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15 September 2008
Sensex is at a crucial level, Investor Guide frm ET
The Sensex, after recording its all-time high of 21206 points in January 2008, has been trading lower. The broader trend has turned negative, as the long-term upward bias channelled trend for the index has been breached in January 2008. Since the index has been trading below the channel trend line and continues to form lower highs and lower lows.
The bear phase that began in January 2008 would remain intact for minimum 18 months, which is the one-third of the time period taken by the Sensex bull rally which began in May 2003 and ended in January 2008 (lasted for 56 months of time period). Hence, the bear phase would continue to last for a minimum of 10 months more i.e. up to July 2009. However, it remains to be seen whether the recent low of 12514 formed in July 2008 would remain intact, as the bottom for the current bear phase, or if the Sensex would form a new low below 12514.
Sensex’s downward move from its all-time high of 21206 on the weekly chart is channelled and continues to from lower highs and lower lows, indicating the continuation of the bear phase. As long as the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows and moves within the channel, it is most likely to slip below its recent low of 12514 to form a new low. During the current downtrend, we have so far witnessed three rallies and each rally has been of minimum 3000 points and the fall, following the rally, has been of minimum 5000 points.
The Sensex opened with a bullish gap during the week and recorded a high of 15107 on Monday, rising by 624 points intra-day. However, it failed to hold on to its initial gains and corrected subsequently to end the week negative by 483 points. The Sensex has given a close at 14000 levels, which is very crucial. The rise from 12514 recorded in July 2008 till date has formed a NeoWave “Extracting Triangle” pattern or a “Head and Shoulder” pattern. Trading below 14000 levels for two consecutive days would confirm the bearish breakout of the pattern, under this scenario the Sensex could move down to 13727-13505 points. Any pull-back would get resisted at the neckline whose value for the current week is placed at 14215. Above this level, the next resistance is placed at 14523, which is due to the weekly channel resistance trend line. At higher levels, the Sensex move above 15579 level would negate the negative outlook for the index, in which case fresh buying can be suggested. Until then, stay away from the market.
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Week Ahead: Poised for downside breakout
The market weakened noticeably in another lacklustre week. The Nifty found support at 4,200 on Friday to close at 4,228.45 points for a loss of 2.85 per cent. The Sensex was down 3.33 per cent at 14,000.81. The Defty lost 4.94 per cent as the rupee slid sharply.
The overall breadth perspective was extremely negative. Advances were far outnumbered by declines. The Junior lost 3.67 per cent and the BSE 500 lost 3.3 per cent. Volumes were low except on Friday where there was massive selling. The FIIs were large and consistent net sellers and the domestic institutions were also net sellers.
Outlook: The market may be poised for a downside breakout. It has already tested a key support at 4,200. If it closes below 4,180, a drop till the 3,950 level is very likely though there is plenty of interim support between 3,950-4,150.
Rationale: An intermediate uptrend started at the low of 3,790 in mid-July and after eight weeks, the trend could well be reversing. The past two weeks have seen tightly rangebound trading on low volumes.
On Friday, the lower end of that range was tested with volume expansion. If there's a breakout (close below 4,179) the downside would be at least 3,950 and maybe, lower. A pessimist would project a low between 3,700-3,800.
Counter-view: Despite the selling pressure, the support at 4,200 did hold. It is possible that the index will continue to range trade. However it seems unlikely and a sharp recovery seems impossible unless there's a big volume expansion and reversal of institutional attitude.
Bulls & bears: There were almost no bulls to speak of. The big losses came in the IT sector and in realty and banks. In one sense, the CNXIT's loss of 3.07 per cent was surprising since the rupee dropped. Most of the losses came on Friday when bellwether Infy dropped 6 per cent and every IT major lost ground.
The selloffs in banking and realty were less paradoxical. The Bank Nifty lost 1.5 per cent and is very likely to lose more next week. All key banking and financial stocks look bearish but the PSUs such as PNB and BoB may hold ground better.
