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Two attractive mid cap stocks Sanjay Chhabria

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Uneasy lies the market
The Greek tragedy continued to cast its pall of gloom over financial markets last week. Stock prices across the globe crumbled on Tuesday on S&P downgrading Greek sovereign debt rating to junk status. Indian equities were relatively ...

STOCKS: Cadila Healthcare: Buy
Investors with a long-term perspective can consider taking exposure to the stock of ...

STOCKS: GlaxoSmithKline Pharma: Hold
Shareholders with a two-three-year investment horizon can retain their exposure to the stock of GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (GSK Pharma). A strong first quarter performance, planned launches from the company's product pipeline and the parent GSK ...

IPOS: Jaypee Infratech — IPO: Invest at cut-off
Investors with a penchant for risk can consider the initial public offer of infrastructure developer, Jaypee Infratech, a subsidiary of the listed Jaiprakash Associates. A unique combination of infrastructure and real-estate development, ...

IPOS: Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam — IPO: Invest at cut-off
Investors with a long-term horizon can subscribe to the initial public offering from the hydro power generation company, Satluj Jal Vidyut ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals
RIL moved in line with our expectation, reversing lower from the intra-week peak of Rs 1,092 to achieve our short-term target of Rs 1,025. A short-term down-trend is currently in progress from the April 7 peak. Third wave of this move has ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner: RNRL trading above critical support
I am holding Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) purchased at Rs 85. Please advise the long and medium-term outlook for this company. Rahul Gupta, Kumbesh, C. Mohandass, ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling Stocks: Cholamandalam DBS Finance (Rs 125.3)
Cholamandalam DBS Finance began the week on a relatively sedate note at Rs 101. The fireworks came much later, on Thursday when the stock closed 16 per cent higher. The rally continued on Friday to take the stock to the intra-week peak of ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Consider shorting Apollo Tyres, Bharti Airtel
Apollo Tyres (Rs 70): After hitting its all-time high at Rs 82.5 in April earlier, the stock has been witnessing a steady decline in price. The stock faces major support at Rs 47 and resistance at Rs 76. Only a close above Rs 76 would change ...


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India Telecom 3G Update

Biocon

India Cements

Mahindra Holidays and Resorts

CESC

IDFC Ltd

Jaypee Infratech IPO Review

IDBI

Polaris Software

Canara Bank

Firstsource Solutions

Bharat Electronics

Madhucon Projects

Ashok Leyland

Everest Industries

Exide Industries Limited

Src: Economictimes, Businessline, DP blog and Valuenotes etc

2200 firms may go MNC way by 2024: PwC

2,200 firms may go MNC way by 2024: PwC


EW DELHI: India may overtake China as the largest source of new MNCs from the emerging markets, with over 2,200 domestic firms forecast to open overseas operations over the next 15 years, says a PricewaterhouseCoopers report.

According to the report titled the Emerging Multinationals, the competitive landscape is set to be transformed over the next decade as Indian and Chinese multinationals lead the way in seeking new markets outside their home markets.

"India is expected to produce the most new multinational companies, overtaking China as the emerging world's largest source of new multinationals. Over 2,200 domestic companies are projected to open operations outside over the next 15 years (between 2010 and 2024)," the report says.

Driven by the rapid pace of globalisation and revolution in information and communications technologies, the number of companies from the emerging markets choosing to set up operations abroad has increased in the past five years.

The report suggests this trend is expected to continue over the next 15 years, as new multinationals from emerging economies rise in prominence on the global economic stage.

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"It is encouraging to know that India will replace China as the largest source of new MNCs in the emerging world from 2018 onwards. The key drivers for this are the relative increase in both investment intensity as well as openness that the domestic economy offers," PwC India leader for markets and industries Jairaj Purandare said.

India and China would also be joined by an array of companies from Singapore, Russia, Malaysia and South Korea in terms of setting up MNCs.

According to the report, some of these new MNCs would become international powerhouses and would require services all over the world; for example, to support their IT and telecom networks.

PwC report says more and more new MNS are moving straight into the developed economies as opposed to setting up their first foreign operation in a neighbouring emerging market.

The global consultancy major used econometric techniques to project the number of new multinationals arising from a sample of 15 emerging economies over the next 15 years.

