Sensex ends 36 pts up in volatile trade

Sensex ends 36 pts up in volatile trade
Thanks to a sharp rally in global markets, equities opened on a rousing note on the major Indian bourses this morning. However, after staying high up in the positive territory for about half an hour, the market reversed trend and plunged into the red in mid morning trade.
Stockometer
Though there were a few sharp rallies thereafter, the market struggled to hold gains and kept faltering due to strong resistance encountered by a few front line stocks. On expectations that Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates, US, Asian and European markets remained fairly strong today. Back home, short-covering due to expiry of October series derivatives contracts resulted in the sharp jump of some blue chip stocks.
Top gainers
Remaining volatile right through the session, the Sensex ended the day with a gain of 36.43 points or 0.4% at 9044.51, way down from a high of 9297.76 it had posted in early trade. The barometer touched a low of 8894.34 in morning trade.
Worst losers
The Nifty index of the National Stock Exchange closed with a gain of 0.46% or 12.45 points at 2697.05. In intra-day trades today, the Nifty hit a high of 2781.25 and a low of 2631.90.
Scrip Scan
Metal stocks posted impressive gains on sustained buying support. Mirroring the impressive surge of these stocks, the BSE Metal index moved up by as much as 6.52% today. Oil, auto and consumer durables stocks also had a good outing.
Experts' Talk
Realty, pharma, FMCG and capital goods stocks declined. Bank, power, IT and PSU stocks displayed a mixed trend. After a positive start, midcap and smallcap stocks slipped and suffered sharp losses.
Hindalco, Tata Motors, ACC, Sterlite Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Tata Power, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Infosys Technologies, Tata Steel, BHEL and ONGC closed with strong gains. Bharti Airtel (1.85%) also ended on a firm note. NTPC, ITC and Maruti Suzuki posted modest gains.
Reliance Communications went down by as much as 10.85% today. Satyam Computer Services, Suzlon Energy, Siemens, DLF, Idea Cellular, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Cipla and Reliance Petroleum closed with heavy losses.
Cairn India, Tata Communications, Ambuja Cements, SAIL, BPCL, Power Grid Corporation, HCL Technologies, Zee Entertainment, RPower, Unitech and Hero Honda recorded sharp losses today.
Biocon, Wockhardt Pharma, GMR Infrastructure, TTML, Indian Overseas Bank, Apollo Tyres, Axis Bank, Raymond, Chennai Petroleum Corporation, Nirma, Cummins, Bharat Electronics, IDBI, LIC Housing Finance, IDFC, Mundra Port, RNRL and IFCI went down sharply today.
Jindal Steel flared up by 16.15%. Bharat Forge surged 11.75% to Rs 110. Oracle Financial Services, Moser Baer, Canara Bank, Asian Paints, Power Finance Corporation, Kotak Bank, Asian Paints, Bank of India, Reliance Capital, McDowell, Lupin and Ashok Leyland closed with sharp losses today.
The market breadth was negative. Out of 2,498 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,319 stocks closed in the negative territory. 1,104 stocks posted gains and 75 stocks ended flat.
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China cuts rates, Fed and others to follow
Cairn ties up $1.8 bn for oilfields
Firms seen cutting jobs by 25% in next 10 days: Report

GMR Inds Q2 net surges
High provisions hit RBI's Q2 net profit
Mahindra Q3 net profit down 35 per cent
JSL Q2 net loss at Rs 69 cr
Britannia Industries Q2 net up 9.8 pc at Rs 53.30 cr
EID Parry India Q2 consolidated net up 9-fold at Rs 761 cr


Cairn India's Q3 net profit at Rs 81.44 cr on YoY
Top Asia refiner Sinopec Q3 net profit slides 39 pc
Bharati Shipyard Q2 net up 29 pc at Rs 33 cr
Eicher Motors Q2 PAT at Rs 45.2 cr
Eicher Q2 net up 205 per cent

Cairn India ties up $1.8 bn for Rajasthan oilfields
Rupee improves further by 21 paise against dollar
Jhunjhunwala, Shankar Sharma differ on mkt direction
Damani, Chokhani see mkt recovery in '09
India Inc's Sep '08 report card

