Nifty likely to face resistance at 5300

Nifty likely to face resistance at 5300

December could be the fourth-straight month where the market may continue to be in range, as depicted by options data for that particular month

Top 5 picks of the day Where are mkts headed? Check dividend yield Switch fund & realign

barring past few days in October.

Positional range for the Nifty seems to be 4800 on the lower side and 5200-5300 on the higher side. The 5000 put has a maximum build-up, but we believe it’s more of buying and we don’t assign more than psychological weightage to it.

The build-up in 5300 call option, of late, indicates call buying, as implied volatility for the same is around 21% and such low IVs in this long expiry (December 31, 2009) indicates the same. Buying of FIIs in index option also supports the argument. Very rarely, in the history of this market, we have seen the market crashing significantly from its highs if the market spends time near the highs in the form of consolidation as we are doing now. Otherwise, falls are immediate and furious.

Against this backdrop, we would suggest buying at-the-money or slightly out-of-money calls of the Nifty, as indices likely to breach the much-talked about resistance zone of 5180-5200. Having said that, it won’t be a run away rally. The new resistance for the Nifty will be 5300.

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So, if the market consolidates in a narrow range, then it will be midcaps which will gather attention. In fact, it has already started. Case in point: Banking and IT. Large caps are consolidating, but mid-caps are showing significant price as well as open interest appreciation. Among large caps, Reliance Industries’ 1080, 1095 and 1110 calls have seen substantial build-up, and we believe this congestion zone is resistance for the stock.

Bharti Airtel has rallied from lower levels predominantly, because of short-covering. Call writing in 320 call suggests upside is limited. BHEL has good support around 2170-2180 levels and good shorts standing in it. We expect short-covering to take place.

By - Siddarth Bhamre, Fund Manager-Derivatives, Angel Broking

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Top 5 picks of the day I Mid-term picks I Where are mkts headed?

Bull's Eye: Yes Bank, Mahindra Satyam, Tata Motors, Bajaj Hindustan, Nestle


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Reaction from double top

he market tested the 2009 high and corrected last week. The Nifty closed out at 5,108.9 points for a week-on-week gain of 3.4 per cent while the Sensex was up 2.8 per cent at 17,101 points. The Defty gained 4.5 per cent as the rupee hardened sharply.

Advances outnumbered declines and breadth in terms of traded shares was good. But volumes were on the low side of average in both cash and derivatives markets. The FIIs were net buyers while domestic institutions sold in small quantities. The BSE 500 rose 3.9 per cent while the Midcaps were up 5.3 per cent. The Junior was also up over 5 per cent.

Outlook: The market tested the 2009 high of 5,181 and reacted from that level. This is a double-top, which has short-term negative significance. A reaction clearly started on Thursday and Friday. There’s good support above 5,000 and the reaction may end there. The long-term trend and intermediate trends both seem positive.

Rationale: Although the double-top suggests resistance at 5,181 is very strong, the week saw a breakout that established a pattern of higher highs. Coupled to higher lows in the past fortnight, this indicates strongly that the intermediate trend is positive. The long-term trend still appears to be climbing, given a rising 200-day moving average.

Counter-view: Opinions differ on the persistence and strength of a double-top pattern. If the double-top causes just a short-term correction, support will come in just below current levels. However, this was a major top in that 5,181 was a 52-week high. So the correction may have deeper or more long-term implications. If the market closes below 5,000, we will probably see another bout of range-trading between 4,800-5,000.

Bulls & Bears: Friday saw a reaction and the market closed towards the lower end of the day’s trading range. Sectors which appeared to be hard hit included banks and real estate companies – these sectors had both gained strongly in tandem before the correction started. Until the reaction bottoms out, banking and realestate are likely to lose more ground than the Nifty. The engineering, power sector and auto stocks appeared to be weak as well but the trends there were more mixed. For example, GMR Infra gained on Friday, while IVRCL lost and these two normally move together.

The pharma sector seems to be quite strong, with many stocks such as Cipla, Glenmark, Divi’s and Torrent gaining substantially. There was also a lot of interest in media stocks with NDTV, TV-18 and of course, the new listing, Reliance Media World generating huge volumes. Some short-covering is taking place in the beaten-down telecom sector where Idea might outperform in the next couple of sessions.

MICRO TECHNICALS

CIPLA
Current Price: Rs 358.95
Target Price: Rs NA

The stock has been bullish since mid-March when it was trading at around Rs 200. The slope of the rise has got steeper and volumes have expanded in the past week. Impossible to project targets since it is in new territory. Keep a trailing stop at Rs 350 and go long. Raise the stop 10 points for a 10-point rise.