The countries analysed are --Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Hungary, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Ukraine and Vietnam.

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As Greece falters, fears stretch around the world

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NSE revises lot sizes of F&O scrips w.e.f. Apr 30

NSE revises lot sizes of F&O scrips with effect from April 30, 2010.

SEBI had advised exchange to standardize lot size for derivative contracts on individual securities once in every 6 months as per circular no. SEBI/DNPD/Cir- 50/2010 dated January 8, 2010. In pursuance to the revised methodology mentioned in the SEBI circular, NSE proposed to carry out revision of market lot for derivatives contracts.

For full list of revised lot sizes, click here...

Src: ET and Moneycontrol

Ripple effect on D-St as EU crisis spreads

Ripple effect on D-St as EU crisis spreads


contagion seems to be spreading fast across Europe. Ratings major Standard & Poor’s (S&P) on Wednesday cut its ratings on Spain by one notch to AA from AA-plus.

Earlier in the day, Indian shares joined the worldwide slide in equities and commodities, after S&P had lowered Greece’s debt rating to junk and that of Portugal by two notches on Tuesday.

Brokers and fund managers said the outlook on India’s economy and corporate earnings remained upbeat, notwithstanding the latest upheavals in Europe. But the flow of foreign money into the stock markets could be affected as global investors booked profits in emerging markets like India, to offset losses in other parts of the world, they said.

“The developments in Europe are unlikely to hurt the earnings potential of Indian companies, but investors may question the price-to-earning multiple of (Indian) equities,” said Kenneth Andrade, head-investments, IDFC SSKI Asset Management.

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Indian shares are trading 16-17 times estimated earnings for the current financial year, and most investment managers say they are neither cheap nor too expensive.

BSE’s 30-share Sensex shed 310.54 points, or 1.8%, to close at 17,380.08. The 50-share Nifty crashed 92.90 points to close at 5,215.45. Key markets in Asia ended 1-2% down, and European markets too declined 1-2%.

“While valuations in India are not too stretched, in the immediate term, we remain anxious about the global risk trade unwinding,” said Keshav Sanghi, MD and head of equities, Citigroup Global Markets, India. Bond prices moved up a little and traders expect that the 10-year government paper to be auctioned on Friday will have a yield of below 8%.

Provisional data on the stock exchanges showed foreign funds were not heavy sellers even as many second-line shares fell sharply. Overseas investors net sold Rs 131 crore of shares while domestic institutions bought Rs 324 crore of shares on a net basis. So far in 2010, foreign funds have net bought $6 billion of Indian shares.

Market players expect more volatility on Thursday because of the expiry of derivatives contracts. If the downtrend persists, many traders holding long positions may choose not to carry them forward.

“Emerging markets in Asia have not yet seen a knock-on contagion impact on account of Greece and Portugal and retraced less than Brazil or Mexico today,” Mr Sanghi said. “I believe that there are quite a few macro international variables that still need resolution and the market is in a wait-and-watch mode near term,” Mr Sanghi added.

In the global markets, yields on Greek two-year debt soared to a record 26% and the euro hovered around near a one-year low against the dollar as investors worried that the sovereign debt crisis in parts of Europe may soon spread to markets as well.

Shares of metal, oil and gas, and realty companies were the worst affected, with the respective sectoral indices on BSE falling 2-3%. Shares of FMCG and healthcare companies closed flat to slightly lower, as investors moved a part of their money to defensive stocks.

“The problems of Greece do not have any direct implications for India,” said Vikram Kotak, chief investment officer, Birla Sun Life Insurance.

“But the big worry is a series of bad news—interest rate hike, inflation, high valuations, spate of share offerings—hitting all at once. We see the Sensex moving in a range of 14,000-18,000 over the next few months. But at the moment, a correction appears more likely,” said Mr Kotak.

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RNRL gains on hopes of early SC verdict in gas case | Citi downgrades RIL

RNRL gains on hopes of early SC verdict in gas case | Citi downgrades RIL


Shares of Anil Ambani owned Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) and Reliance Power gained momentum after media reports that the Supreme Court may announce verdict in RIL-RNRL gas dispute case in a week’s time.

