Economic lessons from the East: Sify Special

Economic lessons from the East
A Dragon, four tigers and an elephant

East Asia is one of the most dynamic, dazzling and diverse region of the whole world. It has a population of about 2.2 billion corresponding to one third of the global population. In this region, we have 'dragon' and 'tiger countries' playing very important roles on world political stage and giving new dimension to the global economy.

China is known as a country of dragon while Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore are known as "Four East Asian tigers". The most influential countries who play a pivotal role on the world economic scenario are Japan, China, South Korea and Singapore.

The growth this year in all the developing East Asian economy except Japan is going to be simply unprecedented in the last two decades. East Asia has got a huge relief after the financial crisis of 1997, which shivered the stock market nerves of Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. Even the World Bank has recently revised its forecast for the growth of East Asian economy, except Japan, in 2007-08 to be 8.4%, up from 7.3% earlier predicted in April last year.

By the same author: China’s first Padma Bhushan 'West must stop fanning Tibet fire'

The rising oil prices and inflation may slow down the growth of the economy of these East Asian countries; however it is predicted that these countries would perform much better than their western or South Asian counterparts..........
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Source: Sify.com

Private oilcos may have to shell out windfall tax : ET

Private oilcos may have to shell out windfall tax

Private oilcos like Reliance Industries (RIL), Essar and Cairn may have to forgo some of their profits to share the huge subsidy burden in the oil sector. A proposal on these lines, which was first mooted by the Left parties, is now being considered “seriously” by the ruling party leadership, following a similar demand by the Congress’ latest political ally, the Samajwadi Party.

A windfall tax is normally levied on oil exploration and production companies who reap huge profits when global crude prices increase. Refinery companies, on the other hand, face pressure on their margins as costs go up. Sources in the know confirmed that the SP leadership, which has openly criticised the petroleum ministry’s stand on fuel prices, has demanded that private oil companies whose profits have surged thanks to high oil prices, need to share the subsidy burden.

A decision to this effect is expected towards the end of this month. The changing political landscape may revive the government’s proposal to widen the oil subsidy sharing mechanism, currently confined to PSU oil companies and the exchequer. It is understood from official sources that the proposal, mooted earlier from within the government, was summarily turned down by petroleum minister Murli Deora before.

According to official sources, it was proposed that the Reliance refinery should be asked to offer discount for at least two products, cooking gas (LPG) and kerosene, meant for the public distribution. While announcing the marginal fuel price hike on June 4, Mr Deora, however, said that he was against any such move to involve private companies, including Reliance, in sharing the oil price burden.

On June 4, at the prevailing crude prices ($129/barrel), the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies (OMCs) on the sale of petrol, diesel, PDS kerosene and domestic LPG was estimated at around Rs 2,45,305 crore for 2008-09.

Sources close to the current political developments said that SP has demanded that private companies like RIL are minting money due to rising global oil prices and they can’t be protected at the cost of common man and public sector companies. “The demand is in the public interest,” a source close to the SP leadership said. Many members of the Parliament (MPs) have been demanding that private refiners as well as exploration & production (E&P) companies like Cairn, Niko and GSPC should also contribute towards sharing of OMCs’ under-recoveries.

While E&P companies could offer discounted crude like ONGC (which would reduce costs for refineries and thus the loss on the selling price), refineries could sell the products at subsidised prices to public sector oilcos. As of now, public sector oil companies buy a marginal quantity of subsidised fuels like cooking gas and kerosene from the private refineries at import parity prices.

Currently, the under-recoveries are split by public sector E&P companies like ONGC, OIL and Gail through discounts, public sector OMCs like IOC, BPCL and HPCL through direct subsidised retail, and the government through oil bonds. On June 4, the government increased prices of three sensitive fuel products marginally — petrol by Rs 5/litre, diesel by Rs 3/litre and cooking gas by Rs 50 per cylinder.

The government didn’t increase the price of kerosene, a politically sensitive product considered to be used by the poor. Even as there has been a marginal price increase, public sector OMCs are losing Rs 14.92/litre on petrol, Rs 24.90/ litre on diesel, Rs 38/litre on kerosene and Rs 338.53 on every LPG cylinder.

