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17 July 2008
Sensex 556 pts up, Inflation Stays at 11.91
The annual inflation rate climbed to 11.91 per cent for the first time in more than 13 years in early July, driven by higher costs of commodities and strong demand in the economy. This is a quarter per cent jump week on week. The fuel, power and light were up 0.9 per cent while primary articles were down 0.1 per cent. Fruit and vegetable prices were down 1 per cent with other food articles seeing a 0.2 per cent dip. It would be the 22nd consecutive week that the inflation rate has been above 5.5 per cent, the central bank's target for the end of the fiscal year in March 2009.
According to a research report by Standard & Poor's, world CPI inflation - which was 2.4 per cent in 2002 - rose to 3.3 per cent in 2007 and is now projected to hover around 5.2 per cent in 2008. Region-wise, CPI inflation is projected to remain 3.4 per cent this year in European Union and 3.2 per cent in Eurozone. In 2002, the inflation figures were 2.1 per cent for both the regions. Likewise, CPI inflation is projected to remain this year at 4.8 and 3.2 per cent in the US and the UK, respectively, and 8.8 per cent in the emerging markets. The highest inflation is projected at 15.3 per cent in the CIS counties and at 12.8 per cent in the Middle East & North Africa.
More :http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Inflation_shoots_up_to_1191/articleshow/3246282.cms
Invest during inflation? Tips for investments World inflation
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Equities end higher on easing in crude oil
Bolstered by positive global cues and receding crude oil prices, equities in India snapped their week-long losing streak to end sharply higher om Thursday. Investors covered short positions and also made fresh purchase at lower levels.
National Stock Exchange’s Nifty settled 130.5 points or 3.42 per cent higher at 3947.20. The index touched a high of 3968.75 and a low of 3823.15 intra day. Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex ended up 536.05 points or 4.26 per cent at 13,111.85 after swinging in a range of 13,150.35 and 12,843.79.
The BSE Mid-cap Index ended up 1.39 per cent at 5,155.34 and the BSE Small-cap Index was 0.99 per cent higher at 6,387.12. “Market was in an oversold territory and we witnessed a technical bounce-back. Another factor that lifted the positive sentiment was cooling of crude oil prices,” said Arpit Agrawal, head of research, Arihant Capital Markets. Traders covered positions in over-beaten interest-sensitive sectors like banking and real estate. Buying was also seen in capital goods stocks. Steel counters sulked on fear of government initiative to cap prices. Market discounted inflation, which was expected to be above 12 per cent. “Market will remain volatile till vote of confidence is passed.
Otherwise, fundamentally things have not changed much,” Agrawal added. Biggest Sensex gainers were HDFC (9.78%), Maruti Suzuki (9.46%), Jaiprakash Associates (9.19%), DLF (8.44%), Larsen & Toubro (7.49%) and State Bank of India (7.75%). Losers comprised Ranbaxy Laboratories (-3.93%) and Tata Steel (-2.92%). Market breadth remained positive through the day. On BSE, 1,536 advances outnumbered 1,081 declines. In Europe, stocks were buoyant cheering crude’s fall. The FTSE 100 was up 2.34 per cent, DAX 30 rose 2.33 per cent and CAC 40 added 2.76 per cent.
Oil prices fell on concerns slowing US economic growth would hurt crude demand. Light sweet crude forAugust delivery, dipped 42 cents to $134.18 per barrel. Friday, market will cheer a marginal rise in domestic inflation to 11.91 per cent in the week to July 5 from 11.89 per cent in the previous week. Finance Ministry’s statement that inflation has stabilized will further lift investor sentiment.
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Other top news:
Biocon among world's top 20 biotechnology company
Unitech gets Rs 740 cr from Lehman
GSPC to invest $ 1 bn in KG basin
Oil slumps $6 to $134 on surprise rise in US inventories
Now, Shah Rukh, Aamir, Abhishek make it to Forbes list
Aviva plans foray into asset management business
Source: ET
16 July 2008
TCS Q1 net up 5 per cent, lags forecast
TCS Q1 net up 5 per cent, lags forecast
Country's top software exporter, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), narrowly missed forecasts with a 5 per cent rise in quarterly profit, as a global credit turmoil crimped outsourcing deals from its big financial clients.
Tata Consultancy, which provides services such as consulting, system integration and back-office outsourcing, said on Wednesday net profit rose to Rs 1,244 crore ($289 million) in its first quarter ended June from Rs 1,186 crore reported a year ago under US accounting rules.
A poll had forecast a net profit of Rs 1,251 crore for Tata Consultancy, whose clients include General Electric, Lloyds TSB Group, French insurer AXA SA and Qantas Airways. Ahead of the result, shares in Tata Consultancy, which the market values at about $17 billion, ended nearly 3 per cent down at Rs 727.35 in BSE that fell 0.79 per cent.
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Other Qtr Results:
Container Corporation Of India net profit rises 7.88% in the June 2008 quarterSales rise 5.71% to Rs 822.84 crore
Mindtree reports net loss of Rs 12.96 crore in the June 2008 quarter
ABC Bearings net profit rises 33.01% in the June 2008 quarter
Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals net profit declines 61.43% in the June 2008 quarter
State Bank of Mysore net profit declines 80.34% in the June 2008 quarter
Mysore Paper Mills net profit rises 9284.62% in the June 2008 quarter
SKF India net profit declines 10.04% in the June 2008 quarter
Timken India net profit rises 44.16% in the June 2008 quarter
Housing Development Finance Corporation net profit rises 25.56% in the June 2008 quarter
Power Finance Corporation net profit declines 4.00% in the June 2008 quarter
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) reports net loss of Rs 34.72 crore in the June 2008 quarter
S.Kumars Nationwide net profit declines 37.04% in the June 2008 quarter
Excel Crop Care net profit rises 105.14% in the June 2008 quarter
Bafna Spinning Mills & Exports net profit rises 16.67% in the June 2008 quarter
Sunflag Iron & Steel Company net profit rises 94.34% in the June 2008 quarter
Modern India net profit rises 23.01% in the June 2008 quarter
Tata Metaliks net profit rises 31.71% in the June 2008 quarter
Country Club India net profit rises 46.21% in the June 2008 quarter
Source: ET, Capitalmarket
Trillion Dollar Economies: World Bank Report
For more @ http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/quickiearticleshow/3234829.cms
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Other Top stories:
Sensex, Nifty end at new 15-month lows
'Indian Clinical trials biz will touch $546 b FY 11'
Tata Teleservices Q1 net loss at Rs 34.715 cr
World's best places to invest in realty
Source: ET, Sify
New 15 month Low for Sensex, Nifty: ET
It was a classic example of a 'dead cat bounce' that the market witnessed on Wednesday as benchmarks collapsed to a 15-month low after a promising start. Even as global equities tumbled overnight after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spelled out serious economic risks facing the US, crude oil's steep fall below $139 per barrel gave a ray of hope for Indian markets, especially after being severely beaten down in the last few sessions.
