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26 October 2008

Index Outlook and Stk analysis from BL,BS

Index Outlook

Sensex (8701.1)
It was a week when all one could do was, watch awe-struck, as stock prices fell in to a bottomless pit. The Sensex effortlessly sliced though one support level after another despite efforts by the troika of the Finance Ministry, SEBI and the RBI to stem the decline. The 100 basis points cut in repo rate, meltdown in commodity prices and lower WPI numbers were shrugged aside as Sensex tumbled 1274 points lower.
There is still a week to go before October ends and FIIs have already pulled out close to $3 billion. Tally for outflows in 2008 has crossed $12 billion. Turnover was brisk, mainly in the derivative segment. The expiry of the October contracts in the derivative segment is expected to pass quite smoothly since the open interest is quite low around Rs 50,000 crore. Low Nifty put call ratio indicates that short positions are being squared at lower levels.
The bear onslaught on Friday dragged the Sensex below 9700 to an intra-week low at 8566. We have stressed the importance of 9700 often in our previous columns. It occurs at 61.8 per cent retracement of the structural up-move from 2001. The structural trend in the Indian markets stays up as long as this level holds.
However, these are long-term support levels. We will wait for two more weekly closes below 9700 to ascertain that Friday’s move was not a false break-out. Conversely, a weekly close above 9700 will make the medium-term view positive again. The support at 8800 (June 2006 trough), indicated in our long-term outlook review was also penetrated on Friday. Next support on the long-term chart is the October 2005 low at 7700.
As per E-wave counts the first target for the C wave from 21206 peak is at 10207. But the continuation of the decline last week has made it apparent that this wave could unfurl to the next target - that is 6887. Minor counts of the down-move from 15579-peak too indicate that if the Sensex declines below 8000, the next halt would be in the zone between 6200 and 6800.
For the week ahead, it needs to be remembered that Sensex is hovering at a key long-term support and a rebound is possible anytime. Supports for the week would be at 8566, 8152 and then 7582. Resistances would be at 9900 and then 10750. A close above the second resistance is needed to make the short term view positive.

Nifty (2584)
Nifty too has penetrated many important long-term supports on Friday. It declined below 2950 as well as the June 2006 trough at 2595. Since the first target of the third wave from the 6357 peak at 3070 has already been penetrated emphatically, it is time to take a look at the next target that is 2093. However, a recovery from current levels that results in a weekly close above 3070 will mitigate the bearish medium-term view.
For the short-term, Nifty can decline to 2525 or 2276. Resistances for the week are at 2972 and then 3254. Close above the second resistance will make the near-term view positive. Failure to move past the first resistance will be a cue for traders to initiate fresh short positions.
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Nifty future in oversold zone

Despite a positive opening for the markets, bears had the last laugh as markets swooned under selling pressure to touch its three-year lows. Predictably, even the Nifty future breached its all-important technical support levels during the week. Both the Nifty October and November futures closed with a huge discount to the spot, which suggests that despite the steep fall, a chunk of the short positions may have been rolled over to November month. So far, about 40 per cent of Nifty positions have been rolled over to November series.
Follow-up
We had presented two strategies on Nifty last week. i) Going long on Nifty future with adjustable stop-losses and ii) Buying December 3500 call. While the first strategy may have provided some profit opportunities, the second strategy would have resulted in sharp value erosion. We suggest traders switch from the December 3500 call to the 3000 strike, which may earn decent profits when the market witnesses a relief rally.
Outlook
We had indicated a support level of 2600 for Nifty futures last week in this column. Now that it has breached the 2600 level, its next support level appears at 1890, which is significantly lower from the current levels. While any steep fall from the current level can take the Nifty lower to its support, there is a minor support at 2300 level.
Alternately, if Nifty reverses from its current levels, it will face resistance around 3050 level.
Any breach of this level, can take Nifty Future to 3350, 3650 and even to 3850 levels. However, we feel the real pivot point for Nifty future is 4350 levels. Only on a move above that level can one turn bullish. The market, however, has been in the oversold zone for quite some time. Recommendation
Retail traders are better off staying away from markets given the sharp intra-day swings that can wipe away gains in no time. However, traders with a high risk appetite can consider a straddle strategy. This can be set by buying Nifty November 2750-call and put.
Traders can hold the position till the expiry of November derivative contracts. Nifty Nov 2750 call closed on Friday at 179.10 and the put ended at Rs 367.25. Straddles are a good strategy to use when a trader believes that the underlying’s price will move significantly, but is unsure about its direction. But for the option spread to move in the money, the underlying asset price has to make a decisive move in either direction. This means, if the price remains stuck in a narrow range, it may not be profitable.
The maximum loss would be limited to the premium paid, whereas the profit can be unlimited if the underlying makes the desired movement.
FIIs trend
The cumulative FII positions as a percentage of total gross market position on the derivative segment as on October 23 increased to 38.72 from October 18 level of 37.83 per cent. This indicates that retail and domestic players have reduced their activity in the market.
Foreign institutional investors have hiked their positions in index futures, but have considerably reduced their exposure to stock futures.
They now hold index futures worth Rs 11,847.25 crore (Rs 11,725.08 crore) and stock futures worth Rs 11,909.55 crore (Rs 14,095.31 crore). Their holding on index options declined marginally to Rs 17,018.53 crore (Rs 17,988.85 crore), according to latest NSE data.

