Nifty to touch 6000 if it crosses 4650: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Nifty to touch 6000 if it crosses 4650: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

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In a candid interview with CNBC-TV18’s Udayan Mukherjee, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, one of India’s most respected equity investors, said the Sensex could go up to 20,000 and then slip into a trading range between 15,000 and 16,000. The benchmark index won’t hit 21,000 in a straight run though, the Big Bull said.
“If the Nifty breaks 4650 decisively and holds for a week or so, it could hit 5900-6000,” Jhunjhunwala said. The markets would consolidate between 4,000-5,000 for three-four years, he added.
The correction seen in the latter part of 2008, he said, was a part of a major bull run that continues and which started in September 2001. “The bull market started in September 2001. We had the first leg up to September 2002 after which there was a correction. Then it started from April 2003, that leg lasted till 21,000,” the ace investor said. “That gets corrected back now to 7,500-8,000 and now we have resumed that bull market. So we can go to 20,000 and again come back to 16,000-15,000, make a range and then make a move which goes above 21,000.”
Excerpts from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s exclusive interview on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the video.
Q: We spoke on the day after the election results. I do not think even we imagined the market would be here. What is the screen telling you now?
A: The screen is telling me that the bear correction of the larger bull market in India is over. If the markets do not break below 4,000 levels in the next six-nine months — and the screen is telling us they won’t — then surely the fall from 6,000 to 2,500 for the Nifty and from 21,000 to 7,500-8,000 for the index was just a correction in the longer-term bull market in India. Actually, in my opinion, the correction started in September 2001 because the real bottom the market made was post-September 11, 2001 and then the market went up to 3,500 and had a historic correction back from April 2003.
Despite people’s apprehension and doubts about the economic scenario worldwide, it could be that the fall [in 2008] was just a correction. I also feel so because of the way the [subsequent] rise took place with its tremendous breadth, tremendous pace with good volumes — but with a lot of cynicism and lack of participation among the larger people.
Q: You do not agree with the consensus feeling right now that we should be scared by the pace of the rise. That we are now approaching a mini bubble kind of a situation?
A: You first asked what the screen was saying, you never asked me what my opinion was.
Just like others, there is a fair amount of doubt in my mind too. Internationally, things are not clear at all and I do not think that the downturn in the western economies — even if there is some kind of an improvement in the next 12-24 months — has really peaked. So with that knowledge about the world economy, it clouds the judgement of what can happen in India.
However, If you look at the other side of the story, I see no reason why — if Indian software exports grow by 10-15%, commodity prices hold at reasonable levels and we have good government policies — India cannot grow at double digits. We have large internal savings. If we do well, the world capital will be at our doorsteps, there will be no lack of capital if the government is able to facilitate investments. So those are the two sides but I am more tilted towards the second side because in the initial stages, they say, bull markets always go up on a wall of worry and bear markets always go down on a ray of hope.
The fact is that market is just going up in an unexpected pace and everybody is worrying. Surely I am also apprehensive about the valuation and the pace but markets are markets.
Q: When you look at the screen, what worries you? Does it worry you that valuations are far ahead of fundamentals or do you see the kind of participation or mania that you saw in 2007 or that is not visible just yet?
A: Not at all, not even 5%. I don’t go to any cocktail party where stock markets are even talked because everybody is totally left out. And the futures positions are indicative, the number of calls you get, the apprehension that people have in the buy stocks — I don’t know where the buyers are coming from but I don’t think there is even 20% of the participation of that what was in 2007.
Q: Will they all get sucked in you think before this rally tops out, people who have been sitting out?
A: It is very difficult to leave a burning cigarette in a rising market. Everybody will ultimately join. I don’t know how many calls I got when we made a 52-week high. Normally, a lot of channels call me, no channel called me to get an opinion when the market was at a 52-week high. I don’t even know how many people know we were at a 52-week high.
So I think crowd psychology-wise or sentiment-wise, I don’t think at all we are anywhere near any kind of a top.
Q: Are you trading yourself with a bit more caution because you were saying you are also in two minds right now or are you trading the kind of volumes you were trading in the big momentum of 2007?
A: I don’t think I am trading the way II was in 2007. After all, I am a human too and I am also affected by what my thoughts are. However, I am far surer about the [country’s] longer-term growth prospects and the strength than most people.
On next page: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on market range ahead
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Nifty to touch 6000 if it crosses 4650: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
Need reforms, FDI in insurance at 49%: Sunil Mittal
See 8% GDP in next 2-3 years: Uday Kotak

