13 February 2010

FIIs cut exposure to India, shift to safer markets

FIIs cut exposure to India, shift to safer markets


MUMBAI: The Indian stock market has witnessed net foreign fund outflows of Rs 3,550 crore since the start of 2010, making it one of most badly

hit markets among emerging markets. A desire to shift a part of their money to safer dollar-denominated assets in the wake of the recent credit turmoil in Europe, concerns over further weakening of the rupee and stretched equity valuations have led foreign portfolio investors to cut their exposure to domestic equities.

With a net withdrawal of $754 million in 29 trading sessions (since January), India trails just behind Taiwan ($2,488 million) in terms of foreign outflows, according to Bloomberg. Indonesia and Thailand, with net outflows of $238 million $294 million respectively, are among the other Asian market that have seen foreign capital outflows since the beginning of this year. Around $3 billion has been redeemed from the entire emerging market cluster during the first week of February, say market experts.

While much preferred Asian equity hubs witnessed a sell-off, dormant markets like Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and Pakistan witnessed investments flowing in from foreign portfolio investors. South Korea logged inflows to the tune of $290 million since January while the surprise package was Japan, which witnessed inflows worth a whopping $18,868 million.

Even if one takes a shorter time-frame from February, Japanese funds were winners as they witnessed seven consecutive weeks of net inflows. Key benchmarks in Japan, Vietnam and Philippines currently trade at 6-12 times price-to-earnings (P/E).

In India’s case, despite a near-10% correction, the local market still commands a premium valuation of 20 times trailing P/E, making it a fairly-valued zone for any class of investor. “Japan currently offers investors a chance to gain on currency arbitrage. Moreover, asset prices (especially equities) in Japan are cheap. Astute cross-border investors will try to make most of this situation by moving their investments into Japanese shares,” said Gopal Agarwal, equities head, Mirae Asset Global Investment.

In India’s case, according to market experts, the sell-off has been more because of global factors and stretched stock valuations. The sell-off in key emerging markets like India started after US President Barack Obama decided to limit financial risk-taking by banks. The sell-off aggravated after the credit crisis in Greece and Portugal.

The hardening of the dollar also resulted in foreign investors shifting their rupee-based investments to dollar denominated assets. A rise in (dollar) value (against the rupee) increases the borrowing cost for foreign investors who had borrowed dollars to invest in Indian market. They exit their rupee investment at higher levels, pocketing currency value differential along with portfolio gains, if any.

“Investors will start coming back once the rupee moves up to 48 - 49 levels,” said Mr Agarwal. Echoing his views, Ambareesh Baliga, vice-president, Karvy Stock Broking said: “FIIs are likely to stay away from Indian shares until there is clarity in world markets. It may be 2-3 months before they start reinvesting in Indian shares,” he said.
According to Mr Baliga, while the market may not see a deep fall from current levels; it probably will be locked in a narrow range at lower levels. Investors should be cautious while investing in these markets, he added.



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Src: ET, DP Blog and etc


Record industrial growth strengthens case for stimulus exit

Record industrial growth strengthens case for stimulus exit


With the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rising 16.8 per cent on the back of record manufacturing growth, the pressure has increased on the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to consider an early exit from the stimulus measures of the past 15 months.

Manufacturing, with an almost 80 per cent weight in the index, grew 18.46 per cent compared to a 0.6 per cent decline in the same month in 2008.

The electricity sector, however, grew far more slowly at 5.4 per cent (up from 1.59 per cent a year ago), prompting analysts to suggest that the industrial recovery was not broad-based enough to merit an immediate withdrawal of stimulus measures.

The mining sector’s 9.5 per cent growth was below double-digit levels, recorded three times in the previous six months, but much higher than the 2.17 per cent growth achieved in December 2008.

Manufacturing growth was propelled by the robust performance of capital goods (38 per cent), consumer durables (46 per cent) and intermediate goods (21.7 per cent). In sharp contrast, consumer non-durables grew only 3.7 per cent, once again pointing to the narrow base of the industrial recovery.

Mining Mfg Elcty General
2008-09 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
2009-10 8.5 9 5.8 8.6
(Apr-Dec)

The low base effect — industrial output in December 2008 fell a quarter per cent — also contributed to the record December numbers. On a month-ago basis (with no seasonal adjustments), however, the December 2009 performance showed an industrial growth rate of 10.81 per cent, the highest since the industrial slowdown began in the third quarter of 2008.

