Business Headlines from Sites,Blogs

Mitsubishi buys 20% stake in Morgan Stanley
US stocks open lower after bank bailout plan
Microsoft to buy back $40 billion of stock
Volatility in market to continue
Mkts try to analyse Wall St changes

Short build up trims Sep premium
Govt relaxes ECB norms for core cos
China toxic milk sickens 53,000
Goldman, M Stanley to be holding cos


Where AIG went wrong
AIG, world's most sophisticated insurer proved to be far from adept at managing its own risk. Despite assets in excess of $1 trillion.
Eight days that shook the world US mortgage crisis
BoJ to inject up to $30 bn Nomura buys Lehman's Asia biz

Tulip bags Rs 95 cr order from Madhya Pradesh
Kingfisher cuts 300 jobs; to return surplus aircrafts

Investor's Guide
Fluctuations are signals from mkt that warrant action
Shree Renuka Sugars: A good long-term bet
Banco Products: An attractive pick for conservative investors
Bilcare conquering new frontiers
Fundamental values amid crumbling free-market principles


Bull's eye: Info Edge, ONGC, Hindustan Unilever, Pantaloon Retail,Bartronics India, HDIL
Fixed income funds become increasingly important
In the spotlight: Digitally Speaking
Everest Kanto Cylinders for Long-term investors
Turmoil Redefined: Indices in intermediate downtrends

Rupee trims gains on oil buying, stocks
'Biocon is world's 7th biggest BT company'
Punj Lloyd gets $42 m order in Libya
Nifty may hit 4400 by this Thursday




Source:ET,Sify

Todays Headlines

US govt announces $85 bn loan to save AIG
History of Lehman I Credit crisis: A subprimer
Barclays agrees to buy some Lehman assets: Source
US stocks end higher after Fed keeps rates unchanged
The Great Crash of 1929, and lessons taming the crisis of 2008

US FDA blocks imports from Ranbaxy for poor quality
Emami doubles open offer price for Zandu
AIG's shares plunge AIG too big to fail: Analysts AIG fact file
Experts speak on financial crisis Anatomy of credit crisis
Rising dollar to make your cell dearer
US crisis makes Satyam look East

Fed holds key rates steady
Morgan Stanley Q3 profit falls 3%
Can Chrysler survive US slump?
Reliance Infra eyes India steel plant - official
TCS, Wipro recast hiring plans

Welspun India to demerge divisions into separate cos
RBI may hike key rates again, says Dun & Bradstreet
Edelweiss Securities maintains baccumulateb rating on ITC
Kotak Securities maintain bbuybon Infosys Technologies
IRDA seeks status report from Tata, AIG

Indian IT majors turn cautious post Lehman, Merrill fall out
RBI steps in to cool financial markets
Fuel price cut only when oil at $67: Deora
RNRL may lead ADAG's new forays
ONGC to enter solar energy business

ADB lowers India's economic growth forecast to 7.4 per cent
Indian banks’ Lehman exposure negligible
RBI moves in to ease pressure on markets
Reliance Infra hopes for EPC contracts in nuclear energy
Value of AIG’s India mutual funds falls by 7%
250 stocks hit new year lows on NSE
---------------------------------------------
Other Stk,Mkt reports from Deadpresident

Economy, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation, HCL Techno...
IDBI HDFC ONGC
Banking shares recover
Rupee falls to nearly 47
Nifty September 2008 futures at premium
Asian Markets End Sharply Lower
Futures and Options - Sep 16 2008

Triveni Industries
Post Session Commentary - Sep 16 2008
Bank shares lead intra-day rebound; Fed in focus
AIG - India Holdings
More jitters for the market

Gold Ends Higher In Volatile Session
Daily Technicals - Sep 16 2008
Morgan Stanley - next ?
Lehman invested in DLF, Unitech
Futures and Options - Sep 15 2008
Goldman Sachs - India Holdings
Once in a Century Crisis - Greenspan
Oil's great crash
Monthly Economic Review
India Infrastructure
Weekly Technicals - Sep 16 2008
Nestle
Lehman India sell off