It has been reported that the Chief Justice of India KG Balakrishnan, who is leading the 3-member Supreme Court bench on the gas dispute case, will retire on May 11.

At 10:35 am, shares of RNRL were at Rs 66.70, up 7.06 per cent or Rs 4.40 on the BSE. It touched a high of Rs 67.85 and low of Rs 61.50.

Reliance Power was up 1.30 per cent or Rs 2.05 at Rs 159.95. It touched a high of Rs 161.65 and low of Rs 155.20.

Meanwhile, share of Reliance Industries continued its downtrend after disappointing quarterly results. The scrip was down 2.26 per cent at Rs 1037.25 on the NSE.

RIL and RNRL has been fighting a legal battle over the supply of 28 million units of gas for 17 years at $2.34 per unit to RNRL from the gas fields of Krishna-Godavari basin, which had been awarded to Mukesh Ambani’s RIL as part of the New Exploration or Licensing Policy (NELP).

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Reliance Industries discovers more oil in Cambay basin



MUMBAI: Energy major Reliance Industries has discovered more oil on India's western coast, raising the potential of the exploratory blocks it has been drilling, the company said on Wednesday.

India's biggest conglomerate whose businesses span petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration and retail said the current flow was at 300 barrels of oil per day (bopd) at the onland exploratory block in the Cambay basin in Gujarat state.

The potential commercial interest of the discovery is being evaluated through more data gathering and analysis, it said in a statement. "The discovery is significant as this play fairway is expected to open more oil pool areas leading to better hydrocarbon potential within the block," it said.

Reliance holds 100 per cent participating interest in the block, and three earlier discoveries had a flow rate of 500 bopd. The company has so far drilled 14 exploratory wells in the block that covers an area of 635 square kilometres.

Last year Reliance, controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, started pumping gas from its block in the vast Krishna Godavari (KG) basin off India's east coast, where it made the country's largest gas find. It has been producing 60 million standard cubic metres a day (mmscmd) of gas from the block.

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At peak output of 80 million mmscmd it could nearly double India's gas output. Reliance also produces oil from its D6 block in the KG basin, and holds a stake in the Panna, Mukta and Tapti oil and gas fields off India's west coast.

The company, which owns the world's largest refining complex in Gujarat, earlier this month agreed to pay $1.7 billion to form a joint venture with Atlas Energy at one of the most promising natural gas deposit regions in the United States.

At 0745 GMT, shares in Reliance shares, which has a market value of $78 billion, were trading down 2.6 per cent at 1,033.80 rupees in a Mumbai market down 0.85 per cent.

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Markets nosedive as Greece concerns loom




Src:Economictimes.indiatimes

Global mkts in a tizzy as S&P junks Greece

Global mkts in a tizzy as S&P junks Greece


MUMBAI: Stocks, bonds, crude oil and commodities tumbled as investors feared a wave of sovereign debt crisis, similar to the 1997 Asian crisis, after Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s rating to junk and lowered Portugal two notches. Safe haven gold rose.

Investors fear the downgrade of these two nations may be the beginning of a series of such moves as most governments are burdened with debt after they spent their way out of recession following the credit crisis. Even the US is under threat of losing its top rating.

“The biggest risk now is that the market speculates against every single indebted peripheral country, and that could lead to a sovereign debt crisis,” Axel Botte, a strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris, told Bloomberg News. “The contagion risk is real. It’s much easier to bail out a bank than to bail out a country.”


The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 3.1% in New York, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.6%, crude oil sank 2.4%, while copper plunged 4.3%. ADRs of ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank crashed. Gold rose 0.7%, or $8, to $1161.57 an ounce.

Standard & Poor’s cut Greece three levels to BB+, or junk, and lowered Portugal two steps to A- as they stare at a default. Greek notes slid earlier as concern deepened that the nation will ask investors to accept delayed or reduced debt payments.

The European Union, which had pledged to support Greece, has been dragging its feet on the conditionalities to extend a bailout. Emerging markets could be the worst-hit in a sovereign crisis as global investors pull out funds in a flight to safety.

Global investors could sell developing market stocks and bonds, and buy US treasuries or German bonds which are considered the safest. The cost of borrowing for both companies and countries are set to rise.