Source:Moneycontrol.com

Govt mulls 10% stake sale in BHEL

Govt mulls 10% stake sale in BHEL

NEW DELHI: The government on Friday said it is considering offloading 10 per cent of its equity stake in navratna public sector unit BHEL. "The point of disinvestment (in BHEL) is still under consideration... the government has definitely a positive thinking on that line," Minister of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Vilasrao Deshmukh said when asked whether the government is considering divesting 10 per cent in the company. Addressing his first conference after taking charge as the Cabinet Minister, Deshmukh said his department would back the disinvestment policies of the government. BHEL is a power equipment Rs 28,000 crore listed company. Its stock is trading at Rs 2,060.10 on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The government, if it chooses to further disinvest its stake in the company, will have to come with a follow-on public offer. The government at present holds a 67.72 per cent equity stake in power equipment maker BHEL, which would come down to 57.72 per cent if it divests 10 per cent equity. Minister of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Vilasrao Deshmukh while announcing the 100-day agenda for its department said that BHEL would enter into an agreement with Indian Railways for supply of stainless steel EMU coaches on a long term basis. BHEL would synchronise eight thermal and hydro sets to generate 1,200 MW capacity in the next 100 days, he said. He said, BHEL would sign an agreement with Madhya Pradesh Power Generation Company for setting up a joint venture to build,own and operate 2x800 MW super critical power plant in Bansagar in the state and also sign a similar agreement with Gujarat State Electricity Generation Co for the setting-up of a 1x800 MW supercritical thermal power plant. The company would synchronise five captive power plants totalling 228 MW of capacity as a part of its 100-day agenda.

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Mahindra Holidays fixes IPO price band at Rs 275-325/sh

Mahindra Holidays fixes IPO price band at Rs 275-325/sh

Mahindra Holidays and Resorts India (MHRIL), one of the leading leisure hospitality providers in India offering quality family holidays and a part of Mahindra Group, is entering the capital market with an initial public offering of 92,65,275 equity shares of Rs 10 each for cash at a price to be decided through a 100% book-building process.

The bid/ issue will open on June 23, 2009, and close on June 26, 2009. The IPO price band is fixed at Rs 275-325 per share. The size of the issue will be Rs 301 crore at the upper end of the price band and Rs 255 crore at the lower end of the band. M&M (Mahindra and Mahindra) will raise Rs 90.7-123 crore from the sale of 33 lakh shares and it will hold 83% of the Mahindra Holidays post issue.

The issue has been assigned 4 out of 5 IPO grading by Fitch Ratings India Private Limited reflecting 'above average fundamentals’ of the issue relative to other listed equity securities.

The issue comprises a fresh issue of 58,96,084 equity shares and an offer for sale of 33,69,191 equity shares by Mahindra and Mahindra (the “selling shareholder”). The issue would constitute 11.0% of the fully diluted post-issue paid-up capital of the company.

The proceeds from MHRIL’s proposed issue are expected to be deployed in the setting up of new projects and expansion of some of the existing resorts, to provide a larger range of resorts, and hence a wider choice of holiday destinations to members.

Mr Arun Kumar Nanda, Chairman, MHRIL, said, "It is a proud moment that the Mahindra & Mahindra Group’s leisure hospitality and vacation ownership company with an integrated business model is poised to tap the capital markets. The business of MHRIL has been supported by changing demographics, strong economic growth and increasing disposable incomes in India over the last three years. We believe MHRIL’s brands, inventory, distribution of resorts and its integrated model, combined with the company being an early mover in the industry, will give it significant competitive advantage.”

The global coordinator and book running lead manager (BRLM) is Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited. HSBC Securities & Capital Markets (India) Private Limited and SBI Capital Markets are the BRLMs. The equity shares are proposed to be listed on the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited.