India Economy, Cairn India, Hindustan Unilever, He...
Sintex Industries, Everest Kanto, Nitin Fire Prote...
Warren Buffet - 10 ways to get rich
India GSM Subscriber Figures
Nagarjuna Construction Ltd

Lehman Brothers - India Holdings
Dalal Street catches cold as US sneezes
Infosys Technologies
Lehman Brothers - Holdings in India

Source:ET,BS,BL, deadpresident blog.

Why Lehman went bust and what it means for you

Why Lehman went bust & what it means for you

Lehman Brothers is no more. Merrill Lynch has gone down the Bank of America maw. AIG too could go belly up. With a doubt, these developments in America are the most shocking events to have hit global financial markets. So where did it all begin? And what does it mean for the Indian stock markets? Find out. . .
What is (or was) Lehman Brothers?
America's fourth-largest investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc has filed the biggest bankruptcy petition known to mankind.
The 158-year-old firm was founded by brothers Henry, Emanuel and Mayer Lehman, Jewish immigrants to the US from Germany, in 1850. Henry set up a general store in Alabama in 1844 and was later joined by his brothers. In 1850 they set up the merchant bank in New York after having made money in railway bonds. So what went wrong?

Lehman Bros, which till June 2008 had not reported a quarterly loss even once, had earlier survived many an economic crises, like railroad bankruptcies of the 1800s, the Great Depression in the 1930s, and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in the 1990s.
Thus the collapse of the giant investment bank came as a major shock for the entire world markets that plunged after Lehman filed a Chapter 11 petition with US Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.
The $613 billion (some estimates put the size at $639 billion) bankruptcy thus throws up the question: why did the Wall Street giant go bust? Here's why. . .

Why did Lehman Brothers go bankrupt?
The giant investment bank succumbed to the sub-prime mortgage crisis that has rocked the United States and the global economy. Lehman was strangled by a massive credit crisis and fast plummeting real estate prices.
The gargantuan $60 billion loss in bad real estate loans forced the bank to file for bankruptcy.
However, the fall of the 158-year-year institution that started cotton trade in US before the American Civil War and financed the railroad that built a nation, got hit by a large dose of bad luck, pride, arrogance and greed. Primarily, the pride of its chief executive office Richard Fuld.
But there were more reason. Check out what they were. . .

For full details:Why Lehman went bust & what it means for you
------------------------------------------------
Lehman falls, Merrill sold, AIG tottering. What next?

series of events in United States, including Bank of America agreeing to buy Merrill Lynch for $44 billion and Lehman Brothers' move to file a bankruptcy protection, has shaken up the global financial markets.
About 10 major banks, comprising Citigroup and Credit Suisse Group, reached an agreement to create a $70 billion borrowing facility committing their own money, which could be used to tide over the financial crisis.
Lehman Brothers thought of bankruptcy after it failed to find a buyer and financial media reports said that AIG could survive for only a few days without infusion of the capital.
The giants of financial markets have been shaken up by losses of hundreds of billions of dollars in bad mortgages in the housing markets.
Lehman Brothers began considering bankruptcy after Barclays and Bank of America, the top suitors, walked away apparently following Federal authorities declining to provide financial backup to them, declaring bankruptcy would allow Lehman's subsidiaries to continue to function as the company itself is wound down.
"The stunning series of events culminated a weekend of frantic around-the-clock negotiations, as Wall Street bankers huddled in meetings at the behest of Bush administration officials to try to avoid a downward spiral in the markets stemming from a crisis of confidence," the New York Times said.

