11:45
May 4 2009: 529
March 9 2009: 263
Per centage change: 101
Your Rs 1L would now be worth: 2,01,190
NEW DELHI: It may sound utopian in the backdrop of months-long downslide on bourses, but a US-based equity research group sees India's benchmark This would mean an unimaginable rally of over 10-times from the level seen just a few days ago, when Sensex was toiling below 10,000-point mark after a meltdown that began more than a year ago. The Sensex had more than halved to trade below 8,000-point mark in October last year after scaling a record high of over 21,000 points on January 10, 2008. Unperturbed by the sharp fall, US-based global equity research group Elliott Wave International, which specialises in analysis of technical charts of stock movements, believes that the recent surge in Indian market is the beginning of a long-running bull cycle that could continue for 15 years. The recent upsurge began on March 9 and the Sensex has gained over 2,500 points or by more than 30 per cent. "If the price and time proportions between the waves in the 2003-2008 rally continue, the Sensex should hit 100,000 in about 15 years," research group's Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski told PTI over phone. In its report for Asia-Pacific markets, based on analysis of technical charts, Elliottt Wave has said there were strong indications of "a resumption of the bull market in Indian stocks". Extending its previous analysis in November last year, when it had said the Sensex might continue advancing for 15 years before the end of another bull run, Elliott Wave said the market seemed to have completed its most recent downward spiral in October 2008. The Indian stock market benchmark Sensex had scaled an all-time high of 21,206.77 points on January 10, 2008 before embarking on a downward journey, wherein it touched a low of 7,697.39 points on October 27. According to the Elliot Wave's April forecast report, the Sensex has declined in three waves to the October low, where it retraced approximately 50 per cent of its 2003-08 rally on a percentage basis. The index has just broken out of its downward trend channel and the patterns seen recently and during the 2003-04 period "are the best argument for a resumption of the bull market in Indian stocks," it added. Naming India among the "potential baby bulls" of the region, alongside Taiwan and Korea, Elliott Wave had said the completion of three waves of fall from their respective highs had made them "strong candidates to rally back to at least near their all-time highs -- if not beyond". Elliottt Wave has also classified Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Australia as long-term bear markets, while the "potential baby bulls" have been described as those which investors should consider for long-term investments. The report further noted that India had experienced long- running bearish phase in the past, indicating that the next bull-run could continue beyond its most recent all-time high levels. Until the early 2000s, the long bear market in India lasted for 11 years (1992-2003). "The five-wave pattern from 2003-08 is a road map to the future. Elliott waves progress in five waves and correct in three waves," research group's Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski said. | |
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23 Apr 2009, 1701 hrs IST, | |||||||
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| MUMBAI: India's biggest energy group, Reliance Industries Ltd, quarterly net profit fell 1 percent as global economic crisis hurt demand, but The company, valued at $54 billion, posted a net profit excluding the effect of exceptional items of 38.74 billion rupees ($773 million) on Thursday for its fiscal fourth quarter ended March, compared with 39.12 billion reported a year ago. A Reuters poll had forecast a net profit of 36.1 billion rupees. Reliance's most-watched refining margins fell to $9.9 per barrel in the quarter, from $15.5 a year earlier. Turnover fell to 290.73 billion rupees from 386.97 billion a year ago. Ahead of the results, shares in Reliance, closed up 2.7 percent at 1,762.35 rupees in a Mumbai market that rose 2.9 percent. The stock jumped 24 percent in the March quarter, outperforming a flat benchmark index and the energy sector's 16.6 percent rise. | |||||||
Reliance Industries has announced its fourth quarter results. The company's Q4 FY09 net profit was down by 1% at Rs 3,874 crore as compared to Rs 3,912 crore in the same period last year.
Its Q4 net sales were down 24% at Rs 2,8362 crore as against Rs 3,7286 crore on YoY basis.
Its Q4 operating profit margins were at 19.17% versus 16.14% on YoY basis. Its Q4 other income was at Rs 993 crore versus Rs 289 crore on YoY basis.
The company's Q4 EBITDA was at Rs 5437 crore versus Rs 6019 crore on YoY basis.
Its Q4 Gross Refining Margin (GRM) was at USD 9.90 per barrel FY09 whereas FY09 GRM was at USD 12.20 per barrel.
Its raw material costs was down 49.99% at Rs 12834 crore versu Rs 25664 crore.
Its other income was up 243% at Rs 993 crore versus Rs 289 crore.
Its interest costs was up 75.4% at Rs 477 crore versus Rs 272 crore.
The company's exceptional loss of Rs 370 crore reprersents provision towards estimated claims on acct of subsidies.
Reliance Says “Forex Exchange Accounting treatment followed by Co. is consistent with revised AS11”
According to CNBC-TV18 estimates, its net sales were seen down 18.5% to Rs 30,373.4 crore from Rs 37286 crore. The company’s net profit was seen down 9.9% to Rs 3526.2 crore from Rs 3912 crore. Its EBITDA was seen down 6.6% to Rs 5621 crore from Rs 6019 crore.