Other income boosts Cairn India Q3 profit
M&M consolidated Q2 net down 5%
Telenor buys 61% stake in Unitech Wireless for Rs 6,120 cr

Results:
Bannari Amman Sugars reports net profit of Rs 30.07 crore in theSeptember 2008 quarter
JSL reports net loss of Rs 68.64 crore in the September 2008 quarter
Vesuvius India net profit rises 22.93% in the September 2008 quarter
Sical Logistics reports net loss of Rs 41.93 crore in the September 2008 quarter
Divi's Laboratories net profit rises 50.88% in the September 2008 quarter

V-Guard Industries net profit declines 83.40% in the September 2008 quarter
Cairn India reports net profit of Rs 81.44 crore in the September 2008 quarter
Everonn Systems India net profit rises 210.04% in the September 2008 quarter
Bharati Shipyard net profit rises 28.78% in the September 2008 quarter
Gulf Oil Corporation net profit declines 65.83% in the September 2008 quarter
Titagarh Wagons reports net profit of Rs 17.84 crore in the September 2008 quarter

S.Kumars Nationwide net profit declines 53.99% in the September 2008 quarter
Alok Industries net profit declines 1.91% in the September 2008 quarter
Gujarat Flourochemicals net profit rises 44.58% in the September 2008 quarter
Vakrangee Softwares net profit rises 50.55% in the September 2008 quarter
Gokul Refoils and Solvent reports net profit of Rs 11.37 crore in the September 2008 quarter

Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company reports net loss of Rs 103.97 crore in the September 2008 quarter
Adhunik Metaliks net profit rises 15.69% in the September 2008 quarter
Tata Tea net profit rises 18.67% in the September 2008 quarter
National Fertilizer net profit rises 42.81% in the September 2008 quarter

Karur Vysya Bank net profit rises 43.38% in the September 2008 quarter
TVS Electronics net profit rises 100.00% in the September 2008 quarter
GMR Infrastructure net profit rises 170.88% in the September 2008 quarter

Source:Sify,ET,BS,BL,CM

Sensex ends 500,Nifty ends 160 pts up on Muhurat end

Markets make auspicious start, gain over 5 pc
28 Oct, 2008, 2025 hrs IST, ECONOMICTIMES.COM

Samvat 2065 gave some sort of breather to the markets as key indices gained by more than 5% on the auspicious day. The strong uptick in Dow Jones futures and the robust performance of other Asian markets helped spread a positive mood after several days of brutal hammering.

The 30-share Sensex closed the day with a gain of 498.52 points or 5.86% while the broader S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) closed the day with again of 160 points at 2,684.80. Tuesday's trading was a special trade held to celebrate the start of the calendar year for the Hindu community.

Beaten down sectors such as realty and metal witnessed some buying with their respective indices gaining the most. All the other sectoral indices ended in the green gaining in the range of 4% to 7%. M&M, J P Associates and Hindalco were the top gainers gaining around 12% each. Considered being a sacred day for the broking industry broker members did trades mainly on their proprietary books.

Muhurat trading is historically a trader's day which depict some interest in the small cap stocks and sell in the next trading session enabling the markets to fall in the next trading session. The Advances and the declines were inclined towards the advances with around 80% rising 18% losing and around 2% stocks remained unchanged. Hansal Thakkar, lalkar Securities said, "With the investors making a voyage through the painful times in the markets- with the Sensex losing more than 30% in the month of October it self. It is a good beginning for the investors for the New Year. However it would be to early to make a call on the markets bottom and much is depedend on the US elections and how the liquidity situation pans out across the globe."

