8 stocks you must buy in small quantities today

8 stocks you must buy in small quantities today

The two most respected names of corporate India, Tata and Birla, failed to raise money from the stockmarket through their respective rights issues (a rights issue is when a listed company offers shares to existing shareholders at a price, which is usually less than the market price of the listed stock).
Eventually, underwriters had to buy the majority of shares. Hindalco Industries, an Aditya Birla Group company, saw just half its Rs 5,000-crore rights issue subscribed to. Tata Motors of Tata Group, too, had the same fate.
The reason? Market prices of these stocks fell much below their offer price in the rights issue, removing the investor incentive of buying. Tata Motors and Hindalco are not the only companies to have seen such a battering.
As we go to press, about 380 out of 600 companies with a market cap of over Rs 250 crore (Rs 2.5 billion), have lost more than 50 per cent of their value since January. The Sensex and the Nifty have also lost close to 60 per cent. It is carnage on markets. But, in the rubble, you will find some gleaming diamonds, available at a quarter of what they were worth until a few months ago.
The Indian market has become a victim of a global meltdown. What started as credit crisis in the US has spilled over to the global financial market. Bears are out in full force, with their usual weapon of panic and fear, and have virtually captured every market--from Wall Street to Dalal Street.
If all you saw over the last four years was unbridled enthusiasm, now all you can hear is negativity. The Indian market started witnessing selling pressure from January this year. As the credit crisis started deepening in the West and liquidity became scarce, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) started selling stocks in all the markets, including India.
Anticipation of heavy selling from the FIIs prompted domestic investors to get out. FIIs continue to dump Indian stocks--they have sold stocks worth Rs 52,000 crore, or $12.90 billion, in our markets since January. Apart from the FII play, expectation of slower growth of the economy and corporate earnings, due to deteriorating global outlook and high domestic interest rates, contributed to the market's downfall. Read on. . .

What next? International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October 2008 report, World Economic Outlook, said that the world economy is entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s. It has marked down global growth to 3 per cent for 2009, the slowest since 2002.
The Indian economy is also expected to slow down. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its mid-term review of marcoeconomic and monetary developments, published a professional forecasters' survey, which suggests that the Indian economy will grow at 7.7 per cent in FY09, compared to 9 per cent in FY08. Earnings growth has also started to show a declining trend.
Earnings guidances are being revised downwards, liquidity has become scarce, markets have fallen above 60 per cent, and FIIs continue to sell. In short, the overall condition has turned against equities. So, should you be out of equities?
Outlook Money advised caution when the market was on a dizzying ride--the Sensex was up at around 21,000. Now, as the Sensex crashes to 9044.51, we are breaking out of the pessimistic babble to tell you that this is a good time to start buying stocks.
The current crisis is being termed as once-in-a-lifetime by the Western press. If the crisis is once in lifetime, so are the challenges and opportunities. And as an investor, you should grab the opportunities.
The question you may ask is whether the market will fall further? It surely can. But you need to remember that it's always difficult to catch the bottom. The market may fall further before stabilising, but start buying now. Investors entering at this stage need to hold on to their stocks for the long term.
If you are a short-term investor, stay out of the market at this stage. Buying long-term assets with short-term capital is never a good idea.
Valuations have come down significantly, even for fundamentally sound companies. We are giving you eight such options--take your pick and invest for at least three years. Invest systematically to take advantage of any further price fall.
Methodology: The companies that have been considered for selection are the ones with a market capitalisation of at least Rs 250 crore. Among them, companies with year-on-year (y-o-y) net sales and net profit growth of more than 10 per cent for the last three years and the last two quarters were retained. From this list, only companies that were able to maintain or increase their operating profit margin (OPM) and operating cash flow in the last three years were kept.
The remaining stocks were examined individually based on qualitative and quantitative measures.

Click here to check out the 8 stock picks. . .

Source:Rediff.com

Asia's top 10 shopping destinations

Asia's top 10 shopping destinations

1. Hong Kong
November 7, 2008
F rom posh malls to the biggest hawking zones, from the most expensive stuff to the cheapest, you get it all in Asia. So it's not surprising that Asia is a paradise for shoppers.
Any guesses for the No.1 shopping hotspot in Asia? It's Hong Kong! It is followed by Bangkok and Singapore in the second and third positions among the best shopping destinations.
Hong KongHong Kong is the land of some of the biggest and impressive shopping malls. From posh malls to open air markets and streets lined with hawkers, Hong Kong offers a huge variety for shoppers. Festival Walk, Harbour City, Times Square and The Landmark.
Pacific Place, The Landmark, The Galleria, Prince's Building, Alexandra House and the IFC mall are the main shopping centres. Admiralty is known for luxury goods.
And for those of you looking for some street shopping, two parallel streets called Li Yuen Street East and Li Yuen Street West have clothing, watches, jewellery, luggage, shoes at cheap rates. Hong Kong also has amazing sales during summer (July to September) and winter (late December to February).
Causeway Bay is also popular with local shoppers and tourists. Check out the other shopping hotspots that make it to the top 10 list in a survey by SmartTravelAsia.com.

