Mukesh Ambani is richest Indian

Mukesh Ambani is richest Indian

A rebounding stock market that gained two-thirds in the past year and an economy growing at 6% have boosted the net worth of India’s richest people, according to the latest Forbes’ India Rich List.

The combined net worth of India’s 100 richest people is USD 276 billion, almost a quarter of the country’s GDP.

Last year, there were only 27 billionaires on the India Rich List. This year, the number has almost doubled to 52—two short of what India had at the peak of the stock market boom in 2007.

The head of Reliance Industries, Mukesh Ambani, is once again the wealthiest person in India. His net worth is put at $32 billion, an increase of 54% from nearly USD 21 billion last year.

Trailing behind him are Lakshmi Mittal with a net worth of USD 30 billion, up 46% from USD 20.5 billion, and Mukesh’s estranged brother, Anil, whose net worth of USD 17.5 billion, 40%, higher than before, put him in the third place.

Naazneen Karmali, India Editor of Forbes Asia and Mumbai bureau manager for Forbes magazine, said, “Happy days are definitely back again for India's richest. This year's list shows yet again that when conditions in the financial markets and the economy are right, India has the scale and resources to produce billionaires faster than most of the countries on earth.”

Indrajit Gupta, Editor of Forbes India, said, “The substantial jump in net worth is clear evidence that entrepreneurial capitalism is alive and kicking in India. What’s more, the growth in wealth creation has been broad-based. Entrepreneurs from a wide variety of sectors comprise the list.”

Though the top ten positions remain largely unchanged, there are some shifts in fortunes across the list. Sunil Mittal has moved down from Number 4 to Number 8 and Azim Premji has moved up to Number 4 position. The Ruia brothers with a net worth of USD 13.6 billion have made it to number 5 this year. Adi Godrej has moved out of the top 10 to the number 12 position. Savitri Jindal, Nonexecutive Chairwoman of OP Jindal Group, at a net worth of USD 12 billion this year has made it to number 7 on the list – she is one of only six women on the list.

The richest newcomers are two brothers from Torrent Power -- Sudhir and Samir Mehta, ranked 23 at USD 2.02 billion.

Another notable mention is Nandan Nilekani who has stepped down from Infosys board and is now a part of government. He ranks 43 with a net worth of USD 1.25 billion. Southern India’s TV king, Kalanithi Maran, ranked 20, almost doubled his net worth to USD 2.3 billion from USD 1.2 billion. His Sun TV Network operates in four states in the south, a region that accounts for one-quarter of India’s population and one-third of those with television in their homes. Forbes Asia features a cover story on Maran.

The Forbes India cover story highlights how 2009 has been a turnaround year for the rich in India. The list is an indicator of how India’s billionaires have done better than their counterparts in other parts of the world. The story highlights interesting differences between the rich in India and China. The 100 richest Indians are worth USD 276 billion; their Chinese counterparts have a net worth of USD 170 billion.

The three richest Indians are worth USD 79.5 billion. It takes 24 Chinese billionaires to be worth USD 80 billion.

The top 10 richest in India are:

1. Mukesh Ambani USD 32 billion

2. Lakshmi Mittal USD 30 billion

3. Anil Ambani USD 17.5 billion

4. Azim Premji USD 14.9 billion

5. Shashi and Ravi Ruia USD 13.6 billion

6. KP Singh USD 13.5 billion

7. Savitri Jindal USD 12 billion

8. Sunil Mittal USD 8.2 billion

9. Kumar Birla USD 7.8 billion

10. Gautam Adani USD 6.4 billion

Methodology

Net worths are compiled using stock prices and exchange rates taken on October 16.

Privately held fortunes were valued at book value or by coupling estimates of revenues, profits or book value to prevailing ratios for similar public companies

To compile these rankings, reporters interviewed rich listers, employees, rivals, investors, fund managers, real estate agents and securities analysts. They also sifted through documents and databases to determine value and ownership of assets.

Indian citizenship was required to make it to the list.

Unlike Forbes’ global billionaire rankings, India’s richest ranking includes some family fortunes...
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Technicals, Stock Reports for the Week

Multiple tops suggest short-term correction

In the past three sessions, the market has tested 5,015 and pulled back.

