Sensex falls below 16,000 to 3-month low

Sensex falls below 16,000 to 3-month low

MUMBAI: India's main stock index Sensex fell below 16,000 points for the first time in more than three months on rising foreign fund outflow as Europe's debt woes hit risk appetite.

At 2:41 p.m., the 30-share BSE index was down 2.9 percent at 15,994.12 points, with all of its components falling.

At 2:38 pm, National Stock Exchange's Nifty was at 4797.05, down 146.90 points or 2.97 per cent. The index touched a low of 4795.15 and high of 4946.60 in trade so far.

It had last been below 16,000 on Feb. 11. The 50-share NSE index was down 3 percent at 4,796.50.

BSE Midcap Index was down 2.96 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 3.12 per cent lower.

Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Metal Index fell 4.84 per cent, BSE Capital Goods Index declined 2.98 per cent and BSE Auto Index fell 2.95 per cent.

Reliance Communications (-6.32%), SAIL (-6.22%), Hindalco (-6.15%), Ambuja Cements (-5.49%) and IDFC (-5.22%) were amongst the top Nifty losers.

Sun Pharma (2.09%) was the only gainer.

Market breadth was negative on the NSE with 2430 losers against 508 gainers.

European markets continued to witness pain over debt-crisis issue plaguing Europe. DAX fell 2.45 per cent, CAC 40 was down 2.88 per cent and FTSE 100 declined 2.27 per cent.

Sensex, Nifty break key levels; all sectors butchered

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Check out how new issues are faring in the market

Src: ET and Moneycontrol.com

Back to the Bearish Ways

The markets are likely to open with a downward bias on continued international weakness. The US markets tumbled Monday with the Dow giving up all but 5 points of gains registered Friday during a fury of short covering on the options expiry.

After trading in a narrow range for much of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 127 points, the S&P 500 lost 14 points to 1074 and the NASDAQ shed 15 points at 2214.

The late swoon indicated those investors’ fears about Europe's credit crisis and tighter rules on Wall Street are still running strong. Financials led the decline on a day when the street refused to take cognizance of the 7.6% rise in existing home sales.

The euro was under pressure during the session as the market weighed news that the Bank of Spain bailed out a regional savings bank. The 1.1% rise in Dollar Index, however, did not prevent the Crude and Gold futures to move higher 17 cents and $ 17.90 higher respectively.

The bullish fervour seen in the morning trades in our markets could not hold for the day as bears came back in the afternoon to snatch the initiative away from the nascent bulls. The Nifty managed to cling on to just 13 points of gains, from the 98 points seen at one point.

Barring Reliance Infra, which saw some additional position build up, the rest of the clan saw positions being pruned as investors took advantage of the god sent rally to prune positions.

Our stated view was also the same.

Expect the Nifty to take support around the 4850 level. If the 4832 level breaks, it will not augur well and we could see a cascade of selling by risk managers in that eventuality.

Autos, banks, metals, realty still look weak. As the settlement draws near, the options are becoming cheap and times match the stop loss of a trader. Switching to options during the last two days of the settlement is protective and also gives you more bangs for the buck. Ask your RM to understand how you can hedge your portfolio or use options to trade.

Technical Picks – Stocks

Recommended Action for Alstom Projects is Buy and for Pantaloon Retail Futures is Short on rises

Weekly Market, Sectoral and Stock Perspective – Technicals

Markets resumed their intermediate downtrend as they slided lower this week.


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Ambani Bros: From Recrimination To Reconciliation

Market cheers 'harmony' among Ambani brothers

Ambani peace a positive for groups, shareholders: Analysts

Sensex may scale 18K-mount by year-end: Citigroup

PM sees 5-6% inflation by Dec, 8.5% growth this fiscal

Illiquid stocks spring back to life




Src: Economictimes.indiatimes, HDFCSEc, DP blog and etc

Ambani brothers end war but agree to compete

Replace all non-compete agreements with a ‘simpler pact' on gas-based power generation.

Our Bureau

Mumbai, May 23

In a move that will change the competitive landscape between the Ambani scions Mukesh and Anil, the brothers have cancelled all existing non-compete agreements between their groups, drawn-up during the Reliance re-organisation in 2006.

A new and “simpler” non-compete agreement has instead been formalised relating only to gas-based power generation, said identical statements issued separately by the two groups on Sunday.