IOC, which has over 50% market share in fuel retailers among PSUs, is losing Rs 383 crore per day on fuel sales. The losses are expected to go up significantly as the crude oil prices, currently hovering at around $145/barrel, are likely to touch $150/barrel mark soon.

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Tanti Group to invest with Arcapita Bank
7 Jul, 2008
Tanti Group of Companies said that it has entered into an agreement with Bahrain's Arcapita Bank to invest USD 2 bn for creating a portfolio of 1,650 MW wind energy in China.

Oil falls below $141 as dollar gains strength
Sensex gives up gains as concerns outweigh global cues
Citi may sell stake in HDFC: Report
India to approach IAEA very soon: PM



Source: ET

RIL in talks for Chevron's Kenya, Uganda biz : ET

RIL in talks for Chevron's Kenya, Uganda biz

Reliance Industries (RIL) is learnt to be in talks to acquire some downstream assets of US major Chevron in the African continent. Chevron’s assets in Africa include over 1,500 fuel stations, refining assets, terminals and depots in countries like South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Reunion and Uganda. Of these, Chevron may exit from East African markets like Kenya and Uganda. Confirming the move, a source close to the development said, “Chevron’s Kenya and Uganda operations are on the block.”

The Chevron spokesperson could not be reached for her comments immediately. An e-mail sent to Chevron remained unanswered. A RIL spokesperson declined to comment on this issue. The Kenyan government is learnt to have offered three billion Kenyan shillings to buy Chevron’s retail marketing operations in Kenya. With Chevron’s Kenyan and Ugandan operations up for sale as a combined unit, the government’s bid for the local business is at a disadvantage against international and national oil companies that are said to be pursuing the deal to grow their market shares in the region.

Kenyan energy permanent secretary, Patrick Nyoike, who was in Mumbai last week said, “We are facing stiff competition from other top private sector contenders, who are eyeing both the operations. We have asked them (Chevron) to unbundle the two operations to enable us to bid for the Kenyan operation in which we are interested. From India, Reliance and Essar are in talks with Chevron for buying out there African operations.” When asked for comments, an Essar spokesperson said, “As a group, we keep looking at growth opportunities in the sectors that we are in. However, it is not our policy to comment on any specific proposal.”

Interestingly, Caltex’s Uganda country chairman, John Matovu, last month said “Caltex is not up for sale. We have made no decisions regarding any new divestitures. Chevron Corporation, the parent company of Caltex, constantly evaluates its operations to determine whether it needs to make changes to improve returns on capital and generate the strongest possible cash flow. Evaluations were going on to determine options for the company,” an African website quoted Mr Matovu as saying. An African business daily had earlier quoted Chevron’s Kenya CEO, Raymond Ndieffe, as having said that “Chevron continually evaluates our business operations to determine whether we need to make changes.

As a part of this strategy, evaluations are ongoing to determine what options are available to us”. RIL is aggressively scouting the globe for oil terminals to bring itself closer to the market for crude and refined end-products. After being forced to close over 1,400 retail outlets in India, the company is looking overseas to buy downstream retail assets. A RIL source said, “Africa is an exciting market for us. We are looking at various options.” RIL’s president for international business, Atul Chandra, had earlier told ET, “The company is looking at acquisitions in various markets, including Africa.”

RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani, in his AGM speech last month, hinted at RIL’s mode of growth changing from organic to acquisitions. “The span of growth is rapidly extending from India to global and in the process, Reliance is poised for a historic leap from India’s number one company to one of the world’s leading energy giants.” An analyst working with an international research firm, said, “It makes sense for Reliance to buy downstream assets in Africa primarily because its new refinery is likely to commence soon. Since it has closed down its India retail operations, it may export a part of its refinery products to African markets. Essar will also be interested, given its negotiations with the Kenyan government to buy majority stake in the Mombassa refinery.”

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Rally ahead, it's a good time to take long positions
Analysts' picks: Firstsource, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, Apollo Hospital, Jagran Prakashan
Motilal Oswal assigns 'buy' to Tata Steel

Era Infra board approves 5-for-1 stock split

Source: ET

Markets near intermediate bottom level: ET

Markets near intermediate bottom level

The market finished lower for a seventh successive week, with the Sensex ending 2.92% or 348 points lower, and Nifty losing 2.92% and CNX Midcap falling 4.98%. However, the statistic hides two rallies during the week that added up to 1,063 Sensex points.

