11, hiked repo rate by 25 basis points to 8 per cent with immediate effect in an effort to contain rising inflation.
However, concerns remain that a further hike in rates would impact bottom line of Indian companies, while high interest rates may delay expansion plans of corporates, which in turn may impact future earnings growth.
Besides, analysts said that the sustained selling by foreign funds would further weigh heavily on the sentiment of the investors in the near term.
"Inflationary concerns and negative cues from the world markets are likely to keep the bourses under pressure this week. However, we expect some support to come in at lower levels by the middle of the week," domestic brokerage firm SMC Global Vice President Rajesh Jain said.
Foreign Institutional Investors have been net sellers in equities to the tune of Rs 7,125.20 crore so far in June, while in the 2008 till now they have made sales worth Rs 22,494.60 crore.
However, domestic mutual funds were net buyers of shares to the tune of Rs 1,919.90 crore in June so far.
Meanwhile, expectations of good first quarter results may trigger a recovery from lower level after the steep fall in share prices, marketmen said.



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Inflation touches double digit at 11.05% : ET

Inflation touches double digit at 11.05%


NEW DELHI: Surging food and fuel prices further pushed up inflation to 11.05 per cent for the week ended June 7, 2008 from 8.75 per cent in the previous week. A day earlier, a poll estimated the annual inflation rate to have jumped to 13-year highs near 10 per cent in early June, powered by a fuel price rise. The wholesale price index is forecast to have risen to 9.82 per cent in the 12 months to June 7, which would be the highest since June 3, 1995, when annual inflation was at 9.89 per cent.

The forecasts from 12 analysts ranged widely from 9.63 per cent to 10.62 per cent, and compared with an annual rise of 8.75 per cent in the previous week. Four economists in the poll estimated the data to come in at above 10 per cent, its first double-digit reading since May 27, 1995. It would be the 17th consecutive week that inflation rate has been above 5.5 per cent, the central bank’s target by the end of the fiscal year in March 2009. India had raised state-set fuel prices by about 10 per cent on June 4, and the RBI last week raised its key lending rate for the first time in more than a year to contain inflation expectations.


Fuel price hike led to double digit inflation: Chidambaram
India losing steam on growth front?
Inflation management goes beyond govt's hands: Industry
Double digit inflation is here to stay: KV Kamath
Inflation woes: Food management may be key

Inflation may not affect growth story
Rising inflation dampening consumer sentiments
Runaway inflation to hit India Inc's growth plans
Inflation takes a hit on leisure, entertainment business

At 11%, inflation hits 13-year high
Inflation needn't pull down stocks always
Lowest Sensex close since Aug '07 as inflation hits 11%


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11% inflation spreads panic; Sensex down 3.3% : ET

11% inflation spreads panic; Sensex down 3.3%

It was one of the worst days for the stock market since beginning of 2008. Higher than expected inflation figures saw investors pressing sell button. ( Watch ) More than 6.5 per cent fall in Reliance Industries followed by 4.5 per cent decline in Bharti Airtel saw the Sensex close at 14590.16, down 498 points or 3.30 per cent. The 30-share index fell around 700 points from high of 15,202.01 to a low of 14,519.27. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 4355.45, down 149 points or 3.30 per cent. The broad index touched a high of 4532 and low of 4333.60.

Tier II and III stocks were not spared in selling spree. BSE Midcap Index ended at 6,051.13, down 2.87 per cent and BSE Small cap Index closed at 7,418.05, down 3.16 per cent. ONGC (up 2.61%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (1.14%) were the only gainers in the 30-share index. Reliance Communications (down 6.65%), Reliance Industries (6.61%), Hindalco Industries (6.37%), Jaiprakash Associates (6.03%), Reliance Infrastructure (4.92%) and Bharti Airtel (4.76%) were under pressure. Market breadth was extremely weak with 2239 declines outnumbering 458 advances on BSE. Inflation rate touched a 13-year high of 11.05 percent for the week ended June 7 from 8.5 per cent in the previous week. Market was expecting it to be around 10.6 per cent. (All figures are provisional)

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Lowest Sensex close since Aug '07 as inflation hits 11%

It was a downhill journey for Indian equities on Friday as inflation shot hit a 13-year high, raising fears over economic growth and sparked panic selling across the board. Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex settled at its lowest close since August 2007 at 14,571.29, down 516.70 points or 3.42 per cent from Thursday’s close. The index slumped to an intra-day low of 14,519.27 from a high of 15,202.01. The wider National Stock Exchange’s Nifty dropped 156.7 points or 3.48 per cent to 4347.55, breaching a crucial resistance level of 4,400. “High inflation and pessimism on the political front weighed on the market. Sensex had never closed below 14,800 since the January fall, which happened today. All the supports are broken.

