http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
Stocks to buy: HDIL, Exide industries : Jan 9th Article.
Heard on the street : SpiceJet, MRO Tech : Jan 9th article
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Sensex shrugs off FII void to hit 21K
Shaky at higher levels Sensex fails to hold 21k
Nifty tops Sensex in 2007 returns
Manaksia lists at 9.56% on NSE
SBI, ICICI buy 3% in Jaiprakash Power Ventures
Bull run and India's consumption story
Patel Engg Q3 net 32% higher at Rs 32 cr
Mahindra & Mahindra buys Italian design firm
PGCIL to call bids for $1 bn transmission system in Feb
ADAG in talks with US largest miner NACC for JV
Simplex bags Rs 481 cr order for civil work
Emaar MGF Land to raise up to $1.5 bn in India IPO
Infosys results keep investors on the edge
Promoters cash on share boom; overseas investors ready to buy
Need for cleaner capital market
Source: Above site. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
This blog is for providing daily news of Corporate Indian Stories, Corporate Results, Equities, MFs, Banking,Insurance, Brokerages Informations, World Business, Venture Capital, Angel Investors, BSchools, MBAs,Jobs, Politics & something Interesting.Our team will be grateful to the owners of various Indian/world/govt sites to refer their sites to get INFORMATION without objection.Request viewers to make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
08 January 2008
Deadpresident Blog Updates
http://deadpresident.blogspot.com
The elephant and the bull market
Q3FY2008 Earnings Preview
Emaar MGF IPO coming soon
Market up but smallcaps slaughtered
Market Close: 21k touched but..Couldn't sustain?
India Investment Strategy
India Equity Investment Strategy
India Strategy, Sun TV, Ashok Leyland
Everest Kanto, Panacea Biotec, Cement, Banking
Simplex Infrastructures
Post Session Market Commentary
Manaksia ends 5% higher on debut
Small-cap, mid-cap indices retreat even as Sensex strikes record high
Market ends flat amid volatility
Nicholas Piramal
IPO Grey Market Premiums
Source: http://deadpresident.blogspot.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
The elephant and the bull market
Q3FY2008 Earnings Preview
Emaar MGF IPO coming soon
Market up but smallcaps slaughtered
Market Close: 21k touched but..Couldn't sustain?
India Investment Strategy
India Equity Investment Strategy
India Strategy, Sun TV, Ashok Leyland
Everest Kanto, Panacea Biotec, Cement, Banking
Simplex Infrastructures
Post Session Market Commentary
Manaksia ends 5% higher on debut
Small-cap, mid-cap indices retreat even as Sensex strikes record high
Market ends flat amid volatility
Nicholas Piramal
IPO Grey Market Premiums
Source: http://deadpresident.blogspot.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Myiris.com, Moneycontrol.com Updates
Myiris.com
Brokers` outlook: Market may continue to be choppy on Wed
Power Grid board earmarks Rs 85 bn capex for FY 09
Manaksia settles at 2.94% premium at NSE on day 1
Koutons Retail eyes 51% stake in Touchwood International
SREI Infrastructure Finance launches new financial instrument
BT Group selects Subex Azure for 3 separate deployments
MF Global maintains `BUY` on Simplex Infrastructures
Simplex Infrastructures bags order worth Rs 4.81 bn
Adani Enterprises to raise Rs 30 bn via QIP
Emaar MGF Land to raise up to USD 1.5 bn
December car sales up 8.87%, bike sales dip 11.45%
Sterlite Technologies bags contract worth Rs 1.4 bn
Cheers! Sensex welcomes 2008 with 21K
RNRL likely to acquire overseas mines for Krishnapatnam project
Bajaj Hindustan forays into infra biz
-------------------------------------------
Moneycontrol.com
Mkts end flat amid volatility: Metals, midcaps down
Liquidity to dominate mkt proceedings in 2008: BNP Paribas
IT earnings to spring +ve surprise: ABN Amro
'Sensex cos' earnings to grow at 17.5%'
Sensex takes 49 days for journey to 21K
Still bullish on mid & smallcaps: Angel
RNRL can touch Rs 265-270 in short-term
Largecaps may outperform other stocks in '08: DSP ML
Midcap pick: Dishman Pharma set to grow big
CLSA sees Sensex EPS growth of 26% in FY09
Grey mkt overpriced Reliance Power IPO: Vijay
Manaksia ends with 4.7% premium
J Kumar Infra fixes IPO price band at Rs 110-120/sh
Sebi to provide tonic for infra projects now
Source: www.moneycontrol.com and www.myiris.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Brokers` outlook: Market may continue to be choppy on Wed
Power Grid board earmarks Rs 85 bn capex for FY 09
Manaksia settles at 2.94% premium at NSE on day 1
Koutons Retail eyes 51% stake in Touchwood International
SREI Infrastructure Finance launches new financial instrument
BT Group selects Subex Azure for 3 separate deployments
MF Global maintains `BUY` on Simplex Infrastructures
Simplex Infrastructures bags order worth Rs 4.81 bn
Adani Enterprises to raise Rs 30 bn via QIP
Emaar MGF Land to raise up to USD 1.5 bn
December car sales up 8.87%, bike sales dip 11.45%
Sterlite Technologies bags contract worth Rs 1.4 bn
Cheers! Sensex welcomes 2008 with 21K
RNRL likely to acquire overseas mines for Krishnapatnam project
Bajaj Hindustan forays into infra biz
-------------------------------------------
Moneycontrol.com
Mkts end flat amid volatility: Metals, midcaps down
Liquidity to dominate mkt proceedings in 2008: BNP Paribas
IT earnings to spring +ve surprise: ABN Amro
'Sensex cos' earnings to grow at 17.5%'
Sensex takes 49 days for journey to 21K
Still bullish on mid & smallcaps: Angel
RNRL can touch Rs 265-270 in short-term
Largecaps may outperform other stocks in '08: DSP ML
Midcap pick: Dishman Pharma set to grow big
CLSA sees Sensex EPS growth of 26% in FY09
Grey mkt overpriced Reliance Power IPO: Vijay
Manaksia ends with 4.7% premium
J Kumar Infra fixes IPO price band at Rs 110-120/sh
Sebi to provide tonic for infra projects now
Source: www.moneycontrol.com and www.myiris.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Labels:
Moneycontrol.com Updates,
MyIris.Com
Results: Prism, Shree Cement, Patel Engg Etc
Myiris.com
Sree Rayalaseema Alkalies`net up 32.72% in Dec`07 qtr
Prism Cement net up 28.67% for Dec`07 qtr
Hyderabad-based cement maker Prism Cement (Q, N,C,F)* reported 28.67% growth in net profit to Rs 644.50 million for the latest quarter ended December 2007 as compared with Rs 500.90 million in the corresponding quarter, last fiscal.Net sales for the quarter increased 20.05% to Rs 2,281.10 million as against Rs 1,900.10 million for the same quarter, a year ago.
