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12 March 2010

Today IIP Data

Views on NMDC FPO

Fortis a potential bet

Nifty to face resistance at 5180-5200

Market awaits IIP, Sensex holds 17000

Watch RIL, Sterlite... RIL breakout above 1035-1045 levels. Sterlite breakout above 829-835 levels. Keep Watch.

Buy NMDC for Purely Long-term investment. Buy Fortis Healthcarefor Short-Term gains.

Src: ET and DP blog

11 March 2010

Forbes rank: Mukesh, Mittal in World's top 10 billionaires club

Forbes rank: Mukesh, Mittal in World's top 10 billionaires club

WASHINGTON: Mukesh Ambani and Lakshmi Mittal figured among world's top ten billionaires as Mexican tycoon Carlo Slim Helu beat Americans Bill

Gen Y CEOs |
World's Top 10 CEOs |
India's top 10 biz houses |
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Men & women behind India Inc's top guns

Gates and Warren Buffett to become the wealthiest person on earth. ( Watch )

Besides fourth ranked Reliance Industries chairman Ambani and fifth placed steel czar Mittal, four other Indians were among top 50 in 2010 Forbes list of the World's Billionaires released Wednesday with as many 49 Indians joining company with the planet's 1,011 richest people.

With his fortune swelling to an estimated $53.5 billion, up $18.5 billion in 12 months, Slim surged ahead of Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates, who had held the title of world's richest 14 of the past 15 years, the US business magazine noted.

Gates, now worth $53 billion, is ranked second in the world. He is up $13 billion from a year ago as shares of Microsoft rose 50 percent in 12 months. Buffett's fortune jumped $10 billion to $47 billion on rising shares of Berkshire Hathaway. He ranks third.

Eleven countries have at least double the number of billionaires they had a year ago, including China, India, Turkey and South Korea.

Fourth placed Mukesh Ambani with a fortune of $29 billion has global ambitions, Forbes said. So has his younger brother Anil Ambani ranked 36 with a $13.7 billion fortune.

Fifth ranked Lakshmi Mittal with a fortune of $28.7 billion is "looking to expand in his native India; wants to build steel mills in Jharkhad and Orissa but has not received government approval," Forbes noted describing him as "London's richest resident" who oversees ArcelorMittal, world's largest steel maker

Azim Premji with a fortune of $17.0 billion was ranked 28. "Software czar chairs $5.5 billion (revenues) Wipro, country's third-largest software exporter. Reported jump in net profits in last 2 quarters, signaling a rebound for US-dependent outsourcing giant."

Shashi & Ravi Ruia brothers took the 40th spot with a fortune of $13.0 billion. Their "$15 billion (revenues) Essar Group has weathered downturn and embarked on an expansion drive in all its businesses, including steel, oil and power."

Last among the Indians in top 50 was Savitri Jindal, ranked 44th, with a fortune of $12.2 billion. She took over as head of O.P. Jindal Group after her husband died in a helicopter crash in 2005.

Among other Indians on the billionaires list were Kushal Pal Singh (74), Kumar Birla (86), Sunil Mittal (87), Anil Agarwal (113), Adi Godrej & family (148), Shiv Nadar (201), N.R. Narayana Murthy & family (616), Rahul Bajaj (880) and Vijay Mallya (937).

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Mukesh Ambani richest Indian for second year: Forbes

Mukesh Ambani, chief of petrochemicals giant Reliance Industries (RIL), has retained the title of being the world's richest Indian for the second consecutive year with a networth of $29 billion in the Forbes' list of wealthiest people on the planet.

Mukesh has been ranked fourth in the global list, topped by Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim ($53.5 billion), up from the seventh spot in 2009.

Leading the pack of 50 Indians in the list, he has added over $9.5 billion to his networth in the past 12 months.

Mukesh is followed by steel czar Lakshmi Mittal, who ranks fifth on the global list with a fortune of $28.7 billion. Mittal, has gained over $9 billion in the last year.

Wipro chairman Azim Premji, the next Indian on the list, is far below at the 28th place with a networth of $17 billion, although his rank has skyrocketed from the 83rd position last year with an addition of over $11.3 billion.

The richest Indian's brother, Anil Ambani, who was ranked at the 34th position in 2009, slipped two positions below to the 36th spot despite an increase of $3.6 billion in his networth at $13.7 billion.