Though the Federal Reserve steered clear of bailout of Lehman, the Wall Street Journal said it is expected to take new steps to stabilise the broader financial system.
These steps, expected to be temporary, would make it easier for banks and securities firms to borrow from the central bank by using a wider range of collateral.
Bankers say these financial institutions might need short-term funds as they unwind their many trading positions with Lehman.
Merrill has some 60,000 employees and Lehman 25,000. It was not clear how the moves would affect them. AIG executives were reported to be trying to raise funds by selling assets or infusion of capital from private equity firms.
But late Sunday night, the New York Times reported quoting a person briefed on the matter that the insurance giant was seeking a $40 billion bridge loan from the Federal Reserve as a potential downgrade of its credit rating could spell doom.
Ratings agencies threatened to downgrade the insurance giant's credit rating by Monday morning, allowing counter-parties to withdraw capital from their contracts with the company, the paper said.

more @ http://specials.rediff.com/money/2008/sep/15slide2.htm

Source:Rediff.com

Nifty ends 5-day losing streak; RIL, SBI, HDFC Bk surge

Sensex won't see old highs for 2-3 yrs: Shankar Sharma

Shankar Sharma, VC and Joint MD of First Global rues that the bull market will not be back in a hurry and does not see the Sensex re-conquering its previous highs in the next two or three years. He estimates a moderate downside and sees the Sensex falling to the 10000-11000 levels. He also sees no recovery of a number of stocks on the Index to its previous highs. He feels the international financial crisis is not over and there are still a few struggling names in Europe and the US. He said he has no sympathy for investors of investment banks all over the world. He said that the rupee is intrinsically weak and would add to the concern of capital outflows.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Shankar Sharma:
Sensex won't see old highs for 2-3 yrs: Shankar Sharma

------------------------------------------------
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/economy/how-much-advance-tax-have-cos-paid-for-sept-quarter/19/15/356376

Sources said Tata Steel has paid Rs 300 crore as compared to Rs 350 crore, year-on-year. Tata Motors paid Rs 75 crore as against Rs 190 crore YoY, while Tata Consultancy Services paid Rs 115 crore versus Rs 20 crore YoY.

Among banking companies, Bank of India paid Rs 191 crore as compared to Rs 150 crore YoY, sources said. Union Bank paid Rs 130 crore as against Rs 100 crore YoY, while ICICI Bank paid Rs 250 crore versus Rs 185 crore YoY.

Mahindra & Mahindra paid Rs 116 crore as compared to Rs 83 crore YoY, while L&T paid Rs 170 crore versus Rs 80 crore YoY, sources added.

State Bank of India, or SBI, has paid Rs 1,560 crore as advance tax for the September quarter as against Rs 1,060 crore year-on-year, reports CNBC-TV18, quoting sources. Videocon paid Rs 25 crore as against Rs 20 crore YoY. HDFC and Reliance Industries paid Rs 290 crore and Rs 680 crore respectively for the September quarter. RIL had paid Rs 650 crore in the same period last year.

CNBC-TV18 Disclaimer:This information is source-based and has not been provided to the stock exchanges.
----------------------------------------------
Sensex ends down 12pts, SBI gains 6%
Nifty ends 5-day losing streak; RIL, SBI, HDFC Bk surge
ICICI Bank UK holds Lehman bonds
Advance tax nos not correlated with profitablity: Macquarie
US stocks extend slide on AIG worries

Finacial crisis: World Central banks pump $300 bn
Rupee posts biggest fall in a decade
Fed set to hold rates steady, may signal cuts
Goldman Sachs Q3 net plunges 70%
The journey of Lehman Brothers

Cause of Lehman bankruptcy Fallout threatens recession
Fate of 2,500 employees? Souvenirs command premium
Rel Cap to invest in insurance
Special: Pink slips back at IT cos
London stock mkt slides to 3-year low

Re falls to weakest since July 2006
ICICI Bank has Rs 375-cr exposure in Lehman Brothers
R-Cap to invest Rs 2,000 cr in insurance biz in next 3-5 yrs
Rel Infra eyes Rs 15,000 crore share in PSU steel projects
Short covering, value buying aid market recovery