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2. Bangkok, Thailand
November 7, 2008
Bangkok is the second best shopping destination in Asia. Bangkok is a shopper's haven, a place that offers great discounts.
Towering malls and bustling street markets, Bangkok has great avenues to make your shopping an unforgettable experience. From antiquities, designer jewellery, clothes, CDs, electronic goods, Bangkok has an elaborate fare to attract all types of buyers. Central World Plaza is the biggest mall in Bangkok.
Thailand Emporium is an excellent shopping centre. Siam Discovery, Gaysorn Plaza, Amarin Plaza Bangkok, MBK Shopping Centre, Siam Paragon, Pantip Plaza on Petchaburi Road are some favourites among shoppers.
Chatuchak Weekend Market is the place to go for anything related to computers. Bangkok Patpong Night Market offers a wide range of fake goods such as watches, clothes, bags etc.

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3. Singapore
November 7, 2008
It's a delight to shop in the lively city of Singapore . With designer boutiques, local and international department stores, speciality shops and bargain counters, cafes and restaurants, shopping is truly a pleasure here.
With over 250 malls, the shopping avenues in Singapore are endless. Orchard Road is a favourite among shoppers with malls selling clothes, shoes, electronics goods, furniture, rugs, cosmetics.
Kampong Glam & Arab Street, Bugis, Geylang Serai, Marina Bay, Little India, North Bridge Road, Raffles Place Riverside are must-visits. The Riverside area by River Valley Road houses the newest and oldest shops in Singapore. Raffles Place and Shenton Way are crowded shopping areas for a variety of stuff.
Also look out for unique arts, antiques, handicrafts and carpets. Singapore organizes a mid-year sale, which is the best time to go for shopping.

For more ranks, visit:http://specials.rediff.com/money/2008/nov/07sd3.htm

Source:Rediff

Mukesh Ambani pips Mittal in Forbes India Rich list

Mukesh Ambani pips Mittal in Forbes India Rich list

Reliance Industries' Mukesh Ambani has overtaken NRI steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal as the richest Indian in the world, with a net worth of $20.8 billion, Forbes said in its annual rich list for the country. Mittal, who has moved to second position with a net worth of $20.5 billion (rpt) $20.5 billion, is followed by Mukesh's younger brother Anil Ambani, whose wealth stood at $12.5 billion. Telecom czar Sunil Mittal and realtor K P Singh are ranked fourth and fifth with net worth of $7.9 billion and $7.8 billion, respectively.

The magazine said that the combined net worth of India's 40 richest has declined by 60 per cent due to weak stock markets amid depreciating rupee against the greenback. Their total wealth is now $139 billion, down from $351 billion just a year ago, according to Forbes India Rich List. "These are painful times for India's tycoons. The country's once soaring stock market fell 48 per cent the past year, the rupee depreciated 24 per cent against the dollar, and GDP growth is expected to slow by at least a percentage point, in part owing to double-digit inflation," Forbes Asia said in a statement.

While all 40 tycoons listed last year were billionaires, only 27 have 10-figure net worths now. A net worth of 760 million dollar was needed to make to the list this year, 840 million dollar less than last year.

The Ruia brothers were ranked at sixth position with a net worth of $7.6 billion, followed by Wipro Chairman Aziz Premji, worth $7 billion. The magazine states that the combined net worth of brothers Malvinder and Shivinder Singh increased by $550 million, thereby grabbing 13th place on the list. Their combined net worth stood at $2.8 billion after they sold their stake in Ranbaxy Laboratories to Daiichi Sankyo. The list says the major loser was property tycoon Ramesh Chandra, whose net worth dropped by 91 per cent to $1 billion. Among the new entrants in the list are retailer Micky Jagtiani at 16th position with a net worth of $2 billion, followed by Divi's Laboratories' founder Murali Divi at 36th place with a net worth of $870 million. Also Akruti City's Hemant Shah stood at 37th place with a wealth of $830 million.

Source:ET

IIP grows 4.8% in September

IIP grows 4.8% in September

The index of industrial production (IIP) rose by 4.8 per cent in September 2008 as against 7 per cent during the corresponding period last year.

The manufacturing sector grew by 4.8 per cent as against 7.4 per cent last year. Electricity sector growth remained almost the same at 4.4 per cent as against 4.5 per cent in September 2007. The mining sector improved its performance by indicating 5.7 per cent growth as against 4.9 per cent.
Terming the IIP figures encouraging, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the growth in consumer goods has been a satisfactory 5.6 per cent as against -0.2 per cent in September 2007.
"The growth in the capital goods sector has been an impressive 18.8 per cent as against 20.9 per cent in September 2007. After the poor results reported for the month of August 2008, the quick estimates of IIP for the month of September 2008 are more encouraging. I say this even while I maintain that data collection must be improved and made more relevant, contemporary and universal," Chidambaram said.
The cumulative increase in industrial production during April-September 2008 period was 4.9 per cent as against 9.5 per cent during the corresponding period last year.
The IIP rose by 1.3 per cent in August 2008 as against 10.9 per cent during the corresponding period last year
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IIP in September at 4.8% against 1.4% in Aug
Industrial growth slips in Sept; but ‘encouraging’