Shashi and Ravi Ruia, the promoters of the Essar Group, were ranked at the 40th position, up from 86th last year, with a net worth of $13 billion.

The cumulative wealth of Indian billionaires has jumped by $118.9 billion and now stands at about $227.9 billion.

The Indian presence has doubled to 50 (from 24 a year ago) in the club of world's billionaires. "The world has 1,011 10-figure titans, up from 793 a year ago," Forbes said.

The league of 10 richest persons in the world now includes just two Indians -- Mukesh Ambani and Lakshmi Mittal.

There are, in fact, five resident Indians (up from two last year) among the 50 richest persons in the world, as Mittal is an Indian citizen, but resides in the UK.

Nine positions among top 100 from across the world are occupied by Indians, which include Mukesh Ambani (4th; $29 billion), Lakshmi Mittal (5th; $28.7 billion), Azim Premji (28th; $17 billion), Anil Ambani (36th; $13.7 billion), Shashi & Ravi Ruia (40th; $13 billion), Savitri Jindal (44th; $12.2 billion), K P Singh (74th; $9 billion), Kumar Birla (86th; $7.9 billion) and Sunil Mittal (87th; $7.8 billion).

Besides, the top 20 Indians on the global rich list include Anil Agarwal (113th; $6.4 billion), Pallonji Mistry (129th; $5.8 billion), Adi Godrej & family (148th; $5.2 billion), Gautam Adani (167th; $4.8 billion), Dilip Shanghvi (173rd; $4.6 billion), Shiv Nadar (201st; $4.2 billion), G M Rao (297th $3.2 billion), Malvinder & Shivinder Singh (297th; $3.2 billion), Uday Kotak (316th; $3 billion), Kalanithi Maran (342nd; $2.9 billion), Subhash Chandra, Micky Jagtiani and Indu Jain ranked at the 354th spot with a net worth of $2.8 billion each.

The list is dominated by Americans, two of whom have been ranked at the second and third positions -- Bill Gates and legendary investor Warren Buffett.

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Fund manager's guide on D-Street

Five Android phones that are expected in India soon

China overheating fears grow, spurring tightening talk
11 Mar 2010, 1805 hrs IST, REUTERS

Chinese consumer inflation spurted to a 16-month high in Feb and economic data displayed broad-based strength. Greece financial crisis | Lighter side of recession

India aims to be world's fastest growing economy

Forits jumps 5% on Parkways Holdings deal

Market awaits IIP, Sensex holds 17000

Pradip Overseas IPO Review

Purvankara Projects

Bharti Airtel Ltd

ILFS Transportation Networks IPO Analysis

Src: ET and DP blog etc

10 March 2010

NSE enables investors to access US market

NSE enables investors to access US market

NEW DELHI: In a major development that will allow Indian investors access to the American market, the country's top bourse NSE has decided to

Correction offers opportunities
Not a good time to start buying
How to do stock trading?
Decoding demat: Trade secrets

begin trading in futures contracts of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 - the two key indices of the US market.

At the same time, Nifty - NSE's benchmark index comprising India's 50 top blue-chip stocks - would be traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange of the US.

The listing and trading arrangement for these indices, which are subject to regulatory approvals in India and the US, was announced by National Stock Exchange and CME in a joint statement on Wednesday.

Besides the cross-listing and licensing agreements, the two bourses have also entered into a "memorandum of understanding with respect to other areas of potential co- operation including related to development and distribution of financial products and services."

NSE's affiliate India Index Services and Products Ltd (IISL) has granted exclusive licence for Americas and Europe to CME Group for trading of Nifty 50.

Besides, NSE also announced an agreement to explore listing and trading of more India-linked products on Singapore Exchange Ltd, which already has a licence to trade in Nifty 50.

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'Man Industries a very strong stock among small-caps'

hardul Kulkarni, Sr. Technical Analyst,

Angel Broking

Anyone of these stocks, Mukta Arts, Digjam that you are tracking on the charts?

Shardul Kulkarni : I would say that Digjam is one of the stocks that can move actually a little bit downwards rather than moving upwards because if you see the volumes have come on the big red candles that have been formed, so I would not be too positive on this stock unless and until it actually crosses the upside levels of 16-16.5. Mukta Arts I do not track.

Do you track Man Industries on the charts?