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POLARIS SOFT
Current Price: Rs 181.25
Target Price: Rs 174

The stock has started a high-volume reaction from a recent 52-week peak. It is likely to pull back till support at around the Rs 174 level. Keep a stop at Rs 183 and go short. Cover the position below Rs 175. The long-term trend is strongly bullish. Consider reversing the position (double-plus) at Rs 174 when the reaction ends.

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ESSAR OIL
Current Price: 145.45
Target Price: Rs 160

The stock has seen gains from support at around Rs 132. It has also seen volume expansion. There’s strong resistance at Rs 150 but that is a minimum target on the bounce. There is potential for Rs 160 to be achieved. Keep a stop at Rs 143 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 150.

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TUBE INVESTMENTS
Current Price: Rs 70.2
Target Price: Rs 80

The stock has shot up on huge volume expansion. It has been hitting resistance at above current levels. If it clears Rs 72-74, it would be at a new high with a target of about Rs 80-85. Keep a trailing stop loss at Rs 67 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 73 and move the stop up 5 units for every 5 unit gain.

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AXIS BANK
Current Price: Rs 1,027
Target Price: Rs 990

The stock has support at Rs 1,000-1,010 and that is one possible target. If Rs 1,000 is broken, it could fall to Rs 980. Keep a stop at Rs 1,040 and go short. Partially cover between Rs 1,000-1010. Clear the position below Rs 990.

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Volume gains 07-DEC-09 For the first time since taking over Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) in June last year, Tata Motors returned to profitability at the consolidated level.

Seeking new funds 07-DEC-09 Mutual fund houses are aiming to raise money at a time when the existing equity funds are finding it tough to cope with low inflows and redemption pressure.

Healthy gains for Smart Portfolios 07-DEC-09 The markets rose steadily for the better part of the week on news of robust GDP numbers and allaying of fears on the Dubai repayment crisis.

Markets at a glance 07-DEC-09 Key benchmark indices surged as India’s economy expanded at higher than the expected rate of 7.9 per cent for October.

Gold falls the most in a year 07-DEC-09 Gold dropped the most in a year as a rising dollar prompted some investors to sell bullion on the heels of a rally to an all-time high.

Trading focus on the near-term 07-DEC-09 A northwards breakout early in the week was followed by a correction.

Reaction from double top 07-DEC-09 The market tested the 2009 high and corrected last week.

The hedge opportunity 07-DEC-09 Performance cycles indicate that hedging could be an opportunity and not just an imperfect risk management technique.

Analysts' corner 07-DEC-09 Hindustan Unilever (HUL) continues to witness volume deceleration in some of its key categories despite several re-launches, hefty advertising and pricing action implemented by the company since January 2009.

A long-term play 07-DEC-09 JSW Energy’s track record and high revenue visibility are some clear positives, but the IPO leaves little to gain from in the short-term.

Bankable model 07-DEC-09 Godrej Properties’ growth strategy, past performance and brand equity augur well and will help deliver healthy returns in the long run.

Still soft 07-DEC-09 Tata Steel reported a consolidated loss of Rs 2,707 crore for the September 2009 quarter, its third consecutive quarterly loss.

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JSW Energy IPO Analysis

Bajaj Electricals

Page Industries

Godrej Properties IPO Analysis

Godrej Consumer Products

Pratibha Industries

ACC /

Wipro /

Bata India

Src: Economictimes, Business-Standard, DP Blog

Markets setting base for next fall, 15-20% correction could happen: Anil Manghnani

Markets setting base for next fall, 15-20% correction could happen: Anil Manghnani

