21 July 2008

As good as it gets: Rel Petroluem

As good as it gets: Rel Petro

Despite a decline in investors’ confidence in the stock market and the turmoil in global financial markets over the past six months, there remain a few events which are eagerly awaited by all. One such event is the commissioning of Reliance Petroleum (RPL)’s refinery in Jamnagar special economic zone (SEZ) — which is being tracked not just by its 2 million shareholders and stock market experts, but by global energy analysts as well.

The project is expected to serve as an example for its speed of execution, low capital cost and high complexity. However, the strength in global gross refining margins (GRMs) is unlikely to persist going forward, due to rising refinery capacity across the world. Though the positives associated with RPL’s refinery are obvious, we believe its current valuations have limited upside left.

ADVANTAGES GALORE Low Capital Cost:
RPL is being set up at a capital cost of only Rs 27,000 crore, i.e. around $6.5 billion, but a similar-sized refinery will currently require almost twice this amount. This is due to the fact that over the past three years, a number of refinery projects have been launched across the world, resulting in higher costs of equipment and engineering services.

Fast Project Execution:
The project was originally scheduled to be completed in 36 months by September ’08, with commercial production due to start in December ’08. However, the company intends to prepone the deadlines. It has already completed more than 90% of the work and the pre-commissioning activities in the main process units are progressing rapidly. In fact, Mukesh Ambani assured shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting (AGM) last month that “the refinery is expected to be completed ahead of schedule.”

Ability To Earn Higher GRMs:
RPL’s refinery will have the ability to handle very heavy and high sulphur crude to produce the best quality products. Similarly, its product slate will be better, thanks to its ability to totally eliminate lowvalue products such as fuel oil. Considering that the heavy-light differential in crude prices has reached $20 a barrel, RPL will be able to earn higher GRMs compared to its peers.

Tax Sops:
The SEZ location and focus on exports will exempt RPL’s profits from income tax (IT) fully for the first five years. The I-T exemption will be 50% for the next five years.

LIMITED UPSIDE
After enjoying a high tide in the past few months, Asian GRMs are now weakening. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly report for June ’08 elaborated on this fact. “While diesel remains highly profitable, gasoline cracks remain subdued and fuel oil cracks have reached record lows.” Even production of naphtha is generating losses. When overall GRMs turn weak, it is feared that commissioning of RPL’s refinery will lead to a glut situation, thereby further bringing down GRMs. The supply from RPL’s new refinery will represent almost 50% of the estimated incremental global oil demand in ’09. Nearly 2 million bpd of global refining capacity (including RPL) is expected to commence in ’09, which will weigh heavily on the GRMs. RPL operates in a business where there is little scope for volume-led growth compensating for a fall in margins. Hence, if GRMs turn weak from the current levels, the company’s bottomline may shrink.

VALUATIONS
We estimate the refinery will earn a premium of around $9 per barrel over Singapore benchmark complex refining margins, which are expected to remain at around $8 per barrel during FY10. Considering interest and depreciation charges, the company’s full-year net profit at 85% capacity level will stand at Rs 6,365 crore. This translates into a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 10.9 on the current market price of Rs 154. Since petroleum refining is a capital-intensive cyclical business, it has traditionally commanded a single-digit P/E globally. Another way of looking at valuations , is the replacement cost of the refinery. RPL’s current market capitalisation of Rs 69,300 crore is around 38% higher than the estimated cost of setting up a similar refinery. Similarly, at current m-cap , RPL’s enterprise value (EV) is 8.5 times its estimated EBIDTA for FY10, which is slightly on the higher side compared to the global average. Hence, we believe that the upside in RPL’s scrip is limited in the short run.

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Other INVESTOR GUIDE articles from ET

Perfect picks even in the worst of times
Jubilant Organosys’ good bet for long-term investors

Book your copy: Vishal Information Technologies’ IPO
Long-term investors can hold, others can exit KSK Energy stock

Hospitality sector on the rise
Ratnamani Metals & Tubes attractive bet for investors

The mad world of gyrating equity market
Glimmer of hope in volatile markets

Source: ET

Market glued to Tuesday's trust vote

Market glued to Tuesday's trust vote
D-St Outlook


The outcome of the crucial trust vote on Tuesday, which will not only decide the fate of the UPA government, but also Indo-US nuclear deal, will set the tone for equities this week. If the government fails the vote, it is expected to trigger the next major bout of selling, as investors are generally uncomfortable with unstable regimes. Going by the euphoria in the market in the last couple of sessions, also aided by declining global crude prices, it appears that investors expect the Congress-led UPA government to win the trust vote. Sentiment has been boosted by expectations that surviving the trust vote will prompt the UPA government to speed-up the languishing economic reforms process.

