Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 23.11.2009

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 23.11.2009

This(Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls) will be a New Initiative of this blog to Publish Blog Author's Own Investment/Trading Calls for Short-Medium Term perspective. But All these Calls are not given on Purely Technical perspective. Most of these Calls are given by Blog Author from His past Investment/Trading experiences. So Do not expect More depth in Calls. Author has tried his best to give some calls for the benefit of Investors/Traders from his experience and from some media/web/news based call. So author request all the investors/traders to take/try these Calls as RISK CALLS. And Keep Strict Stop Loss Own (or) Keep Resi,Supp levels As Stop Loss for their Trading(or) Trade/Invest @ your Own Financial Risk. All type of Comments are Welcome about this New Initiative. Dont Forget to Keep Stop Loss and Again Author Remembering you that he is giving calls only from his past trading experience...


Nifty Future cmp 5066

Premium of +13 pts over spot price... Nifty Future Previous recent highs(last week) are at 5073-5074-5079... So NFut may face stiff resi @ this zone.... Further resi @ 5105-5114-5122 levels.... Supports are at 5030-5012-4978 levels...

As long As NFut holds 5010-5030 level, then Nifty will be in uptrend....



Allahabad Bank: cmp 140

Stock has hit year high on Friday... THis stoks has potential to go upto 156-170 levels in Medium term.... Buy With Strict StopLoss at 126 levels....



ICICIBank: cmp 897

ICICI Bank struggles to cross 920-927 levelss.... Until this level crosses, ICICI Stock may be in weaker Side.... Supports are at 874-855 levels....


HDIL cmp 338

Stock down nearly 10 percent from recent high... Supports at 331-326-315 levels... Keep 315-318 as Strict StopLoss and Go LONG... Resi @ 383-390 levels....



UCO Bank: cmp 59.60

Stock has good supp @ 53-50 levels... Go LONG this Stock with 53 as Strict StopLoss...



MaxIndia cmp 209

Stock has breached Stiff resi @ 205 levels after a long time.... Next supprts are at 190-185 levels... Keep 190-185 as StopLoss and Go LONG... Its for a Mediumterm Recommendation.




Keep Strict StopLoss in All trades.... This willl be a Good Practice to All....

Outlook Profit 100

Outlook Profit 100

India’s most financially stable and capital efficient companies

Rajesh Padmashali

	Profit 100 Listing
	Profit 100 Ranking: Alphabetical
	Methodology

***************************************************************1 Praj Industries

With crude at $79 and threatening to head lower, order-flow for machines that make bio-ethanol could slump. The company delivered blockbuster net profit numbers till last year as rising viability of alternate fuels ensured a wild rush towards green energy. The last reported order-book was Rs 800 crore with exports having a 35 per cent share.

4 Oil Country Tubular

Exports contributed about Rs 209 crore out of the Rs 422 crore topline in FY2009 on the back of the then boom in oil and gas exploration. In H1 of 2010, the drill pipe manufacturer has already clocked sales of Rs 200 crore against the planned Rs 325 crore.

11 AllCargo Global

The country’s biggest multi-modal services operator has private equity goliath Blackstone among its biggest investors. The slowdown in the export-import trade led to operating cash flows falling by 25 per cent in FY2009. Sustaining margins going forward will be a function of the robustness in global economic activity.

20 Sun TV Network

In South India it has a dominant presence in almost all the markets that it is present. Its regional positioning also protects it as that space is the last hit, when advertising spends are pared in a downturn. Greater focus on increasing non-advertising revenue (currently
40 per cent) via its DTH venture will keep this gravy train going.

21 GlaxoSmithkline Pharma

The product patent regime could see this multinational get aggressive with new product launches. For now, the company has passed onto consumers the reduction in
excise duty. Reduction in input costs as well as retention of duty cuts could sustain improved net sales. For H1 of CY09, net sales were up 9 per cent year on year at Rs 915 crore.

Click here for large table 1-25

23 Sterlite

The company is banking on its planned expansion in aluminum and zinc for an encore of the performance that it has delivered during the last boom. The acquisition hunt backed by balance sheet strength continues even as it grapples with delays in commissioning
its Orissa power plant. Among the best placed metal players to capitalise on any sustained global economic recovery.

29 Nava Bharat Ventures

For this diversified player, while the planned capacity expansion from 228 MW to 600 MW in the merchant power business will drive growth, the strain in ferro alloys and minor contribution of sugar division to the bottomline could refl ect in declining return ratios.