Anil Manghnani , Director, Modern Shares & Stock Brokers believes that while the market may top out maximum at 5400, it seems to be setting up the ground for the next fall. He continues to be negative on real estate stocks. Here is what he told ET Now this morning. A bit of a flattish close yesterday, 5131, last day of the week, how do you expect it to pan out? It will probably be subdued trading now, last two days markets not been able to hold onto the intra-day gains. There is a little bit of, not fatigue but little bit of pause, I mean remember the market has gone from 4800 to nearly 5200 in four trading sessions as such. So, some pause even today may be more stock specific action but I would say whether we top out at 5200-5300-5400, I am not sure but this time around I feel we are setting up the base for the next fall. Without sounding overly bearish, what I am trying to say is the last two occasions we were at 5100, you did not get the sense that the retail participation was there, momentum stocks were not moving, speculative action was not there. You had voices where there is the redemption pressure, it is very rare in India. You hear markets at a new 52-week high and redemption pressure but that seems to be subsiding now. The scepticism seems to be a little bit off now and the people are coming back to the market. So even though this Nifty may have some leg on the upside, I just feel that now with the participation increasing there will be more risk which will create the excess for the next correction. So you will see movement but there is going to be some sort of creation of the next fall. It will be difficult to understand, I mean to explain but now is the time to be careful in this move to 5300-5400 where the excesses are going to be created. The next time the fall comes, you will get that 15-20% correction. Every time we get a fall of let’s say 300-400 points, everybody talks about that 20% correction and the market bounces back but this time around we are creating that sort of scenario where we will be susceptible to a fall. Stock specific in this session and you are looking at real estate, that is your target on the sell side? More so from the fact that they are weaker sectors and they have had a nice bounce from the lows of Friday. So anywhere close to 94 to 100 sort of levels is a good range to exit Unitech, especially you are stuck earlier or you bought on Friday. So that would be a range for me. You sell between 94 and 101 and your lower target should be back to 86 and 80. Even weaker than Unitech is DLF because that actually went and made a fresh low in the fall of Friday. When I say fresh low to October end lows. That is more weaker, so 388 to 402 would sort of be the profit booking or exiting zone if you are stuck with a view that the stock will fallback to about 370 and 353 levels.

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'Emerging mkts to provide strong returns'

Allan Conway , Head, Emerging Markets, Schroders believes emerging markets will continue to be strong performers in the next year too. He believes the decoupling process is well and truly on. Here is the full transcript of his chat with ET Now: ( Watch Video ) It appears that at global level, markets are now ready to buy risk because of dollar carry trade, significant inflows are now coming to emerging markets? The first thing I would point out is that when we talk about buying risk, in the past investors viewed emerging markets as risky assets. The fact is there has been a re-appraisal of risk in the marketplace. We would actually argue that the risky assets now are the US equities, European equities, Japanese equity markets. The safe haven equity markets are actually now the emerging countries and this re-appraisal of risk is causing a lot of increased interest in emerging market investment. One of the things that I do in some of the presentations I make is I give investors an example of a country, I call it country X which has very bad fiscal position, poor current account, depreciating currency, low level of reserves, high reliance on foreign capital to finance its debt and I asked investors which they thing country X is and in the past everyone would have said that is an emerging country. Today that country is the US. The US today looks more like an old fashioned emerging country and today’s emerging are much-much stronger. So there is re-appraisal of risk now going on in the marketplace we believe. But if you really analyse a market like India, we have got $15 billion of institutional inflows in the year 2009 and that is some kind of a record, how much do you think the current inflows for Indian market are actually because of dollar weakness? You must remember that the inflows you are seeing this year are after some very significant outflows last year. If we take emerging as a whole, the data we see is the money that is coming to emerging in total this year is only a fraction more than the total that came out last year. So net over the two years it actually broadly flat. Now obviously the weak dollar has encouraged the carry trade, positions that you are starting to see. However we would argue that a lot of the money going into emerging markets is now particularly coming from institutions rather than retail because institutions are now looking at emerging as strategic investments rather than tactical. So carry trade has a real but much more important has been this reappraisal of exposure to emerging and acknowledging that they are much stronger than the developed and institutions moving to a strategic allocation. To actually draw parallel here, the yen carry trade lasted for years before it went burst, what is your sense, will the dollar carry trade also perhaps exist and coexist for another five six years more before it actually fades away? We should expect to continue to see dollar weakness. There will obviously be short time periods, short periods where the dollar has a bounce but there are three underlying factors that would give you ongoing dollar weakness, one is obviously the economy that is low growth, high debt, underlying, weak economy in the US, indeed this crisis is probably knocked off 50 basis points from their trend growth.

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Src: Economictimes.Com

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 04.11.2009

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 04.11.2009


This(Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls) will be a New Initiative of this blog to Publish Blog Author's Own Investment/Trading Calls for Short-Medium Term perspective. But All these Calls are not given on Purely Technical perspective. Most of these Calls are given by Blog Author from His past Investment/Trading experiences. So Do not expect More depth in Calls. Author has tried his best to give some calls for the benefit of Investors/Traders from his experience and from some media/web/news based call. So author request all the investors/traders to take/try these Calls as RISK CALLS. And Keep Strict Stop Loss Own (or) Keep Resi,Supp levels As Stop Loss for their Trading(or) Trade/Invest @ your Own Financial Risk. All type of Comments are Welcome about this New Initiative. Dont Forget to Keep Stop Loss and Again Author Remembering you that he is giving calls only from his past trading experience...