However, the relief rally was short-lived as political uncertainty ahead of next week's parliamentary trust vote and worsening global credit crisis took precedence. Also, fears of inflation topping 12 per cent weighed on sentiment. Starting this week, inflation data will be released every Thursday at 5 pm instead of midday on Friday. Interest rate sensitive sectors like realty, automobiles and banks were punished the most as investors expect interest rates to inch up further if inflation continued to spike. The first sign of weakness was seen in the mid- and small-cap space, but as the day progressed, it seeped into frontline stocks as well, crippling the Sensex and Nifty.
Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex closed at 12,575.80, down 100.39 points or 0.79 per cent after rising to an intra-day high of 12,935.25. The index fell to a new 15-month low of 12,514.02 during the day. National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at 3816.70, down 44.40 points or 1.15 per cent. It saw a low of 3790.20 and high of 3920.05 intraday.
“The market lacks confidence as macro-economic factors and political uncertainties weigh on sentiment. I would advise investors to remain short till the market shows a convincing upmove backed by heavy volumes,” said an analyst with a local brokerage. Second line stocks were the worst affected. BSE Midcap Index declined 1.14 per cent to 5,104.66 and BSE Smallcap Index ended at 6,340.48, down 1.41 per cent.
But the standout performer was Ranbaxy Laboratories. Shortly before the market opened, the pharmaceutical major's CEO Malvinder Singh clarified on the Daiichi Sankyo stake buy and USFDA allegations over adulteration. He said there was a lot of speculation in the market due to lack of clarity on the issues and that the stock price of Ranbaxy doesn't reflect the potential of the company. He tried to put to rest rumours that Daiichi Sankyo was seeking to opt out of the acquisition.
Singh said that Daiichi Sankyo was fully aware of the USFDA issue before the deal took place. He added that the Lipitor settlement was independent of Daiichi Sankyo and there will be no change in the settlement with Pfizer. The stock, which had tanked 23 per cent in the previous two sessions, rebounded 15.02 per cent, making it the biggest gainer on the Sensex.
Other gainers were Bharti Airtel (2.87%), ONGC (2.52%), Hindustan Unilever (1.77%), Ambuja Cement (1.37%) and ITC (1.25%). DLF (down 7.73%), Jaiprakash Associates (6.09%), Mahindra & Mahindra (5.42%), HDFC (4.43%), SBI (3.32), Tata Steel (3.29%) and Tata Consultancy Services (2.98%) were the biggest losers in the Sensex. Market breadth remained weak through the day. On BSE, there were 1,803 declines and 810 advances, while on NSE there were 300 gainers and 948 losers.
Meanwhile, European stocks also declined after UK unemployment jumped the most in June since the last recession in 1992 as the economic slowdown forced companies to cut jobs and stop hiring. Claims for jobless benefits climbed for a fifth month, increasing 15,500 from May, data showed on Wednesday. The FTSE 100 declined 1.69 per cent, DAX 30 lost 0.69 per cent and CAC 40 slumped 1.02 per cent.
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BGR Energy bags Rs 4,900 cr order, stock up 9%
Chambal Fertilisers Q1 falls to Rs 23.80 cr
Rel Retail to open 50-60 'i stores'
Inflation data to be out on Thursday
Ambani brothers' spat highlights India's coalition politics
Parsvnath to invest Rs 400 crore in Nanocity project
Goldman Sachs retains 'buy' on Sesa Goa
Source: ET
US STOCKS-Dow closes below 11,000 as bank fears mount
* Dow closes below 11,000 for first time in two years
* S&P 500 slides over 1 pct, Nasdaq nearly flat
* Oil plunges over $6 a barrel, hurting energy shares
* Fannie, Freddie shares fall on worries over rescue plan
* Financial shares end lower in choppy trading (Adds Intel, Sun Micro after-hours rise)
By Walter Brandimarte
NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - The Dow industrials closed below 11,000 for the first time in two years on Tuesday as doubts about the U.S. plan to rescue mortgage finance companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae hurt financial stocks and tumbling oil prices hurt energy shares.
Freddie and Fannie shares plunged over 25 percent on fears that a government plan to stabilize the companies will dilute the value of their shares. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the plan was designed to be a backstop.
The whole banking sector finished lower, with the KBW banking index .BKX sliding 3.08 percent in an extremely volatile session, as investors feared the ongoing credit crisis could spur more bank failures after regulators took over IndyMac last week. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the banking system is well capitalized, but also said that financial markets remain under "considerable stress."
"The weakness was concentrated in financials and it seemed like, despite the testimony from Bernanke and Paulson, skepticism remains related to all the credit issues," said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at Trusco Capital Management in Atlanta.
The Nasdaq edged up as investors bet Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) would ease concerns about slower growth at its Windows business when it reports earnings later this week. Shares of the software maker jumped 4.0 percent to $26.15.
The technology sector may get another boost on Wednesday after Intel (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's biggest chip maker, reported stronger-than-expected results after the market close and Sun Microsystems (JAVA.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) posted preliminary results that pleased investors. Shares of Intel gained as much as 2.4 percent in after-hours trade, while shares of Sun Micro rose as much as 12.6 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 92.65 points, or 0.84 percent, at 10,962.54, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 13.39 points, or 1.09 percent, at 1,214.91. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 2.84 points, or 0.13 percent, at 2,215.71.
Shares of Freddie Mac slumped 26 percent to $5.26 while Fannie Mae shares lost 27.3 percent at $7.07.
Despite the slide in the bank sector, shares of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) surged 6.6 percent to $13.22 after a report that the investment bank was considering ways to go private. [ID:nN15304704]
Among energy shares, Exxon Mobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) slid 3.8 percent to $82.19 as the price of crude oil plunged. The S&P energy index shed 4.19 percent.