33 Colgate Palmolive

Low priced packs have enabled it to get a substantial share of the 35 per cent of all toothpaste sales that happen in rural India. Saving cream, soaps and shower gels still play second fiddle to toothpaste and brushes that deliver 90 per cent of revenue. Profitability could be under pressure due to slowing volume growth, loss of tax shelter and

37 Asian Paints

This decorative segment leader is further increasing its distribution reach through its Colour World outlets. Margins have improved in the international business primarily due to fall in inputs costs. Very strong brand equity enables it to pass on reasonable price hikes onto the end-user when required.

More on this: http://www.outlookprofit.com/article.aspx?262773

Source: OutLook Profit

Reliance offering about $12 bn for Lyondell: Sources

Reliance offering about $12 bn for Lyondell: Sources

Reliance Industries is offering about USD 12 billion to buy a controlling interest in bankrupt chemical company LyondellBasell Industries to create one of the largest petrochemical firms in the world, two sources with direct knowledge of the deal said.

"The offer is in the vicinity of about USD 10 billion to USD 12 billion," one source said, while another said it was around the upper end of the band. The two sources declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to the media.

Related News LyondellBasell says receives offer from Reliance RIL offers to buy Dutch company LyondellBasell RSS feed for news Click here

The deal, if closed, will make it one of the largest overseas acquisitions by an Indian company. In 2007, Tata Steel bought Anglo-Dutch Corus steel maker for USD 13 billion.

On Saturday LyondellBasell said Indian energy giant Reliance Industries has made a non-binding cash offer to buy a controlling interest and the offer represented a potential alternative to its previously filed reorganisation plan to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Reliance said it had made a preliminary non-binding offer to acquire, for cash, a controlling interest in LyondellBasell upon its emergence from Chapter 11.

"The offer is preliminary and subject to customary conditions including conduct of due diligence, documentation and receipt of sufficient creditor support," it said.

Both Reliance and LyondellBasell did not disclose the size of the offer in their statements.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is among the advisors for Reliance, they said.

Reliance, India's largest conglomerate, has been looking to expand, taking advantage of low valuations to delve into international markets.

The company is aiming to attain global scale for its conventional energy platform -- petrochemicals, refining and oil and gas exploration -- and invest in its new businesses such as retailing and alternative energy, chairman Mukesh Ambani said this week at the company's annual meeting of shareholders.

In September, Reliance raised about USD 660 million in a share sale that analysts said was likely to help the firm make acquisitions.

It has USD 4 billion in cash, USD 8billion in treasury stock that can be sold and if it doubles its current net debt-to-equity of 0.35x it can borrow another USD 10 billion, Macquarie said in a recent research note.

Luxembourg-based LyondellBasell filed for bankruptcy protection in January, unable to meet its debt obligations after demand dropped for petrochemicals products during the global economic downturn.

The company, owned by investor Len Blavatnik through New York-based Access Industries, took on billions of dollars of debt obligations when an Access Industries-led group bought the company in 2007.

Src: Moneycontrol.com

***********************************************************

Other Articles:

Reliance offering about $12 bn for Lyondell: Sources

Investing in gold may no longer be safeInvesting in gold may no longer be safe

Betting big on India: Stock market better option than gold & crude

ICICI, Infosys among best firms for nurturing talent

D-Street to remain volatile; dance to global tunes: Analysts

Src: Economictimes.Indiatimes.com

ICICI Bank, HUL among world's best firms for leaders

ICICI Bank, HUL among world's best firms for leaders

NEW YORK: Indian private sector lender ICICI Bank and global consumer goods giant Unilever's India-based subsidiary have been named in a list of

Top 10 richest in India New teen CEOs Meet the Gen Y CEOs India's top 10 business houses

world's 10 best companies for leaders.

The list, compiled by business magazine Fortune, is topped by global technology giant IBM. Proctor & Gamble has been ranked second, followed by General Mills and McKinsey at third and fourth position respectively.

Fortune said the list has been compiled by ranking the most successful businesses that are the best at developing employee talent.

With a revenue of $7.4 billion and 36,335 employees, ICICI Bank has been ranked at the fifth position. Hindustan Unilever, the Indian arm of Unilever, has been ranked 10th.

About ICICI Bank the magazine said, "ICICI doesn't just have recruiters trolling for talent outside of the company; it also has 600 employees who act as talent scouts internally, identifying coworkers with leadership potential."

