20 January 2010

MOrning Calls


Two Attractive Mid Cap Stocks Sanjay Chhabria


Sanjay Chhabria

Jan 19, 2009

Manaksia Ltd (Rs 108) (Rs 2 Paid Up)

(BSE Code – 532932, NSE Code - MANAKSIA)

(P/E - 6.5, FY’09 Net Sales - Rs1,485 cr, Market Cap - Rs750 cr)

Manaksia Limited (formerly Hindusthan Seals Ltd., incorporated in 1984) is a multi-division and multi-location conglomerate. It possesses 15 manufacturing plants in India and three abroad; two in Nigeria and one in Ghana. Manaksia specialises in the manufacture of packaging products (crowns, closures and metal containers), metal products and fast moving consumer goods, among others. The company's metal packaging products include crowns, roll-on pilfer-proof closures, expanded polyethylene liners as well as push-open and other metal containers. In the fast moving consumer goods segment, the company is a dependable mosquito repellents outsourcing destination for the Mortein (owned by Reckitt Benckiser (India) Limited) and Maxo (owned by Jyothy Laboratories) brands. The company has now diversified into the production of aluminium rolled products, secondary specification aluminium alloys and galvanised steel. The company’s wholly owned subsidiary in Nigeria, MINL Limited, was set up in 1996 and is the market leader in ROPP caps and crown corks in Nigeria. It has also set up facilities for the manufacture of galvanised steel, metal colour coated sheets and coils and secondary specification aluminium alloys. The company also has subsidiary companies in Ghana (Dynatech Industries Ghana Limited) and Dubai (Euroasian Ventures FZE).

Manaksia manufactures value-added metal products and metal packaging products. The Kolkata-headquartered Manaksia Group is India’s largest secondary producer of value-added aluminium rolled products with 15 manufacturing facilities in the country and three abroad. The business of the Manaksia can be categorised into metal products, packaging products, mosquito coils, and engineering and other goods. For funding its expansion plans and general corporate purposes, the company had come with an IPO of Rs 248 cr., comprising fresh issue of 155 lakh shares at Rs 160 per share(Rs 2 paid up) in December 2007.

Manaksia has vertically integrated across a number of products, resulting in reduction in manufacturing cost. Its metal-management skills and innovations in manufacturing and product enhancement have enabled it to manufacture advanced metal packaging products and retain and add customers like Hindusthan Coca Cola Beverages (Coke), Reckitt Benckiser, Dabur India, Jyothy Laboratories, Eveready Industries and McDowell Group and other major beer and liquor manufacturers. The aluminium division has attracted reputed alloy ingot users like TVS Motor, Orient Fans and Toyota Tsusho Corporation as customers. The company does the bulk of its business in Nigeria, which offers two main advantages. One, it gets aluminium scraps at a cheaper rate compared to international prices since the export of aluminium scrap is banned by the Nigerian government. Second, it gets cash incentives on export of the finished products. Since the company has been getting this benefit for more than a decade, it expects this trend to continue for the next few years too.

In the fiscal 2008-09, Manaksia’s consolidated net sales stood at Rs 1,485.06 cr., up from Rs 1,147.37 cr. in 2007-08. The consolidated profit after tax in 2007-08 was Rs 106.3 cr. (Rs 128.19 cr.). This translated into an EPS of Rs 15.3 on Rs 2 paid up share(Equity-13.9 cr. Promoters’stake- 58.1%) and P/E multiple of 5.3 at its current price of 82. A 110% dividend (Rs 2.2 on equity shares of the face value of Rs 2 each) was declared for 2008-09. For the half year ended Sept. 2009, Manaksia has posted net profit of Rs 56.62 cr. on net sales of Rs 596 cr. on consolidated basis. The EPS for half year stands at Rs 8.14

Going forward, the company plans to focus on its metal business, which mainly consists of steel and aluminium-rolled products. Manaksia claims to be the largest player in secondary aluminium rolling in India. This gives the company economies of scale and helps it to reduce raw material costs, thereby resulting in better operating margins. The company has strong technical know-how in producing value-added metal products and expects to leverage this to generate higher profits. Some of the company’s metal products are also supplied to auto majors like Maruti Suzuki and Toyota. The management expects the metal business will grow at decent rates in coming years on a conservative basis. At current levels, the stock trades at 7 times its FY2009 earnings(Rs 15.3) and 6.5 times its estimated FY 2010 earnings(Rs 16-17). Investors can start accumulating the stock at current levels and add more on declines for decent returns of 40%-45% over the next 6-8 months.