Realty seems to have a 3-week sell cycle and is not likely to recover until short-covering comes in near settlement. Metals saw selling through the week but a recovery of sorts was noticeable on Friday as Sail and Nalco stabilised and the bearish momentum in Tata Steel eased.
Apart from these, pivotals like Reliance Industries and Reliance Infra were also bearish. On the buyside, Airtel is one of the few heavyweights that could move against the tide.
Hind Unilever, BHEL and NTPC may also hold their ground. New listing Austral is still getting high volumes as well though it is much too early to take a technical call.
MICRO TECHNICALS
AirtelCurrent Price: Rs 778.85Target Price: Rs 810
The stock dropped to a low of Rs 745 from a September high of Rs 848 before it started to firm up on Friday. It has the potential to climb till Rs 810 at least on an intra-day basis. Keep a stop at Rs 770 and go long. Be prepared for an intra-day swing of around Rs 50-60. Book profits above Rs 805.
Bhel Current Price: Rs 1,698Target Price: Rs 1,735
The stock has made a sharp recovery from Rs 1,660. It has potential to rise till around Rs 1,735. Keep a stop at Rs 1,690 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 1,725 because higher prices may not be sustainable except on an intra-day basis.
Reliance Capital Current Price: Rs 1,210.20Target Price: Rs 1,050
The stock is testing a key support and if it closes below Rs 1,200, it will have a downside target of Rs 1,050. There is some interim support at Rs 1,125. Keep a stop at Rs 1,225 and go short. Book a partial profit at Rs 1,125 and hold the rest of the position down to Rs 1,050.
Reliance IndustriesCurrent Price: Rs 1,932Target Price: Rs 1,750
The stock has made a downside breakout with a sharp volume expansion. The target projection from the charts suggests that a target of Rs 1,650 is possible. However, RIL is already close to its 2008 low and those projections may be wildly inaccurate. A conservative target is Rs 1,750. Keep a sliding stop at Rs 1,970 and go short. Move the stop down by Rs 20 for every 20 point move in the stock. Book profits at Rs 1,750.
Tata Steel Current Price: Rs 523.65Target Price: NA
The stock is at its 2008 low. It made the downside breakout by closing below Rs 590 in early September and then it broke Rs 560, which was the next support. The downside target could be Rs 520 or Rs 490 depending on the strength of the current support. The upside would be Rs 560 on a bounce with some resistance at Rs 540. A long position with a stop at Rs 515 looks the best chance. Book some profit at Rs 540 and cash out above Rs 555.
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Investor's Guide
Technical Analysis: Bull market?
Best stock picks in the Services sector
SMR warns of meltdown
Divide your portfolio Long term plan: Fortis, Solar Explosives
Proper risk & money management important for profitable trading
What Freddie-Fannie bailout means for Asia? 15 Sep, 2008, 0531 hrs IST
US home buyers haven’t been the only ones counting on the supposed reliability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Great Offshore & Varun Shipping best bets in shipping sector 15 Sep, 2008, 0528 hrs IST, Karan Sehgal
The only ray of hope in the shipping sector comes from investments in offshore supply vessels. Great Offshore and Varun Shipping are the best bets in this space.
