Week Ahead: Crucial support at 3900: BS

Week Ahead: Crucial support at 3900

A small recovery was followed by another downturn in a very volatile market. The Nifty ended up 0.82 per cent at 4049 points after hitting highs of 4215. The Sensex was up an even more nominal 0.1 per cent at 13,469. The Defty gained 1.5 per cent as the rupee recovered from $43.40 to $42.70.

The FIIs continue to be net sellers while domestic funds are still buying, albeit in small quantities. Volumes remain low and declines slightly outnumbered advances.
Relatively smaller stocks did better than pivotals with the Junior jumping 3.6 per cent and the Midcaps up 1.6 per cent while the BSE 500 gained 1.26 per cent. However, really small stocks suffered from lack of liquidity Outlook: The market is likely to range-trade between 3900-4200 with fairly high daily volatility. A breakout in either direction would lead to a 200 point move. So a breakout could lead to a swing till either 3700 or 4400. Expect weakness early in the week.
Rationale: The intermediate trend, which turned bearish in early May could now be petering out. The long-term trend is clearly negative.

Daily high-low ranges of 200-plus points are likely. Support at 3850-3900 is strong while there is powerful resistance at 4200-plus. There could be a boost to sentiment if the UPA wins the confidence vote.

Counter-view: The test of support at 3900, which is likely to occur early this week, is crucial. If 3900 holds, the intermediate trend will reverse. This is a long F&O settlement and technical factors like short-covering will not come into play immediately. For the market to hold at 3900 and then break 4200 on the next bounce will require some genuine value-buying.

Bulls & bears: Q1 results have just started floating in and obviously that has a major impact. IT scrips lost ground this week after Infosys' results and guidance was released. There was massive volatility across the sector and end-Friday, majors such as HCL Tech, Wipro, I-Flex, Polaris, Satyam and TCS all looked bearish.

Much of the recovery came from banks and real estate stocks which had been beaten down severely and saw reversal this week. The BankNifty gained over 5 per cent with most banks spiking up. In real estate, DLF, Omaxe and Sobha looked most interesting in terms of potential bullishness.

However, Friday saw momentum being lost in both these sectors. Select cement stocks and capital goods and engineering construction outfits also made comebacks. Non-ferrous metal producers like Nalco, Hindalco and Sterlite saw lots of bull interest. If the SP shores up the UPA successfully, there may also be a bounce for ADAG scrips such as RCom, Reliance Infra, and RNRL. There was scattered interest in scrips such as Cairn, Dabur, Tata Chemicals and Voltas.
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MICRO TECHNICALS

Aban Current Price: Rs 2,845.95 Target Price: Rs 3,000
The stock has risen off a support at 2550 and is likely to move till 2900 before it hits resistance. If it closes above 2900, the next resistance is at 3000. It looks quite likely to move above 2900 since volumes have built up. Keep a stop at 2820 and go long. Book a partial profit at 2900.

HDFC Bank Current Price: Rs 1,067.8 Target Price: Rs 1,125
HDFC Bank is amongst the most promising bank shares. It has maintained its recovery on Friday when other bank stocks saw a repeat sell off. The scrip has the potential to rise till around the 1125 mark and maybe even 1150. Keep a stop at 1050 and go long. Start closing out the position above 1125.

Nalco Current Price: Rs 380.70Target Price: Rs 410
The stock has shot up from 305 on strong volume expansion. It has just completed a bullish formation with a breakout above 370. The target projection would be around 410. Keep a stop at 375 and go long.

ONGCCurrent Price: Rs 849.5Target Price: Rs 820
The stock has seen a bearish engulfing pattern where prices on Friday moved between a high -low range of 845-927 and closed at the low end. The range was far more than in previous sessions. The target would be about 820. Keep a stop at 860 and go short.

