Global woes drown better IIP nos, Sensex loses 303 pts

Global woes drown better IIP nos, Sensex loses 303 pts Sensex ends 303 pts down after a choppy ride

The market ended the way it had opened this morning - on a negative note - but there were a few smart rallies from lower levels during the course of the session today. While the first rebound happened on the back of some strong buying in IT and telecom stocks, the second rally was triggered by better than expected IIP numbers for the month of September. IT, power, capital goods stocks spearheaded the rally this time.
Why are the markets so volatile? Arun Kejriwal replies
However, both these rallies fizzled out soon as investors remained concerned about the consequences of a deep and prolonged global recession and chose to lighten commitments at higher levels. The market saw yet another recovery after that fall, but went down with great force in mid afternoon trade. Though it never really recovered from that setback thereafter, the market did trim down its loss to an extent thanks to some strong buying at lower levels in a few front line stocks.
Global meltdown and stock market
The Sensex, which crashed to a low of 9376.73 from its early afternoon high of 9928.60, ended the session at 9536.33 with a huge loss of 303.36 points or 3.08%. The Nifty closed with a loss of 90.20 points or 3.07% at 2848.45, over 50 points off a day's low of 2794.95. It touched a high of 2975.20 in early afternoon trade today.
Stockometer
Realty stocks went down sharply on sustained selling pressure. Mirroring the sharp fall in prices of key stocks in the sector, the BSE Realty index ended lower by as much as 7.34%. The Bankex fell 4.38% today. BSE Metal (down 3.67%), CG (down 3.63%), Power (down 3.03%), Oil & Gas (down 2.96%), Auto (down 2.59%), PSU (down 2.33%), FMCG (down 2.26%) and CD (down 2.25%) also ended sharply lower. The Healthcare and Teck indices eased by around 1.4% while the IT index, which suffered the least damage, closed with a marginal loss.
Top gainers
IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (1.05%) and Infosys Technologies (0.3%) were the only gainers from the Sensex. Among Nifty stocks, BPCL (3.05%), Tata Communications (2.35%) and Punjab National Bank (2.05%) closed with impressive gains. Hero Honda and HCL Technologies also ended on a positive note.
Worst losers
Jaiprakash Associates drifted down by over 9%. DLF lost 8.6%. ICICI Bank closed with a sharp loss of 8.35%. Reliance Infrastructure slipped by around 6.5%. Hindalco eased by 5.75% to Rs 56.55. Hindustan Unilever, Sterlite Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Tata Motors, ONGC and Tata Steel ended lower by 3% - 5%.
ACC, Tata Power, Ranbaxy Laboratories, BHEL, Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Communications, Satyam Computer Services, HDFC Bank, HDFC and ITC lost 1% - 3%. Grasim Industries and NTPC closed with modest losses while Wipro ended with a slender loss.
SAIL, Zee Entertainment, ABB, Reliance Power, Power Grid Corporation, Cairn India, Suzlon Energy, Idea Cellular, Unitech, GAIL India, Cipla, Reliance Petroleum and Nalco were among the major losers in the Nifty index.
Realty stocks India Bulls Real Estate, Anant Raj Industries, Penland, Ansal Infrastructure, HDIL, Sobha Developers, Parsvnath Developers, Orbit Corporation and Omaxe ended with sharp losses today.
Bank stocks Axis Bank, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank, Federal Bank, Allahabad Bank, IDBI Bank and J&K Bank declined sharply on selling pressure.
Thermax, Crompton Greaves, Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, Gammon India, Jyoti Structure, Usha Martin, Alstom Projects, Elecon Engineering, Bharat Bijli, Kalpataru Power Transmission, Areva, Praj Industries, Bharat Earth Movers, Havells India, Punj Lloyd and SKF India were among the prominent losers in the capital goods index.
Tata Teleservices, Max India, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Indian Oil Corporation, Phoenix Mills, Indian Hotels, Nagarjuna Construction Company, Sesa Goa, Colgate Palmolive, OnMobile Global, MphasiS and Tata Chemicals posted smart gains.
As several midcap and smallcap stocks also declined sharply today, the market breadth was very weak. Out of 2595 stocks traded on BSE, 1701 stocks closed in the negative territory. 818 stocks posted gains and 76 stocks ended flat.
The volume on the bourses were on the higher side today. On the National Stock Exchange, the turnover, at Rs 10,200.74 crore, was far higher than a turnover of Rs 8,821.63 crore the exchange had recorded in the previous session.


Source:SIfy,ET

Sensex vaults 572 pts

Sensex vaults 572 pts

The market opened with big positive gap on strong global sentiment, gained in strength as the session progressed and signed off on a buoyant note today. The bulls proved so relentless that the market never lost its momentum till the very end.

Global meltdown and stock market

As the market had one of its best sessions in recent weeks, the Sensex romped home with a huge gain of 571.87 points or 5.74% today. The barometer, which opened with a positive gap of around 190 points at 10,154.56 and hit a high of 10,570.58 in intra-day trades, settled at 10,536.16. The National Stock Exchange's 50 stock Nifty index closed at 3148.25, a few points down from a high of 3161.25, netting a big gain of 175.25 points or 5.89%.