The market made net gains before running into strong resistance. The Nifty closed at 4,998.95 points for a gain of 4.2 per cent while the Sensex was up 4.3 per cent at 16,848 points. The Defty gained 5.1 per cent as the rupee strengthened again.

Both sets of institutional investors were net buyers through the past week. Advances outnumbered declines and volumes were good in both cash and derivatives segment. The BSE 500 rose 3.9 per cent suggesting good retail participation.

Outlook: The market faces massive resistance above 5,000 and it failed to pierce that last week. The pattern suggests short-term bearishness, or range-trading, with the Nifty moving between 4,850-5,050. A breakout in either direction would lead to a move of 150-200 points. The intermediate trend is unclear.

Rationale: In the past three sessions, the market has tested 5,015 and pulled back. Multiple tops have bearish short-term implications. There's solid support down to 4,850 and further down, till 4,700. On the upside, a breakout above 5,050 could push the market to a new 2009 high.

The intermediate trend went negative on October 20, reacting from the peak of 5,181. It bottomed on November 3 at a low of 4,538 and has since moved back to 5,000 levels. The 13.5 per cent pull back is ample in dimensions but the time period of barely two weeks is very short. The current range-trading could breakout in either direction.

Counterview: If the market stays above 4,538 in the next correction, the pattern would be higher lows and positive. A strongly bullish long-term trend has been in force since March and this makes it possible that a 2-3 week correction period is enough. A pattern of higher highs above 5,181 would confirm that the intermediate trend has gone bullish again.

Bulls & bears: The IT sector was surprisingly strong despite the rupee rising to 46.5. The CNXIT jumped 6.1 per cent. A reaction was seen on Friday in Educomp and Satyam but Moser Baer and TCS looked strong. Banks also bounced back with the Bank Nifty up 4.9 per cent.

Metals were another group that did reasonably well with both ferrous and non-ferrous stocks being strongly supported. Sugar continued its bull run with less fancied counters like Dhampur in the limelight.

Real estate continued to look weak though most real estate are sitting near good supports and some may be due for a revival. Many PSUs such as Neyveli Lignite Corporation, NMDC, SCI and GAIL saw volume expansions and price increases. Two depressed cyclical sectors - automobiles and shipping - also saw selective buying interest.

MICRO TECHNICALS

IDFC
Current Price: Rs 171.25
Target Price: Rs 180

The stock has made a breakout to a new high on increased volumes. On the basis of the chart pattern, it has a target projection of around Rs 180-185. There's no price history in this zone so error margins are more. Keep a trailing stop at Rs 165 and go long. Move the stop up 5 points for every Rs 5 rise.

IVRCL
Current Price: Rs 410.5
Target Price: Rs 430

The stock has made an upside breakout on high volumes and it is testing resistance close to its 2009 highs. It has the potential to cross Rs 430 and create a new high if the volume pattern is maintained. Keep a stop between Rs 400-405 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 420.

PARSVNATH DEVELOPERS
Current Price: Rs 116.75
Target Price: Rs 100

The stock has made a recovery from a recent low of Rs 92. However, it is now running into high resistance. It could react again and go into a range-trading pattern between support at Rs 100 and resistance at Rs 120. Keep a stop at Rs 120 and go short. Increase the position below Rs 112 and clear the position below Rs 102.

SAIL
Current Price: Rs 182.3
Target Price: Rs 195

The stock has made a small breakout past resistance at Rs 180. It could test the 2009 highs of Rs 195-197 at least on intra-day basis since there is little resistance in-between. Keep a stop at Rs 180 and go long. Start covering the position above Rs 193.

SHIPPING CORPORATION
Current Price: Rs 145.9
Target Price: Rs 170

The stock is testing resistance at Rs 150 and if it closes above that mark, a target of Rs 170 is possible. Keep a trailing stop at Rs 140 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 150 and move the stop loss up to Rs 145. At Rs 160, book 50 per cent profit and move the stop loss to Rs 155.

