http://pivottrading.50webs.com/pivot/pivot/elliot.html
http://www.niftystockpivot.blogspot.com/
Use these Blogs/Webs for Your Technicals
22 February 2010
Two Sites
http://pivottrading.50webs.com/pivot/pivot/elliot.html
http://www.niftystockpivot.blogspot.com/
Use these Blogs/Webs for Your Technicals
Key support at 4675, resistance at 4930
Key support at 4,675, resistance at 4,930
The market topped out at Nifty 4,929 points before sliding into another downtrend. The week closed with marginal net changes. The Nifty was last seen at 4,844.9, for a week-on-week gain of 0.4 per cent. The Sensex was up 0.2 per cent at 16,191. The Defty rose 0.5 per cent due to some rupee strengthening.
The market topped out at Nifty 4,929 points before sliding into another downtrend. The week closed with marginal net changes. The Nifty was last seen at 4,844.9, for a week-on-week gain of 0.4 per cent. The Sensex was up 0.2 per cent at 16,191. The Defty rose 0.5 per cent due to some rupee strengthening.
Breadth and background indicators were poor. The BSE 500 was down 0.1 per cent and the Midcaps were down 0.4 per cent while the Nifty Junior was down 0.5 per cent. Advances were outnumbered more than 4:1 by declines. Volumes were low and many smaller stocks weren't traded at all. The FIIs were moderate buyers while domestic institutions were net sellers.
Outlook: The market is in another short-term downtrend and it is likely to test support between 4,650 and 4,750 again. In all probability the next 5-10 sessions will see range-trading between 4,650 and 4,950 with a fair amount of intra-day volatility. We will get a clearer picture of the direction of intermediate and long-term trends over the next week.
Rationale: The short-term signals are negative and the market is not yet oversold enough to trigger a technical bounce on Monday. The last bottom was 4,675 on February 8. That was just above the 200 Day Moving Average, which suggests the long-term bull market is still intact. If the next bottom is at, or above 4,675, the pattern of higher lows would suggest that the intermediate downtrend, (which is now in week 6), is changing. A close below the 200 DMA (between 4,670 and 4,720 depending on calculation mode) would, on the other hand, suggest the long-term trend has gone bearish.
Counter-view: There is bound to be some short-covering and speculative buying immediately pre-Budget in settlement week. If the market does climb past 4,929 on the upside, we will have a pattern of higher highs, which would again signal an improving intermediate trend. The market is unlikely to “make up its mind” before the Budget so, range-trading between roughly 4,650 and 4,950 seems the most likely pattern until settlement.
Bulls and Bears: Most sectors fell last week and stocks outside the F&O ambit suffered from lack of liquidity as well. Trader should stay out of all but the largest scrips in this situation. Metals and realty were especially badly affected by selling. Sugar also saw a lot of selling. Telecom was hard-hit by a combination of poor quarterly results and Bharti's Zain deal, which was considered cause for selling by many operators.
Banks and IT were outperformers, with the Bank Nifty and CNXIT indices both up by over 1 per cent. But both sectors looked weak by Friday. There was some defensive buying in pharma and some speculative buying in energy stocks.
As things stand, a lot of pivotal scrips are sitting close to critical supports. Given the poor breadth signals, the chances are, some will crash. In other cases, profit-booking and renewed buying could trigger a bounce but that is more likely to occur close to settlement.
MICRO TECHNICALS
Bharti Airtel
Current price: Rs 278.80
Target Price: Rs 255
The stock has broken key support at Rs 300 on heavy selling and could be heading for a multi-year low at around Rs 255. There is some support at Rs 275-280 and again at Rs 265. Keep a stop at Rs 285 and short. Cover 50 per cent of the position at Rs 265 and reset the stop loss to Rs 270. Clear the position at Rs 255.
SBI
Current price: Rs 1,905
Target Price: Rs 1,850
The stock has been sold down to a critical support. If SBI closes below Rs 1,900, it will fall to Rs 1,850 and maybe lower, to Rs 1,800. Keep a stop at Rs 1,920 and short. Increase the position below Rs 1,900. Book 75 per cent profit at Rs 1,850 and reset the stop to Rs 1,860 with a new target of Rs 1,800.
Bharat Forge
Current price: Rs 243.65
Target Price: Rs 265
The stock has been sold down to a strong support. It has the potential to bounce back till around the Rs 265 level. Keep a stop at Rs 240 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 255 and reset the stop loss till Rs 250. Clear the position at Rs 265.
HDIL
Current price: Rs 302
Target Price: Rs 320
The stock has found firm support at the current price and it could easily make a technical recovery till the Rs 320 mark. Keep a stop at Rs 295 and go long. Book partial profits at Rs 314 and reset the stop to Rs 310. Clear the position above Rs 320.
(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)
********************************************
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
*******************************************
Analysts' pick: Sunteck Realty, Colgate Palmolive, BoI, Indraprasta Gas
Src: Business-Standard, ET, DP Blog etc
Analysts' pick: Sunteck Realty, Colgate Palmolive, BoI, Indraprasta Gas
Infrastructure
BPCL
Budget Preview - Feb 22 2010
Mahindra and Mahindra
Tata Steel
Reliance Industries
Weekly Newsletter - Feb 22 2010
Src: Business-Standard, ET, DP Blog etc
21 February 2010
Wkly Tech Analysis: Free fall seen below 15900
Wkly Tech Analysis: Free fall seen below 15,900
The markets after showing signs of recovery pared gains towards the end of the week. It still settled with a marginal gain, as global factors came into play. The Indian market firmed up mid-week after a subdued start, while other major global markets were closed. However, after the resumption of trading abroad, weakness was seen especially on Friday, which saw our markets pare almost the entire gain.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Awaiting Budget day gyrations
The week ahead promises edge-of-the-seat excitement as the Union Budget jamboree unfolds. The Railway Budget will get things chugging on Wednesday followed by the much-prognosticated Union Budget on Friday. Thursday will be livened up by ...