On a month-ago basis (with no seasonal adjustments), however, the December 2009 performance showed an industrial growth rate of 10.81 per cent, the highest since the industrial slowdown began in the third quarter of 2008.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee expressed satisfaction at the numbers and said the third-quarter GDP growth numbers would be strengthened by the IIP figures. “It is quite encouraging and I do hope that the third-quarter GDP figures will also be encouraging…It will get reflected in the overall GDP,” Mukherjee told reporters.

Mukherjee’s statement comes after several positive economic indicators were released during the week, all of which augured well for private investment prospects. These indicators included the sharp rise in the business confidence index to a two-year high, a 14 per cent growth in exports and a healthy flow of foreign investments estimated at over $20 billion in the first nine months of the current financial year (compared to $21 billion last year).

Exuding similar optimism, D K Joshi, Crisil India’s principal economist, said: “It is definitely better than any forecast. The high growth in manufacturing and consumer durables have been sustained and that is a big positive surprise”.

Joshi added a caveat, however, observing that “The data is getting more and more broad-based but it still continues to be quite narrow”. He also pointed out that the base effect had a role to play in the December numbers and sustaining the high level would be difficult even though the month-on-month growth would continue.

Jyotinder Kaur, economist with HDFC Bank, differed. “The numbers are encouraging because they clearly point to a sequential spurt and it is across the board. Considering the strong performance in the past few months the numbers have reached a level where they are not purely driven by stimulus measures. So the growth, even though not this high, can be sustained with a gradual pull back of the stimulus,” said Kaur.

Some analysts also suggested that the number might lead to a rise in policy rates by the RBI before the fourth quarter policy rates.

“With industrial production growing at a record pace, capital goods production surging, business confidence high and foreign direct investment rapidly returning, there are now a number of signs that private investment is set for strong growth. This should facilitate the RBI putting a greater focus on inflation. The current situation no longer necessitates a repo rate of 4.75 per cent and a cash reserve ratio of 5.75 per cent, which are low by historical standards and more appropriate for a slow recovery scenario,” said Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya, economist with Moody’s economy.com.

The cumulative growth rate for April-December of the current financial year stands at 8.6 per cent against a low 3.6 per cent during the corresponding period in the previous fiscal. Industrial growth, on a cumulative basis, for the third quarter of the current fiscal stands at 13 per cent,compared to one per cent in the comparable period last year.

Consumer durables led the growth in manufacturing by expanding at a significant rate of 46 per cent in December 2009. The sector had contracted 4.2 per cent in the corresponding period in 2008. Consumer non-durables also showed a marginal acceleration in growth rate at 3.7 per cent compared to 3.2 per cent last year.

Intermediate goods, which were the worst hit due to the downturn and had contracted 8.9 per cent in December 2008, also posted a robust growth of 21.7 per cent in December 2009.



Src: Business-Standard

10 February 2010

Europe prepares to help Greece out of crisis

Europe prepares to help Greece out of crisis



BRUSSELS: EU leaders are under increasing pressure to lend support to cash-strapped Greece when they meet in Brussels on Thursday, with attention
Euro
increasingly on offering financial guarantees to soothe the markets.

On Wednesday, finance ministers from the European single currency area planned phone talks with European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet, a European Commission spokesman said, in an attempt to firm up a deal.

So sensitive are the markets that the news Trichet was leaving a central bankers' meeting in Sydney early to attend the EU summit on Thursday was enough to bolster speculation that a deal was in the works.

That in turn eased worries over Europe's debt troubles and brought most markets higher following a rally on Wall Street.

It's the kind of boost that the EU leaders are hoping to encourage.

"At the moment it's a vicious circle," one EU insider said. "You have the Greek crisis, then massive media coverage that then leads to market movements which makes the crisis worse, which leads to more media speculation."

The 27 heads of state and government will begin meeting at 10:15 (0915 GMT) Thursday for their emergency summit focussed on the economic crisis in Europe.

The meeting was called by new EU president Herman Van Rompuy, who is emerging from the self-imposed shadows where he has dwelt since his appointment to the post in December.

So far "there is no agreement" on a plan to help Greece, which is suffering under a massive budget deficit which is heightening fears that Athens will find borrowing increasingly difficult, one informed source said.

However the signs were multiplying that a support mechanism for Greece will emerge.

An official from the conservative party of German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that preparations were underway in Berlin for a support plan.

Germany is looking to lead an EU "firewall" to contain the Greek debt crisis, possibly by guaranteeing loans to calm fears of a government default, press reports said on Wednesday.