Nifty Future cmp 5132


NFut struggles to cross 5181 levels... LOng only above this level... Supports at 5114-5052-5056 levels...


ACE: cmp 34

Buy For Investments... Supports @ 31.8-29.4 levels... Resi @ 36-38 levels..


Polaris cmp 191


I think Stock has cross crucuial resi @ 185-188 levels... As long as this level holds, then could see further upside...



Sunflag Iron: cmp 25.3

This stock everytime bounces to 27 levels and returns ..... Will this break that level and Breakout?????


Rcom: cmp 179

(Outside call)

If breaks 182-185 with good volumes, then could see a 10-15 % upside... StopLoss at 174..



By

Srisai..

Heard on the street

Heard on the street

Parent’s show of strength boosts Thomas Cook A series of positive developments helped shares of tour operator Thomas Cook (India) jump 11.93%, or Rs 6.90, on Monday to end at Rs 64.75 on BSE. According to analysts, the demand uptick in the travel and hospitality sector during the past couple of months has been boosting sentiment in the counter. The improved sentiment is expected to continue over winter, the peak season. Around the same time last year, the business was dull as a result of the global financial crisis and the subsequent Mumbai terror attacks. But what appears to have helped the counter on Monday was the strong set of numbers put out by the company’s European parent Thomas Cook for the full year ended September 30, 2009. Thomas Cook (India) touched an intra-day high of Rs 67 and low of Rs 59.70 before closing at Rs 64.75 on BSE. Institutional buying lifts Man Aluminium After two sessions of harsh selling, institutional investors started buying shares of Man Aluminium at lower prices in sizeable quantities. Man Aluminium shares were pounded on bourses last week (post-reports of Dubai debt debacle) as investors feared Dubai Bank PJSC, which holds 4.3% in the Indian aluminium company, would dump its India equity holdings, including Man Aluminium, to make good their losses in Dubai. Firm aluminium prices also supported the shares of the company. The near-month aluminium contract on MCX was trading at Rs 93.25 per kilo, up by Rs 0.70 from Friday’s close. Shares of Man Aluminium ended 1.9% higher at Rs 42.90 on the BSE on Monday. Earnings growth hopes trigger demand in Marico Institutional investors have been active in the Marico counter on hopes of better prospects for the company, after a leading Mumbai-based broking house said the company would sustain earnings growth amid national rollout of new products. In its research report, the broking house said the company’s strategy to reinvest savings in brands will help it post better volume growth even as the topline would moderate due to diminishing price growth. Recently, FII Arisaig Partners acquired nearly 17 lakh Marico shares to raise its stake to 5.2% through open market purchases. The stock has been seeing some action in the current market though it has underperformed the recent bull run. Marico closed marginally up at Rs 103.5 on Monday. The delivery ratio, which reflects long-term investor interest in a particular stock, has been healthy between 45 to 65% during the past few days. Contributed by Reena Zachariah, Shailesh Menon & Vijay Gurav

Src: Economictimes

Stimulus pushes Q2 GDP up 7.9% Y-O-Yr

Stimulus pushes Q2 GDP up 7.9% Y-O-Yr

NEW DELHI: India's economy grew an annual 7.9 percent in the September quarter, much faster than expected on government stimulus spending and a

Top 10 challenges for India What is IIP? Know what is monetary policy India's slow road to economic reform

surge in manufacturing, adding pressure on the central bank to lift interest rates as inflation rises. ( Watch )

The annual growth for India's fiscal second quarter was far above a median forecast of 6.3 percent in a Reuters poll as agricultural output performed better than expected, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond up by 2 basis points as investors bet on higher interest rates. The growth was the strongest for Asia's third-largest economy in 18 months. ( Watch )

"This data could be a green light for the Reserve Bank of India to hike rates, and there are greater chances of this by end of the calendar year. The exit from the fiscal stimulus by the government may also be earlier post the GDP data," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asia economist at HSBC in Singapore.

In the June quarter, India's economy grew 6.1 percent from a year earlier, and Prior-Wandesforde said that by his calculation the September's period's growth was the sharpest on a quarter-by-quarter basis since quarterly data began in 1996.

Manufacturing output expanded 9.2 percent in the September quarter as consumers stepped up purchases of cars and other goods. Farm output was up 0.9 percent, beating expectations for a decline, although economists warned that the impact of the poor monsoon was likely to be seen in the current quarter.

Also Read

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"The December quarter will show agriculture declining, because that's when the harvest shortfall will get captured," said Rajeev Malik, economist at Macquarie in Singapore, who stuck with his view that the central bank would deploy liquidity management steps rather than rate hikes in December and January.

