08 May 2010

Mukesh Ambani wins family gas feud

Mukesh Ambani wins family gas feud

(FILE) In this picture taken on January 12, 2009, chairman of India's Reliance Industries Mukesh Ambani gestures as he speaks during the innauguration of the Vibrant Gujarat Investment Summit in Ahmedabad. The Supreme Court ruled in favour of billionaire Mukesh Ambani on May 7, 2010, in his dispute with his younger brother over a family agreement to divide the country's richest gas find, his lawyer said. (AFP)


More @ Mukesh Ambani wins family gas feud


Supreme Court favours RIL in gas dispute


NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: The Supreme Court has handed out an emphatic victory to Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries (RIL), ruling that it need not supply gas to a company owned by estranged brother Anil at a previously agreed price, putting the profitability of many power plants of the younger sibling under threat and tightening government control over gas pricing.

The ruling is a setback for Anil, chairman of the eponymous Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG), who wants to build more than 10,000 mw of power plants across the country using gas from RIL. But the ruling would help RIL avoid potential losses it might have incurred had it lost the case, forcing it to sell gas at a lower price of $2.34 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) mentioned in the family MoU that formed the basis of the division of RIL in 2005.

In 2007, the government set a price of $4.20 per mmBtu, prompting RIL to say it would not be able to sell at the 2005 price. In a conference call after the verdict, Anil Ambani said he would not file a review petition. The only whiff of a positive outcome for the ADAG chairman was the court’s direction that RIL and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) should begin negotiations for a fresh gas supply agreement within eight weeks.

The negotiations, to be initiated by RIL, should end within six weeks from the day the talks begin, the court ruled. Such an agreement would have to be in consonance with government policy, it said. The RNRL scrip crashed 23% while RIL rose in a falling market.

“We direct both the parties to renegotiate to sort out the differences, but within the government’s policy of Gas Utilisation Policy and the EGoM decisions,” said Chief Justice KG Balakrishnan and Justice P Sathasivam in their separate rulings. Another member of the bench, Judge B Sudershan Reddy, said the MoU was not relevant at all, though he too directed the brothers to negotiate again.

The ruling, at its core, strongly reaffirmed the government’s right to set gas prices and to decide on its allocation. It said government policy would prevail over private contracts such as the family settlement, a position that could adversely impact private investment in sectors like minerals where the government is heavily involved.

A mechanism is provided under the PSC between the government and the contractor (RIL, in the present case). The PSC shall over-ride any other contractual obligation between the contractor and any other party," said Justice Sathasivam, writing the majority verdict.

As the case has dragged on through various courts, the government has tightened its control over the sector, not only approving the price but also directing the producer of the gas as to who it should sell to. This has suited RIL in this particular case, though it remains to be seen if the state would be willing to raise prices in line with the international prices.

RIL stressed its fealty to government policies in a statement issued on Friday evening. "The judgement recognises the dominant role of the production sharing contract and has upheld the policies formulated by government under which it has the authority to regulate the production and distribution of natural gas... In view of the judgement, RIL can only sell at the price approved by the government and only to the entities who have been allocated gas under the Gas Utilisation policy," the statement said. One possible outcome of the SC ruling might mean that a similar agreement between state-run utility NTPC and RIL for gas is also under a cloud after the verdict, though the circumstances of that case are somewhat different. NTPC lost nearly 1% to close at Rs 201.65.

Doubts over negotiations

In the post-verdict conference call, the younger Ambani was characteristically pugnacious seizing on some of the court’s observations on the need for a new gas supply agreement.

"The...court has also directed that suitable arrangements for gas supply should not only be suitable for RIL but also the shareholders of RNRL..(we) look forward to ..secure gas supply for the Group’s power plants in line with the Supreme Court order," Mr Ambani said.

But the ground rules for tweaking the MoU is far from clear and could set the stage for further legal tussles, belying hopes of RIL’s lawyer Harish Salve that the ruling from India’s highest court would encourage the warring brothers to put their bitter and seemingly unending feud behind them. "Price of gas has been upheld at $4.20 and there isn’t any change in that. Within that framework, the court has asked the two parties to renegotiate," said Mr Salve, the legal heavyweight who shepherded RIL’s case to a successful conclusion.

But a senior ADAG official said the price of $4.20 was applicable for a five-year period between 2007 and 2012. "Any power plant that we build will come up after that, so the price of $4.20 has no relevance for us," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. "The government would have to eventually fix the price and it is certainly won’t be in a hurry to do so given that our gas-fired power plants are years away."

"RIL will renegotiate the gas supply agreements with RNRL in the manner and within the timeframe stipulated by the court. While the MoU may be kept in mind during the process of renegotiation, it is clearly held that the MoU is not binding," the statement from RIL said.

RIL gains, ADAG stocks crash

The Supreme Court ruling, though a victory for Mukesh Ambani, will not bring much additional monetary benefit for RIL, where investors had already factored in the $4.2-a-unit pricing for all the 80 mmscmd gas from the KG basin. Even in the worst case scenario, it might have had to supply ADAG companies only after 3-4 years when they begin operations.

