S&P upgrades India to 'stable'
MUMBAI: GLOBAL credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s on Thursday revised the outlook on India to `stable’ from `negative’ due to
improved government finances—a move that could marginally lower the borrowing cost of India Inc and support equities.
The decision not only dispelled fears of an immediate downgrade, but also revived hopes that India’s fiscal position could now begin to recover. The agency, which identified inflation as the only downside, also affirmed the ‘BBB-’ long-term and ‘A-3’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on India. Ratings below `BBB-’ are non-investment grade.
Bond prices rose soon after the announcement, but slipped after RBI deputy governor KC Chakrabarty indicated that the central bank may hike interest rates before the April policy “if it is inevitable and the price situation warrants”.
The outlook revision follows the government’s decision to prune subsidies. “The decision to change the fertiliser policy to implement a nutrient-based pricing policy and to raise urea prices by 10% from April 2010 is a step forward for the reduction of subsidies. The budget also announced an average increase in the prices of domestic petroleum and diesel of 6% and 7.8%, respectively,” S&P said.
“The move is largely in line with expectations... We expect to see further positive rating action over the near term,” says V Srikanth, managing director & head of markets, Citi South Asia.
The immediate beneficiaries would be local lenders like Axis Bank, ICICI, Bank of India and Bank of Baroda, which are planning to raise $2 billion overseas and large corporate groups such as Essar planning to raise foreign currency debt. “The borrowing cost should improve by around 5 bps. Many Indian corporates are expected to hit the market in two to three months. There is also a pipeline of Indian issuers in the international market from the financial world and this rating improvement should help the pipeline get executed in the near term, “ said Munish R Varma, MD and head-global markets, Deutsche Bank India.
Last February, S&P had revised India’s rating outlook to negative after the government over-stretched its finances to introduce a fiscal stimulus prop up the economy.
On Friday, S&P credit analyst Takahira Ogawa said, "We expect India's GDP growth to be 8% in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011, which is higher than that of many other countries and exceeds our previous expectations.” In addition, Standard & Poor's views India's external position as resilient. "We expect the country's ratio of gross external financing need to current account receipts plus international reserves to remain stable at 77% in fiscal 2010."
The Union budget targets a general government (including central and state governments) deficit of 8.3% in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2011, from 9.8% in the previous fiscal year. Besides, the government has indicated that it intends to follow the medium-term fiscal consolidation plan outlined by the 13th Finance Commission. The commission recommended that the general government deficit be reduced to 5.4% of GDP, and the ratio of general government debt to GDP be lowered to 68% of GDP by the fiscal year ending 2015.
However, the ratings continue to be constrained by the high government debt burden and deficit, and India's weak fiscal profile. The consolidated debt of India's central and state (general) governments is estimated at 80% of GDP (by our definition) in the current fiscal year while interest payments are likely to consume about 27% of general government revenues.
"In our opinion, the recent high inflation rate could also derail the stable macroeconomic and interest rate environments," said Mr Ogawa. S&P has said an upgrade would depend on the government's ability to reduce the public sector's deficits materially. Conversely, if the government continues its loose fiscal policy or there are policy setbacks on monetary, financial and economic fronts that lower India's medium-term growth prospects, it could result in a downward pressure on the ratings.
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Dollar carry trade may trigger market rallyPre-Market: Stocks seen ranged; be cautious while taking fresh positionsTop 5 picksHeard on the Street: FIs, HNIs lap up JSW Steel on steel price hike comfortFIs, HNIs lap up JSW Steel on steel price hike comfort Institutions and high net worth individuals (HNIs) have been accumulating JSW Steel shares over the past few days on expectations that the company could benefit from a hike in steel prices shortly. On Thursday, the stock closed at Rs 1,248.10, up 2% over the previous close after touching a 52-week high of Rs 1,251.80 intra-day.
According to analysts, since Chinese exporters have increased offer prices of re-rolling grade by $20 per tonne to $630, Indian steelmakers are expected to follow suit. However, it’s not clear whether these prices are sustainable due to additional capacities coming on stream. The steel industry in India is considered to be the world’s second-fastest growing market after China.
Investors flock to Bharat Elect on bonus issue hopes Shares of Bharat Electronics have been in the thick of activity, of late. Traders are speculating that the company will use its cash reserves to announce a bonus share issue. A bonus share issue will increase liquidity in the stock, which tends to be choppy because of its low free-float.
According to institutional dealers, some domestic mutual funds have been paring their holdings in the stock in the past few weeks, while foreign institutions have absorbed this supply. Stock backers expect the company to be a key beneficiary of higher investments towards defence equipment. The stock closed at Rs 2,100, down marginally over the previous close.
UK bank’s MF arm seen looking to exit India AMC biz The mutual fund industry is abuzz with yet another round of asset sale. This time, it is the mutual fund arm of a UK-headquartered bank. According to sources, ‘King Kong Bank Asset Management’ is scouting for a buyer. The foreign fund house has been looking to exit asset management business in India over the past few years.
It had approached several prospective buyers during the bull-run in 2007. Apart from ‘King Kong Bank Asset Management’, there are rumours of Orange Lion Mutual Fund also wanting to sell its Indian fund assets. Low investor turnout and increasing distribution expenses are said to be the main reasons for these asset management companies exiting mutual fund business.
HNIs turn to Apollo Hospital as they see a rerating Shares of Apollo Hospital Enterprises are being accumulated by high net worth investors (HNIs) betting on a re-rating of the healthcare services industry. The stock has been inching up over the past couple of months, and closed at Rs 716.50 on Thursday, up 1.2% over the previous couple. Dealers tracking the stock say it is cheaper when compared to Fortis Healthcare, which has seen a sharp upswing in the past one month. However, institutional investors are not yet taking the bait. Apollo Healthcare has been a laggard for some years now and fund managers gripe that the management has done little to improve investor perception.
(Contributed by Apurv Gupta, Shailesh Menon & Santosh Nair)
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Src: ET and DP blog etc
Outlook: The short-term trend is impossible to read and we will just have to wait for a breakout outside 5,050-5,150. Any such breakout is likely to be accompanied by volume expansion and likely to lead to a move of 100-150 points in the direction of break. The intermediate trend appears to be bullish and so is the long-term trend.