BHEL was the biggest winner among Sensex stocks with an 8.7% gain. Other winners with gains between 7.5% and 2.4% included Jaiprakash Associates, ONGC, Satyam, L&T, Ranbaxy, Infosys and NTPC. ACC was the biggest loser with a 17.5% loss. Other losers were Maruti Suzuki, Grasim, Reliance Energy, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Ambuja Cements and ICICI Bank with losses between 14.7% and 8%. Triveni Engineering was the biggest winner among non-Sensex stocks with a 23.6% gain. Other non-Sensex winners with gains between 14.3% and 5.9% were India Infoline, Orchid Chem, i-flex solutions, Renuka Sugars, Praj Inds and Gokul Refoils. Recently listed Niraj Cement was the biggest loser among non-Sensex stocks with a 58% loss. Other losers were MVL, Pyramid Saimira, Gwalior Chemicals, JSW Steel, Sejal Architectural Glass, Adlabs Films, MRPL, Rajesh Exports and Gujarat NRE Coke with losses between 27.5% and 16.9%.

INTERMEDIATE TREND: The intermediate downtrend that began on May 5, when the Sensex reversed downward after peaking at 17736, persists. But the two bouts of strong buying on Wednesday and Friday suggest an intermediate bottom is a possibility around current levels. The levels above which the downtrend will end remain 14450 for Sensex, 4325 for Nifty, and 5698 for CNX Midcap. Global indices are also in intermediate downtrends. The Dow has to cross 12400 to begin an intermediate uptrend.

LONG-TERM TREND: The indices made fresh bear market lows last week, and remain in major downtrends. This means we are still in a bear market. The market’s long-term trend will turn up if the Sensex closes above its last intermediate top of 17736, Nifty above 5300, and CNX Midcap above 7192. Global indices are also in major downtrends, but most have remained above their last intermediate bottoms. Indian and Chinese indices breached their last lows a few weeks ago, and the Dow did so more recently. Some European indices followed suit last week. The odds can shift in favour of a global bull market if the current intermediate downtrends end in higher intermediate bottoms for most indices. The Dow will enter a bull market by closing above its last intermediate top at 13200.

TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES : Long-term investors should wait for this intermediate downtrend to end. But some exposure can be taken as the downside risk is reduced with the Sensex having fallen almost 40% from its January high. A 25% exposure with a pessimistic 20% downside risk presents only a 5% portfolio risk. Banks, realty, construction and capital goods are still in long-term downtrends, and should be avoided. Software and pharma scrips and are not falling as heavily, and are better suited for long-term investing. The intermediate downtrend is now nine weeks old, and day-trading may work better then swing trading, as abrupt changes are occurring frequently.

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: All major international markets are in intermediate downtrends, and also lost further ground last week. But the March lows have not been violated yet for most markets. The Sensex has lost 12% in the 12 months that ended on Thursday, taking it to 12th spot among 40 well-known global indices. Egypt continues to head the list with a 18.7% gain. Russia and Brazil are next. The Dow has lost 16.9% and Nasdaq 15.1% over the same interval. (The author is an independent technical analyst)
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Investors Guide
India growth story hits the slow track
Have we hit a bottom?
Silver outperforms gold
Buyers lap up paintings worth $1.1 bn
Retail industry has enough headroom to grow

Plethico Pharma is an attractive investment pick
Firstsource Solutions overweight; buy RCom
Petronet LNG hopes to ride boom in LNG capacity
Sejal Architectural likely to offer decent upside potential


Source: The Economic Times

Blog Updates from Deadpresident Blog

Weekly Technicals - July 6 2008

The markets ended with losses for the seventh week in a row as they continued to be haunted by global market cues, record crude oil prices, rising inflation and political worries.The Sensex crashed to a low of 12,822 during the week - down almost 1,000 points from its previous close. However, some bargain hunting in beaten-down financial and realty stocks helped the index cut losses towards the end of the week.