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Wkly Tech Analysis: Let markets find their own bottom

INSIGHT: Time to ‘think global, invest local’The ongoing carnage in the stock market has certainly taught us all that managing an equity portfolio is not just about keeping abreast of what’s happening in India. It is much more than that; after all, who could have imagined that ...

STOCK MARKETS: When panic rules investorsConcerns about a cash crunch and stalled loans batter the stock of realty major Unitech by 49 per cent in a single day. Reports about an accidental breakage in a single turbine blade in the US send the Suzlon Energy stock crashing by 39 per cent ...

STOCKS: Hero Honda: HoldShareholders of Hero Honda can continue to hold the stock. At the current market price of Rs 752, the stock trades at a price-earnings multiple of about 13 times its annualised April-September ‘08 ...

STOCKS: Indo Tech Transformers: BuyIndo Tech Transformers has so far overcome the hurdles of slowing order flows and higher borrowing costs better than similar small sized ...

INVESTMENTS: Nifty BeES: BuyInvestors with a two-three year perspective can consider accumulating Nifty Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Nifty BeES), an exchange-traded fund that mimics the S&P CNX Nifty Index in returns, at its current market price of Rs 269. ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Reliance IndustriesWhen titans such as Reliance Industries shed 22 per cent in a week, what chance do the lesser stocks stand? RIL penetrated the key long-term support at Rs 1,250. The next support on the long-term chart would be at the long-term trend line at ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Tata SteelThere was no let-up in the selling pressure on the Tata Steel counter and the stock declined another 28 per cent last week. Immediate supports on the chart are the 2004 troughs at Rs 156 and then Rs 136. But the ferocity of the fall implies ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: SBISBI could not withstand the bear onslaught any longer and melted in the second part of the week below our near-term support at Rs 1,250. The medium-term view has been revised from positive to neutral with last week’s movement. The ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Maruti SuzukiThe medium-term up-trend that we had pointed out last week was nullified by the 16 per cent plunge in Maruti Suzuki last week. The stock is once more hovering around its long-term support at Rs 570. Since the low formed in July has not ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: InfosysInfosys was among the rare few that recorded a positive weekly close last ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ONGCONGC had been holding up well against the selling pressure until last week. But the 15 per cent decline last week has pulled the stock below the key support band between Rs 750 and Rs ...

STOCK MARKETS: Relentless selling causes blood bath on D-streetThe Sensex ended the week 20-24 October on a dismal note at 8701 by plummeting 1274 points or 12.7 per cent for the ...

Source:BL,BS......