Analysts' picks: M&M, Dabur, R-Power,Citigroup, Amtek & Arvind 15 Sep, 2008, 0458 hrs IST
Analysts' picks: M&M, Dabur, R-Power,Citigroup, Amtek & Arvind
Greenply Industries stocks looks promising 15 Sep, 2008, 0449 hrs IST, Amit Jain
Greenply Industries is set to put up a good show in FY10 as one of its units will go on stream in July-August ’09.The stock looks promising for investors with a horizon of 12-18 months
Tata Steel to become even bigger in future: CFO 15 Sep, 2008, 0429 hrs IST, SANTANU MISHRA AND KRISHNA KANT
Tata Steel Group CFO Koushik Chatterjee shares his vision of the company becoming even bigger in future
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14 September 2008
Hotttt Jobs from CoolAvenues
12 September 2008 - Senior Manager / Manager / Analyst - Credit Modelling One of the Leading Banks
12 September 2008 - Group Director / Managing Director - Infrastructure Sector One of the Largest Indian Corporate
11 September 2008 - Product Head & Product Manager (PL & LAP) An MNC Non-Banking Finance Company
11 September 2008 - DGM - Alliances A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
11 September 2008 - Principal / Executive Consultant - Consulting Health Sector Practice One of the Largest Consulting Firms in the World
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager / Account Manager / Sr. Account Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - VP - Business Development (Mumbai) Global Real Estate Fund
11 September 2008 - CEO - Broking Global Financial Company
10 September 2008 - Relationship Managers - Private Wealth Management Group One of the Top Global Financial Services Firms
10 September 2008 - VP - Operations Fortune 100 Infrastructure Fund
9 September 2008 - HR & Employee Transformation Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
9 September 2008 - Transformation & Strategy Consultants - Senior to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
8 September 2008 - CFO One of the Largest Web-based Application Providers
8 September 2008 - COO One of the Largest Web-based Application Providers
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Marketing/ Sales/ Advertising
12 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - Managed Infrastructure Services A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
12 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - Farming Sales One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - Product Head & Product Manager (PL & LAP) An MNC Non-Banking Finance Company
11 September 2008 - Assistant Manager - Broadband Sales A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
11 September 2008 - DGM - Alliances A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
11 September 2008 - Service Manager A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager / Account Manager / Sr. Account Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - VP - Business Development (Mumbai) Global Real Estate Fund
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - New Business One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - CEO - Broking Global Financial Company
11 September 2008 - Trade Lane Manager Global MNC Logistics Company
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - AMT Sales A US Multi-national Industry Leader in Convergence Space
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - New Business A US Multi-national Industry Leader in Convergence Space
10 September 2008 - Project Lead / Business Analyst A Leading Media Company
9 September 2008 - Marketing, Sales & Services Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
9 September 2008 - Transformation & Strategy Consultants - Senior to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
5 September 2008 - Chief Marketing Officer Biggest Web-based Application Company
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Finance/ Banking
12 September 2008 - Senior Manager / Manager / Analyst - Credit Modelling One of the Leading Banks
12 September 2008 - Group Director / Managing Director - Infrastructure Sector One of the Largest Indian Corporate
12 September 2008 - Senior Consultant (Internal Audit) One of the Big Four Consulting Firms
11 September 2008 - CEO - Broking Global Financial Company
11 September 2008 - Principal / Executive Consultant - Consulting Health Sector Practice One of the Largest Consulting Firms in the World
11 September 2008 - Senior Analyst - Risk Consulting One of the Leading Big 4 Companies
11 September 2008 - Oracle Apps Financial Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
10 September 2008 - VP / Director - Private Equity A UK-based Private Equity Firm looking to Enter India
10 September 2008 - Relationship Managers - Private Wealth Management Group One of the Top Global Financial Services Firms