TCS Current Price: Rs 798.60Target Price: Rs 770
A massively bearish engulfing pattern was visible in TCS where the price also made a downside breakout from a trading range but not on very high volumes. There could be a downside till around the 760 level. However this target may not be achieved due to lack of volume. More likely we will see range-trading between 770-830. Go short with a stop at 810 and be prepared for high volatility.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)

Source: Business Standard

Investor's Guide : ET

Investor's Guide

Have stock prices of PSU banks bottomed out?
Bull's eye: Where to invest
Conservative investors can put their money in PSU bank

Hawkins Cookers: Good defensive bet for investors
Inflation targets don't kill jobs, economies
MD speak: Trikona Capital

Good time to switch out of failing sectors
Domestic pharma industry is at the crossroads
Bears bailing out, rather than shorting


Declining liquidity is root cause of market meltdown
Interview: Oiling The Wheels
India Inc's Q4 results depict future trend
Dolphin Offshore: Growth opportunities for long-term
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Stock/Sector Analysis:

Tata Power
Sintex Industries
Industrials, Construction, Insurance
Piramal Healthcare, Welspun Gujarat
India Strategy, Jaiprakash Associates, Jindal SAW, India Economy
Hindustan Unilever, Banks



Source: ET, Deadpresident blog

Q1 2009 Results: IFCI, SouthIndian Bk, Edelweiss Etc

IFCI net profit declines 38.80% in the June 2008 quarter

Net profit of IFCI declined 38.80% to Rs 151.07 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 246.86 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007. Sales declined 11.56% to Rs 309.48 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 349.95 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007.

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Geojit reports 55% drop in net

Geojit Financial Services reported a 55 per cent drop in its standalone net profit at Rs 4.93 crore against Rs 10.96 crore in the same year ago quarter. Total income rose 12.5 per cent to Rs 39.52 crore (Rs 35.12 crore). Total expenditure however rose 36 per cent to Rs 32.71 crore from Rs 24.03 crore. Operational costs rose because of the company’s continuing expansion of its branch network, and this is expected to produce results over the next two quarters, said a company statement.
Geojit’s consolidated net profit fell by 41.3 per cent to Rs 7.1 crore (Rs 12.1 crore).
(The company had made a profit of Rs 4.74 crore from sale of non-trade investments during the same period last year.)“The fall in profit before tax after adjusting for the Exceptional Item is therefore only 22.6 per cent,” said the statement. The consolidated total income for the quarter rose 13.4 per cent to Rs 47.34 crore (Rs 41.75 crore).
The company’s income from other operations increased to Rs 43.82 crore from Rs 37.90 crore.
The diluted EPS of the company decreased to Rs 0.33 from Rs 0.56. Geojit’s joint venture with BNP Paribas for institutional broking will commence operations in the current quarter, said the statement.The shares of the company closed at Rs 39.6 on Friday, 0.88 per cent down from its previous close.
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Edelweiss standalone net down 10%
Broking firm Edelweiss Capital reported a 10 per cent drop in standalone net profit at Rs 6.78 crore as against Rs 7.5 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. The company’s total income stood at Rs 56.63 crore, up from Rs 30.69 crore in the year-ago period. The company got listed on the stock exchanges in December last year.
The consolidated net profit for the same period rose 52 per cent to Rs 63.78 crore (Rs 41.93 crore). The total income increased 87 per cent from Rs 143.74 crore to Rs 268.93 crore

********************************
South Indian Bank net profit rises 27.16% in the June 2008 quarter

Net profit of South Indian Bank rose 27.16% to Rs 38.62 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 30.37 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007. Total operating income rose 24.82% to Rs 371.61 crore in the quarter ended June 2008 as against Rs 297.71 crore during the previous quarter ended June 2007.

***********************************
Garware-Wall Ropes net profit rises 23.23% in the June 2008 quarter


Source: BusinessLine, Capitalmarket.

