Worst not over for Nifty?

Worst not over for Nifty?

For most retail investors, having got used to an extended bearish phase, Monday’s session was just another bad day. But technical indicators and data in the derivatives segment suggest there is more to it. And the ease with which the 50-share Nifty index crashed below the 4,800 mark — viewed as a strong support till now — may be a sign of even worse things to come. Going into Monday’s session, there was a huge build up of over 64 lakh shares in the 4,800 June put option contract.

This itself indicates that the writers of those put options were confident that the index would not fall below that mark. Just how big a support level 4,800 was being viewed as can be made out from the fact that the build-up in any other option contract of the June series was not even half of that. This huge build-up at the 4,800 put was primarily responsible for the put-call ratio of option contracts (expiring in June), rising to an unusually high level of 1.95. Even after Monday’s sell-off, the 4,800 put continues to see a build-up of over 61 lakh shares and the June put-call ratio has come down just marginally to 1.74.

On a historical basis, this points to a highly over-bought market, ready for a steep correction. With the correction having already started and things poised as they are, this simply suggests that the pain may have just started. Even Nifty June future contracts validated this as they added close to 20 lakh shares in open interest to end Monday’s session at a discount of 17.3 points — a clear reflection that fresh short positions have opened up below 4,800. That the discount on Nifty futures hardly narrowed down over that on Friday further suggests that bears were in no hurry to cover their short positions despite the significant fall on Monday.

The plunge below 4,800 has even more significance if you go by technical charts. After the carnage in January this year, the first significant bottom that the Nifty had made was at around the 4,800 mark on February 11. Even the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from the bottom made on March 18 to the intermediate top made on May 2 is at around 4,775. That the Nifty had found support at around 4,800 even during the late sell-off last Thursday had only created further hopes that the 4,800 mark will, in all likelihood, hold. But those hopes were belied on Monday as the Nifty broke through 4,800 as a hot knife through butter. The convincing break of all these strong supports means that the Nifty will probably now go on to taste, at least, its lows that it made in March.


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