STOCKS: Unitech: Buy
STOCKS: OnMobile Global Services: Hold
Investors with a two-year horizon can retain the shares of Onmobile Global Services, a mobile value-added services provider, given the strong revenue growth in lucrative overseas markets that are likely to kick in over the next 12-18 months. ...
Investors can retain Tata Life Sciences and Technology fund considering its long-term track record. The fund invests in the technology space as well as in the pharma sector — the latter considered as a defensive exposure. The fund, over ...
INSIGHT: Macro signals flash green, investors take cue
After jumping up joyfully at every scrap of economic data put out by the government throughout last year, the stock market has greeted macro-economic news with surprising apathy in recent months. Yet, there are several positive signals ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query corner: Bhushan Steel moving sideways
Please give me your opinion on Petronet LNG purchased at Rs 76. Should I purchase more at current level or exit? Anuj Jain, ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Consider shorting SAIL, India Bulls Real Estate
India Bulls Real Estate (Rs 154.85): The stock has been in downtrend for quite sometime now. The recent fall has further pushed it closer to its crucial support level. Though the stock has a critical resistance at Rs 182, only a close above ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: Hang Seng BeES — Chance to buy into China
Credited with being the first foreign ETF in the country, Hang Seng BeES is the latest offering from Benchmark Asset Management Company. An open-ended index scheme, the Hang Seng BeES aims to provide its investors with returns (before ...
********************************************
Src: BusinessLine, Business Standard, DP Blog etc
The markets after showing signs of recovery pared gains towards the end of the week. It still settled with a marginal gain, as global factors came into play. The Indian market firmed up mid-week after a subdued start, while other major global markets were closed. However, after the resumption of trading abroad, weakness was seen especially on Friday, which saw our markets pare almost the entire gain.
The Sensex after touching a low of 16,011, rallied to a high of 16,481. It slipped later and settled with a marginal gain of 39 points at 16,192. Other major global markets such as the US, Hong Kong, Japan and China were shut during the week for a day or two. In fact, China and Taiwan were shut throughout the week.
Among the index stocks — Hindalco surged over 8 per cent to Rs 150, and HDFC Bank rallied 6.5 per cent to Rs 1,700. Tata Steel, HDFC and Hindustan Unilever were the other major gainers. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel slumped 11.5 per cent to Rs 278. Reliance Infrastructure, DLF, Reliance Communications, Reliance and Sterlite were the other prominent losers this week.
Given the fact that we are headed to a week which will be dominated by the expiry of the February derivatives series and the Union Budget, predicting the direction of the market will be all the more difficult. One needs to be prepared for high volatility and keep an eye on key levels. The best strategy is to stay put till uncertainties vanish.
The Sensex is currently below its short-term moving average both on daily (20-day) and weekly (20-week) charts. The short-term moving average on the daily chart is at 16,240, while the short-term weekly moving average is at 16,784. The bias will remain down as long as the index trades below its short-term weekly moving average.
Although the Sensex has near support at 16,000, one needs to carefully watch 15,900 as a key level, for a break below 15,900 could trigger a free fall up to 15,300 at least.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 146 points, from a low of 4,784, the index moved up to a high of 4,930, and finally closed with a gain of 18 points at 4,845.
Next week, the Nifty is likely to face resistance around 4,900-4,918-4,935, while it may seek support around 4,813-4,772-4,755.
The daily short-term moving average of the index is at 4,854, and the short-term weekly moving average is at 5,001. The long-term (200-day) moving average on the daily chart is at 4,719, and the weekly long-term moving average at 4,200.
************************************************TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Awaiting Budget day gyrations
The week ahead promises edge-of-the-seat excitement as the Union Budget jamboree unfolds. The Railway Budget will get things chugging on Wednesday followed by the much-prognosticated Union Budget on Friday. Thursday will be livened up by ...
STOCKS: Unitech: Buy
STOCKS: OnMobile Global Services: Hold
Investors with a two-year horizon can retain the shares of Onmobile Global Services, a mobile value-added services provider, given the strong revenue growth in lucrative overseas markets that are likely to kick in over the next 12-18 months. ...
STOCKS: Madras Cements: Book Profits
Investors can consider booking profit in the stock of Madras Cements and entering it at lower levels later. The stock's fundamentals do not warrant significant upside from here over the next ...
IPOS: United Bank of India — IPO: Avoid
Investors can refrain from subscribing to the United Bank of India's public offer. Though the offer is modestly priced, the bank doesn't appear to be a preferred exposure in the banking space, where there are a large number of other ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling Stocks
Bharti Airtel gave investors the jitters last week as it turned tail following the announcement of its offer to buy the African operations of Kuwait telecommunications company, Zain. The stock lost 14 per cent in the first two sessions of ...
PUBLIC OFFER: REC — FPO: Invest
Investors can subscribe to the follow-on offer from Rural Electrification Corporation (REC), as the valuation at which the offer is made is reasonable in the light of the strong earnings visibility and growth expectations. REC, which ...
STOCKS: Gujarat State Petronet: Buy
Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL), engaged in natural gas transmission, presents a good buying proposition for investors with a medium-term perspective. At the current price of Rs 87, the stock discounts the trailing 12-month earnings by ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: HDFC Equity Fund: Invest
Investors with a long-term perspective can consider buying the units of HDFC Equity Fund. Over a decade old, the fund boasts of not just an impressive scorecard, but also of consistent out-performance over its benchmark CNX-500, one not easy ...
Investors can retain Tata Life Sciences and Technology fund considering its long-term track record. The fund invests in the technology space as well as in the pharma sector — the latter considered as a defensive exposure. The fund, over ...