10 September 2008 - VP - Operations Fortune 100 Infrastructure Fund
9 September 2008 - Finance Transformation Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
8 September 2008 - CFO One of the Largest Web-based Application Providers
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HR
11 September 2008 - Oracle Apps HRMS Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
9 September 2008 - HR & Employee Transformation Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
9 September 2008 - Manager - HR Manipal Cure & Care
9 September 2008 - Manager - Organizational Effectiveness Birla Sunlife Insurance Company Ltd.
9 September 2008 - Assistant Manager - Talent Assessment Birla Sunlife Insurance Company Ltd.
4 September 2008 - HR Relationship Manager One of the Leading Credit Card Companies
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General Management
12 September 2008 - Group Director / Managing Director - Infrastructure Sector One of the Largest Indian Corporate
11 September 2008 - Principal / Executive Consultant - Consulting Health Sector Practice One of the Largest Consulting Firms in the World
11 September 2008 - Senior Analyst - Risk Consulting One of the Leading Big 4 Companies
10 September 2008 - Project Lead / Business Analyst A Leading Media Company
10 September 2008 - VP - Operations Fortune 100 Infrastructure Fund
9 September 2008 - Supply Chain Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
9 September 2008 - Marketing, Sales & Services Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
9 September 2008 - HR & Employee Transformation Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
9 September 2008 - Finance Transformation Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
9 September 2008 - Transformation & Strategy Consultants - Senior to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
9 September 2008 - Senior Consultant / Analyst - Government Strategy Lab Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
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Technology
12 September 2008 - Opening in SAP FICO One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
12 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - Managed Infrastructure Services A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
12 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - Farming Sales One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - Assistant Manager - Broadband Sales A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
11 September 2008 - DGM - Alliances A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
11 September 2008 - Program Manager - Total Outsourcing One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - Service Manager A Leading Player in Domestic Telecom Market
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager / Account Manager / Sr. Account Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - New Business One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - AMT Sales A US Multi-national Industry Leader in Convergence Space
11 September 2008 - Business Development Manager - New Business A US Multi-national Industry Leader in Convergence Space
11 September 2008 - Oracle Apps HRMS Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - Oracle Apps Financial Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
10 September 2008 - Quality Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
8 September 2008 - COO One of the Largest Web-based Application Providers
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Operations Management/ SCM; Transition/ Operations (BPO/KPO);
Operations (Banking)
12 September 2008 - Opening in SAP FICO One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
12 September 2008 - Group Director / Managing Director - Infrastructure Sector One of the Largest Indian Corporate
11 September 2008 - Trade Lane Manager Global MNC Logistics Company
11 September 2008 - Program Manager - Total Outsourcing One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - Oracle Apps HRMS Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
11 September 2008 - Oracle Apps Financial Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
10 September 2008 - Quality Manager One of the Top 3 Companies in the Domestic IT Market
9 September 2008 - Supply Chain Consultants - Consultant to Managing Consultant Level Capgemini Consulting India Pvt. Ltd.
Source: Coolavenues.com
PE,VC news
Sahara Arm Exits NBFC Business; To Shift To Real Estate Activities
ICICI Venture, Providence In Joint Bid For Firstsource: Report
Reliance ADAG Acquires Stake In Forex Company Wall Street Finance
TPG To Invest $120M In Shriram Group's Consumer Finance Arm
NHPC To Hit The Public Markets Around Diwali
QAI India Buys Out Parent Company In USA
SAP Ventures Invests In Software Product Co Newgen Software