Trading volume was moderate on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.85 billion shares changing hands, below last year's estimated daily average of roughly 1.90 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 2.7 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.17 billion.
Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 3 to 1, whole on the Nasdaq, about 3 stocks fell for every two that rose. (Additional reporting by Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Leslie Adler)
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Oil steady under $139, eyes on U.S. oil demand
Bank shares sink to 1996 levels on loss fears
Bernanke: Markets under stress, outlook uncertain
Source: Reuters.com
15 July 2008
Sensex slides 654 pts as stock prices plummet, 15month low
Equities, led by bank stocks, opened on a negative note on the major Indian bourses this morning on weak global cues and drifted lower and lower as the session progressed as selling continued unabated right till the end.
Stockometer Top gainers Worst losers
Huge credit losses suffered by a few US banks, high oil prices, political uncertainties, spiralling inflation and declining growth all contributed in good measure to the market's sharp slide today. So bearish was the sentiment that stocks found support hard to come by even at sharply lower levels.
Tips to book profits in a falling market! Click here
The Sensex, which had hit a historic high of 21,206.77 in intra-day trades on in early January this year, has tanked by around 8,500 points over a short span of six months.
The Sensex, which crashed to 12,605, its lowest since April 4, 2007, when it had touched a low of 12,691.24, ended the day with a massive loss of 654.32 points or 4.91% at 12,676.19. The Nifty, which plunged to 3835.50 in intra-day trades today, settled at 3861.10, netting a huge loss of 178.60 points or 4.42%.
Besides stocks from the banking sector, several stocks from capital goods, metal, realty, PSU, FMCG, oil and auto sectors too declined sharply and finished with big losses today. Mirroring the sell-off in bank stocks, the Bankex tumbled by 7.75%. BSE Realty (down 5.44%), CG (down 5.25%), Metal (down 5.21%), Power (down 4.91%), PSU (down 4.37%) and HC (down 4.18%) declined sharply. The Teck, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas and FMCG indices went down by 3% - 4% and BSE Auto eased by 2.5%.
IT stocks, which bounced back in early trade after recent losses, lost their way around mid afternoon and posted sharp losses. Reflecting the losses posted by key stocks in that space, the BSE IT ended lower by 2.34%.
Due to heavy selling at side counters, the Midcap and Smallcap indices plunged by around 3.15% today. The market breadth remained weak right through the session. When trade ended, out of a total of 2696 stocks that were seen in action on BSE, as many as 2093 stocks were down in the red. 543 stocks posted gains and 60 stocks ended flat.
All the components of the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty finished in the negative territory today. Infosys Technologies (down 0.77%) suffered the least damage. Satyam Computer Services, which stayed in the positive territory for a long time today, closed with a loss of 2.7%. Tata Consultancy Services lost 2.5% while Wipro dropped down by around 6.5%.
Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 14%) has another disastrous outing. Banking sector heavyweights HDFC Bank (down 11.26%), ICICI Bank (down 8.7%) and State Bank of India (down 6.35%) nosedived on sustained selling pressure.
Metal stocks Hindalco and Tata Steel lost 8.3% and 5.4% respectively. Reliance Industries (down 3.4%), Reliance Infrastructure (down 6.1%) and Reliance Communications (down 7.2%) posted sharp losses.
BHEL, HDFC, Jaiprakash Associates and DLF lost 6% - 7%. Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, ITC, Ambuja Cements, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti Suzuki and ONGC lost 3% - 5%. NTPC closed with a loss of 2.75%. ACC, Grasim Industries and Tata Motors lost 1.25% - 1.75%.
Idea Cellular ended nearly 8% down. Unitech, Siemens, Sterlite Industries, HCL Technologies, ABB, Suzlon Energy, SAIL, Power Grid Corporation, Nalco and Reliance Petroleum lost 3% - 6.5%. Punjab National Bank, GAIL India, Tata Power, BPCL, Zee Entertainment, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tata Communications, Cairn India, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Hero Honda also ended with sharp losses.
IVRCL Infrastructure, Tata Chemicals, Chambal Fertilizers, Century Textiles, IDFC, India Infoline, Financial Technologies, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel, Union Bank of India, Sun TV Network, Essar Shipping, Shree Precoated Steels, Alstom Projects, Mundra Port, Aditya Birla Nuvo, Adani Enterprises, Moser Baer, CMC, Lok Housing, Champagne Industries, Arshya International, Sterlite Technologies, Aptech, Advanta and Assam Company were among the major losers today.
IFCI, Tech Mahindra, ABG Shipyard, Bhushan Steel and Aban Offshore finished with marginal gains. BF Utilites, Walchandnagar Industries, Prithvi Infosystems, Zuari Industries, Allcargo Global, SKF India, SpiceJet, Cranes Software, ING Vysya Bank, Kesoram Industries, Marg, Ahluwalia and Consolidated Construction Consortium moved up sharply on selective buying support.
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Indian rupee falls to 1-wk low on Fitch downgrade
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Q1 2009 Results
Adinath Bio-Labs reports net profit of Rs 0.09 crore in the June 2008 quarter
Sales reported at Rs 4.69 crore
IKF Technologies net profit rises 64.29% in the June 2008 quarterSales rise 78.17% to Rs 15.18 crore
Uniply Industries reports net loss of Rs 1.01 crore in the June 2008 quarterSales decline 31.01% to Rs 20.78 crore
State Bank of Travancore net profit declines 52.89% in the June 2008 quarterOperating income rises 9.74% to Rs 923.99 crore
KIC Metaliks reports net loss of Rs 8.86 crore in the March 2008 quarterSales decline 23.52% to Rs 33.10 crore
Biofil Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals reports net loss of Rs 0.49 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Bambino Agro Industries reports net profit of Rs 8.61 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Novartis India net profit rises 29.77% in the June 2008 quarter
Dhruv Estates reports net loss of Rs 0.01 crore in the June 2008 quarter
Standard Capital Markets reports net profit of Rs 0.05 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Jubilant Organosys net profit declines 89.52% in the June 2008 quarter
Tata Investment Corporation net profit rises 8.41% in the June 2008 quarter
Odyssey Technologies reports net profit of Rs 0.14 crore in the June 2008 quarter
Chettinad Cement Corporation net profit rises 23.94% in the June 2008 quarter
BWL reports net loss of Rs 0.16 crore in the June 2008 quarter
Rallis India net profit rises 197.89% in the June 2008 quarter
Shyamal Holdings & Trading reports no net profit or loss in the June 2008 quarter
Manali Petrochemical net profit declines 74.79% in the June 2008 quarter
Bhagheeratha Engineering reports net loss of Rs 4.67 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Sanwaria Agro Oils net profit rises 139.20% in the June 2008 quarter
Patel Engineering net profit rises 17.94% in the June 2008 quarter
UT reports net loss of Rs 4.03 crore in the March 2008 quarter
PSL net profit rises 52.01% in the June 2008 quarter
Mahanivesh India reports net loss of Rs 3.39 crore in the March 2008 quarter
Sree Rayalaseema Alkalies & Allied Chemicals net profit rises 70.42% in the June 2008 quarter
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Company net profit rises 91.48% in the year ended March 2008
Orissa Sponge Iron and Steel reports net profit of Rs 8.15 crore in the March 2008 quarter
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Source: capitalmarket
Deadpresident Blog updates
Infy
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Post Session Commentary - July 15 2008
Bears on a rampage as Sensex tanks 654 points
Adjust to the wind, avoid a windfall!
