31 January 2010

Market seen choppy to negative next week

Market seen choppy to negative next week

MUMBAI: The Indian stock market is seen choppy with a negative bias next week. With the end of the third quarter results season and Reserve Bank
of India’s monetary policy review behind, traders will eye cues from overseas markets.

Last two days of the current week, already cut short by a holiday Tuesday for Republic Day celebrations, saw the bulls try to get a grip on a losing market. Whether they will be able to hold their own against the bear onslaught is the question.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s 30-share Sensex ended the week ended Jan 29 at 16,357.96, losing 501.72 points or 2.98 per cent from the earlier week’s close of 16,859.68.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty closed the week at 4882.05, down 153.95 points or 3.05 per cent from Jan 22 close of 5036.00.


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The recent correction in stock prices was anticipated following the sharp run-up in stock prices on the back of expectations of good performance from India Inc. Overall, the third quarter results have surpassed or been in line with street estimates but with inflation becoming a worry, traders advise caution.

“We are very cautious at this juncture and suggest all short term players to lighten the position to avoid a sudden and sharp fall in the market. On the upside till Nifty does not move above 5000 levels we are not comfortable in suggesting in any long position to traders,” said an Anand Rathi report.

On Friday, in its Q3 monetary policy, the RBI raised the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by a higher-than-expected 75 basis points to 5.75 per cent against estimates of 50 bps hike. The central bank left its policy rates, repo and reverse repo--unchanged at 4.75 per cent and 3.25 per cent respectively. The CRR hike will be effected in two stages: by 50 bps for the Feb 13 fortnight and by 25 bps from Feb 27, sucking out Rs 36,000 crore of surplus liquidity from the banking system.

However, the sharp rise in food inflation led the RBI to revise upward its wholesale price index (WPI) inflation projection to 8.5 per cent end-March 2010 from 6.5 per cent. The apex bank also revised upward its GDP projection to 7.5 per cent for FY10 from 6.0 per cent, on the back of a strong rebound in industry and better prospects of Kharif crop.

“Increasingly confident of the economy's return to growth path (sustained domestic demand; early signs of revival in private sector demand for consumption and investment; growth in exports; signs of improvement in external demand factors), the RBI is moving further in reversing the crisis-driven expansionary stance. Capacities across many sectors could be stretched by this time next year. Hence, further upward pressure on product prices. There is upside risks to inflation from higher-than-expected commodity prices (including oil prices that have been range-bound). The RBI has also called for a gradual but simultaneous exit from the fiscal accommodative stance that was necessarily adopted during the crisis. This would be almost mandatory if the system interest rates need to be kept under check,” said Murali Krishnan, Head of Research, Ambit Capital, on the RBI’s policy moves.

Ambit expects WPI inflation to rise to double-digits in March, moving above the RBI’s projections once again. Thus, it expects 150 bps of repo and reverse repo rate hikes and a further 75 bps of CRR hikes between now and March 2011.

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Analyst's Pick: LARGE CAP: Macquarie Securities
31 Jan 2010, 0233 hrs IST

Aggressive plans for a FY11E employee addition and significant uptick in lateral hiring signals a robust revenue growth outlook for the sector.

Analyst's Pick: LARGE CAP: Macquarie Securities
31 Jan 2010, 0232 hrs IST

Strong Q4 revenue guidance, implying 4% QoQ growth, points to a strong rebound in FY11E top-line.

Analyst's Pick: MID CAP: Anand Rathi Financial Services
31 Jan 2010, 0230 hrs IST

Polaris Software reported a good set of Q3 figures, with revenue rising 3.9% QoQ. It has won 30 new deals, the highest in a single quarter over the last two years.

Analyst's Pick: MID CAP: Anand Rathi Financial Services
31 Jan 2010, 0229 hrs IST

Infotech Enterprises reported good Q3results, with revenue growing 4.7% QoQ.

Analyst's Pick: SMALL CAP: ICICI Securities
31 Jan 2010, 0228 hrs IST

The deal with Nokia will enable Tanla to increase revenues from this stream and successfully reduce dependence on premium SMS services.