But, not everyone thinks the government’s survival in the trust vote would change India’s real economic conditions “Overall, it may well be that the Congress-led government survives the vote of confidence and limps on until 2009. However, there will be plenty of demand for populist action as each party, in what is likely to be a very unwieldy coalition, attempts to quickly make its mark before the general election,” said HSBC’s economists and strategists in a recent note.

Even if the market rallies, driven by the government’s survival in the trust vote, analysts believe upsides will be short-lived, as concerns such as inflation along with slowing economic and corporate profit growth remain. So far, for the first quarter, companies’ earnings have not sprung any positive surprises, with sales growth remaining stable, while profit growth getting squeezed.

“History suggests that the government’s ability to control growth and inflation is fairly limited and we suspect that it will go into the election with still high WPI (wholesale price index) inflation and softening economic activity,” the report added. As the week progresses, investor bets will likely shift to the outcome of RBI’s monetary policy review on July 29. Given that inflation has not mellowed, analysts expect the central bank to hike the repo rate as part of its attempts to contain prices. In the week to July 5, inflation, represented by the WPI index, rose to 11.91%, as against expectations of over 12% and up from 11.89% in the previous week. Banks and real estate shares may see build-up of short positions in the futures and options (F&O) markets ahead of the monetary policy review.

CLSA notes the 3,688-3,781 level marks an important pivot point for the Nifty, which closed at 4092.25 on Friday. Key corporate results this week include BHEL, Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, ACC, SAIL and Sesa Goa, among others. “These technical levels are important to take note of as they often mark the end of corrections. We would lighten up on existing short positions here. Initial resistance is provided by the August 2007 lows at 3,953-4,021 with key resistance found at 4,412-4,471,” the French brokerage said, in its recent trading strategy note.

Source: ET

Want to See CNBC18 Live

Want to see CNBC18 Live



Source: Deadpresident blog.

Sensex companies valuation halved in six months

Sensex companies valuation halved in six months

BL Research Bureau For every rupee of earnings managed by BSE Sensex companies, investors are today willing to pay only half of what they paid in January 2008.

The market meltdown of 2008 has seen the Sensex value fall by 35 per cent till date, but it has halved the price-to-earnings multiple (PE multiple) for companies in the bellwether index.
The PE multiple of the Sensex, which was at a rich 28 times (based on historic 12-month earnings) at 21,000 levels, has plunged to a staid 14 times now, Bloomberg data shows. The lower valuation indicates that investors now expect Sensex companies to grow at only half the rate that they factored in, in January.

World over, investors value companies based on potential growth and the PE multiple is one of the widely used tools to evaluate how expensive or cheap stocks are, relative to their growth prospects. Worst in a decade

The erosion in Sensex PE multiple in this meltdown may be the worst in a decade, even including the dotcom crash of 2001. Banking and realty companies have been worst hit, with SBI seeing its PE multiple fall from 20 times to just 6, while DLF has seen its PE plunge from 90 times to 8 times.

Reliance Industries, Jaiprakash Associates, SBI, Tata Steel, Reliance Infrastructure (formerly Reliance Energy) and DLF, are among companies that have seen their PE multiples trimmed to half their January level.

Many of these companies have seen their valuation fall even as they managed a sharp ramp-up in their earnings for 2007-08. DLF (earnings per share grew from Rs 13 to Rs 47 between FY07 and FY08), Bharti Airtel (Rs 21 to Rs 34), HDFC (Rs 69 to Rs 100) are key instances. ‘De-rating’ stocks While concerns about rising interest rates have prompted investors to tone down growth expectations from bank and realty companies, worries about the economy slowing down have made them ‘de-rate’ infrastructure and capital goods stocks.

Companies in the Sensex basket that have managed to escape this bout of de-rating are Infosys, Satyam, Ranbaxy Labs, Cipla and Hindalco, which have more or less held on to their PE multiples.