RIL shares gained 2% to close at Rs 1,033.85 on Friday in a falling market, which sank with the rest of the globe due to the European crisis.

"Cash flows would (have been) negatively impacted by $700 million annually for selling 28 mmscmd of gas at $2.34/mmBtu as against $4.20 per mmBtu," Ambit Capital said in a note to investors.

RIL and its partner in the field, Niko Resources, are forecast to earn $10.63 billion in sales from the gas field. The government may earn $16.57 billion as its share of revenues from the KG-D6 field.

Shares of RNRL and Reliance Power run by Anil crashed as investors began to count the danger of owning stocks without much business. Both the companies’ fortunes were partly tied to the gas supply from RIL.

RNRL crashed 23% to Rs 53 and Reliance Power, which has the record of the biggest initial public offer in the country, tumbled 9% to Rs 140. The stock has lost 69% from its IPO price, adjusted for splits.

Reliance Power planned to build nearly 25,000 mw of power based on the assumptions that it may get gas from RIL at the agreed price. The biggest of them was at Dadri in Uttar Pradesh. In the conference call, though, Anil Ambani reiterated that he was committed to building 8,000 mw of capacity fired by gas, but he did not elaborate.

The ruling could also lead to a bigger blow to RNRL, the company that was supposed to get the gas and trade on it if SC had upheld the lower court ruling. While a favourable ruling would have given it a profit of Rs 3,000 crore a year, the absence of it makes it a near shell company with just some under-developed coal bed methane blocks and petroleum exploration licences.

There are no significant operations in both the segments to forecast revenues or profits, so there are no analyst forecasts.

The ruling dents, at least to some extent, hopes of Anil Ambani to establish a business empire comparable to his brother with power generation at the heart of it. When the brothers split with an agreement brokered by their mother Kokilaben Ambani in 2005, it was agreed that a specified amount of gas would be supplied to the younger Ambani at a particular price for his power plants. Subsequently, Mukesh’s RIL said it will not be able to do so given its agreement with the government on sharing of gas with the government. The matter was then taken to court.

Reliance Industries, the nation’s most valuable company, operates the biggest gas reserves in the Krishna-Godavari basin off the coast of Andhra Pradesh. The field known as KG-D6 has the peak capacity to produce 80 mmscmd. While RIL operates the field, the government decides the price and the quantity to be sold to various customers is laid down in the production sharing agreement. The gas was discovered before the split was formalised.


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RIL wins it for market, helps avert a crash




Src: Economictimes, DP blog and Business-standard

06 May 2010

RIL, RNRL shares to remain in focus on Friday

RIL, RNRL shares to remain in focus on Friday


MUMBAI: Shares of Reliance Industries and Reliance Natural Resource Ltd (RNRL) will remain in focus tomorrow as the Supreme Court is likely to deliver its verdict on gas pricing and supply dispute between the two companies, say analysts.

Marketmen said Reliance Industries and RNRL stocks, which saw profit booking today, are likely to affect investor sentiment and the movement of the market tomorrow.

"The market is keenly awaiting the judgement of RIL-RNRL case and the verdict would have significant impact on investor sentiments. Both the stocks would be in the focus," Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Research Head Alex Mathews said.

"Once the decision is out it will be good for the market, whichever way the verdict goes, as it will remove the uncertainty," Purpleline Investment Advisors Director & CEO P K Agarwal said.

Shares of RIL today closed nearly one per cent down at Rs 1,010.90, while RNRL shares fell marginally to Rs 68.35 on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

"The Supreme Court's verdict would certainly have impact on the movement of the market. RIL, being a heavyweight stock, would guide the movement in the key indices," Bonanza Portfolio Assistant VP (Research-Equity) Avinash Gupta said.

The dispute between Reliance Industries and RNRL, the companies led by billionaire brothers Mukesh Ambani and Anil Ambani, is over supply of 28 million cubic meter of gas a day to RNRL by RIL.


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RNRL is seeking gas from RIL's KG-D6 gas fields at USD 2.34 per mmBtu, 44 per cent lower than the government set price, for its proposed 7,800 MW power plant at Dadri.

While, RIL's contention is that it cannot sell gas at a price less than USD 4.20 per mmBtu as set by the government and to customers other than those identified in accordance with the Gas Utilisation Policy (GUP).



SC judgement on RIL-RNRL gas dispute on Friday



NEW DELHI: The Supreme Court will deliver tomorrow its verdict on the gas pricing and supply dispute between energy companies RIL and RNRL. ( Watch )

A three-judge bench headed by Chief Justice K G Balakrishnan, who will be demitting office on May 11, had reserved its judgement in the lawsuit after arguments concluded on December 18.