We are likely to see more downside hereon. Investors should wait and watch as market will look for new bottoms and every rise should be used to exit long positions," said Rakesh Gandhi, technical analyst at Latin Manharlal Securities. The market opened on a buoyant note cheering a fall in crude oil prices and tracking positive global cues. However, the indices had to surrender all early gains after data showed inflation had shot up to 11.05 per cent in the 12 months to June 7, following the rise in state-set fuel prices. This was a big jump from 8.75 per cent a week-earlier. Even as the market plunged, Finance Minister P Chidambaram warned of stronger anti-inflation measures ahead. Though he did not elaborate on the measures being contemplated, expectations are that the Reserve Bank of India may resort to further tightening--a move that could lead to increase in lending rates for auto, housing and consumer loans.

This pressured interest rate sensitive stocks, sending the BSE Bankex, BSE Auto and BSE Realty indices on a downward spiral. Selling continued unabated in second line stocks as well. BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices ended 3.17 per cent and 3.43 per cent lower respectively. The oil & gas space was the biggest loser, after investors dumped shares of Reliance Industries. The index heavyweight fell 6.6 per cent to Rs 2,096.60, its lowest close in nine months. The other frontline counters that took a knock included Reliance Communications (down 6.65%), Hindalco Industries (6.37%), Jaiprakash Associates (6.03%), Reliance Infrastructure (4.92%) and Bharti Airtel (4.76%). ONGC (up 1.56%) was the lone gainer in the 30-share index. Market breadth was extremely weak with 2,247 declines and 450 advances on BSE. Meanwhile, stocks in Europe declined led by commodity producers as investors speculated the economic slowdown would curb demand for metals. The FTSE was down 1.03 per cent, DAX 30 lost 1.4 per cent and CAC 40 shed 1.29 per cent. In the Asia Pacific region, however, it was a mixed picture. The Nikkei ended 1.33 per cent lower, Hang Seng fell 0.23 per cent while Straits Times added 0.31 per cent and CSI 300 Index rose 2.61 per cent.

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Sensex tumbles to year's low
Dalal Street panics; indices fall
The pain may be far from over. The double-digit inflation data which rattled investors, could just be the trigger to send the market tumbling even further. And this horror movie could have many scenes left. The full force of oil prices, farm loan waiver, fertiliser bill and pay commission is yet to be felt. On Friday, 11% inflation unnerved the stock market, and pushed key indices like the Sensex and Nifty to their lows of 2008. Analysts feel that with global crude oil and commodity prices ruling high and no major correction expected in the near future, inflation continues to cast shadows on the market. “Today, the policy options before the government are limited. And, for the market, there may be more pain left. There is still no valuation comfort for Sensex stocks,” said Brics Securities head of equities Anand Tandon. If a phase of high inflation and high interest rate continues, a slowdown in GDP would no longer remain an academic debate, according to analysts. Jolted by the shock news on inflation, Sensex tumbled 517 points, or 3.4%, to close at 14,571 points, while the broad-based Nifty slipped 157 points, or 3.5%, to end at 4,348 points. With this, the two indices have touched their 10-month lows.

Investor wealth eroded by Rs 1.6 lakh crore on Friday, bringing total wealth erosion since January to Rs 26.6 lakh crore. Since January, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold heavily, pulling out a total of Rs 24,000 crore. At 5%, BSE’s oil and gas index was the worst-hit sectoral index, followed by real estate and metal indices, which fell 4.5% and 4% respectively. Rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and banking also took a beating on fears of possible monetary tightening by RBI. The inflation data spooked many analysts who were expecting a more modest 10%.