The index finally ended with a loss of 348 points at 13,454. It has shed a whopping 22.8 per cent (3,981 points) in the last seven weeks.Among the index stocks, ACC, Maruti, Grasim and Reliance Infrastructure dropped 13-17 per cent last week. Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Ambuja Cements, ICICI Bank, Reliance Communications, ITC and Mahindra & Mahindra shed 7-12 per cent each.On the other hand, BHEL surged nearly 9 per cent. Jaiprakash Associates, ONGC, Satyam and L&T gained 5-7 per cent each.

Political concerns, inflation worries and possible action by the RBI would continue to affect the markets in the short term. The market sentiment will also be driven by the earnings season.Technically, the Sensex may drift towards its yearly support of 12,100.

However, if the index manages to sustain above the 12,750-12,800 range in the short-term, there may be a pull-back rally upto 13,900 and 15,200. The index is likely to find support around 13,050-12,930-12,800 and resistance at 13,855-13,980-14,100.The Nifty moved in a range of 315 points during the week. From a high of 4,163, the index dropped to a low of 3,848 and finally settled with a loss of 121 points at 4,016. The index tumbled over 22 per cent (1,142 points) in the last seven weeks. The Nifty shall seek support in the broad range of 3,750-3,850, below which it is likely to fall to 3,500. (via Business Standard)

India forex reservces fall
Worst economic outlook in a decade awaits G8
World News

India Strategy - July 4 2008
Indian cell services market to top US$37bn by 2012...
Long Term Picks - July 4 2008


Source: Deadpresident.blogspot.com

Venture Capital , Pvt Equity Updates

VCcircle.com

Mobile Community Website SMSGupShup Gets $10 Million From Helion & Charles River
ChrysCapital Picks Up 7% In Amtek Auto From Secondary Market
Cafe Coffee Day Holdings To Get $50M From JPMorgan: Report
Bennet, Coleman’s 2% Stake Buy In SMC Group Values The Broker At $875 Million
IFC To Invest Rs 64 Crore In Pharma Contract Manufacturer Hikal

Online Tax Filer Taxshax Gets BCCL Support
“Entrepreneurs Are The Freedom Fighters Of Tomorrow”
Guest Column: Can RIL Enforce First Right Of Refusal On RCOM-MTN Deal?
There Could Be Some Truth In Bharti-Zain Story: Experts
RCOM-MTN Moving Ahead To A New Holding Structure

IDFC Plans Holding Co; To Raise Upto $750M; Increase ESOPS
Bumi Geo Engineering Raises $9.4 Million From Dubai’s Alcazar
Anil Singhvi Chucks Finance For A Cement Role In R-ADAG
Reliance Money Plans Saudi Arabia Foray Through JV
PE-Backed SemanticSpace Makes A $40M Acquisition In The US

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IndiaPE.com

IFC to acquire shares of Modern Dairies
CUMI agrees to acquire 51% stake in FZL, SA
ICICI Venture sells JV stake to Tishman
Mallya eyes 26% stake in SpiceJet
IFC to invest $15 mn in Mumbai pharma firm

Gopinath to dilute 26% stake in Deccan Cargo
BCCL picks up stake in SMC Group
NALCO Likely To Acquire 51% Stake In Tajikistan's Talco
Clearwater invests $50 mn in power equipment park
Kingfisher, SpiceJet May Swap Shares 1:3

PE investments take a beating
UK’s Eredene Cap picks up 50% stake in Apeejay Infra-Logistics
PE firms wooing OOH media players
RCom, MTN deal likely on July 6?
RCOM plans to raise $5 bn for MTN deal


Source: VCcircle, INdiaPe.com

N-deal necessary for nation: Kakodkar

N-deal necessary for nation: Kakodkar

Making a strong pitch again for operationalising the Indo-US nuclear deal, Atomic Energy Commission Chief Anil Kakodkar today said 'history will not forgive us' if it is not clinched.

Kakodkar's strong statement came on a day when Left parties said they would vote against the UPA government in Parliament in case of a confidence motion if it took the next step to operationalise the deal.