The dispute between Reliance Industries (RIL) and Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL), the companies led by billionaire brothers Mukesh Ambani and Anil Ambani, is over supply of 28 million cubic meter of gas a day to RNRL by RIL.

RNRL is seeking gas from RIL's KG-D6 gas fields at $2.34 per mmBtu, 44 per cent lower than the government set price, for its proposed 7,800 MW power plant at Dadri.

RIL's contention is that it cannot sell gas at a price less than $4.20 per mmBtu as set by the government and to customers other than those identified in accordance with the Gas Utilisation Policy (GUP).


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The Bombay High Court had last year upheld RNRL's claim for gas as made out in a family agreement that split the Reliance business empire between the two brothers.

The Apex court heard the case for 26 days since October 20. It also witnessed the recusal of Justice R V Raveendran from the Bench after hearing the matter for six days on the ground that he held shares of both RIL and RNRL.




Src: Economictimes

RIL-RNRL: What SC verdict could mean for investors

RIL-RNRL: What SC verdict could mean for investors


MUMBAI: Share prices of Reliance Industries (RIL) and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) have reacted sharply ever since reports of Supreme Court's early verdict on the KG 6 basin gas dispute surfaced. According to marketmen, the apex court may pass judgment in favour of RNRL. The verdict is likely to have some sentimental impact on the stock market, as RIL is an index heavyweight.

Analysts are not expecting a major correction in RIL even if it loses the case whereas RNRL is expected to react sharply.

"If RNRL loses the case then it will only concern the company shareholders or bear a negative sentimental impact on ADAG group shares. But if the verdict is against index-heavyweight Reliance Industries, it can have a negative impact on the market. RIL may correct up to 5 per cent and move sideways for next few sessions," said DD Sharma, senior vice-president, equity, Anand Rathi.

"RNRL will turn volatile and move sharply in either direction once the judgment is out. If it wins the case then it may move 25-30 per cent on the upside. But if it loses the case then it will fall more than 50 per cent," Sharma added.

Siddarth Bhamre, Head – Derivatives & Investment Advisory at Angel Broking, is of the view that traders should avoid trading in futures as volatility in the RNRL stock will increase tremendously. He suggests taking positions ahead of the verdict.


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"If RNRL loses the case then there will be fundamental downside for the stock. Speculative traders can buy put options in case they expect the company to lose the case. If they expect RNRL to win the case then buy 70 call option," Bhamre added.

RIL and RNRL have been fighting a legal battle over the supply of 28 million units of gas for the next 17 years at $2.34 per unit to RNRL from the gas fields of Krishna-Godavari basin, which had been awarded to Mukesh Ambani's RIL as part of the New Exploration or Licensing Policy (NELP).

"We note that a decision on the ongoing RIL-RNRL gas case dispute in the apex court is expected soon. We would highlight that our base-case fair value of Rs 1,220 on factors (a) gas sales of 28mmscmd to RNRL at $2.3/mmbtu starting FY13E (b) Profit Petroleum (PP) calculation at $2.3/mmbtu.

Hence, our fair value would be at risk to the tune of Rs 48 (4% of TP) if the PP calculation for the disputed quantity is decided at $4.2/mmbtu. A favourable verdict would imply Rs 35 upside to our fair value," said Ambit Capital in a research note after Reliance Industries reported fourth quarter results. The brokerage has a ‘Buy' rating on the stock with target price of Rs 1220 per share.

In the past one-week, shares of Reliance Industries have fallen around 4 per cent while those of Reliance Natural Resources have galloped around 10 per cent. The shares are witnessing sideways movement ahead of the verdict.

At 11:20 am on NSE, shares of RNRL were up 0.29 per cent at Rs 68.70 whereas Reliance Industries was at Rs 1018.20, down 0.24 per cent.



What are the Ambanis fighting for? | The gas row


RIL-RNRL verdict: 2 derivatives strategies to play the stocks



Src: Economictimes.

Asia shares to drop on Greek woes

Asia shares to drop on Greek woes


WELLINGTON: Asian stocks are set to slide on Thursday, as ongoing fears that Greece's debt woes could spread to larger euro zone nations hit global markets.

The main US indices were between 0.6 per cent and 0.9 per cent lower, with resources and industrial stocks the hardest hit, as investors feared possible contagion from the Greek crisis could damage global growth.

The euro hit a 14-month low against the U.S. dollar and traditional safe havens such as the yen and US Treasuries gained as anxious investors eyed heavily indebted Spain and Portugal, while violent protests against austerity measures rocked Greece.

British and Europen shares fell by as much as 1.3 per cent, as banks continued to suffer, with rating agency Moody's saying it was reviewing Portugal's rating for a possible downgrade.

Asian stocks listed on Wall Street fell 0.8 per cent, while MSCI's measure of Asia Pacific stocks excluding Japan was 1.9 per cent lower.

Japanese markets will be open for the first time this week after being closed for the "golden week" series of public holidays.

