Discover Stock Market India Nifty Bank Nifty Technicals Analysis & India Business Stories

This blog is for providing daily news of Corporate Indian Stories, Corporate Results, Equities, MFs, Banking,Insurance, Brokerages Informations, World Business, Venture Capital, Angel Investors, BSchools, MBAs,Jobs, Politics & something Interesting.Our team will be grateful to the owners of various Indian/world/govt sites to refer their sites to get INFORMATION without objection.Request viewers to make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.

17 January 2010

Stock Reports for the Week Started Jan 18

Heard on the street

HUL quarterly numbers seen below expectations

Consumer goods major HUL seems to have a new obsession, that of holding its board meeting and announcing its quarterly results on public holidays. The company has issued a communication to stock exchanges that its board meeting will be held on January 26 to consider the unaudited financial accounts for the quarter ended December 2009, along with the limited review report of the auditors for the corresponding period.

The last quarterly results were also announced on a Sunday. Market watchers are amused by this move considering that multinationals as a rule begin their weekends on Friday evening every week. This has also led to some speculation that the company’s quarterly numbers may be below market expectations.

Old Fox & gang looking for quick returns lap up Dish TV

DISH TV shares were among the notable gainers in Friday’s lacklustre session, rising nearly 7% to close at Rs 50.35. On BSE, around 90 lakh shares, thrice the two-week daily average volume in the stock, were traded on BSE, with 42% of it resulting in delivery. Dealers tracking the counter say Old Fox and gang were big buyers at the counter on Friday.

It is not clear if the Fox is in it for the long haul or is merely looking for some quick returns. While the company continues to post losses at the net level, it has shown a good growth in revenues for the half year ended September. Also, it appears that the company may end the current financial year with much lower losses compared with last year.

Contrarian play seen at bank counters ahead credit policy

WITH the indecisive movements in benchmark indices giving little opportunities to trade, smart traders are using their skills to make money in sectoral plays. They have sold stock futures of banks and capital goods, while bought that of oil and information technology. But some bravehearts within the trader community have suddenly reversed their short positions in banks, two weeks before RBI’s monetary and credit policy review.

They are going against the crowd on judgement that the undertone has been too pessimistic about the outcome of the policy review. It is widely expected that the central bank may hike cash reserve ratio, but a slight dip in bond yields this week, even as inflation rate showed a jump, has these traders go contrarian. Derivative market participants said some of these traders have created long positions in futures and options contracts in banks.

Contributed by Kala Vijayraghavan, Santosh Nair & Nishanth Vasudevan

*****************************************
HDFC Bank looks able to maintain interest margin

Jindal Saw: Maximising capacity usage to drive future nos

TCS: Fresh hiring indicates hopes of recovery soon

Inflation: Key issue in credit policy review

******************************************

Geodesic Ltd

McNally Bharat Engineering

Allahabad Bank

IPO Analysis - Jubilant Foodworks

Axis Bank

ONGC Ltd

HDFC Bank

Weekly Watch - Jan 16 2010

Oudh sugar, Engineers India Limited

Gitanjali Gems

Usha Martin

Jubilant Foodworks - Subscribe

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Nifty bear put spread
A better-than-expected start to the Q3 earnings season and strong IIP readings failed to enthuse traders as the markets closed the week on almost a ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Shree Renuka may move in narrow range
Suzlon (Rs 89.7): After reaching its recent high at around Rs 95, the stock has seen some weakness. Now, only a close above Rs 95 could lift the stock to Rs 110-115 levels. But if current dull trend sustains, Suzlon might head back towards ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner: Hindalco to move towards a new high
Please let me know the outlook for ABB bought at Rs 1,200 and IVRCL at Rs 484 from a medium and long-term ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals- Reliance Industries (Rs 1,109.2)
Reliance Industries witnessed wild intra-day swings last week though the ending was on an insipid note with a meagre Rs 4 gain. The near-term view for the stock stays positive but the resistance at Rs 1130 needs to be cleared before the ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Roadblocks ahead
IT bellwethers, Infosys and TCS began the third quarter earnings season with a flourish, making the BSE IT index rally 9 per cent higher last week. But this optimism failed to percolate to rest of the market resulting in Sensex meandering in ...