"I don't think they (RBI) are going to be swung by what agriculture has done on a technical basis," he said. Last week, India's finance minister expressed worry about rising food prices -- the result of a bad summer monsoon and floods that have crimped farm output.

On Monday, however, a top government advisor said there were no serious inflation concerns for now and said he expected no change in government stimulus policy for the current fiscal year. "It is difficult to project what will happen in the rest of the year. But this performance does suggest that there may well have to be an upward revision in the GDP growth of 6.5 percent which has been projected so far," Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India's Planning Commission.

Reactions to India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.9%

Sensex ends near 16900; Tata Steel, Bharti gain

Higher consumption pushes Q2 GDP growth at 7.9% YoY

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India's Q2 GDP at 7.9%


Belying predictions, the Indian economy grew by a significant 7.9 per cent in the second quarter of this fiscal, up from 6.1 per cent in the previous quarter, essentially due to a good showing by the industry and the services sector.

The growth compares favourably to 7.7 per cent recorded in the July-September quarter in the previous year.

Consequently, the economy rose by 7 per cent in the first half ending September 30 of the current fiscal on the back of stimulus packages and revival of domestic demand, giving hopes that final figures for the year could be much higher.

The government, including Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the Reserve Bank and the Planning Commission had predicted a growth of about 6-7 per cent, while global agencies and analysts forecast it to be even lower.

The Prime Minister's economic advisory panel had pegged the economy to grow by around 6.1% in Q2 due to the impact of a weak monsoon on agriculture.

Financing, agriculture and real estate growth stood at 7.7% in Q2. The surge in GDP numbers was helped by the manufacturing sector, which grew 9.2% in the second quarter vi-a-vis 5.1% a year earlier.

Analysts were expecting a growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent in the second quarter. The economic growth of close to eight per cent in the second quarter is also remarkable in the context of just 0.9 per cent expansion in farm production due to a weak monsoon and continued contraction in exports due to slackening demand overseas.

However, the manufacturing sector grew by 9.2 per cent in the July-September period compared to 5.1 per cent in the corresponding period of last fiscal and mining and quarrying by 9.5 per cent versus 3.7 per cent recorded in FY09.

Community, social and personal services expanded by double digit at 12.7 per cent against nine per cent. Despite being affected by international slowdown, trade, hotels, transport and communication sector grew by 8.5 per cent, which is lower than 12.1 per cent a year ago.

Financing, insurance, real estate, and business services rose by 7.7 per cent against 6.4 per cent. Electricity, gas and water supply was up 7.4 per cent compared to 3.8 per cent. Construction rose by 6.5 per cent, down over 9.6 per cent a year ago.

It was after September, that growth declined to 5.8 per cent in the subsequent two quarters last year. So, if the trend continues, the growth rate is expected to be much higher in the second half of this fiscal.

The size of the domestic economy stood at Rs 17.90 lakh crore in the first half of FY10.

The Reserve Bank deputy governor Subir Gokarn said, "clearly this is better news than we could have expected and we will have to review the forecast for the year as a whole."

The Prime Ministers' Economic Council chairman C Rangarajan also said that the target of 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the current fiscal may have to be revised upwards following the robust second quarter numbers."

With this, the domestic economy continues to be the second fastest growing large economy in the world after China, which recorded 8.9 per cent in the July-September of 2009.

As hopes of revival accentuates after the data, economists expect that the government may now think of withdrawing the fiscal stimulus. "The government could withdraw stimulus (excise duty cuts) for fast-growing sectors as the Centre's revenue position does not look too good," Crisil principal economist DK Joshi said.

Manufacturing, which drew benefits of the stimulus package, expanded by a smart 9.2 per cent against 3.4 per cent in the preceding quarter and 5.1 per cent in the second quarter of the last fiscal.

However, Ahluwalia said,"my views have always been that we should look at the position (stimulus) at close to February."

From last December through March 2009, the Centre had cut excise duty by six per cent and service tax by two per cent, besides stepping up plan expenditure to generate demand, which slowed down after the US financial icon Lehman Brothers collapsed last year, dragging the whole world into the worst recession after the Great Depression of the 1930s. Positive growth by the farm sector also surprised economists. "We are surprised with agriculture growth. If not a downslide, we expected a decline at least," HDFC chief economist Abheek Barua said.

However, some economists still maintain their under-seven per cent forecast for FY10. "We yet maintain our 6.5 per cent GDP forecast," Yes Bank chief economist Shubhada Rao said.