Total income for the latest quarter rose 21.79% to Rs 2,321.80 million from Rs 1,906.40 million for the corresponding quarter, last year.
The earnings per share (EPS) of the company rose 28.57% to Rs 2.16 for the quarter ended December 2007.Shares of the company gained Rs 1.35, or 1.8%, to trade at Rs 76.2. The total volume of shares traded was 688,228 at the BSE. (12.07 p.m., Tuesday).
Patel Engineering net up 20.10% in Dec`07 qtr
Patel Engineering registered a 20.10% rise in net profit to Rs 350.30 million for the quarter ended December 2007, as against Rs 291.65 million for the same quarter, a year ago.
Net sales rose 20.05% to Rs 2,621.60 million in the quarter ended December 2007, from Rs 2,183.63 million in the corresponding quarter, last year.Total income rose 20.81% to Rs 2,651.10 million in the latest quarter from Rs 2,194.38 million, a year ago.The basic and diluted earnings per share after extraordinary items, stood at Rs 5.88 for the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 5.04 in the corresponding quarter, last year.
Patel Engineering operates in the areas of industrial complexes, building projects, power projects & underground works, dams, bridges & marine works. The company has been involved in implementing projects relating to steel plants, oil refineries, foundries & machine shops, chemical plants, thermal, atomic and hydro-electric projects, tunneling and underground construction, dams, bridges and marine works.Shares of the company were last trading down Rs 5.5, or 0.55%, at Rs 993.95. The total volume of shares traded at the BSE was 22,910. (11.20 a.m., Tuesday ).
Shree Cement Q3 net profit down at Rs 35
Shree Cement Q3 net profit down at Rs 35 cr
Shree Cements announced its Q3 FY08 result. The company in Q3 of FY08 has posted standalone net profit of Rs 35 crore versus Rs 104 crore on YoY basis.
During the same period, the company's standalone net sales were seen up at Rs 523.6 crore versus Rs 364.5 crore, YoY.
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Today Results:
Results Calender
Axis Bank 09-Jan-08
iGATE Solutions 09-Jan-08
Mastek 09-Jan-08
South Ind Bk 09-Jan-08
Source: www.indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com and www.myiris.com . We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Sree Rayalaseema Alkalies`net up 32.72% in Dec`07 qtr
Prism Cement net up 28.67% for Dec`07 qtr
Hyderabad-based cement maker Prism Cement (Q, N,C,F)* reported 28.67% growth in net profit to Rs 644.50 million for the latest quarter ended December 2007 as compared with Rs 500.90 million in the corresponding quarter, last fiscal.Net sales for the quarter increased 20.05% to Rs 2,281.10 million as against Rs 1,900.10 million for the same quarter, a year ago.
Total income for the latest quarter rose 21.79% to Rs 2,321.80 million from Rs 1,906.40 million for the corresponding quarter, last year.
The earnings per share (EPS) of the company rose 28.57% to Rs 2.16 for the quarter ended December 2007.Shares of the company gained Rs 1.35, or 1.8%, to trade at Rs 76.2. The total volume of shares traded was 688,228 at the BSE. (12.07 p.m., Tuesday).
Patel Engineering net up 20.10% in Dec`07 qtr
Patel Engineering registered a 20.10% rise in net profit to Rs 350.30 million for the quarter ended December 2007, as against Rs 291.65 million for the same quarter, a year ago.
Net sales rose 20.05% to Rs 2,621.60 million in the quarter ended December 2007, from Rs 2,183.63 million in the corresponding quarter, last year.Total income rose 20.81% to Rs 2,651.10 million in the latest quarter from Rs 2,194.38 million, a year ago.The basic and diluted earnings per share after extraordinary items, stood at Rs 5.88 for the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 5.04 in the corresponding quarter, last year.
Patel Engineering operates in the areas of industrial complexes, building projects, power projects & underground works, dams, bridges & marine works. The company has been involved in implementing projects relating to steel plants, oil refineries, foundries & machine shops, chemical plants, thermal, atomic and hydro-electric projects, tunneling and underground construction, dams, bridges and marine works.Shares of the company were last trading down Rs 5.5, or 0.55%, at Rs 993.95. The total volume of shares traded at the BSE was 22,910. (11.20 a.m., Tuesday ).
Shree Cement Q3 net profit down at Rs 35
Shree Cement Q3 net profit down at Rs 35 cr
Shree Cements announced its Q3 FY08 result. The company in Q3 of FY08 has posted standalone net profit of Rs 35 crore versus Rs 104 crore on YoY basis.
During the same period, the company's standalone net sales were seen up at Rs 523.6 crore versus Rs 364.5 crore, YoY.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today Results:
Results Calender
Axis Bank 09-Jan-08
iGATE Solutions 09-Jan-08
Mastek 09-Jan-08
South Ind Bk 09-Jan-08
Source: www.indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com and www.myiris.com . We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Labels:
Patel Engg Etc,
Results: Prism,
Shree Cement
Sensex achieves 21K milestone
Sensex achieves 21K milestone
Mumbai (PTI): On hopes of corporates posting good results for the third quarter, the Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex on Tuesday surpassed a new milestone of 21,000 points during the intra-day but ended the day below the peak level in volatile trade amid mixed global cues.
The Sensex hit an all-time trading peak of 21,077.53 points but rolled back to 20,873.33 points, a gain of 60.68 points compared to its Monday's close.
The index fluctuated widely in more than 600 points.
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Sensex ends 61 pts up
Shaky at higher levels Sensex fails to hold
Nifty tops Sensex with 60% returns in '07
Sensex firms may lead Q3 slowdown
NSE 6287.85 8.75
BSE 20873.33 60.68
Equities, led by heavyweights, opened on a high note this morning thanks to a recovery in global markets. And the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty scaled new peaks in virtually no time.
While the Sensex vaulted past the 21,000 mark for the first ever time and touched a new all-time high of 21,077.53, the Nifty raced past its previous best of 6300.05 to 6357.10. But then, the fall from those levels also happened in a flash. Though the Sensex managed to hang on in the positive territory for a long time, the Nifty found the going quite tough and slipped into the negative zone in mid-morning trade.
