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| MUMBAI: In 1999, when he was barely 18 years old and still a student, American Timothy Sykes decided to invest his $12,000 gift money in the Now, suppose an Indian investor had been struck by a brilliant flash of visionary foresight at the start of March this year. Starting March 2, which was the first trading day of the month, for the next three months he would know how each stock was going to behave and which one would end up being the best performer every single day. What would our investor have done with just Rs 100? Would he have made Mr Sykes look like a babe in the woods? On March 2, his Rs 100 would have been on Apollo Tyres, the top gainer of the day. At the close of trading, his investment would have been worth Rs 124 and he would have redeemed it to invest the entire amount in Monnet Ispat on March 3. The steel-maker’s stock would then have turned his Rs 124 into Rs 139. Thus aided by prophetic vision our investor would have gone on, watching his Rs 100 multiply manifold as he picked the best-performing stock each day for 57 trading sessions. As general elections drew nearer around the second week of April, there was a wave of positive sentiment towards the troubled export, infrastructure and real estate sectors. Stocks of companies such as Gitanjali Gems, Reliance Infra, Sasken Communication Technologies and Unitech rose smartly on hopes that a new government would come up with plans to infuse new life into these ailing business segments. On the morning of April 16, when India began voting to elect new representatives to the Lok Sabha, our fortunate investor’s Rs 100 had grown to Rs 36,812. He used the money to buy shares of Gitanjali Gems and exited the stock that evening, pocketing a gain of Rs 6,085.
Over the next month, as the world’s largest democratic exercise unfolded, our investor’s Midas Touch with stocks continued. On election results eve on May 15, he parked his money, now Rs 14,11,863, in Aban Offshore. In a little over five hours, he was richer by Rs 3,10,186. Again, on May 18, when trading had to be halted twice as the market showed its glee with the outcome of the election, our prescient investor had picked Indiabulls Real Estate. In less than two minutes of trading, the pre-market opening order for shares worth Rs 17,22,049 has become Rs 22,98,074. Indian investor better off On June 2, after two months of living the fantasy, our investor’s original Rs 100 had multiplied 2 lakh-fold and returned him a fortune of Rs 1,97,03,879. During this period, the benchmark Sensex index of the Bombay Stock Exchange had risen by a measly 50% while it took Mr Sykes over two years to multiply his investment by 137 times. Our investor may have been imaginary and his investments fantastic. But like English novelist Terry Pratchett remarked, “Fantasy is an exercise bicycle for the mind. It might not take you anywhere, but it tones up the muscles that can.” | ||||||||
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Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjee’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
There is still lot of liquidity sloshing around in the market, still a lot of interest in midcaps and smallcaps and that may well continue as we go into next week, despite Friday’s late sell-off in many midcap and smallcap names. Interest levels would still be very high. So, we could see a familiar pattern that at higher levels the market periodically runs into a little bit of rough weather and at lower levels it is constant buying which emerges every time the Nifty looses 100-150 points. It will partly depend on global markets. If global markets are rangebound more or less around these levels, then the Nifty will still try to go 100-150 points higher next week and then take it from there. We continue with the uptrend next week, albeit with mild chance of turbulence creeping in above 4,600. But that is not decisive or conclusive though.
Experts speak on the way the markets have rallied during the week
Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia, said, “For the first time in 12 years, I have been optimistic about
“From the standpoint of
Jonathan Garner, Chief Asian and Emerging Market Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley, said, “We have upgraded
“What we have seen throughout the year is the building of fund flows towards the emerging markets. Year-to-date, we have had over USD 40 billion of net inflows to various emerging markets funds that we track.”
Sanjay Shah, MD and Head-Institutional Sales, Morgan Stanley, said, “What has happened post the election results is that most large global long-only funds, who were waiting for results to come out and get some more clarity, have decided to go overweight on Indian equities. Some are in the process of doing so and some have already started doing so. That is where the incremental amount of interest is coming from. Global hedge funds have been increasing their exposure to
Ridham Desai, MD and Head-Equities, Morgan Stanley, said, “Our bull case does call for a significant room on the upside. That is predicated on the policy response from the government if it exceeds current expectations. Our bull case for this year is somewhere around 19,500 which is not very far from where we were at the peak of 2008.”