Upside breakout seen next week

Src: ET, DP Blog , Businessline and etc

16 January 2010

Stock Analysis from Other Blogs/Webs

Satyam: Line of Confidence

One Breakout and One Breakdown Play

Random Observations

MTNL - Only Listed Telecom Company Having 3G License

IDBI Bank moves ahead on bank buy and update

Tea without Sugar

Airlines Views!!!

TATA Coffee!!!

*******************************************

I have Found TWO Useful Web/BLogs Which serves Good For the Stock Market Investors.. Please make use of that Website Articles and get benefit.

http://www.stateofthemarket.net

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/

*******************************************

Src: Leading Weblogs.

Results Corner

15 January 2010

Heard on the street

Heard on the street

Speculation over Welspun Gujarat-MSK Projects

buy

TALK of Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren looking to buy MSK Projects refuses to die despite the latter denying it. Grapevine has it that discussion between Welspun and MSK for the deal is in the final stage and will be announced soon. It is also speculated that MSK promoters are likely to offload their stake at Rs 140 a piece, followed by an open offer to buy another 20% from minority shareholders.

On Thursday, MSK shares fell 3% to Rs 120.65. Welspun shares fell 1% to Rs 279.50. Promoters hold 21.68% in MSK, while Subhkam Venture holds 23.66%, as on September 30. MSK officials were not available to comment on the matter.

Mid-cap cement stocks back in demand

INVESTORS took a fancy to midcap cement stocks on Thursday on talk that cement prices were likely to firm up soon. Stocks like Binani Cement, Andhra Cement, Saurashtra Cement, Dalmia Cement, Shree Cement and Prism Cement were among the prominent gainers, rising between 3-6 %.

Analysts tracking the sector say fund houses have been steadily buying cement shares in anticipation of further growth in the construction sector. According to them, many cement companies are set to increase prices further, sensing good demand in the residential property segment. Indian cement industry is witnessing a growth rate of about 8%, the fastest growing market next to China.

Satyam Computer basks in IT glory

SHARES of Satyam Computer are seeing a renewed burst of activity. Probably, strong quarterly numbers from Infosys Technologies could have raised expectations from other leading IT services companies as well. On Thursday, a US-based investor is said to have bought close to 30 lakh shares. Some of the bull operators too are said to be steadily building up long positions at the counter.

Dealers tracking the counter say the rise in the stock price from hereon may be a bit gradual, since many players who are tired of holding on to the stock may decide to cash in. The stock had touched a high of Rs 128 in September last year, but has been moving in a narrow band ever since. On Thursday, the stock closed at Rs 120.85, up 1.2% from the previous close. On the BSE, 1.23 crore shares changed hands, with roughly a fourth of it resulting in delivery.

Contributed by Nishanth Vasudevan & Apurv Gupta

***********************
Top 5 picks

***********************

Src: ET

14 January 2010

Heard on the street

14 Jan 2010, 0356 hrs IST, ET Bureau

Save

Comment

Text:

Scooters India seen riding the divestment

wave

A group of punters appear to have taken control of the Scooters India stock. Shares of the loss-making public sector undertaking (PSU) hit a 52-week high of Rs 45.45, amid a sudden surge in volumes, and ended the day at Rs 44, up 14% over the previous close. Around 13.6 lakh shares changed hands on Wednesday, compared to an average daily volume of around 8,000 shares on most trading sessions in the past three months.

The stock has risen nearly 60% this month alone. Cornering the stock does not need too much capital, considering that the non-promoter holding in the company is barely 20 lakh shares. With divestment being the flavour of the season, PSU shares are suddenly in demand.

It is not too difficult for an operator to whip up volumes in an illiquid stock and then unload the shares to the unsuspecting public by spreading the divestment story. There were more than a dozen bulk deals in the stock on Wednesday, with all of them being squared off before close of trading.