Analyst's Pick: SMALL CAP: ICICI Securities
31 Jan 2010, 0226 hrs IST

Major demand in the solutions business is seen from logistics sectors like transportation and material handling and manufacturing segments like automobiles, pharma and healthcare.

Heard on the Street
30 Jan 2010, 0343 hrs IST

Some fund managers could not take US president Obama’s remarks on the IT sector in their stride.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Uptrend under threat
Bulls remained on the back foot right from the outset last week as fear of increase in policy rates and weakness in the global equity markets kept stock prices in check. Unwinding of long positions prior to expiry of January derivative ...

CEMENT: Cement: Prospects not so grey
Volume despatches reported by the cement industry for the nine months of this fiscal were higher by 13 per cent against last year, a level of growth not seen in recent times. Yet, the December quarter numbers of industry bigwigs such as ...

STOCKS: Educomp Solutions — Buy

PUBLIC OFFER: NTPC — FPO: Invest
NTPC is one of the better bets among power stocks. Though it has grown at a sedate pace over the last five years, NTPC is likely to deliver better earnings growth over the ...

STOCKS: V-Guard Industries: Buy
Investors with a medium-to-long term horizon can buy the stock of V-Guard Industries (V-Guard) due to the high potential of the consumer durables business and the discounted valuation of the stock. At Rs 84, the stock trades at 12 times ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Consider shorting Tata Motors, Dish TV
Tata Motors (Rs 690): After reaching its 52-week high at Rs 845, the stock has been in a downtrend. It now finds resistance at Rs 730 and only a close above Rs 740 would arrest the weak trend. In that event, the stock has the potential to ...

MUTUAL FUNDS: ICICI Prudential Power Fund: Hold
Investors may retain units of ICICI Pru Power Fund (ICICI Power) considering its long-term track record in delivering ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner: Tata Communications at long-term support
Can you give your views on Praj Industries bought at Rs 110? ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 1,046.5)
Reliance Industries declined to the low of Rs 1,018 last week. But the 200-day simple moving average present at Rs 1,020 cushioned the fall and the stock has been hovering just above this level over the last three sessions. A rebound early ...

BOOKS: Winning techniques of star venture capitalists
Do it, run it, teach it, or own it – that's what venture capitalists believe in, says Yinglan Tan in The Way of the VC: Having top venture capitalists on your board ( www.wiley.com). The relationship between the venture capitalist and ...

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Emmbi Polyarns IPO Analysis


Jain Irrigation Systems


Hyderabad Industries


Markets to remain volatile, say analysts



Src: ET, Businessline and DP Blog etc

30 January 2010

Long-term investors can enter at 4000-4300 Nifty: CLSA

Long-term investors can enter at 4000-4300 Nifty: CLSA



Laurence Balanco, Asian Technical Research, CLSA, says 4,650-4,700 are key support levels for the Nifty. At 10.53 am, the index was trading down 58.05 points, or 1.19%, at 4,809.20. He feels a breach of 4,700 will lead to further losses and sees 4,000 as the next support in case the level is breached.

According to him, long-term investors can enter at 4,000-4,300 levels.

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Laurence Balanco on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.



Q: Where do you see significant support for the Nifty?

A: The old break out area, which is down at the 4,700- 4650 area, is the key support area in the short-term. What you see over the past three months is the Nifty was making new highs, the Sensex making new highs, but you had this momentum divergence, where momentum indicators weren’t confirming those new highs and that created the vulnerability. And a sell off in global markets over the past week has seen the short-term levels give way and now it’s really set up for test of 4,700 area, which includes a 200-day moving average (DMA), a break below that level does open a way for further losses then.

Q: One level, that is being talked about over here, for the Nifty is 4,500, is that the level you would watch if the index slides significantly lower from here?

A: If we break through the 4,700 level that really does open the way and the next significant support level is actually down towards 4,000 that is what we are really watching. There are some short-term levels in-between that, but if you are looking at the big macro numbers, 4,700 is the next and below that we are really talking about 4,000, around that mark is the next macro level of significance to watch.