With growth on the upswing, the moot question now is will the government and RBI now shift their focus on controlling inflation. Food inflation has already crossed 15 per cent during the second week of November.

While Ahluwalia said traditional monetary tools of the RBI may not be effective in curbing food inflation, Rangarajan believes that RBI may now focus more on reining inflation.

Both Joshi said, "there is a strong possibility of interest rate hike by the RBI in January." Barua also said a case for a rate hike remains. "With respect to monetary policy action, clearly this strong GDP number gives a green signal for some tightening and we maintain our earlier call of a CRR hike by 50 bps by December-January."

Construction, which has a cascading effect on economy, grew less this quarter at 6.5 per cent against 7.1 per cent Q1 and 9.6 per cent in Q2 last fiscal. But financial, business services and realty rose by 7.7 per cent against 8.1 per cent in Q1 and 6.4 per cent in Q2 FY09.

Trade hotels, transport and communication, grew higher at 8.5 per cent than 8.1 per cent in Q1, but lower than 12.1 per cent in Q2 FY09. However, electricity, gas and water supply at 7.4 per cent and mining and quarrying at 9.5per cent grew more than first Q1 of FY10 and Q2 of FY09.

Src: Monecontrol, Economictimes, Business-Standard Websources..

Prepare for more range trading

Prepare for more range-tra ding

The market turned weak on the cusp of settlement and made a partial recovery in the first session of the December settlement. The Nifty ended with a net week-on-week loss of 2.2 per cent, closing at 4,941.75 points while the Sensex was down 2.3 per cent at 16,632 points. The Defty lost 2.5 percent with the rupee losing ground.

Breadth was decent in that a wide variety of stocks were traded but the advances far outnumbered declines. Volumes were good overall. The institutional attitude was mixed with the FIIs being heavy sellers while domestic institutions bought in smaller quantities. The BSE 500 was down 2 per cent while the Midcaps were down 2.7 per cent.

Outlook: The market looks most likely to range-trade between 4,800-5,100 with some chances of a breakout in either direction. The intermediate correction may not be over yet. There is good support in a band between 4,700-4,800 and equally strong resistance between 5,050-5,150.

Rationale: Last week, the Nifty made a top of 5,138, which is a lower peak compared to the last peak of 5,181 (the 2009 high) in late October. The pattern of lower tops would be interpreted as part of an ongoing intermediate correction.

However, this downtrend would be confirmed as still in force, only if the next bottom is lower than 4,538 (the November 3 low). If the support at 4,700-4,800 holds leading to a pattern of higher lows, or the resistance at 5,050-5,150 breaks (meaning higher tops), the intermediate downtrend will have reversed.

Counter-view: Intermediate trends last anywhere between 4-12 weeks and this one has been in force for around 5. So it has the potential in terms of time to continue. The momentum signals are near neutral. Balanced against that, the long-term trend seems positive – the 200 day moving average is still rising. A positive long-term trend generally means shorter corrections. Fibonacci analysis also suggests that 4,538 is unlikely to be broken.

Bulls & Bears : Most major stocks showed patterns similar to the Nifty-Sensex. They are poised near strong supports and face powerful resistance above current levels. Optimists will be looking for trend reversals and bullish moves up from the supports while pessimists will look for shorts.

Sector wise, almost every high-weighted sector saw many losers. IT was hit by fresh revelations about the magnitude of the Satyam scam and the CNXIT lost 3.7 per cent. Banking was hit by fears of exposure to the potential meltdown in Dubai and the Bank Nifty lost 2.9 per cent. Metals and realty stocks slid as well. Engineering and construction scrips were also hard hit. There were isolated winners in pharma and FMCG and continued cautious investments in energy and auto stocks. The power sector could see an earlier turnaround than most others.

MICRO TECHNICALS

ICICI Bank
Current Price: Rs 850.9
Target Price: Rs 830

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The stock has reacted sharply on high volumes and it could fall further. The nearest reliable support is around Rs 830 and if that is penetrated, Rs 810-815 may be tested. Keep a stop at Rs 860 and go short. Either cover at Rs 830, or partially cover, intending to clear the position at Rs 815.

Indraprastha Gas
Current Price: Rs 167.6
Target Price: Rs 176

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The stock seems to have completed a correction to a strong support. On the next upmove, it should test resistance at around the 2009 high of Rs 176. If it closes above Rs 176, it would have a clear run till around Rs 185. Keep a stop at Rs 165 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 176, and shift the stop up to Rs 172.