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Sensex ends above 9K in Samvat 2065; Realty up 10%

Sparkling start to Diwali, Sensex above 9k

India's Sensex Rises, Ending Four-Day Decline; Reliance Gains

Source:ET,MC,IIFL,BB

Samvat 2064 till now: The laggards and gainers

Samvat 2064 till now: The laggards and gainers

From Samvat 2064 till now the Sensex and Nifty have lost 57%. Economic slowdown, recession fears & financial crisis have widespread across the globe. Stocks like Unitech, Suzlon, Reliance Infra, and Sterlite Industries have lost over 80%. However, Sun Pharma, Hero Honda, and HUL have gained 5-18%. We have list below top gainers & losers from Samvat 2064 to 2065.

Returns
Sensex -57%
Nifty -57%
CNX Midcap -54%
BSE Small Cap -62%

Best Performers
Sun Pharma 18%
Hero Honda 6%
HUL 5%

Worst Performers
Unitech -90%
Suzlon -88%
Reliance Infra -80%
Sterlite Ind -80%
Tata Steel -80%
DLF -80%
Hindalco -78%
Tata Motors -77%

Index Heavyweights
Samvat 2064 To Now Returns
Reliance -63%
ONGC -50%
Bharti -38%

Worst Performing Midcaps
Sobha Developers -88%
IVRCL Infra -88%
Parsvnath Develop -86%
Anand Raj -85%
Century text -84%
Amtek Auto -83%
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Mkts end lower; Sensex tests 8000 but sees V-shape recovery
Sebi hikes promoter creeping acquisition limit to 75%
Valuations attractive, buy now: Experts
How are life insurance cos dealing with Oct mkt mayhem?
See Nifty support at 2200: Daryl Guppy

Source:MC

Other Results

Tata Power Q2 net rises marginally
Tata Power, India's largest private power utility, has seen a marginal rise in its fiscal second quarter net profit at Rs 261.93 crore, compa
red to Rs 257.43 crore last year, although the Mumbai-based company said the two quarters weren't comparable due to a change in accounting policies. Its revenue in the same period rose 45% to Rs 1,958.9 crore due to rise in fuel prices, Tata Power said in its statement announced after the results. "Our half yearly results reiterate continued stability of the company's operations. The company has organized loans for all its key projects and that mitigates the effect of the recent global financial crisis," said MD Prasad Menon. "We continue our focus on sustainable and renewable energy spanning wind power, hydro and geothermal. Some of our recent associations and growth plans have been focussed around this effort," he added. During the quarter, Tata Power announced its partnership with the Royal Government of Bhutan to develop the 114 megawatt hydroelectric power project over Dagachhu through Druk Green Power Corp and acquired a 26% stake in the project.
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Gitanjali Gems Q2 net up 31 pc at Rs 35 cr, acquires GECL
Blue Star Q2 net at Rs 45 cr
NMDC Q2 net up 48 pc at Rs 945 cr
Videocon Industries Q4 net dips 29 pc at Rs 175.53 cr
JM Financial Q2 net falls 53 pc at Rs 20.89 cr
Other income boosts ICICI net
KEC International net dips 47%
Vakrangee Softwares net profit rises 51%
Areva net up 8% at Rs 52 crore

MRPL net dips 92 pc at Rs 24.92 cr
Godrej Industries Q2 net loss at Rs 9 cr
Tata Tea Q2 net up two-fold at Rs 217.76 cr
Blue Star net flat at Rs 45 crore
Tata Tele trims Q2 net loss to Rs 47 crore

T.V. Today Network net profit rises 41.68% in the September 2008 quarter
UTV Software Communications reports net profit of Rs 4.12 crore in the September 2008 quarter
Videocon Industries net profit declines 29.29% in the September 2008 quarter
Nitin Fire Protection Industries net profit rises 98.63% in the September 2008 quarter
Bhushan Steel net profit rises 38.26% in the September 2008 quarter
Nagarjuna Construction Company net profit rises 25.71% in the September 2008 quarter
NMDC net profit rises 47.64% in the September 2008 quarter

Indraprastha Gas net profit rises 17.11% in the September 2008 quarter
Tata Communications net profit declines 62.78% in the September 2008 quarter
K S Oils net profit rises 58.84% in the September 2008 quarter
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation net profit rises 36.57% in the September 2008 quarter

SourceET,CM etc

SBI Q2 net up 40%, but sees margins shrinking;ICICI Bank Q2 net up 1.1% at Rs 1014 cr

SBI Q2 net up 40%, but sees margins shrinking
SBI Q2 net up 40% at Rs 2260 cr

State Bank of India (SBI) on Monday reported a higher-than-expected net profit of Rs 2,259.7 crore for the quarter ended September 30, up 40.2%, from Rs 1,611.4 crore during the same quarter of the previous year. The results for the second quarter include the business of State Bank of Saurashtra which was merged with SBI in August 2008.