Axis Bank
Merger and Acquisitions dip
Source: deadpresident b.lo
14 July 2008
Q1 results: Axis Bk, Geojit, Tanla, TataSponge etc
Net profit of Axis Bank rose 88.67% to Rs 330.14 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 174.98 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007. Total operating income rose 47.46% to Rs 2266.44 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 1536.97 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007.
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Geojit Financial Services net profit declines 55.02% in the June 2008 quarter
CMC net profit rises 4.11% in the June 2008 quarter
Tata Sponge Iron net profit rises 77.43% in the June 2008 quarter
Net profit of Tata Sponge Iron rose 77.43% to Rs 29.33 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 16.53 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007. Sales rose 8.82% to Rs 101.77 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 93.52 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007.
Tanla Solutions net profit rises 28.71% in the June 2008 quarter
Net profit of Tanla Solutions rose 28.71% to Rs 25.06 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 19.47 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007. Sales rose 58.54% to Rs 41.03 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 25.88 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007.
Everonn Systems India net profit rises 403.28% in the June 2008 quarter
PSI Data Systems net profit rises 485.71% in the June 2008 quarter
Celestial Labs net profit rises 4.62% in the June 2008 quarter
Source: Capital Market
Closing Bell: Market consolidates, techs badly bruised
It was a choppy session for equities on Monday on account of mixed global cues, which finally saw key indices end with losses. Fears about corporate earnings with higher fuel charges, inflation and the likelihood of further monetary tightening also did not leave investors' minds.
"Though there is nothing positive for the market to go by, price wise, we have already seen a very sharp correction, and for the time being, I don't see the indices declining much further than current levels. I don't expect any sharp movement on either side. On the Nifty, 4000 is a strong support level, while resistance is faced around 4150," said Viral Doshi, independent technical and derivatives analyst.
National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended at 4,039.70, down 9.3 points or 0.23 per cent. It touched a high of 4,118.10 and low of 4,004.25. Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex closed at 13,330.51, down 139.34 points or 1.03 per cent. It touched a high of 13,559.36 and low of 13,269.62.
Ranbaxy Laboratories (-10.45%), Satyam Computer (-7.92%), Infosys Technologies (7.18%), Tata Consultancy Services (3.79%) and HDFC (3.38%) were the major Sensex losers. The gainers comprised ONGC (3.24%), NTPC (3.15%), Mahindra & Mahindra (2.91%), State Bank of India (2.9%) and Tata Steel (2.69%).
BSE Mid-cap Index ended 0.64 per cent lower at 5,330.80 and BSE Small-cap Index closed down 1.1 per cent at 6,640.06. Market breadth remained negative through the day. On BSE, 1,576 shares declined and 1,009 advances. IT stocks were punished yet again, following a leading brokerage downgrade on industry major Infosys citing concerns demand from US customers may slow. The BSE IT Index lost 5.94 per cent.
On Friday, data showed industrial production rose 3.8 per cent in May 2008, much lower than the revised 6.2 per cent growth in April 2008. Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 11.89 per cent in 12 months to June 28, above the previous week's annual rise of 11.63 per cent. It was the highest in more than 13 years. Elsewhere in Asia, markets were choppy on account of renewed concerns over the US mortgage market. High oil prices also continued to weigh, after touching a record $147 per barrel on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 0.23 per cent, Hang Seng closed down 0.77 per cent in Hong Kong, Taiwan's TAIEX shed 1.21 per cent and Singapore's Straits Times dropped 0.78 per cent.
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India ranks 41 in industrial competitiveness: UNIDO report
M&As continue to click, June sees 51 deals worth $5.35 bn
Tighten monetary policy
Usha Mittal, Tina Ambani in Forbes' rich wives list
Mukesh Ambani meets Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
ICICI, HDFC AMCs among 20 cos in race for managing EPFO funds
Ranbaxy slumps 11% on US probe; company says allegations baseless
Stocks to watch: Videocon, Shanthi Gears, Power Grid
Source: ET
Week Ahead: Crucial support at 3900: BS
A small recovery was followed by another downturn in a very volatile market. The Nifty ended up 0.82 per cent at 4049 points after hitting highs of 4215. The Sensex was up an even more nominal 0.1 per cent at 13,469. The Defty gained 1.5 per cent as the rupee recovered from $43.40 to $42.70.
The FIIs continue to be net sellers while domestic funds are still buying, albeit in small quantities. Volumes remain low and declines slightly outnumbered advances.
Relatively smaller stocks did better than pivotals with the Junior jumping 3.6 per cent and the Midcaps up 1.6 per cent while the BSE 500 gained 1.26 per cent. However, really small stocks suffered from lack of liquidity Outlook: The market is likely to range-trade between 3900-4200 with fairly high daily volatility. A breakout in either direction would lead to a 200 point move. So a breakout could lead to a swing till either 3700 or 4400. Expect weakness early in the week.
Rationale: The intermediate trend, which turned bearish in early May could now be petering out. The long-term trend is clearly negative.
Daily high-low ranges of 200-plus points are likely. Support at 3850-3900 is strong while there is powerful resistance at 4200-plus. There could be a boost to sentiment if the UPA wins the confidence vote.