“We could see another wave of forced deleveraging, which could obviously affect any high-yielding assets, including emerging-markets debt,” Luis Costa, an emerging markets strategist at Citigroup, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.

The average spread for emerging-market bonds over the US treasury climbed 18 basis points to 261 basis points, the largest increase since February.

A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.7% and Brazil’s Bovespa index tumbled 2.4%. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 2.1% earlier to a six-month low, the most since February 5.

“We’re entering a phase of blind panic,” said Orlando Green, an interest-rate strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in London. “Given the inaction of the euro nations to back Greece and to get things done quickly, we’ve found now this inaction has been a big obstacle. That’s not satisfying for the markets, and not for S&P either; hence, the downgrade.”



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Src: ET and Moneycontrol and DP blog etc

Reliance Q4 Results

Reliance Q4 net rises; refining margins drag

Energy major Reliance Industries posted a 30% rise in quarterly profit but lagged estimates as lower-than-expected refining margins offset gains from higher gas output off India's east coast.

India's largest listed conglomerate, controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, has been scouting for acquisitions overseas, and progress on that front will determine its outlook.

"We continue to seek growth opportunities within India and globally to accelerate further value creation," Ambani said in a statement.

Reliance, with interests in petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration, and retail, posted January-March net profit of Rs 4710 crore (USD 1.1 billion) versus Rs 3630 crore a year earlier.

The year-ago results were restated to include figures from Reliance Petroleum, which it absorbed last year.

A Reuters poll had forecast quarterly net profit of Rs 5190 crore.

Margins at Reliance's flagship refining business stood at USD 7.5 a barrel for the quarter, but lagged market estimates of USD 8.3 a barrel. Analysts expect margins to rise as the global economy recovers.

The company recently said it would pay USD 1.7 billion to form a joint venture with Atlas Energy at one of the most promising natural gas deposit regions in the United States.

The outcome of a long-running gas dispute with Reliance Natural, led by Mukesh's younger brother Anil, will also have a bearing on the company's outlook.

Reliance is unable to hit peak gas production of 80 million standard cubic metres a day (mmscmd) at its D6 block in the vast Krishna Godavari basin in the Bay of Bengal due to customers not buying allocated volumes, and a lack of pipelines.

But analysts say current production of 60 mmscmd is still enough to boost results. Reliance began pumping gas from the block in April last year.

Shares in Reliance, India's biggest listed firm with a market value of about USD 78 billion, have dropped 8% in the past two weeks, while the broader Mumbai market is down 2.6%.

RIL Q4 nos disappoints street, but experts are not worried


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Src: Moneycontrol.com

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Buy Stocks Of Blue Chip Companies At Discounted Price

Buy Stocks Of Blue Chip Companies At Discounted Price

If you were given a special “offer” of a 30 per cent discount on all Tata group shares relative to their current market prices, would you take it? How? Here's the article from The Hindu Business Line explaining how you can get blue chip stocks at discount!

Well, it is exactly such opportunities that you get to capture when you buy the holding or investment arms of India's key business groups. Take Bajaj Holdings and UB Holdings, the holding companies of the Bajaj and UB groups. They hold investment books which are worth Rs 16,000 crore and Rs 5,500 crore respectively at today's market prices. Yet the stocks sport market capitalisations that are at a steep discount to this value, at Rs 6,500 crore and Rs 1,800 crore respectively.

These are not odd cases, there seem to be many more instances where the holding or investment companies of business groups are trading at a steep discount to the real value of their investment book (the Net Asset Value, NAV).

As the Indian market continues to tread higher, investors are finding it harder to spot undervalued bets in the market.

The enormity of information available has also led to most of the undervalued stocks getting re-rated. However, one pocket of stocks which continue to trade at a steep discount to their intrinsic value are investment andholding companies of major business groups. In addition, there are also other companies (such as Ramco Industries and Aditya Birla Nuvo) with large investment books (quoted) which supplement their core business.

Business Line's analysis of these companies indicates that the companies trade at a steep discount to their NAV (ranging from 35per cent to 80 per cent). They have also underperformed (in some cases delivered negative returns) the broader market index over the last four years.