Fortis Launches $565M Clean Energy Fund; India On Radar
Dewan Housing To Raise $250 Million Realty Fund
Anil Ambani's Deal With Spielberg Stuck Over Debt Financing
Battery Ventures Makes Ramneek Gupta Partner; To Open India Office
Hedge Fund Platinum Capital Management May Open A Shop In India
CLSA Launches Long Only Clean Water Asia Fund
GVFL-backed 20 Micron Files DRHP For Public Offering
Norway's Telenor Close To Getting Stake in Unitech Wireless: Report
S Kumars Close To Acquiring Italian Shirt Co For Euro 75 Million
Rural Financial Inclusion Firm A. Little. World. Raises $6.5 Million
IFCI Venture Capital Invests $4.6M In Marck Biosciences
Seventymm Raises $12 Million In Third Round From NEA IndoUS, Others
Ojas Venture Partners Invests In Mobile Tech Firm Mango
SAP Ventures Invests In Software Product Co Newgen Software
Fortis Launches $565M Clean Energy Fund; India On Radar
Dewan Housing To Raise $250 Million Realty Fund
Texas Pacific Raises New $30 Billion Fund; $4 Billion For Asia Fund
Job Listings
Associate Vice President - Corporate Finance - Intellecap
AVP/VP - A Top Notch Indian Investment Bank
Associate - TresVista
Associate Level - Private Equity Opening - Mumbai
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Brushman India to acquire stake in Snowcem Paint
PE players develop a liking for healthcare providers
Providence, ICICI arm in joint bid for Firstsource
TPG to invest Rs 530 cr in Shriram's finance arm
Anil Ambani sets his sights on buying Everton
QAI India buys out US parent
Roots to offload 20% equity to private equity funds
Raj Television eyes print, plans stake sale to PE
INX to mop up Rs 600 cr by selling stake
Dewan Housing arm lines up $250 million real estate fund
SAP Ventures buys minority stake in Newgen Tech for Rs 10cr
Bharti Airtel launches $44 mn venture fund
PE funds: real estate developers find performance pays
Capital crunch, valuations may hit PE funding in infrastructure
Etisalat close to buying 51% stake in Swan Tele
Source:Vccircle.com, IndiaPE.com
Stock Reports from Deadpresident
Buzz from Deal Street
Weekly Stock Picks - Sep 14 2008
Buy Hindustan Unilever
Buy BHEL
Buy Jindal Saw
Buy GAIL
Buy L&T
Weekly Newsletter - Sep 12 2008
Industrial output picks up in July
Rupee weakens to nearly two-year low
N-deal...Massive investment expected in power sect...
Infosys sinks on profit warning
Bank of India
Glenmark Pharma
Ranbaxy
India Economics
Shree Renuka Sugar
Stock Picks
Weekly Wrap - Sep 12 2008
India IT Services
India Inflation
Bharti Airtel, BHEL
Maruti Suzuki, Pantaloon Retail
India Steel Sector Update
ONGC
Insurers are biggest investor in stocks
Reliance Communications, Apollo Tyres, Britannia
Energy and Metals Update - Sep 11 2008
New Lows for Sensex
Suzlon Energy
Suzlon Energy
Bajaj Hindustan, Balrampur Chini, Triveni Engineer...
Maruti Suzuki
Coal Mining
Sesa Goa
Unitech
India Real Estate
Sterlite Industries Ltd.
GAIL
Reliance Industries, RPL
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WKLY TECH ANALYSIS: Buying activity may boost Sensex
The Sensex boomeranged after hitting a high of 15,107 early in the week. The markets began the week with a bang on the back of Indo-US nuclear deal but ended on a whimper despite lower inflation and higher IIP numbers.
The index retraced sharply from the resistance zone of 15,100-15,170, and tumbled towards the weekly support level of 13,970. The index touched an intra-week low of 13,934, and finally settled with a loss of 483 points at 14,001.
Metal, realty and energy stocks were the major losers last week, while cement and FMCG stocks were able to attract buyers. Sterlite nose-dived over 17 per cent, mainly on account of the company’s restructuring plan, to Rs 487. Reliance Infrastructure, Tata Power, RIL, Tata Steel, Jaiprakash Associates, DLF, Mahindra & Mahindra and ICICI Bank dropped by 5-8 per cent each.
Maruti, Hindustan Unilever, Grasim and ACC, on the other hand, ended with marginal gains.
The Sensex is now getting closer to the lower band of support mentioned for this month, that is 13,350-13,500. On can expect considerable buying support at these levels, and possibly a bounce back, too.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of over 350 points - from a high of 4,558, to a low of 4,200 - before settling with a loss of 124 points at 4,228.The strong support base for the Nifty at 4,050 to 4,080 could come into play this week. If the index is able to maintain this support zone, one is likely to witness the index’s bounce back to atleast 4,370 to 4,450.
Source:Deadpresident, BS.
Market Ideas from BusinessLine
DERIVATIVES MARKETS: Nifty future comes under more pressureDespite a promising opening, the Nifty September future finished precariously low at 4245.8, registering a fall of 2.4 per cent over the previous week’s close. ...