Japanese shares look likely to match the sharp losses seen on global equity markets over the past few days, with Nikkei futures traded in Chicago 380 points below the last closing level in Osaka.

Australian shares are also set to open lower, with share price index futures down 54 points to 4,637, a 37 point discount to the underlying S&P/ASX 200 index close on Wednesday.

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Heard on the Street


Godrej Consumer zooms 9% on fund talk
Shares of Godrej Consumer surged 9% to close at Rs 307.90 on Wednesday, defying the bearish trend in the broader market. According to grapevine, the company is looking to raise between Rs 600-1,000 crore by way of a qualified institutional placement (QIP) to part finance likely acquisitions in the future, including the purchase of Sara Lee’s stake in its joint venture. Analysts tracking the company say Godrej Consumer may also acquire a hair colour firm in Latin America shortly.

A highly placed official of the Godrej Group is learnt to have been in Singapore recently to meet some foreign institutional investors and appraise them of the company’s plans for the recent acquisitions (one in Indonesia and the other in Nigeria). Buzz is that Godrej Consumer may be able to sell shares to institutional investors at a slight premium to the market price. This is in contrast to most qualified institutional placements by companies in recent times, which had to be deferred till the stock price cooled down to levels that were palatable to fund managers.

On the BSE, 3.68 lakh shares on Godrej Consumer were traded, compared to its two-week daily average volume of 1.27 lakh shares. A fund manager with a sizeable stake in the company said the stock was not exactly cheap at current levels. “The robust earnings growth in 2009-10 was helped to a significant extent by favourable raw material prices. The growth rate for this year will be healthy, but not as strong as it was last year,” the fund manager said. He added that investors will be closely watching the company’s strategies to maximise gains from its recent acquisitions. That will be the deciding factor in the stock getting re-rated hereon, he said.


Friendly circles’ stock up RIL ahead of SC verdict
Reliance Industries shares saw good amount of buying interest at lower levels on Wednesday. The stock fell to an intra-day low of Rs 1,000, but climbed to Rs 1,020.75 at close, flat over the previous close. Dealers tracking the counter said the rebound was driven by support from “friendly circles”. Fund managers are awaiting the Supreme Court verdict on the gas dispute before taking a call on the stock, brokers said.

While foreign funds were heavy sellers, domestic fund managers used the declines in many other stocks to take up fresh positions or add to the existing positions, they said. Buzz is that there was good demand for shares of JSW Steel and Jindal Steel and Power. The Big Daddy of domestic institutions, a foreign fund that has trouble getting sleep, and a private insurer ‘Fun Life’ are said to have together picked up close to 10-12 lakh shares of JSW Steel. Also, the Big Daddy is learnt to have picked up around 5 lakh shares of Jindal Steel and Power.

South Indian Bank recovers from audit scare
SOUTH Indian Bank shares stabilised on Wednesday after crashing nearly 14% in the past couple of sessions. The fall was triggered after the bank said that it missed recording the interest expense on a special deposit scheme due to an accounting error. This dragged down the bank’s profits in the last quarter as the excess earnings for the first nine months had to be adjusted.

The move prompted some analysts to downgrade the stock. When contacted, VA Joseph, managing director and chief executive said: “The scheme was not linked to our IT system. This has been accounted at the end of the year now and steps have been taken to see that this does not recur.” But analysts are wondering how an error of such magnitude missed the attention of the bank and its auditors for three quarters.

Contributed by Santosh Nair

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Src: Economictimes, DP blog

05 May 2010

Wall St slips on European debt worries; Dow down 225 pts

Wall St slips on European debt worries; Dow down 225 pts


n the US markets it was the worst percentage slide since February & has put the S&P 500 at a one month low and just above its 50-day moving average.

Volatility spiked to more than a two-month high as a result. The CBOE volatility index spiked more than 20% to about 24.

Stocks were under pressure for the entire session on worries that the European debt crisis will spread. The market was buzzing with a fresh round of speculation that Spain might be next to need a bailout.




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At closing bell, the Dow shed 225.06, or 2%, to close at 10,926.77. The S&P 500 fell 2.4%, while the Nasdaq lost 3 percent.

Investors shrugged off a pair of encouraging US economic reports. Pending-home sales rose 5.3% in March, slightly better than expected, while factory orders jumped 1.3% in March, significantly better than the 0.1-percent drop expected.

European stocks erased their 2010 gain on concerns that Greece's debt crisis will spread through the region. The sovereign debt concerns led that caused Greece's Athex Composite to fall 6.7%, Spain's ibex to drop 5.4%. Portugal's general index gave up 3.8%.

The dollar hit a one-year high against the euro as investors worried that Greece may not pull off its austerity measures and that debt problems could spread to other countries.

Strength in the dollar and a sour tone in the stock market led to an over 2% drop in the CRB commodity index, its worst loss in three months.

Oil was one of the weakest commodities as it recorded its largest single-session loss in nearly three months. June contracts cracked 4% to USD 82.74 per barrel.