"Here is a chance ... without compromising on our principles, we can bridge energy security for the future," Kakodkar said in a public lecture on 'Evolving Indian nuclear programme: Rationale and perspectives', organised by the Indian Academy of Sciences.

Without mentioning the deal but giving enough indications that he exactly meant that, he said, "If we don't do now, history will not forgive us". He termed it (the deal) one of the most promising and viable way of bridging energy security for the future.Later, responding to reporters` queries on time-line for approaching the IAEA for a safeguards agreement and if the deal can be wrapped up year-end, Kakodkar said, "Sooner the better.

But everything is not in my hands, now? But things are not in my hands".Earlier, he declined to comment on the raging political debate over the nuclear deal when an audience member posed a question. "That's part of politics; I don't get into politics.
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'History won't forgive if N-deal is not inked'
Seek vote of confidence: BJP
Fuel, metal prices to blame: FinMin
Weekly Review: Sensex at 15-mth low
Jim Rogers bets big on oil price surge
How to tackle interest rate hikes


Source: UTVi.com, Rediff.com

Stock, MF analysis from BusinessLine

Prime Focus: Buy
With a strong presence in the niche area of post-production services for films, a unique cross-border business model and a good pipeline of film projects, Prime Focus is a preferred pick within the media sector. A substantial correction in ... More

TCS: Buy..More

Marico Industries: Buy...More

Crompton Greaves: Buy....More

Dishman Pharma: Buy...More

NEW FUND OFFER
Fund Update
Bharti AXA Investment Managers has launched a ‘Liquid’ Fund. The minimum investment is Rs 5,000 for the retail plan and Rs 1 crore for the institution plan. The NFO closes on July 14.Bharti AXA ... More


MUTUAL FUNDS
IDFC Imperial Equity: Hold...More

ICICI Pru Dynamic: Invest
Investments can be considered in ICICI Pru Dynamic Fund given the fund’s performance over the three and five-year period. Over the same time-frame, the fund has generated an annualised return of 29 per cent and 37 per cent, ... More

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Query Corner
I hold shares of Reliance Capital. Please let me know the future prospects of this stock. Himanshu ShahReliance Capital (Rs 993): In our previous review of Reliance Capital in March, ... More

Sensex long-term outlook review
We had expected the four-year long bull-phase to terminate in the first quarter of 2008 in our long-term outlook at the beginning of this year. Our outermost target for the Sensex for 2008 was at 13700. Now that this level has been ... More

Index Outlook
It was week of high drama on the Indian bourses. The markets initially appeared to be plunging in to a bottomless pit. But the 700-points recovery on Wednesday brought the spring back to the step of the drooping bulls only to see their hopes ... More

DERIVATIVES MARKETS
Nifty future may move in 3800-4300 range..More

LIFE INSURANCE
Combining gainfully
SIP + Insurance products More



Source: www.Businessline.in. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information .

Kingfisher buying SpiceJet??? : UTVi.com

Kingfisher buying SpiceJet?

Mumbai: Vijay Mallya's Kingfisher Airlines is close to acquiring a controlling stake in another low-cost carrier SpiceJet.The deal will value SpiceJet around $300 million dollars. It is likely to be a cash-and- share swap deal.

Mallya is likely to acquire 26% stake in SpiceJet, and make an open offer for an additional 20% stake. He is also likely to retain Spice as the low-cost carrier of Kingfisher Airlines.If the deal goes through, Mallya, through Kingfisher Airlines, Deccan and Spice, will control 40% marketshare beating Jet (along with Sahara), which has a marketshare of 33%.

It will also give Mallya the position to dominate fares in the marketplace. Currently, because of the low cost airline fares, Kingfisher and Jet are forced to sell tickets below cost.SpiceJet is a fairly well run, lean operation with the smallest loss in the industry.

Experts say it will give Kingfisher the right product in the low cost space. And, of course, access to trained manpower.What may not work too well for the two airlines is the fact that they operate different fleets. Spice flies Boeing while Kingfisher is an Airbus customer. So, there are no clear synergies in operations. Analysts say if the two airlines continue to function separately, it will not pose a big challenge for Mallya.

If the deal does fructify, it could change the aviation landscape in the country and make the airline industry more viable



Source: www. UTVi.com . We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information .