Q: What are the Asian markets suggesting because many of them seem to have come back to 200 DMA and sort of paused there, do you see a major decisive breach of those levels for many of the key Asian markets?

A: It is quite interesting; in such a short space of time markets have given a lot of the gains that we saw early in the year. Literally in three days, the S&P 500 retraced what it had gained over a three month period. And if you look at the Asian markets, the China and the Hong Kong markets are back at their 200 DMA where they are finding some short-term support.

So looking at the Asian markets, looking at Taiwan and for instance we are short-term support levels, and potentially we see some kind of oversold rally. But with some key levels giving way, we probably still have more downside in the coming months.

27 January 2010

Sensex falls 500 points; MnM, SBI down

Sensex falls 500 points; M&M, SBI down


MUMBAI: Equities were witnessing selling pressure following a sharp correction in Asian indices previous day. Negative opening of the European markets also weighed sentiments. Rate sensitives led the downfall as traders booked profits ahead of Reserve Bank of India’s policy meet.

At 3:20 pm, Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex was at 16242.46, down 515 points or 3 per cent. The index touched an intraday high of 16708.60.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was at 4881.05, down 126.85 points or 2.53 per cent. The broader index touched a low of 4856.55 and high of 5008.50 in trade so far.

BSE Midcap Index was down 2 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index slipped 2.52 per cent.

Amongst the sectoral indices, rate sensitives led the decline ahead of Reserve Bank of India’s policy meet. BSE Realty Index was down 5.41 per cent, BSE Metal Index fell 4.49 per cent and BSE Auto Index slipped 3.86 per cent.

Tata Steel (-6.02%), Hindalco (-5.47%), Tata Motors (-5.21%), Mahindra & Mahindra (-5.16%) and SBI (-4.70%) were the top Nifty losers.

ITC (1.10%) and Tata Power (0.55%) were the only index gainers.

Market breadth was negative on the Nifty with 45 declines and 5 advances.

Europe also opened on a lower note as profit booking emerged in financial stocks. FTSE 100 was down 1.17 per cent, CAC 40 declined 1.65 per cent and DAX fell 0.98 per cent.

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Sensex sheds 490 pts, mkts see highest-ever turnover

Src: ET and etc

25 January 2010

Results: SBI, LIC hsg, Hero Honda etc

SBI Q3 cons net profit down 8.4% at Rs 3,304.59 cr

India's largest bank, State Bank of India (SBI) has announced its third quarter results of FY10. The bank has reported 8.4% decline in its consolidated net profit of Rs 3,304.59 crore as against Rs 3,607.61 crore in the same quarter of previous year.

Consolidated net interest income increased 9.08% to Rs 8,781.7 crore from Rs 8,050.8 on year-on-year basis (YoY).

Its standalone net profit was flat at Rs 2,479.05 crore as against Rs 2,478.42 crore and net interest income went up 9.69% to Rs 6,316.3 crore from Rs 5,758.25 crore. CNBC-TV18 poll saw the net interest income at Rs 6,075.33 crore and net profit at Rs 2,556.15 crore.


Other income of the SBI increased to Rs 3,365.71 crore from Rs 3225.6 crore and provisions went up to Rs 856.61 crore versus Rs 196.83 crore.

Net non performing assets (NPAs) were up 64.2% to Rs 11,270 crore and provision cover was at 40.24% versus 42.86% in Q2.

SBI said, in a press conference, treasury income was down by Rs 234 crore since last year. Loan growth came in at 19% (YoY) and net interest margin was at 2.83%.

Net NPAs stood at 1.88% and provision coverage ratio at 56%. The bank has provided Rs 440 crore as additional provision. Deposit growth was at 11% (YoY).


Hero Honda Q3 net profit up 78.4% at Rs 535.8 cr


India's largest two-wheeler maker, Hero Honda has announced its third quarter results of FY10. It has reported net profit of Rs 535.8 crore, an increase of 78.4% over Rs 300.4 crore in the same quarter of previous year.

Net sales jumped 32.72% to Rs 3,814.4 crore from Rs 2,874 crore (YoY). EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) margin stood at 17.27%.