Results: BOB,UBI,SunPharma,CorpBk,Jet,Adlabs,Adani,MundraPort etc

Sun Pharma Q2 net up 135%
Sun Pharmaceuticals has reported a 135% jump in its net profit for the quarter ended September '08 at Rs 512.8 crore.
Net sales rose 76% to touch Rs 1,177.8 crore from Rs 667.9 crore last year. The company's US generics business grew 195% to register sales of $122 million while international sales grew 141% to Rs 726.99 crore.
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BoB net up 21% at Rs 395 cr
MUMBAI: Bank of Baroda's net profit rose 21% to Rs 395 crore for the second quarter, despite making a provision of Rs 150 crore for its overseas oper
ations. A 23% jump in net interest income to Rs 3,551 crore and a 4% reduction in operating expenses to Rs 764 crore helped Bank of Baroda boost net profit in second quarter
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Union Bank Q2 net rises 31% to Rs 362 crA 49% rise in net interest income helped Union Bank of India show a 31% rise in net profit to Rs 362 crore in the second quarter ending Septe
mber 2008. Operating profits in the same period rose 32% to Rs 700 crore. Net income stood at Rs 975 crore, up from Rs 656 crore a year ago. However, its non interest income was down, although marginal by 1.7%, to Rs 283 crore in second quarter.
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Adlabs second quarter net loss at Rs 20.76 cr
Bata India Q2 net up 30% at Rs 12 cr
Karnataka Bank Q2 net up 22% at Rs 74 cr
Sun Pharma Q2 net up 2-fold at Rs 513 cr
Jet Airways posts loss of Rs 384.5-cr in Q2 FY 09
India Motor Q2 net up 73% at Rs 4 cr ICRA net up 20% at Rs 10 crore
Bharat Forge Q2 net at Rs 11 crore
Moser Baer India Q2 net at Rs 41.84 crore
Fem Care Pharma Q2 net up 84%
United Breweries Holdings Q2 net at Rs 15.36 cr
Hexaware Tech PAT up 21% in Q2

PNB Gilts Q2 net loss at Rs 8 cr
Union Bank Q2 net up 31% at Rs 361 cr
Corporation Bank Q2 net up 19% at Rs 191 cr
Bank of Baroda Q2 net up 21%

Phillips Carbon Black net profit declines 36.11% in the September 2008 quarter
Godawari Power & Ispat net profit rises 48.34% in the September 2008 quarter
Allcargo Global Logistics net profit rises 129.28% in the September 2008 quarter
Jai Corp net profit rises 13.83% in the September 2008 quarter
Adani Enterprises net profit rises 76.11% in the September 2008 quarter

Thermax net profit declines 17.69% in the September 2008 quarter
Moser Baer (India) reports net loss of Rs 41.84 crore in the September 2008 quarter
Torrent Power net profit rises 64.11% in the September 2008 quarter
Shipping Corporation of India net profit rises 50.78% in the September 2008 quarter
Mundra Port & Special Economic Zone net profit rises 162.89% in the September 2008 quarter

Central Bank of India net profit declines 22.21% in the September 2008 quarter
REI Agro net profit declines 37.94% in the September 2008 quarter
Corporation Bank net profit rises 18.68% in the September 2008 quarter
Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries net profit rises 55.59% in the September 2008 quarter
Dish TV India reports net loss of Rs 154.11 crore in the September 2008 quarter
Redington India net profit rises 14.04% in the September 2008 quarter

Karnataka Bank Q2 net profit at Rs 73.6 cr
Bank of Maharashtra Q2 PAT down at Rs 70.55 cr

Source: ET,BL,capitalmarket etc

25 October 2008

Sensex Explosion: Millstone Effect

Sensex journey from 7,000 to 20,000!
We bring to you the ET coverage on the milestones that the Sensex crossed, right from the day it touched the 7000 mark in 2005, till date.
January 8, 2008 Sexsex scales 21000 mark Markets on Tuesday opened at a strong note with Sensex touching 21000 mark in the opening trade for the first time.
October 29, 2007 Sensex crosses another milestone Age ain’t anything but a number’ went the title of a popular number in the nineties. Years later, the song echoed on Dalal Street as the Sensex tore past the psychological 20,000 mark towards the fag end of Monday’s session. It took the index a little over 20 years to reach the first 10,000 mark, but just a little over 20 months to double that score. The market may have turned riskier, messy politics could resurface, and oil prices are at a new high; but nothing seems to worry local investors, who feel the index can go up further.