Source:ET, BS,BL, UTVi

India Inc pays higher advance tax for Q2FY09, Dow Slides below 11k

India Inc pays higher advance tax

India Inc has payed higher advance tax for the second quarter ending September 30, 2008, according to data available with UTVi.
State Bank of India (SBI) has paid advance tax of Rs 1,560 crore when compared with Rs 1,054 crore paid for the quarter ended September 30, 2007.
Reliance has paid Rs 680-690 crore as against Rs 650 crore paid in September 2007. While ICICI Bank has paid Rs 575 crore vs Rs 450 crore in the year-ago period, HDFC has paid Rs 290 crore. Videcon has paid Rs 25 crore vs Rs 20 crore in September 2007.

Advance Tax Nos. (Rs in cr)
Sept 2008 Sept 2007
RIL 683 650
ICICI Bank 575 450
SBI 1560 1050
HDFC 290 180 - 200
Ambuja Cements 175 200
IDBI 20 3
Videocon 25 20
IPCA 3.74 3.29
Wockhardt 2.5 10
Reliance Capital 12 Not Available
Deepak Fertilisers 20 Not Available
SIDBI 90 Not Available
ECGC 90 Not Available
------------------------------------------------------
Dow slides +4%, ends below 11,000

NEW YORK: Stocks took a late day turn for the worse on Monday, with the Dow's loss ballooning to nearly 500 points, amid increased fear about a collapse of AIG and the stability of the US financial system.In the final minutes of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below the key 11000 mark and the S&P 500 dropped below 1200.The Dow ended down 504.48 points, or 4.42%, at 10,917.51. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ended down 58.17 points, or 4.65%, at 1,193.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 81.36 points, or 3.60%, at 2,179.91.Following Lehman Brothers bankruptcy filing, attention turned to American International Group, once the world's largest insurer, whose stock fell more than 53% on concern that it may need to raise capital to cover mortgage-related losses.That pushed shares of financial services companies down sharply, deepening the decline in the three major indices.Updated at 2010 hrs (IST): Stocks slid on Monday as the bankruptcy filing by investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc and cascading fears about the stability of other major financial institutions spooked global markets.Shares of financial services companies, including insurer American International Group, led the slide amid mounting fears about the impact of the year-long credit crisis on the economy and the profit outlook.AIG, an insurer, and savings and loan company Washington Mutual are among other major companies investors fear are threatened by the credit maelstrom and may have to step up efforts to raise capital to shore up their balance sheets.
The concerns about the stability of other firms followed the US government's decision not to provide guarantees for any deal to help Lehman avert bankruptcy."Investors are uncertain about what it means for the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve to have drawn the line in the sand now and reintroduced the concept of moral hazard," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist, at Federated Investors in New York. "Those who have said we're at the bottom a thousand points ago are probably smoking dope."AIG shares tumbled 42% to $7 on the New York Stock Exchange, while those of Lehman plummeted 94% to 22 cents in composite trading. Washington Mutual dropped 13.9% to $2.35.Dow Jones industrial average fell 299.22 points (2.62%) to 11,122.77. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 40.18 points (1.78%) to 2,221.09.Merrill shares climbed 27.6% to $21.75, but Bank of America shares dropped 13.9% to $29.05.

Dow Jones slides by over 500 points; worst since 9/11
Asian stock markets plunge after Wall Street falls
Lehman fall may deepen Indian realtors' credit woes
Lehman fallout threatens deeper, wider recession
Credit crisis to hit India Inc's fund raising
Lehman CEO's overconfidence may have led to bankruptcy
Credit crunch: IIT, IIM placements face big hit


AIG struggles to survive financial tsunami
Major financial crises Expert Speak on Financial crisis
Fed may cut key rates BoA-Merrill may flex its muscles
TCS, Wipro recast hiring plans
Oil falls to 7th-month low at $93
'It’s panic sale, expect bounceback'
Wall St seen losing 30,000 jobs