Stockometer
The massive revival package announced by the Chinese government buoyed up Asian markets, which in turn set a strong platform for the bulls to go on a buying spree today. And things only got better in afternoon trade as the firm start on the European bourses kept the mood upbeat.
Top gainers
International Monetary Fund and some leading rating agencies have forecast a lower growth for the economy in fiscal 2009. However, shrugging off inhibition, participants formed a beeline for stocks cutting across sectors, and, for a change, refrained from lightening commitments even at higher levels.
Worst losers
Metal stocks were on song today. Power, capital goods, oil and bank stocks had a nice ride up the charts. Information technology and realty stocks lost their way after a bright start but bounced back strongly in afternoon trade to end on a high note.

Pharma, consumer durables, telecom and auto stocks also recorded handsome gains. FMCG stocks remained subdued right through the session. Besides a host of large cap stocks, several midcap and smallcap stocks too recorded impressive gains today.

Buying was so widespread that only two stocks, ITC (down 1.35%) and Maruti Suzuki (down 0.25%), among the Sensex components failed to end on a positive note today. Among Nifty stocks, BPCL, Suzlon Energy and Tata Communications closed on a negative note.

Sterlite Industries, Tata Steel and Hindalco, the metal stocks in the Sensex, ended with handsome gains. While Sterlite Industries and Tata Steel closed stronger by 13.45% and 12.85% respectively, Hindalco moved up by 10.5%.

Tata Power vaulted nearly 12% to Rs 825.05. Reliance Infrastructure (10.95%), Jaiprakash Associates (10.25%), ICICI Bank (9.25%), Bharti Airtel (9.15%), ONGC (8.65%), BHEL (7.7%), NTPC (7.3%) and index heavyweight Reliance Industries (7%) ended with big gains.
Tata Motors, Satyam Computer Services, DLF, Ranbaxy Laboratories and Infosys Technologies gained 6% - 7%. Larsen & Toubro, (5.95%), Grasim Industries (5.85%), HDFC (4.35%), Mahindra & Mahindra (4.3%), State Bank of India (4.2%), ACC (3.95%), Tata Consultancy Services (3.85%), Wipro (3.5%) and Reliance Communications (3.2%) also finished with strong gains. HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever closed with modest gains.

Nifty stocks Nalco, Cairn India and Unitech surged 11% - 12%. Idea Cellular, ABB, Siemens, Ambuja Cements and Cipla gained 7.5% - 10%. SAIL, Reliance Power, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Reliance Petroleum, HCL Technologies, Power Grid Corporation, Zee Entertainment, Punjab National Bank and GAIL India ended with sharp gains. Hero Honda edged up marginally.
Deccan Chronicle Holdings, Bombay Dyeing, NMDC, Praj Industries, GMR Infrastructure, Jindal Steel, GVK Power, Hindustan Zinc, Century Textiles, Torrent Power, Pantaloon Retail, Tata Teleservices, Chambal Fertilizers, Glenmark Pharma, IVRCL Infrastructure, Bharat Forge, Aurobindo Pharma, Arvind Mills, Everonn Systems, Varun Shipping, Simplex Infrastructure, Hindustan Oil Exploration, FSL, Aptech, UTV Software, LIC Housing Finance, Patel Engineering, Alstom Projects, KEC International, Phoenix Mills and KLG Systems were some of the big gainers today.

The market breadth was pretty strong today. Out of 2622 stocks traded on BSE, 1694 stocks closed on a positive note. 855 stocks posted losses and 73 stocks ended flat.
-------------------------------------------------
Sensex ends up 5% on China plan

Equities surged on Monday to close sharply higher after China announced a financial package of 4 trillion yuan or $586 billion to tackle the menace of recession and boost growth. This had a positive impact on Asian stock markets. Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and Nikkei zoomed on expectations that the move may lessen the global slowdown pressure. Indian equities too opened higher in line with Asian peers led by gains in shares of metal, power and capital goods stocks. Positive opening of European stocks took the market to higher levels.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 10,536.16, up 571.87 points or 5.74 per cent. The 30-share index touched an intra-day high of 10570.58 and low of 10095.90. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 3148.25, up 5.89 per cent or 175.25 points. The broader index hit a high of 3161.25 after opening at 2973.30.

All the sectoral indices ended with significant gains. BSE Metal Index surged 10.92 per cent, BSE Power Index climbed 7.84 per cent, BSE Oil&gas Index moved 6.11 per cent higher. However, second rung stocks underperformed the benchmarks. BSE Midcap Index closed 3.57 per cent up and BSE Smallcap Index ended 2.25 per cent higher. Sterlite Industries, up 13.43 per cent, was the standout performer in Monday’s trade. Tata Steel (12.81%), Tata Power (11.89%), Reliance Infrastructure (10.93%), Hindalco Industries (10.5%) and Bharti Airtel (9.13%) were the other gainers in the 30-share index. “There has been a sharp fall in stock prices of most metal companies and the market capitalisation of a stock like Sterlite Industries has fallen so sharply that the sum-of-parts valuation makes the scrip very attractive. It could be attractive opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate the stock at current levels,” a senior analyst of a foreign brokerage said. ITC (-1.37%) and Maruti Suzuki (-0.27%) ended with marginal losses. Market breadth was extremely positive with 1,696 advances against 853 declines on BSE. In Europe FTSE 100 was up 3.46 per cent, CAC 40 jumped 3.65 per cent and DAX moved 3.74 per cent higher. US markets are also likely to open higher. Dow Jones futures were up 2.09 per cent, S&P 500 stocks futures moved 2.45 per cent up and Nasdaq futures inched 2.46 per cent higher. However, Sarvendra Srivastava, head of technical research, Sharekhan, had a word of caution. “We are expecting some correction from 10,600-10,700 levels. Though the medium-term trend is up, in the short-term we may retrace to 10,000 as a test of strength,” he said.