INSIGHT: Macro signals flash green, investors take cue
After jumping up joyfully at every scrap of economic data put out by the government throughout last year, the stock market has greeted macro-economic news with surprising apathy in recent months. Yet, there are several positive signals ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query corner: Bhushan Steel moving sideways
Please give me your opinion on Petronet LNG purchased at Rs 76. Should I purchase more at current level or exit? Anuj Jain, ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Consider shorting SAIL, India Bulls Real Estate
India Bulls Real Estate (Rs 154.85): The stock has been in downtrend for quite sometime now. The recent fall has further pushed it closer to its crucial support level. Though the stock has a critical resistance at Rs 182, only a close above ...
MUTUAL FUNDS: Hang Seng BeES — Chance to buy into China
Credited with being the first foreign ETF in the country, Hang Seng BeES is the latest offering from Benchmark Asset Management Company. An open-ended index scheme, the Hang Seng BeES aims to provide its investors with returns (before ...
********************************************
DLF
Weekly Outlook - Feb 20 2010
Weekly Market Outlook - Feb 20 2010
Weekly Newsletter - Feb 20 2010
Weekly Watch - Feb 20 2010
Hindalco
Tata Motors
Bajaj Electricals
Bajaj Electricals
Weekly Wrap - Feb 20 2010
Dividend Yield Stocks
Budget Preview - Feb 20 2010
India Budget 2010-11 Preview
India Budget 2010-11 Preview
India Budget Preview - Feb 19 2010
Budget Preview - Feb 18 2010
Deepak Fertilizers
Man Infraconstruction IPO subscribed 6.87 times
Src: BusinessLine, Business Standard, DP Blog etc
19 February 2010
Pre Market: Stocks to open lower on weak global cues
Pre Market: Stocks to open lower on weak global cues
MUMBAI: Equities are likely to extend losses on Friday tracking overseas declines. However, stock-specific action is expected on the back of
Budget expectations. Fertilizer stocks may gain strength following the government’s decision to go ahead with the nutrient based subsidy plan.
“Nifty witnessed profit booking after seeing a 2.7% rally in the last two days. Reliance Industries which gave a positive signal in Wednesday’s session was down 3% on Thursday due to which we saw huge pressure on the Sensex. The intermediate rally which started from the lows of 4,675 is still intact unless Nifty breaks below 4,825 on the closing basis.
The daily RSI and MACD are still in a positive territory indicating that this positive uptrend will continue. Strong support is seen at 4,860-4,825 and stiff resistance at 4,920 - 4,950 levels. Nifty is currently in the tight trading band of 4950-4800 and unless we see a break of this range, markets will remain volatile with a positive bias,” said Nirmal Bang Securities.
US stocks rose for a third straight day on Thursday as investors viewed company results and manufacturing data as evidence the economic rebound will continue. Meanwhile, index futures tumbled after the Federal Reserve announced it was raising the discount rate that it charges banks for emergency loans.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83.66 points, or 0.81 percent, to 10,392.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 7.24 points, or 0.66 percent, to 1,106.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 15.42 points, or 0.69 percent, to 2,241.71.
As a result, Asian stocks declined sending the Nikkei down 0.12 per cent and Topix down 0.07 per cent. Kospi dropped 0.08 per cent and Straits Times fell 0.2 per cent.
Back home, markets ended a choppy session on a weak note Thursday, taking cues from subdued global peers. Profit booking in index heavy-weight Reliance Industries put pressure on indices. Traders also took some profit home near resistance levels after a two-day rally.
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 16327.84, down 101.07 points or 0.62 per cent. The index touched an intra-day low of 16287.17 and high of 16452.51.
National Stock Exchange’s Nifty closed at 4887.75, down 26.25 points or 0.53 per cent. The broader index hit a low of 4873.70 and high of 4922.05
Top 5 picks | Mid term picks | Gainers, Losers & analysts' recommendations
4800 level seen crucial for Nifty
*********************************************
Heard on Street: Albula laps up Adani Power
Why are institutions so bullish on
realty IPOs?
When an initial public offer (IPO) that is considered expensive gets oversubscribed, conspiracy theories usually follow the talk about the ‘real reasons’ behind the success. Such theories have been doing the rounds in the market, following the IPO success of one such developer recently. Grapevine has it that some of the leading investors in this issue were offered apartments at discounted rates to the market for subscribing to the IPO.
A robust subscription to an issue in the qualified institutional investors category is key to issuers and bankers for attracting the interest of retail investors, who usually look up to this category for cues to invest in an IPO. Such theories are not without reasons. When investors have been dumping shares of most leading developers, which has resulted in the realty index underperforming the benchmark since October, critics ask why these institutional investors are so bullish on realty public issues.
Albula laps up Adani Power as it reshuffles portfolio
The sluggish movement in Adani Power shares after the listing may have caused concern among its retail shareholders, but some investors still sense investment opportunity in the company, going by the trading pattern in the stock in the current market. On Wednesday, a
Sebi-registered FII sub-account Albula Investment Fund bought 43 lakh shares at Rs 108, around 8% higher than the price at which the company had come out with its public issue last year. According to brokers, purchases could be part of a portfolio reshuffling whereby a fund sells high-priced stock to buy a relatively cheaper one, a strategy mostly seen in volatile market conditions. Adani Power closed 1.1% down at Rs 107 on Thursday.
ICICIdirect gets go-ahead for digital KYC
Even as mutual fund distributors are grappling with the execution of the recent Sebi fiat on know your client (KYC) norms, one of the largest online distributors of mutual fund products, ICICIdirect, has been given the go-ahead for an electronically-scanned KYC. It may be recalled that mutual fund distributors had some time ago mooted a central bureau of registry for all KYC documentation.
The distributors have also been lobbying for an electronic
or digital KYC till such time a comprehensive system is in place. The rationale being that this would bring down the volume of paper in the system that would otherwise be generated if the distributors were to send a copy of all supporting documents to the AMCs with retrospective effect ie from 1999 as is the Sebi directive.