Early signs of a recovery

Riding on the rally

Markets at a glance

Analysts' corner

High carryover in range-bound market

Gold rallies as dollar falls

	Wkly Tech Analysis: Resistance seen around 16,940
-	Kirloskar Bros raises stake in four firms
-	Shoppers Stop gets board's nod for raising funds
-	Nifty may hit new high this week
-	Resistance seen around 16,940

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Top 5 Picks |

Mid-term Picks |

Staying above 4900 level crucial for Nifty

No clear direction on stock indices seen this week

Check out the top 10 capital goods stocks

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Weekly Newsletter - Nov 16 2009

GSPL, Dish TV, India Economy

ONGC

DLF Limited

Mahindra Ugine

Src: Economictimes, Business-Standard, Deadpresident Blog

Nifty may rebound from 4900

Nifty may rebound from 4900

he Nifty was under pressure on Thursday, as it failed to move past the previous day’s high. Even as the Nifty lost about 1%, November futures closed with a small premium to the underlying index, while the stocks futures added 1.2 crore shares in the open interest, indicating that the decline was a result of liquidation. One interesting development, as on Thursday’s close, is that the near-to-medium term daily DMAs are spread across a breadth of 4900-4912.

While such a convergence points to a strong support at that level, the future crossover between these averages will be crucial for determining the market direction in the near future. At this juncture, however, two scenarios look possible. First, if a positive crossover happens between 5-DMA with both 20- and 50-DMA respectively, it could give a bullish push to the Nifty.

However, if a negative crossover between the 20- and 50-DMA emerges, it could intensify the downward pressure on the Nifty. However, a rebound from 4900 looks more likely, given that the November 4900 puts have gained close to 35 lakh shares in open interest in the past four trading sessions.

STOCKS F & O

ITC is trapped in a range of Rs 241-265 since mid-October. The downside is supported by a trendline joining the stock’s lows since June 2009. Post its decline on Thursday, the stock has closed below both its 10- and 20-DMA, which are near 255. As long as the upside remains capped around Rs 255-260, the stock can move back to Rs 240.


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Top five Picks

Mid-term Picks

What to watch out for

Infosys eyes US insurance market with $38 mn buy

• Nifty to cross 5300 soon: Anil Manghnani
• 'Investment should be stock specific not index specific'
• Buy and hold Welspun Gujarat with stoploss of Rs 275: Nirmal Bang

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Src: Economictimes.Indiatimes.com

September IIP up 9.1 per cent year/year: Government

September IIP up 9.1 per cent year/year: Government

EW DELHI: Industrial output rose at a faster-than-expected 9.1 per cent in September from a year earlier, data showed on Top 10 challenges for India Thursday. The median forecast in a media poll was for an annual rise of 7.3 per cent. Manufacturing production rose 9.3 per cent in September from a year earlier. August's annual industrial growth rate was revised up to 11 per cent from 10.4 per cent previously. Industrial output rose 2.6 percent in the 2008/09 fiscal year (April-March), down from 8.5 per cent in 2007/08. The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 2 basis points after industrial data came in better than market expectations. The yield on the 10-year benchmark bond rose to 7.36 per cent from 7.34 per cent before the data. At 12:11 pm it was trading at 7.35 per cent. It closed at 7.33 per cent on Wednesday.

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Other Stories:

• FDI inflows dip to $1.5 bn in Sept
• Export shrinks slower at 11.4%
• Indirect tax collections drop 13% to Rs 25,495 cr in Oct
• Strong IIP data adds to stimulus debate
• Food price index rises 13.68 pct year/year October 31

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Sept IIP up 9.1%; Experts cheer data but differ on upgrades

he Index of Industrial Productivity for September is up 9.1% as compared to 11% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year. A CNBC-TV18 poll had seen it up 7.14% as against 10.4%.

The August IIP number has been revised to 11% as against the provisional number of 10.4%. Industrial growth in the April-September period grew by 6.5% as against 5% YoY. Also see: Markets volatile, recovers post IIP data

Consumer durables and capital goods were the key contributors to the upmove.

