26 May 2009

What UPA left behind for itself to take forward

What UPA left behind for itself to take forward
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ET Bureau

The new government that takes office later this week has its task cut out. Growth has slackened from a peak of 9.7% experienced in 2006-07.

In the current fiscal, we can at best hope for 6% growth, unless the government acts with a sense of urgency in its first few months in office to remedy the situation. We need another reform stimulus, not just another fiscal stimulus.

Reforms that were stuck for want of consensus in the government’s previous term must be pushed through. Here’s a look at some of the economy’s vital statistics, as the new government takes charge.




GDP growth

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Inflation
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Industrial growth
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Trade winds
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Tax collections
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More Stats@

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshowpics/4545617.cms




Other articles:
Invest based on fundamentals
Markets are bound to test your patience both when they move up or down but you can make money when you stick to your conviction.
Source: Economic TImes.com





13 May 2009

India's Top 20 Web 2.0 websites

Check out India's Top 20 Web 2.0 websites

Here's a listing of the Top 25 Web 2.0 Indian websites identified by Dataquest magazine. The list, prepared by Dataquest, with help of Indianweb2.com, that tracks Indian start-ups in the technology space in general and web 2.0 space in particular, is a mix of social networking sites, tool makers, rating sites, and creators of close-knit online communities and collaborative mobile applications.



Apna Circle (www.apnacircle.com): A niche social networking site focused on careers



AuthorStream (www.authorstream.com): Focused on user generated content. Users can share online presentations and slideshows


BharatStudent (www.bharatstudent.com): A networking platform addressing education and career related issues of students



BigAdda (www.bigadda.com): A broad-based social networking site on the lines of Facebook and Orkut, offering everything to everyone


Burrp TV (www.burrp.com): Focused on local information from TV channels to restaurants based on user generated content and user ratings


Commonfloor (www.commonfloor.com): An online community of housing societies and apartments owners and residents popular with several large builders


DesiMartini (www.desimartini.com): A broad-based social networking site for Indians across the globe.


Fropper (www.fropper.com): India's most well-known dating site with abundant social networking features


Ibibo (www.ibibo.com): A platform to showcase talent and connect with people with similar interests



More @ Check out India's Top 20 Web 2.0 websites


Source:ET



05 May 2009

Check out the top 30 stocks at 12000 on BSE

Check out the top 30 stocks at 12,000 on BSE

30 stocks @ 12K


If you had invested Rs 1L in any of these stocks on March 9, 2009, when sensex was at 8K, you would have made good returns.

Here are the top 30 stocks @ 12K on BSE:

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd


May 4 2009: 147

March 9 2009: 66

Per centage change: 124

Your Rs 1L would now be worth: 2,23,610



ICICI Bank Ltd
11:45

May 4 2009: 529

March 9 2009: 263

Per centage change: 101

Your Rs 1L would now be worth: 2,01,190


Sterlite Industries India Ltd

May 4 2009: 477

March 9 2009: 244

Per centage change: 95

Your Rs 1L would now be worth: 1,95,050



More @ Check out the top 30 stocks at 12,000 on BSE


Source:Economic Times

28 April 2009

Sensex at 1,00,000 points? Possible by 2025: Technical charts

Sensex at 1,00,000 points? Possible by 2025: Technical charts



NEW DELHI: It may sound utopian in the backdrop of months-long downslide on bourses, but a US-based equity research group sees India's benchmark
index Sensex scaling a milestone of 1,00,000 points within next 15 years.

This would mean an unimaginable rally of over 10-times from the level seen just a few days ago, when Sensex was toiling below 10,000-point mark after a meltdown that began more than a year ago.

The Sensex had more than halved to trade below 8,000-point mark in October last year after scaling a record high of over 21,000 points on January 10, 2008.

Unperturbed by the sharp fall, US-based global equity research group Elliott Wave International, which specialises in analysis of technical charts of stock movements, believes that the recent surge in Indian market is the beginning of a long-running bull cycle that could continue for 15 years.