Also Read

→ India's riche-rich club topples their Chinese counterparts

→ Bharti airtel is the strongest corporate brand

→ India's buzziest brands: The Drucker Renaissance

→ RIL again tops valuable brands chart

The internal recruiters tap 5,000 candidates a year, adding that these trainees are the only employees who get company stock options, the magazine said.

Hindustan Unilever, which has 15,000 employees, likes to think of itself as a talent factory. And with more than 1,000 alumni sitting on boards globally, it can certainly make a strong case for that, the magazine said.





Other Stories

• RIL again tops valuable brands chart
• India's buzziest brands: The Drucker Renaissance
• Methodology: How firms jumped on brandwagon
• Bharti airtel is the strongest corporate brand
• India Inc keeps its brand value intact

Src: Economictimes.com

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 20.11.2009

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 20.11.2009

This(Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls) will be a New Initiative of this blog to Publish Blog Author's Own Investment/Trading Calls for Short-Medium Term perspective. But All these Calls are not given on Purely Technical perspective. Most of these Calls are given by Blog Author from His past Investment/Trading experiences. So Do not expect More depth in Calls. Author has tried his best to give some calls for the benefit of Investors/Traders from his experience and from some media/web/news based call. So author request all the investors/traders to take/try these Calls as RISK CALLS. And Keep Strict Stop Loss Own (or) Keep Resi,Supp levels As Stop Loss for their Trading(or) Trade/Invest @ your Own Financial Risk. All type of Comments are Welcome about this New Initiative. Dont Forget to Keep Stop Loss and Again Author Remembering you that he is giving calls only from his past trading experience...


Nifty Future: cmp 4986

Short-term uptrend only above 5030-5040 levels.... Major Resi @ 5080 levels...
Supports at 437-4925-4905 levels..... If 4927 broken then could see another 30-50 pts down....


Pratibha cmp 240

Stock has supprt at 234... Buy at that levels and Go Long with 226 as Strict StopLoss.....


Reliance cmp 2080

RIL has resi @ 2128-2137 levels... Uptrend only above 2137 levels... Supports at 2070-2044-2026 levels..


Rajesh Exports cmp 81.30

Stock Looks rangebound between the range 75-90 levels.... If Stock crosses 87-88 levels then could see 93-97 range soon.... This is a Very very volatile Stock... Keep this in Mind and Keep Strict StopLoss....


DLF cmp 366

DLF struggles to cross 385-390 levels... Supp at 365-358-353 levels.... If breaks 353 may fall further... Upside only above 385-390 levels..




Keep Strict StopLoss in Trades.....


By

Srisai

Mukesh Ambani is richest Indian

Mukesh Ambani is richest Indian

A rebounding stock market that gained two-thirds in the past year and an economy growing at 6% have boosted the net worth of India’s richest people, according to the latest Forbes’ India Rich List.

The combined net worth of India’s 100 richest people is USD 276 billion, almost a quarter of the country’s GDP.

Last year, there were only 27 billionaires on the India Rich List. This year, the number has almost doubled to 52—two short of what India had at the peak of the stock market boom in 2007.

The head of Reliance Industries, Mukesh Ambani, is once again the wealthiest person in India. His net worth is put at $32 billion, an increase of 54% from nearly USD 21 billion last year.

Trailing behind him are Lakshmi Mittal with a net worth of USD 30 billion, up 46% from USD 20.5 billion, and Mukesh’s estranged brother, Anil, whose net worth of USD 17.5 billion, 40%, higher than before, put him in the third place.

Naazneen Karmali, India Editor of Forbes Asia and Mumbai bureau manager for Forbes magazine, said, “Happy days are definitely back again for India's richest. This year's list shows yet again that when conditions in the financial markets and the economy are right, India has the scale and resources to produce billionaires faster than most of the countries on earth.”

Indrajit Gupta, Editor of Forbes India, said, “The substantial jump in net worth is clear evidence that entrepreneurial capitalism is alive and kicking in India. What’s more, the growth in wealth creation has been broad-based. Entrepreneurs from a wide variety of sectors comprise the list.”

Though the top ten positions remain largely unchanged, there are some shifts in fortunes across the list. Sunil Mittal has moved down from Number 4 to Number 8 and Azim Premji has moved up to Number 4 position. The Ruia brothers with a net worth of USD 13.6 billion have made it to number 5 this year. Adi Godrej has moved out of the top 10 to the number 12 position. Savitri Jindal, Nonexecutive Chairwoman of OP Jindal Group, at a net worth of USD 12 billion this year has made it to number 7 on the list – she is one of only six women on the list.