The Financial Times Deutschland said Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was working on both a bilateral basis and at the European level on putting together a package to help Athens.

A "standing facility" to show that money is available, a kind of cheque guarantee, is being considered to provide market confidence for Greece.

"If this can be done by providing some extra standing facility that may or may not in due course have to be used that would in itself be very helpful," one EU official said.

Athens is pressing on with efforts to slash expenditure and raise revenue to narrow its 12.7 percent deficit -- more than four times the eurozone limit of three percent of gross domestic product that a host of European countries are also flouting.

The Greek crisis has driven up borrowing costs for governments across Europe, with pressure mounting on a number of other heavily-indebted eurozone members, and sent the euro sliding against the dollar.

Royal Bank of Scotland economist Jacques Cailloux said a facility of 50 or 100 billion euros available to Greece would act as a useful riot shield.

Other forms of aid could also be considered.




Google gives Gmail a 'Buzz' to challenge Facebook, Twitter

10 Feb 2010, 0233 hrs IST, AGENCIES

Save Print EMail Share Comment Text:


SAN FRANCISCO: Google on Tuesday gave its free email service a "Buzz," adding Twitter and Facebook style social networking features.


Google Buzz product manager Todd Jackson equated the enhanced offering to "an entirely new world in Gmail" during an unveiling presentation at the Internet giant's headquarters in Mountain View, California.

Buzz began rolling out on Tuesday with Google Web-based email service getting updates about what friends are doing online and ways to share video, photos and other digitized snippets with others of one's choosing. As is the case with wildly popular microblogging service Twitter, Buzz lets users "follow" people that share updates with the world.

Google also unveiled a handful of new products designed to make the new social networking features suited to mobile devices, like smartphones based on Google's Android operating system.


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Google's move comes as a direct challenge to social-networking stars Facebook and Twitter, which thrive on enabling people to share experiences, activities and thoughts as they go through their days.

In addition to the Buzz features for Gmail, Google said it is launching a special mobile application for Buzz, as well as weaving Buzz technology into the mobile versions of its flagship Web site and its maps products. Google has tried to ride the social networking wave before, launching the Orkut social network in 2004.

But while Orkut is big in certain overseas markets, like Brazil, it has failed to attract as many users as social giants like Facebook and MySpace in the United States. In building a social network on top of an email product, Google is following in the footsteps of Yahoo, which has taken a similar approach in efforts to keep up with Facebook.

Yahoo! added a similar feature to its email program, Yahoo Mail, last year, allowing users to see whether friends have uploaded a photo to a photo-sharing site such as Flickr.

In what could signal an escalating battle between Google and Facebook, the leading social-networking service celebrated its sixth birthday last week with changes that included a new message inbox that echoes the Gmail format.

Gmail is the third most popular Web based email in the world, with 176.5 million unique visitors in December, according to comScore. Microsoft Corp's Windows Live Hotmail and Yahoo Inc's Mail were No 1 and No 2, with 369.2 million unique visitors and 303.7 million unique visitors respectively.



Src: ET

08 February 2010

Critical support at 4,650


Critical support at 4,650



Prices slid through last week in a series of high volume, high volatility sessions. The Nifty hit a low of 4,766 points before making a partial recovery to 4,882.05, for a week-on-week loss of 3.05 per cent. The Sensex closed at 16,357.96 points for a loss of 2.98 per cent. The Defty lost 4.8 per cent as the rupee lost significant ground.

The bearishness intensified towards the weekend with the market crashing on Friday. The Nifty hit an intra-day low of 4,692 points before closing at 4,718.35 on February 5 for a week-on-week loss of 3.35 per cent. The Sensex was down 3.46 per cent at 15,790.93. The Defty lost 4.05 per cent as the rupee dropped. (We have ignored the token trading on Saturday with less than Rs 2,000 crore of activity.)

Domestic institutions bought in moderate quantities, while FIIs sold heavily. Every index lost ground. Breadth was poor. Volumes were low but rose on Friday when the selling pressure increased. The BSE 500 was down 3.2 per cent while the Junior lost 1.6 per cent and the Midcaps 2.35 per cent. Declines were several multiples of advances.

Outlook: The market’s likely to show a negative bias with high volatility. There could be a sharp, temporary pull-back due to short-covering. The critical support level is around 4,650. On the upside, a bounce triggered by short-covering would run into resistance above 4,830.

