Stock Picks - HDFCsec

Technical Picks – Stocks



Weekly Market, Sectoral and Stock Perspective – Technicals


Weekly Technical Report

Market Guide

Stock Exchanges – BSE and NSE There are two national stock exchanges in the country, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Most large brokers hold membership cards in both exchanges, offe...

Types Of Market Transactions You will find it easier to transact in the stock market once you attain a basic understanding of market mechanics. Before a share is purchased or sold, the investor must instruct his broker ...

Settlement Once you have bought or sold shares, the transaction is complete only when you have got the shares you purchased, or received money for the shares you sold. This is called settlement in stoc...

Auctions An auction is resorted to when there is a default in delivery by a broker. An auction is the exchange’s mechanism through which, in a settlement, a buyer broker gets shares in the eventualit...

Investor Protection Measures In the modern world, stock markets have evolved as important drivers of national economy. Fair and clear-cut rules and regulations are enforced by governing bodies to ensure safety of all pa..

Src: HDFCSEC

Fuel price hike may be big drag on Dalal Street

Fuel price hike may be big drag on Dalal Street

MUMBAI: Domestic shares may be under pressure early this week on fears that the government’s decision to hike fuel prices will boost inflation. Investors are concerned that a further rise in prices could prompt the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to take stronger steps in monetary policy to combat inflation. Shares of automakers are likely to be subdued on concerns that higher fuel prices could dent demand for vehicles. Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) such as HPCL, BPCL and IOC and explorers, including ONGC, could rise. “We may see these stocks (oil) going higher in the next few days because they had been lacklustre for a very long time,” said Ambareesh Baliga, vice-president, Karvy Stock Broking. He added that auto stocks should be avoided, as they will see some profit-booking, after a good rally in the past few weeks. Though the move to raise oil and gas prices is expected to improve the government’s finances in the long run, a section of the market is concerned about the timing of the increase, as inflation is still high. Also Read → ONGC, IOC could hit market soon with FPO → How to make exit decisions in volatile market → Private oil companies to go full throttle with expansion Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), rose to 10.16% in May. A silver lining for the stock market would be the better-than-expected progress in the monsoon, which is likely to bring down food prices. “A good monsoon will take care of food inflation and will boost the agricultural sector, which is one of the key constituents of economic growth,” said Mr Baliga. Mid-cap shares are likely to see more activity than their frontline peers, if futures and options data are any indication. “There have been aggressive rollovers in the mid-cap space. So, they will witness an increase in trading activity in the days to come,” said Bhavin Desai, manager-derivatives, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Analysts said the drop in volumes in the futures segment, despite a strong rollover to the July series, suggests investors have become more risk-averse. Global investors will closely watch the outcome of the G-20 meeting over the weekend. On Friday, overseas markets ended weak on concerns that the decision by European governments to cut down on spending and increase taxes could delay global recovery.

Greek crisis, inflation and rate hike may impact India's economic growth
28 Jun 2010, 0539 hrs IST

Pace of India's economic growth depends on growth in global economy and its impact on Indian economy through trade linkages.

UTI Leadership Equity a highly conservative equity scheme
28 Jun 2010, 0537 hrs IST, Bakul Chugan Tongia

UTI Leadership Equity’s extremely conservative play has led the fund to miss out on some of the brilliant opportunities.

Financial planning can limit the impact of job loss
28 Jun 2010, 0537 hrs IST, Amrit Mathur

Loss of employment is a difficult period for salaried individuals and their families, but suitable financial planning can limit the impact.

Technofab an attractive bet for investors
28 Jun 2010, 0536 hrs IST, Shikha Sharma

Technofab seems to be an attractive bet for investors considering its strong order book and superior EBITDA margins.

Bull's eye: Sintex Industries, Bank of India, Dish TV, Gruh Finance, HDFC Bank
28 Jun 2010, 0535 hrs IST

JP Morgan initiates coverage on Sintex Industries with an `Overweight’ rating and a target price of Rs 435.

Long-term investors can consider Parenteral Drug
28 Jun 2010, 0534 hrs IST, Jwalit Vyas

Given its growth prospects, Parenteral Drug’s stock looks reasonably priced at the current levels. Long-term investors can consider the stock.

