Week Ahead: Crucial support at 3900: BS

Week Ahead: Crucial support at 3900

A small recovery was followed by another downturn in a very volatile market. The Nifty ended up 0.82 per cent at 4049 points after hitting highs of 4215. The Sensex was up an even more nominal 0.1 per cent at 13,469. The Defty gained 1.5 per cent as the rupee recovered from $43.40 to $42.70.

The FIIs continue to be net sellers while domestic funds are still buying, albeit in small quantities. Volumes remain low and declines slightly outnumbered advances.
Relatively smaller stocks did better than pivotals with the Junior jumping 3.6 per cent and the Midcaps up 1.6 per cent while the BSE 500 gained 1.26 per cent. However, really small stocks suffered from lack of liquidity Outlook: The market is likely to range-trade between 3900-4200 with fairly high daily volatility. A breakout in either direction would lead to a 200 point move. So a breakout could lead to a swing till either 3700 or 4400. Expect weakness early in the week.
Rationale: The intermediate trend, which turned bearish in early May could now be petering out. The long-term trend is clearly negative.

Daily high-low ranges of 200-plus points are likely. Support at 3850-3900 is strong while there is powerful resistance at 4200-plus. There could be a boost to sentiment if the UPA wins the confidence vote.

Counter-view: The test of support at 3900, which is likely to occur early this week, is crucial. If 3900 holds, the intermediate trend will reverse. This is a long F&O settlement and technical factors like short-covering will not come into play immediately. For the market to hold at 3900 and then break 4200 on the next bounce will require some genuine value-buying.

Bulls & bears: Q1 results have just started floating in and obviously that has a major impact. IT scrips lost ground this week after Infosys' results and guidance was released. There was massive volatility across the sector and end-Friday, majors such as HCL Tech, Wipro, I-Flex, Polaris, Satyam and TCS all looked bearish.

Much of the recovery came from banks and real estate stocks which had been beaten down severely and saw reversal this week. The BankNifty gained over 5 per cent with most banks spiking up. In real estate, DLF, Omaxe and Sobha looked most interesting in terms of potential bullishness.

However, Friday saw momentum being lost in both these sectors. Select cement stocks and capital goods and engineering construction outfits also made comebacks. Non-ferrous metal producers like Nalco, Hindalco and Sterlite saw lots of bull interest. If the SP shores up the UPA successfully, there may also be a bounce for ADAG scrips such as RCom, Reliance Infra, and RNRL. There was scattered interest in scrips such as Cairn, Dabur, Tata Chemicals and Voltas.
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MICRO TECHNICALS

Aban Current Price: Rs 2,845.95 Target Price: Rs 3,000
The stock has risen off a support at 2550 and is likely to move till 2900 before it hits resistance. If it closes above 2900, the next resistance is at 3000. It looks quite likely to move above 2900 since volumes have built up. Keep a stop at 2820 and go long. Book a partial profit at 2900.

HDFC Bank Current Price: Rs 1,067.8 Target Price: Rs 1,125
HDFC Bank is amongst the most promising bank shares. It has maintained its recovery on Friday when other bank stocks saw a repeat sell off. The scrip has the potential to rise till around the 1125 mark and maybe even 1150. Keep a stop at 1050 and go long. Start closing out the position above 1125.

Nalco Current Price: Rs 380.70Target Price: Rs 410
The stock has shot up from 305 on strong volume expansion. It has just completed a bullish formation with a breakout above 370. The target projection would be around 410. Keep a stop at 375 and go long.

ONGCCurrent Price: Rs 849.5Target Price: Rs 820
The stock has seen a bearish engulfing pattern where prices on Friday moved between a high -low range of 845-927 and closed at the low end. The range was far more than in previous sessions. The target would be about 820. Keep a stop at 860 and go short.

TCS Current Price: Rs 798.60Target Price: Rs 770
A massively bearish engulfing pattern was visible in TCS where the price also made a downside breakout from a trading range but not on very high volumes. There could be a downside till around the 760 level. However this target may not be achieved due to lack of volume. More likely we will see range-trading between 770-830. Go short with a stop at 810 and be prepared for high volatility.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)

Source: Business Standard