Rationale: The 4,650 level is where the 200 Day Moving Average (DMA) is placed. If the 200 DMA breaks, there is cause to fear a new long-term bear market. If the market closes below 4,600, it is likely to slide till 4,525. If the 4,650 support holds, there’s a chance of a rebound to levels between 4,800-4,850. A new intermediate uptrend would be suggested only by a climb above 4,950, which breaks the current pattern of lower peaks.

Counter-view: The past few weeks have seen global events driving Indian equity values. As Budget expectations mount, the focus on domestic factors increases. There’s been Rs 9,500 crore of net FII sales in 2010. That may have flushed out “hot money”. If Budget expectations are “well-managed”, the market could rebound. Traditionally, February is a month of high volatility and positive bias. Support in the 4,600-4,650 zone and a rebound above 4,950 would be very positive signals.

Bulls & bears: Every major sector was down. Banking, realty, IT and metals all lost a lot of ground. The Bank Nifty dropped 4.95 per cent while the CNXIT lost 2.6 per cent. Several key index stocks including Reliance Industries saw their respective 200 DMAs broken, which is a bad signal. Pivotals such as Infosys, Tata Steel, DLF, SBI, all look set to lose some more ground before they reverse direction. High beta scrips in these sectors like Axis, Polaris, IBRE and HDIL look almost as weak.

Any northwards trend must start either with short-covering, or buybacks from sellers against delivery. It could happen next week. The rise, as and when it comes, will be sharp and sudden. In these circumstances, experienced traders will pick the most liquid stocks, set disciplined stops and keep excess margin to cope with volatility.

Among counters that look oversold, Hind Lever, Gail, Lupin and Maruti are “possibles” for fast recovery. Sugar is another sector, which has seen a significant trend reversal. It may be hitting support. Titan and Spice have bucked the trend for specific reasons but both scrips are likely to run into profit-taking.

MICRO TECHNICALS

SHREE RENUKA SUGARS
Current Price: Rs 180.5
Target Price: Rs 200


The stock has dropped from around the Rs 245 level where it peaked in early January. It is hitting excellent support between Rs 175- Rs 180. Most likely it will range trade between Rs 175- Rs 205 in the next few sessions. Keep a stop at Rs 175 and go long. Book profits above Rs 200.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
Current Price: Rs 981.7
Target Price: Rs 960


The stock has hit reasonably strong support after a downside breakout below the 200 DMA. The pattern suggests that a fall till Rs 960 is probable however, especially since there’s been volume expansion on breakout. Keep a stop at Rs 990 and go short. Cover below Rs 960.

POLARIS
Current Price: Rs 155
Target Price: Rs 165


The stock has hit strong support after a steep fall from Rs 200-plus. It has the potential to bounce from here, at least temporarily. Keep a stop at Rs 152 and go long. Book profits between Rs 165-170 because Polaris will hit strong resistance around that level.

DLF
Current Price: Rs 308.7
Target Price: NA


A key support was broken on high volumes. It has some support at Rs 300, at Rs 290, and again, at Rs 275. Set a trailing stop at Rs 315 and short. Book 33 per cent profit at Rs 300 and reset the stop to Rs 305. At Rs 290, book another 33 per cent profit and reset the stop at Rs 295.

HINDALCO
Current Price: Rs 138
Target Price: Rs 128


The stock has slid 14 per cent in the past three sessions on strong volumes. There’s strong indication that the long-term trend has gone bearish. It has a minimum downside till around Rs 128. Keep a stop at Rs 142 and go short.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)


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The alpha tracker 08-FEB-10
Alpha, the net performance of a component against the benchmark is an overlooked tool.
Expensive package 08-FEB-10
While an under-penetrated market coupled with robust expansion plans could churn better growth rates for Hathway, the IPO pricing is stiff.
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Huge opportunities, diversified portfolio, strong order book and good track record augur well for ARSS Infrastructure.
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Though volume growth continues to be robust, severe pricing pressure is impinging on profitability of telecom companies.
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The demand-supply imbalance in food articles provides an opportunity to invest in companies operating in the agriculture value chain.
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Revenues were higher than expected and grew 76 per cent q-o-q to Rs 774.5 crore.
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Concerns about the burgeoning sovereign debt of some European countries and weak US jobs data were overhangs on the broader indices.
'Mid caps across sectors are value buys' 08-FEB-10
Vinay Khattar is the head of research of the Wealth Advisory and Investment Services at Edelweiss and has been tracking markets and trends over the last ten years.
High volatility and sliding prices 08-FEB-10
February settlement will be an extremely tense one with sudden trend reversals and large intra-day swings.
Critical support at 4,650 08-FEB-10
If the 200 DMA at 4,650 breaks, there is cause to fear a new long-term bear market.
Analysts' corner 01-FEB-10
Bharti’s December 2009 quarter performance remained flat due to sequential fall in RPM (revenues per minute) by 7.8 per cent to 52 paisa.