GVK Power
Current Price: Rs 50.55
Target Price: Rs 53

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The stock has fallen to a strong support at the current price. If it has completed its correction, it is likely to bounce back till around the Rs 53-54 levels. Keep a stop at Rs 49.5 and go long. Book profits above Rs 53.

Reliance Industries
Currrent Price: Rs 1,046
Target Price: Rs 1,100

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A stock split usually leads to greater liquidity. But in RIL, this effect is hardly noticeable because it was always very liquid. Immediately after going ex-bonus, the scrip has been sold down. It could rebound till Rs 1,100. Keep a stop at Rs 1,035 and go long. Book profits above Rs 1,090.

Mahindra Satyam
Current Price: Rs 90.45
Target Price: Rs 80

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The stock has crashed on very high volumes on new revelations about the scam. If it closes below Rs 90, it is likely to fall till 80. Keep a stop at Rs 93 and go short. Increase the position below Rs 88 and cover the position below Rs 80.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)

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Two attractive mid cap picks Sanjay Chhabria

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IIFL retains 'Buy' rating on GSK Consumer
30 Nov 2009, 0605 hrs IST

IIFL retains `Buy’ rating on GSK Consumer with a target price of Rs. 1627. GSK Consumer is transforming itself from a single product company to a more aggressive and innovative processed foods player.

JP Morgan puts 'Neutral' rating on Siemens India
30 Nov 2009, 0604 hrs IST

Siemens India’s standalone September quarter profit of Rs 152 crore was down 33% y-o-y , well below Street expectations. Weak topline growth and a 270 bps margin decline led to disappointing bottomline performance .

UBS initiates coverage of Adani Power with a `Buy’ rating
30 Nov 2009, 0603 hrs IST

UBS initiates coverage of Adani Power with a `Buy’ rating.

Morgan Stanley retains `Underweight’ rating on Mphasis
30 Nov 2009, 0603 hrs IST

Morgan Stanley retains `Underweight’ rating on Mphasis as they believe revenue and earnings growth for Mphasis could lag market expectations in FY10E.

Deutsche Bank initiates coverage on Rolta India with a `Buy’ rating
30 Nov 2009, 0602 hrs IST

Deutsche Bank initiates coverage on Rolta India with a `Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 220. Rolta operates in the niche segment of geospatial information services and engineering design.

Edelweiss recommends ‘Buy’ rating on Hexaware Technologies
30 Nov 2009, 0601 hrs IST

Edelweiss recommends ‘Buy’ rating on Hexaware Technologies. In the September ‘09 quarter, Hexaware reported deal wins worth $80 million executable over three-five years.

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Dubai crisis singes markets 30-NOV-09 The markets succumbed to Dubai debt repayment crisis in the latter half of the week.

Markets at a glance 30-NOV-09 Indian indices sank into the red as the news of Dubai World's debt problems hit the world markets on Thursday.

Analysts' corner 30-NOV-09 Hindalco $600 million QIP issue will result in a 12 per cent equity dilution.

Volatility rises as market switches trends 30-NOV-09 The November settlement ended with heavy FII selling and a weak trend.

Prepare for more range-tra ding 30-NOV-09 The market turned weak on the cusp of settlement and made a partial recovery in the first session of the December settlement.

Desert storm may last long 30-NOV-09 The Dubai crisis could have major ramifications similar to the global credit turmoil last year.

Clear signal 30-NOV-09 Capital infusion should help DTH market leader Dish TV to consolidate its position in a highly competitive segment.

A rough road 30-NOV-09 MBL Infrastructures’ small size and concentrated order book outweigh the opportunities in the sector and make the stiffly priced offer unattractive.

Sweet move 30-NOV-09 The move to acquire Brazil-based Vale Do Ivai and favourable business environment augur well for Shree Renuka Sugars.

Downstream gains 30-NOV-09 By making a bid for LyondellBasell’s assets, Reliance seems to be getting serious about the global petrochemicals business.

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Top 5 picks | Mid-term picks for the day

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Jyothy Labs

Dubai World scare, a trigger for correction?

Tulip Telecom

eClerx Services

MBL Infrastructures IPO Review

DLF

HDIL

Ranbaxy Labs

Weekly Wrap - Nov 29 2009

Tata Steel

Weekly Wrap - Nov 28 2009

Src: All Leading Business Websources..

Nifty ends near 4950 IT and capital goods down

Mkts singe in Dubai crisis, end down despite smart recovery

Dubai's debt crisis has put Indian equities as well as global markets on fire since yesterday. The crack across the globe emerged when emirate said two of its flagship firms planned to delay repayment of billions of dollars in debt. The markets feared that this debt default could affect other countries as they are trying to recover from global meltdown.