Repro India Ltd (Rs 113)

(BSE Code- 532687 NSE Code- REPRO)

(P/E- 7, Promoters’ stake-68.78%, Market Cap - Rs117 cr)

Repro India Limited is one of the few integrated print solution provider and a manufacturer and exporter of books in the highly fragmented printing industry. Its solutions include content management, configuration to content delivery and the entire supply chain for publishers. The Indian Printing industry has managed to grow at a CAGR of 14% over the last 25 years. to touch Rs 1100 cr.. That is almost twice the GDP growth rate. Repro has successfully evolved from a printing press to an end-to-end print solutions provider. The company provides value-added printing and prints related solutions to major publishing houses, corporates and software companies. The clients of the company include publishing houses such as Alligator Books, Macmillan, Orient Longman, Oxford University Press ; software companies Microsoft , Oracle, IBM; and Indian corporates including Tata Steel, Infosys, Wipro etc. RIL had come with an IPO in November 2005 at Rs 165 per share and raised Rs 43.2 cr.. RIL’s equity stands at 10.47 cr. out of which promoters hold 68.78% while the public holding is 15.19%.

Through content process outsourcing, Repro offers content, creativity and designing. It provides desktop publishing, ideation, content creation, designing, illustration and copywriting. Content Process outsourcing is another large opportunity for India and holds great potential as we have a low cost talent pool, design and creative capabilities and knowledge of English language. Countries like USA and the UK, which are considered among the largest markets for printing industry, are increasingly looking at outsourcing to low cost countries such as India. Repro offers print solutions for educational and children’s books for the publishing industry and annual reports and other corporate print solutions for corporates. Digital printing is utilised for IT industry and print on demand (POD). It also services the insurance industry through POD. Repro is also into contractual publishing—magazine printing and others like replication of CDs and stock management activities

For the half year ended Sept. 2009, Repro posted Adjusted net profit of Rs 8.8 cr.(down 23%) on net sales of Rs 103.5 cr. (down 4%). EBIDTA fell 12% to Rs 16.8 cr. and net profit fell 45% to Rs 5.13 cr.. The major reason for fall in sales was that the impact of the global meltdown which led to delay in execution of large no. of export orders on account of Repro waiting for the client to tie up for the money or open the LC’s.. The situation has changed now and the growth prospects look optimistic in the coming quarters. Repro has an order book position of about Rs 130 cr.(of which Rs 35 cr. is domestic and rest is exports) to be executed in the next six months.

Repro had posted a healthy 57% growth in topline to Rs. 241 cr, for FY09 while net profit grew just 6.5% at Rs 16.55 cr..(up 6.5%) due to forex losses of 16.5 cr.. On a equity of 10.47 cr., the EPS stood at Rs 15.75 and the dividend declared was 25%. Almost 35% of the company’s turnover comes from exports. Its exports business holds significant revenue upsides as it shifts focus from straight printing to content process outsourcing(CPO). As the company would be focusing on CPO for its foreign clients it expects margins to grow in future. The expansion at Surat SEZ and Vashi units will also bring benefits this year. As the company scales up its business and sets up infrastructure to support its expansion in the exports market, it expects higher realizations in the years to come. The Repro stock appears attractive as it is valued at about 7.5 times expected FY10E(Rs 15) and at 5.6 times FY11E earnings(Rs 20). On account of increasing contribution from higher margin businesses and attractive valuations, the stock holds good potential for appreciation in the medium-long term. Investors can start accumulating the stock at current levels and add more on declines for decent returns of 40%-45% over the next 6-8 months.

valueinv@sify.com

9893200307

Sanjay Chhabria is an equity analyst and investment consultant based at Raipur (Chhattisgarh). At the time of writing this, he doesn’t have any position in the stocks mentioned above. He is bringing a weekly Investment newsletter "Market-View" since April 2001 to help small (retail) investors take an informed investment decision. He invites Readers to send him email to get free 1 week trial offer of "Market –View". He also appears on CNBC TV 18(Mid cap radar). He welcomes comments, feedback & investor queries at valueinv@sify.com.