Source:ET,BS,BL etc

Global woes drown better IIP nos, Sensex loses 303 pts

Global woes drown better IIP nos, Sensex loses 303 pts Sensex ends 303 pts down after a choppy ride

The market ended the way it had opened this morning - on a negative note - but there were a few smart rallies from lower levels during the course of the session today. While the first rebound happened on the back of some strong buying in IT and telecom stocks, the second rally was triggered by better than expected IIP numbers for the month of September. IT, power, capital goods stocks spearheaded the rally this time.
Why are the markets so volatile? Arun Kejriwal replies
However, both these rallies fizzled out soon as investors remained concerned about the consequences of a deep and prolonged global recession and chose to lighten commitments at higher levels. The market saw yet another recovery after that fall, but went down with great force in mid afternoon trade. Though it never really recovered from that setback thereafter, the market did trim down its loss to an extent thanks to some strong buying at lower levels in a few front line stocks.
Global meltdown and stock market
The Sensex, which crashed to a low of 9376.73 from its early afternoon high of 9928.60, ended the session at 9536.33 with a huge loss of 303.36 points or 3.08%. The Nifty closed with a loss of 90.20 points or 3.07% at 2848.45, over 50 points off a day's low of 2794.95. It touched a high of 2975.20 in early afternoon trade today.
Stockometer
Realty stocks went down sharply on sustained selling pressure. Mirroring the sharp fall in prices of key stocks in the sector, the BSE Realty index ended lower by as much as 7.34%. The Bankex fell 4.38% today. BSE Metal (down 3.67%), CG (down 3.63%), Power (down 3.03%), Oil & Gas (down 2.96%), Auto (down 2.59%), PSU (down 2.33%), FMCG (down 2.26%) and CD (down 2.25%) also ended sharply lower. The Healthcare and Teck indices eased by around 1.4% while the IT index, which suffered the least damage, closed with a marginal loss.
Top gainers
IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (1.05%) and Infosys Technologies (0.3%) were the only gainers from the Sensex. Among Nifty stocks, BPCL (3.05%), Tata Communications (2.35%) and Punjab National Bank (2.05%) closed with impressive gains. Hero Honda and HCL Technologies also ended on a positive note.
Worst losers
Jaiprakash Associates drifted down by over 9%. DLF lost 8.6%. ICICI Bank closed with a sharp loss of 8.35%. Reliance Infrastructure slipped by around 6.5%. Hindalco eased by 5.75% to Rs 56.55. Hindustan Unilever, Sterlite Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Tata Motors, ONGC and Tata Steel ended lower by 3% - 5%.
ACC, Tata Power, Ranbaxy Laboratories, BHEL, Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Communications, Satyam Computer Services, HDFC Bank, HDFC and ITC lost 1% - 3%. Grasim Industries and NTPC closed with modest losses while Wipro ended with a slender loss.
SAIL, Zee Entertainment, ABB, Reliance Power, Power Grid Corporation, Cairn India, Suzlon Energy, Idea Cellular, Unitech, GAIL India, Cipla, Reliance Petroleum and Nalco were among the major losers in the Nifty index.
Realty stocks India Bulls Real Estate, Anant Raj Industries, Penland, Ansal Infrastructure, HDIL, Sobha Developers, Parsvnath Developers, Orbit Corporation and Omaxe ended with sharp losses today.
Bank stocks Axis Bank, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank, Federal Bank, Allahabad Bank, IDBI Bank and J&K Bank declined sharply on selling pressure.
Thermax, Crompton Greaves, Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, Gammon India, Jyoti Structure, Usha Martin, Alstom Projects, Elecon Engineering, Bharat Bijli, Kalpataru Power Transmission, Areva, Praj Industries, Bharat Earth Movers, Havells India, Punj Lloyd and SKF India were among the prominent losers in the capital goods index.
Tata Teleservices, Max India, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Indian Oil Corporation, Phoenix Mills, Indian Hotels, Nagarjuna Construction Company, Sesa Goa, Colgate Palmolive, OnMobile Global, MphasiS and Tata Chemicals posted smart gains.
As several midcap and smallcap stocks also declined sharply today, the market breadth was very weak. Out of 2595 stocks traded on BSE, 1701 stocks closed in the negative territory. 818 stocks posted gains and 76 stocks ended flat.
The volume on the bourses were on the higher side today. On the National Stock Exchange, the turnover, at Rs 10,200.74 crore, was far higher than a turnover of Rs 8,821.63 crore the exchange had recorded in the previous session.


Source:SIfy,ET

Sensex vaults 572 pts

Sensex vaults 572 pts

The market opened with big positive gap on strong global sentiment, gained in strength as the session progressed and signed off on a buoyant note today. The bulls proved so relentless that the market never lost its momentum till the very end.

Global meltdown and stock market

As the market had one of its best sessions in recent weeks, the Sensex romped home with a huge gain of 571.87 points or 5.74% today. The barometer, which opened with a positive gap of around 190 points at 10,154.56 and hit a high of 10,570.58 in intra-day trades, settled at 10,536.16. The National Stock Exchange's 50 stock Nifty index closed at 3148.25, a few points down from a high of 3161.25, netting a big gain of 175.25 points or 5.89%.