The sudden interest in the stock by arbitrageurs does raise eyebrows, considering the illiquid nature of the stock. Of the 13 players who took up positions at the counter, 8 squared off their positions for a small loss, two barely managed to break even, and four made a small profit. Scooters India made a net loss of Rs 2.27 crore for FY09, and a net loss of Rs 1.2 crore for the half year ended September 2009.

Alarm bells ringing for second-rung stocks

IS THE rally in second-line stocks close to peaking out? Yes, say some dealers, pointing out to the fact that money-making is becoming a bit too easy.

“We get at least half-a-dozen tips daily with likely price targets over the next few days,” says a dealer at an institutional brokerage. “But, of late, the target prices are being attained before the specified period. That is too fast for comfort,” he says.

NTPC follow-on offer may open on Feb 3

THE FOLLOW-ON public offering of NTPC is likely to start from February 3-5, according to people involved with the process. The company along with government officials and bankers has started meeting domestic institutional investors including insurance companies and mutual funds to gauge investor appetite for the Rs-11,000 crore share sale.

The company filed its offer document with Sebi on Tuesday and is likely to be flexible in the new auction process by not placing any cap either in terms of the number of shares or percentage to issued capital. Investment bankers say that the success of the NTPC issue will play a crucial role in the government’s future disinvestment plan.

Contributed by Santosh Nair & Reena Zachariah

Src:ET

13 January 2010

Is China the next Enron?

Is China the next Enron?

TAIWAN: Reading The Herald Tribune over breakfast in Hong Kong harbor last week, my eye went to the front-page story about how James Chanos —

reportedly one of America's most successful short-sellers, the man who bet that Enron was a fraud and made a fortune when that proved true and its stock collapsed — is now warning that China is "Dubai times 1,000 or worse" and looking for ways to short that country's economy before its bubbles burst.

China's markets may be full of bubbles ripe for a short-seller, and if Chanos can find a way to make money shorting them, God bless him. But after visiting Hong Kong and Taiwan this past week and talking to many people who work and invest their own money in China, I'd offer Chanos two notes of caution.

First, a simple rule of investing that has always served me well: Never short a country with $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves.

Second, it is easy to look at China today and see its enormous problems and things that it is not getting right. For instance, low interest rates, easy credit, an undervalued currency and hot money flowing in from abroad have led to what the Chinese government Sunday called "excessively rising house prices" in major cities, or what some might call a speculative bubble ripe for the shorting.

In the last few days, though, China's central bank has started edging up interest rates and raising the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves - precisely to head off inflation and take some air out of any asset bubbles.

And that's the point. I am reluctant to sell China short, not because I think it has no problems or corruption or bubbles, but because I think it has all those problems in spades - and some will blow up along the way (the most dangerous being pollution). But it also has a political class focused on addressing its real problems, as well as a mountain of savings with which to do so (unlike us).

And here is the other thing to keep in mind. Think about all the hype, all the words, that have been written about China's economic development since 1979. It's a lot, right? What if I told you this: "It may be that we haven't seen anything yet."

Why do I say that? All the long-term investments that China has made over the last two decades are just blossoming and could really propel the Chinese economy into the 21st-century knowledge age, starting with its massive investment in infrastructure. Ten years ago, China had a lot bridges and roads to nowhere.

Well, many of them are now connected. It is also on a crash program of building subways in major cities and high-speed trains to interconnect them. China also now has 400 million Internet users, and 200 million of them have broadband. Check into a motel in any major city and you'll have broadband access. America has about 80 million broadband users.

Now take all this infrastructure and mix it together with 27 million students in technical colleges and universities - the most in the world. With just the normal distribution of brains, that's going to bring a lot of brainpower to the market, or, as Bill Gates once said to me: "In China, when you're one-in-a-million, there are 1,300 other people just like you."

Equally important, more and more Chinese students educated abroad are returning home to work and start new businesses. I had lunch with a group of professors at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, or HKUST, who told me that this year they will be offering some 50 full scholarships for graduate students in science and technology. Major US universities are sharply cutting back.