The agreement cancelling earlier non-compete agreements (except in the matter of gas-based power production) was signed between the Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and Anil Ambani led-Reliance ADA Group companies on Sunday.

The new agreement opens up sectors that were hitherto out of bounds for either groups, such as telecommunications and the financial sector for the older brother Mukesh.

Gas-based power generation continues to be off-limits for RIL up to March 31, 2022. An appropriate exception has been made in respect of RIL's captive gas-based power plants, the note explained.

For younger brother Anil, the doors are now open to sectors such as oil and gas and petrochemicals.

COURT FALLOUT?

The latest development comes two weeks after the Supreme Court had ruled on the gas-pricing dispute between the two brothers. The apex court had directed the Mukesh-owned RIL and the Anil-owned RNRL to renegotiate a gas supply agreement within six weeks of the court judgement and to report the agreement to the court within eight weeks.

However, there is no clarity on whether the latest agreement between the Ambani brothers is an off-shoot of the apex court-directed negotiations and merely a precursor to a new gas sharing agreement which the Supreme Court has mandated.

The latest statement did say that RIL and Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) will expeditiously negotiate gas supply arrangements in accordance with the orders of the Supreme Court. “We hope to conclude these negotiations very soon,” the note added.

Further, the new non-compete agreement will eliminate the possibility for further disputes between the two groups, “on matters relating to the scope and interpretation of the non-compete obligations,” the note added.

The agreement has removed road blocks for each of the two groups to expand in new areas, an industry-watcher agreed, adding however, that it may be too early to say if RIL would be interested in any of the areas where ADAG is already present.

In the past, the two brothers have fought over Mr Anil Ambani's efforts to acquire South African telecom company MTN and more recently, over the gas supply arrangement between Mr Mukesh Ambani's RIL and Mr Anil Ambani's Reliance Natural Resources Ltd.

A few years ago, there was another public spat when Mr Anil Ambani protested against a 2,000-MW captive plant that was proposed for the RIL-promoted Haryana Special Economic Zone. He had then cited violation of the non-compete agreement between them, while the RIL camp held that the plant was only incidental to the SEZ business. RIL has a captive power plant at its new refinery in Jamnagar too.

POWER: Truce or war?

After Dhirubhai Ambani's death in 2002, his empire was re-organised between the warring Ambani scions under the stewardship of their mother Ms Kokilaben, in June 2005.

But industry watchers differ in their interpretation of the latest development, calling it variously as “a road to a truce”, and an “out-and-out war”, or a “total severing of relations”.

Some felt that there would be greater consolidation activity between the groups. “There are certain indications that point to M&A activities between the two groups, especially with Mr Mukesh Ambani showing keen interest in the telecom sector,” said Mr Kishor P. Ostwal, head of CNI Research.

Others, however, felt this was unlikely. “We think it is out-and-out no-holds barred war. It's a you-do-what-you-like, I'll-do-what-I-like situation. Only in the case of gas they are forced to have an agreement,” said another analyst.

“The settlement is positive for both the groups But what will be more interesting is when they announce the monetary component of the deal. The ADAG group especially is dry of money,” said Mr Harjit Singh Sethi, Country Head, Institutional Equity Broking at Almondz Global Securities.

There was much speculation on whether Mr Anil Ambani has conceded more, as it is easier for Mr Mukesh Ambani to enter telecom, finance (in particular) and non-gas based power, than it is for the former to enter a capital intensive industry such as refining or exploration.

The press statements from the two brothers, though, had reconciliatory overtones.

“RIL and Reliance ADA Group are hopeful and confident that all these steps will create an overall environment of harmony, co-operation and collaboration between the two groups, thereby further enhancing overall shareholder value for shareholders of both groups,” the note said.

The boards of directors of both RIL and Reliance ADA Group companies have given their green signal to the latest agreement.

Ambanis end non-compete pact in reconciliation bid

India's billionaire Ambani brothers took a step towards reconciliation of their long-running feud on Sunday, ending non-compete agreements in a step they hoped would lead to cooperation between the two groups.

Both groups said they hoped to reach a conclusion soon in a gas supply agreement between Reliance Industries (RIL) and Anil's Reliance Natural Resources that had been at the heart of their dispute.