But the benchmark indices as well as European shares discounted most of the news, due to which Indian equities recovered more than 2/3rd of losses in the last couple of hours, led by buying from insurance companies. The Nifty closed the day above 4,900 level while the Sensex above the 16,600 level.

Also Read See Key Market Stats - Top Gainers/ Losers, Most Actives, Highs/Lows See how Global Markets are trading Indian ADRs RSS feed for news Click here

Dubai's government on Wednesday said it would ask creditors of Dubai World, the conglomerate behind its rapid expansion, and Nakheel, builder of its palm-shaped islands, to agree a standstill on billions of dollars of debt as a first step towards restructuring. Dubai World has USD 59 billion of liabilities, representing a large part of Dubai's total debt of USD 80 billion.

The S&P, rating agency, had placed the ratings of four Dubai-based banks on negative outlook due to their exposure to Dubai World.

The Sensex closed 16,647, down 207 points and the Nifty fell 62 points to 4,943, as per provisional data.

Continued on the next page...

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• No exposure: ICICI | $25mn at stake: L&T | Small exposure: BoB

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Next page Nifty ends near 4950; IT, capital goods down

MUMBAI: Equities bounced back from intraday lows but ended in the red Friday on fears of financial crisis in Dubai. The decline was led by losses Tips to pick potential stocks Tips for range-bound markets Risk while investing in midcaps Follow 20-20 rule for better returns in IT, capital goods and metals space. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 4942.40, down 63.15 points or 1.26 per cent. The index touched an intraday low of 4806.70 and high of 5005.05. Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 16,647, down 207.93 points or 1.23 per cent. The 30-share index hit a low of 16210.44 and high of 16718.80. BSE Midcap Index was down 1.31 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index declined 2.12 per cent. Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE IT Index was down 2.38 per cent, BSE Capital Goods Index fell 1.71 per cent and BSE Metals Index slipped 1.44 per cent. Nifty gainers comprised Suzlon (7.32%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (2.87%), Unitech (2.59%), BPCL (2.22%) and GAIL (1.17%). Among Nifty losers, Siemens (-5.65%), IDFC (-4.06%), Axis Bank (-3.42%), Ambuja Cements (-2.99%) and JP Associates (-2.87%) were the worst hit. Market breadth on BSE was extremely negative with 2003 declines against 740 advances. (All figures are provisional)

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Other Related Stories:

Dubai saga leaves Indian banks, infrastructure, realty cos in limbo
Abu Dhabi likely to bail out Dubai: India Infoline
Dubai small part of overall intn'l exposure of Indian companies: Kotak AMC
Dubai's brief history of mega projects: In Pics

Dubai may face international realty firesale
27 Nov 2009, 1530 hrs IST, AGENCIES

International property advisors are bracing to revalue and sell trophy assets owned by Dubai World. Burj Dubai: The tallest tower | Dubai's metro | Dubai's mega projects

• India Inc comes clean on Dubai exposure, issues statements

Src: Moneycontrol, Economictimes

30 Most Powerful Women - Business Today

The power 30

The recession, downturn or whatever you call it, has dented most kinds of lists—lists of billionaires, lists of most valuable companies, lists of top recruiters and so on.

But there is one list that has grown when others shrank—BT’s list of the Most Powerful Women in Indian Business. As we researched for the seventh edition of our list, we were confronted with an embarrassment of riches.

Successful women leaders are dotting the Indian business landscape in far greater numbers than ever. Result: our list is of 30 jewels. Many “regulars” in our list have added more to their power in the past one year. Two large and rapidly-growing private banks are headed by women today, which wasn’t the case last year.

Though banking and finance still dominate the list, woman power is growing exponentially in the business of Bollywood, consumer goods and public relations. Our list captures this too. Check out the new faces and the new achievements of the old ones.

VINITA BALI, 52, MD, Britannia Industries

Once again in the BT Power List. Does it still enthuse you?
What enthuses is the work that “the list” recognises.

Your definition of power—has it changed over the years?
It evolves... as you reflect on new experiences— but fundamentally for me, power is about creating the context and environment where the right things happen.

New lessons learnt in 2009.
The discretion and judgement to know when to push and when to be patient in a volatile and unpredictable market!

New frontiers conquered in 2009.
Global recognition for the work Britannia is doing in the area of kids nutrition, at the “Clinton Global Initiative,” for example.

What next?
More transformative change.

- Rahul Sachitanand

More @ The power 30

The power to change

The talent catchers

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Src: BusinessToday