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Top 5 picks | Techno Wrap: Signs of bear mkt

Analysts Picks: Dabur, Sterlite, PTC, Crompton Greaves

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Monnet Ispat: Buy at CMP Rs385 Fair Wealth
Vinati Organics: Buy in the range of Rs66-71 HDFC Sec
HT Media: Buy at CMP Rs150 KRChoksey

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Happy start, take care!


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DB Corp


Bank of Baroda


HT Media, SBI


Hindustan Unilever, Idea Cellular, LIC Housing Finance, Reliance Communications


Week Ahead - Feb 8 2010


IVRCL Infrastructure


Reliance Communications Ltd


Paper Products



Src: ET, BS, DP Blog

05 February 2010

Nifty may slip towards 3900 in medium term

Nifty may slip towards 3900 in medium term



MUMBAI: Benchmarks indices are poised near psychological support levels following correction in the global markets in the wake of debt concerns in Europe and jobless claims in the US.

Technical analysts hold bearish view on the market and expect Nifty to slip below 4000 levels in the medium term.

PA Rajan, technical analyst, MF Global while speaking to ET Now said that the correction is not over and Nifty may slip to 3900 levels.

“The correction is not over yet. Nifty is more volatile than other indices as its high-beta index. Nifty may find support at 4600 in the short-term but it may hit 3900 in the medium term,” Rajan added.

“We are bearish on the market and see Nifty slipping to 3800-4200 in next three-six months time. Investors should book profits and stay in cash while traders should go short on the market,” said, Sarvendra Srivastava, technical strategist, Emkay Global Financial Services.

“Till we don’t see consolidation around support levels of 4540, the Nifty is likely to slip lower and lower depending on the global economic situation. For positive momentum, Nifty should hold above 4960 levels,” said Bhavin Mehta, technical analyst, Reliance Money.

However, Michael Pillai, technical analyst, Nirmal Bang, is not expecting a major downturn from 4710 levels.

“Nifty trend is weak as the global sentiments are not in favour of the stock markets. If we look at the Indian markets, Nifty has fallen by only 11 per cent from their recent high of 5310 but technically trading near to its oversold region as the oscillator RSI is at 29 on the daily chart.

In the short term we don’t see a major downtrend from this current level of 4,710 and chances are that we could bounce back from the level of 4,660 / 4,580 levels. And to the extreme the fall could extend upto 4,410 / 4,140 if any major negative news flows from the Asian or Western countries or if the Indian budget is not encouraging.

In the near term strong resistance is seen around 4830 / 4950 levels and this downtrend could reverse only if Nifty holds above its 50-day moving average,” Pillai said.


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Biggest bubble in history is growing every day


Real estate, stocks, credit. China sure has its share of bubbles. Oddly, little attention is paid to the biggest one of all. China’s currency
Yuan
reserves grew by more than the gross domestic product of Norway in 2009. Its $2.4 trillion of reserves is a bubble all its own, one growing before our eyes with nary a peep out of those searching for the next big one. The reserve bubble is actually an Asia-wide phenomenon. And we should stop viewing this monetary arms race as a source of strength. Here are three reasons why it’s fast becoming a bigger liability than policy makers say publicly.

One, it’s a massive and growing pyramid scheme. The issue has reached new levels of absurdity with traders buzzing about crisis-plagued Greece seeking a Chinese bailout. After all, if economies were for sale, China could use the $453 billion of reserves it amassed last year to buy Greece and Vietnam and have enough left over for Mongolia. Countries such as the US used to woo the Bill Gross’s of the world to buy their debt. Now, they are wooing governments. Gross, who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management, is still plenty important to officials in Washington. He’s just not as vital as the continued patronage of state asset managers in places like Beijing.

You have to wonder what folks at the International Monetary Fund are thinking these days. Their aid packages tend to come with messy requirements, such as ‘get your economy in order’. China’s are merely about scoring resources or geopolitical points. We have already seen China throw lifelines to Wall Street giants, including Morgan Stanley. Entire countries seem like the natural next step.

