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16 January 2010

Results Corner

15 January 2010

Heard on the street

Heard on the street

Speculation over Welspun Gujarat-MSK Projects

buy

TALK of Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren looking to buy MSK Projects refuses to die despite the latter denying it. Grapevine has it that discussion between Welspun and MSK for the deal is in the final stage and will be announced soon. It is also speculated that MSK promoters are likely to offload their stake at Rs 140 a piece, followed by an open offer to buy another 20% from minority shareholders.

On Thursday, MSK shares fell 3% to Rs 120.65. Welspun shares fell 1% to Rs 279.50. Promoters hold 21.68% in MSK, while Subhkam Venture holds 23.66%, as on September 30. MSK officials were not available to comment on the matter.

Mid-cap cement stocks back in demand

INVESTORS took a fancy to midcap cement stocks on Thursday on talk that cement prices were likely to firm up soon. Stocks like Binani Cement, Andhra Cement, Saurashtra Cement, Dalmia Cement, Shree Cement and Prism Cement were among the prominent gainers, rising between 3-6 %.

Analysts tracking the sector say fund houses have been steadily buying cement shares in anticipation of further growth in the construction sector. According to them, many cement companies are set to increase prices further, sensing good demand in the residential property segment. Indian cement industry is witnessing a growth rate of about 8%, the fastest growing market next to China.

Satyam Computer basks in IT glory

SHARES of Satyam Computer are seeing a renewed burst of activity. Probably, strong quarterly numbers from Infosys Technologies could have raised expectations from other leading IT services companies as well. On Thursday, a US-based investor is said to have bought close to 30 lakh shares. Some of the bull operators too are said to be steadily building up long positions at the counter.

Dealers tracking the counter say the rise in the stock price from hereon may be a bit gradual, since many players who are tired of holding on to the stock may decide to cash in. The stock had touched a high of Rs 128 in September last year, but has been moving in a narrow band ever since. On Thursday, the stock closed at Rs 120.85, up 1.2% from the previous close. On the BSE, 1.23 crore shares changed hands, with roughly a fourth of it resulting in delivery.

Contributed by Nishanth Vasudevan & Apurv Gupta

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Top 5 picks

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Src: ET

14 January 2010

Heard on the street

14 Jan 2010, 0356 hrs IST, ET Bureau

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Comment

Text:

Scooters India seen riding the divestment

wave

A group of punters appear to have taken control of the Scooters India stock. Shares of the loss-making public sector undertaking (PSU) hit a 52-week high of Rs 45.45, amid a sudden surge in volumes, and ended the day at Rs 44, up 14% over the previous close. Around 13.6 lakh shares changed hands on Wednesday, compared to an average daily volume of around 8,000 shares on most trading sessions in the past three months.

The stock has risen nearly 60% this month alone. Cornering the stock does not need too much capital, considering that the non-promoter holding in the company is barely 20 lakh shares. With divestment being the flavour of the season, PSU shares are suddenly in demand.

It is not too difficult for an operator to whip up volumes in an illiquid stock and then unload the shares to the unsuspecting public by spreading the divestment story. There were more than a dozen bulk deals in the stock on Wednesday, with all of them being squared off before close of trading.

The sudden interest in the stock by arbitrageurs does raise eyebrows, considering the illiquid nature of the stock. Of the 13 players who took up positions at the counter, 8 squared off their positions for a small loss, two barely managed to break even, and four made a small profit. Scooters India made a net loss of Rs 2.27 crore for FY09, and a net loss of Rs 1.2 crore for the half year ended September 2009.

Alarm bells ringing for second-rung stocks

IS THE rally in second-line stocks close to peaking out? Yes, say some dealers, pointing out to the fact that money-making is becoming a bit too easy.

“We get at least half-a-dozen tips daily with likely price targets over the next few days,” says a dealer at an institutional brokerage. “But, of late, the target prices are being attained before the specified period. That is too fast for comfort,” he says.

NTPC follow-on offer may open on Feb 3

THE FOLLOW-ON public offering of NTPC is likely to start from February 3-5, according to people involved with the process. The company along with government officials and bankers has started meeting domestic institutional investors including insurance companies and mutual funds to gauge investor appetite for the Rs-11,000 crore share sale.

The company filed its offer document with Sebi on Tuesday and is likely to be flexible in the new auction process by not placing any cap either in terms of the number of shares or percentage to issued capital. Investment bankers say that the success of the NTPC issue will play a crucial role in the government’s future disinvestment plan.

Contributed by Santosh Nair & Reena Zachariah

Src:ET

13 January 2010

Is China the next Enron?

Is China the next Enron?