The numbers were better-than-expectations, as CNBC-TV18 poll saw the net profit at Rs 509 crore and net sales at Rs 3,783 crore.


In a press conference, Hero Honda said its bike market share in India was over 59%. On the outlook, it said the market demand would remain bullish but rising input costs remained a concern, as commodity prices are on 'Upward Trajectory'.

The company will look at hiking capacity at existing units and may look at setting up new plant in near future.

The share closed at Rs 1,618.00, down Rs 24.25, or 1.48%. Its market cap stood at Rs 32,309.44 crore at current market price.


HCL Tech Dec qtr net dips 36% to Rs 255 cr

Other Results:

Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals net profit declines 40.49% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales decline 3.05% to Rs 309.38 crore

First Leasing Company of India net profit rises 9.48% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales decline 9.11% to Rs 39.90 crore

Cummins India net profit rises 11.11% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales rise 8.71% to Rs 814.83 crore

Jyoti Structures net profit rises 29.35% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales rise 18.24% to Rs 508.72 crore

Bharat Bijlee net profit declines 44.49% in the December 2009 quarter
Sales rise 15.18% to Rs 161.32 crore

GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare net profit rises 3.38% in the December 2009 quarter

United Credit reports net profit of Rs 0.69 crore in the December 2009 quarter
HCL Infosystems net profit declines 0.86% in the December 2009 quarter
Hero Honda Motors net profit rises 78.34% in the December 2009 quarter

Melstar Information Technologies reports net loss of Rs 0.76 crore in the December 2009 quarter
State Bank of India net profit rises 0.03% in the December 2009 quarter
Sagar Tourist Resorts reports net loss of Rs 0.09 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Cadila Healthcare net profit rises 73.48% in the December 2009 quarter
Godrej Industries reports net profit of Rs 16.91 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Celestial Biolabs net profit rises 1481.82% in the December 2009 quarter

Sterlite Industries India net profit declines 77.16% in the December 2009 quarter
Narmada Gelatines net profit rises 26.56% in the December 2009 quarter
Chokhani Global Express reports net profit of Rs 0.01 crore in the December 2009 quarter

D B Corp net profit rises 112.47% in the December 2009 quarter
Himatsingka Seide reports net profit of Rs 3.35 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Triton Valves net profit rises 120.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Nagarjuna Agri Tech reports net loss of Rs 0.15 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Super Sales India reports net profit of Rs 5.41 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Borosil Glass Works reports net profit of Rs 1.80 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Modison Metals net profit rises 467.86% in the December 2009 quarter
East Buildtech net profit declines 64.10% in the December 2009 quarter
Chokhani International reports net loss of Rs 0.12 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Shri Keshav Cements & Infra net profit rises 240.00% in the December 2009 quarter
Tamilnadu Jai Bharath Mills reports net loss of Rs 0.24 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Ashiana Agro Industries net profit rises 100.00% in the December 2009 quarter

SIL Investments reports net profit of Rs 0.46 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Electrotherm India net profit rises 35.64% in the December 2009 quarter
Shakti Pumps India net profit rises 25.96% in the December 2009 quarter

T.V. Today Network net profit rises 57.90% in the December 2009 quarter
Jarigold Textiles net profit rises 1900.00% in the December 2009 quarter
Redington India net profit rises 28.67% in the December 2009 quarter

Super Spinning Mills reports net profit of Rs 0.16 crore in the December 2009 quarter
XPRO India reports net profit of Rs 1.81 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Jet Airways India reports net profit of Rs 105.80 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Aarti Drugs net profit rises 772.73% in the December 2009 quarter
Gujarat Borosil reports net loss of Rs 0.50 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Pioneer Investcorp net profit rises 2853.85% in the December 2009 quarter

Wheel & Axle Textiles net profit rises 4600.00% in the December 2009 quarter
Rosekamal Textiles reports net profit of Rs 0.51 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Bijlee Textiles net profit rises 450.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Trigyn Technologies net profit rises 18.86% in the December 2009 quarter
Lloyds Steel Industries reports net profit of Rs 39.17 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Deepak Fertilizers & Petrochemicals Corp net profit rises 136.19% in the December 2009 quarter