China’s huge arsenal of reserves is increasing its global influence. The trouble is, China is trapped in an arrangement of its own making. As China and other Asian nations buy more and more US treasuries, it becomes harder to unload them without causing huge capital losses. And so they keep adding to them. “This is a titanically large foreign-exchange trade,” says David Simmonds, London-based analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland Group. “It’s the biggest one history has ever seen and there’s nowhere for these reserves to go.”


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China aims to diversify out of US treasuries into other assets and commodities. The question that governments are grappling with is which markets are deep enough to absorb China’s riches? Gold? Oil? Euro-area debt? The Madoff family’s next Ponzi scheme?

The challenge for China alone is like trying to park an Airbus A-380 super-jumbo in a Volkswagen. Like all pyramid schemes, there’s no easy end in sight and things could end badly. If the dollar collapses, panicked selling by central banks looking to limit losses would shake global markets more than the US credit crisis has.

Two, reserves are dead money. The wisdom of currency stockpiling came from the chaos of 1997. Speculators sensed authorities in Thailand were sitting on few reserves, and they were right. Their attack on the Thai baht set the stage for an Asian meltdown. Governments spent the 2000s determined not to repeat the mistake.


Src: ET

Negative global vibes send stocks into a tizzy

Negative global vibes send stocks into a tizzy

Top 5 picks | Mid-term picks

Pre-Market: Gap-down opening likely as global weakness persists

Screen looks ugly

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Heard on the Street


Advisory fees not enough to hard sell NTPC offer



What explains the less-than-enthusiastic response to the NTPC issue? If some fund managers are to be believed, the paltry fee paid to lead managers is not quite pushing them to go the extra mile that makes the difference between a successful and not-so successful issue.

This is not about a particular set of lead managers, but could well turn out to be the case with the upcoming issues, managed by other investment banks as well.

"In the past, power companies with ambitious plans merely on paper have been able to raise astounding sums from the market, and are still quoting at exorbitant valuations. There is no reason why a company with a solid track record like NTPC could not have been hard-sold to investors at better valuations," says a fund manager.

The government may save a few crores of rupees on advisory fees, but could end up losing much by way of indifferent response from global investors, brokers say. Then again, why do investment banks agree to work for a pittance in the first place, argue some others. So much for a free market.

Bulls off St, busy hosting investor conference

As FIIs continue to play hide and seek, domestic institutions, which otherwise provide some succour in choppy times, are also proving to be indifferent participants. In February so far, local institutions have net-bought shares worth Rs 483.60 crore.

The buzz is that the spate of investor conferences in and outside Mumbai are keeping these institutions out of action. Nomura held its investor conference in Mumbai last week. Macquarie is holding an investor conference in Mumbai and JP Morgan is hosting its event in Goa. The BoA-Merrill Lynch conference is to kick off on February 15 in Delhi.

Amongst the larger domestic broking firm, India Infoline is also holding its conference in Mumbai. Equity sales and dealing teams at other broking houses are awaiting the return of their domestic clients.

Durable cos seen ‘safe bet’ ahead of Budget

Shares of consumer durable companies like Whirlpool, TTK Prestige and Bajaj Electricals are being viewed as ‘safe haven’ by a certain section of the trading community ahead of the Budget.

The rationale being that this is one of the few sectors that is unlikely to be impacted by any withdrawal of stimuli, and neither is in the running for any exemptions. Savvy players accumulating these shares believe these companies have a smaller but more steady clientele.

Of course, good cash flows, a strong demand which is reflected in the month-on-month numbers are a definite positive, say analysts. Whirlpool shares ended the day flat at Rs 135.75, TTK Prestige at Rs 433.30 (down 1%) and Bajaj Electricals at Rs 179.20 (down 2%) on BSE on Thursday in an otherwise weak market.


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Daily News Roundup - Feb 5 2010


Friday fright on the street


Onmobile Global


Hindustan Dorr-Oliver


Biggest drop for bullion metals in three months



Src: ET, DP blog and etc

04 February 2010

Heard on the Street and Morning calls

Heard on the Street

FIs lap up Bharati Shipyard on open offer

hopes


Institutional investors have turned active in Bharati Shipyard shares amid speculation that the company may eventually go for a second open offer, after hiking its stake to nearly 46 per cent in oil and gas drilling services firm Great Offshore through the recently-completed open offer and subsequent secondary market acquisitions.

Leading foreign broking house Credit Suisse (Singapore) bought 7.6 lakh shares, or 2.8 per cent, recently to raise its stake to 6.6 per cent of Bharati Shipyard’s equity.