While the mood on Dalal Street is celebratory, even the most diehard bulls are baffled by the ongoing frenzy. “Nothing has changed really,” says Rare Enterprises partner Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, who has been maintaining a bullish view for sometime now. Significantly, it’s the local institutions who are in the driver’s seat. As per BSE data, foreign funds have net sold over Rs 1,100 crore worth of shares over the last three trading sessions while local funds have net bought over Rs 2,300 crore worth of shares. Sceptics point to the fact that it is only a handful of stocks that is driving the market higher. Capital goods shares set the stage for the occasion as the Sensex vaulted to a fresh peak of 20,024.87 before settling at a closing high of 19,977.67, up 734.50 points, or nearly 4%, compared to the previous close. The 50-share Nifty hit a new high of 5,922.50 and went on to end the day at 5,905.90, up 203.60 points. According to Kotak Mahindra Bank CEO Uday Kotak, most foreign entities are reluctant to sell their P-notes , fearing they may not get a chance to buy back. He also felt that some Chinese money may be entering India through FIIs. Sections said the absence of big selling by FIIs has prompted domestic momentum players to buy, which along with some short covering has pushed the Sensex up. But what’s worrying some is that the market breadth on Monday was less than emphatic, with four stocks ending down for every five that rose. And concerns about valuations persist, though some players feel the old valuation parameters may no longer be applicable. “Valuations look a little above the historical fair value,” says ICICI Prudential AMC chief investment officer Nilesh Shah. “However, compared to China, they look fairly reasonable. We are seeing a paradigm shift in valuation benchmarks,” he added. Traded turnover on both segments combined was around Rs 1 lakh crore, a shade lower than Friday’s. Capital goods shares were the star performers of the day, with frontline stocks like Larsen & Toubro and Bhel rising 10% and 7%, respectively. Banking shares surged ahead of the monetary policy announcement on Tuesday. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries ended 5% higher after touching a record high of Rs 2,844 intra-day. IT MAY BE A HEADY COCKTAIL Market-cap touches Rs 62,16,907 crore ($1.58 trillion) 207 stocks touch new life high Trading in 297 stocks frozen for want of sellers Third biggest single-day jump Decent Q2 earnings, 9.4% growth A 2% rise in the RIL stock price will make Mukesh Ambani the richest Indian in the world, overtaking LN Mittal BUT THERE ARE RIDDLES IN THE MARKET PLACE Despite Sebi ban on derivative-linked PNs, F&O outstanding is Rs 1 lakh crore. Why is there no unwinding? Are more investors hedging? FII flow has been erratic in the last few weeks. If this persists, will local MFs, big corporates and insurance firms continue to buy? While FIIs have been booking profits, there is no big selloff. Why? Hedge funds are holding on to PNs, fearing they may not get a chance to get back. How long will the PN charm last? Market is getting narrower, riskier. Fewer stocks driving Sensex. And leveraged positions ballooning.

More @ Sensex journey from 7,000 to 20,000!
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Sensex Explosion: Millstone Effect
Biggest market losses
How to make the most of market mayhem
Tips for investors

Source:ET

24 October 2008

Results:BHEL,NTPC,Maruti,ITC,HUL,ABB,Tata Steel etc

Black FRIDAY, Worst fall; Sensex loses 1070 pts; Below 9K

Market suffers worst fall; Sensex loses 1070 points

Investors will remember October 24, 2008 as the blackest Friday the Indian stock market has seen and would want to put it behind them soon as possible.

In one of the worst trading sessions, investors helplessly saw their investments being wiped out. Those who were praying for a pull-back were left in the lurch as determined bears tore the market apart. The gains of the four-year bull-run were lost in just eight months. The biggest damage being suffered in last one month, with the indices losing over 36 per cent For traders, it was a nightmare as red blips flashed on their terminals.

The bear onslaught saw their stop-losses getting triggered. The party on the Dalal Street is over, but few would have expected such a savage end where share prices of blue-eyed large cap companies were reduced to that of smallcaps. Reliance Industries and ONGC were down 16.44 per cent and 15.01 per cent respectively. Indian equities were the worst performers.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex plunged 11 per cent or 1070.63 points to close at 8,701.07. The index touched a low of 8566.82. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 2584, down 12.20 per cent or 359.15 points. The broader index touched a low of 2525.05.