(Contributed by Nishanth Vasudevan, Vijay Gurav & Deeptha Rajkumar)
*******************************************
Src: ET, DP Blog etc
MUMBAI: Equities are likely to extend losses on Friday tracking overseas declines. However, stock-specific action is expected on the back of
“Nifty witnessed profit booking after seeing a 2.7% rally in the last two days. Reliance Industries which gave a positive signal in Wednesday’s session was down 3% on Thursday due to which we saw huge pressure on the Sensex. The intermediate rally which started from the lows of 4,675 is still intact unless Nifty breaks below 4,825 on the closing basis.
The daily RSI and MACD are still in a positive territory indicating that this positive uptrend will continue. Strong support is seen at 4,860-4,825 and stiff resistance at 4,920 - 4,950 levels. Nifty is currently in the tight trading band of 4950-4800 and unless we see a break of this range, markets will remain volatile with a positive bias,” said Nirmal Bang Securities.
US stocks rose for a third straight day on Thursday as investors viewed company results and manufacturing data as evidence the economic rebound will continue. Meanwhile, index futures tumbled after the Federal Reserve announced it was raising the discount rate that it charges banks for emergency loans.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 83.66 points, or 0.81 percent, to 10,392.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 7.24 points, or 0.66 percent, to 1,106.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 15.42 points, or 0.69 percent, to 2,241.71.
As a result, Asian stocks declined sending the Nikkei down 0.12 per cent and Topix down 0.07 per cent. Kospi dropped 0.08 per cent and Straits Times fell 0.2 per cent.
Back home, markets ended a choppy session on a weak note Thursday, taking cues from subdued global peers. Profit booking in index heavy-weight Reliance Industries put pressure on indices. Traders also took some profit home near resistance levels after a two-day rally.
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended at 16327.84, down 101.07 points or 0.62 per cent. The index touched an intra-day low of 16287.17 and high of 16452.51.
National Stock Exchange’s Nifty closed at 4887.75, down 26.25 points or 0.53 per cent. The broader index hit a low of 4873.70 and high of 4922.05
Top 5 picks | Mid term picks | Gainers, Losers & analysts' recommendations
4800 level seen crucial for Nifty
*********************************************
Heard on Street: Albula laps up Adani Power
Why are institutions so bullish on
When an initial public offer (IPO) that is considered expensive gets oversubscribed, conspiracy theories usually follow the talk about the ‘real reasons’ behind the success. Such theories have been doing the rounds in the market, following the IPO success of one such developer recently. Grapevine has it that some of the leading investors in this issue were offered apartments at discounted rates to the market for subscribing to the IPO.
A robust subscription to an issue in the qualified institutional investors category is key to issuers and bankers for attracting the interest of retail investors, who usually look up to this category for cues to invest in an IPO. Such theories are not without reasons. When investors have been dumping shares of most leading developers, which has resulted in the realty index underperforming the benchmark since October, critics ask why these institutional investors are so bullish on realty public issues.
Albula laps up Adani Power as it reshuffles portfolio
The sluggish movement in Adani Power shares after the listing may have caused concern among its retail shareholders, but some investors still sense investment opportunity in the company, going by the trading pattern in the stock in the current market. On Wednesday, a
Sebi-registered FII sub-account Albula Investment Fund bought 43 lakh shares at Rs 108, around 8% higher than the price at which the company had come out with its public issue last year. According to brokers, purchases could be part of a portfolio reshuffling whereby a fund sells high-priced stock to buy a relatively cheaper one, a strategy mostly seen in volatile market conditions. Adani Power closed 1.1% down at Rs 107 on Thursday.
ICICIdirect gets go-ahead for digital KYC
Even as mutual fund distributors are grappling with the execution of the recent Sebi fiat on know your client (KYC) norms, one of the largest online distributors of mutual fund products, ICICIdirect, has been given the go-ahead for an electronically-scanned KYC. It may be recalled that mutual fund distributors had some time ago mooted a central bureau of registry for all KYC documentation.
The distributors have also been lobbying for an electronic
or digital KYC till such time a comprehensive system is in place. The rationale being that this would bring down the volume of paper in the system that would otherwise be generated if the distributors were to send a copy of all supporting documents to the AMCs with retrospective effect ie from 1999 as is the Sebi directive.
(Contributed by Nishanth Vasudevan, Vijay Gurav & Deeptha Rajkumar)
*******************************************
Daily News Roundup - Feb 19 2010
Surprise on the Street!
Rural Electrification Corporation FPO
Polaris Software Ltd
ICICI Bank
Tata Steel
HDIL
Hexaware Technologies
Reliance Industries Ltd
Src: ET, DP Blog etc
18 February 2010
Pre-Market: Stocks to open flat on mixed global cues
Pre-Market: Stocks to open flat on mixed global cues
MUMBAI: Stocks are likely to open flat-to-positive on Thursday amid mixed cues from global shores.
“Nifty continued to hold its positive momentum as strong leadership was seen in metals, oil & gas and banking stocks. Market volumes also picked up and it seems that bulls have taken control of the market. If in the near term, Nifty manages to hold 4,825 then it’s quite possible that this rally could extend further 5,050 levels.
The daily RSI and MACD are also giving positive signs indicating that this intermediate uptrend will continue. Strong support seen at 4,860-4,825 and stiff resistance at 4,950, this positive trend could get reverse only if Nifty closes below 4,800,” said Nirmal Bang Securities.
US stocks rose on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected earnings from companies, and upbeat economic data fueled bets that the recovery will bolster corporate profits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 40.36 points, or 0.39 per cent, to end at 10,309.17. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 4.64 points, or 0.42 per cent, to end at 1,099.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 12.10 points, or 0.55 percent, to 2,226.29.
Stocks across Asia were trading with marginal losses. The Nikkei slipped 0.12 per cent, Topix lost 0.14 per cent, Kospi shed 0.21 per cent and Straits Times fell 0.61 per cent.
Back home, equities ended above psychological resistance levels on Wednesday, taking cues from positive global markets. All the sectoral indices ended in the green led by metals, banks and capital goods.