Stock Analysis from BusinessLine, Deadpresident Blog

http://businessline.in

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Outlook
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Nifty futures likely to be rangebound

STOCKS: Welspun Gujarat Stahl: Buy
STOCKS: Tata Power: Buy
STOCKS: Grasim Industries: Buy

STOCKS: Glenmark Pharma: Hold
STOCKS: Bartronics: Buy
MUTUAL FUNDS: Magnum Contra: Invest

MUTUAL FUNDS: HDFC Growth: Hold
DERIVATIVES MARKETS: How to make money when you are only mildly bullish
INVESTMENTS: Play defensive in a volatile market

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query Corner
PEOPLE: Investment Nuggets
HOUSING FINANCE: Home loan rates
STOCK MARKETS: Bull's Eye
STOCK MARKETS: Baskets of X
------------------------------------------------
http://www.deadpresident.blogspot.com

Crude Oil Update / Pyramid Saimira Theatre
Reliance Industries
Punj LLoyd
Quarterly Preview - April - June 2008
Q1 FY09 Preview

Investment Strategy
Reliance Communications /Deccan Chronicle
Q1 Earnings Preview / Balrampur Chini
Weekly Newsletter - July 11 2008
Infosys fails to boost market mood

PE firms invest US$2.8bn in Q2 CY08
Industrial output shrinks in May
Growth to fall below 8%
IIP plunges, may impact economic growth
Result Preview, Savita Chemicals, KS Oils, Indo US Nuclear Deal, Bajaj Auto, Patel Engineering

Kaveri Telecom / Power Sector
Earnings Preview - Apr - Jun 2008
Silly Brokers and Predictions


Source: Above sites.

Miro - free, open source internet tv and video player

Miro - free, open source internet tv and video player
A free, open source Internet TV and video player that can automatically download videos from RSS-based channels. Features a built-in BitTorrent client.

www.getmiro.com

Download: Get Miro

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Views,downloads:
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Miro - Internet TV and Video Playert


Source: Websources.

Venture Capital, PE Updates

VCCircle.com

ContentNext Media Sold To UK’s Guardian For $30 Million
Special Undertaking of UTI To Shed 17% Stake In Axis Bank: Report
BK Modi May Sell His Handset Biz To Sony Ericsson
ChrysCapital Buys Infosys, HCL Shares Worth $200M; Already Up 25%
Yes Bank and GEF To Raise $300 Million Cleantech Fund

Bessemer Venture Partners Forms Advisory Group For India Operations
Dalmia’s Landmark Holdings Goes South; Picks Up 25% In Tirupur SPV
Aditya Birla Picks Up 25% Stake In Delhi-Based Retail Chain V Mart
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Cherry Picks Trent Shares For $1M
Axis Private Equity Invests $15 Million In Vishwa Infrastructures

BPTP Gets Rs 250 Crore From JPMorgan To Fund Costliest Land Purchase
WNS Acquires Aviva BPO For $230M; ICICI Lends $200M, Warburg $30M
Web Meeting Company Dimdim Raises $6M In Series B
Tata Steel Global Plans LSE Listing: Report
PE Fundraising Still Strong In US; Europe Even Better

GVK Group In Talks With PE Funds For $150 Million
News Analysis: SpiceJet Turns Most Wanted Airline
Anil Ambani Launching $2-Billion Private Equity Fund: Report
Nomura Group Setting Up Institutional Trading Biz In India
IDG Ventures India Plans Its Second Fund Of $300 Million

Seedfund Raising $30 Million Fund?
DLF Plans $200 Million Construction Industry Focused PE Fund
o3 Capital Launches $300 Million Media Equity Fund; First Close In 3 Months
Moser Baer Hiving Off Entertainment Unit; To Unlock Value
HomeShop18 Raises $21 Million In 2nd Round Funding From SAIF Partners, Capital18

SpiceJet May Choose Wilbur Ross Over Vijay Mallya
2i Capital Announces First Close of Its 2nd Fund At $60 Million
Cafe Coffee Day Holdings To Get $50M From JPMorgan: Report

