Global mkts in a tizzy as S&P junks Greece

Global mkts in a tizzy as S&P junks Greece


MUMBAI: Stocks, bonds, crude oil and commodities tumbled as investors feared a wave of sovereign debt crisis, similar to the 1997 Asian crisis, after Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s rating to junk and lowered Portugal two notches. Safe haven gold rose.

Investors fear the downgrade of these two nations may be the beginning of a series of such moves as most governments are burdened with debt after they spent their way out of recession following the credit crisis. Even the US is under threat of losing its top rating.

“The biggest risk now is that the market speculates against every single indebted peripheral country, and that could lead to a sovereign debt crisis,” Axel Botte, a strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris, told Bloomberg News. “The contagion risk is real. It’s much easier to bail out a bank than to bail out a country.”


The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 3.1% in New York, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.6%, crude oil sank 2.4%, while copper plunged 4.3%. ADRs of ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank crashed. Gold rose 0.7%, or $8, to $1161.57 an ounce.

Standard & Poor’s cut Greece three levels to BB+, or junk, and lowered Portugal two steps to A- as they stare at a default. Greek notes slid earlier as concern deepened that the nation will ask investors to accept delayed or reduced debt payments.

The European Union, which had pledged to support Greece, has been dragging its feet on the conditionalities to extend a bailout. Emerging markets could be the worst-hit in a sovereign crisis as global investors pull out funds in a flight to safety.

Global investors could sell developing market stocks and bonds, and buy US treasuries or German bonds which are considered the safest. The cost of borrowing for both companies and countries are set to rise.

“We could see another wave of forced deleveraging, which could obviously affect any high-yielding assets, including emerging-markets debt,” Luis Costa, an emerging markets strategist at Citigroup, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.

The average spread for emerging-market bonds over the US treasury climbed 18 basis points to 261 basis points, the largest increase since February.

A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.7% and Brazil’s Bovespa index tumbled 2.4%. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 2.1% earlier to a six-month low, the most since February 5.

“We’re entering a phase of blind panic,” said Orlando Green, an interest-rate strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in London. “Given the inaction of the euro nations to back Greece and to get things done quickly, we’ve found now this inaction has been a big obstacle. That’s not satisfying for the markets, and not for S&P either; hence, the downgrade.”



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Reliance Q4 Results

Reliance Q4 net rises; refining margins drag

Energy major Reliance Industries posted a 30% rise in quarterly profit but lagged estimates as lower-than-expected refining margins offset gains from higher gas output off India's east coast.

India's largest listed conglomerate, controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, has been scouting for acquisitions overseas, and progress on that front will determine its outlook.

"We continue to seek growth opportunities within India and globally to accelerate further value creation," Ambani said in a statement.

Reliance, with interests in petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration, and retail, posted January-March net profit of Rs 4710 crore (USD 1.1 billion) versus Rs 3630 crore a year earlier.

The year-ago results were restated to include figures from Reliance Petroleum, which it absorbed last year.

A Reuters poll had forecast quarterly net profit of Rs 5190 crore.

Margins at Reliance's flagship refining business stood at USD 7.5 a barrel for the quarter, but lagged market estimates of USD 8.3 a barrel. Analysts expect margins to rise as the global economy recovers.

The company recently said it would pay USD 1.7 billion to form a joint venture with Atlas Energy at one of the most promising natural gas deposit regions in the United States.

The outcome of a long-running gas dispute with Reliance Natural, led by Mukesh's younger brother Anil, will also have a bearing on the company's outlook.

Reliance is unable to hit peak gas production of 80 million standard cubic metres a day (mmscmd) at its D6 block in the vast Krishna Godavari basin in the Bay of Bengal due to customers not buying allocated volumes, and a lack of pipelines.

But analysts say current production of 60 mmscmd is still enough to boost results. Reliance began pumping gas from the block in April last year.

Shares in Reliance, India's biggest listed firm with a market value of about USD 78 billion, have dropped 8% in the past two weeks, while the broader Mumbai market is down 2.6%.

