Showing posts with label Market views. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market views. Show all posts

21 July 2011

$ 100/Oz Silver Is Now A Conservative Target – Luke Burgess

$ 100/Oz Silver Is Now A Conservative Target – Luke Burgess






Most investors assume that because silver is almost 50 times cheaper than gold, it’s more abundant. They’re wrong.
The amount of available silver is far rarer than the amount of available gold.
This fact is often overlooked by even the most seasoned silver investors. And it’s this lack of silver stockpiles that has become one of the most critical factors in what could jolt prices, lifting silver into an entirely different asset class all together.
So forget $100 silver — $100 is now considered a timid prediction. Some experts are now calling for silver prices to be on par with gold!
Let me quickly explain how we got here. Global silver mining has increased significantly over the past two decades.

Silver output has more than doubled since the early 1990s in places like Mexico, Australia, and Peru. Other countries have seen even more dramatic production spikes. In China, a relatively new major supplier of the metal, silver mining has scaled up from less than 10 million ounces in 1991 to more than 100 million ounces today.

Overall, the world’s total silver mining production has increased from 400 million ounces in the early 1990s to about 700 million ounces today.But despite a sharp increase to supplies, the global demand for silver is far outpacing global production.
In fact global silver production has be unable to meet global demand for more than fifteen years. The world’s silver mines are simply not producing enough silver to meet demand.
In 2010, global silver demand exceed 1.05 billion ounces; but as you saw in the chart above, global mining has only provided about 700 million ounces.

So how has the market been filling this deficit?

Over the last two generations, major government stockpiles of silver have been sold off to supply the industry. The United States government alone has dumped nearly 5 billion ounces of silver into the market since WWII.
Of course, any government’s well of silver reserves are finite. And over the past few years, government supplies of silver have been drying up. Data from the Silver Institute shows net government sales of silver falling drastically in the past decade.


2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net Government Sales
(million ounces)
63.0 59.2 88.7 61.9 65.9 78.5 42.5 28.9 15.5 44.8
This is one of the major reasons it is critical to act now.
Without government stockpiles to feed it, the market only has few other places to buy its silver. Scrap metal is one option for the market, and will continue to help supply rising demand in the near term. But this well will also quickly run dry — and that will create a real problem for consumers who need silver…


Silver is Actually Rarer than Gold
Silver is 17.5 times more abundant in the Earth’s crust than gold. But the amount of above-ground gold far exceeds the amount of silver.
In 1950, there were 10 billion ounces of available silver above ground. By 1980, that number shrank to 3.5 billion. And today, no significant government stockpiles of silver exist anywhere in the world. The USGS actually lists the U.S. government’s current stockpile of silver simply as: “None.”


The exact opposite is true of gold. In 1950, there were an estimated 1 billion ounces of above-ground gold. Today, there are nearly 5.8 billion ounces across the globe.
The world currently produces about 700 million ounces of silver per year.
So where does it all go?
Believe it or not, most of it winds up as garbage. We literally throw billions of dollars’ worth of silver in trash bins every year.
Silver is required in the production of products like CDs, cell phone batteries, calculators, printed circuit boards, hearing aids, electronic switches, TV screens, catalytic converters, inks, computer monitors, RFID chips, and thousands more. Once any of these items have served their purpose, they generally get tossed. And it’s simply more expensive to recycle the silver from these products than it is to dig more out of the ground.

Tiny bits of silver in electronics are thrown away every day.


I expect that the world’s trash dumps will be a precious source of resources like silver in the future.
You see, gold is produced, but it’s not consumed. Even though gold is a highly desired item, it’s not an industrial commodity.
In other words, gold is desired, but silver is needed.
All of the gold that has ever been mined is basically still around. Studies suggest that 98% of all gold mined throughout history is still available in either coins, bars, artifacts, and jewelry. But silver is different.

From 1990 to 2000 alone, over two billion ounces of silver disappeared from the market to consumption.
Despite the lack of global stockpiles, new technology will continue to discover more industrial applications for silver, putting a further strain on world supplies. Consider the new photovoltaic industry as an example…
In China, the production of photovoltaic solar panel has doubled every single year since 2003. The demand for silver from the global photovoltaic industry has soared in the past few years, and global demand is expected to reach 150 million ounces per year by 2015 — just to satisfy the photovoltaic industry.

But to widen the supply deficit even more, the Silver Institute forecasts industrial uses of silver will rise sharply over the next five years. The organization estimates that by 2015, the demand for silver from industry will increase 36%.
Meanwhile, the demand for silver for jewelry and investment is reaching record levels. A survey of 340 retail jewelers representing ~4,000 individual stores recently showed silver jewelry sales hitting record highs. 