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Glenmark Pharma
Sensex up 571 pts, closes at 10,536.16
BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 10 2008
NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 10 2008
RIL, metal shares lead a near 6% Sensex surge
Post Session Commentary - Nov 10 2008
Unabated rally
Daily Call - Nov 10 2008
Pre Session Commentary - Nov 10 2008
Market may rise on positive global cues
Trading Calls - Nov 10 2008
Daily News Roundup - Nov 10 2008
Smart start…keep learning!
Morning Note - Nov 10 2008
SGX Nifty Update - Nov 10 2008
Weekly Technicals - Nov 10 2008
YES Bank

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Other Headlines


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Women power
Led by Indra Nooyi, three Indians have made their way into The Wall Street Journal's global list of 50 women to watch for this year
Six hot stocks
Nifty retreats from 3100; Sterlite Industries lead
Sensex firm; Sterlite Ind, Tata Steel surge

Fannie reports $29 bn loss in Q3
Stan Chart buys Lehman unit in Brazil
Three Indians among WSJ top 50 women to watch
Car sales down 6.59% in Oct, bike sales fall 18.17%

Metal stocks surge on China stimulus package; Sterlite shines
Sensex firm; Sterlite Ind, Tata Steel surge
Equities move higher; Sensex up 450 pts
China stimulus boosts equities; Sensex ends up 5%

INVESTORS GUIDE
India Inc's Q2 results confirm investors' worst fears
Banking most cyclical and risk prone sectors
Right time to invest in stocks?
Tata Tea: Growth strategy
Deriavatives diary, swimming both ways


Sun Pharmaceutical ranks among best-performing pharma cos
Sterlite Industries, attractive bet for long-term investors
Great Offshore: Corporate Round-up
BSE sensitive index in the week gone by

Car sales down 6.59%; bike sales fall 18.17%
L&T consortium wins Mumbai mono-rail contract
Banco Santander to raise €7.19 bn through rights issue
Sensex ends 572 points up

'Growth will not be below 8% in worst-case scenario'
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Source:Sify,ET,BS,BL etc

The Global FinCrisis: Article from BT

Cover Story
The global financial crisis
Puja Mehra
The green signal for a $700-billion bailout of US banks wasn’t enough to turn the tide in global financial markets. Even six of the world’s central banks coming together to release hundreds of billions into the system couldn’t stem the panic. It has to get worse before it gets better. Puja Mehra reports.
So, where is the money?
Bear hug
Sense of rumour
-------------------------
Also read:
So, where is the money?
Panic grips Dalal Street
Is something wrong with ICICI Bank?
When bad loans are sown in good times
The Rs 60,000-crore time bomb
When exotic turns toxic
Economy in eclipse
Wall street woes, India’s opportunity
--------------------------------------
Last fortnight, the US financial disaster- as expected-blew into a full-fledged global crisis. First stop: Nearly all of Western Europe. Just like the US legislation for the over $700-billion rescue package, governments and central banks across the Atlantic, too, launched into bailout mode. Next stop: Asia, with some real estate lenders in Japan getting wiped out; and Singapore's economy, which plunged into recession.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised upwards its projection of the losses of the US banking system to $1.4 trillion. At which point, the financial tornado hit the west coast of India. For a whole week, it had Indian stock, currency and money markets in high panic. The Sensex lost nearly 2,000 points in a week, overnight inter-bank lending rates shot up to 22 per cent (from single-digit rates), the rupee slumped to Rs 48.72 to a dollar and scared investors in debt schemes of mutual funds pressed the redemption trigger. Within days, money and confidence in the Indian economy vanished into thin air. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stepped in swiftly with liquidity-releasing steps. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram proclaimed the Indian banks' strong credentials and low vulnerability of the system to the growing global financial mess. The Government cancelled its scheduled borrowing for Rs 10,000 crore from the money market. Chidambaram set up a group of who's who from the financial world to suggest, within a week, ways to ease the liquidity crunch. On October 13, Chidambaram guaranteed liquidity yet again before the opening bell at the stock markets.
Finally, sanity returned when the Asian stock markets posted relief rallies. But that may have just been temporary relief. The ghost of Wall Street is still out there. BT takes a look at the toll in India so far and what to expect next.
Worldwide woes
The financial crisis has spread way beyond its epicentre in the US and has engulfed most of Western Europe. Here's a country-by-country status and assessment.