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Buy Stocks Of Blue Chip Companies At Discounted Price

Buy Stocks Of Blue Chip Companies At Discounted Price

If you were given a special “offer” of a 30 per cent discount on all Tata group shares relative to their current market prices, would you take it? How? Here's the article from The Hindu Business Line explaining how you can get blue chip stocks at discount!

Well, it is exactly such opportunities that you get to capture when you buy the holding or investment arms of India's key business groups. Take Bajaj Holdings and UB Holdings, the holding companies of the Bajaj and UB groups. They hold investment books which are worth Rs 16,000 crore and Rs 5,500 crore respectively at today's market prices. Yet the stocks sport market capitalisations that are at a steep discount to this value, at Rs 6,500 crore and Rs 1,800 crore respectively.

These are not odd cases, there seem to be many more instances where the holding or investment companies of business groups are trading at a steep discount to the real value of their investment book (the Net Asset Value, NAV).

As the Indian market continues to tread higher, investors are finding it harder to spot undervalued bets in the market.

The enormity of information available has also led to most of the undervalued stocks getting re-rated. However, one pocket of stocks which continue to trade at a steep discount to their intrinsic value are investment andholding companies of major business groups. In addition, there are also other companies (such as Ramco Industries and Aditya Birla Nuvo) with large investment books (quoted) which supplement their core business.

Business Line's analysis of these companies indicates that the companies trade at a steep discount to their NAV (ranging from 35per cent to 80 per cent). They have also underperformed (in some cases delivered negative returns) the broader market index over the last four years.

From the investment data in the balance-sheets of listed companies, around 27 companies' market capitalisation is less than their respectiveinvestment book value. Of which, 14 companies are mainly holding and investment companies whereas others (such as Rajapalayam Mills and Binani Industries) also operate separate standalone businesses. The assumption is that these companies have not made material changes to their investment holdings since March 2009.

The stock market prices of holding and investment companies are all at a discount to the underlying value of investments they hold — with stock prices amounting to 20-65 per cent of their quoted investment book per share.

If unquoted investments are taken into account, the discount would widen in many cases.

Assuming that the companies have not liquidated their stakes since March 31, 2009, JSW Holding and Tata Investment Corporation are trading closest to their NAV, at a discount of 8 per cent and 24 per cent to their respective quoted portfolios. On the other hand, Williamson Magor (with major investments in Mcleod Russel, McNally Bharat and Eveready Industries) and Nagreeka Capital (with investments in Sterlite Industries) are trading at less than one-fifth of theirinvestment book . Stocks such as UB Holdings and Nalwa Sons are trading at almost half their investment values. The discount seems to be wider for smaller rather than largerholding companies.

The implied discount may be even higher in some cases as the holding and investment companies may have cross-holdings.

For instance, JSW Holdings, apart from the steel portfolio, also has investments in Nalwa Sons, which is already at a discount to its own investment book.

Bajaj Holdings and Maharashtra Scooters have stakes in each other, in addition to investment in Bajaj Group stocks. Where there are multipleholding companies within a group, investors may find the one at a steeper discount a better bet. For instance, between Nalwa Sons and JSW Holdings, the discount in Nalwa Sons is higher as compared to JSW Holdings making it better value. Same is the case with McDowell Holding which is trading at a higher discount to its fair value compared to UB Holdings.

Gaining favour
Though the investment companies are available at an attractive discount, their long term stock performance hasn't been very encouraging. Over the last four years as the broader market index BSE 500 gave a 13per cent annual return, quite a few holding companies and investment companies have given negative returns. JSW Holdings, Nalwa Sons and HB portfolios were exceptions with an annual return of 75 per cent, 27 per cent, and 14 per cent respectively.

However, the market does seem to be turning its attention to these companies. Some investment companies do seem to have gained market favour, delivering higher than market return (BSE 500) in the last one year.

For instance, UB Holdings and Maharashtra Scooters gained 260 per cent and 350 per cent respectively as against the 100 per cent return of BSE 500 index.