While the Sensex, which plunged to 20,696.60 in intra-day trades, ended with a sharp gain of 60.68 points or 0.29% at 20,873.33, the Nifty settled at 6287.85, well off its low of 6221.60, with a gain of 0.14% or 8.75 points. Even as information technology, telecom, oil and select bank stocks held on to their gains, stocks from auto, metal and power sectors turned easy on selling pressure. Buying remained stock specific in realty, FMCG and capital goods sectors.
Midcap and smallcap stocks were hammered down today. So strong was the sell-off in these segments that the Midcap and Smallcap indices went down by 2.82% and 3.28% respectively.
Bharti Airtel (4.05%), HDFC Bank (3.6%), Satyam Computer Services (2.7%), State Bank of India (2.6%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (2.45%) ended with handsome gains. Index heavyweights Reliance Industries (1.2%), Infosys Technologies (1.5%), Reliance Communications (1.8%) and ONGC (1.7%) had an impressive outing as well.
DLF, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Energy and Tata Consultancy Services also finished on a high note with strong gains to their credit. Wipro ended nearly a per cent up. Bajaj Auto managed to post a small gain.
Among the losers, Grasim Industries, Hindalco and Tata Steel eased by 3.25%, 3.75% and 3.65% respectively. ACC, Cipla, Hindustan Unilever, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, Reliance Energy and Tata Motors lost 1% - 2.5%. Ambuja Cements, BHEL and Ranbaxy Laboratories closed lower by 0.5% - 0.75% while ITC ended with a small loss.
Oil stock BPCL closed with a sharp loss of 5.65%. Cairn India, Nalco, Sterlite Industries, Tata Power, SAIL, Zee Entertainment, Unitech, Reliance Petroleum, Hero Honda, Idea Cellular, Punjab National Bank, Sun Pharmaceuticals, VSNL, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Siemens also ended sharply lower today.
Suzlon Energy, the biggest gainer among Nifty stocks, closed stronger by 4.7%. GlaxoSmithKline Pharma moved up by 4.35%. HCL Technologies and GAIL India also ended on a firm note.
Engineers India, Polaris, HDIL, Asian Paints, MphasiS, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare, ICI India, JB Chemicals, IPCA Laboratories, Nestle, Reliance Natural Resources, United Spirits, Tech Mahindra, i-Flex Solutions, Bajaj Hindustan, Karnataka Bank, Sintex Industries, KEI Industries, Balkrishna Industries, EID Parry, Jai Corp, Shaw Wallace, REI Agro, Geojit Financial Services, Karuturi Network, Bajaj Auto Finance and Madhucon Projects were among the prominent gainers today.
Due to heavy selling in midcap and smallcap stocks, the market breadth was very weak today. Out of 2922 stocks traded on BSE, as many as 2369 stocks ended in the negative territory. 541 stocks posted gains and 12 stocks ended at their previous closing levels
Other Sify Stories:
Tax-saving plans: It's not too late to invest
REL to raise Rs 5k cr
SREI Infra to raise $50 m
Simplex bags Rs 481 cr order
Bajaj to launch small car in 2-4 years
Future Money takes lending inside stores
Sarda Energy to install 1,100 MW thermal power plant
Vedanta to invest Rs 50,000 cr in metals, mining, power
Webel-Sl Energy to raise Rs 150 cr
Manaksia lists at 25% premium on BSE
RNRL may buy overseas mines for AP mega project
Reliance Power aims for a global presence
Source: www.sify.com and www.thehindu.com . We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Mumbai (PTI): On hopes of corporates posting good results for the third quarter, the Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex on Tuesday surpassed a new milestone of 21,000 points during the intra-day but ended the day below the peak level in volatile trade amid mixed global cues.
The Sensex hit an all-time trading peak of 21,077.53 points but rolled back to 20,873.33 points, a gain of 60.68 points compared to its Monday's close.
The index fluctuated widely in more than 600 points.
----------------------------------------------------------
Sensex ends 61 pts up
Shaky at higher levels Sensex fails to hold
Nifty tops Sensex with 60% returns in '07
Sensex firms may lead Q3 slowdown
NSE 6287.85 8.75
BSE 20873.33 60.68
Equities, led by heavyweights, opened on a high note this morning thanks to a recovery in global markets. And the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty scaled new peaks in virtually no time.
While the Sensex vaulted past the 21,000 mark for the first ever time and touched a new all-time high of 21,077.53, the Nifty raced past its previous best of 6300.05 to 6357.10. But then, the fall from those levels also happened in a flash. Though the Sensex managed to hang on in the positive territory for a long time, the Nifty found the going quite tough and slipped into the negative zone in mid-morning trade.
While the Sensex, which plunged to 20,696.60 in intra-day trades, ended with a sharp gain of 60.68 points or 0.29% at 20,873.33, the Nifty settled at 6287.85, well off its low of 6221.60, with a gain of 0.14% or 8.75 points. Even as information technology, telecom, oil and select bank stocks held on to their gains, stocks from auto, metal and power sectors turned easy on selling pressure. Buying remained stock specific in realty, FMCG and capital goods sectors.
Midcap and smallcap stocks were hammered down today. So strong was the sell-off in these segments that the Midcap and Smallcap indices went down by 2.82% and 3.28% respectively.
Bharti Airtel (4.05%), HDFC Bank (3.6%), Satyam Computer Services (2.7%), State Bank of India (2.6%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (2.45%) ended with handsome gains. Index heavyweights Reliance Industries (1.2%), Infosys Technologies (1.5%), Reliance Communications (1.8%) and ONGC (1.7%) had an impressive outing as well.
DLF, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Energy and Tata Consultancy Services also finished on a high note with strong gains to their credit. Wipro ended nearly a per cent up. Bajaj Auto managed to post a small gain.
Among the losers, Grasim Industries, Hindalco and Tata Steel eased by 3.25%, 3.75% and 3.65% respectively. ACC, Cipla, Hindustan Unilever, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, Reliance Energy and Tata Motors lost 1% - 2.5%. Ambuja Cements, BHEL and Ranbaxy Laboratories closed lower by 0.5% - 0.75% while ITC ended with a small loss.
Oil stock BPCL closed with a sharp loss of 5.65%. Cairn India, Nalco, Sterlite Industries, Tata Power, SAIL, Zee Entertainment, Unitech, Reliance Petroleum, Hero Honda, Idea Cellular, Punjab National Bank, Sun Pharmaceuticals, VSNL, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Siemens also ended sharply lower today.
Suzlon Energy, the biggest gainer among Nifty stocks, closed stronger by 4.7%. GlaxoSmithKline Pharma moved up by 4.35%. HCL Technologies and GAIL India also ended on a firm note.