Shares of the bank were hit hard after the bank warned that net interest income had peaked and said that it raised provisions to Rs 911 crore from Rs 247 crore in the previous quarter because of the government's farm-loan waiver. The bank's chairman OP Bhatt said SBI's net interest margins would come down marginally, but would continue to be above 3%. The net interest margin for the second quarter was 3.2%. The bank's deposits grew by Rs 57,861 crore (67.9%) for the quarter, with the share of current and savings account growing 0.3% to 39.7%. Advances of the bank grew Rs 51,020 crore or 162.4%. In retail business, the bank's home loans grew 23.5%, auto loans by 30.48% and education loan by 43.81%. SBI Card, however, suffered a loss of Rs 27.9 crore for the quarter. The bank's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) as per Basel I norms is 12.14%, and as per Basel II norms it is 11.5%. "We are well above the prescribed norms for CAR and our capital adequacy would increase by 259 basis points once the borrower ratings of corporates are complete," Mr Bhatt said. Consolidated net profit grew 11.50% to Rs 2,458.04 crore for the second quarter against Rs 2,204.56 crore in the year-ago period, while the total income rose 26.41% to Rs 27,083.47 crore. For the six-month period ended September 30, SBI reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 4,138.06 crore against Rs 4,128 crore in the year-ago period. According to Mr Bhatt, interest rates have peaked and should soften in the coming months. "If you look at moderating inflation and (factor in) the steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India, interest rates should start showing the softening trend," he said. When asked about the SBI's likely steps on interest rates, Mr Bhatt said that the bank would rather follow the wait-and-watch policy. "Interest rates would depend on a cluster of decisions taken by the regulators," he said. Underlining the soundness of the Indian banking system, Mr Bhatt said that there are very few instances of people changing their accounts from private banks to public sector banks. "Total growth in the industry is Rs 2,40,000 crore," he said, adding that flight of capital from private to PSU banks, if at all, would not be more than 1% of the total business.
SBI to open 1,500 or more branches
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ICICI Bank Q2 net up 1.1% at Rs 1014 cr
Mumbai: ICICI Bank reported a 1.1 per cent rise in quarterly net profit, beating forecasts, as higher other income and lending rates offset investment losses and slowing credit growth.

The country's leading private-sector bank, which is also listed in New York, said July-September net profit was Rs 1014 crore ($203 million), up from Rs 1003 crore a year ago.

A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast a 2.3 per cent dip in net profit to Rs 980 crore for the fiscal second quarter.
Deposits are safe: ICICI Bank CEO
ICICI has borne the brunt of investor concerns about the Indian bank sector's exposure to the global financial crisis. Since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers last month, it has repeatedly said it was well-capitalised and deposits were safe.

Earlier, shares in State Bank of India tumbled 13 per cent to 1-½ year lows on worries about bad debt provisions even after the country's largest bank beat forecasts with a more than 40 per cent rise in net profit.
State-run SBI, which raised $4.1 billion in a rights issue in March, said July-September net profit rose to Rs 2260 crore from Rs 1610 crore a year earlier. A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast fiscal second-quarter earnings of Rs 1870 crore.

Shares in ICICI fell 15 per cent in July-September, lagging the benchmark index's 4.5 per cent drop and the sector index's 9.5 per cent rise.
At Friday's close of Rs 310, ICICI shares were down 42 per cent in October.