The survey found:
  • 87% of jewelry retailers said their silver jewelry sales increased in 2010
  • 52% said their silver jewelry sales increased between 11% and 25%; 28% saw an increase over 25%
  • Retailers rated the following categories as giving them the “best” maintained margin:
    • Silver jewelry 57%
    • Diamond jewelry 20%
    • Bridal jewelry 15%
    • Gold jewelry 4%
    • Platinum jewelry 4%

The UK’s Royal Mint, which makes the Britannia silver bullion coins and other collector silver coins, reported silver coin production in the first half of the current year has doubled.
In the meantime, American Eagle Silver bullion coins continue to move at a record-setting sales pace. The latest sales figures indicate the U.S. Mint sold over total of 3.4 million Silver Eagles in June. This figure earned the title as the “Best Ever June,” and ranked seventh place in all-time monthly sales.
This is all very much in line with reports from other mints around the world, which have also seen a huge surge in silver coin sales over the period.
There’s no doubt the silver market will have to face a serious deficit. And in order to balance the deficit, silver will have to come from somewhere…
I believe the majority of this silver will come from investors. And for investors to sell, we’ll need to see higher prices.
The world has been drawing down its above-ground supply of silver for decades, diminishing the only source of what is available for investment. And only now have we begun to collectively recognize silver as a solid investment.
This is the perfect market for silver prices to appreciate. Global supply deficits continue to be ignored year after year by investors. This is slowly changing, but owning silver has not gone mainstream yet…
Even as premiums rise and available retail supply dwindles, there is still time. The opportunity in silver is huge.

 

 

Src: Stockmarkets.in

http://stocksmarket.in/commodities-bullion/2011/07/20/100oz-silver-is-now-a-conservative-target-luke-burgess/

12 August 2010

Morning calls



Hopes of rating upgrades woo funds to hotel stocks
Hotel stocks have not participated in the recent rally in mid- and small-cap stocks, but if brokers are to be believed, these stocks are due for a rerating in the near future. Dealers at institutional broking houses say that fund managers have been enquiring about key stocks in this sector after their quarterly numbers. Many hotels have seen a significant improvement in average room rates (ARRs), along with an increase in occupancy rates. The occupancy rates have improved to 65% in the first quarter for most hotels, compared to 50-52% for the corresponding quarter last year. A mutual fund, which shares its name with a zodiac sign, is said to be a big buyer in Indian Hotels in the past few trading sessions. On Wednesday, the stock closed at Rs 96.15 down nearly 1%. Analysts say that shares of hotel companies traditionally perform well during second and third quarters of the financial year, as tourist activity starts to pick up.  



Daily Market Outlook - Aug 12 2010

 

Daily Technical Report - Aug 12 2010

 

Daily Fundamental Report - Aug 12 2010

 

Tata Motors, Hindalco, IVRCL Infrastructure, Piramal Healthcare, Nagarjuna Constructions, GSPL, GAIL, India Economy

 

*****************************

Our Picks: (also try in Derivatives(or) FnO)

Buy GLAXO cmp 1958 : Buy Around 1922-1890 Levels. Short term Bounce Expected.

Buy Nagarjuna construction cmp 161 Buy Around 152-156 levels for a Short term bounce. 

Keep OWN stoploss in Above trades.

 

 

Src: ET, DP blog

 

 

 

05 August 2010

Stock Calls

 

MOSERBEAR – PLEASE KEEP EYES

 

 

DABUR INDIA – PLEASE KEEP CLOSE EYES .

 

05 Aug 2010 | 16:08
Options Open Interest Activity – Overall
 

 

05 Aug 2010 | 16:08
Q1FY11 Result Update
 
 
 
 
05 Aug 2010 | 13:08
Stock Analyzer
 
 
 
05 Aug 2010 | 14:08
India's largest fast moving consumer goods company
 
 
 
 
 
Src: HDFCSEC, Stocksbuddy Author
 
 

 

01 August 2010

Stock and Market views

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Sensex backtracks again
The Sensex had just begun to flap its wings to soar above the 18,200 barrier when it was checked abruptly by the RBI's policy rate hike. Earnings disappointments from some of the top-rung companies made the index retract further to close ...




STOCKS: Bajaj Auto: Buy
Investors with a one-to-two-year perspective can consider an investment in the Bajaj Auto stock. The company had a dream run in 2009-2010, aided by a demand revival after the slowdown of 2008. This performance has extended to the first quarter ...


STOCKS: Birla Corporation: Buy
Investors with a two- year perspective can consider investing in the stock of Birla Corporation, a cement manufacturer whose target markets are the northern, central and ...


STOCKS: Lanco Infratech: Buy
Investors with high risk appetite can consider fresh exposure to the stock of Lanco Infratech with a two-year investment horizon. The company plans to add 1888 MW of additional capacity, trebling its capacity in FY11 which will ...