Shardul Kulkarni : Yes, Man Industries, one of the very strong counters in the small-cap space. I would say that the company has recently got an order and the stock is factoring in all the positives, so presently I would say that the stock is a buy on declines and not a buy at current levels of 76-77. If the stock does decline to around 66-67, then yes, the long term pattern is unfolding in a very positive manner. So presently, we would buy the stock on declines not at current levels but yes, overall the pattern is very strong. The weekly and monthly charts clearly show strong upside from current levels, so you would say it is a buy on declines.

Charts, what are they saying today for Astral Poly?

Shardul Kulkarni : Presently, if you look at the charts, you see the volumes are very low on this particular stock, probably the monthly volumes are less than 20 lakh shares in the full month. So on the volume front, the volumes are not too attractive to go in and buy this particular counter but purely on the price pattern, the stock is very strong. It clearly shows a strong trend line on the lower side where the support existed around 160-165 levels, so probably someone who wants to buy into this particular counter should look at buying on dips near to around 170 levels. The stop loss for this trade should be at around 160 levels

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Texmo Pipes & Products attracts 52% premium

Positional calls: Gujarat Gas, Polaris Software Aditya Birla Money

Technical calls: KPIT Cummins, Allahabad & ICICI Bank HDFC Sec

Src: ET, DP blog and etc

Heard on the Street

Heard on the Street

Shriram Transport planning NCD

issue

These are good times for small-ticket finance and leasing companies, thanks to difference between banks’ borrowing rates and high lending rates of these firms. These firms have taken advantage of the sufficient liquidity in the banking system by borrowing at low rates and lending it to its clients at a much higher rate, say analysts.

And even if cost of borrowing from banks come down, these players usually do not pass over the benefits to loan consumers. Most leasing companies keep the rate differential steady in the range of 7 and 15%.

Seeing good lending business prospects ahead, Shriram Transport is believed to be coming out with an NCD issue over the next few weeks. While it is not known how much the company intends to raise through this issuance, distributors expect the yield on the NCD issue would be in the range of 9- 10% per annum. Shares of Shriram Transport Finance Company ended 5% higher at Rs 499 on the BSE.

Local FIs, brokers stop bulk purchases

Domestic institutions and top brokerages that run proprietary books are likely to reduce their participation in the market to account their books for the fiscal ending March 31.

Market sources say, top brokers, who have sizeable proprietary books, have already stopped making bulk purchases in the market. Brokers say that most of the proprietory books and institutional funds are said to be in no mood to invest in the markets also that valuations are turning costlier by the day.

Proprietary books constitute approximately 30% of the total derivative volume, according to industry estimates.

Punters make a dash for Pricol for auto part play

Das board instruments major, Premier Instruments and Controls (Pricol) is said to be back on the radar of some savvy traders, on the auto component play. The share which has been trading between Rs 23-Rs 25 band in the recent past is said to be witnessing informed buying at lower levels.

Analysts maintain the company is a turnaround story and is gaining traction in a segment which has little competition. Word on the street is that the company is looking for fund infusion to retire some of its debt on books.

Whether the company would look to do this through the existing joint venture route or is in talks with new players could not be confirmed. Pricol shares fell 3% to close at Rs 23.90 on Tuesday.

(Contributed by Shailesh Menon, Apurv Gupta & Deeptha Rajkumar)

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Top 5 picks | Mid term picks |

More Satyams in a new Telengana?

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GE Shipping

India Income Tax Slabs and Savings

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Src: ET and DP blog

09 March 2010

Heard on the Street

Heard on the Street

Women’s Bill stand-off may hit Finance

Bill

The events unfolding around Women’s Bill have given rise to fears of a deep-market correction among institutional investors.

Even if Mulayam Singh-led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Lalu Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (JD) were to oppose the Bill, the government will be able to get it passed with BJP’s support. However, things would be difficult when the government comes up with the Finance Bill, which is up next in the Parliament proceedings’ list.

The government will find it very difficult to pass the Finance Bill without SP’s or RJD’s support. “A couple of defections from the UPA will force the government to seek a confidence vote from members. This will dampen the sentiment of the market. In such a situation, the market is likely to slip into a deep correction mode,” an institutional dealer said.

Block deal in Nifty April puts raises eyebrows

The huge build-up of positions in Nifty’s 4800 April puts last week, when the index was trading around the 5100-mark, has intrigued market participants. The position is stoking curiosity in the market, as almost 13-14 lakh units out of the existing 19.65 lakh units of open interest were built up in a single deal.