Creative Eye reports net loss of Rs 0.58 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Tata Coffee net profit rises 14.31% in the December 2009 quarter
Hercules Hoists net profit rises 22.45% in the December 2009 quarter

Mahindra & Mahindra net profit rises 848.85% in the December 2009 quarter
Shilchar Electronics reports net profit of Rs 0.31 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Repro India net profit rises 81.60% in the December 2009 quarter

C & C Constructions net profit rises 132.43% in the December 2009 quarter
Voltas net profit rises 62.20% in the December 2009 quarter
Pushpsons Industries net profit rises 400.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Hindustan Hardy Spicer reports net loss of Rs 0.17 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Peacock Industries reports net loss of Rs 0.25 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Kanoria Chemicals & Industries reports net profit of Rs 6.09 crore in the December 2009 quarter

LIC Housing Finance net profit rises 14.33% in the December 2009 quarter
Sundaram Clayton reports net profit of Rs 5.19 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Austin Engineering Company net profit declines 9.34% in the December 2009 quarter

Kale Consultants net profit rises 234.46% in the December 2009 quarter
Polylink Polymers India reports net loss of Rs 0.17 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Acrysil net profit declines 16.89% in the December 2009 quarter

Blue Star net profit rises 31.50% in the December 2009 quarter
National Oxygen reports no net profit or loss in the December 2009 quarter
India Cements net profit declines 43.79% in the December 2009 quarter

Grindwell Norton net profit rises 41.90% in the December 2009 quarter
Andhra Bank net profit rises 29.48% in the December 2009 quarter
Vidarbha Iron & Steel Corporation net profit rises 200.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Shanthi Gears net profit declines 71.87% in the December 2009 quarter
J Kumar Infraprojects net profit rises 133.24% in the December 2009 quarter
Zydus Wellness net profit rises 6.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Victoria Mills reports net profit of Rs 1.18 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Lakshmi Machine Works net profit rises 129.32% in the December 2009 quarter
Kakatiya Cements Sugar & Industries reports net loss of Rs 2.21 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Shilpa Medicare net profit rises 516.20% in the December 2009 quarter
Megh Mayur Infra reports net loss of Rs 0.01 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Abhishek Corporation reports net loss of Rs 9.75 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Sundaram Brake Linings net profit rises 1405.56% in the December 2009 quarter
H. S. India reports net profit of Rs 0.80 crore in the December 2009 quarter
CNI Research reports net profit of Rs 0.77 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Treadsdirect net profit rises 415.84% in the December 2009 quarter
Gujarat Reclaim & Rubber Products net profit declines 16.77% in the December 2009 quarter
Money Matters Financial Services net profit rises 2.21% in the December 2009 quarter

Joy Reality net profit rises 650.00% in the December 2009 quarter
Cochin Minerals & Rutile net profit declines 64.29% in the December 2009 quarter
Poly Medicure net profit rises 587.69% in the December 2009 quarter

Globus Corporation reports net profit of Rs 0.01 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Arrow Textiles reports net loss of Rs 0.43 crore in the December 2009 quarter
High Energy Batteries India reports net loss of Rs 0.28 crore in the December 2009 quarter

Force Motors net profit declines 96.50% in the December 2009 quarter
Empire Industries net profit rises 111.93% in the December 2009 quarter
Gujarat Intrux net profit declines 39.47% in the December 2009 quarter

Marmagoa Steel reports net loss of Rs 1.04 crore in the December 2009 quarter
SNL Bearings net profit rises 490.00% in the December 2009 quarter
Span Diagnostics net profit declines 57.69% in the December 2009 quarter

Entegra reports net loss of Rs 10.75 crore in the December 2009 quarter
JBM Auto net profit rises 1891.67% in the December 2009 quarter
Delta Corp net profit rises 1333.33% in the December 2009 quarter