Other income boosts ICICI net
ICICI Bank's insurance arm records loss of Rs 466 cr in H1
Expense cut helps ICICI report flat net, beat estimates
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Source:Sify,ET

Sensex dips below 8k in Intraday; Short covering helps cut losses from nearly 1000 to 200 pts

ALErt:SEBI allows creeping acquisition beyond 55 per cent
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Short covering helps cut losses; Sensex regains 8K

In a relief to investors amid the ongoing festival of lights, Indian stock market benchmarks staged a strong come-back Monday to end off lows . Auto and FMCG stocks ended with major losses while realty closed higher.

Market began the week on a lower note in line with other global markets. Sustained selling from foreign funds and panicky retail investors saw indices breaching important support levels. But short covering by bears ahead of October F&O expiry Wednesday saw a V-shaped recovery in indices to such an extent that indices jumped over 80 per cent from day’s lows.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 8,509.56, down 191.51 points or 2.20 per cent. The index bounced back around 80 per cent from its intra-day low of 7,697.39. Earlier in the day, the benchmark breached another psychological support of 8,000. National Stock Exchange’s Nifty bounced back 271.45 points from the day’s low of 2252.75 to close at 2,524.20. The broader index touched ended 59.80 points or 2.31 per cent lower from its previous close.

There was no respite for tier II and III stocks as sustained selling saw them underpeform benchmarks. BSE Midcap Index closed 4.18 per cent lower and BSE Smallcap Index fell 5 per cent. “After Friday’s fall, market was in oversold territory and traders were loaded with short positions. They didn’t want to rollover positions in such a volatile market and hence covered shorts mainly in index pivotals ahead of F&O expiry,” said a technical analyst with a local brokerage firm.

Tata Motors (-13.95%), Mahindra & Mahindra (-13.71%), Jaiprakash Associates (-10.33%), Grasim Industries (-9.57%), Tata Power (-8.75%), State Bank of India (-8.63%) and Larsen & Toubro (-7.13%) were the major Sensex losers. Bharti Airtel (5.99%), Reliance (5.83%), Reliance Infrastructure (3.97%), Reliance Communications (3.62%) and Sterlite Industries (3.40%) were the top gainers. After being beaten down black and blue, shares of Unitech surged to settle 37.58 per cent higher. There are reports that the company has sold stake in its subsidiaries to raise capital. Suzlon Energy too opened higher but soon gave up gains to end flat at Rs 46.95. The global outlook is still bearish as recessionary fears weigh on sentiments.

US stock futures were indicating another day of correction Monday. Dow Jones futures were down 2.17 per cent, Nasdaq Stock futures were 2.12 per cent lower and S&P 500 stocks futures declined 2.66 per cent. Indian markets will remain shut Tuesday on account of Diwali, but the exchanges will conduct “Muhurat” trading between 6:15 pm and 7:15 pm. Results Announced Today Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals' net profit fell 92.49 per cent to Rs 24.92 crore for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2008 compared with Rs 331.74 crore for the quarter ended Sep 2007. Total income increased 43.15 per cent to Rs 13,464.88 crore in Jul-Sep quarter of 2008 against Rs 765.52 crore in the same quarter of the earlier year. The company shares ended down 7.23 per cent to Rs 33.35 on BSE.