MHRIL, one of the leading players in the leisure hospitality industry, offers quality family holidays primarily through vacation ownership memberships. MHRIL’s flagship brand is Club Mahindra Holidays, which has been selected as Superbrand 2009. MHRIL has also introduced new vacation ownership offerings such as Zest and Club Mahindra Fundays, Mahindra Homestays, travel and holiday related services through clubmahindra.travel. The cumulative member base increased to 92,825 in fiscal 2009 from 38,691 in fiscal 2006. As of May 31, 2009, MHRIL has 96,067 members and 27 resorts across India and Thailand. About 35.18% of new member additions in FY09 came from referrals by existing members.

Mahindra Holidays had initially filed offer documents in December 2007 but did not proceed due to unfavourable market conditions. The company refiled its draft offer documents with SEBI on 30 September 2008.

It had sold a 2% stake to SBI and 1% stake to Jacob Ballas as pre-IPO placement at Rs 478/share in January 2008. It raised Rs 120 crore through a 3% sale.

Its reported FY09 sales were at Rs 400 crore and profit was at Rs 80 crore.

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• Sebi scraps entry load for MFs, cuts fees of intermediaries
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Source: Moneycontrol.com

RIL-RNRL Case Verdict:RIL shares fall after gas supply ruling;Court favours RNRL

RIL shares fall after gas supply ruling

Reliance Industries shares fall after gas supply ruling 15 Jun 2009, 1416 hrs IST, ET Bureau & Agencies

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MUMBAI: Shares in Reliance Industries fell as much as 6.1 percent after the Bonbay High Court directed it to supply gas to Reliance Natural Resources at lower than market prices. Reliance Industries, which has the highest weightage in the main share index, was asked to supply 28 million metric cubic metres a day for 17 years at $2.34 million per metric British thermal unit, the lawyer for Reliance Natural said after the court ruling. Shares in Reliance Natural soared as much as 23.4 percent to 107.70 rupees. "Reliance Industries will have to supply gas at a rate lower than the rate fixed by the government. They are going to incur a lower profit for that much amount," said D.D. Sharma, vice president at Anand Rathi Securities. By 0616 GMT, Reliance Industries was trading 5.4 percent lower at Rs 2,228.95 after hitting Rs 2,213.55. Reliance Industries is controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani while Reliance Natural Resources is headed by his younger brother Anil Ambani. By the gas supply master agreement, RIL was supposed to supply natural gas from the Krishna-Godavari basin to RNRL, to be used for the Anil Ambani group's power generation plant at Dadri in Uttar Pradesh. The GSMA came into existence in January 2006, following the demerger of the Reliance group. But both the sides differed on its terms related to the quantity of gas to be supplied, price, and duration of supply.

In December 2006, RNRL moved the Bombay High Court asking it to compel RIL to honour the gas agreement. Justice Anup Mohta, who heard the case, asked the companies to settle the matter internally under the June 2005 family agreement. The judge also restrained RIL from selling gas to third parties till the final order.

Unable to agree on the price, terms and quantity of gas, both firms approached the division bench of the Bombay High Court against the order of the single bench in early 2008. The hearing of the matter continued till February 2009. Thereafter, the division bench came out with an interim order allowing RIL to sell gas to third parties. The interim verdict also mentioned that RIL’s gas agreement with others would be subject to the court’s final order.

The basic argument in the RIL-RNRL case pertains to the pricing and quantum of gas. During the course of hearing, RNRL made it clear that it wanted 28 million metric standard cubic meters per day of gas for 17 years for $2.34 per million metric British thermal unit (mmBtu), while RIL argued that it could not sell gas below the government-approved price of $4.2 per mmBtu.