Related Stories:
Indian market sheds more value than other emerging onesForeign brokerages downgrade Indian firmsAnalysts see investment opportunities as stocks take a sharp beating

Source: BL

20 July 2008

Stock Analysis from BusinessLine

STOCKS: Sanghvi Movers: Buy
Investors with a two-three year perspective can consider taking exposure to the stock of Sanghvi Movers, an established player in the business of renting out cranes.

STOCKS: Bajaj Auto: Hold
Shareholders can continue to hold the Bajaj Auto stock. Better domestic sales volumes in the first quarter, robust export growth and planned launches in the executive segment may positively impact the near-medium term ...

STOCKS: HCC: BuyA strong order pipeline, improved profit margins, benefits from recent business restructuring and removal of uncertainty surrounding the unique Bandra-Worli Sealink project, provide better visibility to the earnings growth of Hindustan ...

STOCKS: Shree Renuka Sugars: Buy
The domestic sugar cycle is set to enter a favourable phase for producers, with output expected to decline sharply over the next two years, lending support to sugar prices. ...

INCOME TAX: Tax liabilities on futures and options
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook
FINANCIAL MARKETS: The long and short of rupee futures
INSIGHT: Why oil is on the boil
MUTUAL FUNDS: Franklin India Prima Fund: Switch

IPOS: Vishal Information Technologies - IPO: Avoid
STOCK MARKETS: Politics of the market
DERIVATIVES MARKETS: Nifty future at critical juncture
ECONOMY: Winding down
STOCK MARKETS: Baskets of X / STOCK MARKETS: Bull's Eye



Source: BL

19 July 2008

VC, PE updates

VCCircle.com

Citi In Talks With Oman Investment Corporation For HDFC Stake Sale: Report
RCOM, MTN Call Off Talks; Decision Mutual
Soma Networks Gets $51 Million From India Knowledge Fund, Others
Rabobank Announces First Closure Of $100-M Food & Agri Fund
Government May Quash Press Note 1; Will Help Foreign Partners

Essar Global To Invest Rs 590 Crore In Truck Maker Asia MotorWorks
Exit Time: Murugappa Sells 47% In Parryware To JV Partner For $176M
Siva Cries Foul Over Maxis’ Plans To Sell Aircel Stake
Forum Synergies To Raise $150 Million SME Fund
Khaleeji Commercial Bank Announces $430M Fund For Logistics City In Mumbai

Deepak Parekh Says Enough Takers For Citi Stake In HDFC
Unitech Raises $300 Million Real Estate Fund From Abroad
Avendus Gets Rs 100 Crore From Dubai’s Eastgate Capital
GE Commercial Finance Invests Rs 100 Crore In Controls & Switchgear
South Indian Franchisee Of Pizza Hut, KFC Topping Up A Deal With New Silk Route

Parsvnath Picks Up 38% In Sabeer Bhatia’s Nanocity In Haryana

PE Funding Plans: Warburg-CGH, Balaji Telefilms, Sona Autocomp, Microqual

After The Spice Sale, Modis Hit Capital Market With Cellebrum

Capt. Gopinath Seeks $50 Million For His Cargo Venture

The $52-Billion InBev-Anheuser-Busch Deal To Shake Up India’s Beer Duopoly

UK’s Imperial Energy Confirms ONGC’s $2B-Interest

Bupa Asia-Pacific Picks Up 26% In Health Insurance JV With Max

R-ADAG’s Cement Foray: Who Could Be Their Targets?

Tata’s PE Plans: $200-300 Million Fund Each For Tech, Mid-Caps

Can KP Singh Bring Back The Magic With DLF Share Buyback?

Source: Vccircle.com

Reliance Communications-MTN mutually end tie-up talks

Reliance Communications-MTN mutually end tie-up talks

Reliance Communications and South Africa's MTN on Friday mutually ended tie-up talks after Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries (RIL) on Thursday started arbitration proceedings against younger brother Anil's RCom to thwart the latter’s merger with Africa’s largest telco. RCom said that it is unable to presently conclude the deal due to regulatory issues. The No. 2 mobile carrier in the country has been in exclusive talks with MTN since late May to create a top-10 global telecoms group spanning about two dozen countries. But a claim by elder brother Mukesh of first right of refusal on Reliance Communications shares had complicated prospects for a deal.

The dispute took a fresh turn on Thursday when Mukesh, who runs RIL started arbitration proceedings on the share claim. However, Reliance Communications investors on Friday shrugged off the latest twist in a family squabble clouding the group. A 45-day exclusivity period between RCom and MTN expired earlier this month and an extension was due to end on Monday. The talks have been overshadowed by the dispute and whether MTN would risk striking a deal which could then be beholden to India's judicial system.