"RIL and Reliance ADA Group are hopeful and confident that all these steps will create an overall environment of harmony, co-operation and collaboration between the two groups, thereby further enhancing overall shareholder value for shareholders of both groups," both companies said in statements.

The announcement comes weeks after the Supreme Court ruled in Mukesh Ambani's favour in a bitter dispute over gas pricing that had made headlines, riven India's richest family and raised questions about the influence of big business on government policy.

On Sunday, Reliance Industries and Anil's Reliance ADA Group said they had agreed to cancel all existing non-compete pacts which the groups had signed in 2006 and entered into a new and simpler non-compete pact only for gas-based power generation.

"If you weigh the positives and negatives, this is more positive for Reliance Industries than R-ADAG group, because this gives Reliance an opportunity to look into expansion in other areas, which they were not allowed to do earlier," said S.P. Tulsian, an independent investment consultant.

"You can't rule out the possibility of Reliance entering in sectors such as telecom," adding the Reliance shares are expected to open up on Monday, in the wake of this development.

The two brothers, who both live in Mumbai but had not been on speaking terms during their dispute, inherited their business empires from their father Dhirubhai Ambani in 2005.

Mukesh got the jewel - Reliance Industries, which has interests in oil and gas exploration, petrochemicals, infrastructure and textiles. Anil got the telecoms, power and financial services businesses.

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. Video: Ambanis bury hatchet | Full Coverage | Blog: Beginning of a new era

Altered scenario may prompt RIL to venture into financial services

Markets may peg up RIL, Reliance Power and RNRL the most
Mukesh faction better placed to bankroll new forays. The initial stock market reaction to the Ambani brothers' new pact is likely to ...
Will Mukesh re-enter telecom sector?
RIL's captive network is ready for commercial use. After giving away his dream project under Reliance Infocomm to Anil Ambani in 2005, elder brother Mukesh Ambani now has a chance to get back into the booming telecom sector following the ...



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Bull's Eye: Persistent Systems, Crompton Greaves, SAIL, L&T, RCOM

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Src: All Leading Business Websites.

Wall St sinks on Eurozone concerns; Dow down 376 pts

In the US markets stocks logged their biggest drop of the year ahead of the German vote on the EU bailout and options expiration. Plus, a vote in the senate to end the debate on financial reform cleared the path for a final vote today, which added another layer of selling pressure.

The market started off jittery amid worries about Germany acting alone in imposing the ban on some naked short selling and a disappointing jobless-claims report.

The Dow shed more than 370 points, finishing at its session lows after the selloff accelerated in the final minutes of trading. The S&P 500 lost nearly 4%, while the Nasdaq was the hardest hit as most of the tech giants took a beating, with Apple, Google and Intel all down around 4%.

All three major indices are now in correction territory, down over 10% from their April highs. At this rate, the market is on track for its worst month in over a year. Volume was nearly double the daily average, with more than 2 billion shares changing hands on the New York stock exchange. Declines outpaced the advances in a 30 to 1 ratio.

The CBOE volatility index jumped over 25% and was above 45 at the closing bell, its highest level in over a year. All 30 Dow components finished lower, led by Bank of America, Alcoa and GE.

At closing bell, the Dow closed more than 3% down at 10,068, the S&P 500 shut shop at 1,071 and the Nasdaq lost more than 4% to end at 2,204.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits shot up by 25,000 to 471,000 last week, which rattled an already jittery market as economists had expected claims to drop to 440,000.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia fed reported its gauge of regional manufacturing activity dropped to 21.4 in April, slightly more than expected, from 20.2 in March. And leading indicators fell 0.1% in April, the first decline in a year.

The euro has risen against the dollar on speculation that the european monetary officials may intervene to prop up the single currency and on short-covering.

In the commodity space, global economy fears pushed the CRB to the lowest since September last year. Crude continues to trade lower just below the USD 70 mark. The NYMEX June contract which expired yesterday fell to USD 64 as positions rolled & squared.

Copper prices dropped to the lowest level in 14 weeks on mounting signs the global economic recovery is fading. Other metals like aluminium and zinc also traded lower.