TAIWAN: Reading The Herald Tribune over breakfast in Hong Kong harbor last week, my eye went to the front-page story about how James Chanos —

reportedly one of America's most successful short-sellers, the man who bet that Enron was a fraud and made a fortune when that proved true and its stock collapsed — is now warning that China is "Dubai times 1,000 or worse" and looking for ways to short that country's economy before its bubbles burst.

China's markets may be full of bubbles ripe for a short-seller, and if Chanos can find a way to make money shorting them, God bless him. But after visiting Hong Kong and Taiwan this past week and talking to many people who work and invest their own money in China, I'd offer Chanos two notes of caution.

First, a simple rule of investing that has always served me well: Never short a country with $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves.

Second, it is easy to look at China today and see its enormous problems and things that it is not getting right. For instance, low interest rates, easy credit, an undervalued currency and hot money flowing in from abroad have led to what the Chinese government Sunday called "excessively rising house prices" in major cities, or what some might call a speculative bubble ripe for the shorting.

In the last few days, though, China's central bank has started edging up interest rates and raising the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves - precisely to head off inflation and take some air out of any asset bubbles.

And that's the point. I am reluctant to sell China short, not because I think it has no problems or corruption or bubbles, but because I think it has all those problems in spades - and some will blow up along the way (the most dangerous being pollution). But it also has a political class focused on addressing its real problems, as well as a mountain of savings with which to do so (unlike us).

And here is the other thing to keep in mind. Think about all the hype, all the words, that have been written about China's economic development since 1979. It's a lot, right? What if I told you this: "It may be that we haven't seen anything yet."

Why do I say that? All the long-term investments that China has made over the last two decades are just blossoming and could really propel the Chinese economy into the 21st-century knowledge age, starting with its massive investment in infrastructure. Ten years ago, China had a lot bridges and roads to nowhere.

Well, many of them are now connected. It is also on a crash program of building subways in major cities and high-speed trains to interconnect them. China also now has 400 million Internet users, and 200 million of them have broadband. Check into a motel in any major city and you'll have broadband access. America has about 80 million broadband users.

Now take all this infrastructure and mix it together with 27 million students in technical colleges and universities - the most in the world. With just the normal distribution of brains, that's going to bring a lot of brainpower to the market, or, as Bill Gates once said to me: "In China, when you're one-in-a-million, there are 1,300 other people just like you."

Equally important, more and more Chinese students educated abroad are returning home to work and start new businesses. I had lunch with a group of professors at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, or HKUST, who told me that this year they will be offering some 50 full scholarships for graduate students in science and technology. Major US universities are sharply cutting back.

Tony Chan, a Hong Kong-born mathematician, recently returned from America after 20 years to become the new president of HKUST. What was his last job in America? Assistant director of the U.S. National Science Foundation in charge of the mathematical and physical sciences. He's one of many coming home.

One of the biggest problems for China's manufacturing and financial sectors has been finding capable middle managers. The reverse-brain drain is eliminating that problem as well.

Finally, as Liu Chao-shiuan, Taiwan's former prime minister, pointed out to me: When Taiwan moved up the value chain from low-end, labor-intensive manufacturing to higher, value-added work, its factories moved to China or Vietnam. It lost them. In China, low-end manufacturing moves from coastal China to the less developed Western part of the country and becomes an engine for development there. In Taiwan, factories go up and out. In China, they go East to West.

"China knows it has problems," said Liu. "But this is the first time it has a chance to actually solve them." Taiwanese entrepreneurs now have more than 70,000 factories in China. They know the place. So I asked several Taiwanese businessmen whether they would "short" China. They vigorously shook their heads no as if I'd asked if they'd go one on one with LeBron James.

But, hey, some people said the same about Enron. Still, I'd rather bet against the euro. Shorting China today? Well, good luck with that, Mr Chanos. Let us know how it works out for you.

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Markets Review: Sensex closes above 17500; IT, metals lead

China CRR hike sends rate sensitives in a tizzy

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Src: Economictimes.com

Results Corner

12 January 2010

Heard on the Street

Heard on the Street

Investors lap up shares of PSUs ahead of FPOs
Savvy traders are said to be accumulating shares of public sector undertakings such as

NTPC, Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) and National Mining Development Corporation (NMDC), which have lined up follow-on public offerings (FPOs). Officials at investment banks say the companies will be going in for the auction method, as the government is looking to maximise its collection from the sale of shares.

Punters are betting that institutional investors will bid at a decent premium to market price if they hope to be allotted the quantity they have bid for. The highest bid could then set the benchmark for the stock price, punters feel. REC shares rose 5% to close at Rs 252.50, NMDC gained 3.6% to
close at Rs 434, and NTPC closed 1% up at Rs 233.10.