Engineers India, Polaris, HDIL, Asian Paints, MphasiS, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare, ICI India, JB Chemicals, IPCA Laboratories, Nestle, Reliance Natural Resources, United Spirits, Tech Mahindra, i-Flex Solutions, Bajaj Hindustan, Karnataka Bank, Sintex Industries, KEI Industries, Balkrishna Industries, EID Parry, Jai Corp, Shaw Wallace, REI Agro, Geojit Financial Services, Karuturi Network, Bajaj Auto Finance and Madhucon Projects were among the prominent gainers today.
Due to heavy selling in midcap and smallcap stocks, the market breadth was very weak today. Out of 2922 stocks traded on BSE, as many as 2369 stocks ended in the negative territory. 541 stocks posted gains and 12 stocks ended at their previous closing levels
Other Sify Stories:
Tax-saving plans: It's not too late to invest
REL to raise Rs 5k cr
SREI Infra to raise $50 m
Simplex bags Rs 481 cr order
Bajaj to launch small car in 2-4 years
Future Money takes lending inside stores
Sarda Energy to install 1,100 MW thermal power plant
Vedanta to invest Rs 50,000 cr in metals, mining, power
Webel-Sl Energy to raise Rs 150 cr
Manaksia lists at 25% premium on BSE
RNRL may buy overseas mines for AP mega project
Reliance Power aims for a global presence
Source: www.sify.com and www.thehindu.com . We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
07 January 2008
ET Top Stories
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
India pips China as better telecom investment destination
Sensex shrugs off global weakness, ends at record high
REL, GMR shortlisted for Singapore power firm
Silverline acquires Canadian firm
Rupee near 10-year high vs dollar
Corporate donations rise 30% in FY07
Will Anil Ambani script a new chapter in stock market history?
Canara Bank expects profit in excess of Rs 1,500 cr
Reliance Power sets sights on govt assets
Suzlon bags order from Spain for supplying 42.5 MW turbine
Marksans Pharma acquires 100% stake in Hale Group
Larsen & Toubro gets order worth over Rs 1300 crore
Parsvnath bags Rs 90 crore order for ashram at Shirdi
Indiabulls to raise $1 billion from international market
Bankers foresee huge demand for Reliance Power IPO
IPOs to take investors' wealth to Rs 100 tn
Andhra Bank to raise Rs 700 crore via debt
Cranes Software acquires US co; to invest Rs 72 crore
Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
India pips China as better telecom investment destination
Sensex shrugs off global weakness, ends at record high
REL, GMR shortlisted for Singapore power firm
Silverline acquires Canadian firm
Rupee near 10-year high vs dollar
Corporate donations rise 30% in FY07
Will Anil Ambani script a new chapter in stock market history?
Canara Bank expects profit in excess of Rs 1,500 cr
Reliance Power sets sights on govt assets
Suzlon bags order from Spain for supplying 42.5 MW turbine
Marksans Pharma acquires 100% stake in Hale Group
Larsen & Toubro gets order worth over Rs 1300 crore
Parsvnath bags Rs 90 crore order for ashram at Shirdi
Indiabulls to raise $1 billion from international market
Bankers foresee huge demand for Reliance Power IPO
IPOs to take investors' wealth to Rs 100 tn
Andhra Bank to raise Rs 700 crore via debt
Cranes Software acquires US co; to invest Rs 72 crore
Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
ICICI Bank to list I-Sec soon: Sources
ICICI Bank to list I-Sec soon: Sources
CNBC-TV18 has learnt from sources that ICICI Bank plans to list its 100% subsidiary ICICI Securities. Sources added that brokerages value I-Sec at Rs 25-45 per share of ICICI Bank.
ICICI Bank is looking at various options on an ongoing basis and said that any decision on subsidiary will be conveyed at the right time.
ICICI Bank called an analyst meet today to brief the analysts about the various subsidies and how they are doing and how their business is, going forward. What we have picked up from reliable sources is that they are looking at listing of its subsidiary, ICICI Securities. It is in the broking space catering to all the verticals including institutional broking, retail broking, as well as investment banking.
Many brokerages have valued this subsidiary of ICICI Bank anywhere between Rs 25 to Rs 45 per share for ICICI Bank. That means a valuation of close to Rs 5,000 crore for ICICI Securities. That could be pretty much on the lower end compared to the other listed brokerages, which have been on fire post listing as well as with the listing of their new companies like Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss and Religare.
So clearly, it makes sense for ICICI Bank to go out and list the subsidiary. An official spokesperson of ICICI Bank said that they are looking at various options, they keep on looking at ongoing options on various subsidiaries and at an appropriate time they may announce something on those lines, but as of now they said that they cannot comment particularly on this ICICI Securities IPO.
We did try to speak to many other market participants as well; there is a buzz that this makes sense for ICICI Bank to do it and there is a possibility that this will be announced soon. Just look at the valuation parameters, Religare, Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss, all are trading at a higher valuations and the market might give very hefty valuations to ICICI securities as well.
CNBC-TV18 Disclaimer:
This information is source-based and has not been provided to the stock-exchanges.
Other IPO Stories:
Manaksia to list on bourses on Jan. 8
Expect to launch "Future" credit card soon: Future Cap
Manaksia to list on January 8
Reliance Power will oversubscribe hopelessly
Quick look at Future Capital Holdings IPO
ICICI Bk plans to list 100% subsidiary I-Sec:
Source: www.moneycontrol.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
CNBC-TV18 has learnt from sources that ICICI Bank plans to list its 100% subsidiary ICICI Securities. Sources added that brokerages value I-Sec at Rs 25-45 per share of ICICI Bank.
ICICI Bank is looking at various options on an ongoing basis and said that any decision on subsidiary will be conveyed at the right time.
ICICI Bank called an analyst meet today to brief the analysts about the various subsidies and how they are doing and how their business is, going forward. What we have picked up from reliable sources is that they are looking at listing of its subsidiary, ICICI Securities. It is in the broking space catering to all the verticals including institutional broking, retail broking, as well as investment banking.
Many brokerages have valued this subsidiary of ICICI Bank anywhere between Rs 25 to Rs 45 per share for ICICI Bank. That means a valuation of close to Rs 5,000 crore for ICICI Securities. That could be pretty much on the lower end compared to the other listed brokerages, which have been on fire post listing as well as with the listing of their new companies like Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss and Religare.
So clearly, it makes sense for ICICI Bank to go out and list the subsidiary. An official spokesperson of ICICI Bank said that they are looking at various options, they keep on looking at ongoing options on various subsidiaries and at an appropriate time they may announce something on those lines, but as of now they said that they cannot comment particularly on this ICICI Securities IPO.