The richest newcomers are two brothers from Torrent Power -- Sudhir and Samir Mehta, ranked 23 at USD 2.02 billion.

Another notable mention is Nandan Nilekani who has stepped down from Infosys board and is now a part of government. He ranks 43 with a net worth of USD 1.25 billion. Southern India’s TV king, Kalanithi Maran, ranked 20, almost doubled his net worth to USD 2.3 billion from USD 1.2 billion. His Sun TV Network operates in four states in the south, a region that accounts for one-quarter of India’s population and one-third of those with television in their homes. Forbes Asia features a cover story on Maran.

The Forbes India cover story highlights how 2009 has been a turnaround year for the rich in India. The list is an indicator of how India’s billionaires have done better than their counterparts in other parts of the world. The story highlights interesting differences between the rich in India and China. The 100 richest Indians are worth USD 276 billion; their Chinese counterparts have a net worth of USD 170 billion.

The three richest Indians are worth USD 79.5 billion. It takes 24 Chinese billionaires to be worth USD 80 billion.

The top 10 richest in India are:

1. Mukesh Ambani USD 32 billion

2. Lakshmi Mittal USD 30 billion

3. Anil Ambani USD 17.5 billion

4. Azim Premji USD 14.9 billion

5. Shashi and Ravi Ruia USD 13.6 billion

6. KP Singh USD 13.5 billion

7. Savitri Jindal USD 12 billion

8. Sunil Mittal USD 8.2 billion

9. Kumar Birla USD 7.8 billion

10. Gautam Adani USD 6.4 billion

Methodology

Net worths are compiled using stock prices and exchange rates taken on October 16.

Privately held fortunes were valued at book value or by coupling estimates of revenues, profits or book value to prevailing ratios for similar public companies

To compile these rankings, reporters interviewed rich listers, employees, rivals, investors, fund managers, real estate agents and securities analysts. They also sifted through documents and databases to determine value and ownership of assets.

Indian citizenship was required to make it to the list.

Unlike Forbes’ global billionaire rankings, India’s richest ranking includes some family fortunes...
********************************************

Other Stories

Mukesh Ambani is richest Indian

• Obama tops Forbes list of world`s most powerful people

Top 10 richest in India

Ambani brothers, Mittal in Forbes' list of richest Indians

JFE Steel`s stake buy in JSW a win-win for all: Experts


Src: ET, Moneycontrol

Technicals, Stock Reports for the Week

Multiple tops suggest short-term correction

In the past three sessions, the market has tested 5,015 and pulled back.

The market made net gains before running into strong resistance. The Nifty closed at 4,998.95 points for a gain of 4.2 per cent while the Sensex was up 4.3 per cent at 16,848 points. The Defty gained 5.1 per cent as the rupee strengthened again.

Both sets of institutional investors were net buyers through the past week. Advances outnumbered declines and volumes were good in both cash and derivatives segment. The BSE 500 rose 3.9 per cent suggesting good retail participation.

Outlook: The market faces massive resistance above 5,000 and it failed to pierce that last week. The pattern suggests short-term bearishness, or range-trading, with the Nifty moving between 4,850-5,050. A breakout in either direction would lead to a move of 150-200 points. The intermediate trend is unclear.

Rationale: In the past three sessions, the market has tested 5,015 and pulled back. Multiple tops have bearish short-term implications. There's solid support down to 4,850 and further down, till 4,700. On the upside, a breakout above 5,050 could push the market to a new 2009 high.

The intermediate trend went negative on October 20, reacting from the peak of 5,181. It bottomed on November 3 at a low of 4,538 and has since moved back to 5,000 levels. The 13.5 per cent pull back is ample in dimensions but the time period of barely two weeks is very short. The current range-trading could breakout in either direction.

Counterview: If the market stays above 4,538 in the next correction, the pattern would be higher lows and positive. A strongly bullish long-term trend has been in force since March and this makes it possible that a 2-3 week correction period is enough. A pattern of higher highs above 5,181 would confirm that the intermediate trend has gone bullish again.

Bulls & bears: The IT sector was surprisingly strong despite the rupee rising to 46.5. The CNXIT jumped 6.1 per cent. A reaction was seen on Friday in Educomp and Satyam but Moser Baer and TCS looked strong. Banks also bounced back with the Bank Nifty up 4.9 per cent.

Metals were another group that did reasonably well with both ferrous and non-ferrous stocks being strongly supported. Sugar continued its bull run with less fancied counters like Dhampur in the limelight.