Rar(e)ing Bull, loyalists take fancy to GIC Housing
Trade volumes in the GIC Housing Finance stock have shot up over the past few sessions. The counter witnessed a few bulk deals on Thursday and Friday, with Caledonia Investments, the largest institutional investor in the company, offloading nearly 32 lakh shares of the 51 lakh shares it held in its portfolio. Stock exchange websites (BSE and NSE) have no details of the buyers.

Buzz is that the Rar(e)ing Bull and his loyalists have been accumulating the shares. The Bull has publicly said that he’s no fan of real estate companies. But it looks like he doesn’t mind betting on sectors
that stand to gain if property developers do well.

Sebi wants to trace route of mutual fund ‘trail’
Not long ago, Sebi had slammed mutual fund houses for demanding a no-objection certificate from investors who wished to change distributors. The issue is back in focus, with a section of the industry protesting that some AMCs have continued to pass on trail to the ‘old’ distributor, despite knowing that it amounts to restrictive trade practice.

Perception is that companies want to protect old distributors who had bought in the client. Talk is that the regulator is taking a serious view of the issue and is likely to check whether trail has been going to the old distributor despite an investor having indicated otherwise. The issue clearly highlights the divide between larger and smaller asset management companies (AMCs).

Contributed by Reena Zachariah, Santosh Nair & Deeptha Rajkumar

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Mid-term picks of the day | Top 5 picks of the day

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Morning Newsletters - Jan 12 2010

Infinite Computer Solutions - Apply or Avoid ?

NTPC Ltd

ACE

IRB Infrastructure Developers

Themes for 2010

Ranbaxy

Src: Economictimes, Deadpresident Blog and etc

11 January 2010

Range bound trading continues

The market hit a new 52-week high in the first full week of trading. But volumes tapered off and prices dropped towards the weekend. The Nifty closed at 5,244.75 points with a gain of 0.8 per cent after climbing to 5,310. The Sensex was up 0.4 per cent, closing at 17,540. The Defty gained 2.75 per cent as the rupee strengthened sharply.

Breadth indicators were good with advances comfortably outnumbering declines despite Friday's sell off. The rupee's strength was partly due to committed buying from FIIs and domestic institutions were also net buyers. The Nifty Junior was up 2.7 per cent while the BSE 500 rose 1.7 per cent. The Midcaps also outperformed the Nifty, rising 3.8 per cent. Volumes were on the low side.

Outlook: The market is liable to range between 5,150 and 5,300 next week and the initial bias could be negative. Any breakouts could lead to a 150-200 point swing if there's a volume expansion with the breakout. That is, if the market drops to a close below 5,150, it could drop till around 4,950 and if it rises to close beyond 5,300, it could test 5,400-5,450.

Rationale: The poor advance-decline situation on Friday (when most stocks closed lower than Thursday) suggests a short-term decline. However, there is very strong support in the erstwhile zone of resistance between 5,150 and 5,180. On the upside, there is a lot of resistance between 5,275 and 5,300. To clear that resistance, it will require serious volume expansion. Even the 5,400-5,450 zone has massive trading history, so the Northwards journey will need lots of fuel.

Counter-view: The long-term trend is firmly up. The absence of volatility in the past two-three weeks can be explained to some extent by the lack of volume, which in turn is partly due to the holiday season. If volumes improve, as they should, over the next 5-10 sessions, prices are likely to show an upward trend. The one serious danger would be a pullout by FIIs.

Bulls & bears: The IT sector was hit hard by the rupee rise – most of the majors have seen selloffs and the CNXIT dropped 3.7 per cent this week. Results are soon due for Infosys and TCS, and the market sentiment seems bearish. One exception is Mahindra Satyam, which climbed last week. Banking appears to be past a recent bearish phase and it will probably outperform the market. IDFC and Axis Bank may beat the overall financial sector.

Realty made a strong comeback on Friday with most of the big guns rising, but part of this may have been short-covering ahead of the weekend. Engineering and construction stocks like HCC, GMR Infra, Nagarjuna Construction, Maytas and Jyoti Structures also did well. Automobile shares saw profit-booking. But, auto ancillaries such as Bharat Forge, Bosch India and Sona Steering saw bullish backing. Non-ferrous metal stocks also saw buying and Sterlite and Hindalco continue to look interesting. There was scattered stock-specific interest in counters like Suzlon, GE Shipping, JP Associates and NTPC.