Some upside still left in Ess Dee Aluminium
28 Jun 2010, 0533 hrs IST, Abhineet Singh

Given the pace of growth in the organised packaging industry, there can still be some upside left for Ess Dee Aluminium's stock.

Cairn India lucrative for long-term investors
28 Jun 2010, 0530 hrs IST, Ramkrishna Kashelkar

With the commissioning of its pipeline, Cairn India’s profits are set to soar in FY11. Its growing resource base and focussed efforts on E&P make it lucrative for long-term investors.

Deregulation of prices a relief to oil industry
28 Jun 2010, 0529 hrs IST, Ramkrishna Kashelkar

The government’s move to deregulate oil prices may give a sigh of relief to the debt-burdened industry. Investors of oil companies are also likely to benefit from this as they will be rewarded with good dividends in future.

GTL - Reliance Communication - Relinace Infratel merger details

Pidilite Industries

Weekly Outlook - June 27 2010

Src: ET and DP blog and etc

Stock Views

Trading in Futures

Click to read more...

Reliance Comm, GTL Infra sign $11 billion deal

Heard on Street: Funds line up for OMCs

Mid & small-cap cos outdo blue-chip firms

INSIGHT: Take a fresh look at defensive stocks
Investors usually look to defensive stocks to protect their portfolios from damage during market falls. However, defensive sectors such as FMCG and healthcare have actually proved good bets in a rising market as well. Had you picked some of ...

INSIGHT: How the revised Direct Taxes Code affects FIIs
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) play a significant role in the Indian equity market, both as long-term investors and as short-term traders. It is therefore not surprising that the Revised Discussion Paper on the Direct Taxes Code ...

INCOME TAX: Impact of Direct Taxes Code on individuals
Direct Taxes Code (DTC) is proposed to replace the Income-Tax Act from April 1, 2011, with the objective of simplification of tax structure and align it with the ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Bears on the prowl again
The bear-squeeze did not happen. Instead, the bears wrested control from the bulls before the Sensex could slip past them to a new yearly high. Resurfacing concerns regarding the pace of global economic recovery provided bears with the ...

STOCKS: Reliance Power: Sell
Investors can consider reducing exposure to the stock of Reliance Power, given that the recent gains in the stock have placed it at a stiff valuation relative to peers in the sector. The stock is trading at a 38 per cent discount to its ...

RIGHTS ISSUE: Suzlon Energy — Rights issue: Avoid
Shareholders can refrain from applying to the rights offer made by Suzlon Energy, as the additional capital from the rights is unlikely to be earnings-accretive in the medium-term. The offer's primary objective is to discharge certain ...

IPOS: Technofab Engineering – IPO: Invest at cut-off
Those with a high risk appetite can consider investing in the initial public offer of small-sized Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) services player, Technofab Engineering, with a two-year perspective. Strong growth in revenues ...

STOCKS: ARSS Infrastructure and Projects: Book Profits
Investors can consider booking profits in the stock of ARSS Infrastructure and Projects, a construction contractor in the infrastructure space. At Rs 1,177, the stock is valued at 20 times the trailing 12-month earnings. Peers such as ...

STOCKS: NHPC: Buy
INVESTMENT FOCUS. Investors with a three-year horizon can consider buying the stock of NHPC, the largest ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling Stocks
GTL Infrastructure turned red hot last week on the buzz that Reliance Infratel might merge its tower operation with this company. Market is finding it hard to leave ‘Reliance' out of the thick of action. The stock shot to the high of ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Strategy: Consider bear put strategy on Nifty
Though the markets witnessed healthy rollovers in the derivatives segment this time around, it seems to have been tilted more towards short positions. This may exert a downward pressure on the index in the near-term. Rollover was also at ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Shorting GE Shipping may pay-off
GE Shipping (Rs 296): After registering its 52-week high at Rs 345, the stock has been in downward spiral. The outlook for the stock remains negative as long as it stays below Rs 333. It, however, finds an immediate support at Rs 286, a ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals
RIL moved in line with our expectation, reversing lower in the initial part of the week to achieve the short-term target of Rs 1,050. Friday's bounce however helped the stock erase all the losses and it closed the week 1 per cent ...

STOCKS: Query corner: United Phosphorus on course to a life-time high
What is the medium- and long-term outlook for United Phosphorus purchased at Rs 168?