Tony Chan, a Hong Kong-born mathematician, recently returned from America after 20 years to become the new president of HKUST. What was his last job in America? Assistant director of the U.S. National Science Foundation in charge of the mathematical and physical sciences. He's one of many coming home.

One of the biggest problems for China's manufacturing and financial sectors has been finding capable middle managers. The reverse-brain drain is eliminating that problem as well.

Finally, as Liu Chao-shiuan, Taiwan's former prime minister, pointed out to me: When Taiwan moved up the value chain from low-end, labor-intensive manufacturing to higher, value-added work, its factories moved to China or Vietnam. It lost them. In China, low-end manufacturing moves from coastal China to the less developed Western part of the country and becomes an engine for development there. In Taiwan, factories go up and out. In China, they go East to West.

"China knows it has problems," said Liu. "But this is the first time it has a chance to actually solve them." Taiwanese entrepreneurs now have more than 70,000 factories in China. They know the place. So I asked several Taiwanese businessmen whether they would "short" China. They vigorously shook their heads no as if I'd asked if they'd go one on one with LeBron James.

But, hey, some people said the same about Enron. Still, I'd rather bet against the euro. Shorting China today? Well, good luck with that, Mr Chanos. Let us know how it works out for you.

****************************************
Markets Review: Sensex closes above 17500; IT, metals lead

China CRR hike sends rate sensitives in a tizzy

*****************************************

Src: Economictimes.com

Results Corner

12 January 2010

Heard on the Street

Heard on the Street

Investors lap up shares of PSUs ahead of FPOs
Savvy traders are said to be accumulating shares of public sector undertakings such as

NTPC, Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) and National Mining Development Corporation (NMDC), which have lined up follow-on public offerings (FPOs). Officials at investment banks say the companies will be going in for the auction method, as the government is looking to maximise its collection from the sale of shares.

Punters are betting that institutional investors will bid at a decent premium to market price if they hope to be allotted the quantity they have bid for. The highest bid could then set the benchmark for the stock price, punters feel. REC shares rose 5% to close at Rs 252.50, NMDC gained 3.6% to
close at Rs 434, and NTPC closed 1% up at Rs 233.10.

Rar(e)ing Bull, loyalists take fancy to GIC Housing
Trade volumes in the GIC Housing Finance stock have shot up over the past few sessions. The counter witnessed a few bulk deals on Thursday and Friday, with Caledonia Investments, the largest institutional investor in the company, offloading nearly 32 lakh shares of the 51 lakh shares it held in its portfolio. Stock exchange websites (BSE and NSE) have no details of the buyers.

Buzz is that the Rar(e)ing Bull and his loyalists have been accumulating the shares. The Bull has publicly said that he’s no fan of real estate companies. But it looks like he doesn’t mind betting on sectors
that stand to gain if property developers do well.

Sebi wants to trace route of mutual fund ‘trail’
Not long ago, Sebi had slammed mutual fund houses for demanding a no-objection certificate from investors who wished to change distributors. The issue is back in focus, with a section of the industry protesting that some AMCs have continued to pass on trail to the ‘old’ distributor, despite knowing that it amounts to restrictive trade practice.

Perception is that companies want to protect old distributors who had bought in the client. Talk is that the regulator is taking a serious view of the issue and is likely to check whether trail has been going to the old distributor despite an investor having indicated otherwise. The issue clearly highlights the divide between larger and smaller asset management companies (AMCs).

Contributed by Reena Zachariah, Santosh Nair & Deeptha Rajkumar

******************************************

Mid-term picks of the day | Top 5 picks of the day

******************************************

Morning Newsletters - Jan 12 2010

Infinite Computer Solutions - Apply or Avoid ?

NTPC Ltd

ACE

IRB Infrastructure Developers

Themes for 2010

Ranbaxy

Src: Economictimes, Deadpresident Blog and etc

11 January 2010

Range bound trading continues

The market hit a new 52-week high in the first full week of trading. But volumes tapered off and prices dropped towards the weekend. The Nifty closed at 5,244.75 points with a gain of 0.8 per cent after climbing to 5,310. The Sensex was up 0.4 per cent, closing at 17,540. The Defty gained 2.75 per cent as the rupee strengthened sharply.