IIP movement in 2009	Numbers
April	1.1%
May	2.1%
June	8.2%
July	7.2%
August	11%
September	9.1%
Sectoral Growth	September	August
Manufacturing	9.3%	10.2%
Minning & Quarrying	8.6%	12.9%
Electricity	7.9%	10.6%
Use Based	September	August
Basic Goods	6.7%	10%
Intermediate Goods	10.8%	14.3%
Capital Goods	12.8%	8.3%
Consumer Goods	8.2%	8.5%
Durables	22.2%	22.3%
Non-Durables	2.6%	3.7%

CNBC-TV18’s Banking Editor Latha Venkatesh says these numbers are for a pre-Diwali month. “One may want to revise their figures and wait for the October number to check out whether the demand pool has remained even after the Diwali de-stocking and re-stocking. That might be something which analysts will want to weight before they work out their final numbers.”

So, will economists plan to upwardly revise most of their IIP numbers? Yes, says Samiran Chakrabarty, Standard Chartered Bank’s Head of Research. “If one looks at the last three months, on an average we are clocking numbers which are even better than what we did in the peak of industrial boom.”

But Sachchidanand Shukla, Chief Economist, Enam, is convinced yet. "We are seeing continuing traction in consumer durables because of the government dole outs or the sixth pay commission. We have a favourable base till December. We also need to see what happens to the basic and intermediate goods, which constitutes about 60% of the index. With export numbers now moving up, the contraction is now getting narrower. By January, we should turn positive on the export side. So, we will have to wait for the next two months to revise our numbers upwards. We believe the second half is going to be more than 9%."

GDP forecast for FY10:

Chakrabarty maintains the 6.4% GDP number for FY10. "Going forward, we will probably look at revising it after this industrial growth numbers." Enam, Shukla says, is looking at a 6.3% number. But he won't revise the figure upwards till December.

Is a rate hike on the cards?

Shukla sees the Reserve Bank hiking the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by December and cites three triggers to bolster his case. "One, if prices don't come off till December. Second, the base will boost the IIP numbers till December. If that trend continues, it will be another trigger. Third, will be capital flows which keep gushing into the economy. If all these three parameters are positive, the RBI will have to react on the liquidity front by a CRR hike by December. But for policy rates they will have to wait and watch till March."

No, says Chakrabarty. "I don't see it happening in December. This is very odd year in which year-on-year comparisons should be kept aside. This is not a year to look at those numbers. This is a year to look at softer issues in the economy, not just the domestic economy but also at a global sense to figure out whether this recovery that we are seeing is on a sound footing or not. The exit of monetary stimulus should take into account all those softer issues also – not just headline numbers – before taking a final decision. I think the RBI would probably wait a while to exit from an interest rate sense. From a liquidity sense, the exit could come much earlier."

Src: EconomicTimes, Moneycontrol.com

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 12.11.2009

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 12.11.2009

This(Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls) will be a New Initiative of this blog to Publish Blog Author's Own Investment/Trading Calls for Short-Medium Term perspective. But All these Calls are not given on Purely Technical perspective. Most of these Calls are given by Blog Author from His past Investment/Trading experiences. So Do not expect More depth in Calls. Author has tried his best to give some calls for the benefit of Investors/Traders from his experience and from some media/web/news based call. So author request all the investors/traders to take/try these Calls as RISK CALLS. And Keep Strict Stop Loss Own (or) Keep Resi,Supp levels As Stop Loss for their Trading(or) Trade/Invest @ your Own Financial Risk. All type of Comments are Welcome about this New Initiative. Dont Forget to Keep Stop Loss and Again Author Remembering you that he is giving calls only from his past trading experience...


Nifty Future cmp 5009

Nifty Future Resi @ 5039-5050-5076 levels... Supports at 4970-4957-4927.. Today IIP data... CNBC estimates around 7.14%... Inflation Data (Monthly) today...


MSCI India Index Rejig:

HDIL, SUZLON to replace Glenmark, Powergrid from Nov 30th or Dec 1st... Positive for Suzlon, HDIL in near term...


Neyveli Lignite cmp 156

Stock has surpassed key resi levels 135-140 and closed above that after a long time... If this holds then could see a target of 172-180 levels soon.. Keep Own Stoploss..