DLF (-23.96%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (-17.83%), Hindalco Industries (-17.82%), Tata Motors (-16.54%), Reliance Industries (-16.44%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (-16.04%) were the worst hit. BSE Midcap closed 8.38 per cent lower and BSE Smallcap Index ended 7.66 per cent down. The BSE Realty Index slumped 24.39 per cent and BSE Oil & Gas Index lost 14.97 per cent. Market breadth on BSE collapsed with 1835 declines against 247 advances. “Markets have fallen too much and moving up will take some time.

It can’t be said as of now whether the correction is over. Though we are in an oversold zone, news from the US markets and liquidity flows will govern the market,” said Dipen Shah, vice-president, private client group of Kotak Securities. However, this doesn’t seem to be the end of catastrophic fall on the Indian bourses. US stock futures hit lower circuit Friday an hour and half before the market opens. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 550 points, or 6.27 percent and Standard & Poor's 500 futures shed 60 points or 6.56 per cent. Earlier in the day, Japan’s Nikkei 225 ended -9.60 per cent lower, Kospi fell 10.57 per cent and Hang Seng declined 8.30 per cent.

European markets also witnessed sharp correction. FTSE 100 was down 8.96 per cent, CAC 40 was down 8.90 per cent and DAX plunged 9.58 per cent. Shah’s advice to investors is to not panic and sell out everything. “There are still fundamentally sound stocks available at attractive levels. Good quality stocks in largecaps should not be sold and must be accumulated with medium to long term view.” Markets opened with a sharp cut but caved in after the Reserve Bank of India announced its half-yearly economic policy review, wherein it left policy rates and reserve ratios unchanged. The central bank also revised lower GDP growth target to 7.5-8.0 per cent from 8.0 per cent earlier but maintained the inflation target at 7 per cent for FY09. The revision in GDP growth forecasts led to panic among investors, already shaken by the relentless sell-off by foreign funds. There were market reports that long only funds and domestic institutions were too on sell-side.

Deven Choksey, MD, K R Choksey, said, “The arbitrage funds became really active today. They were involved in some reverse arbitrage selling in cash
and buying in the derivatives markets. Secondly, shorting by the FIIs is still rampant and even SEBI's involvement had been in vain. A lot of damage has happened to the markets and it is too late even for the regulators to take some action. Also, RBI lowered the economic growth targets adding fuel to the fire.” In today’s trade, foreign funds provisionally sold equities worth Rs 1,431 crore while domestic institution bought equities worth Rs 514 crore. Finance Minister P Chidambaram tried to intervene and calm frayed nerves but that helped little and markets plunged even further. On the RBI’s policy review meet, Chidambaram said the decision to keep rates steady was on expected lines. He added that the central bank would infuse liquidity and if required, would adopt conventional and unconventional tools.

Hopes shattered; Nifty ends 13% down
Nifty, Sensex each down 10%, Unitech slumps 52%
Bears attack Dalal Street;Sensex down 1000 points
No respite for market despite FM appeal; Sensex below 9000
Market melt downs;Sensex breaches 9000
Bank Nifty slumps 10%, Nifty below 2700
Rupee slips to record low of 50.15 per dollar
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Carnage on Dalal Street
Sensex nosedives below 9K
PM blames 'three failures' for global financial crisis
Sensex tanks 1071 pts; Nifty plunges 359 pts
Mayhem on Dalal St... Sensex bleeds nearly 1,100pts
Reliance falls to 52-week low on below expectation results
Markets rout hits investors hard; Sensex down 1,070 points
Post Session Commentary - Oct 24 2008
Market mauled in global rout in equities, disappoi...

Source: Sify,ET,BS,BL, DP blog etc

23 October 2008

RIL Q2 net up 7% at Rs 4122 crore; Beats Street

RIL Q2 net up 7% at Rs 4122 crore

Reliance Industries posted 7.42 per cent rise in net profit of Rs 4122 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2008 as compared to Rs 3837 crore in the same quarter previous year. Total income increased to Rs 44,938 crore in the September quarter from Rs 32,211 crore a year ago. Analysts had forecast a net profit of Rs 3920 crore. Net revenue at the company, India's most valuable with a market value of $45 billion, grew to Rs 4479 crore from Rs 3204 crore. Reliance's refining margins for the quarter were $13.4 a barrel television news channels reported, well above the benchmark Asian Dubai crack margin, which averaged about $5.8 a barrel in the period.