The recent upsurge began on March 9 and the Sensex has gained over 2,500 points or by more than 30 per cent.

"If the price and time proportions between the waves in the 2003-2008 rally continue, the Sensex should hit 100,000 in about 15 years," research group's Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski told PTI over phone.

In its report for Asia-Pacific markets, based on analysis of technical charts, Elliottt Wave has said there were strong indications of "a resumption of the bull market in Indian stocks".

Extending its previous analysis in November last year, when it had said the Sensex might continue advancing for 15 years before the end of another bull run, Elliott Wave said the market seemed to have completed its most recent downward spiral in October 2008.

The Indian stock market benchmark Sensex had scaled an all-time high of 21,206.77 points on January 10, 2008 before embarking on a downward journey, wherein it touched a low of 7,697.39 points on October 27.




According to the Elliot Wave's April forecast report, the Sensex has declined in three waves to the October low, where it retraced approximately 50 per cent of its 2003-08 rally on a percentage basis.

The index has just broken out of its downward trend channel and the patterns seen recently and during the 2003-04 period "are the best argument for a resumption of the bull market in Indian stocks," it added.

Naming India among the "potential baby bulls" of the region, alongside Taiwan and Korea, Elliott Wave had said the completion of three waves of fall from their respective highs had made them "strong candidates to rally back to at least near their all-time highs -- if not beyond".

Elliottt Wave has also classified Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Australia as long-term bear markets, while the "potential baby bulls" have been described as those which investors should consider for long-term investments.

The report further noted that India had experienced long- running bearish phase in the past, indicating that the next bull-run could continue beyond its most recent all-time high levels.

Until the early 2000s, the long bear market in India lasted for 11 years (1992-2003).

"The five-wave pattern from 2003-08 is a road map to the future. Elliott waves progress in five waves and correct in three waves," research group's Asia-Pacific Financial Forecast editor Mark Galasiewski said.






23 April 2009

Reliance Q4 net down 1% but beats forecast

Reliance Q4 net down 1% but beats forecast

Reliance Q4 net down 1% but beats forecast

23 Apr 2009, 1701 hrs IST, REUTERS

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MUMBAI: India's biggest energy group, Reliance Industries Ltd, quarterly net profit fell 1 percent as global economic crisis hurt demand, but

still fared better than market expectations.

The company, valued at $54 billion, posted a net profit excluding the effect of exceptional items of 38.74 billion rupees ($773 million) on Thursday for its fiscal fourth quarter ended March, compared with 39.12 billion reported a year ago.

A Reuters poll had forecast a net profit of 36.1 billion rupees. Reliance's most-watched refining margins fell to $9.9 per barrel in the quarter, from $15.5 a year earlier.

Turnover fell to 290.73 billion rupees from 386.97 billion a year ago.

Ahead of the results, shares in Reliance, closed up 2.7 percent at 1,762.35 rupees in a Mumbai market that rose 2.9 percent.

The stock jumped 24 percent in the March quarter, outperforming a flat benchmark index and the energy sector's 16.6 percent rise.

RIL Q4 net profit down 1% at Rs 3874cr

Apr 23, 2009 at 05.01 PM

Reliance Industries has announced its fourth quarter results. The company's Q4 FY09 net profit was down by 1% at Rs 3,874 crore as compared to Rs 3,912 crore in the same period last year.

Its Q4 net sales were down 24% at Rs 2,8362 crore as against Rs 3,7286 crore on YoY basis.

Its Q4 operating profit margins were at 19.17% versus 16.14% on YoY basis. Its Q4 other income was at Rs 993 crore versus Rs 289 crore on YoY basis.

The company's Q4 EBITDA was at Rs 5437 crore versus Rs 6019 crore on YoY basis.

Its Q4 Gross Refining Margin (GRM) was at USD 9.90 per barrel FY09 whereas FY09 GRM was at USD 12.20 per barrel.

Its raw material costs was down 49.99% at Rs 12834 crore versu Rs 25664 crore.

Its other income was up 243% at Rs 993 crore versus Rs 289 crore.