Breadth indicators were good with advances comfortably outnumbering declines despite Friday's sell off. The rupee's strength was partly due to committed buying from FIIs and domestic institutions were also net buyers. The Nifty Junior was up 2.7 per cent while the BSE 500 rose 1.7 per cent. The Midcaps also outperformed the Nifty, rising 3.8 per cent. Volumes were on the low side.

Outlook: The market is liable to range between 5,150 and 5,300 next week and the initial bias could be negative. Any breakouts could lead to a 150-200 point swing if there's a volume expansion with the breakout. That is, if the market drops to a close below 5,150, it could drop till around 4,950 and if it rises to close beyond 5,300, it could test 5,400-5,450.

Rationale: The poor advance-decline situation on Friday (when most stocks closed lower than Thursday) suggests a short-term decline. However, there is very strong support in the erstwhile zone of resistance between 5,150 and 5,180. On the upside, there is a lot of resistance between 5,275 and 5,300. To clear that resistance, it will require serious volume expansion. Even the 5,400-5,450 zone has massive trading history, so the Northwards journey will need lots of fuel.

Counter-view: The long-term trend is firmly up. The absence of volatility in the past two-three weeks can be explained to some extent by the lack of volume, which in turn is partly due to the holiday season. If volumes improve, as they should, over the next 5-10 sessions, prices are likely to show an upward trend. The one serious danger would be a pullout by FIIs.

Bulls & bears: The IT sector was hit hard by the rupee rise – most of the majors have seen selloffs and the CNXIT dropped 3.7 per cent this week. Results are soon due for Infosys and TCS, and the market sentiment seems bearish. One exception is Mahindra Satyam, which climbed last week. Banking appears to be past a recent bearish phase and it will probably outperform the market. IDFC and Axis Bank may beat the overall financial sector.

Realty made a strong comeback on Friday with most of the big guns rising, but part of this may have been short-covering ahead of the weekend. Engineering and construction stocks like HCC, GMR Infra, Nagarjuna Construction, Maytas and Jyoti Structures also did well. Automobile shares saw profit-booking. But, auto ancillaries such as Bharat Forge, Bosch India and Sona Steering saw bullish backing. Non-ferrous metal stocks also saw buying and Sterlite and Hindalco continue to look interesting. There was scattered stock-specific interest in counters like Suzlon, GE Shipping, JP Associates and NTPC.

MICRO TECHNICALS

INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE
Current Price: Rs 227.40
Target Price: Rs 245

The stock has started a recovery on short-covering from around Rs 215. There is sufficient momentum for a rise till around the Rs 245-250 mark. Keep a stop at around Rs 220 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 232 and Rs 235 and start booking profits at Rs 245.

ESSAR SHIPPING
Current Price: Rs 80.90
Target Price: Rs 90

The stock has seen a relatively recent trend reversal to positive. It had massive volume expansion in the past few sessions. It could have the potential to move till around the Rs 90 mark. Keep a stop at Rs 78 and go long.

HUL
Current Price: Rs 265.95
Target Price: Rs 280

The stock has seen selling that has pushed it down to a good support. It could bounce till around the Rs 275-280 levels. Keep a stop at Rs 262 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 275 and clear the position at Rs 280.

TCS
Current Price: Rs 699.80
Target Price: Rs 680

A sharp reaction has started from a recent high of Rs 760. Volumes have increased as the price has fallen, which is usually a danger signal. There is some support at current levels but the next reliable support is at Rs 680. Keep a stop at Rs 705 and go short. Cover at Rs 680.

STERLITE INDUSTRIES
Current Price: Rs 906.35
Target Price: Rs 940

The stock has completed a bullish breakout with some volume expansion. The target would be about Rs 940. Keep a trailing stop at Rs 890 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 915 and Rs 920 and raise the stop to Rs 910. Start booking profits at Rs 935.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)