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rading ideas for next week Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends said, “Hindalco, which is a blue-chip company, has probably seen the worst. At current levels, if you have a three-year time horizon, the stock is a buying opportunity. You could make a reasonable amount of money. If there is a correction, you might like to add to your positions.” “In Reliance Capital, there is a possibility of volatile movement. But given the encouraging economic environment, the stock is itself trading considerably lower than its 2007-08 highs. It has corrected well, so you should be buying Reliance Capital on correction.” Rajat Bose of rajatkbose.com said, “The technical formation of PowerGrid Corporation suggests that the medium term outlook for this stock is pretty good. Within the short-term also, I expect some kind of movement in this stock. I expect this stock to go to Rs 137-143. I suggest a stop loss of Rs 118.” “Indowind Energy has formed a base and has started moving up in the recent past. However, the chart pattern suggests that there is considerable upmove left in the stock over the medium-term. I recommend the stock as a medium-term pick. My target is Rs 69-85 with a stop loss below Rs 33.” Vijay Bhambwani of bsplindia.com said, “For the coming week, the momentum base aggressive traders can initiate long positions in the June futures of Cairn India. As long as the counter remains above the Rs 260 levels, I suggest a stop loss at Rs 248 and a profit target at Rs 275-282.” “Buy Inox Leisure, which is a BSE-listed counter, around Rs 115-118 levels. A deep stop loss is suggested at Rs 95 and the profit taking is recommended at Rs 200.” *******************************
Nidhi Nath Srinivas, ET Bureau
Chicago, New York, London and Shanghai bourses may be rocketing. But for making money, one needs to catch the action in desi markets.
So I did a quick reccy and guess what I found. There is plenty happening right here under our noses.
Here's my list (in no particular order) of the top 10 commodities on the upswing. Keep an eye on them.
Gold and Silver: Gold is inversely linked to the dollar. So when dollar weakens, investors switch from currency to a hard asset like gold.
Gold is attractive to everyone: those who believe the economy will recover and customers will start buying again; and those pessimistic ones who believe the worst is still ahead.
For the latter, gold becomes a safe shelter for impending bad times. That is why pure gold crossed Rs 15,000 on Monday.
Silver, the poor man’s gold, has tracked gold and risen to a 10-month high. They will continue to remain firmly bullish.
Tea and Coffee: Tea production in India, the world’s largest producer, is down 15%, affected by very poor rains in Assam and West Bengal. That comes when there is a global shortage of 45 mn kg, pushing Indian tea prices to an unprecedented Rs 98/kg. Exports have dropped by 12 million kg between January and March 2009, compared to last year. As consumption both locally and across the world continues to rise, this bodes well for tea companies, traders and exporters.
Coffee has been hit by disease and poor rains, too. Berry borer pest has hit 13,000 ha robusta coffee crop in the main growing districts of Chikmagalur, Coorg and Hassan in Karnataka. Last year too the crop was hit, albeit by heavy unseasonal rains. Currently, coffee prices are so high in the domestic market that traders are making more money selling locally than exporting overseas.
Gur and sugar: Sugar is hot because India produced only 14.5 million t in 2008-09 while it consumed 21 million.
This deficit has to be filled by imports. But if sufficient sugar is not imported, prices will remain at Rs 26/kg ex-factory. In 2009-10, India is expected to produce 21 million t sugar, going by current sugar cane planting reports from Maharashtra and UP.
But all depends on the rains, which could change yields. Even if India does produce 21 mn t in 2009-10, the supply pipeline will still be badly stretched. Traders are already licking their chops.
If sugar is hot, gur is even hotter. Gur is now more expensive than sugar and no one has seen these prices of Rs 28/kg in a long, long time. There is tremendous demand for gur because it can replace molasses and be brewed to make country liquor. Right now, molasses are so expensive, that all desi vends have switched to gur. So gur can say hic, hic, hurray.
More@ Commodities: 10 hot money-spinners in India
Equity funds gain 31 pc in May; best in 17 years
MF industry's assets cross Rs 6 lakh cr mark
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