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 16428.91, up 202.23 points or 1.25 per cent. The index touched a high of 16480.49 and low of 16228.91.
National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 4914, up 58.25 points or 1.2 per cent. The broader index hit a high of 4929.70 and low of 4857.60
*******************************************
********************************************
Heard on the street: Punters jack up spot prices of new F&O members
Punters jack up spot prices of new F&O
members
It was a busy day for punters, as they bid up prices of stocks that will be added to NSE’s futures & options list from Friday. Godrej Industries, Videocon Industries and Mundra Port were among the prominent gainers of the day, rising in the 7-9% range accompanied by heavy volumes. Inclusion on the F&O list means that punters get more time to play around with these stocks. Interestingly, Godrej Industries, Mundra Port and BGR Energy witnessed a higher-than-usual-delivery ratio on Thursday.
Short-covering fires up Tata Steel stock
A frenetic bout of short-covering fired up Tata Steel shares over 6% to Rs 584.90 on Wednesday. Many traders and a quite a few hedge funds are said to have gone ‘short’ on the stock, anticipating weak quarterly numbers. But with its performance turning out to be better than expected, these players had to cover up their positions. Among those caught on the wrong foot included a market operator who shares his first name with the Union agriculture minister.
‘Friendly circles’ buy Ruchi Soya shares
Huge blocks of shares changed hands at the Ruchi Soya counter on Wednesday. However, FIs were not involved on either sides of the transaction. Given that “friendly circles” are regularly active in
the stock, the market is not taking much notice of the bulk deals.
Insurers mop up shares of Manappuram General Fin
A couple of insurers are said to be accumulating shares of Manappuram General Finance. The buzz is that the Kochi-based NBFC’s proposed QIP will be priced at Rs 700 per share. Manappuram aims to a raise about Rs 300 crore through the equity issue, to be completed over the next 10 days.
Ranbaxy trades flat as market awaits earnings
Ranbaxy shares closed flat in a buoyant market on Wednesday, after having shot up over 7% the previous session. The company is set to announce its fourth quarter numbers next week. The talk doing the rounds is that a prominent domestic broking firm, known for its strong base of high net worth investors, has bought a sizeable chunk of the stock on behalf of its ‘bulge bracket’ clients. Are they betting on the quarterly numbers?
(Contributed by Santosh Nair & Shailesh Menon)
******************************************
Src: ET, DP Blog and etc
MUMBAI: Stocks are likely to open flat-to-positive on Thursday amid mixed cues from global shores.
“Nifty continued to hold its positive momentum as strong leadership was seen in metals, oil & gas and banking stocks. Market volumes also picked up and it seems that bulls have taken control of the market. If in the near term, Nifty manages to hold 4,825 then it’s quite possible that this rally could extend further 5,050 levels.
The daily RSI and MACD are also giving positive signs indicating that this intermediate uptrend will continue. Strong support seen at 4,860-4,825 and stiff resistance at 4,950, this positive trend could get reverse only if Nifty closes below 4,800,” said Nirmal Bang Securities.
US stocks rose on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected earnings from companies, and upbeat economic data fueled bets that the recovery will bolster corporate profits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 40.36 points, or 0.39 per cent, to end at 10,309.17. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 4.64 points, or 0.42 per cent, to end at 1,099.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 12.10 points, or 0.55 percent, to 2,226.29.
Stocks across Asia were trading with marginal losses. The Nikkei slipped 0.12 per cent, Topix lost 0.14 per cent, Kospi shed 0.21 per cent and Straits Times fell 0.61 per cent.
Back home, equities ended above psychological resistance levels on Wednesday, taking cues from positive global markets. All the sectoral indices ended in the green led by metals, banks and capital goods.
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 16428.91, up 202.23 points or 1.25 per cent. The index touched a high of 16480.49 and low of 16228.91.
National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 4914, up 58.25 points or 1.2 per cent. The broader index hit a high of 4929.70 and low of 4857.60
*******************************************
18 Feb 2010, 0812 hrs IST, VIJAY GURAV,ET Bureau
MNCs gained between 2% and 26% compared to a 6% fall in Sensex since Jan 1. Top 5 picks | MNCs that outperformed Sensex |********************************************
Heard on the street: Punters jack up spot prices of new F&O members
Punters jack up spot prices of new F&O
It was a busy day for punters, as they bid up prices of stocks that will be added to NSE’s futures & options list from Friday. Godrej Industries, Videocon Industries and Mundra Port were among the prominent gainers of the day, rising in the 7-9% range accompanied by heavy volumes. Inclusion on the F&O list means that punters get more time to play around with these stocks. Interestingly, Godrej Industries, Mundra Port and BGR Energy witnessed a higher-than-usual-delivery ratio on Thursday.
Short-covering fires up Tata Steel stock
A frenetic bout of short-covering fired up Tata Steel shares over 6% to Rs 584.90 on Wednesday. Many traders and a quite a few hedge funds are said to have gone ‘short’ on the stock, anticipating weak quarterly numbers. But with its performance turning out to be better than expected, these players had to cover up their positions. Among those caught on the wrong foot included a market operator who shares his first name with the Union agriculture minister.
‘Friendly circles’ buy Ruchi Soya shares
Huge blocks of shares changed hands at the Ruchi Soya counter on Wednesday. However, FIs were not involved on either sides of the transaction. Given that “friendly circles” are regularly active in
the stock, the market is not taking much notice of the bulk deals.
Insurers mop up shares of Manappuram General Fin
A couple of insurers are said to be accumulating shares of Manappuram General Finance. The buzz is that the Kochi-based NBFC’s proposed QIP will be priced at Rs 700 per share. Manappuram aims to a raise about Rs 300 crore through the equity issue, to be completed over the next 10 days.