R-Infratel, GTL approve Rs 50,000-cr deal

Wkly Tech Analysis: 5,260 is the pivot point for Nifty

Src: HDFCSec, ET and Businessline and etc

Check out Top Value Style Mutual Fund Schemes

Check out Top Value Style Mutual Fund Schemes

Stocks with strong fundamentals and better growth prospects are likely to gain whereas those with weaker fundamentals and poor earnings visibility might face the wrath of investors.

In this scenario, 'stock picking' should emerge as the key differentiator between out-performance and underperformance. The ability of a fund manager to pick winners among stocks will determine the 'alpha' that he is going to produce which will ultimately determine the out-performance and/or underperformance of the scheme.

By definition, value style funds are meant to be better 'stock pickers'. Value investing, as a process, involves better understanding of a company's business and ascertaining its intrinsic value through rigorous research and then looking for an opportunity to buy that stock at a price lower than its intrinsic value. Value investors are not momentum players. They pick stocks that are trading at a considerable discount to their intrinsic value, thereby enhancing the margin of safety.

Value investing has 2 important benefits

▪ Looks to invest in stocks which are trading at a discount to their fair value, it gives margin of safety to the portfolio of the investors over a long term.

▪ It may also help in reducing volatility in the portfolio.

Here, we present an article on Top Value style funds. (See Note and Disclaimer)

Data Source: valueresearchonline



UTI Dividend Yield Fund

The fund in last 1 year has generated an annualized return of 45.58% as on 18th June 2010.

Performance Analysis

The fund has consistently given an above average performance and has also out-performed its benchmark BSE-100 in the periods 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years and 5 years registering an annualised return of 21.17% in last 2 years while in the same period the category average returns is 17.50% and its benchmark has given 6.85% return.

Table I below shows the growth of Rs100000, if invested in UTI Dividend Yield Fund on 18th June 2007.

Return 3 Years
Absolute %	Annualised %
70.33	19.42
Amount Inv 18-Jun-07	Current Corpus 18-Jun-10
100000	170327

Risk Return Analysis

The fund has registered a Sharpe Ratio of 0.53 while the category average is 0.38 which shows the fund's capacity to generate above average returns. It also has a standard deviation of 30.81% which is lower than the category average of 34.62% and has a beta of only 0.83 which shows that it is a low risk and less volatile fund when compared to its peer group. See Table II

Scheme Name	Sharpe	Std Dev	Beta
UTI Dividend Yield	0.53	30.81	0.83
Category Average	0.38	34.62	0.92

It is low risk and low volatile fund coupled with a capacity to generate above average returns. For definition of Sharpe ratio, Standard Deviation and Beta see bottom of the page.

Portfolio Analysis

The fund as per May 2010 has 89.21% exposure to equity in the form of 54 stocks in its portfolio, 1.45% in Debt in the form of short term deposits and holds 9.34% of the portfolio in cash. The fund has diversified its equity portfolio by investing 67.82% in Large Cap stocks, 22.73% in mid cap stocks and 8.87% in small cap stocks.

Its Top 5 stocks include Infosys Technologies Ltd.(6.12%), ICICI Bank Ltd. (4.80%), NTPC Ltd. (4.75%), ONGC Ltd. (4.30%), GAIL (India) Ltd (3.97%).

More @ Check out Top Value Style Mutual Fund Schemes



Src: Economictimes.Indiatimes Via Valueresearchonline

ET:Heard on Street

Heard on Street: Indian Hotels gains 3%

SBI ropes in six i-banks for $1 billion overseas debt

State Bank of India plans to raise $1 billion from overseas markets in July and has identified six merchant bankers for it. Insiders say that it’s not yet clear if the bank plans to raise money in the form of bonds or by issuing medium-term notes. The six merchant bankers include UBS, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC. Insiders say that the bank is likely to raise money for five years and the issue will be in the form of senior debt and not subordinated debt. This will be SBI’s first overseas borrowing this year, after the turmoil in European markets. Many Indian banks are following SBI’s overseas borrowing, since they will plan their overseas borrowing based on the pricing and the response that SBI receives for its forthcoming issue.