RNRL wins gas supply dispute; stock up 20%

RNRL wins gas supply dispute; stock up 20% 15 Jun 2009, 1120 hrs IST, ET Bureau

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MUMBAI: Shares of Reliance Natural Resources surged 20 per cent on huge volumes Monday after the Bombay High Court pronounced the judgment in Decade's hottest biz feuds Tycoons with a golden heart Mukesh's street on plushest list favour of the company in the long-standing RIL-RNRL gas supply agreement dispute. Bombay High Court has now given a month’s time to both parties to come to enter into an agreement. The court has asked Reliance Industries to sell gas to RNRL for 17 years at $2.34/MBTU. By the gas supply master agreement, RIL was supposed to supply natural gas from the Krishna-Godavari basin to RNRL, to be used for the Anil Ambani group's power generation plant at Dadri in Uttar Pradesh. The GSMA came into existence in January 2006, following the demerger of the Reliance group. But both the sides differed on its terms related to the quantity of gas to be supplied, price, and duration of supply. In December 2006, RNRL moved the Bombay High Court asking it to compel RIL to honour the gas agreement. Justice Anup Mohta, who heard the case, asked the companies to settle the matter internally under the June 2005 family agreement. The judge also restrained RIL from selling gas to third parties till the final order. Unable to agree on the price, terms and quantity of gas, both firms approached the division bench of the Bombay High Court against the order of the single bench in early 2008. The hearing of the matter continued till February 2009. Thereafter, the division bench came out with an interim order allowing RIL to sell gas to third parties. The interim verdict also mentioned that RIL’s gas agreement with others would be subject to the court’s final order.

The basic argument in the RIL-RNRL case pertains to the pricing and quantum of gas. During the course of hearing, RNRL made it clear that it wanted 28 million metric standard cubic meters per day of gas for 17 years for $2.34 per million metric British thermal unit (mmBtu), while RIL argued that it could not sell gas below the government-approved price of $4.2 per mmBtu.

At 11:15 am, shares of RNRL were up 20 per cent at Rs 105 while RIL shares fell 4 per cent to Rs 2258.

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RNRL wins gas supply dispute with Reliance



Source:EconomicTimes.com, Business Standard, Moneycontrol etc

World's best-performing stock markets

World's best-performing stock markets


World's best-performing stock markets of 2009

On January 8, 2008, history was made as the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index (Sensex) hit the magic 21,000-mark! Just about 18 years ago on July 25, 1990, the Sensex touched the magical four-digit figure for the first time and closed at 1,001 in the wake of a good monsoon and excellent corporate results.

But within two weeks of touching 21,000 the fairy tale ended, and on January 21, 2008 the Sensex registered the first-ever four digit loss when it plunged 1,408 points to close the day at 17,605.

Since then the slide was steeper till it almost plunged below 7,000.

At its peak in October 2007, global equity, or the market capitalisation of all companies in world stock markets, stood at $62.5 trillion, close to that year's world GDP figure of $65 trillion.

Then the American sub-prime crisis hit the shores, banks collapsed and financial institutions went belly-up.

A jaw-dropping $37 trillion of wealth in the form of market cap was wiped out in 18 months up to the multi-year lows that were reached on March 9, 2009. That was 59 per cent of public company values, or $25.5 trillion.

Since then, however, equity values have risen 37 per cent - a wealth-growth of $9.5 trillion - to just over $37 trillion.

Almost all markets fell in 2008. According to a report by EconomyWatch, 62 markets out of the 83 studied are now up.

Read on to find out more...

Discuss | Email | Print | Get latest news on your desktop Back | Next World's best-performing stock markets of 2009 Peru 2009 growth: 72.92% Decline from 52-week high: -31.94% The Bolsa de Valores de Lima, the stock exchange of Peru has several indices. The IGBVL (Indice General Bolsa de Valores) is a value-weighted index that tracks the performance of the largest and most actively traded stocks on the Lima exchange. Peru's economy has shown strong growth over the past seven years, averaging 6.8 per cent a year, helped by market-oriented economic reforms and privatisations in the 1990s. Its GDP grew 9.8 per cent in 2008 to $127.8 billion. Note: All stock market figures are till May 25, 2009

Discuss | Email | Print | Get latest news on your desktop Back | Next World's best-performing stock markets of 2009 Russia 2009 growth: 53.33% Decline from 52-week high: -61.22% The Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange or MICEX is one of the largest universal stock exchanges in the Russian Federation and East Europe. MICEX opened in 1992 and is the leading Russian stock exchange, consisting of shares and corporate bonds of about 600 Russian companies. After a massive sell-off last year pushed the valuations of Russian companies to record lows, rising energy prices in recent months have drawn investors back into the market. In May 2009, the Micex index of major Russian company shares, was up about 105 per cent after bottoming out on October 27. Russia's economy shrank by 7 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2009. Unemployment was up, at 8.5 per cent in February, the highest level since January 2005. Image: Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange.