Stockometer
The massive revival package announced by the Chinese government buoyed up Asian markets, which in turn set a strong platform for the bulls to go on a buying spree today. And things only got better in afternoon trade as the firm start on the European bourses kept the mood upbeat.
Top gainers
International Monetary Fund and some leading rating agencies have forecast a lower growth for the economy in fiscal 2009. However, shrugging off inhibition, participants formed a beeline for stocks cutting across sectors, and, for a change, refrained from lightening commitments even at higher levels.
Worst losers
Metal stocks were on song today. Power, capital goods, oil and bank stocks had a nice ride up the charts. Information technology and realty stocks lost their way after a bright start but bounced back strongly in afternoon trade to end on a high note.

Pharma, consumer durables, telecom and auto stocks also recorded handsome gains. FMCG stocks remained subdued right through the session. Besides a host of large cap stocks, several midcap and smallcap stocks too recorded impressive gains today.

Buying was so widespread that only two stocks, ITC (down 1.35%) and Maruti Suzuki (down 0.25%), among the Sensex components failed to end on a positive note today. Among Nifty stocks, BPCL, Suzlon Energy and Tata Communications closed on a negative note.

Sterlite Industries, Tata Steel and Hindalco, the metal stocks in the Sensex, ended with handsome gains. While Sterlite Industries and Tata Steel closed stronger by 13.45% and 12.85% respectively, Hindalco moved up by 10.5%.

Tata Power vaulted nearly 12% to Rs 825.05. Reliance Infrastructure (10.95%), Jaiprakash Associates (10.25%), ICICI Bank (9.25%), Bharti Airtel (9.15%), ONGC (8.65%), BHEL (7.7%), NTPC (7.3%) and index heavyweight Reliance Industries (7%) ended with big gains.
Tata Motors, Satyam Computer Services, DLF, Ranbaxy Laboratories and Infosys Technologies gained 6% - 7%. Larsen & Toubro, (5.95%), Grasim Industries (5.85%), HDFC (4.35%), Mahindra & Mahindra (4.3%), State Bank of India (4.2%), ACC (3.95%), Tata Consultancy Services (3.85%), Wipro (3.5%) and Reliance Communications (3.2%) also finished with strong gains. HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever closed with modest gains.

Nifty stocks Nalco, Cairn India and Unitech surged 11% - 12%. Idea Cellular, ABB, Siemens, Ambuja Cements and Cipla gained 7.5% - 10%. SAIL, Reliance Power, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Reliance Petroleum, HCL Technologies, Power Grid Corporation, Zee Entertainment, Punjab National Bank and GAIL India ended with sharp gains. Hero Honda edged up marginally.
Deccan Chronicle Holdings, Bombay Dyeing, NMDC, Praj Industries, GMR Infrastructure, Jindal Steel, GVK Power, Hindustan Zinc, Century Textiles, Torrent Power, Pantaloon Retail, Tata Teleservices, Chambal Fertilizers, Glenmark Pharma, IVRCL Infrastructure, Bharat Forge, Aurobindo Pharma, Arvind Mills, Everonn Systems, Varun Shipping, Simplex Infrastructure, Hindustan Oil Exploration, FSL, Aptech, UTV Software, LIC Housing Finance, Patel Engineering, Alstom Projects, KEC International, Phoenix Mills and KLG Systems were some of the big gainers today.

The market breadth was pretty strong today. Out of 2622 stocks traded on BSE, 1694 stocks closed on a positive note. 855 stocks posted losses and 73 stocks ended flat.
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Sensex ends up 5% on China plan

Equities surged on Monday to close sharply higher after China announced a financial package of 4 trillion yuan or $586 billion to tackle the menace of recession and boost growth. This had a positive impact on Asian stock markets. Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and Nikkei zoomed on expectations that the move may lessen the global slowdown pressure. Indian equities too opened higher in line with Asian peers led by gains in shares of metal, power and capital goods stocks. Positive opening of European stocks took the market to higher levels.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 10,536.16, up 571.87 points or 5.74 per cent. The 30-share index touched an intra-day high of 10570.58 and low of 10095.90. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 3148.25, up 5.89 per cent or 175.25 points. The broader index hit a high of 3161.25 after opening at 2973.30.

All the sectoral indices ended with significant gains. BSE Metal Index surged 10.92 per cent, BSE Power Index climbed 7.84 per cent, BSE Oil&gas Index moved 6.11 per cent higher. However, second rung stocks underperformed the benchmarks. BSE Midcap Index closed 3.57 per cent up and BSE Smallcap Index ended 2.25 per cent higher. Sterlite Industries, up 13.43 per cent, was the standout performer in Monday’s trade. Tata Steel (12.81%), Tata Power (11.89%), Reliance Infrastructure (10.93%), Hindalco Industries (10.5%) and Bharti Airtel (9.13%) were the other gainers in the 30-share index. “There has been a sharp fall in stock prices of most metal companies and the market capitalisation of a stock like Sterlite Industries has fallen so sharply that the sum-of-parts valuation makes the scrip very attractive. It could be attractive opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate the stock at current levels,” a senior analyst of a foreign brokerage said. ITC (-1.37%) and Maruti Suzuki (-0.27%) ended with marginal losses. Market breadth was extremely positive with 1,696 advances against 853 declines on BSE. In Europe FTSE 100 was up 3.46 per cent, CAC 40 jumped 3.65 per cent and DAX moved 3.74 per cent higher. US markets are also likely to open higher. Dow Jones futures were up 2.09 per cent, S&P 500 stocks futures moved 2.45 per cent up and Nasdaq futures inched 2.46 per cent higher. However, Sarvendra Srivastava, head of technical research, Sharekhan, had a word of caution. “We are expecting some correction from 10,600-10,700 levels. Though the medium-term trend is up, in the short-term we may retrace to 10,000 as a test of strength,” he said.