On Thursday, Shares of Reliance Industries slumped 7.62 per cent to close at Rs 1215.25 in a weak market.

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Reliance Ind Q2 net up 7.4% at Rs 4,122cr

Reliance Industries (RIL), the largest private oil refiner in India, has posted a 7.4 per cent rise in profit at Rs 4,122 crore in the second quarter as the price of petroleum products shot up globally in line with crude oil prices.

During the quarter, RIL’s revenue from sale of refined petroleum products was up by 54 per cent at Rs 36,393 crore when the crude oil price was hovering around $100 a barrel. The revenue from exports has surged 51 per cent at Rs 29,823 crore. The company exports products mainly to the US, Europe and West Asia after its stopped sales in the domestic market.
The company, controlled by Mukesh Ambani, has registered a 38 per cent rise in net sales at Rs 46,113 crore, partly helped by a 19.9 per cent and a 56 per cent growth in revenue from petrochemicals and oil and gas segments, respectively. The net turnover has jumped 39.7 per cent to Rs 44,787 crore.
For the business expansion, mainly for the production of gas and oil from Krishna-Godavari basin, the company spent Rs 11,401 crore in the first six months of the fiscal, RIL said in statement.
“It has been an exciting quarter at Reliance Industries. We have started production of oil from the KG basin and soon will emerge as key hydrocarbons major. At Reliance, we are at the final leg of capital expenditure in our key businesses and will see cash flows from these investments in the following quarters. Leading economies across the globe are passing through some unprecedented times. Our businesses are gearing up to meet these emerging challenges,” said Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of RIL.
Beating market expectations, the company’s gross refining margin (GRM) stood at $13.4 a barrel, a premium of $7.4 a barrel over Singapore benchmark. It is well above the benchmark Asian Dubai crack margin, which averaged about $5.8 a barrel in the period.
Analysts tracking oil companies had predicted earlier that RIL, which controls around 22 per cent of India's refining capacity, too would report refining margins of less than $13 per barrel during the quarter, compared with over $15 per barrel in the June quarter. Motilal Oswal in its recent report predicted that the GRM would be around $13 a barrel.
Expenditure shot up 44.4 per cent to Rs 39,577 crore with the price rise of crude, the major raw material for RIL’s Jamnagar refinery, which contributes about 65 per cent of its revenues. The raw material cost stood at Rs 34,978 crore, up 60 per cent. The depreciation of assets and purchases of chemicals and catalysts in the quarter cost about Rs 2,401 crore.
The Jamanagar refinery has processed 8.21 million tonne of crude during the second quarter, while the company’s petrochemicals production remained flat.

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RIL's Q2 net performance may not lift sentiments