Market participants are anxious to know the intention behind the purchase of this contract. If the purchase is part of a volatility trade, the market participants would be relieved, but, if it is based on a directional view, then they have something to worry about.

According to market grapevine, the buyer of this contract is the US-based Golden Socks, and that the trade is part of a volatility strategy.

Fund managers spoilt for choice

It was a hectic day for fund managers with several blocks of shares to choose from. In addition to Daimler Chrysler’s offer for sale of Tata Motors shares, India Cement and battery maker Exide Industries were looking to raise funds through qualified institutional placements (QIPs).

India Cement is looking to raise around $48 million at a floor price of Rs 120.2, and an option to increase the issue size to $75 million. It is learnt that key investors in India Cement include Halbis, Bajaj Allianz and Templeton.

Exide Industries which is looking to raise around $110 million at Rs 108 has been subscribed almost three times. Key investors in Exide were Jupiter, which applied for three million shares, Kotak Mutual Fund (75 lakh shares) and Mirae and India Capital (20 lakh shares each). SBI Life and Reliance Life are learnt to have applied for shares worth Rs 80-100 crore, while Amansa is said to have applied for approximately shares worth Rs 50-60 crore.

(Contributed by Shailesh Menon, Nishanth Vasudevan & Apurv Gupta)

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Our plan superior to RIL bid: Lyondell

Govt looks to cut stake to let SBI hit D-Street

Infosys Technologies

Aries Agro

India Real Estate - Service Tax

JSW Steel

Daily News Roundup - March 9 2010

No Oscar performance here!

Escorts

Daily Newsletter - March 9 2010

Balkrishna Industries

India Strategy Report - March 8 2010

DQ Entertainment IPO Note

Src: ET and DP blog and Etc

08 March 2010

Intermediate uptrend confirmed

Intermediate uptrend confirmed

The post-Budget bullishness continued after Holi. It appears the intermediate trend is headed north. The Nifty climbed to a high of 5,118 points before closing at 5,088.7 for a week-on-week gain of 3.38 per cent. The Sensex was up 3.44 per cent at 16,994 points. The Defty gained 4.4 per cent as the rupee strengthened to below Rs 45.80 to the dollar.

Breadth was solidly positive. There was a pickup in cash trading volumes. FIIs bought strongly, registering net purchases of over Rs 3,800 cr. However, domestic institutions were heavy sellers to the tune of over Rs 2,400 crore. Smaller stocks outperformed. The BSE 500 was up 3.94 per cent while the Midcaps gained over 6 per cent and the Nifty Junior was ahead by 5.6 per cent.

Outlook: The Nifty has now established rising lows and rising peaks to confirm a turnaround in the intermediate trend. However, it’s hitting resistance above 5,100, at around 5,125. In the short-term, it could consolidate by range-trading for several sessions between 5,000-5,150. There is a 10-session target of somewhere between 5,200-5,300.

Rationale: Institutional inclinations indicate that there will be further tussles at the current price between bulls and bears. Chart patterns indicate that the intermediate trend is up – there have been successive higher tops and bottoms. There is a lot of resistance at 5,100 plus and it will probably take buying from both sets of institutions to overcome.

Counter-view: The intermediate trend reversed after February 9 so, it’s been running up for roughly 4 weeks. It could be flattening and heading into another phase of extended range-trading, or even a downtrend. Sluggish momentum indicators and a flattening 200 Day Moving Average suggest that this is happening. A break out past 5,125, preferably past 5,150, would confirm a strong intermediate trend. Long traders could wait for that signal.

Bulls & Bears: Last week’s trading saw bulls cycling through several sectors, booking profits and moving on. IT underperformed and banks more or less matched the Nifty.

Automobiles, auto ancillaries, cement, power-equipment and sugar, went up in various sessions. In the banking sector, PSUs attracted more attention through most of the week but private banks did well on Friday. IT was buoyed by stronger performance from smaller stocks. Metals had a mixed performance with signs of weakness by the weekend.

Auto stocks such as Tata Motors and Hero Honda delivered outstanding returns. But by the weekend, there was a lot of profit booking and Maruti in particular, seemed weak.

Sugar saw the opposite seesaws as did real estate. Both sugar and real estate started weak and finished strong with several stocks in each sector showing promising chart patterns by the weekend. There were other winners scattered across various sectors. The more prominently bullish scrips included Suzlon, Petronet, Ambuja Cement, Essar Oil, Gujarat NRE and Gail.