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Glenmark Pharma
Sensex up 571 pts, closes at 10,536.16
BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 10 2008
NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 10 2008
RIL, metal shares lead a near 6% Sensex surge
Post Session Commentary - Nov 10 2008
Unabated rally
Daily Call - Nov 10 2008
Pre Session Commentary - Nov 10 2008
Market may rise on positive global cues
Trading Calls - Nov 10 2008
Daily News Roundup - Nov 10 2008
Smart start…keep learning!
Morning Note - Nov 10 2008
SGX Nifty Update - Nov 10 2008
Weekly Technicals - Nov 10 2008
YES Bank

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Other Headlines


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Women power
Led by Indra Nooyi, three Indians have made their way into The Wall Street Journal's global list of 50 women to watch for this year
Six hot stocks
Nifty retreats from 3100; Sterlite Industries lead
Sensex firm; Sterlite Ind, Tata Steel surge

Fannie reports $29 bn loss in Q3
Stan Chart buys Lehman unit in Brazil
Three Indians among WSJ top 50 women to watch
Car sales down 6.59% in Oct, bike sales fall 18.17%

Metal stocks surge on China stimulus package; Sterlite shines
Sensex firm; Sterlite Ind, Tata Steel surge
Equities move higher; Sensex up 450 pts
China stimulus boosts equities; Sensex ends up 5%

INVESTORS GUIDE
India Inc's Q2 results confirm investors' worst fears
Banking most cyclical and risk prone sectors
Right time to invest in stocks?
Tata Tea: Growth strategy
Deriavatives diary, swimming both ways


Sun Pharmaceutical ranks among best-performing pharma cos
Sterlite Industries, attractive bet for long-term investors
Great Offshore: Corporate Round-up
BSE sensitive index in the week gone by

Car sales down 6.59%; bike sales fall 18.17%
L&T consortium wins Mumbai mono-rail contract
Banco Santander to raise €7.19 bn through rights issue
Sensex ends 572 points up

'Growth will not be below 8% in worst-case scenario'
Growth to slow to 7-7.5% next fiscal: PM...



Source:Sify,ET,BS,BL etc

The Global FinCrisis: Article from BT

Cover Story
The global financial crisis
Puja Mehra
The green signal for a $700-billion bailout of US banks wasn’t enough to turn the tide in global financial markets. Even six of the world’s central banks coming together to release hundreds of billions into the system couldn’t stem the panic. It has to get worse before it gets better. Puja Mehra reports.
So, where is the money?
Bear hug
Sense of rumour
-------------------------
Also read:
So, where is the money?
Panic grips Dalal Street
Is something wrong with ICICI Bank?
When bad loans are sown in good times
The Rs 60,000-crore time bomb
When exotic turns toxic
Economy in eclipse
Wall street woes, India’s opportunity
--------------------------------------
Last fortnight, the US financial disaster- as expected-blew into a full-fledged global crisis. First stop: Nearly all of Western Europe. Just like the US legislation for the over $700-billion rescue package, governments and central banks across the Atlantic, too, launched into bailout mode. Next stop: Asia, with some real estate lenders in Japan getting wiped out; and Singapore's economy, which plunged into recession.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised upwards its projection of the losses of the US banking system to $1.4 trillion. At which point, the financial tornado hit the west coast of India. For a whole week, it had Indian stock, currency and money markets in high panic. The Sensex lost nearly 2,000 points in a week, overnight inter-bank lending rates shot up to 22 per cent (from single-digit rates), the rupee slumped to Rs 48.72 to a dollar and scared investors in debt schemes of mutual funds pressed the redemption trigger. Within days, money and confidence in the Indian economy vanished into thin air. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stepped in swiftly with liquidity-releasing steps. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram proclaimed the Indian banks' strong credentials and low vulnerability of the system to the growing global financial mess. The Government cancelled its scheduled borrowing for Rs 10,000 crore from the money market. Chidambaram set up a group of who's who from the financial world to suggest, within a week, ways to ease the liquidity crunch. On October 13, Chidambaram guaranteed liquidity yet again before the opening bell at the stock markets.
Finally, sanity returned when the Asian stock markets posted relief rallies. But that may have just been temporary relief. The ghost of Wall Street is still out there. BT takes a look at the toll in India so far and what to expect next.
Worldwide woes
The financial crisis has spread way beyond its epicentre in the US and has engulfed most of Western Europe. Here's a country-by-country status and assessment.