Kajaria Ceramics cmp 41

(Outside sources)

Buy For Longterm investments... Sources said that this company has done some pact with GAIL..... Supports at 35-30 levels...


Allied Digital (ADSL): cmp 248

Buy this Stock for Long term Investment.... Accumulate part by part...



RCF cmp 78

Every time stock bounces from 65-68 levels.... So if this holds, then stock may move to 85-90 levels.. Keep Strict StopLoss at 68....


Educomp cmp 782

CLSA has assigned downside target around Rs 580 levels.... But other Brokerages has assigned upperside target around 860-900 levels.. Lets watch this stock which target first to happen...



Keep Strict StopLoss in Trades (Or) Keep Own StopLoss (Or) Keep Given Resi, Supp as StopLoss for trading....


By


Srisai...

Heard on the Street - ET

Heard on the Street

Engineers India rides high on bonus issue buzz
The stock of Engineers India has gained over 24% in the past week on the BSE. The scrip ended over 2% higher at close on Wednesday at Rs 1,428.25. Brokers say the stock is being driven by speculation that the company may announce a bonus issue of shares shortly. The other key trigger has been the announcement last week by the government that it planned to sell stakes in profit-making public sector undertakings.

Analysts point out that Engineers India was among the few companies unaffected by the slowdown in 2008. Even as the company’s earnings grew 61% in FY09, there was a steady increase in new orders. Engineers India is well-entrenched in high-end project consulting, which provides the company an edge when it comes to bidding for hydrocarbon, metal and infrastructure projects.

IPO issuers ready to eat humble pie
The dismal performance of some of the recent initial public offerings seems to be prompting some of the prospective issuers to be a bit more “generous” when it comes to pricing their issues. For instance, last month, a mid-sized Mumbai-based realty firm announced that it was looking to raise around
Rs 1,500 crore through an IPO. Market buzz is that the projected figure has been shrinking over the past couple of weeks. Last heard, the company will raise around Rs 1,100 crore.

BSE gets ready to launch its derivatives offering
The Bombay Stock Exchange, which is also Asia’s oldest stock exchange, is likely to launch a derivative product next month. Unlike the existing derivative products, which expire on the last Thursday of every month, the expiry of this derivative product will in the middle of the month. “The trade cycle will expire on the second Thursday of every month as against the current practice of expiry on the last Thursday of the month,” said an official privy to the development. He did not disclose further details about the product.

According to the official, the exchange has received market regulator Sebi’s approval for the product’s launch. The move is aimed at boosting the fortunes of BSE’s sagging derivatives segment, which has not been able to compete with rival NSE’s derivatives segment. Trading in BSE’s derivatives segment has been non-existent, while the daily total turnover on NSE is usually around Rs 70,000-80,000 crore. NSE’s dominance in the equity derivatives segment has been a cause of concern for the market regulators.

Contributed by Deeptha Rajkumar, Santosh Nair and Reena Zachariah

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Top 5 picks of the day | Mid-term picks

RIL readying $25bn for global acquisitions: Sources

Which stocks are IDFC SSKI's betting on this year?

Ganeshaspeaks: Market prediction for Nov 12



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Src:Economictimes.Indiatimes.com, Moneycontrol.com

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 11.11.2009

Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls for Dt: 11.11.2009

This(Srisai's Instinct Stock Calls) will be a New Initiative of this blog to Publish Blog Author's Own Investment/Trading Calls for Short-Medium Term perspective. But All these Calls are not given on Purely Technical perspective. Most of these Calls are given by Blog Author from His past Investment/Trading experiences. So Do not expect More depth in Calls. Author has tried his best to give some calls for the benefit of Investors/Traders from his experience and from some media/web/news based call. So author request all the investors/traders to take/try these Calls as RISK CALLS. And Keep Strict Stop Loss Own (or) Keep Resi,Supp levels As Stop Loss for their Trading(or) Trade/Invest @ your Own Financial Risk. All type of Comments are Welcome about this New Initiative. Dont Forget to Keep Stop Loss and Again Author Remembering you that he is giving calls only from his past trading experience...