MICRO TECHNICALS

INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE
Current Price: Rs 227.40
Target Price: Rs 245

The stock has started a recovery on short-covering from around Rs 215. There is sufficient momentum for a rise till around the Rs 245-250 mark. Keep a stop at around Rs 220 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 232 and Rs 235 and start booking profits at Rs 245.

ESSAR SHIPPING
Current Price: Rs 80.90
Target Price: Rs 90

The stock has seen a relatively recent trend reversal to positive. It had massive volume expansion in the past few sessions. It could have the potential to move till around the Rs 90 mark. Keep a stop at Rs 78 and go long.

HUL
Current Price: Rs 265.95
Target Price: Rs 280

The stock has seen selling that has pushed it down to a good support. It could bounce till around the Rs 275-280 levels. Keep a stop at Rs 262 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 275 and clear the position at Rs 280.

TCS
Current Price: Rs 699.80
Target Price: Rs 680

A sharp reaction has started from a recent high of Rs 760. Volumes have increased as the price has fallen, which is usually a danger signal. There is some support at current levels but the next reliable support is at Rs 680. Keep a stop at Rs 705 and go short. Cover at Rs 680.

STERLITE INDUSTRIES
Current Price: Rs 906.35
Target Price: Rs 940

The stock has completed a bullish breakout with some volume expansion. The target would be about Rs 940. Keep a trailing stop at Rs 890 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 915 and Rs 920 and raise the stop to Rs 910. Start booking profits at Rs 935.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)

10 January 2010

Stock Reports and Recommendations

Steel stocks to watch for

Jindal Steel & Power
10 Jan 2010, 1052 hrs IST

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Latest Quotes | Charts | News/Announcements | Quarterly Results | P&L | Price History

CMP: Rs 711

JSPL reported Q2 results which are 1% ahead on an operating level but 5% ahead on a net profit level against our estimates. We just marvel at the flexibility of the product mix, which allows the company to maintain steady 35% operating margins even with a 36% drop in steel realisation. We are pushing JSPL as our top pick ahead of our earlier referred Sterlite Ind due to its better visibility of resource backed growth profile making it a less riskier investment.

Analyst: Macquarie Securities

Tata Steel
10 Jan 2010, 1049 hrs IST

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Latest Quotes | Charts | News/Announcements | Quarterly Results | P&L | Price History

CMP: Rs 650

Tata Steel reported Q2 consolidated results in line with our operating line estimates. Of $346m, 15% is of our full year estimate of $2.2bn. However, there is a good chance of it achieving the remaining $1.8bn as we expect volumes to improve by about 11% in H2 to 13.9mt and coking coal costs to reduce by about $100/t. Tata Steel is the best stock to play the rebound. Its Indian operations benefit from rising raw materials costs due to its integrated nature.

Analyst: Macquarie Securities

Adhunik Metaliks
10 Jan 2010, 1045 hrs IST

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Latest Quotes | Charts | News/Announcements | Quarterly Results | P&L | Price History

CMP: Rs 121

ADML is an integrated special steel producer and iron ore miner. Consolidated earnings are expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 76% over FY09-12 on account of growth in steel production and iron ore mining. However, EPS growth over the period is likely to grow at a little lower CAGR of 58% due to capital is-sue and merger of group companies.

Analyst: Motilal Oswal Financial Services

More @ Steel stocks to watch for

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Analyst's Pick: SMALL CAP: ICICI Securities
10 Jan 2010, 0312 hrs IST

Though the order book of the company is very strong at Rs 2500 crore, concerns remain on profitability due to higher interest costs and unending realised forex losses.

Analyst's Pick: MID CAP: Motilal Oswal Financial Services
10 Jan 2010, 0311 hrs IST

Consolidated earnings are expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 76% over FY09-12 on account of growth in steel production and iron ore mining.

Analyst's Pick: MID CAP: Motilal Oswal Financial Services
10 Jan 2010, 0308 hrs IST

Jai Balaji Industries (JBIL) has built capacities aggressively in the last two-three years at a capex of Rs 16 b. Earnings to quadruple over FY10-12.

Analyst's Pick: LARGE CAP: Macquarie Securities
10 Jan 2010, 0302 hrs IST

The company managed to maintain steady 35% operating margins even with a 36% drop in steel realisation. So, JSPL stands as the top pick

Analyst's Pick: LARGE CAP: Macquarie Securities
10 Jan 2010, 0301 hrs IST

Tata Steel is the best stock to play the rebound. Its Indian operations benefit from rising raw materials costs due to its integrated nature.

Analyst's Pick: SMALL CAP: ICICI Securities
10 Jan 2010, 0313 hrs IST

GPIL had reported a topline of Rs 1,092 crore in FY09 on a consolidated basis, showing a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% since FY06.