Gold was also lower after it gave up an early gain. The yellow metal slipped over a percent. The base metal slump continues with copper down to 7000 dollar per tonne levels.


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Daily News Roundup - May 5 2010


Worldly worries


Ambuja Cements


BGR Energy Systems


HDFC


Cadila Healthcare


Reliance Capital


Madhucon Projects


Infosys Technologies


Phoenix Mills


Cairn India


GVK Power and Infrastructure


Indiabulls RealEstate


Maharashtra Seamless


JSW Steel




Src: ET and DP blog and Moneycontrol.com

04 May 2010

Europe debt fears hit mkts, Euro at year low

Europe debt fears hit mkts, Euro at year low


LONDON: European equities dived and the euro hit a new one-year dollar low on Tuesday, failing to win support after eurozone finance ministers agreed a 110-billion-euro (145-billion-dollar) Greek bailout.

In late morning deals, the London stock market slid 1.51 percent, Paris lost 2.04 percent and Frankfurt shed 1.36 percent. Elsewhere, Madrid tumbled 3.26 percent and Athens slumped by 3.71 percent.

In foreign exchange trade, the European single currency nosedived to 1.3088 dollars on Tuesday, plumbing the lowest level since April 28, 2009.

"Markets do not seem greatly impressed by the launch of the Greek rescue plan," said Unicredit analyst Marco Annunziata.

"The 110-billion-euro program... barely met expectations, without generating any positive surprise, and this probably helps explain the lukewarm reaction."

Over the weekend, eurozone finance chiefs approved an unprecedented three-year package of loans for Greece, struggling to shake off a crippling debt and deficit burden.

"The EU/IMF bailout of Greece provides enough funding for the next 12 months or so," said VTB Capital economist Neil MacKinnon.


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"However, the ability and willingness to bail out another eurozone fiscal miscreant is politically difficult," he added, hinting at other fiscally-challenged nations like Ireland, Spain and Portugal.

Of the 110 billion euros (145 billion dollars) to be made available to Greece, the eurozone would provide 80 billion and the International Monetary Fund 30 billion.

And in a policy U-turn, the European Central Bank agreed to accept Greece's junk-rated government bonds as collateral for loans.

In return, the Greek Socialist government will have to impose harsh austerity measures, as it seeks to slash its public deficit from nearly 14.0 percent of output last year to less than 3.0 percent by the end of 2014.

"The ECB's decision to suspend minimum collateral requirements for Greek bonds helps alleviate an imminent banking crisis but the ECB might find they end up doing this for other 'club Med' bonds," added MacKinnon.

More @ http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/Europe-debt-fears-hit-markets-Euro-at-year-low-against-dollar/articleshow/5890251.cms


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Src: EConomictimes

China may 'crash' in 9-12 months: Marc Faber

China may 'crash' in 9-12 months: Marc Faber


SINGAPORE: Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.

The Shanghai Composite Index has failed to regain its 2009 high while industrial commodities and shares of Australian resource exporters are acting “heavy”, Faber said. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai last week is “not a particularly good omen”, he said, citing a property bust and depression that followed the 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna.

“The market is telling you that something is not quite right,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong on Monday.

“The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.”


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An index tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong dropped 1.8% on Monday, the most in two weeks, after the central bank raised reserve requirements for the third time this year.

The Shanghai Composite has slumped 12% this year, Asia’s worst performer, as policy makers seek to rein in a lending boom that’s spurred record gains in property prices. China’s markets are shut for a holiday on Monday.

Copper touched a seven-week low and BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, fell the most since February on concern spending in the world’s third-largest economy will slow and after Australia boosted taxes on commodities producers. Rio Tinto, the third-largest, slid as much as 6 %.

Chanos, Rogoff

Faber joins hedge fund manager Jim Chanos and Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a crash in China. China is “on a treadmill to hell” because it’s hooked on property development for driving growth, Chanos said in an interview last month.

As much as 60% of the country’s gross domestic product relies on construction, he said. Rogoff said in February a debt-fuelled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade.


More @ http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/China-may-crash-in-next-9-12-months-Marc-Faber/articleshow/5887630.cms





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Heard on the Street: Tata Motors skids as US hedge offloads shares


Domestic fund goes ga-ga over Graphite India

An aggressive fund manager of a large domestic fund house is going bananas over Graphite India, a manufacturer of graphite electrodes.

According to the grapevine, this fund manager has bought a sizeable chunk of the stock recently, as he is betting on better prospects for the industry. On Monday, the stock, which has risen 16% in a month, closed at Rs 102, down almost 1% from the previous close.

According to analysts, growth of graphite electrodes, a key input in steel production through the electric arc furnace (EAF) route, will increase rapidly compared to EAF steel production in the next couple of years as steel manufacturers are stocking up graphite electrode inventory.

Further, the company is also expected to reap strong labour cost advantages as compared to its peers in the developed markets.