Reliance Industries — India’s largest company by market capitalisation and one of the most widely held stock — is unlikely to liven up the ma
rket when it announces its second-quarter result on Thursday. RIL’s profit for the quarter is expected to grow only marginally, or even dip, compared with the year-ago period. “Reliance has come out with steady results in volatile markets. However, RIL will struggle to touch two-digit profit figure this quarter because of the slowdown in refining margins. On the other hand, improved margins in petrochemical business could result in flat growth in net profit,” said an analyst working with a leading international brokerage. The petroleum refining industry has entered a slowdown phase globally, with the gross refining margins (GRM) — the differential between prices of crude oil and refined products — coming down from the previous quarter. As a result, RIL’s petroleum refining business, which contributes nearly two-third to its revenues, is likely to record a lacklustre performance in the latest quarter. Analyst estimates put RIL’s GRMs in the $11-$13 per barrel range, weaker from $15.7 posted in June 2008 quarter and $13.7 in September 2007 quarter. This means its refining profits will be lower on a year-on-year basis. In contrast, RIL’s petrochemicals business is expected to post healthy revenues and improved margins due to stagnancy in feedstock naphtha prices. Petrochemicals represent around 30% of RIL’s revenues and profits. The smaller segment of oil and gas production is also likely to perform well due to higher petroleum prices in the September 2008 quarter compared with the previous year. Weakness in the rupee is another factor that will impact RIL’s performance. Despite being India’s largest exporter, RIL has always had more imports than exports. Particularly, a major chunk of its petrochemicals is sold domestically within India. However, since the domestic petrochemical prices are linked to their import parity prices, RIL is likely to benefit from the weak rupee. “We expect RIL’s petrochemical EBIT to rise 5% y-o-y to Rs 2,130 crore mainly driven by a weaker rupee,” mentioned a Merrill Lynch report. Brokerage houses remain divided on whether RIL will report any profit growth this quarter. Among them, Angel Broking is the most bearish on RIL, projecting a 13% fall in its Q2 profits. As against this, Motilal Oswal and Sharekhan are the most bullish, estimating around 9% increase in RIL’s bottomline. The estimates of other brokerages like Prabhudas Leeladhar, Merrill Lynch, Citi Investment Research are somewhere in between. The company is expected to post good profits in the coming quarters because of sale of oil and gas from the Krishna Godavari (KG) basin.
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Reliance Industries Q2 net up at Rs 4122 cr

RIL Q2 net up 7.4%; high oil prices push revenue by 39.5%

Source:ET,Sify,BS,BL

Inflation Cools to 11.07 percent; Other Corp Stories

Inflation rate declines to 11.07% Inflation at 11.07 per cent
The wholesale price index rose to 11.07 percent in the 12 months to Oct. 11, below the previous week's annual rise of 11.44 percent, government data showed on Thursday.

The rate was also below a median forecast
of 11.35 percent in a Reuters poll of analysts. Inflation for the week ended Aug. 16 was revised up to 12.82 percent from 12.40 percent. The annual inflation rate was 3.07 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year. The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is released weekly. Meanwhile, the Finance Minister has assured that the fall in crude prices and the fall in commodity prices will be beneficial for the reducing the headline inflation. He agreed that at present the inflation rate was rather high but he is seeing moderation in the near future.
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Rupee at record low, seen testing 50 per dollar
What ails the Indian Rupee?
10 evergreen stocks to invest in
RBI survey projects 7.7% GDP growth
Don't sell stocks in panic: FM
S&P revises Tata Steel UK ratings

Obama views India's moon mission as a challenge
Moody's is 'negative' on Tata Steel's outlook
RBI eases ECB access for companies
SEBI asks FIIs to reverse shorts; Nifty regains 3000
No approach from Chevron on unit stake: Reliance

SEBI unhappy over FII short selling
Rupee dips 55 paise to new low of 49.85
It's worst ever October for markets in 29 years
SEBI tells FIIs not to lend stocks abroad
SEBI plans to review direct market access facility rules

Sensex ends nearly 400 pts down on weak global sentiment
SEBI told FIIs don't lend stocks abroad: FM
Inflation rate declines to 11.07%
ICICI Bank hikes home loan rates by 1% for new borrowers
RBI geared up to take steps to contain excess volatility in financial market
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Deadpresident Blog updates

Eveninger - Oct 23 2008
Nifty October 2008 futures below 3000
My Portfolio - Oct 23 2008
Idea Cellular
BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Oct 23 2008
NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Oct 23 2008
United Spirits Ltd
Sensex ends at 2 year low
Post Session Commentary - Oct 23 2008

Auto, metal shares lead 398-point Sensex slide
Pre Session Commentary - Oct 23 2008
Market to extend losses
Cautious guidance hammers US stocks

HT Media, SAIL
Real Crisis for real estate employees
TCS, Wipro, Bank of India, Jindal Saw, Indian Hote...
Reliance Infrastructure

NIIT, KPIT, IHCL, Opto Circuit, Shree Cement
Hero Honda,Hindustan Zinc,Jaiprakash Associates,PF...
Idea Cellular, Hero Honda, PFC, Hindustan Zinc, Ja...
Tech Mahindra Ltd, Wipro Ltd, Hindustan Zinc Ltd, ...
Ratnamani Metals, Sasken Communications, Hero Hond...
United Spirits
Indian Bank
Aluminium Sector