MTN Deal: Bharti may be open to fresh talks
Airtel rings in lowest capex
ADAG & Bharti gearing for massive on air war
MTN saga: Tale of Ambanis and Sunil Mittal


Source: ET

18 July 2008

Results: Satyam, Wipro, JPAsso, Cipla, IDFC, Guj.Nre.Coke, GEshipping, Chennai Petro, All.Bk etc

Satyam's Q1 FY09 PAT up 17.3%

Satyam has announced its Q1 FY09 results. It's net profit was up 17.3% at Rs 548 crore versus Rs 467 crore (QoQ). The net sales was up 8.5% at Rs 2,620.8 crore versus Rs 2,416 crore (QoQ).
JP Associates Q1 net profit at Rs 127 cr
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Wipro's Q1 FY09 PAT up 4.2% (QoQ)

Wipro has announced its Q1 FY09 results (Indian GAAP). Consolidated net sales were up 5% at Rs 5,981.1 crore versus Rs 5,691.9 crore (QoQ). Its consolidated net profit was up 4.2% at Rs 907.8 crore versus Rs 871.6 crore (QoQ).
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Jaiprakash Associates has announced its first quarter numbers. Its net profit declined at Rs 127 crore for the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 140 crore.
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Cipla Q1 net profit at Rs 140 cr

Cipla has announced its first quarter consolidated numbers. It has reported net profit of Rs 140 crore for the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 119.76 crore in same period of last year.
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Sona Koyo Q1 FY09 net loss at Rs 1.6cr
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Chennai Petroleum Corp Q1 net profit at Rs 703.27 cr

Chennai Petroleum Corporation has declared its results for the quarter ended June 2008 (Q1). The company's net profit was at Rs 703.27 crore versus Rs 323 crore.
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Guj NRE Coke Q1 FY09 PAT at Rs 94.4 cr

Guj NRE Coke has announced it's Q1 FY09 results. The net profit was at Rs 94.4 crore versus Rs 42.8 crore. It's net sales was at Rs 378 crore versus Rs 149 crore.
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Ultratech Cement Q1 net profit at Rs 265 cr

Ultratech Cement has announced its first quarter numbers. It has posted net profit of Rs 265 crore for the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 259.4 crore in same period of last year.
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Allahabad Bank Q1 net profit at Rs 93.4 cr

Allahabad Bank has announced its first quarter numbers. Its net profit declined at Rs 93.4 crore as against Rs 200.4 crore in same period of last year.
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KPIT Cummins Q1 PAT at Rs 12.89 cr

KPIT Cummins Infosystems has declared its results for the quarter ended June 2008 (Q1). The company's Q1 PAT was at Rs 12.89 crore versus Rs 12.68 crore on YoY basis.
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IDFC Q1 net profit at Rs 204 cr

IDFC has declared its first quarter numbers for FY09. Its net profit went up at Rs 204 crore for the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 167 crore in same period of last year.
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GE Shipping Q1 net profit at Rs 387 cr

Great Eastern Shipping has announced its first quarter numbers. It has reported net profit of Rs 387 crore for the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 421 crore in same period of last year.
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Maxwell Ind Q1 PAT at Rs 2.03 cr

Maxwell Industries has announced its results for the quarter ended June 2008 (Q1). The company's PAT was down by 23% at Rs 2.03 crore on YoY basis.
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Sasken's Q1 FY09 PAT at Rs 13.7cr

Sasken Communication has announced its Q1 FY09 results. The revenue was at Rs 168 crore. It has net prfoit of Rs 13.7 crore versus Rs 7 crore (QoQ).
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Apollo Tyres Q1 net profit at Rs 48.6 cr

Apollo Tyres has declared its results for the quarter ended June 2008 (Q1). The company's Q1 net profit was at Rs 48.6 crore versus Rs 46.7 crore.
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Kirloskar Brothers Q1 net loss at Rs 4.48 cr

Kirloskar Brothers has announced its results for the quarter ended June 2008 (Q1). The company's Q1 net loss was at Rs 4.48 crore versus net profit of Rs 25.7 crore.
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Hikal Q1 net profit at Rs 10.7 cr
Rama Newsprint Q1 net profit at Rs 4.2 cr
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Polaris Q1 net profit at Rs 27.01 cr