Risk-averse investors turn to stronger dollar

Volatility in markets may increase further

US stocks dive, Dow off 376 on world economic worries

ONGC, SAIL, NTPC & IOC declared maharatnas

3G - India

India 3G Auctions

TRADING DESK


Src: Economictimes, Moneycontrol, Smartinvestor, DP blog and etc

CLSA View on India

India has most attractive outlook in Asia this year: CLSA


SHANGHAI: Australian equities will be the biggest losers in the Asia-Pacific region this year as a slowing Chinese economy cuts demand for commodities, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets.

“We are massively underweight Australia,” Christopher Wood, the second-ranked Asia strategist in Institutional Investor magazine’s annual poll, said in an interview yesterday in Shanghai.

“Australia is perceived as an economy that is geared to China on the commodity side.” Australia’s benchmark S&P /ASX 200 Index fell 1.5% on Wednesday after rallying 20% in the past 12 months as Chinese expansion fueled demand for the nation’s exports, including copper and iron ore.

BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, has risen 13% in that time and Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest, gained 32%. Both are based in Melbourne.

The S&P/ASX 200 has fallen 11% since reaching an 18-month high on April 15. Losses accelerated after the government said it will impose a 40% levy on the profits of raw-materials producers including BHP and Rio Tinto as part of the broadest overhaul of its tax system since World War II. The stock index had risen 11% between February 9 and April 15 after posting a 7.5% retreat to start the year.

China, Australia’s biggest export market and purchaser of iron ore, began unwinding stimulus measures this year to avert asset bubbles. China International Capital cut its estimate for China’s economic growth this year on May 10 to 9.5% from 10.5%, citing property tightening measures and overseas “uncertainties.”

The Chinese government raised mortgage rates and down payments in April to curb property price gains, while the central bank this month ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for a third time in 2010.

“The impact of tightening is starting to affect other markets such as commodities,” said Hong Kong-based Wood, who is CLSA’s chief equity strategist. Copper and aluminum for three-month delivery have slumped about 10% in London this month, while zinc has lost 16% and nickel dropped about 18%.

The S&P /ASX 200’s valuation has increased to 14.4 times estimated 2010 profit at its companies, trailing only Japan as the highest among Asia-Pacific developed nations with more than $1 trillion in stock-market value, Bloomberg data show.

Indian equities have the most attractive outlook in Asia this year, Wood said. Annual growth may accelerate to 9% over the next five years, allowing the nation to overtake China as the world’s fastest growing major economy, if the government maintains its pledge to rebuild infrastructure, he said.


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3G spectrum: Govt hits jackpot; gets Rs 67,719 cr


Idea made smartest call I 3G auction winners' profile

Banks fear liquidity crisis from 3G fees, tax outgo

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Heard on the Street: Investors stock up on Sundaram Multipap

A falling market shows no mercy to new entrants

Small-sized initial public offerings are no longer immune to steep falls in the broader markets, as investors in the Tarapur Transformers issue would have found, much to their ‘discomfort’. The stock closed at Rs 50.60 on Wednesday, down 11% over its previous close. It has now fallen 33% below its issue price of Rs 75, raising questions about the quality of investors — especially the qualified institutional buyers — which had subscribed to the issue.

The stock, which listed on Tuesday and hit a high of Rs 97.50 on that day, has been sliding ever since. Brokers say the price movement in the past couple of sessions indicates a classic “pump and dump” operation. Because of low floating stock, operators are able to corner a good chunk of the floating stock, ramp up the share price, and then dump it on unsuspecting investors who are drawn like moths to a flame. In the past few months, many of the smaller issues have given much better returns than reputed names.

DLF slips for the third day, hits 10-month low

Shares of real estate major DLF fell for the third time in four days to end the day at Rs 279.20, its lowest closing level in over 10 months. Dealers tracking the counter say a leading foreign portfolio investor in the stock has been a steady seller over the past few sessions.

The company’s fourth quarter numbers announced last week have evoked a mixed reaction from analysts, but almost all of them have raised a red flag about the rising debt level. While cutting their price targets for the stock, some analysts still maintain that DLF is one of the better bets in the realty sector. Dealers said some fund managers were making some bargain purchases at the counter, but the big sell order had them scurrying for cover. Given the overall gloomy mood in the market, every rupee and dollar counts.

Investors stock up on Sundaram Multipap

Equity analysts are expecting shares of Sundaram Multipap to gain over the next few weeks on hopes that the company will report good numbers over the next two quarters. With schools and colleges reopening for the new academic year over the next two months, Sundaram Multipap, which makes education exercise books, among other stationery items, is expected to log a rise in sales turnover.