UNITED KINGDOM
Has lined up a $850-billion rescue plan, May nationalise Royal Bank of Scotland
Will recapitalise banks by up to $88 billion. Abbey, Barclays, HSBC, Llyods, Standard Chartered, HBOS and Nationwide Building Society can draw from an aggregate of $44 billion to boost their Tier 1 capital
Bank of England will infuse liquidity of $351 billion through loans
The government will guarantee $439 billion worth of short-and-medium term debt
Britain has seized control of mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley
Earlier this year nationalised Northern Rock
Alarm: The total liabilities of Barclays of £1,300 billion (leverage ratio of over 60), surpass Britain's GDP

BELGIUM
The government took partial control of the struggling Fortis Bank
France, Belgium and Luxembourg stumped up $93 billion to recapitalise Dexia, a French-Belgian lender that ran up huge losses in its US operations
Alarm: Fortis Bank's liabilities are several times larger than the GDP of Belgium (leverage ratio of 33)

ICELAND
The government has nationalised three of Iceland's biggest banks
Accounts in these banks stand frozen

IRELAND
Has guaranteed all bank deposits

SPAIN
Will spend 50 billion euros ($68 billion) to buy bank assets, almost a third of the proposed 2009 central government budget

UNITED STATES
May pick up ownership in failing US banks (Morgan Stanley is reported to be one)
Fed ready to lend directly to stressed companies

GERMANY
Has guaranteed all bank deposits
Has organised a credit lifeline of euros 35 billion for blue-chip commercial real estate lender Hypo Real Estate Holding
Alarm: The total liabilities of Deutsche Bank (leveraging ratio of over 50) amount to 2,000-billion euro, which is more than 80 per cent of the GDP of Germany

JAPAN
Yamato Life Insurance failed with $2.7 billion in debt
The government may revive a bank-rescue law of the 1990s banking crisis
Tokyo may set up a $100-billion fund to prop up smaller lenders
Alarm: Real estate companies are folding up, forcing regional banks to raise reserves against bad loans
SINGAPORE
Eased monetary policy for the first time since 2003 after sinking into its first recession in six years, hit by the meltdown in financial markets
The government revised its 2008 growth forecast to around 3 per cent from an earlier estimate of 4 to 5
ITALY
UniCredit Bank has announced plans to raise its capital ratio by spinning of property assets

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Other BT articles:
Now, get paid to receive SMSes
What is it? A free SMS service from YouMint, started by Ankush Johar, who claims to have pioneered the concept in 2002. Since then, Johar has moved to England and YouMint is his third entrepreneurial venture in the telecom space.

People
In August company
It is an honour from his Alma Mater, but Anand Mahindra, 53, Vice-Chairman & Managing Director of Mahindra & Mahindra, calls it “a recognition of the India growth story, and of Indian entrepreneurialism in general”.

Current
Savvy investor
Rahul Sachitanand
Wipro chief Azim Premji is quietly picking up stakes in companies with strong business models.
Khattar’s second innings
Modi hosts India Inc.
TCS rides to the Citi
Divided we stand
IBM’s discovery of India
Another airport expansion
Opera’s challenge

Money
Avoid your own financial crisis
Manu Kaushik
The global financial crisis has highlighted the ruinous effects of over-spending and over-borrowing. Here’s how to avoid your own financial crisis.
On the right track
Back in business
Fix it right

Trends
Just wondering...
What happened to Dilip Chhabria’s plans of launching a made-in-India sports car? Well, the plan is on track.
The gap Is growing
New launches
“We will dominate the Indian market”
The big fall
Tugging at your heart strings
Instan tip
Now, get paid to receive SMSes
Numbers of note
Ranked
Now, shop online for loans
The 6 most over-hyped gadgets
Out in the open
Economy watch
Talebearer
How times have changed
Reprieve for ad industry
India slips on competitiveness
To be precise
Liberal ECB norms on the cards

Special
Laying down the gauntlet
Rahul Sachitanand & Kushan Mitra
With the Indian IT market expected to grow at an estimated CAGR of 18 per cent over the next five years, foreign IT giants aren't just dominating the market, they're opening up new segments and setting the agenda for some categories. Rahul Sachitanand and Kushan Mitra tell you about the twists and turns.
Re-inventing Indian IT
BPO firms learning tricks
Beyond the obvious

Noted
Ranked
SBI, which has assets of over Rs 7 lakh crore, 57th in the list of the world’s Top 1,000 banks this year, by the UKbased banking publication The Banker. SBI was ranked 70th last year.

Source: BusinessToday

Stock,Sector Views from Deadpresident

Power Grid Limited
Ranbaxy Limited
Punj Lloyd Limited
Suzlon Energy Limited

Insurance Portfolio - Top 40 Stocks
Mutual Funds Portfolio - Top 40 Stocks
FII Portfolio - Top 40 Stocks
LIC Portfolio - Top 40 Stocks

Nestle Ltd
India Cements Ltd
HPCL Ltd
Job cuts galore...

Hindalco Industries Ltd
IMF sees recession in advanced economies
Suzlon to reschedule stake purchase in REpower
Britannia Ltd

BPCL Ltd
Bharti Airtel Ltd
Apar Industries
Kingfisher Airlines faces rough weather

FMCG Sector Result Review
RIL shares tumble on plant closure reports
Auto Sector Result Review
IT Sector Result Review

Telecom Sector Result Review
Hotel Sector Result Review
Cement Monthly Update
Auto Monthly Update

Weekly Stock Recommendations - Nov 8 2008
Export growth slumps in September
Core sector growth rebounds
Fitch sees steep decline in GDPs of advanced econo...