The stock has been on a roll in recent times and has more than doubled in the past two months. On Wednesday, it closed one per cent up at Rs 333, with a total of 10.8 lakh shares changing hands on BSE.

Dealers tracking the stock say if Bharati Shipyard increases its stake further to 51 per cent or beyond through the creeping acquisition route, it would be mandatory for the company to make another open offer under SEBI guidelines. However, this could not be confirmed from company officials.

Crompton, Kirloskar Oil withstand selling pressure

Shares of engineering firms like Crompton Greaves and Kirloskar Oil Engines have managed to withstand the sell-off in second-line shares over the past couple of weeks. Dealers tracking the counters say that fund managers already holding shares in these companies have been topping up their exposure.

Disappointing quarterly numbers from Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is prompting many fund managers to cut exposure to that company and deploy the money in other companies in the sector with a better earnings visibility, they say.

Punters use FII stake buy rumours to ramp up Selan

Some operators have been trying to ramp up shares of oil exploration company Selan Exploration Technologies by floating rumours that a couple of foreign funds would be buying stake in the company.

If market sources are to be believed, European bank ‘Beer Clay Capital’ and American hedge fund ‘Bone Pickens Capital’ are eyeing a stake — through secondary market purchase — in the company.

Sources close to the company denied knowledge of any such move by the above-mentioned institutional investors. According to analysts, Selan Exploration may need to raise capital to start and increase production in its Bakrol and Indrora fields. Shares of Selan Exploration ended 0.8 per cent lower at Rs 403.50 on the BSE on Wednesday.

Contributed by Apurv Gupta, Vijay Gurav & Shailesh Menon


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Top 5 picks of the day | Mid-term picks

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Daily News Roundup - Feb 4 2010


Lackluster opening on the cards


HEG


Oil India


Investment Ideas


Daily Newsletter - Feb 4 2010


Src: ET, DP blog etc

03 February 2010

20 Indian banks in top 500 global banking list‎

20 Indian banks in top 500 global banking list


NEW DELHI: They may not be bankers to the world yet, but Indian banks have clearly set their eyes on that. In a year that saw the worst recession
for the global banking industry with several big daddies collapsing, resilient Indian banks have improved their brand value rapidly. There are 20 Indian banks in the Brand Finance® Global Banking 500, an annual international ranking by UK-based Brand Finance Plc, this year.

The State Bank of India (SBI) became the first Indian bank to break into the world’s Top 50 list, according to the Brand Finance study that saw HSBC retain its top slot for the third year in a row.

The study, released on Sunday and made exclusively available to ET in India, used discounted cash flow methodology to arrive at a net present value (NPV) of the trademark and associated intellectual property: the brand value. SBI’s brand value more than tripled to $4,551 million, up from $1,448 million in 2009 helping it grab the 36th spot in the list. ICICI Bank, the country’s largest private bank, joined it in the Top 100 list with a 130% jump in its brand value at $2,164 million.

Other big gainers in brand value include IDBI Bank (190%), Bank of Baroda (162%) and Union Bank of India (148%). The cumulative brand value of 20 Indian banks stood at $13,053 million. The 15 Indian banks that figured in last year’s list saw a whopping 130% rise in their combined brand value.

The number of Indian banks in the global list had more than tripled last year to 19 from six in 2007. Differentiation through strong brand and customer base value is becoming a key economic lever for Indian banks. This is as true in financial services as in consumer products.

“Indian banks need to recognise their inherent brand value potential and SBI’s remarkable performance by breaking into the top 50 financial services brands offers a lesson for others,” said Unni Krishnan, MD of Brand Finance India. SBI seems to be fast transforming into a brand-led business, with a broader, more holistic and sophisticated approach to managing the brand and stakeholder relationships.

“Brands act as a common glue that binds all the business functions, especially in financial services firms, resulting in greater coherence of strategy, service excellence and sustained business performance,” said Unni Krishnan, MD of Brand Finance India.

Asian aura shows Over all, HSBC remained the biggest bank brand for the third year in a row with its brand value rising 12% to $28,472 million. This must have been a relief to the bank that saw its brand value erode by 28% in 2009 league table.

The study notes that global banking sector has begun to show tangible signs of recovery, with the world’s 500 most valuable banking groups growing by 62% in terms of market capitalisation and their brand values cumulatively increasing by 49%.