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	Rallis India: Buy at CMP Rs953 Firstcall India Equity
	Mundra Port: Buy at CMP Rs604 KRChoksey
	PVR: Buy at CMP Rs187 KRChoksey
	Ahluwalia Contracts: Buy at CMP Rs194 Sushil Finance

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VK Sharma's under Rs 50 stock picks

Expert stock/sector picks for next week

9 stocks that were buzzing last week & how to trade them now

JSW Energy

India Strategy - Jan 10 2010

Idea Cellular

Earnings Preview

Earnings Preview - Automobiles, Power Equipment, Cement, Private Banks, NBFC, Construction, Media, IT Services, Real Estate, India Telecom, PSU Banks,

Weekly Wrap - Jan 9 2010

Weekly Newsletter - Jan 11 2010

Everest Industries

Gujarat NRE Coke

Lavasa

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Mark Mobius sees a bull market correction ahead

Emerging market guru Mark Mobius, Chairman of Templeton Asset Management, said shares globally should brace for a correction though he said it would be part of the bull market run taking place.

“We are in a secular bull market and you see corrections, which can be to the tune of 15–20% but we shouldn’t be concerned that it represents a bear market,” Mobius said, urging investors to participate in it by buying more if the correction came along.

The US’ easy monetary policy and printing of dollars to boost growth — “which feeds markets around the world,” he said — is expected to continue till the year end and the beginning of the next year as unemployment in the developed world was still to come down.

“Policymakers in Washington, London and other parts of the world are still very concerned and are not going to pull the plug on liquidity anytime soon because they want to see unemployment coming down,” Mobius said. “There are different projections of whether it will be the first quarter, third quarter or last quarter. The bottom line is they are not ready to pull that plug.”

See: How global markets are faring currently

However, if a correction took place, it would affect emerging markets as they “have become integrated”, according to Mobius.

On the issue of initial public offers, Mobius said investors have to pick them on a case-to-case basis. “The IPOs last year gave about 10% average return, which is not spectacular. Individual issues did very well and some of them tanked. So we have to be very careful with these IPOs.”

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Src: Economictimes, Moneycontrol, Deadpresident Blog, Valuenotes and etc

09 January 2010

Top 3 News

Heard on the Street

Broking firms on hiring spree to strengthen

teams

With institutional activity on the rise, many broking houses are strengthening their teams in the hope of getting a share of the pie. Networth Stock Broking is one such firm. The broking firm has hired two dozen professionals in sales, dealing and research over the past month. Buzz is that 10-12 more people are set to join over the next few weeks.

Apart from Prakash Divan, who has joined as sales head, others have been hired from Centrum, Quantum, Merrill Lynch, Reliance Securities and Asit C Mehta, among others. Talk is that the boutique broking house is trying to create a presence in the derivative and quantitative space, in addition to fundamental research.

HNIs lap up RCom shares despite weak sentiment

Even as the wider section of the market paints a gloomy picture for telecom companies over the year or so, a few contrarians are seeing value in them. But they are avoiding the stock considered the best in the pack — Bharti Airtel. Instead, they are going for Reliance Communications despite all the controversy surrounding it, of late.

It is rumoured that some leading HNIs have aggressively bought RCom in the Rs 160-175 range. The thinking in the contrarian camp is that Bharti is ‘overowned’, as many institutions have been mopping up its shares amid its sharp decline over the past few month.

Contributed by Apurv Gupta & Nishanth Vasudevan

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Is China's economy headed for a crash?

SHANGHAI: James Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose

stories were too good to be true.

Now Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 — or worse", he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8%.

"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.

As America's pre-eminent short-seller — he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail — Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.

Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal and steel.

Chanos, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal. He has been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.

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India sets new lot sizes for stocks derivatives

MUMBAI: Indian markets regulator said on Friday it would standardize lot size for stock derivatives based on their value from March

31.

Under the new guideline, stock derivatives priced above 1,600 rupees ($35) will have a lot size of 125 units, while those priced above 800 rupees but below 1,600 would be tradeable in lots of 250 and for above 400 rupees in 500 units.

Share derivatives priced between 201 to 400 rupees would have a lot of 1,000 units; between 101 and 200 rupees in lots of 2,000 units; 51 to 100 rupees at 4,000 units and 25 to 50 rupees in lots of 8,000.

All derivatives priced below 25 rupees will be tradeable in multiples of 1,000, the Securities and Exchange Board of India said in a statement.

The regulator said stock exchanges would review lot sizes every six months, based on the average closing price of the underlying for the last one month. Any revision in lots would be done after at least a two-week notice and any higher lot would be applicable only to new contracts.

Src: ET