UNITED KINGDOM
Has lined up a $850-billion rescue plan, May nationalise Royal Bank of Scotland
Will recapitalise banks by up to $88 billion. Abbey, Barclays, HSBC, Llyods, Standard Chartered, HBOS and Nationwide Building Society can draw from an aggregate of $44 billion to boost their Tier 1 capital
Bank of England will infuse liquidity of $351 billion through loans
The government will guarantee $439 billion worth of short-and-medium term debt
Britain has seized control of mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley
Earlier this year nationalised Northern Rock
Alarm: The total liabilities of Barclays of £1,300 billion (leverage ratio of over 60), surpass Britain's GDP

BELGIUM
The government took partial control of the struggling Fortis Bank
France, Belgium and Luxembourg stumped up $93 billion to recapitalise Dexia, a French-Belgian lender that ran up huge losses in its US operations
Alarm: Fortis Bank's liabilities are several times larger than the GDP of Belgium (leverage ratio of 33)

ICELAND
The government has nationalised three of Iceland's biggest banks
Accounts in these banks stand frozen

IRELAND
Has guaranteed all bank deposits

SPAIN
Will spend 50 billion euros ($68 billion) to buy bank assets, almost a third of the proposed 2009 central government budget

UNITED STATES
May pick up ownership in failing US banks (Morgan Stanley is reported to be one)
Fed ready to lend directly to stressed companies

GERMANY
Has guaranteed all bank deposits
Has organised a credit lifeline of euros 35 billion for blue-chip commercial real estate lender Hypo Real Estate Holding
Alarm: The total liabilities of Deutsche Bank (leveraging ratio of over 50) amount to 2,000-billion euro, which is more than 80 per cent of the GDP of Germany

JAPAN
Yamato Life Insurance failed with $2.7 billion in debt
The government may revive a bank-rescue law of the 1990s banking crisis
Tokyo may set up a $100-billion fund to prop up smaller lenders
Alarm: Real estate companies are folding up, forcing regional banks to raise reserves against bad loans
SINGAPORE
Eased monetary policy for the first time since 2003 after sinking into its first recession in six years, hit by the meltdown in financial markets
The government revised its 2008 growth forecast to around 3 per cent from an earlier estimate of 4 to 5
ITALY
UniCredit Bank has announced plans to raise its capital ratio by spinning of property assets

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Other BT articles:
Now, get paid to receive SMSes
What is it? A free SMS service from YouMint, started by Ankush Johar, who claims to have pioneered the concept in 2002. Since then, Johar has moved to England and YouMint is his third entrepreneurial venture in the telecom space.

People
In August company
It is an honour from his Alma Mater, but Anand Mahindra, 53, Vice-Chairman & Managing Director of Mahindra & Mahindra, calls it “a recognition of the India growth story, and of Indian entrepreneurialism in general”.

Current
Savvy investor
Rahul Sachitanand
Wipro chief Azim Premji is quietly picking up stakes in companies with strong business models.
Khattar’s second innings
Modi hosts India Inc.
TCS rides to the Citi
Divided we stand
IBM’s discovery of India
Another airport expansion
Opera’s challenge

Money
Avoid your own financial crisis
Manu Kaushik
The global financial crisis has highlighted the ruinous effects of over-spending and over-borrowing. Here’s how to avoid your own financial crisis.
On the right track
Back in business
Fix it right

Trends
Just wondering...
What happened to Dilip Chhabria’s plans of launching a made-in-India sports car? Well, the plan is on track.
The gap Is growing
New launches
“We will dominate the Indian market”
The big fall
Tugging at your heart strings
Instan tip
Now, get paid to receive SMSes
Numbers of note
Ranked
Now, shop online for loans
The 6 most over-hyped gadgets
Out in the open
Economy watch
Talebearer
How times have changed
Reprieve for ad industry
India slips on competitiveness
To be precise
Liberal ECB norms on the cards

Special
Laying down the gauntlet
Rahul Sachitanand & Kushan Mitra
With the Indian IT market expected to grow at an estimated CAGR of 18 per cent over the next five years, foreign IT giants aren't just dominating the market, they're opening up new segments and setting the agenda for some categories. Rahul Sachitanand and Kushan Mitra tell you about the twists and turns.
Re-inventing Indian IT
BPO firms learning tricks
Beyond the obvious

Noted
Ranked
SBI, which has assets of over Rs 7 lakh crore, 57th in the list of the world’s Top 1,000 banks this year, by the UKbased banking publication The Banker. SBI was ranked 70th last year.

Source: BusinessToday

Stock,Sector Views from Deadpresident

Power Grid Limited
Ranbaxy Limited
Punj Lloyd Limited
Suzlon Energy Limited

Insurance Portfolio - Top 40 Stocks
Mutual Funds Portfolio - Top 40 Stocks
FII Portfolio - Top 40 Stocks
LIC Portfolio - Top 40 Stocks

Nestle Ltd
India Cements Ltd
HPCL Ltd
Job cuts galore...

Hindalco Industries Ltd
IMF sees recession in advanced economies
Suzlon to reschedule stake purchase in REpower
Britannia Ltd

BPCL Ltd
Bharti Airtel Ltd
Apar Industries
Kingfisher Airlines faces rough weather

FMCG Sector Result Review
RIL shares tumble on plant closure reports
Auto Sector Result Review
IT Sector Result Review

Telecom Sector Result Review
Hotel Sector Result Review
Cement Monthly Update
Auto Monthly Update

Weekly Stock Recommendations - Nov 8 2008
Export growth slumps in September
Core sector growth rebounds
Fitch sees steep decline in GDPs of advanced econo...