Tata Motors skids as US hedge offloads shares

Shares of Tata Motors snapped a three-day winning rally on Monday, ending at Rs 855.55, down almost 2%. According to the grapevine, a US-based hedge fund, whose Asia operations are run by a maverick fund manager, has offloaded a portion of their holding it had accumulated recently.

Brokers said the fund booked profits partly after the stock rose 6% last week compared to Sensex’s drop of 0.5%. The stock’s trating, which was a sell at most brokerages till recently, has been upgraded to a buy due to improvement in operations of Jaguar and Land Rover, which has been the cause of concern for most investors.

(Contributed by Apurv Gupta)

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Daily News Roundup - May 4 2010


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Src: Economictimes, DP blog and etc

02 May 2010

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Investors with a long-term horizon can subscribe to the initial public offering from the hydro power generation company, Satluj Jal Vidyut ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals
RIL moved in line with our expectation, reversing lower from the intra-week peak of Rs 1,092 to achieve our short-term target of Rs 1,025. A short-term down-trend is currently in progress from the April 7 peak. Third wave of this move has ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner: RNRL trading above critical support
I am holding Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) purchased at Rs 85. Please advise the long and medium-term outlook for this company. Rahul Gupta, Kumbesh, C. Mohandass, ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling Stocks: Cholamandalam DBS Finance (Rs 125.3)
Cholamandalam DBS Finance began the week on a relatively sedate note at Rs 101. The fireworks came much later, on Thursday when the stock closed 16 per cent higher. The rally continued on Friday to take the stock to the intra-week peak of ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Stock Strategy: Consider shorting Apollo Tyres, Bharti Airtel
Apollo Tyres (Rs 70): After hitting its all-time high at Rs 82.5 in April earlier, the stock has been witnessing a steady decline in price. The stock faces major support at Rs 47 and resistance at Rs 76. Only a close above Rs 76 would change ...


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Src: Economictimes, Businessline, DP blog and Valuenotes etc



29 April 2010

2200 firms may go MNC way by 2024: PwC

2,200 firms may go MNC way by 2024: PwC


EW DELHI: India may overtake China as the largest source of new MNCs from the emerging markets, with over 2,200 domestic firms forecast to open overseas operations over the next 15 years, says a PricewaterhouseCoopers report.

According to the report titled the Emerging Multinationals, the competitive landscape is set to be transformed over the next decade as Indian and Chinese multinationals lead the way in seeking new markets outside their home markets.

"India is expected to produce the most new multinational companies, overtaking China as the emerging world's largest source of new multinationals. Over 2,200 domestic companies are projected to open operations outside over the next 15 years (between 2010 and 2024)," the report says.

Driven by the rapid pace of globalisation and revolution in information and communications technologies, the number of companies from the emerging markets choosing to set up operations abroad has increased in the past five years.

The report suggests this trend is expected to continue over the next 15 years, as new multinationals from emerging economies rise in prominence on the global economic stage.


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"It is encouraging to know that India will replace China as the largest source of new MNCs in the emerging world from 2018 onwards. The key drivers for this are the relative increase in both investment intensity as well as openness that the domestic economy offers," PwC India leader for markets and industries Jairaj Purandare said.

India and China would also be joined by an array of companies from Singapore, Russia, Malaysia and South Korea in terms of setting up MNCs.

According to the report, some of these new MNCs would become international powerhouses and would require services all over the world; for example, to support their IT and telecom networks.

PwC report says more and more new MNS are moving straight into the developed economies as opposed to setting up their first foreign operation in a neighbouring emerging market.

The global consultancy major used econometric techniques to project the number of new multinationals arising from a sample of 15 emerging economies over the next 15 years.

The countries analysed are --Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Hungary, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Ukraine and Vietnam.

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As Greece falters, fears stretch around the world

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NSE revises lot sizes of F&O scrips w.e.f. Apr 30



NSE revises lot sizes of F&O scrips with effect from April 30, 2010.

SEBI had advised exchange to standardize lot size for derivative contracts on individual securities once in every 6 months as per circular no. SEBI/DNPD/Cir- 50/2010 dated January 8, 2010. In pursuance to the revised methodology mentioned in the SEBI circular, NSE proposed to carry out revision of market lot for derivatives contracts.

For full list of revised lot sizes, click here...



Src: ET and Moneycontrol

Ripple effect on D-St as EU crisis spreads

Ripple effect on D-St as EU crisis spreads


contagion seems to be spreading fast across Europe. Ratings major Standard & Poor’s (S&P) on Wednesday cut its ratings on Spain by one notch to AA from AA-plus.

Earlier in the day, Indian shares joined the worldwide slide in equities and commodities, after S&P had lowered Greece’s debt rating to junk and that of Portugal by two notches on Tuesday.

Brokers and fund managers said the outlook on India’s economy and corporate earnings remained upbeat, notwithstanding the latest upheavals in Europe. But the flow of foreign money into the stock markets could be affected as global investors booked profits in emerging markets like India, to offset losses in other parts of the world, they said.