Counter-view: The test of support at 3900, which is likely to occur early this week, is crucial. If 3900 holds, the intermediate trend will reverse. This is a long F&O settlement and technical factors like short-covering will not come into play immediately. For the market to hold at 3900 and then break 4200 on the next bounce will require some genuine value-buying.
Bulls & bears: Q1 results have just started floating in and obviously that has a major impact. IT scrips lost ground this week after Infosys' results and guidance was released. There was massive volatility across the sector and end-Friday, majors such as HCL Tech, Wipro, I-Flex, Polaris, Satyam and TCS all looked bearish.
Much of the recovery came from banks and real estate stocks which had been beaten down severely and saw reversal this week. The BankNifty gained over 5 per cent with most banks spiking up. In real estate, DLF, Omaxe and Sobha looked most interesting in terms of potential bullishness.
However, Friday saw momentum being lost in both these sectors. Select cement stocks and capital goods and engineering construction outfits also made comebacks. Non-ferrous metal producers like Nalco, Hindalco and Sterlite saw lots of bull interest. If the SP shores up the UPA successfully, there may also be a bounce for ADAG scrips such as RCom, Reliance Infra, and RNRL. There was scattered interest in scrips such as Cairn, Dabur, Tata Chemicals and Voltas.
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MICRO TECHNICALS
Aban Current Price: Rs 2,845.95 Target Price: Rs 3,000
The stock has risen off a support at 2550 and is likely to move till 2900 before it hits resistance. If it closes above 2900, the next resistance is at 3000. It looks quite likely to move above 2900 since volumes have built up. Keep a stop at 2820 and go long. Book a partial profit at 2900.
HDFC Bank Current Price: Rs 1,067.8 Target Price: Rs 1,125
HDFC Bank is amongst the most promising bank shares. It has maintained its recovery on Friday when other bank stocks saw a repeat sell off. The scrip has the potential to rise till around the 1125 mark and maybe even 1150. Keep a stop at 1050 and go long. Start closing out the position above 1125.
Nalco Current Price: Rs 380.70Target Price: Rs 410
The stock has shot up from 305 on strong volume expansion. It has just completed a bullish formation with a breakout above 370. The target projection would be around 410. Keep a stop at 375 and go long.
ONGCCurrent Price: Rs 849.5Target Price: Rs 820
The stock has seen a bearish engulfing pattern where prices on Friday moved between a high -low range of 845-927 and closed at the low end. The range was far more than in previous sessions. The target would be about 820. Keep a stop at 860 and go short.
TCS Current Price: Rs 798.60Target Price: Rs 770
A massively bearish engulfing pattern was visible in TCS where the price also made a downside breakout from a trading range but not on very high volumes. There could be a downside till around the 760 level. However this target may not be achieved due to lack of volume. More likely we will see range-trading between 770-830. Go short with a stop at 810 and be prepared for high volatility.
(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)
Source: Business Standard
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Conservative investors can put their money in PSU bank
Hawkins Cookers: Good defensive bet for investors
Inflation targets don't kill jobs, economies
MD speak: Trikona Capital
Good time to switch out of failing sectors
Domestic pharma industry is at the crossroads
Bears bailing out, rather than shorting
Declining liquidity is root cause of market meltdown
Interview: Oiling The Wheels
India Inc's Q4 results depict future trend
Dolphin Offshore: Growth opportunities for long-term
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Stock/Sector Analysis:
Tata Power
Sintex Industries
Industrials, Construction, Insurance
Piramal Healthcare, Welspun Gujarat
India Strategy, Jaiprakash Associates, Jindal SAW, India Economy
Hindustan Unilever, Banks
Source: ET, Deadpresident blog
13 July 2008
Q1 2009 Results: IFCI, SouthIndian Bk, Edelweiss Etc
Net profit of IFCI declined 38.80% to Rs 151.07 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 246.86 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007. Sales declined 11.56% to Rs 309.48 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 349.95 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007.
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Geojit reports 55% drop in net
Geojit Financial Services reported a 55 per cent drop in its standalone net profit at Rs 4.93 crore against Rs 10.96 crore in the same year ago quarter. Total income rose 12.5 per cent to Rs 39.52 crore (Rs 35.12 crore). Total expenditure however rose 36 per cent to Rs 32.71 crore from Rs 24.03 crore. Operational costs rose because of the company’s continuing expansion of its branch network, and this is expected to produce results over the next two quarters, said a company statement.
Geojit’s consolidated net profit fell by 41.3 per cent to Rs 7.1 crore (Rs 12.1 crore).
(The company had made a profit of Rs 4.74 crore from sale of non-trade investments during the same period last year.)“The fall in profit before tax after adjusting for the Exceptional Item is therefore only 22.6 per cent,” said the statement. The consolidated total income for the quarter rose 13.4 per cent to Rs 47.34 crore (Rs 41.75 crore).
The company’s income from other operations increased to Rs 43.82 crore from Rs 37.90 crore.
The diluted EPS of the company decreased to Rs 0.33 from Rs 0.56. Geojit’s joint venture with BNP Paribas for institutional broking will commence operations in the current quarter, said the statement.The shares of the company closed at Rs 39.6 on Friday, 0.88 per cent down from its previous close.
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Edelweiss standalone net down 10%
Broking firm Edelweiss Capital reported a 10 per cent drop in standalone net profit at Rs 6.78 crore as against Rs 7.5 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. The company’s total income stood at Rs 56.63 crore, up from Rs 30.69 crore in the year-ago period. The company got listed on the stock exchanges in December last year.
The consolidated net profit for the same period rose 52 per cent to Rs 63.78 crore (Rs 41.93 crore). The total income increased 87 per cent from Rs 143.74 crore to Rs 268.93 crore
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South Indian Bank net profit rises 27.16% in the June 2008 quarter
Net profit of South Indian Bank rose 27.16% to Rs 38.62 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 30.37 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007. Total operating income rose 24.82% to Rs 371.61 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 297.71 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007.
***********************************
Garware-Wall Ropes net profit rises 23.23% in the June 2008 quarter
Source: BusinessLine, Capitalmarket.