Real estate continued to look weak though most real estate are sitting near good supports and some may be due for a revival. Many PSUs such as Neyveli Lignite Corporation, NMDC, SCI and GAIL saw volume expansions and price increases. Two depressed cyclical sectors - automobiles and shipping - also saw selective buying interest.

MICRO TECHNICALS

IDFC
Current Price: Rs 171.25
Target Price: Rs 180

The stock has made a breakout to a new high on increased volumes. On the basis of the chart pattern, it has a target projection of around Rs 180-185. There's no price history in this zone so error margins are more. Keep a trailing stop at Rs 165 and go long. Move the stop up 5 points for every Rs 5 rise.

IVRCL
Current Price: Rs 410.5
Target Price: Rs 430

The stock has made an upside breakout on high volumes and it is testing resistance close to its 2009 highs. It has the potential to cross Rs 430 and create a new high if the volume pattern is maintained. Keep a stop between Rs 400-405 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 420.

PARSVNATH DEVELOPERS
Current Price: Rs 116.75
Target Price: Rs 100

The stock has made a recovery from a recent low of Rs 92. However, it is now running into high resistance. It could react again and go into a range-trading pattern between support at Rs 100 and resistance at Rs 120. Keep a stop at Rs 120 and go short. Increase the position below Rs 112 and clear the position below Rs 102.

SAIL
Current Price: Rs 182.3
Target Price: Rs 195

The stock has made a small breakout past resistance at Rs 180. It could test the 2009 highs of Rs 195-197 at least on intra-day basis since there is little resistance in-between. Keep a stop at Rs 180 and go long. Start covering the position above Rs 193.

SHIPPING CORPORATION
Current Price: Rs 145.9
Target Price: Rs 170

The stock is testing resistance at Rs 150 and if it closes above that mark, a target of Rs 170 is possible. Keep a trailing stop at Rs 140 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 150 and move the stop loss up to Rs 145. At Rs 160, book 50 per cent profit and move the stop loss to Rs 155.

Early signs of a recovery

Riding on the rally

Markets at a glance

Analysts' corner

High carryover in range-bound market

Gold rallies as dollar falls

	Wkly Tech Analysis: Resistance seen around 16,940
-	Kirloskar Bros raises stake in four firms
-	Shoppers Stop gets board's nod for raising funds
-	Nifty may hit new high this week
-	Resistance seen around 16,940

*****************************************
Top 5 Picks |

Mid-term Picks |

Staying above 4900 level crucial for Nifty

No clear direction on stock indices seen this week

Check out the top 10 capital goods stocks

*******************************************

Weekly Newsletter - Nov 16 2009

GSPL, Dish TV, India Economy

ONGC

DLF Limited

Mahindra Ugine

Src: Economictimes, Business-Standard, Deadpresident Blog

Nifty may rebound from 4900

Nifty may rebound from 4900

he Nifty was under pressure on Thursday, as it failed to move past the previous day’s high. Even as the Nifty lost about 1%, November futures closed with a small premium to the underlying index, while the stocks futures added 1.2 crore shares in the open interest, indicating that the decline was a result of liquidation. One interesting development, as on Thursday’s close, is that the near-to-medium term daily DMAs are spread across a breadth of 4900-4912.

While such a convergence points to a strong support at that level, the future crossover between these averages will be crucial for determining the market direction in the near future. At this juncture, however, two scenarios look possible. First, if a positive crossover happens between 5-DMA with both 20- and 50-DMA respectively, it could give a bullish push to the Nifty.

However, if a negative crossover between the 20- and 50-DMA emerges, it could intensify the downward pressure on the Nifty. However, a rebound from 4900 looks more likely, given that the November 4900 puts have gained close to 35 lakh shares in open interest in the past four trading sessions.

STOCKS F & O

ITC is trapped in a range of Rs 241-265 since mid-October. The downside is supported by a trendline joining the stock’s lows since June 2009. Post its decline on Thursday, the stock has closed below both its 10- and 20-DMA, which are near 255. As long as the upside remains capped around Rs 255-260, the stock can move back to Rs 240.