Sundaram Edusys, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sundaram Multi Pap, recently launched a learning product ‘e-Class’, which will be used by students class 8, 9th and 10th under Maharashtra Board. Sundaram Multipap shares ended 1.2% lower at Rs 49 on the BSE.

(Contributed by Santosh Nair & Shailesh Menon)


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3G auction closes; pan-India licence bid touches Rs 168.28 bn

Nifty breaks 200 DMA: Is it time to buy?




Src: All Leading Websources, Economictimes and etc

Sensex tanks by over 400 points

Sensex tanks by over 400 points


UMBAI: Benchmarks were under intense selling pressure on Wednesday breached 200 Daily Moving Average as sentiments in global markets turned bearish after Germany banned short-selling in some government bonds and stocks.

At 2:28 pm, Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex was at 16454.75, down 421.01 points or 2.49 per cent. The index hit intraday low of 16414.65 and high of 16802.39.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was at 4940.60, down 125.60 points or 2.48 per cent. The index touched intraday low of 4919.45 and high of 5065.10.

The index has breached its 200 DMA of 4988. This is the second time in the week that the index has tested its crucial support levels. According to analysts, the concern will begin if the index closes below 200 DMA for at least two consecutive sessions which may trigger more short positions.

BSE Midcap Index was down 2.07 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index slipped 1.97 per cent lower.

All the sectoral indices were in the red. BSE Metal Index fell 3.70 per cent, BSE Realty Index tumbled 3.69 per cent and BSE Bankex slipped 3.52 per cent.

Sterlite Industries (-6.76%), Tata Motors (-5.80%), ICICI Bank (-5.62%), Jaiprakash Associates (-5.29%) and M&M (-5.28%) were amongst the major Sensex losers.

Hero Honda (0.86%), was the lone index gainer.

Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 1110 losers against 189 gainers.

Meanwhile, the European shares were in deep red by losses in the financials. FTSE 100 was down 2.62 per cent, CAC 40 fell 3.01 per cent and DAX fell 2.81 per cent.


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Bluechips below 200DMA: To buy or not to buy

MUMBAI: Stocks have been under pressure for some time now due to fundamental reasons pertaining to their respective sectors as well as due to economic uncertainties in the global markets. On Monday, traders heaved a sigh of relief as the Nifty bounced back after briefly slipping below its 200-Daily Moving Average of 4980. Index heavyweights like Reliance Industries and ONGC, which pulled the Nifty down, too have slipped below their 200-DMA. The 200-DMA is a historical tool and indices or prices don’t breach this level on the downside very often. If the price stays above 200-DMA, it’s a bullish sign, whereas a move below it signals a bearish sentiment. “Given global concerns, most of the stocks have underperformed for good reason and should be left out. Weakness in index heavyweight Reliance Industries appears as a precursor to some correction in coming days. If the market stays below 5000 levels then we might see 4600 on the Nifty,” said Sandeep J Shah, CEO, Sampriti Capital. List of the biggies that are significantly below their 200 DMA Sr. no Stock CMP (Rs) 200 DMA(Rs) - % 1 Reliance Communications 145 203.04 28.6 2 DLF 289.3 362.22 20.1 3 Suzlon Energy 63.95 81.11 21.2 4 Bharti Airtel 267.95 334.07 19.8 5 Jaiprakash Associates 127.7 149.18 14.4 6 Maruti 1242.45 1447.4 14.2 7 Unitech 76.25 85.79 11.1 8 Sterlite Industries 688.25 784.89 12.3 9 ONGC 1051.35 1136.69 7.51 10 Reliance Industries 1020.6 1043.49 2.19 11 NTPC 205.15 210.7 2.63 Note: Closing figures as on 19-05-2010 The stocks may have fallen temporarily and look bearish on the charts. However, they can be picked up at current levels for the long-term period of over a year. “Investors can enter these stocks at current levels for a holding period of minimum one year. Investors can put 25% of the funds at these levels and wait to accumulate at lower levels,” said Ajay Parmar, head of research at Emkay Global Financial Services.