Under no circumstances does the information in this report represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute a solicitation to any person to buy or sell a security. While the information contained therein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for the accuracy of its contents. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions and are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments.





MTNL: Cash is king Rathin Shah
IDFC: Buy at CMP Rs158 KRChoksey
Technical calls: EID Parry, Financial Technologies, Canara Bank HDFC Sec


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Top 5 picks of the day I Mid term picks of the day

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Heard on the street



Satyam Computer down over 5% on L&T exit

buzz


Satyam Computer shares were among the biggest losers on Tuesday, shedding over 5% to close at Rs 110.35. Buzz is that L&T, one of the largest shareholders, is likely to exit its position in Satyam in the next few days. According to market buzz, Dubai-headquartered Legatum Group is among FIIs interested in picking up a slice of L&T’s 4.9% stake in the company.

Jubilant IPO door seen shut for many retail clients

Jubilant Foodworks’ IPO will close on Wednesday, but for many of a broker’s clients in Mumbai suburbs, the issue is as good as closed on Tuesday. The broker, which is also a mutual fund distributor, has told clients that he won’t not accept applications for this IPO in any of his branches on Wednesday. The reason cited is the logistical difficulties to carry the forms to the head office on the last day before 3 pm. Such reasoning is surprising, as many retail investors usually apply on the last day of an IPO.

Stock trading over mobile may soon be a reality

Sebi is said to be examining a proposal to introduce equity trading over mobile. Market buzz is that the regulator is considering certain security protocol issues connected to mobile trading and once those are resolved will kick start the facility. When introduced, mobile trading is expected to boost online trading as currently mobile penetration is a lot deeper than personal computers.

Bulls lap up ICICI on hopes of strong Q3 numbers

SHARES of ICICI Bank have been inching up in the past three trading sessions, defying the sluggish trend in frontline shares in general. On Tuesday, the stock held ground in a falling market, closing flat at Rs 863.40. One of the theories doing the rounds is that traders are loading up on the stock in anticipation that the third quarter numbers due on Thursday will be better than market expectations. But equity analysts feel that looks unlikely at the moment. The other talk is that some of the foreign broking firms are taking a more positive view on the stock of late and have been enthusiastically recommending it to their clients. It is not known if the recommendations have actually translated into buy orders.

Contributed by Santosh Nair,Deeptha Rajkumar & Nishanth Vasudevan.

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Tata Power


Daily Newsletters - Jan 20 2010


ENIL


GAIL


Sterlite Industries, Ultratech Cements


Jaiprakash Associates, Sintex Industries


Infotech Enterprises


Bharat Forge, Escorts


Top Picks


Indian Wireless




Src: ET, DP Blog and Valuenotes etc

18 January 2010

Morning Calls

Wait for a breakout



The market remained tightly range-bound with only nominal movements among the major indices. The Nifty was up 0.1 per cent at 5,252.2 points while the Sensex gained even less in closing at 17,554 points. The Defty gained 0.3 per cent as the rupee strengthened further.

Volumes were on the low side but advances outnumbered declines, so breadth indicators were not bad. Both FIIs and domestic institutions were net buyers in moderate quantities. The BSE 500 rose by about 0.7 per cent while the Midcaps rose 1.85 per cent. However, the standout performer was the CNXIT index, which was up by a startling 9 per cent.

Outlook: The Nifty stayed locked in the narrow range of 5,170-5,300 and predicting direction will be impossible unless it closes outside say 5,150-5,320. A breakout should trigger a move of around 150-200 points, as and when it comes. There is previous history of very heavy trading between 5,000-5,400, so it will take volume expansion to breakout and establish a trend.

Rationale: The long-term trend is firmly up. But the intermediate trend is difficult to read and the short term trend is neutral. Volatility has been very low for several weeks. Given previous congestion at the current price levels, major volume expansion is required to trigger breakouts. Right now, volume is just not there and direction cannot be established until it occurs.

Counter-view: Low volume is associated with range-trading but also with lack of demand. Hence, one may fear a downtrend. The intermediate trend has been up since late November and is now in week seven. Intermediate trends can mature any time between 4-12 weeks. If the market does slide below 4,950, it will hit the next support at 4,800. Below 4,800, the intermediate trend would be likely to reverse, since a pattern of lower lows will be established.