Stock Analysis from BusinessLine, Deadpresident Blog
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Nifty futures likely to be rangebound
STOCKS: Welspun Gujarat Stahl: Buy
STOCKS: Tata Power: Buy
STOCKS: Grasim Industries: Buy
STOCKS: Glenmark Pharma: Hold
STOCKS: Bartronics: Buy
MUTUAL FUNDS: Magnum Contra: Invest
MUTUAL FUNDS: HDFC Growth: Hold
DERIVATIVES MARKETS: How to make money when you are only mildly bullish
INVESTMENTS: Play defensive in a volatile market
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner
PEOPLE: Investment Nuggets
HOUSING FINANCE: Home loan rates
STOCK MARKETS: Bull's Eye
STOCK MARKETS: Baskets of X
------------------------------------------------
http://www.deadpresident.blogspot.com
Crude Oil Update / Pyramid Saimira Theatre
Reliance Industries
Punj LLoyd
Quarterly Preview - April - June 2008
Q1 FY09 Preview
Investment Strategy
Reliance Communications /Deccan Chronicle
Q1 Earnings Preview / Balrampur Chini
Weekly Newsletter - July 11 2008
Infosys fails to boost market mood
PE firms invest US$2.8bn in Q2 CY08
Industrial output shrinks in May
Growth to fall below 8%
IIP plunges, may impact economic growth
Result Preview, Savita Chemicals, KS Oils, Indo US Nuclear Deal, Bajaj Auto, Patel Engineering
Kaveri Telecom / Power Sector
Earnings Preview - Apr - Jun 2008
Silly Brokers and Predictions
Source: Above sites.
12 July 2008
Miro - free, open source internet tv and video player
A free, open source Internet TV and video player that can automatically download videos from RSS-based channels. Features a built-in BitTorrent client.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Miro 0.9.8.1 Beta
Description of Miro 0.9.8.1 Beta:
Miro (formerly known as Democracy Player) is the free and open source internet TV platform. Play All Your Videos Play virtually any video-- Quicktime, WMV, MPEG, AVI, XVID, and more. Browse your collection, make playlists, stay organized. Get Internet TV Shows Subscribe to any video RSS feed, podcast, or video blog. Explore hundreds of free channels with the built-in Channel Guide. Search YouTube Download and save videos from YouTube, Google Video, Yahoo Video, and other sites. High Definition and Fullscreen Your computer screen is a high-def display. Watch free HD videos in gorgeous fullscreen. Torrent Power Easily download any BitTorrent file. Fast. Then watch it in the same app. Simple.
Views,downloads:
License: Open Source
Author: Participatory Culture Foundation (2 programs listed)
Price: Free
Size: Miro-0.9.8.1-Beta.exe < 22.27 MB
Rating: Excellent
OS: Windows
Free Download
choose server to download Miro 0.9.8.1 Beta ...
---------------------------------------------
Other Related Info:
Miro Internet TV Player 1000's of channels for free ...
Internet TV: why Miro is better than Joost News TechRadar UK
Miro - The New Democracy Web TV Player Open Source Online Video ...
Miro 0.9.8.1 Beta Free Download Miro (formerly known as Democracy ...
Miro (software) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Top 5 Internet TV Players + TV freebies MakeUseOf.com
Miro - Internet TV and Video Playert
Source: Websources.
Venture Capital, PE Updates
ContentNext Media Sold To UK’s Guardian For $30 Million
Special Undertaking of UTI To Shed 17% Stake In Axis Bank: Report
BK Modi May Sell His Handset Biz To Sony Ericsson
ChrysCapital Buys Infosys, HCL Shares Worth $200M; Already Up 25%
Yes Bank and GEF To Raise $300 Million Cleantech Fund
Bessemer Venture Partners Forms Advisory Group For India Operations
Dalmia’s Landmark Holdings Goes South; Picks Up 25% In Tirupur SPV
Aditya Birla Picks Up 25% Stake In Delhi-Based Retail Chain V Mart
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Cherry Picks Trent Shares For $1M
Axis Private Equity Invests $15 Million In Vishwa Infrastructures
BPTP Gets Rs 250 Crore From JPMorgan To Fund Costliest Land Purchase
WNS Acquires Aviva BPO For $230M; ICICI Lends $200M, Warburg $30M
Web Meeting Company Dimdim Raises $6M In Series B
Tata Steel Global Plans LSE Listing: Report
PE Fundraising Still Strong In US; Europe Even Better
GVK Group In Talks With PE Funds For $150 Million
News Analysis: SpiceJet Turns Most Wanted Airline
Anil Ambani Launching $2-Billion Private Equity Fund: Report
Nomura Group Setting Up Institutional Trading Biz In India
IDG Ventures India Plans Its Second Fund Of $300 Million
Seedfund Raising $30 Million Fund?
DLF Plans $200 Million Construction Industry Focused PE Fund
o3 Capital Launches $300 Million Media Equity Fund; First Close In 3 Months
Moser Baer Hiving Off Entertainment Unit; To Unlock Value
HomeShop18 Raises $21 Million In 2nd Round Funding From SAIF Partners, Capital18
SpiceJet May Choose Wilbur Ross Over Vijay Mallya
2i Capital Announces First Close of Its 2nd Fund At $60 Million
Cafe Coffee Day Holdings To Get $50M From JPMorgan: Report
-------------------------------------------------------
IndiaPE.com
Alliance to sell 10% stake to PE Fund
Ruia buys U.K. component maker
Axis PE invests in Vishawa Infra & Services
Sidbi plans Rs 1,000-cr venture fund
AB Group arm picks up 25% in V Mart Retail
ICICI eyes right fit for global buy
ADAG hits PE road with $2 bn fund
Trikona Capital Expands Urban Rejuvenation Platform in India
PE deals in Q1 leap 50% to $2.8 bn
Jacob Ballas buys stake in Themis
WNS buys Aviva BPO in India for $230 mln
LANDMARK PICKS UP 25% SHARE IN TIRUPUR PROJECT
75% PIPE deals giving negative returns
Tanti group venture buys Chinese wind energy firm
Japan's Nomura to pick up stake in LIC's AMC unit
Source: Above sites.