Its interest costs was up 75.4% at Rs 477 crore versus Rs 272 crore.

The company's exceptional loss of Rs 370 crore reprersents provision towards estimated claims on acct of subsidies.

Reliance Says “Forex Exchange Accounting treatment followed by Co. is consistent with revised AS11”

According to CNBC-TV18 estimates, its net sales were seen down 18.5% to Rs 30,373.4 crore from Rs 37286 crore. The company’s net profit was seen down 9.9% to Rs 3526.2 crore from Rs 3912 crore. Its EBITDA was seen down 6.6% to Rs 5621 crore from Rs 6019 crore.


Other Results

RPL Q4 net profit at Rs 84 crore

23 Apr 2009, 1601 hrs IST, ET Bureau

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Reliance Petroleum Limited (RPL) on Thursday announced that the company has posted a net profit of Rs 84 crore on net sales of Rs 3,678 crone

for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2009. The figures of the previous year were not available, as its 5,80,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) refinery in Jamnagar SEZ started commercial operations from 15 March.


The refinery processed 3.6 million tonnes of crude oil and commenced several secondary processing units during the quarter, the company said in a media statement. The company has employed capital of Rs 33,982 crore ($6.7 billion) against the projected target of Rs 27,000 crore ($5.7 billion). The difference was primarily because of the exchange rate
fluctuations.


The company has adjusted the foreign currency exchange differences on amounts borrowed for acquisition of fixed assets to the carrying cost of fixed assets in line with the amendment to Accounting Standard (AS 11), the company said in its notes to account.

RPL has commenced production and dispatch of products from its refinery to the quality conscious markets of US and Europe, the company release said. RPL is in process of being merged with its parent firm Reliance Industries (RIL) from appointed date of April 1, 2008.

Commenting on the progress of the refinery, RPL chairman Mukesh Ambani said, "The proposed merger with RIL will lead to a globally competitive and industry leading refinery business and create sustainable value for shareholders."

Shares of RPL on BSE gained 3% to close at Rs 110. The stock has gained 2% over the last one week and 23% in the last one month.

*******************************************

India's natural gas output to grow over 60% in FY10

India's natural gas production is expected to grow by over 60 per cent in the current fiscal on the back of higher output from Reliance Industries' eastern offshore KG basin block, an economic think-tank has said.

"In 2009-10, we expect domestic natural gas output to grow by a robust 60.5 per cent to 52,239 million cubic metres (mcm)," the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its April review.

"This is largely because of commencement of natural gas production from Reliance Industries' (RIL) Krishna Godavari basin," the CMIE said.

Cumulative domestic natural gas production during April-February 2008-09 was 30,019 million cubic metres, it said.

"For the same period, demand stood at 34,062 mcm. In 2008-09, natural gas output is expected to grow by a meagre 0.8 per cent to 32,529 mcm," CMIE said.

Mukesh Ambani-led RIL began production from its prolific D6 block on April 1 and currently produces 13 million standard cubic metre per day (mmscmd) of gas.

The initial 15.3 mmscmd output has already been committed to urea-making plants and volumes above this would go to gas-based power plants.

"This will help to meet the fast growing demand for natural gas in the country, especially from the fertiliser and power sectors," the CMIE said.







Source:Economic Times, Moneycontrol.com, BS etc...

19 April 2009

MOBILE REVOLUTION article from BT

The next 400 million

Though voice still remains the money spinner, telecom operators and handset makers are betting big on services to acquire the next 400 million customers. Kushan Mitra goes into the details.

COVER STORY
The next 400 million

Sitting in a small room, 250 km from Pune in the heart of rural Maharashtra, farmer Satish Jagtap swears by the daily price and weather updates that he gets from Nokia’s new MajhaNokia service. It saves him time and money. But can he rely on those numbers? “I trust the brand. Nokia is the Hero Honda of mobile phones, reliable. I bought their mobile phone because of this service.”