Other Results
23 Apr 2009, 1601 hrs IST, | |||||||
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| Reliance Petroleum Limited (RPL) on Thursday announced that the company has posted a net profit of Rs 84 crore on net sales of Rs 3,678 crone The refinery processed 3.6 million tonnes of crude oil and commenced several secondary processing units during the quarter, the company said in a media statement. The company has employed capital of Rs 33,982 crore ($6.7 billion) against the projected target of Rs 27,000 crore ($5.7 billion). The difference was primarily because of the exchange rate  The company has adjusted the foreign currency exchange differences on amounts borrowed for acquisition of fixed assets to the carrying cost of fixed assets in line with the amendment to Accounting Standard (AS 11), the company said in its notes to account. RPL has commenced production and dispatch of products from its refinery to the quality conscious markets of US and Europe, the company release said. RPL is in process of being merged with its parent firm Reliance Industries (RIL) from appointed date of April 1, 2008. Commenting on the progress of the refinery, RPL chairman Mukesh Ambani said, "The proposed merger with RIL will lead to a globally competitive and industry leading refinery business and create sustainable value for shareholders." Shares of RPL on BSE gained 3% to close at Rs 110. The stock has gained 2% over the last one week and 23% in the last one month. | |||||||
| COVER STORY | ||
| The next 400 million | ||
| Kushan Mitra | ||
| April 16, 2009 |
| Balika Vadhu? | Information Services | Mobile Farmer |
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Also Read: Weekly round-up: Experts see reduction in risk aversion
Though there wasn’t much to take away from the week, but the uptrend will continue. Markets currently have come to a very important juncture, which is the 200 day moving average. The market went that on a weekly basis, but closed below that level. That doesn’t mean much; it simply means that around the critical resistance level 3,400 or 3,500, which was the target for the Nifty, it has suddenly become volatile.
Traders will be guessing as they go into next week as the uptrend is still very much there and its not broken but a few more question marks have certainly have come to the fore at 3,500 Nifty.
Also Read: Volatility to keep traders guessing
Markets next week
Markets have had a spectacular rally. The level of conviction in buying now at 3,500 to ride it higher from here that too three weeks before election result is probably just questioning traders a little bit and that is why one have seen this kind of two way movement.
Now volatility at important resistance points after very large moves is not the best thing to see. So one cannot say whether this will be a bigger re-tracement that the market is setting itself up for or this is the markets way of consolidating at an important level – 200 day moving average before it takes it out and goes on to higher levels from here.
I don’t know of the answer, but next week could be an important one in answering that question on whether we can consolidate here even if we have to give up a couple of 100-points on the Nifty and then keep our sights for higher levels on the Nifty. But it is the last couple of days of volatility, which changes things a little bit and makes it a little bit more interesting and less unidirectional that we have had for the last five-weeks.”
Trading ideas for next week
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Company Limited (GNFC) is another stock that has run up. At Rs 68, the stock seems reasonable to buy, because there is a significant support at the Rs 60 area. So a decline should certainly stop there for a certain time. Risk is low and reasonable.”
We like Alok Textile a lot. We have seen good open interest additions in the future for this stock as well as the good delivery counters on the stock. We believe that the stock can test levels of Rs 19-20 in the next few weeks. Levels of Rs 15 and Rs 14.50 could be good levels to enter the stock with a stoploss below Rs 14.”
Axis Bank has also shown a good breakout from past Rs 475. The stock is now setting up for a target of Rs 550-575. So in Axis Bank, buy on declines strategy, keeping a stoploss at Rs 470-475, would be good looking for a target of 550-575.
F&O strategy for next week
Money Markets
Part of it is also driven by the hope last week that on Tuesday the RBI could cut repo rates and reverse repo rates further. It is not a unanimous expectation at all – just spilt down the middle – in fact may be a slightly smaller minority is expecting a rate cut. But even if there is no rate cut, the expectation is not that yields are going to jump. If there is a cut, then one can see the 10-year yield falling from 6.4% last week to may be 6.25%, but if there is no rate cut may be it will linger around 6.40-6.50%, but not really expected to rise much at all. That’s primarily because there is so much of liquidity in the system. So basically going into credit policy with a very bullish frame of mind and that bullishness is not really expected to peter out much even if that rate cut doesn’t come.
Commodities next week
We asked our participants in the commodities poll whether the government would be able to control sugar prices with the recent steps for a longer time.
Can government control sugar prices for a long period?
a) No 60%
b) Yes 30%
CNBC-TV18 POLL
a) Between Rs 2150-2300 50%
b) Between Rs 2000-2100 40%
c) Break Below Rs 2000 10%
CNBC-TV18 POLL
Good level to buy gold?
a) $860 25%
b) $850 35%
c) $810-830 40%
CNBC-TV18 POLL
Decline in metals an opportunity to buy?
a) Yes 40%
b) No 40%
c) Can't Say 20%
Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries (RIL) could overtake state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Oil India to account for over 40 per cent of the country’s natural gas production in the next three years, say analysts. |
Supply from RIL’s Krishna Godavari basin reserve on the east coast began on April 2. The initial production will be around 14 million standard cubic metres per day (mscmd), which would go to the urea units of fertiliser firms.