State Bank
of India, on standalone basis, posted a net profit of Rs 2259.72 crore for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2008 against Rs 1611.42 crore in the same quarter of 2007. Interest earned stood at Rs 15566.50 crore against Rs 11616.28 crore previous year. Interest expended was Rs 10111.15 crore against Rs 7853.36 crore same quarter last year. The company shares ended down 8.63 per cent to Rs 1,056.60 on BSE.
ICICI Bank posted a net profit of Rs 1,014.21 crore for the quarter ended on Sep 30, 2008 against Rs 1,002.60 crore for the quarter ended on Sep 2007. Interest earned increased to Rs 7,834.98 crore in Jul-Sep quarter of 2008 compared with Rs 7,516.47 crore in the same quarter of previous year. Interest expended stood at Rs 5,687.36 crore in the September quarter of 2008 from Rs 5730.47 crore in the earlier year. The company shares ended up 2.03 per cent to Rs 316.30 on BSE. Areva T&D India has posted a net profit after tax of Rs 52.31 crore for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2008, up by 8.89 per cent against Rs 48.05 crore for the quarter ended Sept 2007. Total income increased 34.15 per cent to Rs 586.62 crore in Jul-Sep quarter of 2008 compared with Rs 437.30 crore in the same quarter of previous year. On Monday, the company shares ended up 2.76 per cent to Rs 160.15 on BSE. Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company posted net loss to Rs 103.97 crore for the quarter ended Sep 30, 2008 against the net profit of Rs 18.77 crore for the quarter ended Sep 2007. Total income increased to Rs 255.52 crore in the Jul-Sep quarter of 2008 against Rs 173.75 crore in the same quarter of previous year. On Monday, the company shares ended down 8.94 per cent to Rs 149.20 on BSE.

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Samvat 2064 ends on a volatile note
Sensex recovers after testing 8K

Source:ET,BS,BL,Sify

Happy Diwali 2008

WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY DIWALI

TO HAVE GOOD HEALTH AND WEALTH AND

GOOD RETURNS IN EQUITY MARKET

***************************************************************************

May you all attain full inner illumination! May the supreme light of lights enlighten your understanding! May you all attain the inexhaustible spiritual wealth of the Self! May you all prosper gloriously on the material as well as spiritual planes!

Diwali Wishes

May this light of happiness, light up your life.May this diwali be the most sparkling and lightening.The sights and sounds filling up your heart with joy and happiness.
Wishing you and your family a very Happy Diwali

With Love & Cheers

Srisai & Team

30 stocks at 8700 pts; Stock analysis from ET

30 stocks @8.7K
Jaiprakash Associates
Last traded price: 6052-week high (Rs): 510% loss from 52-week high: 88

All 30 stks with Return details:30 stocks @8.7K
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Tips to tide over the financial crisis
If you feel the entire family’s savings have gone, remember the original purpose was for joint increment.
Cut in promoter wealth Millstone Effect Bank's report card
Global Financial Crisis Meltdown Effect: US Markets
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Living in interesting times27 Oct, 2008, 0610 hrs IST, Karan Sehgal
The softening in short-term interest rates should continue for some more time, as it may lead to lower interest rates in future and fuel investment growth once again.

Just the right mix 27 Oct, 2008, 0603 hrs IST, Santanu Mishra
New business from overseas and an optimal blend of technology & people will drive Allied Digital’s earnings, going ahead.

On a treasure hunt 27 Oct, 2008, 0551 hrs IST, Kiran Kabtta
Alembic offers an attractive investment opportunity as it is restructuring its operations to unlock the hidden value in its business.

The Domino Effect 27 Oct, 2008, 0547 hrs IST, Kiran Kabtta
The prices of many commodities have returned to their ’05 levels. Such a huge decline in commodity prices, and that too, over a short period, raises questions about their future direction.
Bull's Eye: Views on stocks 27 Oct, 2008, 0541 hrs IST

Have Money? Go Buy 27 Oct, 2008, 0534 hrs IST, Krishna Kant
Just as the last leg of the bull run was not justified by India Inc’s inherent earning potential, the recent capitulation appears to be equally irrational. Krishna Kant tells you why...

Small Wonders 27 Oct, 2008, 0529 hrs IST, Krishna Kant
ETIG is back with the 2008 edition of India’s 100 Fastest Growing Small Companies...

Softening interest rates to fuel investment growth 27 Oct, 2008, 0515 hrs IST, Karan Sehgal
The RBI took a U-turn in its policy of containing inflation, as liquidity almost dried up in the money market.

2008: Crisis year Survive crisis I Tide over the financial crisis
Banking not a bad investment 20 Oct, 2008, 0606 hrs IST, Karan Sehgal
Going by FII actions, it seems that banking is not that bad an investment, the IT sector has not peaked out and pharma is the best defensive bet.