A thousand kilometres away, Aircel is launching its mobile services in Delhi. Sandip Das, CEO of parent Maxis Cellular, is clear about focus on service. Aircel’s TV promo features Indian cricket captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni using his handset to do deals on Yahoo and MakeMyTrip. Dhoni never puts the handset to his ear. “Offering reliable data services is how we will distinguish ourselves from the pack,” says Das.

Concurs D. Shivakumar, MD, Nokia India, which controls about 65 per cent of the handsets market here. “It does not matter if the service does not make too much money, it helps me put my product in the consumer’s hand.” Across India, the mobile revolution is passé by now and is just a matter of tracking the millions. (By the time you will be reading this, the number of mobile subscribers in India will have crossed 400 million, making it the world’s second-largest market.) But this very growth has put the fear of commoditisation into the hearts of the players. They need a differentiator. That differentiator is services.

Sending an SMS to a special number or downloading callertunes. Accessing e-mail or Googling with your phone. All these are termed services.

Voice will certainly remain the main revenue generator for operators, who are expected to earn a total of Rs 1,50,000 crore in 2008-09. Of this, services or non-voice revenues—SMSes, data subscriptions, caller ring-back tones et al—will fetch “only” around Rs 10,000 crore. Yet, services will be the driver by which handset vendors and operators will try and rise to the top of a very cloudy mixture.



Rural raga, urban pop
Nokia’s MeraNokia (Majha Nokia in Marathi) is actually a Nokia Life Tools (NLT) application coded into the 2300 and 2323 handsets being used in the pilot. Farmers and villagers pay around Rs 2 per day, every 10 days, for the latest on crop pricing, weather, farming tips, among other things. All this is freely available on the net for those with PCs and Internet access. For the farmers, the mobile is the PC.

Jagtap, a cereal farmer with a large landholding, explains that paying Rs 2 a day makes sense for him: “It saves me the hassle of making three, four, five phone calls that cost more, and occasionally even a bus journey. The prices are accurate …. But having health tips would be a nice touch.”

Jawahar Kantilal, Nokia’s Head for Emerging Market Services, is extremely bullish about these services. “The urban population is well represented in services, usually around the entertainment area,” says Kantilal. “The fastest growing market across India, Africa, China and Asia was in rural or non-urban areas and these subscribers needed unique services.”

He says entertainment is not the first concern of the rural consumer. The rural user wants to know: can the device help him in his livelihood?

“That is what we aimed at,” says Kantilal, who led the push for NLT. He says the Maharashtra pilot can be easily taken global, particularly in the next major growth area for mobility—sub-Saharan Africa. “People want…the device to improve their quality of life,” he says. And it isn’t just in rural areas that services are taking off. Ashok Thapa, a Delhi taxi-driver from Nepal who has spent the last decade in India, wonders why the mobile phone can’t be used for elections “just like how they vote in the singing contests on TV.” A liftman in a commercial building shows off his latest Samsung handset, which comes with the soundtrack of Aamir Khan’s Ghajini.

The mobile phone has moved from being a simple communication tool to an all-round entertainment and information device thanks to such services. “People will pay for a service which they find convenient and one that adds value to their device,” says Anshul Gupta, Principal Research Analyst for Mobiles at Gartner.

Balika Vadhu? Information Services Mobile Farmer
  • There could be problems for Mobile TV, because the rules around this are very fuzzy

  • Several rival technologies exist and one is even being piloted in Delhi (DVB-H)

  • Other systems where you can download and watch TV clips have had limited popularity

  • Broadcasters would also want a piece of the pie and make money off mobile TV
  • You can get everything from cricket scores to Bollywood gossip to random jokes with all these services costing between Rs 10-50 a month

  • These will be incremental revenues for all the operators and easily accessible by users, particularly the tech-savvy ones

  • The problem is that most of this information is available free for the users who know how to use the mobile Internet
  • Agricultural services may not be high-tech but can potentially be a big device sales driver

  • Farmers will get info on agricultural prices, local weather info based on their location

  • This service will also allow agri scientists to get crucial messages across to farmers on weather systems or practices

  • These services can be bundled with other services such as health tips, education (English learning) and entertainment (ringtones, videos, etc.)