More @ Bluechips below 200DMA: To buy or not to buy

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Other stories

Greece bailout will not impact euro: Mark Mobius, Franklin Templeton


Rupee hits 12-week low on shares, euro slump

Blood on D-Street, Nifty ends below 200 DMA

Src: Economictimes.indiatimes, Moneycontrol.com

Indian shares may fall as much as 10%

Indian shares may fall as much as 10%

MUMBAI: The dream run of emerging market stocks may be coming to an end, with risk-averse global investors pulling out funds as the world stares at the spectre of sinking back to economic contraction with troubles brewing in Europe and China.

International investors have pulled out $890 million from India this month, the highest since January 2009 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, in what could just be the beginning if global economic problems persist.

Shaky markets and the possibility of policy actions such as interest rate hikes to stave off inflationary threats may be a drag on emerging stocks for some months to come. Indian shares may fall as much as 10%, say investors.

“Emerging markets have had a great run, but now investors are taking a breather,” said Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, managing director and head-India research at BoA Merrill Lynch. “Our fund manager survey indicates that they have become more cautious about investing in emerging markets.”

Also Read

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→ US treasuries safer bet in uncertain times

→ Indian equities 2nd best in returns after Indonesia: ADB

→ Global recovery takes a hit as euro, China weigh on Street

The MSCI Emerging Markets index is down about 9% from last month’s highs and China is down more than 20%. Indian stocks are down 6.5% from their peak, after climbing 81% in 2009.

International markets have been see-sawing as some believe the $1-trillion European Union aid package to save economically troubled nations such as Greece and Spain may not be enough to prevent another credit crisis. Rising fears about China’s growth faltering due to government attempts to cool down the economy have exacerbated investor concerns.

“The European crisis will impact India flows negatively in the near term as risk taking gets cut back,’’ said Pankaj Vaish, managing director and head-equities at Nomura.

Emerging market equity funds had a second straight week of redemptions, according to EPFR data for week ended May 12.

China equity funds posted their second straight week of outflows. Emerging Europe, Middle-East and Africa funds also lost $350 million. As investors flee to safe-haven assets such as the US treasury and gold, Indian stocks could fall further, investors say.

“There could be continued short-term selling in emerging markets and Indian equities. Markets could fall another 5-10% from these levels,” said Sam Mahtani, director, emerging market equities, at F&C Asset Management. “There will be no upmove till such time fears recede over global issues.’’

US assets such as the treasury, shares and gold are preferred as they are seen as safe, at least for now. Shares in the US are up 2% this year. The US dollar has once again emerged as a safe-haven asset even for central banks. Central banks across the globe raised their holdings to $2.7 trillion in March, from $2.67 trillion in February. Gold prices are near record highs.

Emerging market growth, which has been higher than the developed world in the last decade, is also under threat given that most central banks are poised to raise interest rates to temper inflation. China’s inflation rate may touch 3% soon, prompting a rate increase, and in India it is already above the central bank’s target.

“Systemic risk has reduced for the moment but investors know it has not vanished,” said Munish Varma, head-global markets India at Deutsche Bank. "That has prompted investors to liquidate some of their risky holdings and move into safer assets as seen from the demand for US treasuries last week and record high price of gold.”



Top 5 picks I Mid-term picks I Stocks that present good buying opportunity





Src: ET

Sensex below 15,300 would enter bear market

Sensex below 15,300 would enter bear market


he market started the week with a very strong rally on Monday, but lost steam to end with a greatly reduced gain of 1.34%, or 225.49 points. The Nifty finished 1.50% up, and the CNX Midcap Index gained 1.83%. Mahindra & Mahindra was the biggest winner among the index stocks with a 7.0% gain. The other index stocks to go up included Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, DLF and Reliance Infrastructure with gains between 7% and 4.7%.

Cipla was the biggest loser among the index stocks with a 8.4% fall. The other index stocks to go down included Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications, Sterlite Industries and Tata Steel with losses falling between 8.1% and 1.8%.

Bajaj FinServ was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 35% gain. The other non-index stocks to go up included Aqua Logistics, Mundra Port, Axis Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Rural Electrification, Talwalkars Better Value Fitness and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories with gains between 13.4% and 7%.

Aban Offshore was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 17.7% loss. The other non-index stocks to go down included Engineers India, Kemrock Industries, Idea Cellular, Reliance Natural Resources, Piramal Healthcare, GMR Infrastructure and Jubilant FoodWorks with losses falling between 15.4% and 5.6%.