IPOS: Bajaj Corp — IPO: Avoid
The Initial Public Offer (IPO) from Bajaj Corp may not be suitable for investors with a conservative risk profile. Though the company occupies a lucrative niche in the hair oil market, it relies heavily just on this one segment to drive ... 

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner: Consolidation in Kotak Mahindra Bank
Please advise me on the prospects of Kotak Mahindra Bank. Meru Ramana, ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling stocks: Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,198.1)
The Maruti Suzuki stock tumbled 12 per cent forming a downward gap on Monday following its Q1 results announcement. It reported a year-on-year drop in net profits due to higher royalty payments. Subsequently, the stock hovered around Rs 1,200 ...

28 July 2010

A guide to Forbes India 20 stocks portfolio



By: Pravin Palande, T Surendar/Forbes India
Around this time last year, Mumbai was still impatiently waiting for the arrival of the monsoons. It would have been the season’s best reprieve for anxious investors who were till then reeling under the heat of a global market meltdown. In retrospect though, it may have been the ideal starting point for Indian investors. 

20 stocks you must own


Exactly a year before now, in our first cover story on the markets, we had recommended that investors resume buying. We had recommended a portfolio of 20 stocks that would mirror an array of opportunities the Indian economy presented.
A year later, barring two companies, the portfolio has ended with positive returns. Three companies P&G, Page Industries and Pidilite have returned 100%. Five other stocks gained 70%.
On the whole, the Forbes India 20 portfolio was up 54%, compared to 45% of the mid-cap index (most of our recommendation was from this category). The broad market went up by 15% during the same time.
To be honest, there were enough easy pickings. Many companies were powering ahead before the global bust and yet, their valuations had fallen off the cliff. Almost all our stock picks had a strong domestic story that helped insulate them from the global instability.
But that was last year. Many Indian companies are now quickly reaching their pre-slump level in sales. Having scaled back expansion plans, they will soon churn out their full capacities, leaving little headroom for volume growth.
Investors have already guessed that Indian companies will continue to perform well, and lapped up stocks at prices that have already discounted the current financial year’s earnings.
Our considered opinion is that any investments in the stock market may not yield above-average returns in the next one year. 



Morning views



hakti Pumps losing steam as investors offload shares

Shares of Madhya Pradesh-based Shakti Pumps, manufacturer of submersible pumps and motors, have been weighed down by selling pressure in the past couple of sessions.

The stock, which fell 4.3% to Rs 285.50 on Tuesday, has fallen over 15% in the past couple of days after witnessing a sharp rally in the past few months on large volumes. Dealers tracking the counter say that some wealthy investors, who had loaded up the stock, are selling.

According to the market buzz, the company was rumoured to be close to bagging some large orders from the government. But in the absence of any such announcement, these investors dumped the stock. The stock clocked a high of Rs 340 last Friday.

Ferro Alloys in demand on stake sale buzz

Ferro Alloys Corporation has been in the thick of activity on bourses of late on talk some groups are in the race to buy a stake in the company.

Initially, the talk was that the promoters of Ferro Alloys’ were only interested in selling a minority stake. Subsequently, there was speculation that a majority stake sale was also being explored. However, differences over valuations between prospective buyers and the promoters have led to talks getting stalled.

Brokers said promoters are demanding at least Rs 50 per share, while the prospective buyers are not willing to pay that much, especially as the stock is currently trading at about Rs 31. Ferro Alloys officials were unavailable for comment on the matter. The stock has risen about 17% in the last six sessions.




 
 
 
 
 

26 July 2010

Technical calls for the Week

26 Jul 2010 | 08:07
Recommended Action for State Bank of India is Buy on dips & for Bharat Electronics, Wockhardt Ltd is...





25 July 2010

Market Outlook: RIL Result, RBI Meet eyed



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook: Action-packed week ahead
It was one of those rare weeks in which index movement went almost unnoticed. Changes in takeover code and new GST system hogged the headlines along with the first quarter earnings, keeping the attention of market participants riveted. The ...

STOCKS: BHEL: Buy
Investment Focus. Bharat Heavy Electrical's (BHEL's) strong footing in the power equipment space has not come under much threat despite domestic and foreign competition. Combined with a strong order book and robust financials, BHEL's earnings ...

PUBLIC OFFER: Engineers India — FPO: Invest
The high-end engineering, design and consulting business of Engineers India is not only unique but also lucrative given its presence in the hydrocarbon space. Earnings growth of 38 per cent compounded annually over the last three years, a ...

STOCKS: Sesa Goa: Book profits
Iron ore major Sesa Goa appears to be a risky play in the metals space considering the uncertain outlook on iron ore realisations and demand from the export market. The company's reliance on the Chinese market, where iron ore prices and ...

STOCKS: Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (India): Buy
Investors with an appetite for risk can consider investing in the stock of Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (India) at the current price of Rs 337. The stock, though at a high now, offers scope for gains in the medium term given the pace ...