We did try to speak to many other market participants as well; there is a buzz that this makes sense for ICICI Bank to do it and there is a possibility that this will be announced soon. Just look at the valuation parameters, Religare, Motilal Oswal, Edelweiss, all are trading at a higher valuations and the market might give very hefty valuations to ICICI securities as well.
CNBC-TV18 Disclaimer:
This information is source-based and has not been provided to the stock-exchanges.
Other IPO Stories:
Manaksia to list on bourses on Jan. 8
Expect to launch "Future" credit card soon: Future Cap
Manaksia to list on January 8
Reliance Power will oversubscribe hopelessly
Quick look at Future Capital Holdings IPO
ICICI Bk plans to list 100% subsidiary I-Sec:
Source: www.moneycontrol.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Myiris, Moneycontrol.com Updates
Myiris.com
Brokers Outlook: Market likely to touch 22,000 level soon
JSW Steel, steel production rises 20% in Apr-Dec `07
Gitanjali Gems acquires Nakshatra brand from DTC
Accel Frontline inks pact to buy Network Programs
Subprime crises to blow 4 large banks` profits
Silverline Technologies acquires Canada-based OMDR
SEL Manufacturing acquires manufacturing facilities in Ludhiana
India to become USD 1 trillion wealth management market by 2012
Advanta India acquires Unicorn Seeds
Reliance Power may acquire Ratnagiri Gas & Power plant project
JSW Energy plans to raise USD 1 bn via IPO
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moneycontrol.com
Markets may go higher before Budget: Rare Ent
'Friendly Budget' may help mkts: Centrum Cap
NFOs mop up over Rs 8,700 cr in Dec
Not expecting RBI rate cut in Jan: I-Sec
Hyderabad: Hot on the list of PE investors
Indian team protests Bhajji ban
Future Capital IPO to hit markets soon
Citigroup sets 23,950-25,050 as Sensex target for 2008
RPL, ITC, L&T could go up by another 10%: Centrum Broking
Fed may cut rates by 150 bps in '08: StanChart
Source: Above sites. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Brokers Outlook: Market likely to touch 22,000 level soon
JSW Steel, steel production rises 20% in Apr-Dec `07
Gitanjali Gems acquires Nakshatra brand from DTC
Accel Frontline inks pact to buy Network Programs
Subprime crises to blow 4 large banks` profits
Silverline Technologies acquires Canada-based OMDR
SEL Manufacturing acquires manufacturing facilities in Ludhiana
India to become USD 1 trillion wealth management market by 2012
Advanta India acquires Unicorn Seeds
Reliance Power may acquire Ratnagiri Gas & Power plant project
JSW Energy plans to raise USD 1 bn via IPO
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moneycontrol.com
Markets may go higher before Budget: Rare Ent
'Friendly Budget' may help mkts: Centrum Cap
NFOs mop up over Rs 8,700 cr in Dec
Not expecting RBI rate cut in Jan: I-Sec
Hyderabad: Hot on the list of PE investors
Indian team protests Bhajji ban
Future Capital IPO to hit markets soon
Citigroup sets 23,950-25,050 as Sensex target for 2008
RPL, ITC, L&T could go up by another 10%: Centrum Broking
Fed may cut rates by 150 bps in '08: StanChart
Source: Above sites. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Labels:
Moneycontrol.com Updates,
Myiris
Sensex may cross 27,000 in first half of 2008 : Rediff
Sensex may cross 27,000 in first half of 2008
Year 2007 was spectacular for equity investors as a majority of stocks, across all classes and representing different sectors, delivered more than healthy returns.
How will 2008 be? To know what the charts indicate, The Smart Investor gets three technical analysts to predict what's in store for the current year. Neowave analyst Milind Karandikar, stock market consultant and analyst Devangshu Datta and Orpheus Capitals CEO Mukul Pal predict the market in 2008. Read on to know more. . .
1. Milind Karandikar
Year 2007 really turned out to be 'The Year of the Bull' as I had mentioned in my last article on January 8, 2007 in The Smart Investor. I received numerous mails following the article stating that I am trying to fool investors by giving some unrealistic projections of the BSE Sensex (20,000 by December 2007).
But, the Sensex did hit the target and fooled all those who did not trust my Neowave analysis. The stock markets would go where they would like to irrespective of what you and me wish. I am just an interpreter of the patterns they form.
No doubt that my analysis goes wrong on a number of occasions, especially in the short term, but on the longer term charts, the patterns look less confusing and future projections become more reliable. Right now, the pattern formed is suggesting that another huge bull run is impending. The technical analysis of this pattern has been discussed in the Technical outlook paragraph.
Even though year 2007 closed with a bang with the Sensex closing above the 20,000 mark, it was a rollercoaster ride for the indices over the year. The Sensex survived two major falls of over 2,000 points in February and July 2007 and managed to close near the all-time high.
Fundamental issues like crude oil prices, US sub-prime crisis, kept on producing ripples in global markets. Many analysts were worried about overstretched valuations at 14,000 level of the Sensex and continue to be worried at 20,000 level. Some are afraid of a bubble forming but, the markets are not ready to listen. If a bubble is going to form, you and me cannot stop it.
On the contrary, majority would not agree to the existence of such a bubble. The reason being a bubble is called a bubble only after it bursts. Everyone wants the bull markets to prevail for ever. But, since every bull phase is succeeded by a bear phase, one has to be very alert about exiting the market.
Technical outlook
The weekly chart of the Sensex shows that after a huge consolidation period (1992-2003) we are in a big bull run for almost last five years now. This rally is a large X-wave, which I had mentioned in my earlier articles also. A zigzag (A) -- (B) -- (C) pattern is the first part of this up move followed by a connecting pattern (X-wave).
This connecting wave is in the form of a running triangle that began in May 2006 and ended in August 2007. The presence of such a running triangle indicates tremendous upside potential for the Sensex. The calculations based on Neowave theory (By Glenn Neely) suggest that the breakout from such a triangle should be at least 1.618 times the largest leg of the triangle.
This puts the Sensex target at around 27,000 mark. The breakout could be as big as 2.618 times the largest leg, leading to a mind boggling figure of 39,000. Even if we keep aside this over-optimistic view, the target of 27,000 could be achieved and that too most probably in the first half of 2008.
The daily chart shows one directional wave (A) followed by wave (B), which seems to be a diametric pattern. This pattern has seven legs and has a bow-tie shape. This pattern seems to be almost over and the next wave (C) has began. I expect this wave to be again a directional move. Right now one cannot predict which pattern will finally evolve in the entire rally from the bottom of August 2007.