Ranbaxy trades flat as market awaits earnings
Ranbaxy shares closed flat in a buoyant market on Wednesday, after having shot up over 7% the previous session. The company is set to announce its fourth quarter numbers next week. The talk doing the rounds is that a prominent domestic broking firm, known for its strong base of high net worth investors, has bought a sizeable chunk of the stock on behalf of its ‘bulge bracket’ clients. Are they betting on the quarterly numbers?
(Contributed by Santosh Nair & Shailesh Menon)
******************************************
Tax Saving - Planning Options for Employees
Daily News Roundup - Feb 18 2010
Avoid the risk
India Infrastructure
United Bank of India sets IPO price band at Rs 60-66 a piece
PVR
Top Stocks for 2010
NHPC
Stock Picks
Bharti Airtel Limited
Sugar Sector
Src: ET, DP Blog and etc
17 February 2010
Sensex may drop to 12K: Shankar Sharma
Sensex may drop to 12K: Shankar Sharma
ET Now caught up with Shankar Sharma, Vice Chairman & Joint MD, First Global to seek his views on where the markets were headed in 2010 and
which stocks could be an attractive bet. Excerpts:
Where do you see the markets heading where in a surprising pullback, we have broken that resistance level that we were tracking. We are past 4900 on the Nifty. Do you actually see the markets witnessing a further correction in 2010 and what kind of returns do you expect from equities, especially in emerging markets?
The pullback was very much in order because we had sold off from 17,500 to 15,500. It can easily pull back another 200-500 points on the Sensex. This year is the down year for equities and within the context, emerging markets will do worse than the US markets. The markets that did really well in 2009, that is the BRIC pack, will actually underperform the markets. The markets that did not do that well, like Taiwan or South Korea, have relatively more stable markets than the volatile BRIC pack markets. Overall, this year is the down year for equities by and large.
When you say a down year, what kind of correction do you see both in the short-term and in the long-term?
In the short-term, we definitely do see the markets in the first half coming down 20-30% from the highs of the year, which was 17,500. The markets could easily go down to 12,000-12,500 in the first half and from there, I suspect there will be some measure of recovery. Markets could still ultimately end the year down 10-15% from the close of 2009 which may be around 16,000, but that is a long call or a long short to make just yet. For now, markets are headed lower. However, once they have reached a certain level, then we will see if things have changed enough for them to rally all the way back to close enough to the levels of 2009 December.
Do you think that's going to be a valuation call or is it going to be liquidity driven because we have also just had news that LIC would be pumping in another Rs 15,000 crores by the end of March and other insurance companies are waiting to put more money in. Also, FIIs are bringing in the money. Do you still see corrections coming in?
When the markets sold out 2000 points, the money was still there. These are facile arguments that liquidity ensures the markets will never fall. Throughout the history of the world, there has always been liquidity chasing markets and not markets chasing liquidity and that's the way it is. If the markets have to fall, they will fall. It does not matter whether LIC puts in $2 billion or everybody in the whole world puts in money. I do not waste my time looking at liquidity at all, it makes no difference to broad market trends at all. It might make a difference to thinly traded Z Group stock but other than that, I do not see that being a factor. The overall situation globally is probably headed to be a lot worse than what we saw in 2008. At that time, particularly the second half, we saw the collapse of one investment bank which was not a huge investment bank by any standards, compared to the top 3-4. It was a smallish bank but that itself was large enough to bring down markets substantially and shake the entire world financial system.
1|2|3|4|5|6|Next >
*****************************************
Valuation game hots up: Dozen cos trade at P/E of 100;
analysts chant caution
Tata Steel profit dips to Rs 473 cr
Src: ET
ET Now caught up with Shankar Sharma, Vice Chairman & Joint MD, First Global to seek his views on where the markets were headed in 2010 and
Where do you see the markets heading where in a surprising pullback, we have broken that resistance level that we were tracking. We are past 4900 on the Nifty. Do you actually see the markets witnessing a further correction in 2010 and what kind of returns do you expect from equities, especially in emerging markets?
The pullback was very much in order because we had sold off from 17,500 to 15,500. It can easily pull back another 200-500 points on the Sensex. This year is the down year for equities and within the context, emerging markets will do worse than the US markets. The markets that did really well in 2009, that is the BRIC pack, will actually underperform the markets. The markets that did not do that well, like Taiwan or South Korea, have relatively more stable markets than the volatile BRIC pack markets. Overall, this year is the down year for equities by and large.
When you say a down year, what kind of correction do you see both in the short-term and in the long-term?
In the short-term, we definitely do see the markets in the first half coming down 20-30% from the highs of the year, which was 17,500. The markets could easily go down to 12,000-12,500 in the first half and from there, I suspect there will be some measure of recovery. Markets could still ultimately end the year down 10-15% from the close of 2009 which may be around 16,000, but that is a long call or a long short to make just yet. For now, markets are headed lower. However, once they have reached a certain level, then we will see if things have changed enough for them to rally all the way back to close enough to the levels of 2009 December.
Do you think that's going to be a valuation call or is it going to be liquidity driven because we have also just had news that LIC would be pumping in another Rs 15,000 crores by the end of March and other insurance companies are waiting to put more money in. Also, FIIs are bringing in the money. Do you still see corrections coming in?
When the markets sold out 2000 points, the money was still there. These are facile arguments that liquidity ensures the markets will never fall. Throughout the history of the world, there has always been liquidity chasing markets and not markets chasing liquidity and that's the way it is. If the markets have to fall, they will fall. It does not matter whether LIC puts in $2 billion or everybody in the whole world puts in money. I do not waste my time looking at liquidity at all, it makes no difference to broad market trends at all. It might make a difference to thinly traded Z Group stock but other than that, I do not see that being a factor. The overall situation globally is probably headed to be a lot worse than what we saw in 2008. At that time, particularly the second half, we saw the collapse of one investment bank which was not a huge investment bank by any standards, compared to the top 3-4. It was a smallish bank but that itself was large enough to bring down markets substantially and shake the entire world financial system.