Good performance of the underlying stocks has been reflected in the stock price gains of Nalwa Sons and JSW Holdings which hold all the listed companies of the JSW group. HB Portfolio too has gained as it holds JP Associates, a high beta stock.

Analysis also shows that historically the discount on the holding companies narrowed more during periods of market correction (underlying companies' stocks falling) rather than during market highs. That is the underlying stocks have usually outperformed in a rising market and fallen more in a bearish market.

For instance, Nalwa Sons and Jindal South West Holdings saw their stocks trading at a premium to their underlying NAV of the stocks during the period January-March 2009, when JSW Steel, Jindal Stainless and Jindal Saw touched their multi-year lows. Why the discount?

Holding or investment companies may be a good way for investors to buy blue-chips at a discount.

However, not all of them may be good investment bets due to the discount factor alone. Here is what investors should watch out for while considering them:

For the holding company to be a good “buy” the underlying stocks should be worth investing in, the prospects of the underlying businesses should figure prominently in the investment decision.

Holding companies are similar to the perpetual close-ended mutual funds which have never paid dividends. Their stocks trade at a discount because the value of the investments is essentially on paper.

It is the promise of value unlocking that can really serve as a trigger for the discount to narrow. This can happen through periodic liquidation of holdings or a delisting of the company itself.

Even the dividends paid out by the holding companies are highly correlated to dividend received in turn from their holdings.

Concentration is another risk the investors have to bear in mind. Investing in a holding arm of a group means holding a number of companies from the same business group from different sectors.

For instance, by holding Tata Investment Corp an investor will end up tracking the whole Tata group portfolio.

However, given the choice investors may not want to bet on all the businesses at the same time. Same is the case with other holding companies too.
Source: The Hindu Business Line


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TCS joins the IT party, posts 47% rise in net

MUMBAI: India’s largest software exporter Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) joined rival Infosys in signalling an improving environment for the country’s $60-billion IT industry, as increased spending from top customers such as Citibank and General Electric boosts profits.

TCS is the second major Indian information technology firm to report strong quarterly results, underscoring optimism about a recovery, after a severe downturn crimped margins and profit growth in 2009. Earlier this month, Infosys made a thumping statement on business recovery by forecasting a 16-18% growth for this financial year, awarded wage hikes of 14% and revealed plans to recruit 30,000 employees.

On Monday, Mumbai-based TCS posted the fastest profit growth in three years by reporting a 47% jump in fourth-quarter profit to Rs 1,931 crore. Revenue rose at a more sluggish pace of 7.9% to Rs 7,377 crore.

“The profit growth looks awesome, makes me want to say IT’s back. The revenue growth, however, doesn’t seem that amazing,” said an analyst with an MNC broking house.

TCS’ profit was boosted by Rs 42 crore of gains due to currency fluctuations while a 3.6% appreciation in the rupee impacted operating profit margins by 1.92%.

“While FY10 has been a challenging year, we have used this time to improve efficiencies and generate better returns by boosting margins. Our cost base has remained constant and we have leveraged this to support higher business growth,” N Chandrasekaran, CEO and MD of TCS, said.

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Dalal St's intermediate uptrend may be over

Dalal St's intermediate uptrend may be over

he market fell during each of the four sessions last week, at the end of which the Sensex finished 1.91% or 341.96 points lower, and the Nifty ended 1.85% down. The CNX Midcap Index lost 1.12%.

Infosys was the biggest winner among index stocks with a 4.0% gain. The other index stocks to go up included TCS, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever and Sun Pharmaceutical with gains between 2.8% and 1.7%. HDFC was the biggest loser among index stocks with a 5.9% loss. The other index stocks to go down included ICICI Bank, Reliance Communications and Sterlite Industries with losses falling between 5.8% and 5.4%.

Ruchi Soya Industries was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 13.6% gain. The other non-index stocks to go up included Indiabulls Financial, Valecha Engineering, Balrampur Chini, Unitech, Jet Airways, JSW Steel and Zee Entertainment with gains between 10.4% and 3.8%.