STOCK MARKETS: Markets not enthused by positive news flowsThe stock markets gave a thumbs-up last Monday after the country received a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group for receiving nuclear fuel supply. The BSE Sensex opened with a huge gap and ended the day with a 461-point gain. The ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: Buy Gold ETFsLooking for an investment option that will perform well when stocks don’t? Gold fulfils this role admirably. Low historic correlation with the Sensex and long-term returns that beat inflation are the key reasons for an Indian investor to ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner: What the charts sayPlease let me know the medium-term outlook of Larsen and Toubro. ...
INCOME TAX: Tax exemption on property buyI am a senior citizen. I have sold a residential house, for Rs 36 lakh. I have out of the sale proceeds cleared a home loan on the said property of Rs 7 lakh. I propose to invest Rs 30 lakh to purchase land and construct a ...
INVESTMENTS: The ‘Beta’ guideBeta is the measure of the volatility of a particular stock in comparison with the market. It indicates the stock’s correlation with the market index and cautions on the risk associated with it. Since volatility is an inherent aspect of ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
InfosysThe Rs 100 cut in the Infosys stock price on Friday has reversed our positive medium-term view for the stock. The bearish engulfing candle formed on this day implies that the move since August 18 was a distribution phase and not a running ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: RelianceRIL is poised on the brink. The support at Rs 1,900 has held the stock over the last two months. A reversal from current levels will imply that a flat pattern is currently unfolding that can take the stock higher to Rs 2,200 or Rs 2,400 in the ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Tata SteelIt was a dismal show by Tata Steel last week with a 7 per cent weekly decline. The stock has closed below the key support at Rs 557. If we assume that the third wave from the Rs 925-peak has commenced at the August peak at Rs 700, the minimum ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: UnitechUnitech held resolutely above Rs 150 and moved in a narrow range as indicated in our last column. The short-term view for this stock is negative but traders should wait for a decline below Rs 150 before initiating fresh shorts on this counter. ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: SBIState Bank of India recorded an intra-week peak at Rs 1,604 before declining last week. But the mild nature of the correction implies that the near-term outlook stays positive. Immediate supports for the stock would be at Rs 1,458 and then Rs ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Reliance InfraThis stock reversed downwards from an intra-week peak at Rs 1,101 and declined to the support at Rs 920. ...
STOCKS: Educomp: HoldShareholders in Educomp Solutions, an education solutions provider, can stay invested with a one-two year horizon considering the company’s strong growth prospects in digital content and product licensing to private schools and strong ...
STOCKS: Bannari Amman Sugars: BuyThe sugar cycle is on the verge of an upturn, with the sharp contraction in sugarcane acreage pointing to lower sugar output and tighter supply over the next couple of years. With sugar prices already beginning their ascent, producers can look ...
STOCKS: Shree Cement: BuyThe sharp de-rating of cement stocks, due to concerns about limited pricing power, has trimmed valuations for producers such as Shree Cement. ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: ICICI Prudential Indo Asian Equity: HoldDiversification within an asset class can minimise risk for equity investors and with the Indian market entering turbulent times, funds that invest in stocks outside India help tide over market volatility and insulate themselves against purely ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: DBS Chola Hedged Equity: HoldInvestors can retain their units of DBS Chola Hedged Equity Fund. In little over a year since its launch, the fund’s performance stands out, its returns bettering both its benchmark CNX Nifty and category average for diversified equity ...
STOCK MARKETS: Bull's EyeE-mail your response by Tuesday to
STOCK MARKETS: Baskets of XE-mail your guess before Tuesday to
NEW FUND OFFER: UpdateBirla Sun Life asset management company has launched Birla Sun Life Commodity Equities Fund. ...