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INTERMEDIATE TREND:

The market’s intermediate trend is still down, but could turn up if there is a decent rally early this week.

However, the odds would recede if the decline persists, and the indices go below their recent lows (16,684 for the Sensex). The Sensex would need to go above 17,400 for an intermediate uptrend. The corresponding figure is 5,225 for the nifty and 7,975 for the CNX Midcap index. (Figures rounded up to the nearest 25).

LONG-TERM TREND:

Our market’s long-term trend is up, as the indices made new bull market highs during the preceding intermediate uptrend. However, about 15% of the more heavily traded stocks are in major downtrends, and more are entering one during this decline.

The Sensex would enter a bear market if it falls below 15,300, the Nifty under 4,500, and the CNX Midcap below 6,350. Most global markets are also in major uptrends at this time. The lower of the past two intermediate bottoms for the indices has been taken as the bear market trigger, as they are very close to each other.

TRADING & INVESTING

STRATEGIES:

Increasing portfolio exposure should be avoided for now, as the bull market has run for over two years, making this a little too late to get in. If cash must be invested, wait for this intermediate downtrend to end. It would be a good move to keep portfolios defensive by switching out of highly volatile sectors such as sugar, real estate, construction, airlines, financial services and even metals, even though some of these stocks had done well in the past rally.

MOre @ Sensex below 15,300 would enter bear market

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IDBI Mutual Fund poised to carve a distinct path
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Canara Robeco tops performance chart of MF schemes
17 May 2010, 0437 hrs IST, BAKUL CHUGAN TONGIA

With markets having recovered from the meltdown, equity mutual fund schemes have not disappointed either. ET Intelligence Group cracks down the performance report of MF schemes

Investors can now apply to new fund offers
17 May 2010, 0436 hrs IST, BAKUL CHUGAN TONGIA

Mutual Fund investors can now apply to the new fund offers (NFOs) of MF schemes not only by drawing a cheque/demand draft, but also through ASBA facility.

Canara Robeco emerging as the best fund house
17 May 2010, 0436 hrs IST, Bakul Chugan Tongia

If Canara Robeco continues to maintain its current pace, it will not be long to see it move further up from an emerging one to the best fund house.

Are MFs just about short term investing?
17 May 2010, 0436 hrs IST, Bakul Chugan Tongia

While MFs provide an easy exit route to investors, an early exit from Ulips is nothing less than suicidal, making them suitable for long term.

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DLF

Aban Offshore

Jubilant Organosys

Piramal Healthcare

Src: Economictimes, Dp blog

India's Top 100 CEOs

India's Top 100 CEOs

Name	Company/Group	Rank
		2010	2009
Ratan Tata	Tata Sons	1	1
Mukesh Ambani	Reliance Industries	2	2
NR Narayana Murthy	Infosys Technologies	3	3
Anil Ambani	Reliance ADAG	4	4
Sunil Mittal	Bharti Group	5	9
Azim Hasham Premji	Wipro	6	10
Kumar Mangalam Birla	AV Birla Group	7	11
Rahul Bajaj	Bajaj Auto	8	19
Anand G Mahindra	Mahindra & Mahindra	9	13
Vijay Mallya	UB Group	10	6
S Gopalakrishnan	Infosys Technologies	11	12
OP Bhatt	State Bank of India	12	17
Chanda Kochhar	ICICI bank	13	14
Vinita Bali	Britannia	14	NA
Venu Srinivasan	TVS Motors	15	26
Shiv Nadar	HCL Technologies	16	25
Uday Kotak	Kotak Mahindra	17	35
Harsh Goenka	RPG	18	42
A B Godrej	Godrej Group	19	27
Shashikant N Ruia	Essar Group	20	38
AM Naik	L&T	21	15
Ravikant N Ruia	Essar Group	22	NA
T S Vijayan	LIC	23	33
Aditya Puri	HDFC Bank	24	22
Kishore Biyani	Future Group	25	24

More @ India's Top 100 CEOs

TCS, Bharti among world's most sustainable cos

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It's advantage bears below 5,130

After a hectic trading week, the markets ended with gains, despite the near 300-point fall in the Sensex on Friday. The BSE benchmark index rallied to a high of 17,389, but closed the week with a gain of 225 points at 16,995.