Era E-Zone India reports net profit of Rs 0.43 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Era Infra Engineering net profit rises 85.36% in the December 2009 quarter
Natural Capsules net profit declines 5.49% in the December 2009 quarter

Yuken India reports net profit of Rs 2.00 crore in the December 2009 quarter
U G Hotels and Resorts reports net loss of Rs 0.28 crore in the December 2009 quarter
Sarla Performance Fibers net profit rises 63.39% in the December 2009 quarter

Wendt India net profit rises 84.62% in the December 2009 quarter
NMDC net profit declines 39.65% in the December 2009 quarter
Dynacons Systems & Solutions net profit rises 275.00% in the December 2009 quarter

Shiva Cement net profit rises 144.44% in the December 2009 quarter
Deep Industries net profit rises 91.22% in the December 2009 quarter
Gujarat NRE Coke net profit rises 101.21% in the December 2009 quarter

V-Guard Industries net profit rises 275.71% in the December 2009 quarter
HCL Technologies net profit declines 35.82% in the December 2009 quarter
Kewal Kiran Clothing net profit rises 109.21% in the December 2009 quarter

Prithvi Information Solutions net profit rises 96.10% in the December 2009 quarter



Src:ET, Moneycontrol, Capitalmarket

India to grow at 9.2% in FY-11: CMIE

India to grow at 9.2% in FY-11: CMIE



MUMBAI: India's economic growth is likely to return to pre-crisis levels in the next fiscal year, driven by strong industrial and agriculture
growth, a recent review by a think tank showed.


The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) expects the Asia's third largest economy's GDP growth to accelerate to 9.2 percent in 2010/11 from 6.9 percent in 2009/10.

"In fiscal 2010/11, real GDP growth will be propelled by a strong performance by the industrial sector and a robust recovery in agricultural and elite sector. Services sector too is expected to do well," CMIE said in the report.

"A revival in consumer confidence and investment activities will supplement growth in the commodities segment," it added. India's GDP growth slowed to 6.7 percent in 2008/09 from 9 percent or more in the previous three years as the effect of global financial turmoil hurt demand, prompting the authorities to unveil a spate of measures designed to boost the economy.

The measures helped as the country's industrial output grew at its fastest pace in two years in November at 11.7 percent, the economy expanded 7.9 percent in the September-quarter and inflation jumped to a one-year high of 7.3 percent in December CMIE expects the wholesale price index, the main price barometer, to steadily fall to 7.7 percent in the June quarter and further to 3.8 percent March quarter of 2011.


Also Read


The drop in inflation which is seen across primary articles, fuel and manufactured products, is likely to be because of the high base value in 2009/10 and a good kharif (summer) crop production in 2010, it said. Headline inflation is estimated at 8.6 percent in March quarter, CMIE said.

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NMDC board approves divesting 8.38% stake


Nifty: Resistance at 5123-5163-5200 Fair Wealth
Sensex likely to move lower in the coming weeks Nirav Vakharia
Thangamayil Jewellery IPO: Subscribe Hem Securities
Market expected to remain volatile ahead of F&O expiry Jainam Research



Src: ET, Valuenotes

Downside breakout could test 4,800

Downside breakout could test 4,800



Outlook: The short term trend is bearish and the Nifty is likely to test 4,950 again at the very least. If it falls below 4,950, it could hit 4,800. Expect high daily volatility and high volumes as well since this is settlement week. The daily range could be 150 points.

Rationale: The market made a decisive downside breakout when it closed below 5,150 on Thursday – the breakout was confirmed by volume expansion. That drop set up a likely target of 4,950, which was fulfilled intra-day on Friday. If support at 4,950 is broken, the next reliable support is 4,800. If the market falls below 4800, an intermediate trend reversal would be confirmed.

Counter-view: In terms of time, an intermediate uptrend has been in force since end-November. A trend reversal would be quite likely and in that case, the market could dip till it hits support in the range of 4,750-4,700. The other possibility is that short-covering close to settlement could trigger a sharp recovery that pulls the market back above 5,180. That would be a positive signal but it would need to be backed by breadth (positive advance-decline lines) and strong volume action to make it valid.