-------------------------------------------------------
IndiaPE.com

Alliance to sell 10% stake to PE Fund
Ruia buys U.K. component maker
Axis PE invests in Vishawa Infra & Services
Sidbi plans Rs 1,000-cr venture fund
AB Group arm picks up 25% in V Mart Retail

ICICI eyes right fit for global buy
ADAG hits PE road with $2 bn fund
Trikona Capital Expands Urban Rejuvenation Platform in India
PE deals in Q1 leap 50% to $2.8 bn
Jacob Ballas buys stake in Themis

WNS buys Aviva BPO in India for $230 mln
LANDMARK PICKS UP 25% SHARE IN TIRUPUR PROJECT
75% PIPE deals giving negative returns
Tanti group venture buys Chinese wind energy firm
Japan's Nomura to pick up stake in LIC's AMC unit


Source: Above sites.

Dow cracks below 11,000, Oil Hits $147.2

Dow cracks below 11,000 on Wall Street slide

NEW YORK: US stocks slid further on Friday, sending indexes down about 2 percent or more and the Dow briefly below 11,000 for the first time since July 2006, as investors fretted about the stability of home financing providers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

US stocks tumble on Fannie, Freddie, oil
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Oil prices jump above $147 over conflict in Middle East
Oil prices spiked to a new record above $147 a barrel on Friday, as rising hostilities between the West and Iran and the potential for attacks on Nigerian oil facilities gave investors reason to rush back into the energy markets. Light, sweet crude for August delivery jumped $4.69 to $146.34 a barrel in early trading on the Nymex, after reaching an all-time high of $147.27. August Brent crude rose to a new trading record of $147.50 before easing back to trade $4.82 higher at $146.85 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

The resurgence in crude prices not only raises the concern that $4-a-gallon ($1.05 a liter) gasoline is here to stay for US drivers it also means that heating American homes could get significantly more expensive this winter. Heating oil futures surged on the New York Mercantile Exchange to a record of more than $4.15 a gallon ($1.09 a liter), and natural gas also rose sharply. Iran, which has long been under UN scrutiny for its uranium enrichment program, has been testing missiles this week, including a new missile capable of reaching Israel.

On Thursday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned the oil-producing nation that the United States will defend its allies, and Iran responded with another missile launch. Crude had fallen by nearly $10 a barrel over two days at the start of the week, but rebounded by more than $5 a barrel Thursday as anxiety heightened about Middle East and Nigerian supplies being disrupted. Neither the United States nor Israel has ruled out a military strike on Iran. Traders fear the oil producing nation could block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 40 percent of the world's tanker traffic passes.

``There's always a fear premium in pricing. The tensions in Iran and the threat of supply disruption will help support oil prices,'' said Jeff Brown, managing director of FACTS Global Energy in Singapore. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned Thursday that it cannot replace the shortfall if Iran is attacked and takes its crude supplies off the market. Also Thursday, Nigeria's main militant group said it would resume attacks in the oil-rich region because of Britain's recent vow to back the government in the conflict there. Unrest over the past two years have already lowered the nation's typical daily oil output by a quarter. Continued...Next >>
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Source: ET