Bulls & bears: The CNXIT, as mentioned above, saw strong gains. This was driven by decent results and good advisories from Infosys and TCS. All the IT majors appear in bullish mode. Tech Mahindra, Wipro and Financial Technologies could be outperformers. However, further rupee strengthening could also retard the sector's momentum.

Balancing the CNXIT, the Bank Nifty lost nearly 2 per cent and few financial sector scrips looked capable of bucking fears of higher rates or CRR hikes. On Friday, it appeared however that a few scrips like Axis Bank and Federal Bank had weathered the bearishness. The real estate sector saw mixed trading with some sell offs but Purvankara and Brigade also did well. Metals including non-ferrous metals were also weak but cement did well with ACC and Ambuja finding buyers.

PSUs did well in general with counters such as REC, Neyveli, SCI, Engineers India, BEML, Concor, NTPC, all finding support as rumours of disinvestment abounded. Winners and losers were scattered randomly outside these sectors. Tata Motors and Power Grid were among the scrips that ended strong as did Lupin and Cipla.

MICRO TECHNICALS

AMBUJA CEMENT
Current Price: Rs 113.25
Target Price: Rs 120

The stock has made an upside breakout backed by strong volumes. It has the potential to run up till around the Rs 120 mark though it will hit strong resistance above Rs 118. Keep a stop at Rs 109 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 118.


FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES
Current Price: Rs 1,620
Target Price: N.A.

The stock is testing key resistance between Rs 1,625-1,645. If it closes above Rs 1,635, it could move till the Rs 1,750 level. Volumes are good. Keep a stop at Rs 1,600 and go long. Add to the position above Rs 1,635. Book partial profits at Rs 1,700.




SCI

Current Price: Rs 172.70
Target Price: Rs 185

The stock is benefiting from a focus on PSUs as well as a bounce in the shipping sector. It has risen on volume expansion. There's very little resistance until around Rs 185 and that would be a potential target. Keep a stop at Rs 167 and go long.


AXIS BANK
Current Price: Rs 1,078
Target Price: Rs 1,120

Axis shows signs of a breakout, which is against the trend in the banking sector. It has cleared resistance at Rs 1,055 and it could run up till somewhere between Rs 1,100-1,130. Keep a stop at Rs 1,065 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 1,110.


PURVANKARA PROJECTS
Current Price: Rs 115.75
Target Price: Rs 130

The stock has jumped on volume expansion. It's testing resistance at Rs 120 and will hit that level again, on intra-day basis at least. If it closes above Rs 120, it could run till the Rs 130 level or higher. Keep a stop at Rs 110 and go long. Add to this above Rs 120 and book profits at Rs 130.



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'Stick to bottom-up, buy on dips and hold strategy' 18-JAN-10
In the second series of interviews for Smart Portfolios, Amar Ambani talks about his expectations for 2010, reveals his strategy of sticking to mid-caps and suggests that investors look at individual stocks rather than sectors for the year.
Markets at a glance 18-JAN-10
The markets traded in a narrow range this week in spite of stellar numbers from Infosys.
Analysts' corner 18-JAN-10
The brokerage has revised earnings downwards and thus has cut the company’s 20010-12 EPS estimates by 8-11 per cent.
Premiums drop due to low volatility 18-JAN-10
The market saw practically no change in the major index levels in what is turning into an extended phase of very low volatility.
Wait for a breakout 18-JAN-10
The market remained tightly range-bound with only nominal movements among the major indices.
Alpha India updated 18-JAN-10
The January 4 yearly outlook carried numeric ranking for 50 Nifty Stocks.
Bharti: Looking out 18-JAN-10
India’s largest wireless service provider, Bharti Airtel is expanding its international operations by buying a majority stake in Bangladesh’s fourth largest wireless telephony service provider, Warid Telecom.
Bajaj: Motoring ahead 18-JAN-10
Buoyed by the demand for its Discover range of motorcycles, the country’s second largest two-wheeler maker, Bajaj Auto, posted healthy numbers for the second quarter in a row.
Green shoots are for real 18-JAN-10
Infosys Technologies’ December 2009 quarter results brought an air of optimism into the sector.
Pricey pizza 18-JAN-10
As the frequency of eating out or preference for fast food increases, players in the take-away or home-delivery space should benefit.
The PSU opportunity 18-JAN-10
Many would have reservations about investing in public sectors companies (PSUs) due to reasons such as government interference and so on.