Investment perspective
The diametric formation mentioned in the last paragraph has appeared on most of the indices viz. Sensex, Nifty, BSE-500, S&P CNX 500, etc. Structurally, the patterns in broader market indices like BSE-500 suggest much stronger up move. It means that the chances are high for mid caps and small caps to outperform large caps in this rally.
But, one should choose fundamentally sound stocks from these sectors that have not somehow participated in the earlier rallies of the Sensex. There are always a lot of manipulated stocks from these sectors, which attract public attention and become good traps to lose money.
The sectors that are looking good right now are banking, steel and power generation. But, I personally feel that finally it would turn out to be a broad based rally in which most of the sectors would participate.
Finally, those who are investing fresh money have to be very cautious in selecting the stocks. And for those who are already holding good stocks for long time, my advice is Lage Raho Munnabhai!
(The author is a Neowave analyst)
2. Devangshu Datta
At the end of a 12-month period when the major market indices have returned close to 50 per cent (S&P CNX Nifty 55%, BSE Sensex 47%), and the market is trading at an all-time high, it would take a very brave man to suggest that a bear market is due. On a lot of grounds however, a deep correction or a bear market, call it what you will, is indeed overdue.
On the fundamental level, corporate earnings have seen a slowdown in the second half of 2007-08 and the market is fully-valued or overvalued using standard accounting ratios and growth projections.
At the global level, crude oil is hitting new highs and the US subprime crisis doesn't seem to have played out. There is a US presidential election and closer to home, there's chaos in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. There's also a sequence of state assembly elections and a general election on the agenda.
But technical analysts would say that this is mostly known and hence, the bulk is likely to have been discounted already by price movements. This is not quite true -- the fundamental news is indeed predictable and likely to be discounted.
But traders tend to be optimistic by nature and political uncertainty (including election results as well as events like terrorist attacks) is never factored out until it actually happens.
As things stand, a pure technical analysis would however, suggest that the market is more likely to head up rather than down. As the wise traders say "Never buck the trend" and the market is in a strong uptrend. In the past three months, Indian equities have generated more volume than ever before and despite several selloffs, the major indices seem to have made an upside breakout.
The Nifty has good support immediately below its current levels, in the range of 5,600-6,100. It has a target of about 6,600 in the intermediate term of three-four months and the possibility of moving till 7,000 in the longer-term of six-eight months. Beyond 7,000 and beyond that six-eight month timeframe, it's difficult to make concrete projections. If there are corrections, and there are bound to be, the major market index should bottom out somewhere at the lower end of the 5,600-6,100 range.
The Sensex will behave similarly, but if the pattern of the past year holds, it will register less width in its moves. The current Nifty basket covers the entire Sensex basket with the substitution of Unitech (Nifty) for DLF (Sensex). The correlation is close to 1 and the extra 20 stocks in the Nifty should lend it more upwards momentum.
Breadth has been a feature of this bull market so far. If we look at indices, the CNX Midcap (78%) and BSE Smallcap (87%) have both done better than the main indices. So has the CNX Nifty Junior (74%), which shows that the market has deepened.
Most of the sector indices have done well, underlining the breadth of the rally. The Bank Nifty has lifted 63 per cent and the BSE Oil & Gas index has delivered an astounding 115 per cent on the back of a great performance by Reliance Industries [Get Quote], Reliance Petroleum [Get Quote], Reliance Natural Resources [Get Quote] and Essar Oil [Get Quote]. It's an open question whether this is sustainable since all these counters look over-extended. The one major loser has been IT -- the CNX IT is down 11 per cent and this can be explained by the outperformance of the S&P CNX Defty (72%), which has beaten its rupee twin, the Nifty handily. The strength of the rupee versus the US dollar could continue to affect all exports, not just IT, over this coming year.
Summing up, the first eight months of 2008 should be positive, and there's no technical signals suggesting that the market is due for a major correction. Intermediate corrections should find support and peter out around 5,600 levels. Breadth looks good and relatively smaller stocks could outperform.
Danger signals would be 1) a drastic dip in volumes 2) narrowing in terms of size or breadth -- smaller stocks start underperforming and so do most sectoral indices 3) a correction that drives the Nifty below 5,500 for a period of a several weeks. If none of these occurs, the big bull market will be sustainable.
3. Mukul Pal
Just like 2007, we will see the sectors shift in and out of relative strength. And, as the Sensex keeps growing, its sectoral representation will increase or decrease based on how well the sectors perform. New sector leaders will get in the Sensex and the underperformers will get out.
While a high and higher Sensex might seem good for the economy, it will never convey the real picture early enough to make the most of high performing sector growth or early warning systems to get out of stagnating sectors. This is what we tried addressing last year when we said that energy and materials sector should lead the Sensex higher after the first quarter of 2007. On the energy front, we also mentioned that we do not see oil falling substantially below $50 and after oil hits base, the respective sectors should assume leadership.
I also mentioned about auto and IT underperformance, which happened. There was another aspect I got right, I anticipated a negative trend till March 2007 and a positive year turn around after that. About the things I got wrong�I was off the mark on the banking sector. The BSE Bankex moved up 66% in 2007. The banking sector indeed pushed us off our Sensex targets, which I did not foresee above 18,000.
So as you see, the answer to Indian stock market outlook is trickier than the famously quoted "Sensex 40,000" in five years. I am not saying that it does not challenge us to get the target on Sensex right by two decimals (Elliotticians have done it before), but market forecasting is extremely dynamic and to stick out for a potential turn level in 12 months is not an easy accuracy to deliver.
However, the Sensex targets can be built around sectoral and intermarket dynamics. The late economic cycle stage, which I discussed last time, is followed by topping and slowdown. After Sensex 20,000, the market expectations are for 30,000, but I don't see the Sensex extending beyond 24,000 this year with the benchmark making a decade high this year.
Like I saw the auto, pharma, FMCG and IT stagnating for more than 15 months on average, while the Sensex soared, it's wishful thinking that capital goods and banking will continue to outperform and will not pause if not exhaust.
The Sensex underperformed the capital goods, banking and energy sectors in 2007. And, these are the sectors, which will finally validate our case. Credit cycles are behind the economic boom and even if India is sitting on a huge industrial and construction boom linked with the capital goods sector, credit and real estate are interwoven in the sector.
Prices can't rush ahead of themselves and a rise of energy and material prices will only make it tougher for the capital goods sector to keep delivering, as costs go up. This year, the BSE Capital Goods index should move its last leg up to complete the cycle trend the sector started in 2002. The index should complete the last leg up from current 20,000 levels to 25,000. This should be the first leading indicator after which, identifying a Primary (multi year) top for Sensex should be easy.
