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02 January 2010

India to overtake China in 2020

India to overtake China in 2020: Swaminathan Aiyar

In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a

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chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020:

India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world’s second-biggest economy, China’s export-oriented model will erode sharply — the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India’s GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China’s growth will dip to 7-8%.

India will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world, overtaking the US. So, the global publishing industry will shift in a big way to India. Rupert Murdoch’s heirs will sell his collapsing media empire to Indian buyers. The New York Times will become a subsidiary of an Indian publishing giant.

In the 2000s, India finally gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. By 2020, Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital link in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others.

India, along with the US and Canada, will develop new technology to extract natural gas from gas hydrates — a solidified form of gas lying on ocean floors. India has the largest gas hydrate deposits in the world, and so will become the biggest global producer. This will enable India to substitute gas for coal in power generation, hugely reducing carbon emissions and making Jairam Ramesh look saintly.

India will also discover enormous deposits of shale gas in its vast shale formations running through the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and Gujarat. New technology has made the extraction of shale gas economic, so India will become a major gas producer and exporter. Meanwhile, Iran’s mullahs will be overthrown, and a new democratic regime will usher in rapid economic growth that creates a shortage of gas in Iran by 2020. So, the Iran-India pipeline will be recast, but in reverse form: India will now export gas to Iran.

More and more regions of India will demand separate statehood. By 2020, India will have 50 states instead of the current 28. The new states will not exactly be small. With 50 states and a population of almost 1.5 billion, India will average 30 million people per state, far higher than the current US average of 6 million per state.

China, alarmed at India’s rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. The issue will go to the Security Council.

Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US will withdraw from the region, leaving India to bear the brunt of consequences. Terrorism will rise in India, but the economy will still keep growing. How so? Well, 3000 people die every year falling off Mumbai’s suburban trains, and that does not stop Mumbai’s growth. Terrorism will bruise India, but not halt its growth.

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Top 10 Indian companies of the decade

Top 10 Indian companies of the decade

Last updated on: December 31, 2009 21:18 IST

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Bhupesh Bhandari

India Inc entered the 21st Century more confident and more competitive. Many of the previous decade's top ten were not even around a decade earlier. In this era of change few thought in year 2000 that by 2010 Ratan Tata would continue to head any list of high performers. He did!

Life began for Ratan Tata in 2000. That year, Tata Tea acquired Tetley of the United Kingdom. This was the first major acquisition of a global brand by an Indian company.

Four years later, it was Tata Motors' turn -- it bought the heavy vehicles business of bankrupt Daewoo Motors in South Korea. Next year, Tata Steel acquired NatSteel in Singapore. All of this paled into insignificance in 2007 when Tata Steel bought Anglo-Dutch steel maker Corus for $12 billion. It made Tata Steel the fifth largest steel company in the world.

A year later, Tata Motors became the new owner of marquee brands Jaguar and Land Rover after it paid Ford $2.3 billion. The crowning glory came in 2009 when he launched an ultra-low-cost car, the Nano. Not bad at all.

The decade that draws to an end will go down in history as the one in which Indian business spread its footprint across the globe. Strong economic growth till 2008, which was driven by domestic consumption, had filled the coffers of most companies.

The flow of global capital had taken the stock markets to new heights, which made Indian businessmen rich beyond compare. The list of Indian billionaires had become long. They had the money to buy assets that were on the block. Click NEXT to read on further. . .