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Weekly Newsletter - Jan 18 2010


Weekly Newsletter - Jan 17 2010



Top 5 picks of the day I Mid-term picks





Src:ET, Business-Standard and DP Blog and etc

17 January 2010

Stock Reports for the Week Started Jan 18

Heard on the street


HUL quarterly numbers seen below expectations



Consumer goods major HUL seems to have a new obsession, that of holding its board meeting and announcing its quarterly results on public holidays. The company has issued a communication to stock exchanges that its board meeting will be held on January 26 to consider the unaudited financial accounts for the quarter ended December 2009, along with the limited review report of the auditors for the corresponding period.

The last quarterly results were also announced on a Sunday. Market watchers are amused by this move considering that multinationals as a rule begin their weekends on Friday evening every week. This has also led to some speculation that the company’s quarterly numbers may be below market expectations.

Old Fox & gang looking for quick returns lap up Dish TV

DISH TV shares were among the notable gainers in Friday’s lacklustre session, rising nearly 7% to close at Rs 50.35. On BSE, around 90 lakh shares, thrice the two-week daily average volume in the stock, were traded on BSE, with 42% of it resulting in delivery. Dealers tracking the counter say Old Fox and gang were big buyers at the counter on Friday.

It is not clear if the Fox is in it for the long haul or is merely looking for some quick returns. While the company continues to post losses at the net level, it has shown a good growth in revenues for the half year ended September. Also, it appears that the company may end the current financial year with much lower losses compared with last year.

Contrarian play seen at bank counters ahead credit policy

WITH the indecisive movements in benchmark indices giving little opportunities to trade, smart traders are using their skills to make money in sectoral plays. They have sold stock futures of banks and capital goods, while bought that of oil and information technology. But some bravehearts within the trader community have suddenly reversed their short positions in banks, two weeks before RBI’s monetary and credit policy review.

They are going against the crowd on judgement that the undertone has been too pessimistic about the outcome of the policy review. It is widely expected that the central bank may hike cash reserve ratio, but a slight dip in bond yields this week, even as inflation rate showed a jump, has these traders go contrarian. Derivative market participants said some of these traders have created long positions in futures and options contracts in banks.

Contributed by Kala Vijayraghavan, Santosh Nair & Nishanth Vasudevan


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HDFC Bank looks able to maintain interest margin

Jindal Saw: Maximising capacity usage to drive future nos

TCS: Fresh hiring indicates hopes of recovery soon

Inflation: Key issue in credit policy review


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Geodesic Ltd


McNally Bharat Engineering


Allahabad Bank


IPO Analysis - Jubilant Foodworks


Axis Bank


ONGC Ltd


HDFC Bank


Weekly Watch - Jan 16 2010


Oudh sugar, Engineers India Limited


Gitanjali Gems


Usha Martin


Jubilant Foodworks - Subscribe


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Nifty bear put spread
A better-than-expected start to the Q3 earnings season and strong IIP readings failed to enthuse traders as the markets closed the week on almost a ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Shree Renuka may move in narrow range
Suzlon (Rs 89.7): After reaching its recent high at around Rs 95, the stock has seen some weakness. Now, only a close above Rs 95 could lift the stock to Rs 110-115 levels. But if current dull trend sustains, Suzlon might head back towards ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner: Hindalco to move towards a new high
Please let me know the outlook for ABB bought at Rs 1,200 and IVRCL at Rs 484 from a medium and long-term ...


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals- Reliance Industries (Rs 1,109.2)
Reliance Industries witnessed wild intra-day swings last week though the ending was on an insipid note with a meagre Rs 4 gain. The near-term view for the stock stays positive but the resistance at Rs 1130 needs to be cleared before the ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Roadblocks ahead
IT bellwethers, Infosys and TCS began the third quarter earnings season with a flourish, making the BSE IT index rally 9 per cent higher last week. But this optimism failed to percolate to rest of the market resulting in Sensex meandering in ...


Upside breakout seen next week




Src: ET, DP Blog , Businessline and etc

16 January 2010

Stock Analysis from Other Blogs/Webs

Satyam: Line of Confidence


One Breakout and One Breakdown Play


Random Observations


MTNL - Only Listed Telecom Company Having 3G License


IDBI Bank moves ahead on bank buy and update



Tea without Sugar


Airlines Views!!!