Share buybacks in Asia trump bonds 20 Oct, 2008, 0602 hrs IST
Though bonds offer greater discounts than shares, Asian companies are quickly buying back shares hit by the global financial meltdown, instead of repurchasing debt.


Source:ET

Index Outlook and Stk analysis from BL,BS

Index Outlook

Sensex (8701.1)
It was a week when all one could do was, watch awe-struck, as stock prices fell in to a bottomless pit. The Sensex effortlessly sliced though one support level after another despite efforts by the troika of the Finance Ministry, SEBI and the RBI to stem the decline. The 100 basis points cut in repo rate, meltdown in commodity prices and lower WPI numbers were shrugged aside as Sensex tumbled 1274 points lower.
There is still a week to go before October ends and FIIs have already pulled out close to $3 billion. Tally for outflows in 2008 has crossed $12 billion. Turnover was brisk, mainly in the derivative segment. The expiry of the October contracts in the derivative segment is expected to pass quite smoothly since the open interest is quite low around Rs 50,000 crore. Low Nifty put call ratio indicates that short positions are being squared at lower levels.
The bear onslaught on Friday dragged the Sensex below 9700 to an intra-week low at 8566. We have stressed the importance of 9700 often in our previous columns. It occurs at 61.8 per cent retracement of the structural up-move from 2001. The structural trend in the Indian markets stays up as long as this level holds.
However, these are long-term support levels. We will wait for two more weekly closes below 9700 to ascertain that Friday’s move was not a false break-out. Conversely, a weekly close above 9700 will make the medium-term view positive again. The support at 8800 (June 2006 trough), indicated in our long-term outlook review was also penetrated on Friday. Next support on the long-term chart is the October 2005 low at 7700.
As per E-wave counts the first target for the C wave from 21206 peak is at 10207. But the continuation of the decline last week has made it apparent that this wave could unfurl to the next target - that is 6887. Minor counts of the down-move from 15579-peak too indicate that if the Sensex declines below 8000, the next halt would be in the zone between 6200 and 6800.
For the week ahead, it needs to be remembered that Sensex is hovering at a key long-term support and a rebound is possible anytime. Supports for the week would be at 8566, 8152 and then 7582. Resistances would be at 9900 and then 10750. A close above the second resistance is needed to make the short term view positive.

Nifty (2584)
Nifty too has penetrated many important long-term supports on Friday. It declined below 2950 as well as the June 2006 trough at 2595. Since the first target of the third wave from the 6357 peak at 3070 has already been penetrated emphatically, it is time to take a look at the next target that is 2093. However, a recovery from current levels that results in a weekly close above 3070 will mitigate the bearish medium-term view.
For the short-term, Nifty can decline to 2525 or 2276. Resistances for the week are at 2972 and then 3254. Close above the second resistance will make the near-term view positive. Failure to move past the first resistance will be a cue for traders to initiate fresh short positions.
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Nifty future in oversold zone