Weekly Newsletter - Nov 8 2008
Punjab National Bank
Govt pressures state-run banks to cut rates
Obama trounces McCain...promises change for Americ...
Monthly Newsletter - Nov 8 2008

Source:Deadpresident blogs

Sensex,Nifty outlook for the week

Index Outlook



Sensex (9964.2)
Even as the world raised a toast to United States of America that voted for a new order in which racial hierarchy ceases to matter, stock markets reversed downwards. It was probably President-elect, Barack Obama’s grim reminder about the “worst financial crisis in a century” that brought the six-day-old party in equity markets to an abrupt end.
Indian markets moved in tandem with the rest of the global markets, rallying merrily up to Tuesday and reversing sharply lower on Wednesday. Volumes were high in the first half of the week but it petered off towards the weekend. Light open interest in the derivative segment implies that trades are unwilling to take bets on the market’s next move, given the high volatility.
Sensex declined 63 per cent from its January peak when it hit the low at 7697 on October 27. This fall exceeds the other declines witnessed in the Indian stock markets over the last three decades. The decline following the dot-com bubble was 57 per cent from the peak while that in 1992-93 was 56 per cent. The correction in 1986-88 was a milder 40 per cent. As per Elliott wave analysis, corrections can be deemed complete if they fulfil either the time or the price criteria. This decline has already met the price criteria and deep corrections generally consume lesser time.
Can we then infer that the market has formed a long-term bottom at 7697? The answer is, no. This decline is akin to nothing that we have seen before and the rule-books of technical analysis would have to be rewritten once this down-trend is through. It is therefore best not to jump to premature conclusions and to let the market show us the way forward.
The 10-day rate of change oscillator is moving in to the positive zone and the 14-day relative strength index too has moved up from over-sold area and is placed at 43. The implication is that the short-term outlook is mildly positive. There are however no buy signals yet in the weekly oscillator charts. A spinning top candlestick pattern was formed in the weekly chart denoting indecision; that is, a move in either direction is possible next week.
Our medium-term view too is ambivalent. Sensex reversed from the peak at 10945 on Wednesday. Our medium-term trend deciding level at 10,700 was breached only fleetingly on that day. This remains an important resistance level and penetration of this level will pave the way for a rally to 11630 or 12879. It is however difficult to envisage a move beyond the second target just yet.
The short-term trend in Sensex is positive. If it holds above last week’s trough at 9600, there can be a surprise rally to 10945 or even 11630. Immediate supports for the index are at 9320 and 8930. The index needs to close below the second support to negate this view and re-kindle the gloom and doom scenario.



Nifty (2973)

Nifty reversed from the peak at 3240 on Wednesday and closed the week with an 87 points gain. Our medium-term resistance level was tested very fleetingly and it remains the key level to watch out for. However, the fact that the index is holding above the 2860 in the recent pull-back is a positive for the short-term and if this level holds, Nifty can rally once more to 3240 or even 3471. Support below 2860 would be at 2628. The near-term view will turn overtly negative only on a penetration of this level.
Though the short-term view is positive, the medium-term view is neutral. The zone between 3175 and 3250 will try to thwart any up-move. However, if this level is surpassed, there can be a surge to 3470 or 3740. Global Cues
Global markets rallied in the first half of the week but reversed sharply from Wednesday. However, most of these markets are well-above the lows recorded in the last week of October. The CBOE volatility index declined to 44 on Tuesday, but it rebounded sharply to end the week at 56. Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded an intra-week peak at 9653, below the medium-term resistance at 10,400, indicated last week. The sideways move between 8000 and 10000 appears likely to extend for a few more weeks in this index.
Asian equities put up a relatively stronger performance last week. The Shanghai Composite is the only index that is unable to make headway and is close to its October lows. Commodities gave up most of the gains recorded in the previous week. CRB index that tracks commodity prices declined 2 per cent for the week.



--------------------------------------------

Nifty future may see sideways movement



Thanks to sharp gains on Friday, the spot Nifty and the Nifty futures were able to end the week on positive notes. Short-covering coupled with additions of fresh long positions, particularly on Thursday and Friday, helped the Nifty future fetch a premium to the spot. It ended the week at 2989.1 points, gaining over 3.7 per cent over its previous week’s close. Long positions were added even in select stock futures such as Reliance Industries, SBI, Suzlon Energy and Bharti Airtel.



Follow-up
Last week we had presented strategies based on two scenarios 1) if the market opened with a huge positive gap, we had advised traders to go short, with a stop at 3250; going short was also recommended if the market opened flat. Last week, the market did open with a big upside gap on Monday. Though the Nifty future did go on to touch a low of 2883, traders who went short may have borne losses as the Nifty future hit the stop level of 3250 during the pull back rally.



Outlook
As mentioned in this column, the Nifty future has a crucial support at 2600-2550 level and a strong resistance at 3250 level. The possibility of Nifty future touching 1880-1950 levels will loom large only if it breaches below 2550 level. On the other hand, any move above the resistance can lift the Nifty future to 3550 levels. That said, one can turn bullish only if the Nifty future moves past its crucial resistance level of 4350.