1|2|3|4|5|6|Next >
*****************************************
2010 is a down year for equities: Shankar Sharma ACC resistance seen at Rs 1000: Reliance Money On decline around 840-845, Jain Irrigation an attractive buy: Sandeep Wagle OnMobile interesting bet with longer term perspective: Paras Adenwala Buy Adani Enterprises for target of Rs 570:India Capital Markets Buy Fortis Healthcare for target of Rs 170:India Capital Markets
Valuation game hots up: Dozen cos trade at P/E of 100;
analysts chant caution
Tata Steel profit dips to Rs 473 cr
Src: ET
16 February 2010
Heard on the street: Punters ramp up NMDC ahead of FPO
Heard on the street: Punters ramp up NMDC ahead of FPO
Punters ramp up NMDC ahead of
FPO
The run-up in the share price of the NMDC counter over the past week has once again raised the bogey about valuations among investment bankers managing the company’s impending follow-on public offering. The stock hit a high of Rs 511.95 on February 10, with barely 50% of the trades resulting in delivery. This indicates that punters are ramping up the stock ahead of the FPO, and trying to get institutional investors to bid higher during the auction process.
Institutional investors are said to be showing interest in the stock only around Rs 200-220 levels. This has put the bankers to the issue in a spot, as the prevailing market price is closer to Rs 500. It seems unlikely if the government will be willing to divest stake at such a steep discount to market price.
The issue is said to have come up for discussion at a meeting between the company’s bankers and divestment ministry officials last Saturday. Government officials also debated the rationale for taking the French auction route for the NMDC issue, with some present at that meeting of the view that the methodology needs to be reviewed. NMDC shares closed flat at Rs 485 on Monday.
Traders lap up Titagarh on hopes of Budget boost
Day traders have apparently taken control of the Titagarh Wagons counter ahead of the Railway Budget on February 24. The trigger for the frenzied action in the stock, according to brokers, could be expectations of some measures that would have a positive impact on the company’s prospects.
Titagarh Wagons, one of the leading railway wagon manufacturers in the country, stands to benefit if the government announces introduction of new trains or any such proposal that would push up demand for the company’s products. The stock climbed 17% in just two trading sessions, before ending at Rs 466.6 on Monday.
The spurt in the share price took place amid a significant improvement in volumes as on a daily average basis, 25 lakh shares changed hands on Monday and last Thursday, compared to nearly one lakh shares in the previous two sessions. The interest in the counter, however, was mostly speculative as reflected in low delivery-based volumes. The delivery ratio — the percentage of shares actually delivered in the market — stood 10.7% on Monday and 6.3% on Thursday.
(Contributed by Deeptha Rajkumar & Vijay Gurav)
Src: ET
******************************************
Src: Deadpresident Blog
Punters ramp up NMDC ahead of
The run-up in the share price of the NMDC counter over the past week has once again raised the bogey about valuations among investment bankers managing the company’s impending follow-on public offering. The stock hit a high of Rs 511.95 on February 10, with barely 50% of the trades resulting in delivery. This indicates that punters are ramping up the stock ahead of the FPO, and trying to get institutional investors to bid higher during the auction process.
Institutional investors are said to be showing interest in the stock only around Rs 200-220 levels. This has put the bankers to the issue in a spot, as the prevailing market price is closer to Rs 500. It seems unlikely if the government will be willing to divest stake at such a steep discount to market price.
The issue is said to have come up for discussion at a meeting between the company’s bankers and divestment ministry officials last Saturday. Government officials also debated the rationale for taking the French auction route for the NMDC issue, with some present at that meeting of the view that the methodology needs to be reviewed. NMDC shares closed flat at Rs 485 on Monday.
Traders lap up Titagarh on hopes of Budget boost
Day traders have apparently taken control of the Titagarh Wagons counter ahead of the Railway Budget on February 24. The trigger for the frenzied action in the stock, according to brokers, could be expectations of some measures that would have a positive impact on the company’s prospects.
Titagarh Wagons, one of the leading railway wagon manufacturers in the country, stands to benefit if the government announces introduction of new trains or any such proposal that would push up demand for the company’s products. The stock climbed 17% in just two trading sessions, before ending at Rs 466.6 on Monday.
The spurt in the share price took place amid a significant improvement in volumes as on a daily average basis, 25 lakh shares changed hands on Monday and last Thursday, compared to nearly one lakh shares in the previous two sessions. The interest in the counter, however, was mostly speculative as reflected in low delivery-based volumes. The delivery ratio — the percentage of shares actually delivered in the market — stood 10.7% on Monday and 6.3% on Thursday.
(Contributed by Deeptha Rajkumar & Vijay Gurav)
Src: ET
******************************************
Daily Newsletter - Feb 16 2010
Morning Note - Feb 16 2010
Bharti Airtel - Zain Deal
All India GSM Figures
India Budget Previews
Geodesic
Src: Deadpresident Blog
15 February 2010
Bharti shares plunge 10% on Zain deal
Bharti to buy Zain's SA assets for $10.7 bn, street cautious
Bharti shares plunge 10% on Zain deal
MUMBAI - Shares of Bharti Airtel plunged nearly 10 per cent Monday as brokerages gave a thumbs down to the company’s deal with Kuwaiti telecom
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch cut Bharti Airtel to ‘underperform’ from ‘buy’ after the mobile operator began its exclusive talks with Zain. The investment bank said the valuation seems rich, the growth outlook for Zain's African portfolio appears unexciting and a potential deal could materially stress Bharti's balance sheet.
Bharti announced Monday an offer to buy the African assets of Kuwait's Zain telecom for $10.7 billion. Bharti Airtel and Zain Africa "have agreed to enter into exclusive
discussions until 25 March, 2010 for the acquisition of Zain's African unit based on an enterprise value of $10.7 billion," Bharti said in a statement.