Despite a positive opening for the markets, bears had the last laugh as markets swooned under selling pressure to touch its three-year lows. Predictably, even the Nifty future breached its all-important technical support levels during the week. Both the Nifty October and November futures closed with a huge discount to the spot, which suggests that despite the steep fall, a chunk of the short positions may have been rolled over to November month. So far, about 40 per cent of Nifty positions have been rolled over to November series.
Follow-up
We had presented two strategies on Nifty last week. i) Going long on Nifty future with adjustable stop-losses and ii) Buying December 3500 call. While the first strategy may have provided some profit opportunities, the second strategy would have resulted in sharp value erosion. We suggest traders switch from the December 3500 call to the 3000 strike, which may earn decent profits when the market witnesses a relief rally.
Outlook
We had indicated a support level of 2600 for Nifty futures last week in this column. Now that it has breached the 2600 level, its next support level appears at 1890, which is significantly lower from the current levels. While any steep fall from the current level can take the Nifty lower to its support, there is a minor support at 2300 level.
Alternately, if Nifty reverses from its current levels, it will face resistance around 3050 level.
Any breach of this level, can take Nifty Future to 3350, 3650 and even to 3850 levels. However, we feel the real pivot point for Nifty future is 4350 levels. Only on a move above that level can one turn bullish. The market, however, has been in the oversold zone for quite some time. Recommendation
Retail traders are better off staying away from markets given the sharp intra-day swings that can wipe away gains in no time. However, traders with a high risk appetite can consider a straddle strategy. This can be set by buying Nifty November 2750-call and put.
Traders can hold the position till the expiry of November derivative contracts. Nifty Nov 2750 call closed on Friday at 179.10 and the put ended at Rs 367.25. Straddles are a good strategy to use when a trader believes that the underlying’s price will move significantly, but is unsure about its direction. But for the option spread to move in the money, the underlying asset price has to make a decisive move in either direction. This means, if the price remains stuck in a narrow range, it may not be profitable.
The maximum loss would be limited to the premium paid, whereas the profit can be unlimited if the underlying makes the desired movement.
FIIs trend
The cumulative FII positions as a percentage of total gross market position on the derivative segment as on October 23 increased to 38.72 from October 18 level of 37.83 per cent. This indicates that retail and domestic players have reduced their activity in the market.
Foreign institutional investors have hiked their positions in index futures, but have considerably reduced their exposure to stock futures.
They now hold index futures worth Rs 11,847.25 crore (Rs 11,725.08 crore) and stock futures worth Rs 11,909.55 crore (Rs 14,095.31 crore). Their holding on index options declined marginally to Rs 17,018.53 crore (Rs 17,988.85 crore), according to latest NSE data.

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Wkly Tech Analysis: Let markets find their own bottom

INSIGHT: Time to ‘think global, invest local’The ongoing carnage in the stock market has certainly taught us all that managing an equity portfolio is not just about keeping abreast of what’s happening in India. It is much more than that; after all, who could have imagined that ...

STOCK MARKETS: When panic rules investorsConcerns about a cash crunch and stalled loans batter the stock of realty major Unitech by 49 per cent in a single day. Reports about an accidental breakage in a single turbine blade in the US send the Suzlon Energy stock crashing by 39 per cent ...

STOCKS: Hero Honda: HoldShareholders of Hero Honda can continue to hold the stock. At the current market price of Rs 752, the stock trades at a price-earnings multiple of about 13 times its annualised April-September ‘08 ...

STOCKS: Indo Tech Transformers: BuyIndo Tech Transformers has so far overcome the hurdles of slowing order flows and higher borrowing costs better than similar small sized ...

INVESTMENTS: Nifty BeES: BuyInvestors with a two-three year perspective can consider accumulating Nifty Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Nifty BeES), an exchange-traded fund that mimics the S&P CNX Nifty Index in returns, at its current market price of Rs 269. ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Reliance IndustriesWhen titans such as Reliance Industries shed 22 per cent in a week, what chance do the lesser stocks stand? RIL penetrated the key long-term support at Rs 1,250. The next support on the long-term chart would be at the long-term trend line at ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Tata SteelThere was no let-up in the selling pressure on the Tata Steel counter and the stock declined another 28 per cent last week. Immediate supports on the chart are the 2004 troughs at Rs 156 and then Rs 136. But the ferocity of the fall implies ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: SBISBI could not withstand the bear onslaught any longer and melted in the second part of the week below our near-term support at Rs 1,250. The medium-term view has been revised from positive to neutral with last week’s movement. The ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Maruti SuzukiThe medium-term up-trend that we had pointed out last week was nullified by the 16 per cent plunge in Maruti Suzuki last week. The stock is once more hovering around its long-term support at Rs 570. Since the low formed in July has not ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: InfosysInfosys was among the rare few that recorded a positive weekly close last ...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ONGCONGC had been holding up well against the selling pressure until last week. But the 15 per cent decline last week has pulled the stock below the key support band between Rs 750 and Rs ...

STOCK MARKETS: Relentless selling causes blood bath on D-streetThe Sensex ended the week 20-24 October on a dismal note at 8701 by plummeting 1274 points or 12.7 per cent for the ...

Source:BL,BS......