Weekly Newsletter - Nov 8 2008
Punjab National Bank
Govt pressures state-run banks to cut rates
Obama trounces McCain...promises change for Americ...
Monthly Newsletter - Nov 8 2008

Source:Deadpresident blogs

Sensex,Nifty outlook for the week

Index Outlook



Sensex (9964.2)
Even as the world raised a toast to United States of America that voted for a new order in which racial hierarchy ceases to matter, stock markets reversed downwards. It was probably President-elect, Barack Obama’s grim reminder about the “worst financial crisis in a century” that brought the six-day-old party in equity markets to an abrupt end.
Indian markets moved in tandem with the rest of the global markets, rallying merrily up to Tuesday and reversing sharply lower on Wednesday. Volumes were high in the first half of the week but it petered off towards the weekend. Light open interest in the derivative segment implies that trades are unwilling to take bets on the market’s next move, given the high volatility.
Sensex declined 63 per cent from its January peak when it hit the low at 7697 on October 27. This fall exceeds the other declines witnessed in the Indian stock markets over the last three decades. The decline following the dot-com bubble was 57 per cent from the peak while that in 1992-93 was 56 per cent. The correction in 1986-88 was a milder 40 per cent. As per Elliott wave analysis, corrections can be deemed complete if they fulfil either the time or the price criteria. This decline has already met the price criteria and deep corrections generally consume lesser time.
Can we then infer that the market has formed a long-term bottom at 7697? The answer is, no. This decline is akin to nothing that we have seen before and the rule-books of technical analysis would have to be rewritten once this down-trend is through. It is therefore best not to jump to premature conclusions and to let the market show us the way forward.
The 10-day rate of change oscillator is moving in to the positive zone and the 14-day relative strength index too has moved up from over-sold area and is placed at 43. The implication is that the short-term outlook is mildly positive. There are however no buy signals yet in the weekly oscillator charts. A spinning top candlestick pattern was formed in the weekly chart denoting indecision; that is, a move in either direction is possible next week.
Our medium-term view too is ambivalent. Sensex reversed from the peak at 10945 on Wednesday. Our medium-term trend deciding level at 10,700 was breached only fleetingly on that day. This remains an important resistance level and penetration of this level will pave the way for a rally to 11630 or 12879. It is however difficult to envisage a move beyond the second target just yet.
The short-term trend in Sensex is positive. If it holds above last week’s trough at 9600, there can be a surprise rally to 10945 or even 11630. Immediate supports for the index are at 9320 and 8930. The index needs to close below the second support to negate this view and re-kindle the gloom and doom scenario.



Nifty (2973)

Nifty reversed from the peak at 3240 on Wednesday and closed the week with an 87 points gain. Our medium-term resistance level was tested very fleetingly and it remains the key level to watch out for. However, the fact that the index is holding above the 2860 in the recent pull-back is a positive for the short-term and if this level holds, Nifty can rally once more to 3240 or even 3471. Support below 2860 would be at 2628. The near-term view will turn overtly negative only on a penetration of this level.
Though the short-term view is positive, the medium-term view is neutral. The zone between 3175 and 3250 will try to thwart any up-move. However, if this level is surpassed, there can be a surge to 3470 or 3740. Global Cues
Global markets rallied in the first half of the week but reversed sharply from Wednesday. However, most of these markets are well-above the lows recorded in the last week of October. The CBOE volatility index declined to 44 on Tuesday, but it rebounded sharply to end the week at 56. Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded an intra-week peak at 9653, below the medium-term resistance at 10,400, indicated last week. The sideways move between 8000 and 10000 appears likely to extend for a few more weeks in this index.
Asian equities put up a relatively stronger performance last week. The Shanghai Composite is the only index that is unable to make headway and is close to its October lows. Commodities gave up most of the gains recorded in the previous week. CRB index that tracks commodity prices declined 2 per cent for the week.



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Nifty future may see sideways movement



Thanks to sharp gains on Friday, the spot Nifty and the Nifty futures were able to end the week on positive notes. Short-covering coupled with additions of fresh long positions, particularly on Thursday and Friday, helped the Nifty future fetch a premium to the spot. It ended the week at 2989.1 points, gaining over 3.7 per cent over its previous week’s close. Long positions were added even in select stock futures such as Reliance Industries, SBI, Suzlon Energy and Bharti Airtel.



Follow-up
Last week we had presented strategies based on two scenarios 1) if the market opened with a huge positive gap, we had advised traders to go short, with a stop at 3250; going short was also recommended if the market opened flat. Last week, the market did open with a big upside gap on Monday. Though the Nifty future did go on to touch a low of 2883, traders who went short may have borne losses as the Nifty future hit the stop level of 3250 during the pull back rally.



Outlook
As mentioned in this column, the Nifty future has a crucial support at 2600-2550 level and a strong resistance at 3250 level. The possibility of Nifty future touching 1880-1950 levels will loom large only if it breaches below 2550 level. On the other hand, any move above the resistance can lift the Nifty future to 3550 levels. That said, one can turn bullish only if the Nifty future moves past its crucial resistance level of 4350.