And a move on oil above $100 to potential $125 might look interesting to the energy speculators. But, it will subdue the enterprising efforts that some of India's underperforming auto sector majors are making to bring in luxury cars by pitching to buy them from the other struggling global auto majors.
Not to forget to mention the other ill-effects of rising energy prices. So, after the damage will be done by high energy prices in 2008, the BSE Oil index will also head into major resistances accompanied by primary (multi-year) top on oil prices. The banking sector is also an early starter in an economic cycle. The Sensex started moving up in 2001, four years after the uptrend in banking majors. So, if the Sensex has to form a primary top this year, banking should lead.
We are not looking above 15,000 on BSE Bankex index (up 25% from current levels). Bad timing as you may call it, with capital goods and banking under pressure, energy topping late 2008 or early 2009, we will be ready for the proverbial bust heading into 2010 and 2011 Benner cycle lows. Selling in strength isn't easy. I advise to reduce capital goods sector allocations and look at pharma and FMCG majors, which I consider defensive plays and emerging outperformers. About IT, I don't see a reprieve yet, the negative surprises might keep coming.
Utilities and integrated metals and materials companies should continue to fare well. From an Elliott count perspective, the 3 primary of the Impulse from 2001 has witnessed a double retracement. And, the best case scenario expects at least a 3 Primary (multi year) top this year, as the sectors witness the relative shift once again.
(The writer is CEO, Orpheus Capitals, a global alternative research company)
Other Rediff stories:
'India can be services capital of the world'
The power of the penny stock
Ratan Tata on his retirement plans
Source: www.rediff.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
Year 2007 was spectacular for equity investors as a majority of stocks, across all classes and representing different sectors, delivered more than healthy returns.
How will 2008 be? To know what the charts indicate, The Smart Investor gets three technical analysts to predict what's in store for the current year. Neowave analyst Milind Karandikar, stock market consultant and analyst Devangshu Datta and Orpheus Capitals CEO Mukul Pal predict the market in 2008. Read on to know more. . .
1. Milind Karandikar
Year 2007 really turned out to be 'The Year of the Bull' as I had mentioned in my last article on January 8, 2007 in The Smart Investor. I received numerous mails following the article stating that I am trying to fool investors by giving some unrealistic projections of the BSE Sensex (20,000 by December 2007).
But, the Sensex did hit the target and fooled all those who did not trust my Neowave analysis. The stock markets would go where they would like to irrespective of what you and me wish. I am just an interpreter of the patterns they form.
No doubt that my analysis goes wrong on a number of occasions, especially in the short term, but on the longer term charts, the patterns look less confusing and future projections become more reliable. Right now, the pattern formed is suggesting that another huge bull run is impending. The technical analysis of this pattern has been discussed in the Technical outlook paragraph.
Even though year 2007 closed with a bang with the Sensex closing above the 20,000 mark, it was a rollercoaster ride for the indices over the year. The Sensex survived two major falls of over 2,000 points in February and July 2007 and managed to close near the all-time high.
Fundamental issues like crude oil prices, US sub-prime crisis, kept on producing ripples in global markets. Many analysts were worried about overstretched valuations at 14,000 level of the Sensex and continue to be worried at 20,000 level. Some are afraid of a bubble forming but, the markets are not ready to listen. If a bubble is going to form, you and me cannot stop it.
On the contrary, majority would not agree to the existence of such a bubble. The reason being a bubble is called a bubble only after it bursts. Everyone wants the bull markets to prevail for ever. But, since every bull phase is succeeded by a bear phase, one has to be very alert about exiting the market.
Technical outlook
The weekly chart of the Sensex shows that after a huge consolidation period (1992-2003) we are in a big bull run for almost last five years now. This rally is a large X-wave, which I had mentioned in my earlier articles also. A zigzag (A) -- (B) -- (C) pattern is the first part of this up move followed by a connecting pattern (X-wave).
This connecting wave is in the form of a running triangle that began in May 2006 and ended in August 2007. The presence of such a running triangle indicates tremendous upside potential for the Sensex. The calculations based on Neowave theory (By Glenn Neely) suggest that the breakout from such a triangle should be at least 1.618 times the largest leg of the triangle.
This puts the Sensex target at around 27,000 mark. The breakout could be as big as 2.618 times the largest leg, leading to a mind boggling figure of 39,000. Even if we keep aside this over-optimistic view, the target of 27,000 could be achieved and that too most probably in the first half of 2008.
The daily chart shows one directional wave (A) followed by wave (B), which seems to be a diametric pattern. This pattern has seven legs and has a bow-tie shape. This pattern seems to be almost over and the next wave (C) has began. I expect this wave to be again a directional move. Right now one cannot predict which pattern will finally evolve in the entire rally from the bottom of August 2007.
Investment perspective
The diametric formation mentioned in the last paragraph has appeared on most of the indices viz. Sensex, Nifty, BSE-500, S&P CNX 500, etc. Structurally, the patterns in broader market indices like BSE-500 suggest much stronger up move. It means that the chances are high for mid caps and small caps to outperform large caps in this rally.
But, one should choose fundamentally sound stocks from these sectors that have not somehow participated in the earlier rallies of the Sensex. There are always a lot of manipulated stocks from these sectors, which attract public attention and become good traps to lose money.
The sectors that are looking good right now are banking, steel and power generation. But, I personally feel that finally it would turn out to be a broad based rally in which most of the sectors would participate.
Finally, those who are investing fresh money have to be very cautious in selecting the stocks. And for those who are already holding good stocks for long time, my advice is Lage Raho Munnabhai!
(The author is a Neowave analyst)
2. Devangshu Datta
At the end of a 12-month period when the major market indices have returned close to 50 per cent (S&P CNX Nifty 55%, BSE Sensex 47%), and the market is trading at an all-time high, it would take a very brave man to suggest that a bear market is due. On a lot of grounds however, a deep correction or a bear market, call it what you will, is indeed overdue.
On the fundamental level, corporate earnings have seen a slowdown in the second half of 2007-08 and the market is fully-valued or overvalued using standard accounting ratios and growth projections.
At the global level, crude oil is hitting new highs and the US subprime crisis doesn't seem to have played out. There is a US presidential election and closer to home, there's chaos in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. There's also a sequence of state assembly elections and a general election on the agenda.
But technical analysts would say that this is mostly known and hence, the bulk is likely to have been discounted already by price movements. This is not quite true -- the fundamental news is indeed predictable and likely to be discounted.
But traders tend to be optimistic by nature and political uncertainty (including election results as well as events like terrorist attacks) is never factored out until it actually happens.