Amrutanjan Health Care was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 27.8% loss. The other non-index stocks to go down included Intrasoft Technologies, Syncom Healthcare, United Spirits, Essar Oil, Punj Lloyd, Kotak Mahindra Bank and IDFC with losses falling between 11.9% and 7.2%.

INTERMEDIATE TREND:

The market’s intermediate trend appears to have turned down with the Sensex breaching its intermediate downtrend trigger level of 17,650, the Nifty going below 5,275, and the CNX Midcap falling below its equivalent of 7,875. These levels are the lows of the previous minor decline, rounded down to the nearest 25.

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Goldman Sachs Fraud - Effects On Stock Markets

Goldman Sachs Fraud - Effects On Stock Markets

Securities and Exchange Commission in US has filed a civil suit against Goldman Sachs accusing of securities fraud on Friday. World stock markets dropped considerably after this news. How is this going to affect Indian Stock Markets?

On Friday,it was reported that Goldman Sachs was sued by SEC, with the US market regulator alleging that Goldman had created and sold a complex investment product related to housing finance that was secretly devised to fail.

The news of the suit pulled down Goldman and other financial services stocks,which in turn affected the Dow Jones Index also. the Dow Jones industrial average was down 125.90 points (1.13%), at 11,018.66, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 19.54 points, (1.61%), at 1,192.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 34.43 points,or 1.37%, at 2481.26.

Effects of Goldman Sachs Fraud on Indian Stock Markets
How much could this affect Indian Stock Markets? The sensex had rallied over 10% to above 18000 after budget in February 2010, but this week it has lost nearly 350 points to close at 17,591 on Friday. The stock brokers expect some profit taking on Monday. I believe it could be in tunes of 1 - 1.5% which translates into 170 - 200 points correction.

Stock market research analysts also feel the stocks of companies in which Goldman Sachs holds stake, could witness heightened selling on Monday. According to data collated by Bloomberg, the top five holdings for Goldman Sachs Invest Mauritius were LIC Housing Finance, Lanco Infra, CESC, United Phosphorus and Educomp Solutions.

Goldman Sachs' total investments in Indian stocks could be worth more than Rs 2,000 crore.





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News RoundUp

Tata, RIL among world's 50 most innovative cos

EW YORK: Two Indian corporate giants, Tata Group and Reliance Industries, have made to a new list of world's 50 most innovative companies, but it is US-based Apple Computer sitting on the top.

Between them, Tata Group is better placed as the world's 17th most innovative compared to Mukesh Ambani-led RIL's 33rd position globally in this league.

Having brought Mac computers, iPod music players and the new sleek touch-screen laptop iPad to this world, Apple has retained its top slot, while compatriot internet giant Google remains the "silver medallist" in the latest edition of annual rankings prepared by BusinessWeek magazine in collaboration with global research firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

But, the US supremacy on these rankings is under threat due to Asia's fast rise. There are as many as 15 companies from Asia on the list, as against five in 2006.

Besides, for the first time since the inaugural list in 2005, the number of companies from the US has fallen below that of the non-US entities among the top-25.

India, however, has limited role in Asia's growing clout. There are five companies from Japan, another five from China and Taiwan, three from South Korea and just two from India.

Besides, both Indian entities on the list have moved down from their previous year rankings. In 2009, Tata group was ranked at 13th place, while Reliance Industries at 15th.

This is despite innovative being seen as a key for the country's economic growth, as per the survey conducted by BCG and BusinessWeek for compilation of the rankings.

About 89 per cent of executives in India said innovation was key to economic growth, while in the US only 72 per cent said innovation was important, the report said.

At the top of the list, Apple and Google are followed by software giant Microsoft, technology giant IBM and Japanese auto major Toyota in the top five.

Others in the top-ten included Amazon.com, LG Electronics, BYD, General Electric and Sony.

While Asia is growing fast, North America leads the tally with 24 companies on the list. There are 11 companies from Europe and one from South America (Brazil's Petrobras).

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Q4 Earnings

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