Lehman, Merrill staffs' future dark
Moody’s, Fitch slash Lehman ratings
Global events to haunt D-Street
Merrill prunes its stake in blue chips
Wall St model shattered by crisis
What next for Indian stock market?
Japan PM, ministers to discuss Lehman fallout

Spirce:UTVi, BL, ET

Lehman effect: Indian cos lose Rs 2K-cr

Lehman effect: Indian cos lose Rs 2K-cr
Lehman-invested Indian firms lose over Rs 2,000 cr

Lehman Brothers' move to file for bankruptcy today wiped off more than Rs 2,000 crore from the market valuation of those Indian companies in which the US financial major has made equity investments. Lehman itself recorded a loss of more than Rs 50 crore today on its investments in India, which is nearly 10 per cent of its current holding worth an estimated over Rs 500 crore. The loss would have been much higher if Lehman had not started offloading its equity holding in Indian companies late last month. In a major selling spree that started on August 21, Lehman has sold shares worth close to Rs 400 crore in nearly 10 companies, including NIIT Ltd, Cranes Software, Amtek Auto, Amtek India, Fedders Llyod, Northgate, Mastek, Triveni Engg and Prajay Engg.

Prior to this sell-off, Lehman's Indian equity portfolio is estimated to have been worth more than Rs 1,000 crore, which has now nearly halved to about Rs 500 crore. Most of the shares offloaded by Lehman in India, including those in NIIT, Cranes, Amtek Auto, Amtek India and Northgate, has been purchased by Deutsche Bank, according to the bulk and block deal data available with the bourses. Besides the 10 companies where Lehman has offloaded its shares, Lehman had equity holding in about two dozen firms at the end of June quarter. These firms include Spice Communications, Spice Mobile, Anant Raj Industries, Edelweiss Cap, IVRCL Infra, Tulip Telecom, Consolidated Construction, PSL, Orbit Corp, Development Credit Bank, Champagne Indage, Godawari Power, KPIT Cummins, West Coast Paper, IOL Netcom, Dhampur Sugar, Prithvi Info, Golden Tobacco, Emkay Global, Vijay Shanti Builders and Pioneer Embroidery.

Source:ET,BL

Mkt,Biz Headlines

Stocks end sharply lower
Reliance ADAG eyes steel foray; lines up Rs 40,000 cr for Jharkhand plant
BoA sees India growth opportunities
Thousands lose jobs in UK as Lehman Brothers collapses
Rupee hits 2-year lows as stocks fall weighs

Satyam Computers to axe 4,500 employees
Financial turmoil: AIG looks at liquidating assets
Rel Infra eyes share in PSU projects
Oil prices plunge to $92.11 a barrel
AIG shares fall 52 pc, debt costs jump

India Inc's crorepati directors' list gets bigger
Lehman-invested Indian firms lose over Rs 2,000 cr
PowerGrid to buy 26% in IL&FS power SPV
Dr Reddy's eyes brand buys in US
Reliance Comm adds 1.75 mn users in Aug

Sensex forms bearish head and shoulder pattern
Merrill Lynch reiterats its 'underperform' rating on M&M
BNP Paribas assigns 'reduce' rating to Reliance Power
Edelweiss maintains 'accumulate' rating on Amtek Auto

HSBC assigns 'overweight' rating to Dabur India
Citigroup recommends 'buy' on Everest Kanto Cylinder
Morgan Stanley downgrads Arvind to 'equal-weight'
PINC puts buy on Cosmo Films; target Rs 125

Rupee ends at 45.95/96
Lehman to file for bankruptcy; BankAm buys Merrill
Maha govt asks Reliance to increase compensation package
Post-waiver, power output at N-plants may double

Sensex down 469 points on heavy sell-off
Lehman to file for bankruptcy, subsidiaries kept out
Bank of America to buy Merrill Lynch
Inflation to come down to 10% by December: Rangarajan
Emami sweetens open offer for Zandu
Bharti Airtel to foray into IT