Bulls & bears: This is results season so action will always be somewhat stock-specific. Reliance and Airtel did well on good results while L&T saw selling after it posted poor results. In fact, most major sectors saw heavy selling. The CNXIT lost a lot of ground despite the weaker rupee – Tech Mahindra was the only remotely bullish stock by Friday’s close. TCS, Wipro and Infosys were all looking weak.

Financials were also down with the Bank Nifty losing somewhat less than the market but most bank stocks closed bearish. Pressure on bank stocks could intensify next week. Metals, real estate and engineering-construction counters were sold heavily. If a quick recovery occurs in these sectors, it will be due to a combination of short covering and carryover buying. FMCG companies such as ITC and HUL saw some defensive buying. Some PSUs like REC and Concor could also see speculative buying in the hope of an IPO or FPO. A couple of auto and auto ancillary stocks could also move against the overall trend.

MICRO TECHNICALS

Hindustan Unilever
Current Price: Rs 257.95
Target Price: Rs 270


The stock is resting on good support between Rs 250-257. It has the potential to climb till Rs 266-270 at least since it’s perceived as a good defensive holding during bearish phases. Keep a stop at Rs 252 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 266.

Reliance Industries
Current Price: Rs 1,053
Target Price: Rs 950


The stock is very delicately poised at support between Rs 1,030-1,050. If it closes below Rs 1,030, it could drop till around the Rs 950 level. Keep a stop at Rs 1,070 and go short. Increase the position between Rs 1,030. Book profits below Rs 970.

Unitech
Current Price: Rs 79.35
Target Price: Rs 72


The stock has been testing support between Rs 77-80. If it closes below Rs 77, it is likely to drop till around Rs 72. Keep a stop at Rs 82 and go short. Increase the position below Rs 77. Start booking profits at around Rs 73-74.

Shree Renuka
Current Price: Rs 220.95
Target Price: NA


The stock is consolidating close to a recent low. If the support between Rs 215-220 holds, it has the potential to recover till around the Rs 240 levels. Keep a stop at Rs 215 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 230 and clear the position at Rs 240.

Punj Lloyd
Current Price: Rs 186.10
Target Price: Rs 170


The stock has made a downside breakout on high volumes. It’s likely to fall till the Rs 179 level at least and it may slide till around Rs 170. Keep a stop at Rs 190 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 179 and revise the stop to Rs 180.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.


Sustainable recovery 25-JAN-10
The superlative December quarter results from the Big Three IT companies renewed hopes that the worst is over for the IT sector.
Many delivery hurdles to cross 25-JAN-10
While the scope for third-party logistics is robust, maintaining its margins will be a tough act for Aqua Logistics.
Regional focus 25-JAN-10
While Vascon Engineers’ EPC capabilities provide comfort, success in the real estate business will depend on the company’s ability to scale it up.
Expanding MF reach 25-JAN-10
The industry has been abuzz with news of mutual funds being available through stock exchanges for transacting.
Disappointing show 25-JAN-10
While L&T’s December quarter results and cut in its 2009-10 guidance are disappointing, most analysts believe it to be a blip.
'2010 may not favour top down investing' 25-JAN-10
In the second series of interviews, Phani Sekhar talks about the markets in 2010, the sectors to bet on and his portfolio.
Markets at a glance 25-JAN-10
A sell-off in global stocks and disappointing earnings numbers from a few big corporates pulled down the key indices during four out of five trading sessions in the week.
Analysts' corner 25-JAN-10
ONGC’s Q3 FY10 revenues were up 23.1 per cent y-o-y to Rs 15,310 crore on account of higher crude prices and realisations on value added products, and lower subsidy.
Down move on high volumes, volatility 25-JAN-10
A downside breakout with only three sessions left for the settlement has left the market in turmoil.
Downside breakout could test 4,800 25-JAN-10
The market crashed in the last two sessions with the Nifty bouncing from 4,955 level to close at 5,036 points for a week-on-week loss of 4.12 per cent.
Not shining through 25-JAN-10
Small size and limited presence reduce the appeal of Thangamayil Jewellery’s IPO.
Still in the trial phase 25-JAN-10
While Syncom Healthcare has big plans to expand, it is a high risk bet considering its short track record and inexperience in overseas markets.