Recommendation:
Despite sharp pull back on Friday, India VIX or Volatility Index, which gauges the likely near-term volatility in the market, still remains high at 67.22. This suggests that the Nifty may be set for another bout of heightened volatility and may even see a sharp slide. However, the accumulation of long positions, both on index and on select front line futures may provide comfort.
Traders with a high-risk appetite can consider the following strategies.
In the coming week, Nifty is likely to move in a narrow band of 2750-3250. And since, we expect it to open on a calm note, traders can consider going long on Nifty future, with a stop-loss pegged at 2750 (this is suggested only if market has a soft opening).
The other strategy that traders can consider is a short straddle. This can be initiated by selling 3200 call and put that ended on Friday at Rs 140 and Rs 255. This strategy can be held for slightly longer period. The only fallout of this strategy is the hefty margin requirement as traders will be required to write options to execute a short straddle.Stock futures
Reliance Industries (1220): After falling heavily from its peak, the stock made a smart turnaround from lower levels. It is now crucially placed; it faces resistance at 1310 and has a strong support at Rs 1,150. Any move above its resistance can lift the stock to 1440-1450 level; on the other hand, a dip below the support can take it to a low of 1020. We expect the latter to happen. Traders can consider going short on the stock future, with a stop-loss at 1350.FIIs trend
The cumulative FII positions as a percentage of total gross market position on the derivative segment as on November 6 decreased to 38.73 per cent. Foreign institutional investors turned net sellers during the later part of the week. They now hold index futures worth Rs 9,136.92 crore (Rs 7,840.38 crore) and stock futures worth Rs 10,731.46 (Rs 8,984.74 crore).Their holding in index options also increased to Rs 13,588.96 crore (Rs 10,004.98 crore), according to latest NSE data.

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Wkly Tech Analysis: Nifty resistance likely at 3,200



The Sensex ended higher for the second straight week on Friday on the back of selective buying. The index began the week with a bang and touched a high of 10,945, before paring gains and slipping to a low of 9,632. The Sensex finally ended the week with a gain of 176 points at 9,964.



Whether or not the recent low of 7,697, is a bottom or not can be confirmed only if the index moves up above the 12,100-mark. Since we are closer to the year-end, we will only look at the short-term picture. As long as the Sensex stays above 8,980, the recent low can be assumed to be a bottom. However, a break of this level could see the index retesting its recent low and it may even drift lower towards the 7,000-mark.
On the upside, the 12,100-mark would be a key resistance. As and when the index breaks this mark, it may see a strong upmove towards the 15,000-mark. This week, the index may face resistance in the 10,730-11,000 zone. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around the 9,100-level.




KEY LEVELS

Sensex Nifty
S3 9150 2735
S2 9300 2785
S1 9460 2830
Close 9964 2973
R1 10465 3120
R2 10620 3165
R3 10780 3210
S-Support level

R-Resistance level


The Nifty, the NSE index, moved in a range of 380 points. From a high of 3,241, the index dropped to a low of 2,860 and then rebounded and finished with a gain of 87 points at 2,973. The Nifty chart looks better when compared to the Sensex. It suggests that the bottom is probably in place, for this year at least. In case of a downturn, the index is likely to find support around the 2,500-mark.



The Nifty, the NSE index, moved in a range of 380 points. From a high of 3,241, the index dropped to a low of 2,860 and then rebounded and finished with a gain of 87 points at 2,973. The Nifty chart looks better when compared to the Sensex. It suggests that the bottom is probably in place, for this year at least. In case of a downturn, the index is likely to find support around the 2,500-mark.
On the upside, as long as the index stays above 2,930, it has potential to rally up to 3,500 in the short term.
The bollinger bands suggest a wide trading range of 2,500-3,580. The short-term (20-day) daily moving average (DMA) is at 3,038. Once the index closes above this level, it can then test its mid-term (50-day) DMA, which is placed at 3,696. This week, the index is likely to face resistance around 3,120-3,200, while support on the downside is around 2,830-2,740.

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STOCKS: Mahindra and Mahindra: BuyThe Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) stock has shed over 30 per cent since our earlier recommendation in end-September. While a large part of the fall can be attributed to broader market volatility, a fall in profits in the second ...

STOCKS: YES Bank: BuyInvestors can consider accumulating the YES Bank stock at the current market price (CMP) of Rs 81.9. The stock has gained 49 per cent from its all-time low of Rs 55 on October 27, but remains a good investment option for investors with ...

STOCKS: IRB Infrastructure Developers: BuyWe reiterate a buy on the stock of IRB Infrastructure Developers. The stock had taken a sharp hit over the last few months on concerns of high interest rates affecting project internal rate of returns (IRRs). Signals of a softening interest ...


BANKING: The long-term outlook for bank stocksDespite concerns about tight liquidity at present, credit growth for Indian banks is likely to remain quite strong over the next few years, helped by corporate demand for credit. To cite an example, infrastructure spending in the Eleventh ...


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: InfosysThis stock reversed from the peak at Rs 1,457 on Monday and closed the week with an 8 per cent decline. If we consider the movement of the stock over the last four weeks, it is moving in a band between Rs 1,100 and Rs 1,400. The short-term ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Maruti SuzukiMUL built on the gains made in the previous week and went on to an intra-week peak at Rs 635. Though it retracted a little from this level, the short-term view on this stock stays ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Tata SteelIt was another disappointing show by Tata Steel. The sharp decline from the peak at Rs 250 shows that bears have a stranglehold on this counter. It is currently hovering around the key short-term support at Rs 180. If this level holds, the ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Reliance IndRIL reversed downward with a giant engulfing candle formation in the daily chart. The high volumes recorded on this day make it a key ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ONGCONGC rose to Rs 808 by Wednesday and spent the rest of the week moving sideways. The short term trend in the stock continues to be up. Near-term supports for the stock are at Rs 700 and then Rs 640. Short-term traders can hold their trading ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: SBIThe stellar rally in SBI in the first half of last week was stalled at the resistance at Rs ...