Nifty Future cmp 4874

Nifty 20 DMA is at 4925... NFut has to cross 4930-4957 and holds for atleast two days for Further uptrend... otherwise NF will get weak... Support at 4873-4849-4820.... Be cautious... Tomorrow IIP data announcement....


TajGVk cmp 152

Stock has support at 128-131 levels.... As long as this level holds, then could see target upto 180-190 levels.... Buy For short-term investment with 131 as Strict StopLoss.


Orchid chem cmp 169

Buy the Stock above 177 tgt 190-208 levels with 167 as Strict StopLoss.


RIL (From News source)

Reliance INdustries weightage to crease 2% from today after RIL-RPL merger...



By

Srisai

Heard on the Street - ET

Heard on the Street

Bears move in for the kill on Bharti counter
The tug of war at the Bharti Airtel counter continues. Just when it seemed that the stock was recovering lost ground, the bears have struck again. The stock was the among the biggest losers in Tuesday’s volatile session, shedding over 4% to close at Rs 293. Near-term outlook on the sector is bearish because of the ongoing tariff war.

But bears have not been able to make a killing so far. Most fund managers have an exposure to the stock, and talk is that they have been supporting the price at lower levels. Traders see Rs 280 as a key support for the stock, as it was the lowest level touched during the market meltdown in October-November last year. Bears will be looking to push the stock below this level so as to trigger technical-based selling pressure at the counter.

KSK Energy hops on to the QIP bandwagon
Even as the near-term outlook on the equity market remains uncertain, the qualified institutional placement (QIP) bandwagon continues to roll on. The latest company to raise funds through this route is KSK Energy Ventures. The indicative price band for the issue is Rs 194.50-196, and the company hopes to mop up around $125 million. KSK shares on Tuesday closed at Rs 198.60, up 0.2% over the previous close.

Market fails to warm up to interest rate futures
Despite interest rate futures having been made accessible to a wider base of participants in its new avatar, the segment is yet to generate excitement among market participants. The buzz is that most of the players, mutual funds and financial institutions are waiting for the first round of settlement of contracts.

The main concern is about the physical delivery and the fact that it’s a 30-day delivery period. Industry participants say the product in itself needs to be tweaked to make it more ‘user friendly’.

Spinning a yarn to make a pile
An investor-cum-operator, who runs an investment company named after an ocean, is believed to be active again in his favourites — Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren and Gokul Refoils. The operator, who has been booked by Sebi on various counts of front-running and circular trading, and his friends have been spreading rumours about both the companies securing large orders from overseas clients, market sources said.

Grapevine has it that the operator and his friends ramp up stock prices, while floating rumours, and dump the stock after it reaches a specific price target. Shares of Welspun ended 0.7% lower at Rs 275.25 on Tuesday while Gokul Refoils closed 1.5% higher at Rs 56.80 on the BSE.

Contributed by Santosh Nair, Deeptha Rajkumar & Shailesh Menon

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Nifty may find it tough to breach 4900-mark
11 Nov 2009, 0230 hrs IST, Devangi Joshi

The Nifty appears to be facing a tough time crossing the 4900-mark. The resistance at 4900 is highlighted by an addition of 12 lakh shares.

Mid-term picks | Views/Recommendations



Src: Economictimes.Indiatimes.com

Sensex may drift down to 12500, -ve on RIL: Shankar Sharma

Sensex may drift down to 12500, -ve on RIL: Shankar Sharma

Shankar Sharma, Vice-Chairman and Joint Managing Director, First Global, says the Sensex can drift down to 12,000-12,500. He feels the next 3-4 months would to be challenging for equities. "We are looking at a 20% fall in global markets, so India would sell off more if they fall."

Shankar advises investors to stay away from high beta stocks. He is negative on Reliance Industries.

Below is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Shankar Sharma on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

elated News Resistance for Nifty at 4,940-4970: An analysisSEBI cuts minimum market cap for follow-on offerings China outlook helps boost emerging mkt stocks Also Read See what other experts are saying about markets See what FIIs are saying about the markets See what Udayan Mukherjee is saying about the markets RSS feed for news Click here

Q: It looked like global markets were getting ready for a deep correction last week, and then suddenly things have turned around and the S&P has gone right back to 1,100 again. Do you think the correction is over?