18 April 2009

Mkts next week: Equities, commodities, bond outlook

Mkts next week: Equities, commodities, bond outlook


Last week, the Nifty ended the day below 3,400, amid huge volatility in the market. It is this volatile end, which will keep traders guessing going into next week.

Also Read: Weekly round-up: Experts see reduction in risk aversion

Though there wasn’t much to take away from the week, but the uptrend will continue. Markets currently have come to a very important juncture, which is the 200 day moving average. The market went that on a weekly basis, but closed below that level. That doesn’t mean much; it simply means that around the critical resistance level 3,400 or 3,500, which was the target for the Nifty, it has suddenly become volatile.

Traders will be guessing as they go into next week as the uptrend is still very much there and its not broken but a few more question marks have certainly have come to the fore at 3,500 Nifty.

Also Read: Volatility to keep traders guessing

Markets next week

Commenting on the outlook for markets next week Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor of CNBC-TV18, said, the intermediate uptrend is still on. It is just the volatility, which might just mix it up a little bit for the traders. There is a little bit of hesitation, which is creeping in above that 3,500 mark for the Nifty.

Markets have had a spectacular rally. The level of conviction in buying now at 3,500 to ride it higher from here that too three weeks before election result is probably just questioning traders a little bit and that is why one have seen this kind of two way movement.

Now volatility at important resistance points after very large moves is not the best thing to see. So one cannot say whether this will be a bigger re-tracement that the market is setting itself up for or this is the markets way of consolidating at an important level – 200 day moving average before it takes it out and goes on to higher levels from here.


I don’t know of the answer, but next week could be an important one in answering that question on whether we can consolidate here even if we have to give up a couple of 100-points on the Nifty and then keep our sights for higher levels on the Nifty. But it is the last couple of days of volatility, which changes things a little bit and makes it a little bit more interesting and less unidirectional that we have had for the last five-weeks.”


Trading ideas for next week


Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends said, “One largecap that you can consider is SAIL. SAIL has run-up like most other stocks. At Rs 110 there is an opportunity to hold it and look for gains over the next two or three years. This stock can easily dip to Rs 85-90, at which point you need to add a little bit to your holdings.


Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Company Limited (GNFC) is another stock that has run up. At Rs 68, the stock seems reasonable to buy, because there is a significant support at the Rs 60 area. So a decline should certainly stop there for a certain time. Risk is low and reasonable.”


Mitesh Thacker of miteshthacker.com said, “Among the largecap stocks, we believe that Sterlite Industries could be a good shot at the current market price. This stock has moved from the levels of Rs 240 to the high of Rs 420 and is now set to shed some of its skin. Short positions can take place at the current price with a stop above Rs 420, for price targets of Rs 360-340 in the near future.

We like Alok Textile a lot. We have seen good open interest additions in the future for this stock as well as the good delivery counters on the stock. We believe that the stock can test levels of Rs 19-20 in the next few weeks. Levels of Rs 15 and Rs 14.50 could be good levels to enter the stock with a stoploss below Rs 14.”


E Mathew of Mathew Easow Fiscal Services said, “The stock that has shown excellent breakout in the charts is Core Projects. Of course it is a very good trading opportunity. I would suggest a strong buy on Core Projects with a stoploss of Rs 85-87. The minimum target for this move is Rs 150.

Axis Bank has also shown a good breakout from past Rs 475. The stock is now setting up for a target of Rs 550-575. So in Axis Bank, buy on declines strategy, keeping a stoploss at Rs 470-475, would be good looking for a target of 550-575.


F&O strategy for next week

Karun Mutha, VP-Risk and Arbitrage Trades, Investsmart, said, “The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been cumulatively on a long bias on the Nifty futures to almost Rs 2,500 crore. We have seen good support coming from the 3,300 level. 3,300 put option has seen a huge buildup of 50 lakh units on the Nifty. This is going to act as a good support for the market. At the higher side we have seen call writing taking place at 3500-3600 level. Till the Nifty is between this range of 3300-3500, you would see some consolidation happening and beyond that some short covering happening which would take us up to higher levels on the Nifty.”