MICRO TECHNICALS

Bank of Baroda
Current Price: Rs 594.75
Target Price: Rs 630

The stock has seen a jump followed by profit-booking, and another bounce from decent support. It should test resistance at Rs 630-Rs 635 again. Keep a stop at Rs 590 and go long. Increase the position between Rs 600-Rs 605 and reset the stop to Rs 600. Clear the position beyond Rs 630.

Petronet
Current Price: Rs 79.9
Target Price: Rs 85

The stock’s up on high volumes, clearing resistance just below current price. The projected target would be at least Rs 85, which would be a new high. There’s resistance at Rs 82- Rs 83. Keep a stop at Rs 77 and go long. Increase the position beyond Rs 83. At Rs 85, book 50 per cent profit and reset the stop to Rs 83 since there’s a good chance of reaching Rs 90.

Purvankara Projects
Current Price: Rs 109.9
Target Price: Rs 115

The stock has seen a sharp jump on higher volumes. It has the potential to test resistance at the minimum target of Rs 115. Keep a stop at Rs 105 and go long. Book at least 50 per cent profit at Rs 115 and reset the stop to Rs 112. Clear the position at Rs 120.

Shree Renuka Sugars
Current Price: Rs 181.3
Target Price: Rs 190

Massive volumes ahead of the bonus have boosted prices. There’s resistance at the minimum target of 186, where the 200-Day Moving Average is hovering. Expect a move till Rs 190 or further, beyond Rs 200. Keep a stop at Rs 177 and go long. Add to the position above Rs 186. Book 75 per cent profit at Rs 190 and reset the stop to Rs 186.

Tata Motors
Current Price: Rs 794.25
Target Price: Rs 770

The stock has strong volume action and shot up from Rs 720 to Rs 830 in just two sessions. It has since seen profit-booking. There’s good support at Rs 790 but Fibonacci calculations suggest a drop till secondary support at Rs 770. Keep a stop at Rs 800 and short. Increase the position below Rs 790. Clear the position between Rs 770- Rs 775.

(The target price and projected movements given above are in terms of the next five trading sessions unless otherwise stated.)

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Recovery optimism boosts Asian indices	08-MAR-10
Asian stocks rose for a second week, almost erasing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s losses this year, as reports on global semiconductor sales, Indian manufacturing and US jobless claims boosted optimism for an economic revival.

Analysts' corner	08-MAR-10
For the December 2009 quarter, Esab posted a 60 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit at Rs 14.7 crore as against Sharekhan’s estimate of Rs 11.4 crore.

High cash levels in Budget week	08-MAR-10
As the markets cheered the Budget, Smart Portfolios too raked in profits during the week.

Markets at a glance	08-MAR-10
The BSE Sensex surged 565 points or 3.4 per cent to 16,995 during the week, while Nifty rose 166.40 points or 3.4 per cent to 5,089.

Range trading with an upwards bias	08-MAR-10
High cash market volumes were not matched by similar volumes in the derivatives market.

Intermediate uptrend confirmed	08-MAR-10
The post-Budget bullishness continued after Holi.

Back on track	08-MAR-10
Volume and profitability growth in the December quarter is a sign of better times to come for the retail sector.

Costly bite	08-MAR-10
Higher input costs could keep Nestle’s profit margins under pressure in the short-term, but leadership across segments would act as a cushion.

Well crafted	08-MAR-10
Given the past track record, sound business model, robust order book and reasonable pricing, DQ Entertainment’s IPO is a worthy bet.

One-offs impact profits	08-MAR-10
An improving order backlog and economic climate should help ABB do better this year.

Success hinges on pricing	08-MAR-10
While NMDC's track record, vast resources and growth prospects are enviable, the government will need to ensure that the FPO is attractively priced.

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. Top 5 picks I Mid-term picks I

Crude glides up

Bulls run may continue

Daily News Roundup - March 8 2010

Trespassing 5100!

Monthly Technicals - March 8 2010

Jain Irrigation

Adhunik Metaliks

Mphasis

Tata Motors Ltd

Hawkins Cookers

VGuard Industries

India Utilities

Infinite Computer Solutions

and DP blog
Src: ET and BS

03 March 2010

Pivot Table

Interactive Ajaxorized Pivot Table

Src: Marketcalls.in

02 March 2010

RIL may lose Lyondell bid, eye Canada company

RIL may lose Lyondell bid, eye Canada company

MUMBAI: Reliance Industries (RIL) is on the verge of losing its bid for bankrupt petrochemical company LyondellBasell, as it baulks at rising

Gang of Five behind RIL’s LyondellBasell bid
Full Coverage: RIL's LyondellBasell bid
RIL

valuation due to the recovering global economy, but that may help it focus on the possible acquisition of Canada’s Value Creation.