A: No. In fact, when the correction happened, I was of the view that we would get another bounce. Call it a sucker rally or whatever but I was personally of the view that we would see about 16,700–16,800 on the Sensex and US markets would probably go back to their highs or close to their highs. I think the Nasdaq 100 did get back to its highs yesterday.

What is interesting is that the emerging markets are still reasonably far away, good 2% on the aggregate from their highs whilst the US markets have made their highs. That is an interesting disconnect because usually emerging markets should have made their highs a lot earlier than the US markets ought to have but that has not happened this time.

Even today the follow through from the emerging markets (EMs) is far less vigorous than what one would have imagined given the size of the move yesterday on the US markets. Even yesterday, EMs were not that robust except the European and the Latin American end. But Asia was by and large quite tepid, and even today, I don’t see much sort of vigour in the move.

So that is beginning to, at least, surface a slight disconnect between what is happening on the EM side versus what is happening on the US equity side. My sense is that EMs will begin to lag significantly and that usually happens when markets fall rather than when markets rally because it is hard to imagine that EMs won’t participate in any big rally in global equity markets from hereon. So if EMs lag, that is usually a precursor to sell-offs rather than big rallies globally. My sense, therefore, is that over the next month or so, you are going to start seeing the reversal of what began in March this year and the next three–four–six months could be extremely challenging for equity markets globally be it India or be it the rest of the world.

Q: We are at that Sensex level you just talked about. So what seems the more likely move from here that we get into a trading range or that this market corrects faster than the others?

A: If markets do sell off India will sell off a lot more and my view is that markets globally will sell off rather than rally. They could do 1–2% here or there that’s fine but by and large I would on the side of the trade that I will wait for a chance to get shorts in rather than big longs round here globally.

If markets do well, which I think they will, India will sell off a lot more than that. I am looking at about 20% fall in global equities from hereon. India being typically at the high beta end of the market will probably fall a tad more than that and so will the other high beta emerging markets like Russia or Latin America.

Q: You are saying a 25% correction in the index in India is likely which would take it back to again that 12,500 kind of zone?

A: That wouldn’t surprise me in the least, absolutely not. I would definitely hold that view over the next six months that you could go all the way back to 12,000–12,500 and who knows as we always know overshoots happen on either side of the market. So on a bad day you could slide down 500 points even from there. Definitely, I do not think the upsides are there incrementally. You get a blast last rally, which could take you 200 points higher, that’s fine, that’s for a quick trader but not for any serious investor, definitely not.

Q: You would be very surprised if the year end saw a big move up for the markets because the counter argument is that liquidity is still comfortable and there may almost be a scramble to get something done by the end of the year by way of a performance?

A: These theories are very bad except that usually when they work, we say the theory works but there are enough number of times when they don’t work. Statistically, I am not a big believer in these easy, cozy theories because markets are all about destroying, precisely, those kind of theories.

If you think about the correction that happened in the last fifteen-twenty days globally, there was no apparent reason why it should have happened. That is the interesting bid that it was accompanied by pretty much good news globally. If you would look at the US gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, they were quite strong.

South Korea did blowout numbers on their GDP end. By and large, there was nothing that merited a sudden sharp fall of the kind that we saw. That makes you begin to think that is the market reading something which the headlines are not highlighting just yet? Go back to March when the rally started, there was still bad news. It continued for a good month to a month and a half, it was only around late May or June that you started to see real sequential growth coming in. However, I do remember the headlines in late March or mid-April and I was saying that the fundamentals have still not turned. The fact is that they did turn sequentially but it took a good two and a half months.

So sometimes market moves without reasons, you need to probably think a lot deeper that what is the market’s inner mind telling you. So my sense is it could well be that the market is beginning to read that in the next three–six months’ time, this whole easy liquidity and low interest rate and low inflation theory, which has made this move happen could go out the window because now you are going to see the ill-effect of a low inflation base this year begin to creep up from Q1 of 2010 and then again sequentially earnings may not be as strong as there has been because we were coming out of an absolute trough. So maybe the market’s mind is beginning to read those things that sequentially issues––be it on inflation or on rates or on earnings––may not be as robust as is necessary to propel this market higher.