If production steps up as anticipated, the present market share of ONGC and OIL will drop from 65 per cent now to around 30 per cent in the next three years. While liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports would come down from the present 25 per cent of all supply to around 15 per cent, says Ajay Arora, Partner, Ernst and Young.
The country’s gas mainly comes from the western offshore fields and the balance from Gujarat and the North-Eastern states.
In December 2006, ONGC announced that it had found an estimated 21 to 22 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas in the Krishna Godavari basin. The company also announced another find in 2006 in the Mahanadi basin, off the coast of Orissa, with an estimated 3 to 4 tcf reserves in place. In addition, in August 2008, the company made four new finds in a another block in the same basin.
State-owned Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) holds an estimated 1.8 tcf of natural gas reserves in the Krishna Godavari area, a substantial holding for the company.
However, analysts maintain that these finds by ONGC and GSPC would take time to come on stream, which would be beneficial for RIL. “Most of the gas finds so far have been from the New Exploration Licensing Policy (Nelp) I and III rounds. Thus, ONGC and RIL would emerge as the prominent players in future. However, while RIL could be the leading domestic supplier, it does not mean it has monopoly over pricing. The regulator will take care of the consumer’s interest,” said a senior analyst.
Src:Business-Standard
The traffic on the flyway is expected to increase at a healthy rate, mainly due to the ongoing residential and commercial development in Noida and Greater Noida.
Land bank on the either sides of the bridge is an additional asset. The company expects further 40% growth in its average daily traffic over next two years due to Commonwealth games to be held in Delhi NCR in 2010.
Investors looking for a large-cap stock which will add value to their portfolio can consider accumulating the State Bank of India stock in declines.
Beaten down valuations, strong financials in an extremely challenging macro environment, with sustainable growth in advances, make the bank stock attractive. Though the bank trades at a premium to all public sector banks, this appears justified given the size of its balance-sheet and the huge market share, despite which it has delivered better financial performance than its peers.
Market share for the bank has improved in recent quarters.
With its existing operations, ongoing expansion plans and high profitability, NTPC is favourably placed in the power generation space.
Further, the shortage in power supply, which is expected to remain in the medium to long term, will keep the capacity utilization of power plants at a high level.
The best known IT stock from India.
Well reputed as a quality solution provider, has very long established relationships with a number of leading banks and corporates in the US and other places, impeccable record of transparency and good corporate governance and strong balance sheet are some of the features why we feel Infosys is a must in every investor’s portfolio.
India’s infrastructure story is best captured by L&T.
Strong management, healthy order book position, diversification across product categories and geographies are some of the strong points of this bellwether engineering company.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/quickiearticleshow/3908411.cms
Rank: 1
Market cap: Rs 7,465.86 crore (Rs 74.66 billion)
Chairman and chief strategy officer: Shiv Nadar
What it does: HCL Technologies is a leading global IT services company. It offers an integrated portfolio of services, including software-led IT solutions, remote infrastructure management, engineering and R&D services and BPO.
Name: Hindustan Zinc Limited
Rank: 2
Market cap: Rs 20,406.75 crore (Rs 204.07 billion)
Chairman: Agnivesh Agrawal
What it does: Hindustan Zinc is a vertically integrated company with mining and smelting operations located mainly in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. It is one of the world's largest integrated zinc and lead producers.
Name: Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces
Rank: 3
Market cap: Rs 312.25 crore (Rs 3.12 billion)
Managing director and CEO: Raymond Bickson
What it does: Recognised as one of Asia's largest and finest hotel company, Taj Hotels Resort and Palaces comprises more than 60 hotels in 45 locations across India with an additional 15 international hotels in the Malaysia, United Kingdom, United States of America, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Africa, the Middle East and Australia.
Last year, the group's heritage hotel in Mumbai faced a terrible terrorist attack. During this crisis, its staff won accolades for putting their guests' safety and comfort first, at times even at the cost of their own lives.
Name: Cisco Systems
Rank: 4
Revenue, as of 2008 : $39 billion
Chairman and CEO: John T Chambers
What it does: Cisco hardware, software and service offerings are used to create Internet solutions that make networks possible. It was founded in 1984 by a small group of computer scientists from Stanford University.
Since the company's inception, Cisco engineers have been leaders in the development of Internet Protocol-based networking technologies. Today, it has more than 67,647 employees worldwide.
Name: ITC -- Welcomgroup
Rank: 5
Worth: Rs 2,300 crore (Rs 23 billion)
CEO: Nakul Anand
What it does: ITC entered the hotels business in 1975 with the acquisition of a hotel in Chennai, which was rechristened ITC Chola. Today, ITC-Welcomgroup has over 90 hotels in 77 destinations.
Despite the downturn, the company isn't lowering growth projections or reducing its workforce. In fact, it plans to double the number of rooms in its luxury hotels to 5,000 in the next three years.
More @ http://specials.rediff.com/money/2009/apr/08sd6-indias-top-25-best-employers.htm
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/quickiearticleshow/4383308.cms