Indian Hotels gains 3% as ‘operators’ buy shares

Having taken losses on their trading bets due to the recent market volatility, market operators now seem to have turned to the tried and tested formula of investing blue-chips. The Old Fox of Dalal Street, and the operator who shares his first name with the Union Agriculture minister, are said to be accumulating shares of HLL, ITC and Indian Hotels over the past few sessions. Indian Hotels shares rose 3% to close at Rs 104.80. On the BSE, 5.41 lakh shares were traded, compared to the two-week average daily volume of 1.75 lakh shares.

Domestic funds use rally to book profit in Sesa Goa

Select domestic mutual funds were seen booking profits in Sesa Goa on Thursday. The stock gained close to 1% to Rs 378.95, after touching an intraday high of Rs 385.90. According to dealers, these funds had bought Sesa Goa shares at around Rs 320-325 almost a month back, when the stock was reeling under selling pressure led by a fall in global commodity prices. In the past week or so, the stock has risen roughly 7%. Analysts don’t recommend buying the stock at these levels citing steep valuations.

Contributed by Sangita Mehta, Santosh Nair & Harish Rao



Aqua offers action-packed fare


Aqua Logistics, a recently listed mid-cap player in the logistics sector, is witnessing higher investor interest following the current boom in demand from key user industries including auto, construction and pharma.

The stock touched a 52-week high of Rs 545 intra-day on Thursday before it ended the day at Rs 541.3. Since its listing on February 23, the stock has more than doubled compared to an 8.7% rise in the broader Sensex.

During the same period, the stock of its larger peer Transport Corporation of India gained 32% while Allcargo Global Logistics scrip declined 6.2%.

Apart from the strong growth in the domestic economy, investor sentiment has also been boosted by Aqua Logistics’ recent expansion into the booming East Asian market. As part of this strategy, Aqua Logistics had recently completed the acquisition of a 60% stake in three Hong Kong-based companies for $7.1 million (nearly 32.5 crore). The company via its recent IPO had raised Rs 150 crore and funding this acquisition should not be a problem.

However, Aqua Logistics’ operating margin declined 40 basis points 10.1% in FY10, despite the year-on-year 51% jump in its income from operations. Pressure on its operating margin was due to higher operating expenses. Nevertheless, the company’s net profit increased 84% to Rs 20.5 crore in FY10.

Aqua’s stock may continue to see some more action in the coming days given its plans to split shares. The company’s board is considering the sub-division of its share, from the current face value of Rs 10. It is likely to declare the exact split ratio next week. Though the move will not change its paid-up capital, the number of traded shares will increase, adding to the stock’s liquidity.

In addition, the company plans to seek shareholders’ approval for a fresh issue of shares of a size not exceeding $70 million (nearly Rs 320 crore). Aqua’s stock currently trades at 37.7 times its trailing 12-month earnings. This makes it one of the most expensive stocks in the sector.

Godrej Properties: High-rise dreams

PNB: Next level of rationalisation

A healthy dose for your investment portfolio

Analysts' corner

SAIL

Steel Sector Update

IDFC - upside potential

KPIT Cummins

Persistent Systems

Daily Technicals - June 25 2010

Direct Tax Code 2.0

Container Corporation

Src: ET , Smartinvestor, DP blog etc

India's most powerful CEOs

India's most powerful CEOs



ndia Inc's most powerful CEOs

Comment Mail to friend

ET Bureau

On March 23, 1991 at 12.30 pm, an ailing JRD Tata told Ratan Tata that he had chosen his successor. Ratan Naval Tata was to be the next chairman of Tata Sons.

Ratan recalls the news left him “a bit speech-less”, and truth be told, it had a similar effect on much of corporate India. Untested and unknown, how would this new person fill the shoes of the legendary JRD? What would he do to grow the House of Tata, India largest, best-known conglomerate? As it turned out, plenty.

Over two decades, Ratan Tata has transformed what was once a loose confederation of companies into a unified powerhouse. With marquee acquisitions, the game changing Nano, and a global growth agenda, the 72 year old has primed India’s premier business house for another long innings. Which is why he has been voted not only India Inc’s Most Powerful CEO for 2009, but also the CEO of the Decade.