As things stand, a pure technical analysis would however, suggest that the market is more likely to head up rather than down. As the wise traders say "Never buck the trend" and the market is in a strong uptrend. In the past three months, Indian equities have generated more volume than ever before and despite several selloffs, the major indices seem to have made an upside breakout.
The Nifty has good support immediately below its current levels, in the range of 5,600-6,100. It has a target of about 6,600 in the intermediate term of three-four months and the possibility of moving till 7,000 in the longer-term of six-eight months. Beyond 7,000 and beyond that six-eight month timeframe, it's difficult to make concrete projections. If there are corrections, and there are bound to be, the major market index should bottom out somewhere at the lower end of the 5,600-6,100 range.
The Sensex will behave similarly, but if the pattern of the past year holds, it will register less width in its moves. The current Nifty basket covers the entire Sensex basket with the substitution of Unitech (Nifty) for DLF (Sensex). The correlation is close to 1 and the extra 20 stocks in the Nifty should lend it more upwards momentum.
Breadth has been a feature of this bull market so far. If we look at indices, the CNX Midcap (78%) and BSE Smallcap (87%) have both done better than the main indices. So has the CNX Nifty Junior (74%), which shows that the market has deepened.
Most of the sector indices have done well, underlining the breadth of the rally. The Bank Nifty has lifted 63 per cent and the BSE Oil & Gas index has delivered an astounding 115 per cent on the back of a great performance by Reliance Industries [Get Quote], Reliance Petroleum [Get Quote], Reliance Natural Resources [Get Quote] and Essar Oil [Get Quote]. It's an open question whether this is sustainable since all these counters look over-extended. The one major loser has been IT -- the CNX IT is down 11 per cent and this can be explained by the outperformance of the S&P CNX Defty (72%), which has beaten its rupee twin, the Nifty handily. The strength of the rupee versus the US dollar could continue to affect all exports, not just IT, over this coming year.
Summing up, the first eight months of 2008 should be positive, and there's no technical signals suggesting that the market is due for a major correction. Intermediate corrections should find support and peter out around 5,600 levels. Breadth looks good and relatively smaller stocks could outperform.
Danger signals would be 1) a drastic dip in volumes 2) narrowing in terms of size or breadth -- smaller stocks start underperforming and so do most sectoral indices 3) a correction that drives the Nifty below 5,500 for a period of a several weeks. If none of these occurs, the big bull market will be sustainable.
3. Mukul Pal
Just like 2007, we will see the sectors shift in and out of relative strength. And, as the Sensex keeps growing, its sectoral representation will increase or decrease based on how well the sectors perform. New sector leaders will get in the Sensex and the underperformers will get out.
While a high and higher Sensex might seem good for the economy, it will never convey the real picture early enough to make the most of high performing sector growth or early warning systems to get out of stagnating sectors. This is what we tried addressing last year when we said that energy and materials sector should lead the Sensex higher after the first quarter of 2007. On the energy front, we also mentioned that we do not see oil falling substantially below $50 and after oil hits base, the respective sectors should assume leadership.
I also mentioned about auto and IT underperformance, which happened. There was another aspect I got right, I anticipated a negative trend till March 2007 and a positive year turn around after that. About the things I got wrong�I was off the mark on the banking sector. The BSE Bankex moved up 66% in 2007. The banking sector indeed pushed us off our Sensex targets, which I did not foresee above 18,000.
So as you see, the answer to Indian stock market outlook is trickier than the famously quoted "Sensex 40,000" in five years. I am not saying that it does not challenge us to get the target on Sensex right by two decimals (Elliotticians have done it before), but market forecasting is extremely dynamic and to stick out for a potential turn level in 12 months is not an easy accuracy to deliver.
However, the Sensex targets can be built around sectoral and intermarket dynamics. The late economic cycle stage, which I discussed last time, is followed by topping and slowdown. After Sensex 20,000, the market expectations are for 30,000, but I don't see the Sensex extending beyond 24,000 this year with the benchmark making a decade high this year.
Like I saw the auto, pharma, FMCG and IT stagnating for more than 15 months on average, while the Sensex soared, it's wishful thinking that capital goods and banking will continue to outperform and will not pause if not exhaust.
The Sensex underperformed the capital goods, banking and energy sectors in 2007. And, these are the sectors, which will finally validate our case. Credit cycles are behind the economic boom and even if India is sitting on a huge industrial and construction boom linked with the capital goods sector, credit and real estate are interwoven in the sector.
Prices can't rush ahead of themselves and a rise of energy and material prices will only make it tougher for the capital goods sector to keep delivering, as costs go up. This year, the BSE Capital Goods index should move its last leg up to complete the cycle trend the sector started in 2002. The index should complete the last leg up from current 20,000 levels to 25,000. This should be the first leading indicator after which, identifying a Primary (multi year) top for Sensex should be easy.
And a move on oil above $100 to potential $125 might look interesting to the energy speculators. But, it will subdue the enterprising efforts that some of India's underperforming auto sector majors are making to bring in luxury cars by pitching to buy them from the other struggling global auto majors.
Not to forget to mention the other ill-effects of rising energy prices. So, after the damage will be done by high energy prices in 2008, the BSE Oil index will also head into major resistances accompanied by primary (multi-year) top on oil prices. The banking sector is also an early starter in an economic cycle. The Sensex started moving up in 2001, four years after the uptrend in banking majors. So, if the Sensex has to form a primary top this year, banking should lead.
We are not looking above 15,000 on BSE Bankex index (up 25% from current levels). Bad timing as you may call it, with capital goods and banking under pressure, energy topping late 2008 or early 2009, we will be ready for the proverbial bust heading into 2010 and 2011 Benner cycle lows. Selling in strength isn't easy. I advise to reduce capital goods sector allocations and look at pharma and FMCG majors, which I consider defensive plays and emerging outperformers. About IT, I don't see a reprieve yet, the negative surprises might keep coming.
Utilities and integrated metals and materials companies should continue to fare well. From an Elliott count perspective, the 3 primary of the Impulse from 2001 has witnessed a double retracement. And, the best case scenario expects at least a 3 Primary (multi year) top this year, as the sectors witness the relative shift once again.
(The writer is CEO, Orpheus Capitals, a global alternative research company)
Other Rediff stories:
'India can be services capital of the world'
The power of the penny stock
Ratan Tata on his retirement plans
Source: www.rediff.com. We thank (will be grateful to) the owners of the above articles/sites/sources/Govts for allowing/referring this. We are just providing the link/information of business updates from the leading sources for the benefit of readers. Viewers are strictly advised to take own decision in Stock buying and make verification about the information. Blog is not responsible for any faulty information.
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