Infosys Q1 2009 Results and other stories

India's Infosys Q1 net rises 21 pct, beats f'cast

Infosys Technologies Ltd, India's No. 2 software services company, posted a 21 per cent rise in quarterly profit, beating forecasts, boosted by a weaker rupee.
Infosys, which develops applications, designs supply chains and offers back-office services, said on Friday net profit rose to 13.02 billion rupees ($303 million) in the fiscal first quarter ended June from 10.79 billion reported a year earlier.
A poll of 15 brokerages had estimated a net profit of 12.69 billion rupees for Infosys, which counts ABN AMRO, Goldman Sachs, Philips Electronics, and U.S. insurer Conseco among its 500 or so clients.
A large pool of English-speaking graduates and comparatively cheaper wages had helped Indian firms ride an outsourcing boom for years, but the growth slowed last year when Wall Street banks made huge write-downs related to the subprime crisis and as the U.S. economy lurched towards recession. Although Indian outsourcing firms are expanding to Europe, Asia and the Middle East to lower their dependence on the United States, the country still accounts for half of their sales.
Shares in Infosys, which the market values at $23 billion, had risen 21 per cent in the June quarter, outperforming a gain of 13 per cent in the sector index and a 14 per cent drop in the main Mumbai index..
Shares turn negative as Infosys comes off
Infosys sees 2008/09 rev up 27.5-29.5%
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May industrial output up 3.8 per cent y/y
Capital goods drag on weak IIP data; L&T down 3%
Stocks slide on weak IIP nos, soaring inflation
Weak IIP data, inflation concerns pull down equities
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Other Top Stories
HCL sees USD75 mn forex loss in June qtr due to dollar rise
Bharat Heavy gets $510 mn contract
Welspun gets orders worth Rs 30 bn
TRAI agrees to DoT proposal to raise base price for 3G auction


Source: ET

Inflation, IIP spook market; Sensex ends 456 points down

Stocks on Dalal Street were slaughtered Friday after a host of negative data on the macro-economic front spooked investors. Inflation raced ahead, industrial growth showed a slowdown and crude oil resumed its northward journey. The pessimism was so strong that the market even snubbed IT bellwether Infosys Technologies' better-than-expected Q1 results. The day began on a positive note in reaction to Infosys' 4.24 percent rise in quarterly profit. The IT major raised its full-year revenue forecast in local currency but kept it flat in dollar terms. This did not go too well with investors, thus taking a toll on its shares, and in turn, dragging the entire IT pack in the first few minutes of trade. According to analysts, the outlook disappointed and underscored the increasingly difficult business conditions, particularly in the United States, the main market for Infosys. Infosys reported for the quarter ended June 30, 2008, a net profit of Rs 1,302 crore, up 4.24 per cent from Rs 1,249 crore in the preceding quarter ended on March 31, 2008. The IT major has guided for consolidated revenues of $1,215 million to $1,225 million for the quarter ending on September 30; year on year growth of 18.9-19.9 per cent. Consolidated earnings per American depositary shares is expected to be in the range of $0.55 to $0.56; YoY growth of 14.6-16.7 per cent. Inflation data was the next dampener. Inflation rose 11.89 per cent for the week to June 28. It was forecast to have risen to 11.75 per cent from 11.63 per cent a week earlier. Even the government has hinted that inflation could hit 13 per cent in the coming weeks and that any ease off in prices cannot be expected before the end of the year. To add the woes, India's industrial output rose 3.8 percent in May from a year earlier, sharply below the previous month's downwardly revised 6.2 percent and well below a forecast for growth of 7.2 per cent. This worsened the already jittery sentiment and selling pressure intensified. Capital goods took the sharpest knock. Meanwhile, crude oil rallied to a record high of $145.98 a barrel on concerns that Israel may be preparing to attack Iran, while a strike in Brazil and renewed militant activity in Nigeria would threaten to cut supplies. Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex settled at 13,469.85, down 3.28 per cent or 456 points after oscillating between a high of 14066.36 and low of 13351.34. National Stock Exchange's Nifty ended 103 points or 2.47 per cent down at 4059.35. The broader index moved between a high of 4215.50 and low of 4014.45. Midcaps and smallcaps were relatively less affected as compared to frontline stocks. BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices ended 2.01 per cent and 1.4 per cent lower respectively. Biggest Sensex losers comprised Jaiprakash Associates (-8.48%), Tata Consultancy Services (8.03%), Satyam Computer (-7.19%), Infosys Technologies (-7.18%), Larsen & Toubro (-6.89%) and Reliance Infrastructure (-6.28%). Ambuja Cements (1.9%), HDFC Bank (1.21%), Hindalco Industries (1.01%), Bharti Airtel (0.44%) were the only gainers. Market breadth remained weak through the day. On BSE, 1655 declines outnumbered 995 advances, while on NSE, there were 318 gainers and 921 losers.