“The developments in Europe are unlikely to hurt the earnings potential of Indian companies, but investors may question the price-to-earning multiple of (Indian) equities,” said Kenneth Andrade, head-investments, IDFC SSKI Asset Management.


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Indian shares are trading 16-17 times estimated earnings for the current financial year, and most investment managers say they are neither cheap nor too expensive.

BSE’s 30-share Sensex shed 310.54 points, or 1.8%, to close at 17,380.08. The 50-share Nifty crashed 92.90 points to close at 5,215.45. Key markets in Asia ended 1-2% down, and European markets too declined 1-2%.

“While valuations in India are not too stretched, in the immediate term, we remain anxious about the global risk trade unwinding,” said Keshav Sanghi, MD and head of equities, Citigroup Global Markets, India. Bond prices moved up a little and traders expect that the 10-year government paper to be auctioned on Friday will have a yield of below 8%.

Provisional data on the stock exchanges showed foreign funds were not heavy sellers even as many second-line shares fell sharply. Overseas investors net sold Rs 131 crore of shares while domestic institutions bought Rs 324 crore of shares on a net basis. So far in 2010, foreign funds have net bought $6 billion of Indian shares.

Market players expect more volatility on Thursday because of the expiry of derivatives contracts. If the downtrend persists, many traders holding long positions may choose not to carry them forward.

“Emerging markets in Asia have not yet seen a knock-on contagion impact on account of Greece and Portugal and retraced less than Brazil or Mexico today,” Mr Sanghi said. “I believe that there are quite a few macro international variables that still need resolution and the market is in a wait-and-watch mode near term,” Mr Sanghi added.

In the global markets, yields on Greek two-year debt soared to a record 26% and the euro hovered around near a one-year low against the dollar as investors worried that the sovereign debt crisis in parts of Europe may soon spread to markets as well.

Shares of metal, oil and gas, and realty companies were the worst affected, with the respective sectoral indices on BSE falling 2-3%. Shares of FMCG and healthcare companies closed flat to slightly lower, as investors moved a part of their money to defensive stocks.

“The problems of Greece do not have any direct implications for India,” said Vikram Kotak, chief investment officer, Birla Sun Life Insurance.

“But the big worry is a series of bad news—interest rate hike, inflation, high valuations, spate of share offerings—hitting all at once. We see the Sensex moving in a range of 14,000-18,000 over the next few months. But at the moment, a correction appears more likely,” said Mr Kotak.

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Src: ET and DP blog

28 April 2010

RNRL gains on hopes of early SC verdict in gas case | Citi downgrades RIL

RNRL gains on hopes of early SC verdict in gas case | Citi downgrades RIL


Shares of Anil Ambani owned Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) and Reliance Power gained momentum after media reports that the Supreme Court may announce verdict in RIL-RNRL gas dispute case in a week’s time.

It has been reported that the Chief Justice of India KG Balakrishnan, who is leading the 3-member Supreme Court bench on the gas dispute case, will retire on May 11.

At 10:35 am, shares of RNRL were at Rs 66.70, up 7.06 per cent or Rs 4.40 on the BSE. It touched a high of Rs 67.85 and low of Rs 61.50.

Reliance Power was up 1.30 per cent or Rs 2.05 at Rs 159.95. It touched a high of Rs 161.65 and low of Rs 155.20.

Meanwhile, share of Reliance Industries continued its downtrend after disappointing quarterly results. The scrip was down 2.26 per cent at Rs 1037.25 on the NSE.

RIL and RNRL has been fighting a legal battle over the supply of 28 million units of gas for 17 years at $2.34 per unit to RNRL from the gas fields of Krishna-Godavari basin, which had been awarded to Mukesh Ambani’s RIL as part of the New Exploration or Licensing Policy (NELP).

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Reliance Industries discovers more oil in Cambay basin



MUMBAI: Energy major Reliance Industries has discovered more oil on India's western coast, raising the potential of the exploratory blocks it has been drilling, the company said on Wednesday.

India's biggest conglomerate whose businesses span petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration and retail said the current flow was at 300 barrels of oil per day (bopd) at the onland exploratory block in the Cambay basin in Gujarat state.

The potential commercial interest of the discovery is being evaluated through more data gathering and analysis, it said in a statement. "The discovery is significant as this play fairway is expected to open more oil pool areas leading to better hydrocarbon potential within the block," it said.

Reliance holds 100 per cent participating interest in the block, and three earlier discoveries had a flow rate of 500 bopd. The company has so far drilled 14 exploratory wells in the block that covers an area of 635 square kilometres.

Last year Reliance, controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, started pumping gas from its block in the vast Krishna Godavari (KG) basin off India's east coast, where it made the country's largest gas find. It has been producing 60 million standard cubic metres a day (mmscmd) of gas from the block.


