A day before the Budget, the Economic Survey on Thursday predicted up to 8.75 per cent growth in 2010-11 while recommending a gradual roll back of stimulus -- a move that could entail hike in excise duty and service tax.
Warning that high double digit food prices could lead to "higher-than-anticipated" general level of inflation, the Survey called for effective steps to be taken to remove supply-side bottlenecks together with other policies.
The Survey said the government policy, other calibrated measures and tax reliefs as contained in the stimulus have helped the economy shrug off effects of slowdown triggered by global financial meltdown in 2008.
The buoyancy in the economy in tandem with reforms would make India possibly the fastest growing economy in the next four years, it said while recommending that there was a need for improving government financial by way of raising tax and non-tax revenues and containing deficit.
Last week, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council too had suggested partial roll back of stimulus measures, including raising excise duty and service tax rates.
The Survey also echoed this view: "The broad-based nature of the recovery creates scope for a gradual rollback, in due course, of some of the measures undertaken over the last 15-18 months. . . so as to put the economy back on to the growth path of nine per cent annually."
The economy is projected to grow by 7.2 per cent this fiscal with industrial and services sectors growing at 8.2 and 8.7 per cent, respectively. Full recovery is likely over the next two fiscals with up to 8.75 per cent growth in 2010-11 and nine per cent the subsequent year.
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