Source: Business Standard,BusinessLine

Inflation spooks market; Nifty ends below 2900

Inflation spooks market; Nifty ends below 2900

Equities retraced intraday gains and ended sharply lower for the second straight session Thursday as a higher-than-expected inflation rate weighed on investor sentiments. Metals and oil & gas stocks took a hit while realty and healthcare ended flat. Domestic inflation rate for the week ended Oct 25 was 10.72 per cent against 10.68 per cent a week ago. The figure disappointed traders who expected it to come in single digit. Stocks opened gap-down following correction in global markets on fears of recession, which came to the fore after the US elections were over. Shares of Tata group companies Tata Steel and Tata Motors were under tremendous pressure. Investors also continued to exit Reliance Industries.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s 30-share Sensex closed the day at 9,734.22, down 385.79 points or 3.81 per cent from the previous close. The Index touched a high of 10,109.45 and low of 9,635.22. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 2,892.65, down 102.30 points or 3.42 per cent. The 50-share index touched an intra-day low of 2,860.25 and high of 3,007.80.

BSE Midcap Index was down 2.24 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index closed 2.13 per cent down. “We are in normal correction after a phenomenal rise and may retrace below today’s low to 2746 and 2560, which forms a strong support base for the Nifty. For a higher bottom formation, Nifty has to turn from any of these above levels and should close above 3240 for two consecutive days, which would raise possibility of a 700-800 points rally on the Nifty. If market doesn’t breach low of 2860 on Friday then the levels of 3008, 3051 and 3122 will act as sell area. Close above 3122 will be positive for the market. Short term averages are trending flat and long term 200 DMA and 30 DMA are downwards,” said Bharat Gala, head technical analyst, Ventura Securities.

Tata Steel (-13.67%), Tata Motors (-12.17%), Sterlite Industries (-11.33%), Reliance Industries (-7.71%) and Hindalco (-7.50%) were the top Sensex losers.

Among stocks, Tata Motors has decided to shut production at its Jamshedpur facility for medium and heavy vehicles for three days beginning Thursday to tide over plummeting demand which had an impact on the auto company's share price. Tata Steel extended losses for the second straight day after ArcelorMittal's guidance for the current quarter painted a bleaker picture than expected and market participants forecast dismal Corus earnings for the quarter to Sep 30, 2008. Selling in Reliance Industries continued on reports that company was shutting five polyester plans at Patalganga, and a research report by securities firm ABN Amro downgrading the stock price to Rs 1,150. Jaiprakah Associates (4.10%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (3.72%), Hindustan Unilever (3.05%) and DLF (2.46%) were the top gainers. Fall in global commodities prices on concerns of demand slowdown took its toll on metal stocks. BSE Metal Index ended 8.41 per cent lower. Banking shares extended losses on worries over liquidity to meet the credit demand, although many public sector banks announced lending rate cuts and leading private sector banks are likely to follow next week. The BSE Bankex ended down 3.41 per cent at 5,442. Bank of India was worst hit and ended the session 6.11 per cent lower at Rs 259.50, followed by SBI and PNB, down nearly 4.5 per cent to Rs 1215 and Rs 470, respectively. ICICI Bank shed 4 per cent to close at Rs 434, while HDFC Bank was down by 3.10 per cent to Rs 1060.55. Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 1,633 declines and 869 advances.

Sensex sheds 386pts amid high volatility
Sensex ends 386 pts down on weak global cues
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Inflation rises to 10.72% / Inflation rises marginally to 10.72%
US stocks opens lower as economic woes mount
BoE, ECB slash key rates as EU economy slows
Obama can't overlook Indian outsourcing industry
Indices end sharply lower as inflation rises

Cognizant Q3 revenue surges; sees project delays
Reliance denies shutdown of polyester units
Inflation rises to 10.72%
Real inflation: Get the numbers right
Alkali Metals shares ends at 68% premium