TATA Coffee!!!



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I have Found TWO Useful Web/BLogs Which serves Good For the Stock Market Investors.. Please make use of that Website Articles and get benefit.


http://www.stateofthemarket.net




http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/





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Src: Leading Weblogs.

Results Corner

Balaji Telefilms net profit rises 219.30% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales decline 22.94% to Rs 38.97 crore

Development Credit Bank reports net loss of Rs 18.09 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Operating income declines 34.94% to Rs 109.05 crore

Indage Vintners reports net loss of Rs 16.48 crore in the June 2009 quarter
Sales decline 79.89% to Rs 4.49 crore

Tata Consultancy Services net profit rises 28.25% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales rise 0.13% to Rs 5883.39 crore

Indage Vintners reports net loss of Rs 17.99 crore in the September 2009 quarter
Sales decline 92.46% to Rs 3.14 crore

Senbo Industries reports net loss of Rs 0.64 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Indrayani Biotech reports net loss of Rs 0.11 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Camlin reports net loss of Rs 1.39 crore in the December 2009 quarter

ETC Networks net profit declines 51.49% in the December 2009 quarter

Escorts reports net profit of Rs 23.40 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Reliable Ventures India net profit rises 35.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Finolex Cables reports net profit of Rs 12.27 crore in the December 2009 quarter

State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur net profit declines 32.38% in the December 2009 quarter

Shree Renuka Sugars net profit rises 1827.72% in the December 2009 quarter

NIIT Technologies net profit rises 142.43% in the December 2009 quarter

Hyderabad Industries net profit rises 120.45% in the December 2009 quarter

Automotive Axles net profit rises 9100.00% in the December 2009 quarter

HDFC Bank net profit rises 31.65% in the December 2009 quarter

IDBI Bank net profit rises 28.98% in the December 2009 quarter

Axis Bank net profit rises 30.97% in the December 2009 quarter

IndusInd Bank net profit rises 95.38% in the December 2009 quarter

Chhattisgarh Industries reports net loss of Rs 0.01 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Nalin Lease Finance reports net loss of Rs 0.23 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Sanwaria Agro Oils net profit rises 171.64% in the December 2009 quarter

IO System reports net profit of Rs 0.62 crore in the December 2009 quarter

UCO Bank net profit rises 43.23% in the December 2009 quarter




Src: Capitmarket.com

15 January 2010

Heard on the street

Heard on the street

Speculation over Welspun Gujarat-MSK Projects

buy


TALK of Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren looking to buy MSK Projects refuses to die despite the latter denying it. Grapevine has it that discussion between Welspun and MSK for the deal is in the final stage and will be announced soon. It is also speculated that MSK promoters are likely to offload their stake at Rs 140 a piece, followed by an open offer to buy another 20% from minority shareholders.

On Thursday, MSK shares fell 3% to Rs 120.65. Welspun shares fell 1% to Rs 279.50. Promoters hold 21.68% in MSK, while Subhkam Venture holds 23.66%, as on September 30. MSK officials were not available to comment on the matter.

Mid-cap cement stocks back in demand

INVESTORS took a fancy to midcap cement stocks on Thursday on talk that cement prices were likely to firm up soon. Stocks like Binani Cement, Andhra Cement, Saurashtra Cement, Dalmia Cement, Shree Cement and Prism Cement were among the prominent gainers, rising between 3-6 %.

Analysts tracking the sector say fund houses have been steadily buying cement shares in anticipation of further growth in the construction sector. According to them, many cement companies are set to increase prices further, sensing good demand in the residential property segment. Indian cement industry is witnessing a growth rate of about 8%, the fastest growing market next to China.

Satyam Computer basks in IT glory

SHARES of Satyam Computer are seeing a renewed burst of activity. Probably, strong quarterly numbers from Infosys Technologies could have raised expectations from other leading IT services companies as well. On Thursday, a US-based investor is said to have bought close to 30 lakh shares. Some of the bull operators too are said to be steadily building up long positions at the counter.