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Top five Picks

Mid-term Picks

What to watch out for

Infosys eyes US insurance market with $38 mn buy

• Nifty to cross 5300 soon: Anil Manghnani
• 'Investment should be stock specific not index specific'
• Buy and hold Welspun Gujarat with stoploss of Rs 275: Nirmal Bang

*****************************************
Src: Economictimes.Indiatimes.com

September IIP up 9.1 per cent year/year: Government

September IIP up 9.1 per cent year/year: Government

EW DELHI: Industrial output rose at a faster-than-expected 9.1 per cent in September from a year earlier, data showed on Top 10 challenges for India Thursday. The median forecast in a media poll was for an annual rise of 7.3 per cent. Manufacturing production rose 9.3 per cent in September from a year earlier. August's annual industrial growth rate was revised up to 11 per cent from 10.4 per cent previously. Industrial output rose 2.6 percent in the 2008/09 fiscal year (April-March), down from 8.5 per cent in 2007/08. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 2 basis points after industrial data came in better than market expectations. The yield on the 10-year benchmark bond rose to 7.36 per cent from 7.34 per cent before the data. At 12:11 pm it was trading at 7.35 per cent. It closed at 7.33 per cent on Wednesday.

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Other Stories:

• FDI inflows dip to $1.5 bn in Sept
• Export shrinks slower at 11.4%
• Indirect tax collections drop 13% to Rs 25,495 cr in Oct
• Strong IIP data adds to stimulus debate
• Food price index rises 13.68 pct year/year October 31

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Sept IIP up 9.1%; Experts cheer data but differ on upgrades

he Index of Industrial Productivity for September is up 9.1% as compared to 11% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year. A CNBC-TV18 poll had seen it up 7.14% as against 10.4%.

The August IIP number has been revised to 11% as against the provisional number of 10.4%. Industrial growth in the April-September period grew by 6.5% as against 5% YoY. Also see: Markets volatile, recovers post IIP data

Consumer durables and capital goods were the key contributors to the upmove.

IIP movement in 2009	Numbers
April	1.1%
May	2.1%
June	8.2%
July	7.2%
August	11%
September	9.1%
Sectoral Growth	September	August
Manufacturing	9.3%	10.2%
Minning & Quarrying	8.6%	12.9%
Electricity	7.9%	10.6%
Use Based	September	August
Basic Goods	6.7%	10%
Intermediate Goods	10.8%	14.3%
Capital Goods	12.8%	8.3%
Consumer Goods	8.2%	8.5%
Durables	22.2%	22.3%
Non-Durables	2.6%	3.7%

CNBC-TV18’s Banking Editor Latha Venkatesh says these numbers are for a pre-Diwali month. “One may want to revise their figures and wait for the October number to check out whether the demand pool has remained even after the Diwali de-stocking and re-stocking. That might be something which analysts will want to weight before they work out their final numbers.”

So, will economists plan to upwardly revise most of their IIP numbers? Yes, says Samiran Chakrabarty, Standard Chartered Bank’s Head of Research. “If one looks at the last three months, on an average we are clocking numbers which are even better than what we did in the peak of industrial boom.”

But Sachchidanand Shukla, Chief Economist, Enam, is convinced yet. "We are seeing continuing traction in consumer durables because of the government dole outs or the sixth pay commission. We have a favourable base till December. We also need to see what happens to the basic and intermediate goods, which constitutes about 60% of the index. With export numbers now moving up, the contraction is now getting narrower. By January, we should turn positive on the export side. So, we will have to wait for the next two months to revise our numbers upwards. We believe the second half is going to be more than 9%."

GDP forecast for FY10:

Chakrabarty maintains the 6.4% GDP number for FY10. "Going forward, we will probably look at revising it after this industrial growth numbers." Enam, Shukla says, is looking at a 6.3% number. But he won't revise the figure upwards till December.

Is a rate hike on the cards?

Shukla sees the Reserve Bank hiking the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by December and cites three triggers to bolster his case. "One, if prices don't come off till December. Second, the base will boost the IIP numbers till December. If that trend continues, it will be another trigger. Third, will be capital flows which keep gushing into the economy. If all these three parameters are positive, the RBI will have to react on the liquidity front by a CRR hike by December. But for policy rates they will have to wait and watch till March."

No, says Chakrabarty. "I don't see it happening in December. This is very odd year in which year-on-year comparisons should be kept aside. This is not a year to look at those numbers. This is a year to look at softer issues in the economy, not just the domestic economy but also at a global sense to figure out whether this recovery that we are seeing is on a sound footing or not. The exit of monetary stimulus should take into account all those softer issues also – not just headline numbers – before taking a final decision. I think the RBI would probably wait a while to exit from an interest rate sense. From a liquidity sense, the exit could come much earlier."

Src: EconomicTimes, Moneycontrol.com