Source:ET,Sify, BS,BL, Deadpresident and etc

Results: RIL,Sterlite,GAIL,ACC,Grasim,PunjLloyd,Voltas,DrReddy, SesaGoa etc

New lows for Sensex,Nifty; Nifty below 3000 first Since July 2006

Market fails to hold; Nifty ends below 3000
Sensex tumbles below 10K
Markets tumble; Sensex ends below 9,800pts

Equities failed to sustain the recovery midway through on Thursday’s trade after SEBI asked foreign funds to cover their short sales and ended with huge losses Thursday.

The rebound was set off by short covering and supported by a sharp drop in inflation. However, the mounting negative sentiments across the global markets, meltdown in commodities and proved too strong to ignore. Indices opened with a sharp cut of over 5 per cent, in line with fall in global markets. The fall was led by metal scrips which were under pressure due to steep correction in international commodities prices. But bargain buying at lower levels helped recover partial losses. India’s annual inflation rate eased to 11.07 per cent in the week to Oct 11 from 11.44 per cent a week earlier. But the real trigger came after Finance Minister P Chidambaram said SEBI had directed foreign institutional investors to reverse their short sales. “SEBI has told them (FIIs) that it disapproves of lending to offshore entities, and asked them to reverse those transactions. I am told that those transactions are likely to be reversed over the next few days,” the minister said. This led to a strong recovery in the markets and the indices, which were down more than 3 per cent, soon made it to positive territory. But the euphoria didn’t last long and all the gains were wiped off.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 9,771.70, down 398.20 points or 3.92 per cent from Wednesday’s close. It touched a low of 9,681.28 and high of 10,260.55 intraday. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 2,951 down 3.98 per cent or 122 points. The index touched a high of 3,085.10 and a low of 2,917.15.

Second rung stocks were not spared either. BSE Midcap Index closed 3.2 per cent lower and BSE Smallcap Index declined 3.55 per cent.

“There is no word on restoring of short positions by the SEBI, except for their disapproval. If it indeed imposes a ban on short-selling by FIIs, there would be some sort of short covering. Our market is under pressure because there is selling all over the world. Eventually, a particular stock or the market as a whole would be evaluated on its fundamentals,” said Manish Sonthalia, vice president, equity research at Motilal Oswal. Rahul Sanghvi, Institutional Sales, Kantilal Chaganlal Securities, said, “FIIs can sell anything they have to but should avoid stock borrowing and lending practice outside the Indian jurisdiction. The fight between bulls and bears must be within the boxing ring. Investor confidence needs to be propped up and SEBI should publish more elaborate data on P-notes lending and borrowing activity.” India’s oil major, Reliance Industries posted 7.42 per cent rise in net profit of Rs 4,122 crore for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2008 compared to Rs 3837 crore in the same quarter previous year, beating analyst forecasts, helped by stronger than expected refining margins. Total income increased to Rs 44,938 crore in the September quarter from Rs 32,211 crore a year ago. The company’s refining margins for the quarter were $13.4 a barrel television news channels reported, well above the benchmark Asian Dubai crack margin, which averaged about $5.8 a barrel in the period. Shares of Reliance Industries slumped 7.62 per cent to close at Rs 1215.25 in a weak market. Grasim Industries (4.74%), BHEL (2.74%), ONGC (1.94%), Larsen & Toubro (2.43%) HDFC Bank (2.23%) and TCS (0.2%) ended higher. Tata Steel (-14.85%) suffered the sharpest cut. Losses in Tata Motors (-14.57%), Hindalco Industries (-13.10%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (-10.94%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (-9.77%) pulled down the indices. The four-day slide in metals gathered pace on recession fears. Copper and aluminium tumbled to their lowest in almost three years on Wednesday. Gloomy demand prospects and gains in the dollar to a two-year high have knocked commodities, many of which have collapsed since hitting record highs earlier this year, which in turn, dragged down the entire metal pack. BSE Metal Index closed 11.08 per cent lower. Market breadth on BSE was extremely weak, with 1908 declines and 622 advances.

Source:ET,SIfy. ,BS

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