24 January 2010

How Obama's reforms could affect banks

How Obama's reforms could affect banks



US President Barack Obama is looking at limiting risk-taking at banks.

But his proposals on Thursday were tantalizingly vague. He said he wanted to limit the amount of borrowing that banks can do relative to their peers and limit their trading activities to buying and selling securities to customers.

But it is not clear whether relative borrowing limits will be low enough to force banks to reduce their debt. And the line between buying and selling securities on behalf of customers, and doing so on behalf of the bank, can be blurry.



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The White House has also said it wishes to prevent banks from investing in and sponsoring hedge funds and private equity firms, but it is not clear if banks will also be prevented from financing these clients, which can itself be risky.

Wall Street firms are likely to fight any efforts at reform, and President Obama has lost some political capital after a bruising effort to pass health care reform, and losing a Senate seat in a special election in Massachusetts.

Any legislation will take months if not years to wind its way through Washington, and predicting how it will the law will end up working is difficult. But here are some possible outcomes of Obama's efforts:

Killing it softly

On a conference call with journalists, Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said he had not seen details of Obama's plan, but that he generally appreciates government policies that stabilize the financial system.

Experts said that banks were unlikely to publicly disagree with Obama, but are sure to furiously lobby behind the scenes to water down any proposal that the president and legislators put forward.

Banks took similar steps when rulemakers and lawmakers sought to move more derivatives trading onto exchanges and into clearinghouses. Although trade groups initially said they supported efforts at reform, proposals now look likely to be watered down. Obama's efforts to reduce risk taking could meet a similar fate.

Whether that is a good thing is debatable. Major banks including Lehman Brothers took large proprietary bets that resulted in big losses, and in Lehman's case, forced it into bankruptcy. But many bank executives are quick to argue that if they can't do this kind of trading, foreign banks and unregulated domestic entities will, which may not reduce systemic risk.

Gray hair triumphs

A number of elder statesmen of the financial world, most notably former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, believe that Obama is right, and that large banks should be severely constrained from making bets with their own funds.

Obama seems keen to personally shepherd these changes through Congress, and given the populist outcry against Wall Street, he may have the political capital to do so.

If he is successful, the biggest banks will likely shrink further. Obama's fee on bank's liabilities, announced last week, may collect less money than originally planned.

Talented risk-taking traders will move to hedge funds and private equity firms, where their failures could have less of an impact on the broader market.

Trading volume on major exchanges and in many financial markets may drop, because smaller players will have less capital available to consistently trade. Shares of exchanges dropped on Thursday — NYSE Euronext dropped 3.9%, while CME Group Inc fell 5.8%.

The biggest banks will likely become even less profitable, and more like staid, slow-growing utilities that pay high dividends to shareholders.

One question that remains is how far Obama will go in limiting banks from risk activities. Will a bank holding company be allowed to own a hedge fund, even if the regulated bank subsidiary cannot? Will commercial banks be barred from all investment banking activities? Will foreign banks that operate in the United States be constrained?

Also unclear is whether some institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, will be able to shed their bank charters to avoid restrictions on trading. Goldman Sachs CFO Viniar said on a conference call that the bank has no plans to get rid of its charter. Many investors believe it ought to, but regulators may balk at a move that would give them less oversight over a company whose health is critical to the financial system.

Rules change, but banks backslide

Even if Obama successfully implements his risk limitations, banks may find ways around them. Banks, for example, could buy securities and claim they were doing so in anticipation of client demand, when in fact they intended to make bets on the securities and hold onto them themselves. Or bank holding companies could engage in risky activity that leaves their subsidiary banks worse off.

But if regulators are sufficiently vigilant, and limit risk-taking across many businesses in the financial sector, the brainpower that Wall Street devotes to finding loopholes may migrate to other sectors of the economy. From Obama's standpoint, this may be the most positive scenario.



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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Stock Market Trading Tips - Investment For Mid-Term Time Frame

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