Source: ET,BL,BS etc

Sensex fell 470 pts on Lehman worries

Stocks Review: US financial worries weigh on equities

Lehman Bros files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Investor sentiment was marred Monday on worries about the health of the US financial sector after Lehman Brothers became the latest casualty to the mortgage crisis fallout, Merrill agreed to be taken over by Bank of America for $50 billion and troubled insurer American International Group asked the Fed for a lifeline. With Lehman and Merrill Lynch out of the picture, three of the top five US investment banks have effectively departed the scene in less than six months. Bear Stearns was acquired in a fire sale by JPMorgan in March.

"We are witnessing a turning point in the modern history of the financial system, as three major brokers have now disappeared from the scene. The coming days and weeks will be crucial to the global economic outlook," said Anita Gandhi, head-institutional business at Arihant Capital. Stock markets in Australia, Singapore and Taiwan fell by around 2 to 4 percent, with shares of many banks suffering bigger losses. Holidays in most major Asian markets, including Tokyo and Hong Kong, kept volumes thin. The gloom across global markets took its toll on Indian bourses as well, which plunged over 6 per cent intra-day as investors braced for more FII outflows. However, the market recovered lost ground towards the fag end of the session on the back of short covering in battered index heavyweights.

Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex settled at 13,531.27, down 469.54 points or 3.35 per cent, recovering from the day's low of 13,150.81. The index opened at 13,666.28. National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended 3.68 per cent or 155.55 points at 4072.90. The index fell to a low of 3955.40 earlier in the day.

"The mood is pessimistic than ever before; even insurance companies that generally come to support the market at times of distress, are not on the buy side. Lehman's exposure in heavyweights like DLF and Unitech sent the BSE Realty Index on a downward spiral," Gandhi added. The selling spree sent the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices down 4.49 per cent and 4.93 per cent respectively. After remaining in the negative terrain for most of the day, Maruti Suzuki (2.8%), HDFC (1.16%), and ACC (0.61%) managed to eke out decent gains.

Reliance Infrastructure (-9.72%), Satyam Computer (-9.45%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (-7.6%), DLF (-7.54%) and ONGC (-6 .01%) were under pressure. While the fate of the US financial system loomed in investors' minds around the world, initial reports that Hurricane Ike had not severely damaged infrastructure in Texas knocked benchmark oil prices below $100 a barrel. Oil tumbled 6 per cent to $94.83 although traders were cautious as they awaited status reports on more Texas refineries. The financial turmoil halted US dollar's rise against other currencies, however, there was no respite for the Indian rupee. The Indian currency was down 46.04/05, down 32 paise against the US dollar.

-----------------------------------------------

Financial powerhouse collapses
World banks act to calm Lehman storm Lehman files for bankruptcy Wall Street jolted BoA buys Merrill

Rupee hits 2-yr lows as stocks fall weighs

Sensex nosedives

Rupee hits 2-year lows as stocks fall weighs
Bank of America to buy Merrill for $50 bn

Lehman effect: Indian cos lose over Rs 2K-cr

Financial turmoil: AIG looks at liquidating assets

Other stories in this section
Financial woes rattle investor confidence; call buying at 4000 holds Nifty
Stocks end sharply lower on US financial woes
Sensex provisionally closes 517.46 points down at 13,483.35
Indices pare losses; Sensex down 500 points
Global markets crash fearing credit crisis to worsen

Sensex ends 470 pts down despite a strong recovery

09:49 - US financial woes thrash markets; Nifty ends below 4100
04:47 - AIG to announce restructuring plans on Tuesday
08:52 - BoA buys Merrill Lynch in $50bn all-stock deal
10:39 - Lehman bankruptcy: FIIs react

Source:ET, Sify,MC etc

Sensex is at a crucial level, Investor Guide frm ET

Sensex is currently at a crucial level

The Sensex, after recording its all-time high of 21206 points in January 2008, has been trading lower. The broader trend has turned negative, as the long-term upward bias channelled trend for the index has been breached in January 2008. Since the index has been trading below the channel trend line and continues to form lower highs and lower lows.