It is felt that RBI may go for another hike in interest rates and cash reserve ratio to bring down inflation. “Government finances have gone haywire because of soaring crude oil prices, forcing the Centre to hike fuel prices. The government appears concerned about the rising inflation and may take some measures to check it. Interest rates may go up, which in turn, will put pressure on corporate earnings,” said KR Choksey Shares and Securities chairman Kisan Choksey. Some brokers feel that the market is worried about a possible earnings slowdown and next year’s general elections. One has to see how the UPA government tackles various sensitive issues, particularly inflation, which will be key to its electoral performance, said a broker.
Call writing at 4500 caps upside, realty & banking drag


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Ranbaxy, Pfizer sign truce over Lipitor, Reliance Big to light up screen with Spielberg

Ranbaxy, Pfizer sign truce over

Exactly a week after the promoters of Ranbaxy Laboratories sold their shareholding to Japanese drug maker Daiichi Sankyo, the Indian drug maker and US giant Pfizer announced that they have reached an out-of-court settlement on their litigation over the world’s largest selling drug, Lipitor (Atorvastatin). According to the settlement, Ranbaxy will launch its generic version of Lipitor, the $12.7-billion cholesterol-lowering medicine, and combination drug Caduet in November 30, 2011 in the US with exclusive marketing rights for 180 days, along with the innovator company. Industry estimates peg Ranbaxy’s revenue upside from the settlement for Lipitor at $1.5 billion over a four-year period up to May 2012. Ranbaxy (subject to litigation) was on course to launch its generic version of Lipitor in the US in March, 2010, 15 months ahead of its patent expiry in June, 2011.

The settlement pushes back the launch date by 20 months, even though it eliminates all uncertainty regarding the launch date. In addition, Ranbaxy will also not receive any upfront payment from the out-of-court settlement. Says Prabhudas Lilladher’s pharma analyst Ranjit Kapadia: “The settlement brings certainty to Ranbaxy’s launch and will cut down litigation cost for Ranbaxy from tomorrow itself. However, the drug’s launch has been pushed back by 20 months, which means that Pfizer will get additional sales of around $20 billion during the extended period.”
Ranbaxy sell-off may price open more deals
Market was all ready for Ranbaxy-Daiichi deal
What does Daiichi bring for Ranbaxy investors?
Ranbaxy needed to pop growth pill

Ranbaxy has described the deal as a win-win situation. “This is the largest and the most comprehensive out-of-court settlement ever in the pharma industry covering a total revenue of over $13 billion. The revenues will start kicking in from this year as we will be launching generic version of Lipitor in Canada this calendar year,” Ranbaxy Laboratories CEO and MD Malvinder Singh told ET. A senior Pfizer executive said the agreement clearly reaffirms the value and importance of intellectual property.

The settlement was announced after Indian stock exchanges closed on Wednesday. Ranbaxy shares moved up 2.9% to Rs 598 during the day. According to industry estimates, Ranbaxy will get a revenue upside of around $1.5 billion from the Lipitor generic over a four-year period up to May 2012. Bulk of this revenue will be backloaded and is expected to accrue when Ranbaxy launches the drug in the US market in November, 2011. Lipitor generates annual sales of $8 billion in the US alone. In Canada, the drug rakes in about a $1 billion in sales every year. Caduet, a combination drug of Lipitor and hypertension drug Norvasc, has annual global sales of $400 million. In addition to the US and Canada, the Indian drug maker will also have the licence to sell Atorvastatin in six more countries - Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Italy and Australia - on different dates. Ranbaxy can launch its Atorvastatin 2-4 months ahead of patent expiry in these countries. Ranbaxy and Pfizer have also resolved their disputes regarding Atorvastatin in Malaysia, Brunei, Peru and Vietnam. Continued...Next >>

Wave of consolidation to hit Indian pharma sector: Malvinder Singh
Ranbaxy sell-off
Indian generic companies may tread Ranbaxy path
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Reliance Big to light up screen with Spielberg19 Jun, 2008, 0620 hrs IST, ET Bureau

its recent high-profile entry into Hollywood, Reliance Big Entertainment (RBEL), the entertainment arm of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG), is now close to inking a joint venture with Hollywood director Steven Spielberg. It is learnt that ADAG will commit $500 million in the new venture, which will fund all of Mr Spielberg's movies. The new company, to be formed between the two parties, will produce about six films a year. The American film director, producer and screenwriter is a three-time Academy Award winner and is the highest-grossing filmmaker of all time. In a career spannig almost four decades, Mr Spielberg made classics such as Jaws, E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial and Jurassic Park, which became the highest-grossing films of their time. During his early years as a director, his sci-fi and adventure films were often seen as the archetype of modern Hollywood blockbuster filmmaking.

However, a Reliance ADAG spokesperson offered "no comments" when questioned about the deal. This will also mean that Mr Spielberg, who sold his company DreamWorks to Viacom in 2006, will part ways with Viacom, with the funding that they receive from ADAG. The move cements Reliance Big Entertainment's plan to become one of the largest players in the entertainment business in the world. Last month, Reliance ADAG announced a slew of projects at the Cannes film festival, roping in Hollywood stars, including Tom Hanks, Brad Pitt, Jim Carrey and George Clooney, with an estimated investment of about $1 billion.