Source: BusinessLine
13 September 2008
Crack is showing, RIL struggles below Rs 2,000
Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL), India largest-private sector company, continued its slide on Friday on rising concerns over the oil and gas major's profitability. The stock shed over 3% to close at Rs 1,931.40, closing below the psychological Rs 2,000-mark for the second successive session. Analysts expect RIL’s bottomline and operating margins to be hit by the falling crude oil and crack prices, globally. Cracks such as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline are the products derived from refining crude oil.
Fears that the global economy is headed for recession and hurricane Gustav not being as worse as previously imagined has brought down oil prices to $101 from near $150 levels a few weeks back. This and the finished product mix of RIL will lead to weakening in gross refining margins (GRM) of RIL, analysts opine.
During the past couple of months, gas oil (diesel) cracks have come down while those of fuel oil have risen. However, since RIL does not process crude into fuel oil, it will be more hard-pressed than other refiners, a official with a oil firm said. “Simply put, the Reliance gross refining margin faces more downward pressure in the second quarter (July-Sept) than other refiners’ GRM which have fuel oil as part of their product basket,” the official said. Diesel, jet fuel and gasoline are among the major products sold by RIL.
According to the market talk, few analysts have downgraded their price targets for the RIL stock, which today vary from Rs 1,900 to Rs 3,800. However, as per Bloomberg data, only two analysts have a “sell” rating of the on the stock company. One of them, Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak says that his firm sees potential downside risks to its earnings estimates of RIL, since its earnings are highly sensitive to refining margins and weaker-than-expected margins could significantly impact their earnings.
“We could see a short-term rebound from current very low levels but we believe that refining margins will likely remain weak for the next 12 months at least led by weak global demand and large refining capacity additions later in the current year,” Mr Prasad wrote recently in a note to clients.
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S&P affirms Vedanta Resources; Outlook revised to stable
Buy Aban Offshore for target Rs 3,569: Sharekhan
Analysts' pick: Kamat Hotels
Analysts' pick: AIA Engineering
Sharekhan maintains 'buy' on Unity Infraprojects for target Rs 871
Analysts' pick: Bajaj Hindustan
Analysts' pick: Container Corp
Tatas to rollout 1,000 Nanos from Pune plant
NRL posts Rs 374 crore net profit
IFCI wants clarity on govt debt before stake sale
NMDC to invest $4.3 bln on capacity expansion
India Apr-Aug indirect tax receipts up 10.5 pc y/y
Indirect tax collections touch Rs 1,12,643 cr
Datatec acquires 50.01% stake in Inflow Technologies
TCS to holds 50% in power exchange
Heard on the Street
Canara HSBC Life charts new path to quick profits
IT stocks turn bearish, pull Sensex down to 14,000
Forex reserves down $6.5 b
Markets this week(Latest Audio:English)
Source:ET,BL
12 September 2008
Industrial growth at 7.1% in July
Industrial growth recovered to 7.1 per cent in July from the dismal performance in previous two months of the current fiscal, even though it moderated compared with 8.3 per cent recorded a year ago.
The improved data may give some breather to the Government and RBI, struggling hard to check the double-digit inflation through tightening monetary policy, which hampers the growth process.
While the manufacturing, which contributes about 80 per cent to IIP, grew by 7.5 per cent in July, compared with 8.8 per cent a year ago, electricity generation was up by 4.5 per cent, against 7.5 per cent.
Mining output growth, however, was quite higher at 5 per cent from 3.2 per cent a year ago. The growth in industrial production, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), was low at 3.8 per cent in May and 5.4 per cent in June.
In April, however, industrial growth stood at 7 per cent, more or less same as in July. As such, industrial growth turned out to be 5.7 per cent in the first four months of this fiscal, against 9.7 per cent a year ago.
The data came close to first quarterly economic growth figures at 7.9 per cent and would play a crucial role for the GDP figures for the next quarter. If, this trend continues and other sectors like agriculture and services also contribute, GDP figure ma y be quite higher for the second quarter, analysts said. - PTI
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Other stories:
India intrigued by Bush observation on fuel supply
Sensex sheds 323pts; tech, realty stocks tank
Industrial production dips to 7.1% y-o-y
Source:ET,BS,BL.