Discuss | Email | Print | Get latest news on your desktop Back | Next World's best-performing stock markets of 2009 India 2009 growth: 48.25% Decline from 52-week high: -18.26% Bombay Stock Exchange, Asia's oldest bourse, is 133 years old and had a market capitalisation of $1.79 trillion (December 31, 2007). BSE is the world's number 1 exchange in terms of the number of listed companies and the world's 5th in transaction numbers. Braving the global recessionary trends, India managed 6.7 per cent economic growth in 2008-09 despite the manufacturing sector recording a dismal performance. A 5.8 per cent growth rate during the last quarter of the fiscal, at a time when most developed economies have shrunk, puts India among the top-most growing nations. Inflation slipped to 0.13 per cent, the lowest ever in over three decades even as prices of essential food items turned dearer. Image: A man speaks on a phone in front of a bronze replica of a bull at the gates of Bombay Stock Exchange. Photograph: Arko Datta/Reuters

Discuss | Email | Print | Get latest news on your desktop Back | Next World's best-performing stock markets of 2009 China 2009 growth: 47.01% Decline from 52-week high: -26.30% The Shanghai Composite Index, the benchmark for the Chinese domestic market, rose six-fold in just over two years, starting in mid-2005, before a yearlong drop starting in late 2007 that left it about 70 per cent lower. It is up 52 per cent in 2009, China's 2009 real GDP is seen to grow by just 6.5 per cent. Growth will recover in 2010, but only to 7.3 per cent. The economy will be supported by a rapid expansion of government infrastructure spending and policies to revive housing investment. The outlook for exports is poor, but falling commodity prices will also depress imports

More @ World's best-performing stock markets

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Sensex closes 174 points lower


Source:Rediff, ET.

Indias Best Companies to Work for 2009

India's Best Companies to Work for 2009

India's Best Companies to Work For 2009 10 Jun 2009, 1226 hrs IST

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Business is all about results. Results arise from opportunities. Opportunities arise from relationships. And business relationships must work beyond the boundaries of achievement to distinguish a good workplace from a great one. In its latest edition of "India's Best Companies To Work For-2009", The Economic Times in partnership with the Great Places To Work Institute, attempts to do just that. Here's a list of India's top 25 best workplaces: Read the complete article:

India's Best Companies To Work For 2009

RMSI Pvt Ltd 10 Jun 2009, 1223 hrs IST

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Rank: 1 India HQ: Noida Employees: 1457 Gender Ratio (F:M): 1:4.69 Employee Turnover: 8% Best Practices: There is more gravitas in the work culture of the company than the slew of awards it has won over the years reflects. It encourages its employees to diversify and rewards them for their out of the box efforts. Read the full article: RMSI Private Pimited : Reach meet share involve

Intel Technology India Pvt Ltd 10 Jun 2009, 1222 hrs IST

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Rank: 2 India HQ: Bangalore Employees: 2541 Gender Ratio (F:M): 1:3.65 Employee Turnover: 10% Best Practices: At every group in Intel, there are broad guidelines or deliverables set, but the culture is always steeped in how they could make things bigger, better. The chipmaker also believes in fully equipping with various tools for its workers. Read the full article: Intel Technology India Pvt Ltd : Inside intelligence too Federal Express Corporation 10 Jun 2009, 1220 hrs IST Print Save EMail Write to Editor Rank: 3 India HQ: Mumbai Employees: 511 Gender Ratio (F:M): 1:4.68 Employee Turnover: 21% Best Practices: It isn’t just the camaraderie, though that drives the company loyalty Federal Express is reputed for; it’s the fairness that has become a hallmark of the organisation, something its founder-CEO Fred Smith instilled right at its inception. Read the full article: Federal Express Corporation : Purple patch

More @ India's Best Companies to Work for 2009



Source:Economic Times