Reliance ADAG is understood to be financing Mr Spielberg to ensure that DreamWorks is sufficiently funded so that its departure from Viacom's Paramount Pictures is feasible. Recently, RBEL, which runs cinemas in India through Adlabs, entered the US market under the brand name 'Big'. The company has acquired more than 200 theatres across 28 locations in North America, including New York, New Jersey, Atlanta, Detroit, Chicago, San Jose, Los Angeles, Washington DC and Seattle. The group has also bought a US-based theatre management company to operate the US chain and has set up a distribution company to license rights. RBEL is focused on both international and domestic projects, and its vision is to become one of the major entertainment companies world-wide. The entry into mainstream Hollywood projects is in tandem with this vision. For Hollywood actors and producers, partnering an Indian entertainment company would ensure South Asian audiences.

Besides, they would get a strong producer and distributor, capable to explore new markets and concepts. In February, when George Soros invested $100 million in RBEL, the internet, media and entertainment arm of ADAG, for a 3% stake, valuing the company at $3 billion, the move took everyone by surprise. The primary reason was that most of the businesses held under RBEL were either at the planning stage or characterised by earnings potential rather than actual earnings. However, going by the recent spate of activities and the number of acquisitions that RBEL has undertaken, the plans seem to be gaining momentum. Three months after the last investment, RBEL has been in talks with private equity biggies like Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company (KKR), billionaire investor Carl Icahn, Japan's Softbank and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority for selling a 10% stake for a valuation of $5 billion.



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ET Stories

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/

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For more, Visit@http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/headlines.cms

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VC, PE updates and Deadpresident Blog updates

http://www.deadpresident.blogspot.com

India's outsourcing rev growth softening: TCS
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The Singhs’ Rs 10,000 Crore Plan: Banking & Private Equity
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GE Money Stake Sale Plans Come A Cropper Over Valuations
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Motilal Oswal VC Invests Rs 40 Cr In Consumer Durable Maker Dixon Technologies
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TCI to sell 10% stake to fund growth plans
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ING looking to buy out private equity firm in India
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Quarterly Results

Corporate Results

Aurobindo Pharma net profit declines 2.60% in the March 2008 quarter
Rajesh Exports net profit rises 46.79% in the March 2008 quarter
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Dhanuka Agritech net profit rises 61.14% in the year ended March 2008
Sales rise 23.84% to Rs 248.21 crore
KEI Industries net profit declines 42.91% in the March 2008 quarter
Sales rise 24.33% to Rs 258.47 crore
Finolex Industries net profit declines 93.07% in the March 2008 quarter
Sales rise 39.79% to Rs 428.60 crore
Arrow Webtex net profit declines 85.14% in the March 2008 quarterSales rise 7.40% to Rs 22.34 crore
G P Electronics reports net profit of Rs 1.27 crore in the March 2008 quarterSales rise 48.23% to Rs 2.09 crore
Indian Extraction net profit rises 1428.57% in the March 2008 quarter
Volant Textile Mills reports net profit of Rs 24.17 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Hotel Leela Venture net profit declines 34.24% in the March 2008 quarter
Solar Explosives net profit rises 16.62% in the March 2008 quarter

Greenply Industries net profit rises 29.21% in the March 2008 quarter
Mafatlal Industries reports net profit of Rs 29.30 crore in the year ended March 2008GMR Ferro Alloys & Industries reports net profit of Rs 0.64 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Savant Infocomm reports net loss of Rs 0.02 crore in the March 2008 quarter

Total Exports reports net loss of Rs 0.02 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Themis Medicare net profit rises 22.22% in the March 2008 quarter
Bimetal Bearings net profit rises 30.92% in the March 2008 quarter
International Data Management reports net loss of Rs 0.01 crore in the March 2008
quarter

Rajapalayam Mills net profit declines 70.00% in the March 2008 quarter
Makers Laboratories reports net profit of Rs 0.26 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Dish TV India reports net loss of Rs 115.06 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Marmagoa Steel net profit rises 422.68% in the year ended March 2008

Indraprastha Gas net profit rises 20.24% in the March 2008 quarter
Mafatlal Finance Company reports net loss of Rs 9.04 crore in the March 2008 quarter
P I Industries net profit rises 19.08% in the March 2008 quarter
Sical Logistics net profit rises 26.40% in the March 2008 quarter


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