11 July 2008
Dow cracks below 11,000, Oil Hits $147.2
NEW YORK: US stocks slid further on Friday, sending indexes down about 2 percent or more and the Dow briefly below 11,000 for the first time since July 2006, as investors fretted about the stability of home financing providers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
US stocks tumble on Fannie, Freddie, oil
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Oil prices jump above $147 over conflict in Middle East
Oil prices spiked to a new record above $147 a barrel on Friday, as rising hostilities between the West and Iran and the potential for attacks on Nigerian oil facilities gave investors reason to rush back into the energy markets. Light, sweet crude for August delivery jumped $4.69 to $146.34 a barrel in early trading on the Nymex, after reaching an all-time high of $147.27. August Brent crude rose to a new trading record of $147.50 before easing back to trade $4.82 higher at $146.85 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
The resurgence in crude prices not only raises the concern that $4-a-gallon ($1.05 a liter) gasoline is here to stay for US drivers it also means that heating American homes could get significantly more expensive this winter. Heating oil futures surged on the New York Mercantile Exchange to a record of more than $4.15 a gallon ($1.09 a liter), and natural gas also rose sharply. Iran, which has long been under UN scrutiny for its uranium enrichment program, has been testing missiles this week, including a new missile capable of reaching Israel.
On Thursday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned the oil-producing nation that the United States will defend its allies, and Iran responded with another missile launch. Crude had fallen by nearly $10 a barrel over two days at the start of the week, but rebounded by more than $5 a barrel Thursday as anxiety heightened about Middle East and Nigerian supplies being disrupted. Neither the United States nor Israel has ruled out a military strike on Iran. Traders fear the oil producing nation could block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 40 percent of the world's tanker traffic passes.
``There's always a fear premium in pricing. The tensions in Iran and the threat of supply disruption will help support oil prices,'' said Jeff Brown, managing director of FACTS Global Energy in Singapore. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned Thursday that it cannot replace the shortfall if Iran is attacked and takes its crude supplies off the market. Also Thursday, Nigeria's main militant group said it would resume attacks in the oil-rich region because of Britain's recent vow to back the government in the conflict there. Unrest over the past two years have already lowered the nation's typical daily oil output by a quarter. Continued...Next >>
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Source: ET
Infosys Q1 2009 Results and other stories
Infosys Technologies Ltd, India's No. 2 software services company, posted a 21 per cent rise in quarterly profit, beating forecasts, boosted by a weaker rupee.
Infosys, which develops applications, designs supply chains and offers back-office services, said on Friday net profit rose to 13.02 billion rupees ($303 million) in the fiscal first quarter ended June from 10.79 billion reported a year earlier.
A poll of 15 brokerages had estimated a net profit of 12.69 billion rupees for Infosys, which counts ABN AMRO, Goldman Sachs, Philips Electronics, and U.S. insurer Conseco among its 500 or so clients.
A large pool of English-speaking graduates and comparatively cheaper wages had helped Indian firms ride an outsourcing boom for years, but the growth slowed last year when Wall Street banks made huge write-downs related to the subprime crisis and as the U.S. economy lurched towards recession. Although Indian outsourcing firms are expanding to Europe, Asia and the Middle East to lower their dependence on the United States, the country still accounts for half of their sales.
Shares in Infosys, which the market values at $23 billion, had risen 21 per cent in the June quarter, outperforming a gain of 13 per cent in the sector index and a 14 per cent drop in the main Mumbai index..
Shares turn negative as Infosys comes off
Infosys sees 2008/09 rev up 27.5-29.5%
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May industrial output up 3.8 per cent y/y
Capital goods drag on weak IIP data; L&T down 3%
Stocks slide on weak IIP nos, soaring inflation
Weak IIP data, inflation concerns pull down equities
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Other Top Stories
HCL sees USD75 mn forex loss in June qtr due to dollar rise
Bharat Heavy gets $510 mn contract
Welspun gets orders worth Rs 30 bn
TRAI agrees to DoT proposal to raise base price for 3G auction
Source: ET
Inflation, IIP spook market; Sensex ends 456 points down
Top 20 IT Software and Service Exporters, Top 15 BPO rankings
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Infosys Technologies Ltd. was started in 1981 by seven people with US$ 250. Today, they are a global leader in the "next generation" of IT and consulting with revenues of over US$ 4 billion.Infosys has a global footprint with over 40 offices and development centers in India, China, Australia, the Czech Republic, Poland, the UK, Canada and Japan. Infosys has over 91,000 employees.Infosys' service offerings span business and technology consulting, application services, systems integration, product engineering, custom software development, maintenance, re-engineering, independent testing and validation services, IT infrastructure services and business process outsourcing.Infosys pioneered the Global Delivery Model (GDM), which emerged as a disruptive force in the industry leading to the rise of offshore outsourcing. The GDM is based on the principle of taking work to the location where the best talent is available, where it makes the best economic sense, with the least amount of acceptable risk.
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Wipro Technologies is a global services provider delivering technology-driven business solutions that meets the strategic objectives of their clients. Wipro has 40+ ‘Centers of Excellence’ that create solutions around specific needs of industries.With over 50 industry facing ‘Centers of Excellence', it has 647 clients - 72000+ employees and 53 development centers across the globe, iIt also has 500+ technology consultants and 10,000+ itinerant employees.
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Satyam Computer Services Ltd. is a global IT consulting and services provider, offering a range of expertise aimed at helping customers re-engineer and re-invent their businesses to compete successfully in an ever-changing market.More than 51,000 highly-skilled professionals in Satyam work Onsite, Offsite, Offshore and Nearshore, to provide customized IT solutions for companies across several industries.Satyam’s ideas and products have resulted in technology-intensive transformations that have met the most stringent of international quality standards.Satyam Development Centers in India, the USA, the UK, the UAE, Canada, Hungary, Malaysia, Singapore, China, Japan and Australia serve 654 global companies, of which 185 are Fortune Global 500 and Fortune US 500 corporations.Satyam’s presence spans 63 countries, across six continents.
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HCL Technologies provides software-led IT solutions, remote infrastructure management services and BPO. Having made a foray into the global IT landscape in 1999 after its IPO, HCL Technologies focuses on Transformational Outsourcing, working with clients in areas that impact and re-define the core of their business.The company leverages an extensive global offshore infrastructure and its global network of offices in 18 countries to deliver solutions across select verticals including Financial Services, Retail & Consumer, Life Sciences & Healthcare, Hi-Tech & Manufacturing, Telecom and Media & Entertainment (M&E).For the quarter ended 31st March 2008, HCL Technologies, along with its subsidiaries had last twelve months (LTM) revenue of US $ 1.8 billion (Rs. 7083 crores) and employed 49,802 professionals.The HCL team comprises approximately 55,000 professionals of diverse nationalities, who operate from 18 countries including 360 points of presence in India.3087 software engineers were added last year which meant a growth of 51 per cent. They have offices in 15 countries worldwide. Their customers include NTT Data, VDO, Toshiba and Intelsat.