Recommendation:
Despite sharp pull back on Friday, India VIX or Volatility Index, which gauges the likely near-term volatility in the market, still remains high at 67.22. This suggests that the Nifty may be set for another bout of heightened volatility and may even see a sharp slide. However, the accumulation of long positions, both on index and on select front line futures may provide comfort.
Traders with a high-risk appetite can consider the following strategies.
In the coming week, Nifty is likely to move in a narrow band of 2750-3250. And since, we expect it to open on a calm note, traders can consider going long on Nifty future, with a stop-loss pegged at 2750 (this is suggested only if market has a soft opening).
The other strategy that traders can consider is a short straddle. This can be initiated by selling 3200 call and put that ended on Friday at Rs 140 and Rs 255. This strategy can be held for slightly longer period. The only fallout of this strategy is the hefty margin requirement as traders will be required to write options to execute a short straddle.Stock futures
Reliance Industries (1220): After falling heavily from its peak, the stock made a smart turnaround from lower levels. It is now crucially placed; it faces resistance at 1310 and has a strong support at Rs 1,150. Any move above its resistance can lift the stock to 1440-1450 level; on the other hand, a dip below the support can take it to a low of 1020. We expect the latter to happen. Traders can consider going short on the stock future, with a stop-loss at 1350.FIIs trend
The cumulative FII positions as a percentage of total gross market position on the derivative segment as on November 6 decreased to 38.73 per cent. Foreign institutional investors turned net sellers during the later part of the week. They now hold index futures worth Rs 9,136.92 crore (Rs 7,840.38 crore) and stock futures worth Rs 10,731.46 (Rs 8,984.74 crore).Their holding in index options also increased to Rs 13,588.96 crore (Rs 10,004.98 crore), according to latest NSE data.

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Wkly Tech Analysis: Nifty resistance likely at 3,200



The Sensex ended higher for the second straight week on Friday on the back of selective buying. The index began the week with a bang and touched a high of 10,945, before paring gains and slipping to a low of 9,632. The Sensex finally ended the week with a gain of 176 points at 9,964.



Whether or not the recent low of 7,697, is a bottom or not can be confirmed only if the index moves up above the 12,100-mark. Since we are closer to the year-end, we will only look at the short-term picture. As long as the Sensex stays above 8,980, the recent low can be assumed to be a bottom. However, a break of this level could see the index retesting its recent low and it may even drift lower towards the 7,000-mark.
On the upside, the 12,100-mark would be a key resistance. As and when the index breaks this mark, it may see a strong upmove towards the 15,000-mark. This week, the index may face resistance in the 10,730-11,000 zone. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around the 9,100-level.




KEY LEVELS

Sensex Nifty
S3 9150 2735
S2 9300 2785
S1 9460 2830
Close 9964 2973
R1 10465 3120
R2 10620 3165
R3 10780 3210
S-Support level

R-Resistance level


The Nifty, the NSE index, moved in a range of 380 points. From a high of 3,241, the index dropped to a low of 2,860 and then rebounded and finished with a gain of 87 points at 2,973. The Nifty chart looks better when compared to the Sensex. It suggests that the bottom is probably in place, for this year at least. In case of a downturn, the index is likely to find support around the 2,500-mark.



The Nifty, the NSE index, moved in a range of 380 points. From a high of 3,241, the index dropped to a low of 2,860 and then rebounded and finished with a gain of 87 points at 2,973. The Nifty chart looks better when compared to the Sensex. It suggests that the bottom is probably in place, for this year at least. In case of a downturn, the index is likely to find support around the 2,500-mark.
On the upside, as long as the index stays above 2,930, it has potential to rally up to 3,500 in the short term.
The bollinger bands suggest a wide trading range of 2,500-3,580. The short-term (20-day) daily moving average (DMA) is at 3,038. Once the index closes above this level, it can then test its mid-term (50-day) DMA, which is placed at 3,696. This week, the index is likely to face resistance around 3,120-3,200, while support on the downside is around 2,830-2,740.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: InfosysThis stock reversed from the peak at Rs 1,457 on Monday and closed the week with an 8 per cent decline. If we consider the movement of the stock over the last four weeks, it is moving in a band between Rs 1,100 and Rs 1,400. The short-term ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Maruti SuzukiMUL built on the gains made in the previous week and went on to an intra-week peak at Rs 635. Though it retracted a little from this level, the short-term view on this stock stays ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Tata SteelIt was another disappointing show by Tata Steel. The sharp decline from the peak at Rs 250 shows that bears have a stranglehold on this counter. It is currently hovering around the key short-term support at Rs 180. If this level holds, the ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Reliance IndRIL reversed downward with a giant engulfing candle formation in the daily chart. The high volumes recorded on this day make it a key ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ONGCONGC rose to Rs 808 by Wednesday and spent the rest of the week moving sideways. The short term trend in the stock continues to be up. Near-term supports for the stock are at Rs 700 and then Rs 640. Short-term traders can hold their trading ...

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Source: Business Standard,BusinessLine