Dealers tracking the counter say the rise in the stock price from hereon may be a bit gradual, since many players who are tired of holding on to the stock may decide to cash in. The stock had touched a high of Rs 128 in September last year, but has been moving in a narrow band ever since. On Thursday, the stock closed at Rs 120.85, up 1.2% from the previous close. On the BSE, 1.23 crore shares changed hands, with roughly a fourth of it resulting in delivery.


Contributed by Nishanth Vasudevan & Apurv Gupta

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Top 5 picks

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Src: ET

14 January 2010

Heard on the street

Heard on the street

14 Jan 2010, 0356 hrs IST, ET Bureau

Save Print EMail Share Comment Text:


Scooters India seen riding the divestment

wave


A group of punters appear to have taken control of the Scooters India stock. Shares of the loss-making public sector undertaking (PSU) hit a 52-week high of Rs 45.45, amid a sudden surge in volumes, and ended the day at Rs 44, up 14% over the previous close. Around 13.6 lakh shares changed hands on Wednesday, compared to an average daily volume of around 8,000 shares on most trading sessions in the past three months.

The stock has risen nearly 60% this month alone. Cornering the stock does not need too much capital, considering that the non-promoter holding in the company is barely 20 lakh shares. With divestment being the flavour of the season, PSU shares are suddenly in demand.

It is not too difficult for an operator to whip up volumes in an illiquid stock and then unload the shares to the unsuspecting public by spreading the divestment story. There were more than a dozen bulk deals in the stock on Wednesday, with all of them being squared off before close of trading.

The sudden interest in the stock by arbitrageurs does raise eyebrows, considering the illiquid nature of the stock. Of the 13 players who took up positions at the counter, 8 squared off their positions for a small loss, two barely managed to break even, and four made a small profit. Scooters India made a net loss of Rs 2.27 crore for FY09, and a net loss of Rs 1.2 crore for the half year ended September 2009.

Alarm bells ringing for second-rung stocks

IS THE rally in second-line stocks close to peaking out? Yes, say some dealers, pointing out to the fact that money-making is becoming a bit too easy.

“We get at least half-a-dozen tips daily with likely price targets over the next few days,” says a dealer at an institutional brokerage. “But, of late, the target prices are being attained before the specified period. That is too fast for comfort,” he says.

NTPC follow-on offer may open on Feb 3

THE FOLLOW-ON public offering of NTPC is likely to start from February 3-5, according to people involved with the process. The company along with government officials and bankers has started meeting domestic institutional investors including insurance companies and mutual funds to gauge investor appetite for the Rs-11,000 crore share sale.

The company filed its offer document with Sebi on Tuesday and is likely to be flexible in the new auction process by not placing any cap either in terms of the number of shares or percentage to issued capital. Investment bankers say that the success of the NTPC issue will play a crucial role in the government’s future disinvestment plan.

Contributed by Santosh Nair & Reena Zachariah





Src:ET

13 January 2010

Is China the next Enron?

Is China the next Enron?



TAIWAN: Reading The Herald Tribune over breakfast in Hong Kong harbor last week, my eye went to the front-page story about how James Chanos —

reportedly one of America's most successful short-sellers, the man who bet that Enron was a fraud and made a fortune when that proved true and its stock collapsed — is now warning that China is "Dubai times 1,000 or worse" and looking for ways to short that country's economy before its bubbles burst.


China's markets may be full of bubbles ripe for a short-seller, and if Chanos can find a way to make money shorting them, God bless him. But after visiting Hong Kong and Taiwan this past week and talking to many people who work and invest their own money in China, I'd offer Chanos two notes of caution.

First, a simple rule of investing that has always served me well: Never short a country with $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves.

Second, it is easy to look at China today and see its enormous problems and things that it is not getting right. For instance, low interest rates, easy credit, an undervalued currency and hot money flowing in from abroad have led to what the Chinese government Sunday called "excessively rising house prices" in major cities, or what some might call a speculative bubble ripe for the shorting.

In the last few days, though, China's central bank has started edging up interest rates and raising the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves - precisely to head off inflation and take some air out of any asset bubbles.

And that's the point. I am reluctant to sell China short, not because I think it has no problems or corruption or bubbles, but because I think it has all those problems in spades - and some will blow up along the way (the most dangerous being pollution). But it also has a political class focused on addressing its real problems, as well as a mountain of savings with which to do so (unlike us).