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Tech Mahindra is a global systems integrator and business transformation consulting firm focused on the communications industry.With the convergence of media and telecom, the changing landscape of the telecom industry is becoming extremely competitive. As companies rapidly strive to gain a competitive advantage, Tech Mahindra helps companies innovate and transform by leveraging its unique insights, differentiated services and flexible partnering models.
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Patni Computer Systems Ltd. is one of the global providers of Information Technology services and business solutions.Over 15,000 professionals service clients across diverse industries, from 22 sales offices across the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific, and 20 Global Delivery Centers in strategic locations across the world.They have serviced more than 400 FORTUNE 1000 companies, for over two decades.
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I-flex Solutions Ltd.
It provides comprehensive IT solutions exclusively to the financial services industry worldwide.I-flex's de-risked revenue model continues to deliver consistent results despite changing global economic conditions. The company is not overly dependent on any one country or geographical region and has a diversified revenue stream from a widespread customer base.
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MphasiS consistently delivers global Infrastructure Technology Outsourcing, Applications Services Outsourcing and Business Process Outsourcing services through a combination of technology know-how, domain and process expertise.MphasiS Limited was formed in June 2000 after the merger of the US-based IT consulting company MphasiS Corporation (founded in 1998) and the Indian IT services company BFL Software Limited (founded in 1993).
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Larsen& Toubro Infotech is an offshoot of Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (L&T) - a technology, engineering, manufacturing and construction conglomerate, with global operations. It is has a 7 decade history in India as premier engineering company and major infrastructure builder.
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Oil surges past $141 (Nearly $6) on Iran tensions, Nigeria
Oil prices jumped 4 percent to above $141 a barrel on Thursday amid threats to production in Nigeria and Brazil and an additional missile test by Iran that escalated tensions with the West.
Further support came from the weak dollar, which fell on renewed credit worries after capital concerns dragged down shares in major mortgage finance sources Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
U.S. crude settled up $5.60 at $141.65 a barrel, off a session high of $142.10 a barrel. London Brent crude settled $5.45 higher at $142.03 a barrel.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, the main militant group in Nigeria's oil-producing Niger Delta, said it was abandoning a cease-fire to protest a British offer to help tackle lawlessness in the region, raising concern of further disruptions to the OPEC nation's exporters.
"The cease-fire in Nigeria is ending on the 12th, and that's creating some jitters as far as supply is concerned," said Rob Kurzatkowski, futures analyst with optionsXpress.
Rebel attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria, the world's No. 8 exporter, have helped push crude prices to record highs over $145 this month, adding to a nearly 50 percent rise in prices this year.
Concerns that tensions between Iran, another OPEC member, and the West over Tehran's nuclear program could lead to an oil supply disruption have added to bullish sentiment.
Iran tested more missiles in the Gulf on Thursday, state media said, and the United States reminded Tehran that it was ready to defend its allies.
But a U.S. official said there was no information to confirm rumors of a third Iran missile test late on Thursday as prices surged near the settlement. There was no mention of a third test on Iranian satellite channels Press TV or Al Alam on their broadcast on Thursday evening. Continued...
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U.S. STOCKS - Market rises on Dow Chemical deal, Bernanke
FACTBOX - India's draft nuclear inspections pact with IAEA
Prime Minister calls for vote of confidence
Source: Reuters India
India's GDP to be close to global average: Sify Special
With a clear shift in economic patterns across the globe, India is fast approaching its goal to be one among the largest economies of the world in terms of GDP, reveals a report by Goldman Sachs on the Expanding Middle – the exploding world middle class and falling global inequality. By 2030, incomes in China and India are projected to be close to the global average.
A simple way to see this is to look at the list of the seven largest economies (the ‘true G7’) in 1960, 2007 and 2050. In 1960, the largest economies were all essentially ‘developed’ countries from the higher income groups. By 2007, that has already clearly begun to change, with China in the top seven and Brazil, India and Russia not far behind. But developed countries still dominate the rankings.
From here on, the shift is likely to accelerate. These shifts could be a significant influence on spending patterns, resource use, and environmental and political pressures. In 2050, India would have the 3rd rank on the top seven nations list with an income ranking of 61.
There are two ways to look at it:
The first is the shift in spending power towards middle-income economies (and away from the richest countries), to a point where they may dominate global spending for the first time in decades, as the largest population countries enter the middle-income group
The second is the shift in spending power towards middle-income people and the explosion of what we think of as a global ‘middle class’ on a scale never seen before. Over the last ten years, we have already seen unprecedented expansion in this group.
Here, Goldman Sachs refers to global middle class as those with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 per annum. According to the report, shifts in China and India are clearly an important part of the story, though peak growth in China is likely to come much earlier than in India. What is striking, though, is that the Expanding Middle, the narrowing of the global income distribution and the expansion of the global middle class is clear whether or not either or both of these giants is included, at least in the recent past and projected future.
The global income distribution is getting narrower, not wider. So while there is a lot of focus on widening inequality and the embattled middle class in developed countries, globally the opposite is true, the report points out. By 2030, two billion new people may join the world middle class.
The distribution of global incomes could narrow significantly further, even if inequality within some countries remains high or rises further, as middle income countries continue to move through the pack. World could outstrip anything which exists globally for decades, and will peak (at around 20 million per year) around the same time as India. Already by 2020, one third of the new entrants to the world middle class will come from outside China and India. And this percentage could reach half by 2030.
A result of these shifts would be a world that could continue to be dominated by the rise of the BRICs, the N-11 (The Next Eleven - Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam - are identified by Goldman Sachs as having a high potential of becoming the world's largest economies) and a handful of other emerging countries.
The first dimension of the `Expanding Middle’ is already visible. Spending power has already been shifting away from the richest countries towards a growing middle-income group. As a result of these shifts, the purchasing power of middle-income countries is rising and set to rise much more.
This group, which will be dominated by a subset - China, India, Brazil, Egypt, Philippines, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, and Vietnam- of the BRICs and N11 will matter more and more for global spending patterns. The second dimension is also visible in the distribution of income across people.
A welcome side effect is that if our growth projections are met, poverty rates should continue to decline sharply. The BRICs continue to emerge as dominant forces in the global economy going forward. The report reveals the BRICs as four of the five largest economies in 2050.
Source: Sify.com