Source:ET,BS,Sify etc

Sensex plunges 511 pts; RIL, Tata Steel suffer big losses

Sensex plunges 511 pts; RIL, Tata Steel suffer big losses

Tracking gains on Wall Street and in major Asian markets, equities opened on a rousing note on the major Indian bourses this morning. But then, the market went tumbling down soon thereafter as several blue chip stocks, led by index heavyweight Reliance Industries crashed sharply on a severe bout of selling pressure.
Global meltdown and stock market
Information technology, bank, pharma and select capital goods and power stocks did bounce back and pulled the market from lower levels in early afternoon trade, but another round of selling - this time the pressure was extremely severe - saw the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty plunging far deeper into the red. And the market never really recovered from the setback as selling continued right till the end as a weak trend on the European bourses and the fall of US index futures aided the bears in their pursuit.
Stockometer
The Sensex, which very nearly breached the 11,000 mark in early trade today - it shot up to a high of 10,945.41 - but nosedived to 10,051.52 during the fag end of the session, settled at 10,120.01 with a huge loss of 511.11 points or 4.81%.
Top gainers
The Nifty closed at 2994.95, near a day's low of 2971, with a loss of 147.15 points or 4.68%. Earlier, after opening at 3155.75, it had spurted to a high of 3240.55 in opening trade.
Worst losers
A marked downgrade in ratings and the company's decision to shut five of its polyester and petrochemical units took the wind out of heavyweight stock Reliance Industries today. The index major ended the session with a huge loss of 12.75% at Rs 1269.45. Tata Steel and Jaiprakash Associates lost over 10% today.
Reliance Communications, DLF, HDFC, Grasim Industries, Sterlite Industries, ACC, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro and Mahindra & Mahindra drifted down by 6% - 9.5%.
Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, Reliance Infrastructure, State Bank of India, Hindustan Unilever, BHEL, NTPC, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank also finished with sharp losses.
Infosys Technologies, ITC, ONGC, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Tata Consultancy Services and Tata Power failed to hold gains and ended in the negative territory.
Wipro bucked the trend and posted a sharp gain of 2.75%. Satyam Computer Services gained a little over a quarter per cent. Maruti Suzuki closed with a small gain.
GAIL India went down by over 15%. SAIL lost 12.4%. Unitech ended with a loss of 11.55%. Reliance Petroleum, Ambuja Cements, HCL Technologies, ABB, Reliance Power, Idea Cellular, Tata Communications, Power Grid Corporation, Nalco, Zee Entertainment, BPCL and Cairn India also closed with sharp losses.
Sun Pharmaceuticals shot up by nearly 10.5%. Suzlon Energy gained 5.9%. Punjab National Bank and Hero Honda ended with handsome gains.
As midcap and smallcap stocks also tumbled on pressure, the market breadth turned quite negative this afternoon. Out of 2638 stocks traded on the BSE, 1565 stocks closed in the negative territory. 1,000 stocks posted gains and 73 stocks ended flat.

Sensex bucks global trend, sheds 511pts, RIL weighs

Sensex ends in red

Source:Sify,BS,BL etc

Sensex plunges 511 pts; RIL, Tata Steel suffer big losses

Barack Obama elected 44th US president

Barack Obama elected 44th US president

To view election results for each state, click here: Votes.

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Democrat Barack Obama today scripted history capturing the White House in a landslide trouncing Republican John McCain to become the first Black President of the United States.

After an extraordinary nearly two-year election campaign, the 47-year-old Illinois Senator, born to a Kenyan father and White American mother, secured 338 electoral college votes against 155 of McCain, according to CNN projections.72-year-old McCain conceded defeat and urged all Americans to join him in congratulating his rival.

In his concession statement in Phoenix, he said Obama had his goodwill and he believed that the victor would make necessary compromises to bridge differences and defend the security of the country in the "dangerous world."

Obama will be sworn in as the 44th US President on January 20 next year, replacing Republican incumbent George W Bush at the end of his eight-year rule and marking a new milestone in American history 45 years after the peak of civil rights movement of Martin Luther King.
The charismatic Democrat, who had defeated Hillary Clinton in the primaries to clinch the party nomination, led a landslide expanding his party's majorities in both chambers of the US Congress -- House of Representatives and Senate, rejecting Bush's leadership.

The Democratic winner immediately faces huge challenges in the form of worsening US economy and the mess he inherits from Bush in the American war in Iraq.

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Obama creates history
WASHINGTON: Democrat Mr Barack Obama on Tuesday scripted history capturing the White House in a landslide trouncing Republican John McCain to become the first Black President of the United States.
After an extraordinary nearly two-year election campaign, the 47-year-old Illinois Senator, born to a Kenyan father and White American mother, secured 338 electoral college votes against 155 of McCain, according to CNN projections.
The 72-year-old Mr McCain conceded defeat and urged all Americans to join him in congratulating his rival. In his concession statement in Phoenix, he said Mr Obama had his goodwill and he believed that the victor would make necessary compromises to bridg e differences and defend the security of the country in the “dangerous world.”
Mr Obama will be sworn in as the 44th US President on January 20 next year, replacing Republican incumbent Mr George W Bush at the end of his eight-year rule and marking a new milestone in American history 45 years after the peak of civil rights movement of Martin Luther King.
The charismatic Democrat, who had defeated Hillary Clinton in the primaries to clinch the party nomination, led a landslide expanding his party's majorities in both chambers of the US Congress - House of Representatives and Senate, rejecting Bush's leade rship.
The Democratic winner immediately faces huge challenges in the form of worsening US economy and the mess he inherits from Mr Bush in the American war in Iraq. - PTI

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Barack Obama's victory: Three lessons for businessObama built his decisive win on three leadership principles: a clear vision, clean execution, and friends in high places.
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Video: Obama becomes the 44th US PresidentVideo: Obama becomes the 44th US President RussiaToday
Barack Obama elected next president of United States Bizjournals.comHouston Chronicle - Los Angeles Times - Council on Foreign Relationsall 1,416 news articles »

Africans elated by first black US president

US Presidential Election 2008:Electoral MapThe Business Line website features a U.S.Election Graphic from the New York Times News Service. During election night (from about 5.30 a.m. Indian Standard Time, November 5), the map will be continually updated while the votes are tallied state by state. (Map opens in a new window/tab)

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Barack Obama rode a wave of voter discontent to a historic White House victory, promising change, but now faces intense pressure to deliver on his campaign promises. Full Article Full Coverage

Obama elected

Source: All webs from the Net