The bid by the nation’s largest private sector company, which was raised 21% to about $14.5 billion from the initial $12 billion in November, may not be acceptable to creditors who are leaning towards the revival plan proposed by the current management, two people familiar with the matter said.

“It is proving to be expensive,” said a person close to the deal preferring anonymity. “Lyondell’s reorganisation plan to be filed with the US bankruptcy court in Manhattan on Monday will influence the final decision,” the person added. The plan may be filed midnight India time. An RIL spokesperson declined comment.

Lyondell’s creditors, led by buyout firm Apollo Management, is set to reject the plan by RIL in Monday’s proposal, the New York Post reported on its website. The plan to be filed is set to favour the merger of Lyondell with Hexion Specialty Chemicals controlled by Apollo, the report said.

RIL has raised about $2 billion selling its own shares from the vault between November and now to possibly bid for Lyondell. It still has shares worth about $7 billion for which it has not publicly spelt out a strategy. RIL has time to raise its bid. But given its past record of seeking value in all its purchases, it may not raise the bid. The company had said in November that it was interested in buying a controlling stake in Lyondell, but it never officially disclosed how much it was valuing the target at.

Also Read

→ Running empty, oil ministry may opt for partial freeing of prices

→ We want to boost energy ties with Saudi Arabia: PM

→ Venezuelan oil co may buy stake in ONGC-MRPL

→ Every time you tank up at gas station, govt gets richer

The treasury stocks were created eight years ago, following the merger of Reliance Petroleum, a subsidiary, with RIL. While holdings of promoter companies get cancelled in these circumstances normally, RIL chose to retain them in a trust which are being sold now.

“Reliance is a value buyer,” the New York Post report quoted Telly Zachariades, partner of the Valence Group investment bank, as saying. “He’s (Mukesh Ambani) is not the kind of person to get caught up in deal frenzy.”

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Stocks to open higher in line with strong Asia

Top five picks | Mid-term Picks | Top gainers, losers, recommendations

Budget winners: Oil & gas, banking and consumers

Great Offshore seems an attractive buy for long term

Daily News Roundup - March 2 2010

Decent start after a Holi-day!

ITC Ltd

Amtek Auto

Tata Motors

Budget Special - March 2 2010

Union Budget Review - March 2 2010

Blue Star

Src: ET, DP blog

01 March 2010

Check out the post-Budget winning potential of 42 mid-cap stocks

Check out the post-Budget winning potential of 42 mid-cap stocks

ET Bureau

Mid-caps are a minefield where investors have burnt their fingers, but they’re also a club where one can spot tomorrow’s winners. Suddenly automobile, mid-sized banks, and construction & engineering companies have become the new flavours. ETIG brings you a list of 42 such mid-caps.

ET has picked stocks with a market capitalisation between Rs 2,000 crore and Rs 10,000 crore, based on the average market cap for January 10. The final 42 have been selected keeping in mind the sectoral representation, and parameters like daily exchange turnover, price earning ratio, dividend yield and beta (which reflects a stock’s volatility).

Following are the details of the 42 mid-cap stocks:

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Mkts: Sharp movements to be sector-specific

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Market intriguingly poised post-Budget

The Budget was well-received but the initial enthusiasm was dampened by selling in the latter part of the session. The Nifty hit a high of 4,992 points before falling back to close at 4,922 for a week- on-week gain of 1.6 per cent. The Sensex was up 1.47 per cent at 16,429 points. The Defty gained 2.1 per cent as the rupee continued to harden.

Breadth was fairly good though smaller stocks underperformed the pivotals. The BSE 500 was up 0.9 per cent and the Midcaps actually lost around 0.8 per cent. Volumes were strong on Thursday and Friday - not surprising given that settlement was followed immediately by the Budget. Domestic institutions were net sellers for the second week in succession while FIIs bought in moderate quantities.

Outlook: Market direction is still not very clear. The resistance at 5,000 was not conquered. However, the intermediate trend seems to have changed for the better. There have been successive higher peaks and support along a positive-looking trendline. The short-term trend could well be negative early next week if the sentiment of the last hour on Friday doesn't alter over the extended weekend.