Among index stocks, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors rallied 7 per cent each to Rs 523 and Rs 763, respectively. HDFC Bank, DLF, Reliance Infrastructure, Wipro, ICICI Bank and Tata Power were the other major gainers. Cipla and Bharti Airtel tumbled over 8 per cent each to Rs 313 and Rs 264, respectively. Reliance Communications, with a fall of 5.5 per cent, was the other major loser.

The markets' failure to sustain at higher levels is a sign of concern, and with every passing day it seems the bears are tightening their grip. For the moment, it looks like the bears will continue to have the upper hand as long as the Sensex stays below 17,080.

On the downside, the Sensex may revisit its recent low of 16,700, and has an outside chance of dropping all the way to 15,400 in case of extremely negative global factors. Next week, the Sensex is likely to face resistance around 17,220-17,290-17,360 and get support around 16,770-16,700-16,630.

The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 186 points — from a low of 5,027, the index surged to a high of 5,213, but finally settled with a gain of 75 points at 5,094.

The corresponding pivot level for the Nifty is 5,130. It will be advantage bears as long as the index stays below 5,130. Above this, the index may face resistance around 5,185-5,210. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 5,020-5,000-4,980.

The medium-term (50-days) moving average of the Nifty has now crossed its short-term (20-days) moving average, which suggests bearishness in the short term and a neutral trend in the medium to long term. The medium-term moving average is 5,219 and the short-term moving average is 5,200.

The momentum indicators, MACD, Directional index and Stochastic slow, are in sell mode. However, the strength of the directional index is below 30 per cent, which suggests the trend is rather weak. Hence, there could be whipsawn movements till we get a clear indication.

Global cues to decide Dalal Street's course: Analysts

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Index Snapshot: Sensex rally loses steam
The whopping $1-trillion emergency bailout fund agreed by European leaders in the early hours of Monday had a cascading effect on the global markets from Japan's Nikkei 225 index to Brazil's Bovespa, leading a spectacular rally in ...

STOCKS: Kotak Mahindra Bank: Buy
Fresh investments can be considered in the Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) stock. Even as the bank closed 2009-10 with a doubling of its net profits, it is likely to sustain high earnings growth over the medium term due to strong advances growth, ...

STOCKS: Cairn India: Buy
Cairn India (Cairn) is a good prospect for investors with a medium-term perspective and high-risk appetite. The company is a promising play on the hydrocarbon exploration and production sector in India, with reserves higher than ...

STOCKS: Geometric: Buy
Investors with a two-year horizon can consider taking exposure to the stock of Geometric, a software and engineering services provider, considering the improvement in the outsourcing budgets in key client segments such as automotive and ...

STOCKS: Coromandel International: Buy
Despite a more than four-fold gain from its 2009 lows, the stock of Coromandel International (Coromandel) remains a good exposure for investors with a ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 1,043.5)
Following a bright start with a 4.5 per cent gain on Monday, the stock began to waver, encountering resistance at Rs 1,090 mid- week. On Friday, it declined 2.6 per cent, which penetrated its 50-day moving average firmly. However, the stock ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Query corner: Reliance Capital slipping to support level
I purchased Reliance Capital at Rs 926. It has been falling ever since. Shall I book loss? I can hold the stock longer if there is any hope. ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Consider shorting Cairn India, Ashok Leyland
Cairn India (Rs 292.45): After touching its 52-week high at Rs 321 in April end, the stock has been on a downtrend since then. The outlook appears negative as long as Cairn India stays below ...

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Sizzling Stocks: Aban Offshore (Rs 831.2)
Aban Offshore tumbled 20 per cent intra-day on May 14 following its announcement that Aban Pearl, a semi-submersible ship of its subsidiary reportedly sank. The volume traded was extraordinary on Friday. The stock started the week on a ...


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Weekly Technicals - May 15 2010

Ess Dee Aluminium

Hindalco, Ranbaxy

Jubilant Foodworks

Gas Sector

Educomp Solutions Ltd

Weekly Watch - May 15 2010

Dish TV

Cipla Ltd

Hindustan Unilever

Crompton Greaves

Kewal Kiran Clothing

Graphite India

Aban Offshore

src: Economictimes, Smartinvestor.in, DP blog and etc