The bear phase that began in January 2008 would remain intact for minimum 18 months, which is the one-third of the time period taken by the Sensex bull rally which began in May 2003 and ended in January 2008 (lasted for 56 months of time period). Hence, the bear phase would continue to last for a minimum of 10 months more i.e. up to July 2009. However, it remains to be seen whether the recent low of 12514 formed in July 2008 would remain intact, as the bottom for the current bear phase, or if the Sensex would form a new low below 12514.

Sensex’s downward move from its all-time high of 21206 on the weekly chart is channelled and continues to from lower highs and lower lows, indicating the continuation of the bear phase. As long as the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows and moves within the channel, it is most likely to slip below its recent low of 12514 to form a new low. During the current downtrend, we have so far witnessed three rallies and each rally has been of minimum 3000 points and the fall, following the rally, has been of minimum 5000 points.

The Sensex opened with a bullish gap during the week and recorded a high of 15107 on Monday, rising by 624 points intra-day. However, it failed to hold on to its initial gains and corrected subsequently to end the week negative by 483 points. The Sensex has given a close at 14000 levels, which is very crucial. The rise from 12514 recorded in July 2008 till date has formed a NeoWave “Extracting Triangle” pattern or a “Head and Shoulder” pattern. Trading below 14000 levels for two consecutive days would confirm the bearish breakout of the pattern, under this scenario the Sensex could move down to 13727-13505 points. Any pull-back would get resisted at the neckline whose value for the current week is placed at 14215. Above this level, the next resistance is placed at 14523, which is due to the weekly channel resistance trend line. At higher levels, the Sensex move above 15579 level would negate the negative outlook for the index, in which case fresh buying can be suggested. Until then, stay away from the market.

-----------------------------------------------
Week Ahead: Poised for downside breakout
The market weakened noticeably in another lacklustre week. The Nifty found support at 4,200 on Friday to close at 4,228.45 points for a loss of 2.85 per cent. The Sensex was down 3.33 per cent at 14,000.81. The Defty lost 4.94 per cent as the rupee slid sharply.

The overall breadth perspective was extremely negative. Advances were far outnumbered by declines. The Junior lost 3.67 per cent and the BSE 500 lost 3.3 per cent. Volumes were low except on Friday where there was massive selling. The FIIs were large and consistent net sellers and the domestic institutions were also net sellers.

Outlook: The market may be poised for a downside breakout. It has already tested a key support at 4,200. If it closes below 4,180, a drop till the 3,950 level is very likely though there is plenty of interim support between 3,950-4,150.

Rationale: An intermediate uptrend started at the low of 3,790 in mid-July and after eight weeks, the trend could well be reversing. The past two weeks have seen tightly rangebound trading on low volumes.

On Friday, the lower end of that range was tested with volume expansion. If there's a breakout (close below 4,179) the downside would be at least 3,950 and maybe, lower. A pessimist would project a low between 3,700-3,800.

Counter-view: Despite the selling pressure, the support at 4,200 did hold. It is possible that the index will continue to range trade. However it seems unlikely and a sharp recovery seems impossible unless there's a big volume expansion and reversal of institutional attitude.

Bulls & bears: There were almost no bulls to speak of. The big losses came in the IT sector and in realty and banks. In one sense, the CNXIT's loss of 3.07 per cent was surprising since the rupee dropped. Most of the losses came on Friday when bellwether Infy dropped 6 per cent and every IT major lost ground.

The selloffs in banking and realty were less paradoxical. The Bank Nifty lost 1.5 per cent and is very likely to lose more next week. All key banking and financial stocks look bearish but the PSUs such as PNB and BoB may hold ground better.