IPOS: SKS Microfinance IPO: Invest
Investors with a high risk appetite can consider subscribing to the Initial Public Offer (IPO) of SKS Microfinance, one of the largest microfinance NBFCs .

23 July 2010

India to become a $5 trillion economy soon


AGPUR: US Consul General Paul Folmsbee on Friday said that the Indian economy has the potential to grow further and is likely to touch the $5 trillion mark in the near future.

"The Indian economy is growing fast and from the present $1.2 trillion, it is expected to become a $5-trillion economy very soon," Folmsbee, said without specifying a particular time frame while addressing management students at G S College of Commerce here.

The Consul General, who was in the city today for a seminar on 'Indo-US relations' also emphasised on the need for both countries to focus on vital issues like energy crisis, technology transfer, climate change, higher education and small as well as medium enterprises.

On the higher education scenario, particularly at the University level, Folmsbee said many US varsities were in the process of setting up their establishments in the country with Columbia University already establishing its institution in Mumbai.

On his first visit to the orange city, Folmsbee said he was here to study the issues of regional interest.









NEW DELHI: Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Steel may sell about 14 per cent stake to Japan's JFE for Rs 4,700 crore to cut the company's debt.

"Talks between the two companies for stake sale have more or less concluded. JSW Steel may sell around 14 per cent stake to JFE," a source in the know of the development said.

19 July 2010

Stock Picks from Various sources

19 Jul 2010 | 15:07
Recommended Action for Pantaloons Retail, Vijaya Bank & BRFL is Buy
 
 
 
19 Jul 2010 | 17:07
List of companies that have announced dividends for FY10
 
 
19 Jul 2010 | 11:07
MIL is amongst the few players in the organized segment of packaging industry
 
 
 
 
Src: HDFCSEc, Smartinvestor.in
 
 
 
 

18 July 2010

Stock Views 2


IDBI Bank

 

UTV Software Communications

 

Union Bank of India

 

Sun Pharma

 

Tata Consultancy Services

 

Stock and Market Views

Both the Nifty and the Sensex recorded 29-month highs last week. But there was not a single celebratory beep from the market. This cynical attitude is hardly surprising given the numerous attempts made by the benchmark to ‘break out' ...

Investors with a two-year horizon can buy the shares of Wipro, a leading software services and hardware player, given the revival in volumes (person-months billed) in its IT services business and strengthening domestic presence (IT products) ...

Investments with a one-two year time horizon can be considered in the stock of Punjab National Bank (PNB), as the bank despite its size, holds strong growth prospects. The overall pick-up in credit growth augurs well for PNB, which has ...

Disappointing results over several quarters and the sharp run-up in the stock of ABB after the announcement of an open offer, have resulted in the stock trading at very steep valuations, far higher than peers and not supported by ...

The stock of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), the government-controlled downstream oil refining and marketing major, has run up sharply since the fuel pricing reform measures late ...


Investors with a high appetite for risk and a two-three year perspective may buy the stock of Simplex Infrastructures, a diversified construction contractor. Our previous buys on this stock were at Rs 137 in January 2009 and at Rs 415 ...

Results so far have only managed to pleasantly surprise the markets. While there is no telling what the next week's result announcements would entail, trends in index option trading hint at a range-bound market. Most of the open interest ...


15 July 2010

Is it Possible????Dow Headed to 5000 -Charles Nenner Says



Get Out While You Can! Dow Headed to 5000, Charles Nenner Says

Posted Jul 15, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing
Enjoy the recent stock market rally while it lasts. Market forecaster Charles Nenner tells Tech Ticker stocks will peak in about a month and then head south for the year.
“After late August I expect the market to go down again,” and eventually test the March 2009 lows in the next few years, he says on the phone from Israel. Therefore, long-term investors would be wise to use this rally as an opportunity to get out of stocks. “I see this as a bear market rally,” he says comparing the U.S. market to Japan – a prolonged bear market with wild fluctuations.
Until the end of August, stocks will trade in a tight range, he predicts. His near term upside target is 1155 on the S&P 500, but that’s only if it first breaks 1100. If the market finds resistance and closes below 1085, it could spell trouble.
It’s worth paying attention to Nenner's warning. As Seeking Alpha contributor Cliff Wachtel points out, Nenner has a pretty good track record with his recent calls:
• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.
• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.
• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.
His advice for the average investor: “You don't want to get in the market,” he says. “For the next couple of years, just be happy if you don’t lose money.”
When will it be safe to go back in the water? Not until the market experiences a lot more pain, he forecasts. Don’t bet on stocks for the long haul, “until you get below 7000. And preferably if you wait till 5000, which is my downside target on the Dow Jones.”
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Other articles





Q1 Results:  http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Company/Earnings/earnings/75410.cms


Src:ET and Yahoo finance