From the investment data in the balance-sheets of listed companies, around 27 companies' market capitalisation is less than their respectiveinvestment book value. Of which, 14 companies are mainly holding and investment companies whereas others (such as Rajapalayam Mills and Binani Industries) also operate separate standalone businesses. The assumption is that these companies have not made material changes to their investment holdings since March 2009.

The stock market prices of holding and investment companies are all at a discount to the underlying value of investments they hold — with stock prices amounting to 20-65 per cent of their quoted investment book per share.

If unquoted investments are taken into account, the discount would widen in many cases.

Assuming that the companies have not liquidated their stakes since March 31, 2009, JSW Holding and Tata Investment Corporation are trading closest to their NAV, at a discount of 8 per cent and 24 per cent to their respective quoted portfolios. On the other hand, Williamson Magor (with major investments in Mcleod Russel, McNally Bharat and Eveready Industries) and Nagreeka Capital (with investments in Sterlite Industries) are trading at less than one-fifth of theirinvestment book . Stocks such as UB Holdings and Nalwa Sons are trading at almost half their investment values. The discount seems to be wider for smaller rather than largerholding companies.

The implied discount may be even higher in some cases as the holding and investment companies may have cross-holdings.

For instance, JSW Holdings, apart from the steel portfolio, also has investments in Nalwa Sons, which is already at a discount to its own investment book.

Bajaj Holdings and Maharashtra Scooters have stakes in each other, in addition to investment in Bajaj Group stocks. Where there are multipleholding companies within a group, investors may find the one at a steeper discount a better bet. For instance, between Nalwa Sons and JSW Holdings, the discount in Nalwa Sons is higher as compared to JSW Holdings making it better value. Same is the case with McDowell Holding which is trading at a higher discount to its fair value compared to UB Holdings.

Gaining favour
Though the investment companies are available at an attractive discount, their long term stock performance hasn't been very encouraging. Over the last four years as the broader market index BSE 500 gave a 13per cent annual return, quite a few holding companies and investment companies have given negative returns. JSW Holdings, Nalwa Sons and HB portfolios were exceptions with an annual return of 75 per cent, 27 per cent, and 14 per cent respectively.

However, the market does seem to be turning its attention to these companies. Some investment companies do seem to have gained market favour, delivering higher than market return (BSE 500) in the last one year.

For instance, UB Holdings and Maharashtra Scooters gained 260 per cent and 350 per cent respectively as against the 100 per cent return of BSE 500 index.

Good performance of the underlying stocks has been reflected in the stock price gains of Nalwa Sons and JSW Holdings which hold all the listed companies of the JSW group. HB Portfolio too has gained as it holds JP Associates, a high beta stock.

Analysis also shows that historically the discount on the holding companies narrowed more during periods of market correction (underlying companies' stocks falling) rather than during market highs. That is the underlying stocks have usually outperformed in a rising market and fallen more in a bearish market.

For instance, Nalwa Sons and Jindal South West Holdings saw their stocks trading at a premium to their underlying NAV of the stocks during the period January-March 2009, when JSW Steel, Jindal Stainless and Jindal Saw touched their multi-year lows. Why the discount?

Holding or investment companies may be a good way for investors to buy blue-chips at a discount.

However, not all of them may be good investment bets due to the discount factor alone. Here is what investors should watch out for while considering them:

For the holding company to be a good “buy” the underlying stocks should be worth investing in, the prospects of the underlying businesses should figure prominently in the investment decision.

Holding companies are similar to the perpetual close-ended mutual funds which have never paid dividends. Their stocks trade at a discount because the value of the investments is essentially on paper.

It is the promise of value unlocking that can really serve as a trigger for the discount to narrow. This can happen through periodic liquidation of holdings or a delisting of the company itself.

Even the dividends paid out by the holding companies are highly correlated to dividend received in turn from their holdings.

Concentration is another risk the investors have to bear in mind. Investing in a holding arm of a group means holding a number of companies from the same business group from different sectors.

For instance, by holding Tata Investment Corp an investor will end up tracking the whole Tata group portfolio.

However, given the choice investors may not want to bet on all the businesses at the same time. Same is the case with other holding companies too.
Source: The Hindu Business Line


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