Realty seems to have a 3-week sell cycle and is not likely to recover until short-covering comes in near settlement. Metals saw selling through the week but a recovery of sorts was noticeable on Friday as Sail and Nalco stabilised and the bearish momentum in Tata Steel eased.

Apart from these, pivotals like Reliance Industries and Reliance Infra were also bearish. On the buyside, Airtel is one of the few heavyweights that could move against the tide.
Hind Unilever, BHEL and NTPC may also hold their ground. New listing Austral is still getting high volumes as well though it is much too early to take a technical call.

MICRO TECHNICALS
AirtelCurrent Price: Rs 778.85Target Price: Rs 810
The stock dropped to a low of Rs 745 from a September high of Rs 848 before it started to firm up on Friday. It has the potential to climb till Rs 810 at least on an intra-day basis. Keep a stop at Rs 770 and go long. Be prepared for an intra-day swing of around Rs 50-60. Book profits above Rs 805.

Bhel Current Price: Rs 1,698Target Price: Rs 1,735
The stock has made a sharp recovery from Rs 1,660. It has potential to rise till around Rs 1,735. Keep a stop at Rs 1,690 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 1,725 because higher prices may not be sustainable except on an intra-day basis.

Reliance Capital Current Price: Rs 1,210.20Target Price: Rs 1,050
The stock is testing a key support and if it closes below Rs 1,200, it will have a downside target of Rs 1,050. There is some interim support at Rs 1,125. Keep a stop at Rs 1,225 and go short. Book a partial profit at Rs 1,125 and hold the rest of the position down to Rs 1,050.

Reliance IndustriesCurrent Price: Rs 1,932Target Price: Rs 1,750
The stock has made a downside breakout with a sharp volume expansion. The target projection from the charts suggests that a target of Rs 1,650 is possible. However, RIL is already close to its 2008 low and those projections may be wildly inaccurate. A conservative target is Rs 1,750. Keep a sliding stop at Rs 1,970 and go short. Move the stop down by Rs 20 for every 20 point move in the stock. Book profits at Rs 1,750.

Tata Steel Current Price: Rs 523.65Target Price: NA
The stock is at its 2008 low. It made the downside breakout by closing below Rs 590 in early September and then it broke Rs 560, which was the next support. The downside target could be Rs 520 or Rs 490 depending on the strength of the current support. The upside would be Rs 560 on a bounce with some resistance at Rs 540. A long position with a stop at Rs 515 looks the best chance. Book some profit at Rs 540 and cash out above Rs 555.

-------------------------------------------------
Investor's Guide
Technical Analysis: Bull market?
Best stock picks in the Services sector
SMR warns of meltdown
Divide your portfolio Long term plan: Fortis, Solar Explosives
Proper risk & money management important for profitable trading

What Freddie-Fannie bailout means for Asia? 15 Sep, 2008, 0531 hrs IST
US home buyers haven’t been the only ones counting on the supposed reliability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Great Offshore & Varun Shipping best bets in shipping sector 15 Sep, 2008, 0528 hrs IST, Karan Sehgal
The only ray of hope in the shipping sector comes from investments in offshore supply vessels. Great Offshore and Varun Shipping are the best bets in this space.

Analysts' picks: M&M, Dabur, R-Power,Citigroup, Amtek & Arvind 15 Sep, 2008, 0458 hrs IST
Analysts' picks: M&M, Dabur, R-Power,Citigroup, Amtek & Arvind

Greenply Industries stocks looks promising 15 Sep, 2008, 0449 hrs IST, Amit Jain
Greenply Industries is set to put up a good show in FY10 as one of its units will go on stream in July-August ’09.The stock looks promising for investors with a horizon of 12-18 months

Tata Steel to become even bigger in future: CFO 15 Sep, 2008, 0429 hrs IST, SANTANU MISHRA AND KRISHNA KANT
Tata Steel Group CFO Koushik Chatterjee shares his vision of the company becoming even bigger in future

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