Mkt shrugs off IIP, fear of slowdown weighs, Sensex dn 323 pts
SENSEX | 14000.81 | -323.48 |
NIFTY | 4228.45 | -61.85 |
“The upbeat cues from global markets, better than expected IIP data and easing inflation failed to lift investor sentiment as weak data from Europe and China increased concerns over global economic slowdown," said Sachin Advani, analyst with Raxson Wealth Management.
Top losers from the Sensex were, Reliance Infra (-6.32%), Infosys (-6%) and ICICI Bank (-4.89%). Top gainers were Maruti Suzuki (3.61%), BHEL (1.92%) and Hindustan Unilever (0.83%). The index advance-declines ratio was 1:5.
Though the rupee depreciated to a 2-year low against the dollar, IT stocks tumbled on investment bank UBS saying a sharp appreciation in the dollar against the British pound and euro would hit IT firms' revenue in dollar terms by 1-2 per cent and following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
As per the European Union Statistics, output in the 15-nation euro area fell 0.3 per cent in July, its third consecutive drop, and employment growth eased to 0.2 per cent in the second quarter from 0.3 per cent in the first.
China's industrial production grew at the slowest pace in six years. The industrial output rose to 12.8 per cent in August against 14.7 per cent in July.
IIP Data
India’s Index for Industrial Production grew by 7.1 per cent in July compared with 8.3 per cent a year ago. Capital goods grew 21.9 per cent compared with 12.3 per cent in the same period previous year.
“IIP numbers for July have come as positive surprise. The figures are encouraging and supported by growth across sectors. The robust growth in capital goods segment by 21.9 per cent (on higher base of 12.3%) support the fact that though there have been some signs of slowing in investment, it has not been severely impacted. However, perhaps the biggest surprise came from consumer durable goods segment which grew by 11.2 per cent against negative growth of 2.7 per cent last year. The 22 month high growth in consumer durables suggests that in spite of higher interest rate regime there has been demand growth from consumers," said, Krupresh Thakkar, research analyst at India Capital Markets.
Inflation Cooling
Wholesale price index based inflation fell--for the straight third week--to 12.1 per cent for the week ended August 30, from 12.34 per cent a week ago.
“Though the headline inflation number - WPI has been lower at 12.10 per cent compared to 12.34 per cent in previous week, it is owing to the higher base effect (last year, for the same period the inflation index had gone up by 0.42 bps or 9 ticks on weekly basis). When we look at the weekly numbers, we observe that there has been rise in weekly inflation numbers by 0.29 bps. Going forward, we feel that inflation concerns would continue for some more time (especially in manufacturing group) before it starts to cool down from end of third quarter," Thakkar added.
Google's amazing journey
The $19 billion search giant Google is just ten years old , but it has outclassed its competitors - namely Microsoft and Yahoo! - in the online world.
The company today has a host of enviable offerings - Google search, Gmail, Page Rank, Adsense, Google Mobile, Google Earth, Google Maps, Google Docs, Orkut, Blogger, YouTube, Android (a platform for mobiles), Cloud Computing initiatives, and now Chrome.
Text: Business Standard
Image: This is where it all started 10 years ago. This is the house where Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin rented the garage to set up Google Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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It even has a patent for a "floating data centre". Moreover, it is learning how to monetise these; the figures do the talking. Google has a market value of over $130 billion and cash reserves of around $13 billion.
It employs 20,000 people worldwide, including in India. Its co-founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin - both 35 now - are worth nearly $19 billion apiece.
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Google's start, though, was not smooth. Mr Page and Mr Brin did not hit it off immediately.
In fact it is said that they often had arguments while they were students at Stanford University, which they set aside to grow the company.
For more Visit:Google's amazing journey
Source:ET