The wait is finally over. Check out India Inc’s most definitive power list:

Next >>

Also Read

The Power List of Top 100 CEOs | India Inc's most powerful CEOs | Methodology: How we did it | India Inc's most powerful women leaders | Corporate leaders' musings on power | 10 commandments for CEOs and aspiring CEOs | Caricatures of the top 10 CEOs of India

Src: ET

Derivative Calls

Derivative Calls

We have started New Initiative DERIVATIVE CALLs(Future and Options) for Investors and Traders.. But this is purely sourced from Outside Websites, Medias, and Other Brokerages... All of you Know DERIVATIVE is High RISK also a High REWARD one.. Loss Will be More if Not keeping Strict SL.

So Kindly DO all the calls Given in DERIVATIVE Segment with STRICT STOP LOSS.

Becos HIGH RISK and HIGH REWARD..

Take these calls with Own Financial Risk/Proper Guidance.


Derivative Call (high risk)

ABAN FUT (July) cmp 740

Short @ 745-755 Levels,
Tgt 726-710-695
Strict SL 770 (Lot 400)

Buy Patni Fut(Jul) cmp 526

Buy @ Current Level & ADD @ 514,

Tgt 535-546-563

Stirct SL 495

Do F&O Calls with Proper Guide

************************

Flat to negative start likely; Weekly inflation eyed

Flat finish for Nifty ahead of F&O expiry

Larsen and Tourbo, Cement Sector

PNB, Oriental Bank of Commerce

Axis Bank, Real Estate, Cement Sector

Indraprastha Gas

Usha Martin - time to buy

Technical Calls - June 24 2010

Nalco: Rich metal


Shoppers Stop: Getting the right bargain


STOCK ANALYSIS: Shree Cement


Trading desk



Src: DP blog and Smartinvestor.in

We have high hopes for India: CLSA

We have high hopes for India: CLSA


CLSA, majority owned by Crédit Agricole (France), is one of Asia Pacific's most highly rated independent equity brokers and financial-services groups, focused on providing broking, investment banking and asset management to global corporates.CLSA Capital Partners is the firm’s alternative asset-management arm, comprising funds with more than $2.5 bn under management.

In an exclusive interview, ET NOW caught up with Richard Pyvis, Executive Chairman, CLSA Capital Partners on the East Asian models of growth, the 'middle class' purchase potential and other economic pointers in the Apac region.

Let us talk about demographics first. Here is how we see it here from perch here. Japan is old with China, of course the key demographic question is whether it is going to become rich before it gets old and with India, we are seeing an enormous bulge in the supply of young workers without nearly enough capital available to absorb them all, so are you seeing the demographic picture any differently from this?

Richard Pyvis : Yes, demographics is a really big issue affecting Asia. We have got one about a third of the world population sitting here in the region from India or out in the west through the Japan in the Northeast and the demographic across that region is quite different. If I start with Japan, Japan is a really interesting story because you have got a demographic profile shape like a champagne glass with very few younger workers coming into the available workforce. Interesting thing there of course is that with that lack of supply, do you need to have positive growth in Japan. Perhaps there is an argument that says that negative growth is a good thing or is a sensible thing.

Alternately, you have got to import labour. Then we zip over to China and China has a demographic list or little bit like that and I have seen some numbers that say that by about 2015-2018, we would start to get a labour shortage in China on the assumption that capital and technology remain pretty much as they are in their current application in China. That is likely to change and so any forecast on the Chinese demographic and its impact on its productive capability is probably going to change over the course of the next 5-10 years.

Then we will wonder how apart from the fact that you guys are way too good at cricket which causes me a lot of grief from time to time coming from Australia, you have got a fantastic demographic with an enormous supply of youth coming into the market and your challenge is really to enable the entry of that used into the labour market and to make sure that labour force is well educated and skilled as it can be so that India gets the greatest productivity out of that labour availability.

Coming to middle class theme that you have identified, where do you think that theme is playing out to its fullest potential?

Richard Pyvis : I could not help overhearing your earlier comments on FMCG sector in India and the same comments could probably apply right across the region, particularly in the younger population countries and in particular India and Indonesia. So that is certainly a sector that is going to benefit from increases in per capita GDP, increases in disposable income, greater propensity for consumption. So we are going to see that sector in particular benefit from this emerging middle class that is occurring right before our eyes right across the region.

1|2|3|Next >

Also See 1500th Post to Know About CLSA.


Src: Economictimes.indiatimes.com

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