“This year’s BrandFinance® Global Banking 500 shows how significant the recovery of global banking brands has been,” said David Haigh, CEO of Brand Finance plc. The total brand value of the Top 500 banks stands at $716 billion, up 49% over 2009 and 4% higher than in 2008, prior to the crisis.

“There has been a significant shift in the balance of power globally away from the US and towards banks in emerging markets,” said Mr Haigh.

The Asia region contributed 17% to the total global brand value, logging 31% growth in 2010. However, the number of Asian banks in the global 500 has dropped to 102 in 2010 from 120 the previous year.

Almost all banks in the Asian Top 10 have increased in brand value. However, this rise is not as strong as witnessed in more developed regions like Europe and North America, as they recover from the crisis.

Although the number of banks reported in the Top 500 from Asia has decreased, many banks in the region tend to be well capitalised and in countries such as India, banks have become far more competitive.

As such, the normalisation of markets has not had such a relatively profound increase in brand value in the Asian region. As was the case last year, the Asian Top 10 is dominated by Chinese banks with the gap between the major Chinese banks and the rest widening.

The biggest movement in the league table was made by SBI, which has seen its brand value more than triple to sixth biggest bank brand in Asia.

Another notable entrant is Standard Chartered, which has stepped up its Asian presence in recent years, saw a robust 59% growth in its brand value.

While the brand value increased, market capitalisation of the top 500 came down by 20% since 2008.
The US dominance of global banking has declined further with a decrease in the number in the global 500 down to 85 from 95 in 2009. The number of European banks in the list increased from 170 to 197, while that from the UK decreased from 24 to 22.

This suggests that the recovery on the European continent in particular France, Spain, and Switzerland has left British banks standing. The league table also notes that bank brands in emerging markets are slowly closing the gap. The top 20 bank brands in 2010, originate from nine countries, one more than 2009. It is for the first time that a Russian bank has made the top 20 (Sberbank) which has seen significant growth.

The Middle East has seen a 117% growth in brand value, based on high demand for Islamic banking products and services. On the other hand, Central America has seen a 40% decline in brand value. European bank brands have recovered significantly compared to the North American and Asian markets (78%, 30% and 26% growth, respectively).
Banks in the Pacific, including Australia and New Zealand have seen a recovery with growth of 58%.


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Heard on the Street

HDFC board members buy shares via stock

options


This one could help in keeping the morale of its shareholders high, even amid falling share prices in the current market. Some of the board members of HDFC, the country’s premier housing finance company, have exercised their stock options to buy shares, thus displaying their confidence in the company. According to disclosures filed with stock exchanges, a few high-profile board members of HDFC, including JJ Irani and Bimal Jalan, acquired shares in small numbers through exercise of stock options even while the share price has been declining.

BS Mehta, another board member, also acquired a few thousand shares last month through the same route. According to analysts, their moves would send positive signals to the investors about high growth potential of the company which is the leading player in the housing finance sector. The stock has declined substantially from the recent high of Rs 2,681.6 on January 5 to Rs 2,383.3 on Monday. It, however, closed 1.5% higher at Rs 2,419 on Tuesday.

Going gets tough for JRG Securities on St
The going has not been too good for Kochi-based JRG Securities, whose board representatives have been removed from its Dubai-based subsidiary JRG International Brokerage DMCC. The reasons cited for this are “low shareholding and non-participation in business matters”. The Gulf-based subsidiary has also told Dubai Multi Commodities Centre Authority and Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange to officially remove the name of JRG Securities from their records based on the decision taken by the board.

JRG International Brokerage is jointly owned by Hazza Bin Mohammed, an Arab national holding about 50%, Babu Lonappan, a NRI holding about 10% equity, and JRG Securities, which held about 40% in the subsidiary. JRG International Brokerage unveiled a rights issue last year which was subscribed to by only Hazza Mohammed and Babu Lonappan. This, in effect, decreased the shareholding of JRG Securities, while increasing the ownership of other partners. According to sources, after the rights issue, JRG Securities was not actively participating in the proceedings of the subsidiary.

“Its (JRG Securities) shareholding has come down to 20% and we are not really expecting any director board services from them,” said a senior official of JRG International Brokerage. On being queried as to whether JRG Securities would exit the subsidiary, the official said, “That is for JRG Securities to decide.” Senior officials of JRG Securities were not available for comment. Shares of JRG Securities ended 0.7% lower at Rs 40.60 on BSE on Tuesday.

Contributed by Vijay Gurav & Shailesh Menon

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