A consortium of Asian investors has for months been trying to buy Zain's stakes estimated to be worth $13.7 billion from Kuwaiti family conglomerate Kharafi Group, which is one of the main shareholders in Zain.
Meanwhile, Telecom Minister A Raja commented that the Bharti-Zain deal is good for the industry.
Ambareesh Baliga, vice president at Karvy Stock Broking feels that the deal seems too expensive for Bharti and although the stock may stand to benefit in the long term, the short term is negative. “This looks a bit expensive for Bharti considering these are not extremely profitable operations. Those are future growth areas. But the growth will come only in 5-8 years time and in the short-term there is a risk of straining Bharti's balance sheet," said Baliga.
Giving a fundamental take on the deal, Romal Shetty, head- telecom, KPMG said, “Bharti’s bid is a step in the right direction to make its footprint in Africa. This is where the next round of growth is going to happen. India is becoming more and more saturated in the coming years. Africa is under-pentrated and has lesser competition thus making the Zean deal an attractive buy for Bharti.”
At 3 pm, shares of Bharti Airtel tumbled 9.11 per cent to Rs 285.85 in reaction to the deal.
Full Coverage: Bharti-Zain deal | Stock quote: Bharti Airtel
**************************************
Check out the Top 10 Fund Houses for the quarter
Market Watch: Nifty hovers around 4800; Bharti, Sterlite down
Inflation hits 14-month high at 8.56% in January
*******************************************
Src: ET, Moneycontrol
Morning Calls
Short covering triggers rally
******************************************
'Frontline stocks can rise by up to 35 pc'
Top 5 stock picks | Mid-term picks | D-St's Budget expectations
Nifty resistance zone seen at 4900-5000
Src: ET, Business-Standard, DP Blog and etc
The market saw a technical pullback via short-covering ahead of a long weekend. The Nifty, which slid to a 2010 low of 4,675 points on Monday, closed at 4,826.85 for a week-on-week gain of 2.4 per cent. The Sensex closed at 16,152 for an identical gain. The Defty rose by 2.7 per cent as the rupee rallied from lower levels. Breadth was good with advances outnumbering declines for the week. However, volumes were low. The FIIs were heavy net sellers, counter-balanced to some degree by moderate domestic institutional buying. The BSE500 was up 2.4 per cent while Midcaps underperformed the major indices, rising only 1.8 per cent.
Rationale: A sharp jump on low volumes ahead of a weekend is characteristic of a short-covering rally. The market would need significant volume expansion to cross 4,850. If it does so, a move past 4,950 would suggest an end to the intermediate downtrend, which has lasted five weeks so far.
Counter-view: Most likely, shorts will be renewed and push the market down to the strong support in the 4,650-4,700 range, followed by range-trading between 4,650 and 4,850. But a dip below 4,650, and especially a close below 4,650, would be a serious danger signal. That would be a Southwards breach of the 200 Day Moving Average, which is between 4,660 (exponential) and 4,684 (simple), and perhaps, the beginning of a new bear market.
Bulls & Bears: The CNXIT index continued to outperform the overall market, gaining 3.6 per cent. The move here was sector-wide. The banking (and financials) sector underperformed, with the Bank Nifty gaining only 1.9 per cent.
Real estate saw a late rally, which could fizzle out soon. Metals saw short-covering, which may continue for a couple more sessions. Sugar and cement scrips also saw a rally as did auto-stocks and in all three cases, there could be a little upside. Oil production and exploration scrips saw speculative investments. In most cases, the rise came on low volumes and clearly seemed to be short-covering or buybacks following sales against delivery. However, a lot of stocks have consolidated at lower levels before moving up.
MICRO TECHNICALS
HIND OIL EXPLORATION
Current Price: Rs 269.95
Target Price: Rs 290
The stock jumped from Rs 229 to current levels in one session on massive volume expansion. This is an unusual, difficult to read pattern. On volumes alone, there should be an upside till Rs 290. Keep a stop at Rs 263 and go long. Raise the stop by 5 units for every 5-unit rise. Book at least 50 per cent profit at Rs 290.
SESA GOA
Current Price: Rs 382.70
Target Price: Rs 405
The stock has rebounded from decent support between Rs 355 and Rs 365 to current levels. Volumes are average. If it can close above Rs 385, it has the potential to reach Rs 405. Keep a stop at Rs 375 and go long. Add to the position above Rs 385. Book profits at Rs 405.
ORIENTAL BANK
Current Price: Rs 274
Target Price: Rs 255
The stock has shown volume expansion and a lot of volatility, while ranging between Rs 250 and Rs 290 in the past few sessions. It is likely to see a downside in the next week, till at least Rs 265 level and maybe till Rs 255. Keep a stop at Rs 280 and go short. Cover 50 per cent of the position at Rs 265 and reset the stop till Rs 270.
JP ASSOCIATES
Current Price: Rs 132.65
Target Price: Rs 140
The stock has bottomed out close to the current levels and it may be set for another up move. A technical recovery to the Rs 140 level is possible. Keep a stop at Rs 130 and go long. Volumes are not great. So a move past resistance at Rs 140 is unlikely.
UNITECH
Current Price: Rs 74.80
Target Price: Rs 70
Short-covering has pulled the stock up but this looks like temporary relief. Another selloff next week could push the stock back till support at Rs 70. Keep a stop at Rs 77 and short. Cover 50 per cent of the position at Rs 72 and clear the rest at Rs 70.
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
******************************************
'Frontline stocks can rise by up to 35 pc'
Top 5 stock picks | Mid-term picks | D-St's Budget expectations
Nifty resistance zone seen at 4900-5000
Idea Cellular
Bharti Airtel
Videocon Industries
Investor Conference - Feb 14 2010
Tulip Telecom
Transformers & Rectifiers
Consolidated Construction Consortium
Weekly Support and Resistance Levels - Feb 14 2010
SAIL
Cairn India
Src: ET, Business-Standard, DP Blog and etc
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)