Polaris Software Lab has declared its first quarter results. The company's Q1 net profit at Rs 27.01 crore versus Rs 21.45 crore, QoQ.
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Allahabad Bank net profit declines 53.41% in the June 2008 quarter
Net profit of Allahabad Bank declined 53.41% to Rs 93.36 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 200.40 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007. Total operating income rose 20.28% to Rs 1732.60 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 1440.46 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007.
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GTL Infrastructure reports net loss of Rs 3.19 crore in the June 2008 quarter
Can Fin Homes net profit rises 61.08% in the June 2008 quarter
Ponni Sugars Erode reports net loss of Rs 1.03 crore in the June 2008 quarter
Zuari Industries net profit rises 926.32% in the June 2008 quarter
Shree Cement net profit declines 5.14% in the June 2008 quarter
Sical Logistics reports net loss of Rs 5.01 crore in the June 2008 quarter
ETC Networks reports net profit of Rs 1.98 crore in the June 2008 quarter
I G Petrochemicals net profit declines 49.85% in the June 2008 quarter


Source: CapitalMarket.com, Indiaearnings.com

Market rejoices host of good news; Sensex up 4%

Market rejoices host of good news; Sensex up 4%



Investors had enough reasons to turn bullish on Friday and build on the gains of previous session. They not only covered short positions in interest sensitive sectors, but made fresh purchases in select blue chips.


After market hours on Thursday, government data showed India’s inflation for the week ended July 5 had risen to 11.91 per cent, higher from previous week's 11.89 per cent. The figure came as a surprise for the market which was expecting it around 12 per cent. Add to this, a statement from the Department of Economic Affairs that inflation had ‘stabilised’ was morale booster.
Mood in US financial market, which has been under pressure due to credit crisis, turned positive after lender JP Morgan Chase announced better than expected results.



US stocks rallied overnight also as oil prices dropped sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.85 per cent, Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 1.20 per cent, and Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.20 per cent.


Steep fall in crude oil prices, a major concern for global economies, further strengthened sentiment. Oil hovered above $130 per barrel on Friday, after correcting more than 10 per cent in just three days from the record high of $147.27 on July 11. Rally in European markets also gave investors a chance to build on. FTSE 100 was higher by 1 per cent, DAX 30 up 1.79 per cent and CAC 40 added 0.79 per cent.


“Oil prices have come down and inflation figures were on expected lines. So far companies have announced good quarterly results. Many market participants have discounted outcome of vote of confidence and feel that the government will be able to scrape through. These all factors led to rally in the market,” said Rahul Sanghvi, institutional sales, Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities.


Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 13635.40, up 523.55 points or 3.99 per cent. It touched a high of 13684.27 and low of 13093.34. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 4092.25, up 3.67 per cent or 145.05 points. The broader index touched a high of 4,110.55 and low of 3,926.30.


“Selling by FIIs has reduced a bit and local mutual funds have initiated buying in blue chips like Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries and Infosys Technologies. Valuations of most stocks look attractive at current levels,” Sanghvi added. Tier II and III stocks under performed the benchmarks as BSE Midcap Index closed 1.63 per cent high at 5239.39 and BSE Smallcap Index ended 1.08 per cent up 6,455.89.


Biggest Sensex gainers were ICICI Bank (12.46%), HDFC (10.13%), Jaiprakash Associates (8.86%), HDFC Bank (7.54%), Bharti Airtel (7.5%) and DLF (6.51%). Losers comprised Satyam Computer (-7.5%), Wipro (-4.42%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (3.72%), Tata Steel (3.38%) and Infosys Technologies (1.51%). Market breadth on BSE showed 1,608 advances and 985 declines, while on NSE, there were 849 gainers and 349 losers.
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Market consolidates, though Nifty July discount widens
Sensex surges 523 points on heavy buying
Citi gives buy rating on Colgate Palmolive
JM Finnacial starts coverage on ITC
Wall St closes mixed on Citigroup



IDFC net up 20 pc at Rs 216.71 cr
Jaiprakash Associates Q1 net up 9% at Rs 127 cr
Gujarat NRE Coke Q1 net at Rs 94.4 cr
India's M3 growth at 20.5% in two weeks to July 4
India's forex reserves at $308.520 billion on July 11

MF AUM could account for 20% of GDP in 5 yrs