Rationale: The market could open with a large gap in either direction on Tuesday since the fine print of the Budget will have been absorbed by then. The Nifty's trendline has looked positive since the last low of 4,675 on February 8. Higher peaks have been established at 4,951 (February 2) and 4,882 (February 26) - the second high came due to the Budget. On the upside, a break and close above 5,000 would be positive. On the downside, support above 4,800 should hold.

Counter-view: There are distinct chances of a negative swing early next week, given weak short-term signals on Friday, an apparently negative reaction to the Budget from domestic institutions and weakness overseas. The latter factor is imponderable but traders will get a clearer picture from overseas markets on Holi. If things get worse, the Nifty could take a bath on Tuesday. In that case, the benchmark support for the intermediate trend would be 4,675.

Bulls & bears: IT was the only industry to see major sell-offs on Friday though the CNXIT was up 0.9 per cent on the week. ITC also lost serious ground. Real estate stocks got a mixed reaction with several majors such as Unitech and DLF gaining while Indiabulls Real Estate lost a lot of ground. Energy stocks also saw mixed responses with OMCs and refiners losing ground while ONGC and Cairns gained.

Most other industries saw positive gains across the board though these were pared late in the day. Listed auto majors all registered major gains. Finance was another industry with big gains, especially across NBFCs and PSU banks. The Bank Nifty was up 2.8 per cent. Engineering and construction stocks like Larsen and GMR Infra saw strong buying. Metals and cement also saw bullishness as did pharma.

MICRO TECHNICALS

LARSEN & TOUBRO
Current Price: Rs 1,564.3
Target Price: Rs 1,650

The priceline has just completed a bullish saucer formation with a projected target in the range of Rs 1,650- Rs 1,670. There is also resistance in that zone. Keep a stop at Rs 1,550 and go long. Add to the position beyond Rs 1,580 and clear it at Rs 1,650.

HERO HONDA
Current Price: Rs 1,777
Target Price: Rs 1,900

The stock hit a new high on strong volumes. The projected target is Rs 1880- Rs 1900 but error margins are large due to the stock being in a new zone. Keep a trailing stop at Rs 1,750 and go long. Increase the position above Rs 1,800. Reset the stop upwards by Rs 25 for every 25-point move.

IDFC
Current Price: Rs 159.6
Target Price: Rs 167

The stock jumped on massive volume. It has sufficient momentum to test resistance at Rs 167 and it may go further. Keep a stop at Rs 156 and go long. Add to the position above Rs 161. Book 50 per cent profit at Rs 167 and reset the stop to Rs 165.

SESA GOA
Current Price: Rs 400.35
Target Price: Rs 415

The stock has shot up on high volumes. It's likely to move until the Rs 415- Rs 420 level before running into heavy resistance. Keep a stop at Rs 395 and go long. Start booking profits above Rs 415. But note that if Sesa Goa closes above Rs 420, it could run until Rs 440.

MOSER BAER
Current Price: Rs 75.85
Target Price: Rs 81

The stock jumped from its 2010 low on very high volume. Too early to say if this is a long-term trend reversal or a technical recovery. However, there's enough momentum to go to Rs 81- Rs 82. Keep a stop at Rs 73 and go long. Book profits above Rs 81.

High cash levels in Budget week	01-MAR-10
Uncertainty ahead of multiple events - Railway Budget, Economic Survey, derivatives expiry and the Union Budget saw fund managers get defensive and raise cash levels.

Analysts' corner	01-MAR-10
Tata Motors (TML) is expected to report a consolidated profit of Rs 130 crore for Q3FY10, its first since the JLR acquisition.

Sweet deal	01-MAR-10
The move to acquire Equipav will benefit Shree Renuka Sugars in the long run through backward integration and economies of scale.

Market intriguingly poised post-Budget	01-MAR-10
The Budget was well-received but the initial enthusiasm was dampened by selling in the latter part of the session.

Focus on the index	01-MAR-10
One cited cause for the downtrend was weak US economic data.

Tackling event risk	01-MAR-10
Performance cycles can harness event risk such as the Budget and offer an alternative strategy.

Please-all	01-MAR-10
Even as the Union Budget 2010-11 was largely in line with expectations, the markets rejoiced with the Sensex and Nifty closing higher by about a per cent each on Friday.