Q: There has been a lot of talk about the dollar carry trade and how that’s fuelled asset prices and whether it will reverse in the next few months. What are your thoughts on the dollar and whether that might pan out?

A: When the dollar falls then you have a big rally in global equities, and particularly, in emerging markets. But I was looking at history and I was not able to find that this is a perfectly correlated situation and I am a big believer in that theory and I belong to the camp that the dollar has to strengthen for markets to fall and it could well do so.

However, there have been reasonable periods and even in the last three years in which it was counter to the conventional theory that the dollar actually strengthen while markets went up as well. So it is not always that this theory holds. My broad view is that the dollar might strengthen a tad but I do not see huge strengthening move. It may well be that the relationship may not hold in that. If the dollar actually does not strengthen what that does is, and let us say on the other hand it weakens, what that will probably do is it might push inflation argument back to the fore. Therefore, rates will follow in the whole reversal of the cycle. That is not going to be good news for the market. So the global economy is still very fragile and the last thing any country can afford is a resurgence of inflation.

Therefore, no economy in the world, that I can think of, can afford a move to tighten rates just now. Therefore, if the dollar actually weakens and rates begin to harden then you may see equity prices begin to tumble because the dollar is weakening rather than the relationship that the dollar weakens and because of that you end up having rallies in equity markets. So maybe this relationship is due for a break because all of us have become too cozy even in assuming that this is a way the trade actually works out.

Q: What do you think about this whole Reliance settlement issue, do you think it is likely? What is your own position in First Global on the Reliance stock?

A: We have been negative on Reliance Industries for quite a while now. I see no reason to change that view. These occasional spikes keep happening as there is hopeful talk that the settlement might be reached and I am not an insider on that trade for me to know whether there will be or not.

What I am more interested is knowing how the Supreme Court (SC) will interpret all the complexities around this and how will a court of law get into very detailed analysis of a business problem because typically courts are into issues of law rather than get into what is the cost of producing gas and stuff like that which even we analysts cannot figure out. So let us see how the SC takes this but I am no insider in this.

Q: What has gone a bit back of mind now is Q2’s performance by way of earnings, there were a lot of chinks over there. The only redeemed feature seemed to be the margin performance which as well maybe up for question in the next couple of quarters, what would your own earnings outlook be?

A: In light of what we have seen, it has been basically one big pack and that has been the auto pack that has truly been good. It has been outstanding in terms of numbers on an aggregate basis. Other than that, you are searching hard to justify a lot of their valuations, you are searching hard to see how incremental earnings growth will come through, if you look at the whole fund raising pie chart from the lows of March, it has gone to companies––infrastructure and realty pack––which have been at the poorest end of the market as far as business fundamental are concerned.

They have to my mind whatever little good news was there by way of their earning sequentially or whichever way you want to cut it, they just want to say that this is the only chance, let us put some numbers together, show the market that we are in good shape, let us get some capital and then we will figure out how to rework the numbers once you got money. It has been a little bit of a logic and reverse. However, companies that have not needed capital within that pack have been only the auto pack. So that has really gladdened the hearts but other than that the earnings picture was pretty relative to where the market is.

At 8,000 same earnings picture would have looked very different but at 17,000 where the markets were, this earnings number or these aggregate numbers are not going to take you to the highs. That has been my general view that the highs while tantalizingly close are unlikely to get reached or breached anytime soon even though for a brief moments, there have been moments that I doubt that is it really going to get there in November or December, etc. but on an aggregate basis, my view by and large has been that we would get a huge bear market rally which we got but it wouldn’t take us pass the highs simply because of the internals of the market by way of their marketcap weightages, hard to see which ones will take the markets higher because autos still don’t constitute much and that is the only area I feel comfortable about.

Q: What do you do with high beta now? Do you short that, do you stay away from it? How would you position yourself in that trade?

A: I never short anything at all, not in India anyway.

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Src: Moneycontrol.com
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Src: Moneycontrol, Economictimes