Money Markets

Latha Venkatesh, Associate Editor- Financial Markets of CNBC-TV18 said, in the run up to the credit policy in the first three-weeks of April, one saw a huge rally in the bond markets. It was not entirely dictated by expectation of rate cut, but largely because of the huge liquidity in the system and lack of any credible opportunities to put that money. Corporate bond yields are also crashing; there isn’t so much of a credit demand either in the system and no fears on the part of banks that they will have to mark-to-market. The end of the quarter is very far away. So there is huge investment in bonds coming from bankers.

Part of it is also driven by the hope last week that on Tuesday the RBI could cut repo rates and reverse repo rates further. It is not a unanimous expectation at all – just spilt down the middle – in fact may be a slightly smaller minority is expecting a rate cut. But even if there is no rate cut, the expectation is not that yields are going to jump. If there is a cut, then one can see the 10-year yield falling from 6.4% last week to may be 6.25%, but if there is no rate cut may be it will linger around 6.40-6.50%, but not really expected to rise much at all. That’s primarily because there is so much of liquidity in the system. So basically going into credit policy with a very bullish frame of mind and that bullishness is not really expected to peter out much even if that rate cut doesn’t come.

Commodities next week

Manisha Gupta, Commodities Editor, CNBC-TV18, said, it has been a very eventful week in the sense of commodities – more in terms of news than price action. The maximum news or the buzzing news was coming in case of agro commodities and sugar in that sense where the government has yet again come out with more steps to rein in prices.

We asked our participants in the commodities poll whether the government would be able to control sugar prices with the recent steps for a longer time.

Can government control sugar prices for a long period?

a) No 60%

b) Yes 30%

c) Can't Say 10%

CNBC-TV18 POLL

View on sugar prices for next week

a) Between Rs 2150-2300 50%

b) Between Rs 2000-2100 40%

c) Break Below Rs 2000 10%

CNBC-TV18 POLL

Good level to buy gold?

a) $860 25%

b) $850 35%

c) $810-830 40%

CNBC-TV18 POLL

Decline in metals an opportunity to buy?

a) Yes 40%

b) No 40%

c) Can't Say 20%




Source:Moneycontrol.com

11 April 2009

RIL expected to be top gas producer in 3 yrs

RIL expected to be top gas producer in 3 yrs


RIL expected to be top gas producer in 3 yrs
BS Reporter / Mumbai April 11, 2009, 0:44 IST

Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries (RIL) could overtake state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Oil India to account for over 40 per cent of the country’s natural gas production in the next three years, say analysts.


Supply from RIL’s Krishna Godavari basin reserve on the east coast began on April 2. The initial production will be around 14 million standard cubic metres per day (mscmd), which would go to the urea units of fertiliser firms.

If production steps up as anticipated, the present market share of ONGC and OIL will drop from 65 per cent now to around 30 per cent in the next three years. While liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports would come down from the present 25 per cent of all supply to around 15 per cent, says Ajay Arora, Partner, Ernst and Young.

The country’s gas mainly comes from the western offshore fields and the balance from Gujarat and the North-Eastern states.

In December 2006, ONGC announced that it had found an estimated 21 to 22 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas in the Krishna Godavari basin. The company also announced another find in 2006 in the Mahanadi basin, off the coast of Orissa, with an estimated 3 to 4 tcf reserves in place. In addition, in August 2008, the company made four new finds in a another block in the same basin.

State-owned Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) holds an estimated 1.8 tcf of natural gas reserves in the Krishna Godavari area, a substantial holding for the company.

However, analysts maintain that these finds by ONGC and GSPC would take time to come on stream, which would be beneficial for RIL. “Most of the gas finds so far have been from the New Exploration Licensing Policy (Nelp) I and III rounds. Thus, ONGC and RIL would emerge as the prominent players in future. However, while RIL could be the leading domestic supplier, it does not mean it has monopoly over pricing. The regulator will take care of the consumer’s interest,” said a senior analyst.


Src:Business-Standard