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At peak output of 80 million mmscmd it could nearly double India's gas output. Reliance also produces oil from its D6 block in the KG basin, and holds a stake in the Panna, Mukta and Tapti oil and gas fields off India's west coast.

The company, which owns the world's largest refining complex in Gujarat, earlier this month agreed to pay $1.7 billion to form a joint venture with Atlas Energy at one of the most promising natural gas deposit regions in the United States.

At 0745 GMT, shares in Reliance shares, which has a market value of $78 billion, were trading down 2.6 per cent at 1,033.80 rupees in a Mumbai market down 0.85 per cent.

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Markets nosedive as Greece concerns loom




Src:Economictimes.indiatimes

Global mkts in a tizzy as S&P junks Greece

Global mkts in a tizzy as S&P junks Greece


MUMBAI: Stocks, bonds, crude oil and commodities tumbled as investors feared a wave of sovereign debt crisis, similar to the 1997 Asian crisis, after Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s rating to junk and lowered Portugal two notches. Safe haven gold rose.

Investors fear the downgrade of these two nations may be the beginning of a series of such moves as most governments are burdened with debt after they spent their way out of recession following the credit crisis. Even the US is under threat of losing its top rating.

“The biggest risk now is that the market speculates against every single indebted peripheral country, and that could lead to a sovereign debt crisis,” Axel Botte, a strategist at AXA Investment Managers in Paris, told Bloomberg News. “The contagion risk is real. It’s much easier to bail out a bank than to bail out a country.”


The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 3.1% in New York, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.6%, crude oil sank 2.4%, while copper plunged 4.3%. ADRs of ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank crashed. Gold rose 0.7%, or $8, to $1161.57 an ounce.

Standard & Poor’s cut Greece three levels to BB+, or junk, and lowered Portugal two steps to A- as they stare at a default. Greek notes slid earlier as concern deepened that the nation will ask investors to accept delayed or reduced debt payments.

The European Union, which had pledged to support Greece, has been dragging its feet on the conditionalities to extend a bailout. Emerging markets could be the worst-hit in a sovereign crisis as global investors pull out funds in a flight to safety.

Global investors could sell developing market stocks and bonds, and buy US treasuries or German bonds which are considered the safest. The cost of borrowing for both companies and countries are set to rise.

“We could see another wave of forced deleveraging, which could obviously affect any high-yielding assets, including emerging-markets debt,” Luis Costa, an emerging markets strategist at Citigroup, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.

The average spread for emerging-market bonds over the US treasury climbed 18 basis points to 261 basis points, the largest increase since February.

A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.7% and Brazil’s Bovespa index tumbled 2.4%. The Shanghai Composite Index sank 2.1% earlier to a six-month low, the most since February 5.

“We’re entering a phase of blind panic,” said Orlando Green, an interest-rate strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in London. “Given the inaction of the euro nations to back Greece and to get things done quickly, we’ve found now this inaction has been a big obstacle. That’s not satisfying for the markets, and not for S&P either; hence, the downgrade.”



Related News:

Wall St slips on Greece, Portugal rating downgrade


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Src: ET and Moneycontrol and DP blog etc

26 April 2010

Reliance Q4 Results

Reliance Q4 net rises; refining margins drag

Energy major Reliance Industries posted a 30% rise in quarterly profit but lagged estimates as lower-than-expected refining margins offset gains from higher gas output off India's east coast.

India's largest listed conglomerate, controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, has been scouting for acquisitions overseas, and progress on that front will determine its outlook.

"We continue to seek growth opportunities within India and globally to accelerate further value creation," Ambani said in a statement.

Reliance, with interests in petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration, and retail, posted January-March net profit of Rs 4710 crore (USD 1.1 billion) versus Rs 3630 crore a year earlier.

The year-ago results were restated to include figures from Reliance Petroleum, which it absorbed last year.

A Reuters poll had forecast quarterly net profit of Rs 5190 crore.

Margins at Reliance's flagship refining business stood at USD 7.5 a barrel for the quarter, but lagged market estimates of USD 8.3 a barrel. Analysts expect margins to rise as the global economy recovers.

The company recently said it would pay USD 1.7 billion to form a joint venture with Atlas Energy at one of the most promising natural gas deposit regions in the United States.

The outcome of a long-running gas dispute with Reliance Natural, led by Mukesh's younger brother Anil, will also have a bearing on the company's outlook.

Reliance is unable to hit peak gas production of 80 million standard cubic metres a day (mmscmd) at its D6 block in the vast Krishna Godavari basin in the Bay of Bengal due to customers not buying allocated volumes, and a lack of pipelines.

But analysts say current production of 60 mmscmd is still enough to boost results. Reliance began pumping gas from the block in April last year.

Shares in Reliance, India's biggest listed firm with a market value of about USD 78 billion, have dropped 8% in the past two weeks, while the broader Mumbai market is down 2.6%.


RIL Q4 nos disappoints street, but experts are not worried



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Src: Moneycontrol.com