And here is the other thing to keep in mind. Think about all the hype, all the words, that have been written about China's economic development since 1979. It's a lot, right? What if I told you this: "It may be that we haven't seen anything yet."

Why do I say that? All the long-term investments that China has made over the last two decades are just blossoming and could really propel the Chinese economy into the 21st-century knowledge age, starting with its massive investment in infrastructure. Ten years ago, China had a lot bridges and roads to nowhere.

Well, many of them are now connected. It is also on a crash program of building subways in major cities and high-speed trains to interconnect them. China also now has 400 million Internet users, and 200 million of them have broadband. Check into a motel in any major city and you'll have broadband access. America has about 80 million broadband users.

Now take all this infrastructure and mix it together with 27 million students in technical colleges and universities - the most in the world. With just the normal distribution of brains, that's going to bring a lot of brainpower to the market, or, as Bill Gates once said to me: "In China, when you're one-in-a-million, there are 1,300 other people just like you."

Equally important, more and more Chinese students educated abroad are returning home to work and start new businesses. I had lunch with a group of professors at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, or HKUST, who told me that this year they will be offering some 50 full scholarships for graduate students in science and technology. Major US universities are sharply cutting back.

Tony Chan, a Hong Kong-born mathematician, recently returned from America after 20 years to become the new president of HKUST. What was his last job in America? Assistant director of the U.S. National Science Foundation in charge of the mathematical and physical sciences. He's one of many coming home.

One of the biggest problems for China's manufacturing and financial sectors has been finding capable middle managers. The reverse-brain drain is eliminating that problem as well.

Finally, as Liu Chao-shiuan, Taiwan's former prime minister, pointed out to me: When Taiwan moved up the value chain from low-end, labor-intensive manufacturing to higher, value-added work, its factories moved to China or Vietnam. It lost them. In China, low-end manufacturing moves from coastal China to the less developed Western part of the country and becomes an engine for development there. In Taiwan, factories go up and out. In China, they go East to West.

"China knows it has problems," said Liu. "But this is the first time it has a chance to actually solve them." Taiwanese entrepreneurs now have more than 70,000 factories in China. They know the place. So I asked several Taiwanese businessmen whether they would "short" China. They vigorously shook their heads no as if I'd asked if they'd go one on one with LeBron James.

But, hey, some people said the same about Enron. Still, I'd rather bet against the euro. Shorting China today? Well, good luck with that, Mr Chanos. Let us know how it works out for you.


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Markets Review: Sensex closes above 17500; IT, metals lead

China CRR hike sends rate sensitives in a tizzy

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Src: Economictimes.com

Results Corner

Infomedia 18 reports net loss of Rs 12.88 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Sales decline 37.63% to Rs 23.04 crore

Shukra Bullions net profit declines 40.00% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales decline 70.44% to Rs 0.81 crore

Gallantt Metal net profit rises 2071.74% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales rise 71.88% to Rs 118.82 crore

Modern India reports net profit of Rs 1.51 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Sales decline 51.65% to Rs 27.63 crore

Texmaco net profit rises 44.07% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales rise 43.46% to Rs 238.69 crore

Supreme Industries reports net profit of Rs 35.92 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Shree Rani Sati Investment And Finance reports net loss of Rs 0.03 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Bajaj Holdings & Investment net profit rises 1332.67% in the December 2009 quarter

Zenotech Laboratories reports net loss of Rs 3.06 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Zenotech Laboratories reports net loss of Rs 2.22 crore in the September 2009 quarter

Jai Mata Glass net profit rises 105.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Tulive Developers net profit rises 25.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Aro Granite Industries net profit rises 17.65% in the December 2009 quarter

Jay Bharat Maruti net profit rises 400.93% in the December 2009 quarter

VST Industries net profit declines 20.33% in the December 2009 quarter

Rural Electrification Corporation net profit rises 48.77% in the December 2009 quarter

Sintex Industries net profit declines 11.34% in the December 2009 quarter

Nakoda Textile Industries net profit rises 97.98% in the December 2009 quarter

Samkrg Pistons & Rings net profit rises 209.43% in the December 2009 quarter

Sybly Industries reports net loss of Rs 0.85 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Jaiprakash Power Ventures net profit declines 61.68% in the December 2009 quarter




Src: CapitalMarket.com